Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: 46162 October 2013

Regional: Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific (Financed by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction)

Prepared by Doug Ramsay, Caroline van Halderen, and Rob Bell

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Limited Auckland, New Zealand

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.

Contents

Executive summary ...... 6

1
Introduction ...... 9
1.1
Project overview ...... 9
1.2
Scope of the inception report ...... 10
1.3
Inception activities ...... 10
1.4
Inception visits and consultations ...... 11
1.5
Case study selection ...... 12

2
Urban development context in the Pacific Islands region ...... 14
2.1
Key literature and current initiatives ...... 14
2.2
Natural disaster and climate change exposure of urban areas ...... 15
2.3
Urban populations and areas ...... 16
2.4
Urban planning challenges ...... 18
2.5
Urban planning governance arrangements ...... 19
2.6
Overview of urban planning challenges and frameworks in the demonstration areas ...... 23

3
Available information to support risk-based urban management decision- making in Pacific Islands ...... 26
3.1
Introduction ...... 26
3.2
Data Contained in PacRIS ...... 28
3.3
Other relevant hazard and climate change-related information ...... 35
3.4
Risk Screening and Decision-making tools ...... 39

4
Framework and methodology for informing risk-based urban development planning ...... 46
4.1
Introduction ...... 46
4.2
Demonstration study component ...... 47
4.3
Capacity building and awareness component ...... 52

5
Technical Assistance implementation, proposed workplan and timelines ...... 55
5.1
Introduction ...... 55
5.2
Counterpart staff ...... 55
5.3
Logistical arrangements ...... 56
5.4
Personnel schedule ...... 56

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

5.5
Work plan and milestones ...... 56

6
Conclusions ...... 59

7
Acknowledgements ...... 61

8
References ...... 62
8.1
Citations in Report ...... 62
8.2
Bibliography (general and individual countries) ...... 64

Appendix A
Project terms of reference ...... 71

Appendix B
In-country consultations held ...... 77

Appendix C
Initial summary of currently identified country-relevant information ...... 79

Tables Table 1:
Summary of selection criteria for the two demonstration urban areas. 12
Table 2:
Recent and current regional urban planning related initiatives. 14
Table 3:
Summary of potential natural hazard exposure of the main urban areas in selected Pacific Islands. 16
Table 4:
Summary of selected Pacific Country total and urban populations and current growth estimates. 17
Table 5:
Summary of key urban planning challenges facing Pacific Island countries. 18
Table 6:
Overview of legislative, governance and policy availability in each of the six Pacific Island countries. 21
Table 7:
Initial assessment of availability of planning legislation, policies and plans for the six countries. 21
Table 8:
Summary of GIS hazard layers available in PacRIS. 29
Table 9:
Summary of spatial aggregation units used in PCRAFI to present loss information in each of the six countries involved in this current project. 34
Table 10:
Summary of the availability and applicability of PCRAFI datasets for local urban and infrastructure decision-making. 35
Table 11:
Summary of identified spatial hazard (weather and coastal-related) information for the six Pacific Island countries involved in this project. 36
Table 12:
Summary of the availability of relevant datasets for key urban areas in the six Pacific Island countries. 38
Table 13:
Climate and disaster risk management framework and tool types by function. 40
Table 14:
Some generic examples of tools or methodologies that support various steps in a risk-based planning framework. 40
Table 15:
Summary of main characteristics of a hierarchy of increasingly more comprehensive or effective risk-assessment and analysis frameworks to inform decision making on hazard and climate-change risk-reduction for urban planning. 42

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Table 16:
Outline of implementation activities and proposed work streams for the demonstration component. 50
Table 17:
Summary of existing disaster-related training courses coordinated by the Disaster Programme at SPC-SOPAC. 52
Table 18:
Summary of key milestones. 56

Figures Figure 1:
Land use zones defined in the sustainable management plan for Vaitele, Apia, Samoa (PUMA, 2012). 25
Figure 2:
Flood and landslide hazard map for Guadalcanal in Solomon Islands. 27
Figure 3:
Example of wind hazard information available for Fiji. 30
Figure 4:
Comparison between the SRTM topography used in PCRAFI activities (left) with the recently-collected May 2012 LiDAR dataset (right) for Nadi Basin. 30
Figure 5:
Examples of spatial representation of risk information in the country profile for Fiji. 32
Figure 6:
Boundaries of enumeration areas (yellow) and Tikina area (red) for the Nadi region. 34
Figure 7:
Availability of LiDAR survey data in Samoa. 39
Figure 8:
Risk assessment and management approach (CHARM). 41
Figure 9:
Planning for Climate Change – planning framework. 43
Figure 10:
The 5 trays (or steps) in the Urban Impacts Toolbox. 44
Figure 11:
Schematic of core framework for the RiskScape system. 45
Figure 12:
Overview of the project work flow. 46
Figure 13:
Proposed framework and methodology for urban development planning. 48
Figure 14:
Revised project implementation work plan. 58

Reviewed by Approved for release by

T. Hume D. Roper

Formatting checked by

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 5

Executive summary The Strengthening Disaster and Climate Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific project aims to promote the use of available data, tools and information, including data developed under the Pacific Catastrophic Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI), to effectively address natural disaster and climate change risks in urban planning and development in Pacific DMCs.

The project covers six Pacific countries (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu). An urban area from two of these countries (Apia–Samoa and Nadi– Fiji) have been selected as case studies to develop and demonstrate suitable urban development planning approaches with training and awareness of these urban development planning approaches conducted in the other four countries.

The project technical assistance is being provided by a team from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), MWH Ltd and Enveco Ltd, working in collaboration with staff from the Disaster Risk Program of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community Applied Science and Technology Division (SPC-SOPAC).

The key objectives are:

Develop a risk-based framework to support and inform urban planning and development within Pacific Island countries.

Demonstrate the application of the framework through case studies for two urban areas (Apia and Nadi) using existing information.

Develop a training module to enable implementation of the urban planning framework, that will be incorporated in to the current Disaster Risk Management regional training programme coordinated by SPC-SOPAC.

Demonstrate the need for mainstreaming effective risk-based planning decision- making by raising awareness and building capacity within Pacific policymakers, NGO’s and development partners active in the Pacific region.

This report summarises the inception activities conducted as part of the initial implementation of the project.

The inception activities identified that there are sufficient datasets available to adequately demonstrate how different levels of natural hazard, risk and supporting information can be incorporated in to urban and infrastructure planning and decision-making for the two demonstration sites. In reviewing the available PCRAFI datasets, the regional nature of the study and resulting outputs means that great care needs to be taken in the use and application of the datasets for localised decision-making. This has resulted in datasets that would have been applicable for more localised decision-making either not being included in the outputs or in a form that is not appropriate. Specifically:

Key hazard datasets (notably tsunami, flood and storm surge inundation layers) are not available.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 6

Derived risk datasets have been aggregated to a coarse spatial level for each country (essentially district levels). This spatial scale is generally much larger than most urban areas and substantially reduces the usefulness of the risk datasets for urban and local land use, infrastructure or other localised decision- making.

Results for the risk assessments have been combined for multiple hazards and associated loss data for: 1) earthquakes and tsunami collectively, and 2) cyclone wind, storm surge and flood inundation collectively. Again this aggregation for multiple hazards substantially reduces the effectiveness of the risk information for localised decision-making, as different planning approaches are used to mitigate or reduce different types of hazard (e.g., wind versus inundation hazards).

The risk-based approach adopted by PCRAFI does have substantial applicability, and provides a framework for developing suitable approaches for informing and supporting more robust urban planning decision-making.

Both demonstration urban areas and countries have a range of existing and proposed urban related legislation, policy and plans that offer good opportunities to test out the standard planning methodology and approach for incorporating natural disaster and climate change risk considerations in urban development.

The inception activities also reviewed and developed the logistical arrangements for implementing the project:

No changes are envisaged in the personnel agreed during contract negotiations with ADB. Some minor readjustments of the relative time contributions of the team members may be required depending on the particular circumstances in each of the two demonstration studies and this will be monitored and revised if necessary during the course of the assignment.

It is still anticipated that all significant components of the project will be completed by 20 May 2015. The only exception to this may be the awareness raising activities associated with presentations or side events at relevant regional fora. This will depend on the timing of these events (many of which tend to be held in the third or early fourth quarter of each calendar year).

The two demonstration study sites have been identified (Nadi in Fiji, and Apia in Samoa) and agreed on with the two central planning agencies in both countries. Some further discussions still need to be held with the Nadi Town Council and Commissioner, Western Division Office in Fiji to further discuss the practical aspects of their involvement and implementation of the project.

The TA project team are reluctant to start in-country aspects of the demonstration activities until the contract between ADB and SPC-SOPAC has been finalised and SPC-SOPAC have agreed and recruited the two in-country liaison officers in the counterpart planning agencies in Samoa and Fiji. It is anticipated that these activities will be concluded shortly but if this has not been organised by 30 November 2013 this will impact on potential delivery of the

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 7

demonstration aspect. This will particularly be the case for Samoa where there is a desire to complete the activities before the middle part of next year when efforts related to the organisation of the Small Islands Development States conference in September will consume much Government staff time.

8 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

1 Introduction

1.1 Project overview The Asian Development Bank (ADB) Strengthening Disaster and Climate Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific project aims to promote the use of available data, tools and information, including data developed under the Pacific Catastrophic Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI), to effectively address natural disaster and climate change risks in urban planning and development in Pacific Developing Member Countries.

The project covers six Pacific countries (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu). An urban area from two of these countries have been selected as case studies to develop and demonstrate suitable urban development planning approaches with training and awareness of these approaches conducted in the other four countries. The project technical assistance is being provided by a team from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), MWH Ltd and Enveco Ltd working in collaboration with staff from the Disaster Risk Program of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community Applied Science and Technology Division (SPC-SOPAC).

The project aims to:

Develop pragmatic but technically robust risk-based methodologies to support and inform urban planning and development that can be replicated in other Pacific Islands that recognises the typical types of information available and capacities within Pacific Island countries.

Demonstrate, through building in-country capacity in relevant government departments in two pilot countries, how existing available information datasets can be brought together to underpin and support risk-based land use and development planning.

Develop a training manual to enable the methodologies developed for integrating disaster and climate risk in to land use and urban planning, and infrastructure and development investment to be incorporated in to the current Disaster Risk Management regional training programme coordinated by SPC- SOPAC.

Raise awareness of the need for effective risk-based planning decision-making within Pacific policymakers, NGO’s and development partners active in the Pacific region.

Full details of the project terms of reference for the technical assistance are contained in Appendix A.

This report summarises the inception activities conducted as part of the initial implementation of the project.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 9

1.2 Scope of the inception report This report describes the progress of work conducted during the inception phase of the project. It includes:

An overview of inception activities and selection of the two demonstration urban areas in the remainder of this chapter.

An overview of key urban development challenges in the Pacific region, (Chapter 2).

A summary of available information and resources to support risk-based urban management decision-making in Pacific Islands, (Chapter 3).

An overview of the framework and methodology for informing risk-based urban development planning and initial draft outline of the proposed training course to be developed as part of the project, (Chapter 4).

Updated information on the project implementation, work plan and timelines, (Chapter 5).

Appendices include the terms of reference for the project, a summary of consultations held during the inception activities in Fiji and Samoa, and summary urban planning-related information for each of the six Pacific countries involved in the project.

1.3 Inception activities The project commenced on the 12 August 2013 and inception activities carried out over the period of 19 August 2013 to 4 October 2013. During this time the main activities have involved:

Establishment of the relevant internal financial and administrative arrangements for management of the project.

Sub-contracting one of the project partners (MWH) to be involved in the inception activities.

Two week inception visit to Fiji and one week visit to Samoa.

Initial identification of relevant data held within SPC-SOPAC and within Government Departments primarily in Samoa and Fiji, but also in general in the four countries involved in the project.

Identification and subsequent agreement (ADB, SPC-SOPAC and key in- country Ministries) of Nadi (Fiji) and Apia (Samoa) as the two demonstration sites for the project.

Collation of key datasets held at SPC-SOPAC of relevance to the project.

Review and assessment of the urban development context in Pacific islands and of available risk-based assessment frameworks for building resilience to natural disasters and climate change risk within urban and land use planning.

10 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

1.4 Inception visits and consultations The inception visit to Fiji was conducted during the weeks of 19-30 August 2013. The inception visit team consisted of Mr Doug Ramsay (Team Leader / Risk Specialist, NIWA), Ms Caroline van Halderen (Urban Planner, MWH) and Dr Rob Bell (Civil Engineer / Risk Specialist, NIWA). The team travelled from New Zealand to Suva on Monday 19 August. Ms van Halderen and Dr Bell returned to Nadi on the evening of Friday 23 August and took the opportunity on Saturday 24 August to carry out a familiarisation visit around Nadi town and surrounding area (focussing on the areas damaged during the 2012 flood) before returning to New Zealand on Sunday 25 August. Mr Ramsay conducted further inception activities associated with the project in Fiji over the week of 26-29 August, returning to New Zealand on the 30th August. He was also in Samoa during the week of the 16-21 September on other commitments but had the opportunity over two days to meet a number of the key Samoa Government partners to further discuss the project.

A summary of the activities conducted and meetings held during the inception visit are summarised in Appendix B.

The purpose of the Fiji inception visit was to:

1. Discuss and confirm with ADB and SPC-SOPAC the scope of the project, logistical arrangements, timeframes and identify and agree on the two potential demonstration sites.

2. Identify and where possible collate, all information held by SPC-SOPAC of potential relevance to the project. This included all available PCRAFI datasets held by SPC-SOPAC.

3. With the identification of Nadi as one of the potential demonstration sites, meet and discuss the project with key stakeholders (primarily the Department of Town Planning of the Ministry of Local Government, Urban Development, Housing and Environment, and the Fiji Land Information staff of the Ministry of Lands. The opportunity was taken to also identify existing planning legislation, planning documents and processes and other relevant information held within these departments.

4. Meet with other regional stakeholders with a focus on urban planning (primarily UN-Habitat) to discuss and identify other relevant projects and initiatives in the six Pacific countries.

5. Discuss and develop with the Senior Adviser, Disaster Risk Management Training and Capacity Building at SPC-SOPAC a draft outline of a potential training course (Strengthening risk-based urban development planning).

6. Hold a joint teleconference (ADB, NIWA, SPC-SOPAC, UN-Habitat) with the Assistant Chief Executive Officer of the Planning and Urban Management Unit (PUMA) of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE) in Samoa to discuss the project and the inclusion of Apia as the second demonstration site.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 11

In Samoa the opportunity was taken to:

Meet with PUMA senior staff to further discuss the project, identify and collate relevant in-country information, and to discuss logistical aspects of implementing the project.

Discuss the project with the Assistant CEO of the National Disaster Management Office and key members of the Risk Reduction team.

The opportunity was also taken to meet and discuss the project with the Acting Permanent Secretary, Mr Saverio Baleikanacea, of the Ministry of Local Government, Urban Development, Housing and Environment in Fiji, who was also visiting Samoa at the time of the visit.

1.5 Case study selection During the inception visit to Fiji, discussions were held with ADB and SPC-SOPAC to identify two potential urban areas in the six countries as case study locations. Considerations for these case studies included in-country planning capacity, institutional arrangements, nature of the urban planning challenges being faced, natural hazard exposure and the availability of existing hazard and other relevant data.

Nadi in Fiji and Apia in Samoa were identified as two potential locations and subsequently selected following discussions and agreement with key Government Ministries, the Ministry of Local Government, Urban Development, Housing and Environment (MLGUDHE) in Fiji and the Planning and Urban Management Unit (PUMA) of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE) in Samoa (Table 1).

Table 1: Summary of selection criteria for the two demonstration urban areas.

Criteria Fiji Samoa Institutional Three levels: Central Government: Single level: Central Government arrangements Ministry of Local Government, Urban (PUMA). development, Housing and Environment (MLGUDHE). Provincial Government (Western Division). Town Council (Nadi Town Council). Planning capacity MLGUDHE: Strategic Planning, Urban - Department of Local Government: Management and Sustainable manages the development of Fiji's twelve Development Divisions within PUMA. municipal local governments through the Planning and Urban Management local government Act. Board and Planning Tribunal. - Department of Town and Country Planning: control and regulate the appropriate use of land in Fiji through the Town Planning Act and Subdivision of Land Act. - Squatter Resettlement Unit - undertakes squatter upgrading projects. Building and Planning Department within Nadi Town Council.

12 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Criteria Fiji Samoa Nature of urban Informal settlements. Rapid development, urban and peri- planning challenges Rapid development, urban and peri- urban expansion. faced. urban expansion. Planning controls within traditional Tourism development. villages. Limited planning capacity in Town Council. Planning controls within traditional villages. Main natural hazard Cyclones and low depression storms Cyclones (wind, extreme rainfall, river exposure. (wind, extreme rainfall, river and storm and storm surge flooding), landslide, surge flooding), tsunami, drought. earthquake, tsunami, drought. Availability of existing PCRAFI Hazard data. PCRAFI Hazard data. hazard information and PCRAFI asset dataset. PCRAFI asset data. other relevant data. LiDAR topography data. LiDAR topography data (not yet Recent satellite imagery available. available). Past cyclone flood extend and depth Recent satellite imagery available information. Past probabilistic flood modelling data Detailed probabilistic flood and storm for the Vaisigano River. surge modelling (both currently being conducted).

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 13

2 Urban development context in the Pacific Islands region

2.1 Key literature and current initiatives A considerably body of literature is available that characterises the urban development challenges generally and the specific issues facing Pacific islands. The following publications provide a current overview of these challenges for the region and have been a key sources of background information during the inception activities:

The State of Pacific Towns and Cities. Urbanisation in ADB’s Pacific developing member countries (ADB, 2012).

Urban Hymns. Managing Urban Growth (Pacific Institute of Public Policy, 2011).

UN-Habitat Rapid Urban Sector Profiling for Sustainability series of reports currently covering Fiji (Nadi), Solomon Islands (Honiara, Gizo, Auki), and PNG (Port Moresby, Goroka, Kokopa), (UNHabitat, 2010, 2012).

Some of the key regional initiatives that are supporting urban-related development activities are also summarised in Table 2. Much of the support to Pacific Island Countries for sustainable urbanisation is led by UN-HABITAT and UN-ESCAP

Table 2: Recent and current regional urban planning related initiatives.

Initiative Overview Pacific involvement UN-HABITAT/UNEP Goal of ensuring environmentally sustainable local PNG (Port Moresby, Sustainable Cities development fully realises the vital contributions that Goroka, Kokopo). Programme. urban areas make to overall social and economic development. SCP promotes good environmental governance at all levels to support local and national partners adopt environmental planning management (EPM) processes and integrate good practice into national policy and legal frameworks. UN-HABITAT Urban Designed to strengthen the capacity of urban local and Samoa. Management national governments to enhance the contribution that Programme (City cities and towns make toward poverty reduction, the Development improvement of environmental conditions and local Strategy). governance, and the management of economic growth. Cities Alliance – Cities Global partnership for urban poverty reduction and the PNG, Samoa, Fiji, without slums. promotion of the role of cities in sustainable Kiribati. development through: • Developing and/or enhancing national policy frameworks to address urban development needs. • Developing and implementing local inclusive strategies and plans. • Strengthening the capacity of cities to provide improved services to the urban poor. • Developing mechanisms to engage citizens in city or urban governance.

14 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Initiative Overview Pacific involvement UN-HABITAT: Urban Provides direct support to assist the Office of PNG (Port Moresby, Governance Support Urbanisation develop and implement the Government's Goroka, Kokopo). Programme. emerging National Urbanisation Policy to better respond to the pressing needs of cities and towns by assisting Port Moresby, Goroka and Kokopo local governments in the day-to-day business of governing and managing urban development, and strengthening their capacity to work with, and support, the urban poor through the provision of basic urban services and sustainable shelter upgrading. UN-HABITAT: Cities Supports local governments to more readily respond to PNG (Port Moresby), and Climate Change the climatic threats faced by cities and their populations Vanuatu (Port Vila), Initiative. (building Climate Resilience). It further aims to take Solomon Islands steps in reducing cities’ climate footprint (Climate (Honiara), Fiji (Lami, Change Mitigation). Lautoka, Nadi, Sigatoka), Samoa (Apia). Pacific Regional Coordinated approach from 6 donors to infrastructure Cook Islands, Federated Infrastructure Facility. planning and development through harmonised support States of Micronesia, and improved project prioritisation in the following Kiribati, Nauru, Niue, infrastructure sectors: Energy, telecommunications, Palau, Republic of the transport, water, sanitation and solid waste Marshall Islands, Samoa, management. Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu.

The remainder of this section provides a brief summary of these current issues in relation to the six countries involved in this project, with specific reference to the two demonstration sites of Nadi and Apia.

2.2 Natural disaster and climate change exposure of urban areas The Pacific region is one of the most disaster prone regions on earth. All Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are exposed to a range of natural hazards that include cyclones, extreme rainfall events, floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions (Table 3).

The Pacific Catastrophic Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) estimated that from 1950 natural hazard events have affected approximately 9.2 million people in the Pacific region, caused damage of around US$3.2 billion and resulted in 9,811 deaths. From cyclones, earthquakes and tsunamis alone the average annual direct losses caused by natural disasters in the PICs is estimated at US$284 million. Direct costs due to damage to buildings and critical infrastructure in urban areas will make up a substantial proportion of these losses. Such losses from major hazard events can impact on an entire country (or countries) and can severely hinder long-term development progress.

In urban, and indeed many rural, areas throughout the Pacific, the effects of climate change are likely to be felt first (and possibly most significantly) through increasing exposure to changes in episodic weather extremes and climate variability, particularly:

High tide inundation of low-lying coastal communities due to higher sea-levels.

Storm related inundation of coastal communities and shoreline change due to changes in the pattern, frequency and intensity of cyclone events combined with higher sea levels.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 15

Surface flooding including reduced performance of surface and storm water drainage and sewerage systems in low-lying urban areas due to higher intensity / long duration rainfall events, either directly, or on high islands, due to stream and river inundation. Such events may/may not occur at times of tropical cyclones. If they do, then the joint combination of coastal- and rainfall-related inundation may significantly compound flooding effects in coastal areas.

Water resource impacts due to drought as a result of longer periods without precipitation but with increased evapotranspiration at higher temperatures. This may be exacerbated in some low-lying areas by either salinisation of groundwaters or more frequent inundation over overwashing waves, as sea levels rise.

Table 3: Summary of potential natural hazard exposure of the main urban areas in selected Pacific Islands. Red = urban areas are highly exposed, orange = moderately exposed, green = some exposure but generally low, white = not applicable.

Country Cyclone Coastal River Tsunami Earthquake Land- Drought Volcanic Flooding Flooding slides eruptions Cook Islands Federated States of Micronesia Fiji Kiribati Marshall Islands Nauru Niue Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Tokelau Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu

2.3 Urban populations and areas Approximately 2.4 million people live in urban areas in the Pacific Islands regions. In many parts of the Pacific, particularly Melanesia, annual urban population growth rates of 3 to 4% mean urban populations double in number every 15 to 25 years, with growth rates significantly higher than the rate of national populations (Table 4).

16 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Continued urban expansion is going to be a key feature of virtually all Pacific nations over the foreseeable future, primarily due to high rural to urban migration, a young population and high fertility levels.

Table 4: Summary of selected Pacific Country total and urban populations and current growth estimates. Source: Secretariat of the Pacific Community Pacific Island population estimates and projections, September 2013.

Country Estimated Annual Estimated mid- % urban % annual urban mid-2013 growth 2030 population at population growth population rate (%) population last census rate Cook Islands 15,154 0.5 16,027 74 2.6 Federated States 102,952 0.0 97,858 22 -2.2 of Micronesia Fiji 859,178 0.5 936,211 51 1.5 Kiribati 108,840 2.1 149,846 54 1.9 Marshall Islands 54,166 0.8 58,745 74 1.6 Nauru 10,482 1.7 13,718 100 -2.1 Niue 1,535 -2.4 1,283 - - Palau 17,774 0.5 18,606 77 0.0 Papua New 7,854,416 2.2 11,084,083 13 2.8 Guinea Samoa 187,430 0.0 191,119 20 -0.6 Solomon Islands 610,790 2.5 912,439 20 4.7 Tokelau 1,176 -0.9 1,042 - - Tonga 103,311 0.1 105,892 23 0.5 Tuvalu 10,922 1.6 14,446 47 1.4 Vanuatu 264,654 2.5 370,386 24 3.5

Most urban areas in the Pacific region and associated critical infrastructure are located in low-lying coastal and or river flood plain areas. Critical infrastructure such as roads, water and wastewater treatment plants, power plants, telecommunication systems, fuel depots, hospitals, schools social/community services, tourism facilities and airports which tend to be concentrated in or close to urban areas are vulnerable to natural disasters. The economic and social costs of damage can be extremely high (the areas of highest average annual loss in each country assessed by PCRAFI tend to be in urban areas, for example for Fiji (see Figure 5 below) the Suva, Nadi-Lautoka and Labasa areas) and the high concentrations of population in urban areas make these areas particularly vulnerable.

Over the last few decades increase in hazard exposure has been rapidly increasing in many urban areas in the Pacific. Population pressures, and available land for development has resulted in development and associated infrastructure increasingly spreading into areas that are exposed to natural hazard impacts. Where vulnerability, for example to inundation- related hazards has substantially increased in recent decades, it is in many cases due to human-related land modification and development changes that are fundamental in driving this increasing vulnerability rather than changes in the hazard characteristics, for example due to climate change and sea-level rise.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 17

Of particular significance is the rise in informal settlements where communities are particularly vulnerable given the high levels of poverty, buildings are often poorly constructed, and security of land tenure can often be uncertain. These generally tend to be unplanned settlements in villages and areas where housing is not in compliance with current planning and building regulations, and often considered to be unauthorized housing.

2.4 Urban planning challenges There are few sound examples of integrated risk-based urban development and management in the Pacific with the development challenges facing most island nations only beginning to become apparent. Availability of developable and ‘safe’ land and improving resilience levels of infrastructure and services are two of the major challenges facing urban planning. Urban areas are where the largest exposure to the effects of natural hazards tend to be concentrated and also where some of the most significant vulnerabilities reside. Risk- informed urban planning will need to play a critical role in in managing disaster and climate change impacts given that well planned urban areas are more adaptive and resilient to the negative impacts of climate change, than unplanned and poorly managed urban areas.

The following table summarises the key urban planning challenges face Pacific Island countries.

Table 5: Summary of key urban planning challenges facing Pacific Island countries.

Areas of urban Specific issues planning challenge Growth management
Integrating urban development issues into the development of regions - linking spatial and economic development policy.
Integrating disaster/climate risk assessment into land use and planning.
Challenge of collectively tackling climate change and population migration which are closely linked to urban issues.
Inadequate consideration of climate change issues into land use planning, urban and rural planning, coastal zone planning and infrastructure development plans.
Increase in population through natural growth and/or migration of people - from rural to urban areas; from within the urban area or from outer islands.
Continued pressure on the resources of urban areas due to population growth.
Unemployment, particularly among young people.
Villages are growing rapidly in the urban hinterland with many expanded to the urban/rural boundaries.
Growth of informal settlements and extreme poverty.
Missed opportunities to achieve economic growth and opportunities for mobilizing the skilled population and business communities (partnerships).
Poor access to land, housing with inadequate amenities, declining health and water sanitation, inadequate urban infrastructure (roads, sewerage, poor built environment), flooding, poor drainage, solid waste management concerns and extensive environmental degradation from human activities.

18 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Areas of urban Specific issues planning challenge Sustainable urban
Curbing growth in energy demand and achieving energy efficiency by meeting development energy needs through low carbon options.
Congestion, safety and air quality issues associated with transport as urban areas grow.
Requirements in construction aimed at mitigating climate change meant that the needs of the poor in housing and construction were unaffordable.
Impacts of urban development on the environment, environmental degradation – insensitive land use planning.
Deteriorating urban environment which reduces the quality of life.
Fragmented patterns of urban development as a result of land tenure and ownership systems leading to the lack of integration and high servicing costs.
Uncontrolled pollution, erosion, sedimentation and flooding have implications on biodiversity, loss of habitats and vulnerability of cultural and ecological sites. Institutional framework
Lack of a holistic approach involving all elements and structures of governance, including local authorities, non-government stakeholders, civil society, donors and public private partnerships.
Lack of capacity among Government agencies to enforce relevant legislations.
Lack of clear roles and responsibilities between various agencies.
Poorly managed urban growth and lack of appropriate strategies – uncertainty in planning processes.
Difference in focus at the municipal and national or global levels in matters of urban planning and management, with little focus on implementation and a lack of prioritization of basic infrastructure.
Many local authorities suffer from weak management and financial capacity to deliver services, lack of accountability to constituents and a lack of clear frameworks for regulation, such as town planning schemes.
Lack of attention paid to operation/management and maintenance of infrastructure.
Inability for local stakeholders to respond to urban development challenges. Human resource and
Insufficient allocation of investment to building capacity in local authority town training planning and building departments.
Loss of technical skills to other organisations (e.g., regional agencies) and through migration.

2.5 Urban planning governance arrangements The planning process guides the future development and use of land in cities, towns and rural areas. It is generally represented by a hierarchy of plans which describes the different types of plans, from broad to specific. The terminology used in the planning context varies from country to country and can often be quite loose, but typically the following terms are used:

Strategies - the long-term direction for policies and development plans.

Policies - the main planning considerations that the planning authority takes into account in assessing proposals for the various forms of development; and also often relevant to the preparation of development plans.

Development Plans - may be in the form of area plans, local plans or subject plans (i.e., village plans, spatial plans, master plans etc.). Development plans inform the general public, statutory authorities, developers and other interested

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 19

bodies of the policy framework and land use proposals that will be used to guide development decisions within their local area.

Plans can either be regulatory under the country’s existing planning legislation, or non- regulatory which would have a less formal role in the planning process. Acts, by-laws and zoning plans are examples of regulatory documents, whereas strategies, policies and plans can be a combination of regulatory and non-regulatory practices.

To illustrate the hierarchy of plans, Samoa, for example, has the National Infrastructure Strategic Plan (NISP) which outlines the Government’s priorities and strategic directions for major initiatives in the economic infrastructure sector over the next 5-10 years. It is shaped by the Strategy for the Development of Samoa 2008–2012 (SDS). Under the NISP initiatives include climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, to be formulated into a National Coastal Protection Strategy. The Apia Spatial Plan (ASP), which is currently being prepared, also ties in with the objectives of NISP. The ASP provides a high level strategic direction that will inform decision making, long term planning and the coordination of Apia city, linking to land use planning and how future infrastructure and services may be provided. Outcomes of the ASP will be to prepare a Zoning Plan, a Waterfront Development Plan at Matautu, a Master Plan for the Mulinuu Peninsula, and other more detailed development plans.

The institutional framework to undertake urban and infrastructure planning is reflected in legislation, governance and institutional capability, and urban policy:

Legislation is made up of planning codes such as Acts and Regulations, and other associated legislation.

Governance consists of decision-making or leadership processes and is reflected in institutional capability. This includes government departments, and national, regional and local authorities, as well as non- government organisations (NGOs).

Urban policy involves guidance on how to address urban development challenges and associated issues. Policy tends to be hierarchical ranging from national (high level) to local (more detailed).

The following table summarises the presence of known legislation, governance and policy arrangements in each of the six Pacific Developing Member Countries (DMC) to carry out urban and infrastructure planning. An overview of the key planning legislation and urban policies and plans for each country is summarised in Table 7. Further information on each of the six countries is provided in Appendix C.

20 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Table 6: Overview of legislative, governance and policy availability in each of the six Pacific Island countries.

Fiji Samoa Tonga Vanuatu Solomon Papua New Islands Guinea Legislation

National

















Governance arrangements

National

















Regional/Provincial


District /Local / City / Town

















Urban Policy

National

Regional/Provincial


District / Local / City / Town

Table 7: Initial assessment of availability of planning legislation, policies and plans for the six countries.

Planning legislation, policies and plans Status Country: Fiji Acts relating to Urban Planning Town and Country Planning Act Available Subdivision of Land Act Available Local Government Act Available Public Health Act Available Environment Management Act Available Natural Disaster Management Act Available Urban Policies and Plans National Housing Policy of Fiji (2011) Available Strategic Development Plan 2007 – 2011 Available Ministry of Local Government Urban Development Housing & Environment Available (LGUDHE), Annual Corporate Plan 2013 Nadi Town Sub-Regional Plan circa 1998, status not known Nadi Drainage Plan (2001) Available

Draft Nadi Integrated Basin Flood Management (IBFM) Plan (2013) Available Nadi Town Plan 2004 – reviewed every 5 years. To obtain copy Nadi Town Plan Boundary Expansion Being prepared Nadi Town 5-Year Strategic Plan 2010-2014 Being prepared Nadi Master Plan Being prepared

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 21

Planning legislation, policies and plans Status Village Plans Being prepared Western Corridor Plan Being prepared Country: Samoa Acts relating to Urban Planning Planning and Urban Management Act 2004 Available Land Surveys and Environment Act 1989 Available Disaster Management Act of 2007 Available Urban Policies and Plans Policy Paper on Draft National Urban Policy (2013) Available Strategy for the Development of Samoa 2008–2012 (SDS) Available National Infrastructure Strategic Plan (2011) Available National Policy Statement on Climate Change (2007) To obtain copy Samoa City Development Strategy (2012-2016) Available Draft Apia Spatial Plan Final due end of December 2013 (draft available) PUMA Planning Information Sheet – Development Consent Applications FAQ (May Available 2009) including Development Consent Flow Chart Housing Guideline, Planning Policy, PUMA (2006) Available Report on the Samoa National Building Code Promotion and Application (April 2009) Available Country: Tonga Acts relating to Urban Planning Draft National Spatial Planning and Management Act 2011 (NSPM) Pending in the legislature Environmental Impact Assessment Act 2003 Available Government Act (1988) including Village Regulations Available Land Act (1988) Available Urban Policies and Plans Urban Planning and Management System, Final Report. Section 5 - Urban Available Infrastructure Development Plan (UIDP) for Nuku’alofa Tonga National Infrastructure Investment Plan (TNIIP) Available Tonga Strategic Development Framework (TSDF) (2011-2014) Available Country: Vanuatu Acts relating to Urban Planning Physical Planning Act To be reviewed 2014 Foreshore Development Act To be reviewed 2013 Environmental Protection & Conservation Act No. 28 of 2010 Available Urban Land Act No. 23 of 1993 Available Urban Policies and Plans Draft development controls and zoning strategies for Port Vila, Luganville, Lenakel To obtain copies Draft National Land Sector Framework To obtain copy Vanuatu Infrastructure Masterplan – Development Framework (2001) Available

22 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Planning legislation, policies and plans Status Country: Solomon Islands Acts relating to Urban Planning Town and Country Planning Act [Cap 154] Available Honiara City Act, 1999 Available Urban Policies and Plans Honiara City Council building by-laws To obtain copy Country: Papua New Guinea Acts relating to Urban Planning Physical Planning Act, 1989 Available Informal Sector Act Available Disaster Management Act (Chapter 403) Available Urban Policies and Plans Draft National Capital District Urban Development Plan (2006-2015) To obtain copy National Urbanization Policy (2012) To obtain copy Medium Term Development Plan 2010-2030 To obtain copy

2.6 Overview of urban planning challenges and frameworks in the demonstration areas The two case studies chosen for the project are Nadi in Fiji and Apia in Samoa. These two urban areas represent challenges and opportunities that are representative of many of the issues facing urban areas in the Pacific. In both cases the urban areas have developed in hazard-prone areas and have generally not taken natural hazard or climate change risks into adequate account. Similarly, existing infrastructure has been located in areas that can be impacted by natural hazards (such as flooding) nor has it been designed, constructed or maintained to adequately cope with weather, climate and other hazard extremes that can occur.

2.6.1 Nadi Nadi is one of main points of entry to Fiji and the gateway to the tourist areas of the country. The town’s population was estimated to be approximately 22,000 (December 2011) and growth has resulted in urban pressure on prime agricultural lands that lie on the periphery of the Nadi Town boundary. This has requiring the need for boundary extensions and expansion of services, some of which (particularly water and sewage services) are currently struggling to cope with the population growth and demands from tourism development.

A comprehensive overview of Nadi is provided in the draft Nadi Urban Profile developed as part of the UN-Habitat Rapid Urban Sector Profiling for Sustainability (RUSPS) Programme (UN-HABITAT, 2013).Critical issues identified in the Nadi urban area include poor access to land, housing with inadequate amenities, declining health and water sanitation, inadequate urban infrastructure (roads, sewerage, poor built environment), flooding, poor drainage, solid waste management concerns and extensive environmental degradation from human activities (UN-HABITAT, 2013).

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 23

The urban and peri-urban area of Nadi experiences regular flood events due to heavy rainfall events in the Nadi catchment during tropical cyclones and depressions. Over the last 80 years the town of Nadi has been flooded more than 10 times (McGree et al. 2010) with the most recent event in early April 2012 resulting in over 15,000 people seeking shelter in evacuation centres in the Western and Northern Divisions (with over 6,000 people displaced from Nadi), at least 5 deaths and initial estimates of over FJ$75 m of damage in key economic sectors. This follows previous flooding in January 2012 and a similarly severe flood event in 2009 which left 11 people dead and over 12,000 people temporarily homeless.

A number of initiatives to reduce flood risk in Nadi have been investigated, including the potential construction of a diversion channel between Martintar and Nadi Town Centre (JICA, 1998), and shifting the town centre to the Martintar area. The Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) are currently about to revisit the potential for a diversion channel in the context of the development that has occurred in Nadi over the last fifteen years. The Nadi Catchment has also been selected as the Fiji component of the Pacific Integrated Water Resource Management Project. Much of the activities have involved the establishment of a flood early warning system, awareness raising, development of an Integrated Flood Management Plan, and establishment and operation of the Nadi Basin Catchment Committee to oversee all activities. This is now a Cabinet endorsed Committee for integrated flood management in Nadi. It has representatives of all government, NGO, community and private sector stakeholders in Nadi serving on the committee. The Nadi catchment and urban area is also pilot for a regional project being implemented by SPC-SOPAC for the World Bank through funding from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. One component of this is to improve understanding of flood hazard and risk, using detailed flood inundation models, in the urban and peri-urban areas of the town (Pearson & Smart, 2013).

Fiji has a strong hierarchical approach to development planning. At the national level the Department of Local Government within MLGUDHE manages the development of Fiji's twelve municipal local governments, of which Nadi Town Council (NTC) is one, through the Local Government Act, with the Department of Town and Country Planning in the same Ministry controlling and regulating the appropriate use of land in Fiji through the Town and Country Planning Act and Subdivision of Land Act.

The Nadi region is administered by two bodies: 1) the Commissioner Western’s Office under the Ministry of Provincial Development has responsibilities for development in rural and peri- urban areas, and 2) the Nadi Town Council responsible for the areas within the current municipal boundary. All urban planning and management is primarily guided by the Town and Country Planning Act, Subdivision of Land Act, Local Government Act and the Public Health Act. The main mechanisms used by the NTC include the Town Planning Scheme (2000) and the Nadi Extension Town Planning Scheme (2004).

2.6.2 Apia Samoa faces a significant urban challenge with the legacy of rapid development and settlement change that have occurred during the last 50-years. There are significant areas of existing development at risk from cyclone–related inundation, river flooding and surface/storm-water drainage issues. The effects of climate change and sea-level rise will significantly exacerbate the impacts of these hazards on Apia’s urban areas. The impacts

24 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

from the recent Cyclone Evan flash flooding in December 2012 is indicative of the types of hazard risks that are associated with development.

As with Nadi, traditional villages are located within the urban area, with urban development established around these areas. Maintaining this cultural identity is a fundamental goal of Apia’s urban planning activities.

The approach to planning is less stratified to that in Fiji, with strong guidance from Government (via PUMA). The draft Samoa National Urban Policy (2013) prepared by PUMA, represents the opportunity to incorporate aspects of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation into planning initiatives for Apia. Under this policy, the Apia Spatial Plan is being developed (now available in draft) and this is likely to be followed by the development of zoning plans based on the approach adopted in the sustainable management plan for Vaitele (PUMA, 2012) where development standards for different land use zones are defined. These recent planning initiatives offer opportunities to test out the standard planning methodology and approach for evaluating natural disaster and climate change risks in urban development.

Figure 1: Land use zones defined in the sustainable management plan for Vaitele, Apia, Samoa (PUMA, 2012).

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 25

3 Available information to support risk-based urban management decision-making in Pacific Islands

3.1 Introduction Ensuring natural hazard and climate change considerations are incorporated into urban development and infrastructure decision-making is of critical importance given the long lifespan, and indeed permanency, of major urban development and their associated infrastructure, and the potential difficulties and costs of “climate-retrofitting” once such development is in place (for example once a road is built it is much more difficult and expensive to later relocate it). Risk-based land use planning, that incorporates risks from natural hazards and climate-change, identifies the safest areas to prioritize investments in urban development and infrastructure projects (Abhas, 2012).

A primary intention of this project is to demonstrate how existing information can be utilised to make these improved risk-informed urban planning decisions. A particular focus is on the use of hazard, asset (buildings and infrastructure) and risk information collated during earlier phases of the Pacific Catastrophic Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI).

Following this introductory section is an assessment of information developed during PCRAFI and available via the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Information System (PacRIS) as well as other available information and dataset of relevance to the project in the six Pacific Island countries involved, and specifically for Apia and Nadi.

3.1.1 Spatial and probabilistic hazard information For the planning and design of new development and infrastructure, probabilistic estimates of extreme natural hazard event conditions (usually in terms of annual exceedance probabilities, AEP’s, or average return periods, such as 20, 50 or 100 years) are often required. Extreme conditions are typically projected either from shorter-period data sets (for example a number of decades of rainfall or sea-level data) using various statistical methodologies, or from model simulations. Whilst development and infrastructure projects are often specified to be designed to a particular annual exceedance probability or return period, with a few notable exceptions:

There are few examples in the Pacific, particularly related to rainfall and coastal conditions, where robust analysis of extreme design conditions have been developed, including measures of their accuracy and uncertainty.

There are even less examples of where climate change impacts have been factored in to the derivation of probabilistic design conditions or hazard maps. Examples where this has been conducted include the ADB Climate proofing demonstration study in the FSM and Cook Islands (ADB, 2005), the Climate Information for Risk Management component of the Kiribati Adaptation Project (Thompson et al. 2010; Ramsay et al. 2010), and the Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change demonstration projects in the Cook Islands and Fiji (Stephens and Ramsay, 2012, Ramsay, Carey-Smith and Mullan, 2013).

26 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Identifying areas at risk from climate-related hazards to inform activities such as disaster risk reduction, land use and infrastructure planning has similarly resulted in few examples of climate-related hazard mapping (for example Figure 2). Whilst communities in the Pacific typically have a very good appreciation and local knowledge of areas at risk from hazards, such as inundation, issues such as population pressures, internal migration and high levels of urbanisation in and around island capitals has more recently resulted in development creep in to ever-more exposed locations.

Figure 2: Flood and landslide hazard map for Guadalcanal in Solomon Islands. Source: Trustrum (1989, 1990).

3.1.2 Risk-information related barriers and issues Ramsay and Lefale (2010) summarised key information-related issues and barriers around risk-based approaches to adapting development and infrastructure design to accommodate climate change. This included:

Robustness of present development and infrastructure to extremes is highly variable due to historical differences in design conditions assumed and use of incomplete or outdated data and climate information.

Past development and infrastructure often located in more exposed or at risk locations due to permanency issues (i.e., it has been there a long period of time and is difficult to convince governments or infrastructure owners to relocate), lack of awareness of potential hazards at the time of initial design and construction, or land ownership issues.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 27

Accessibility of the basic climate datasets. Data may be held in a number of places or formats, or agreement needs to be obtained from the National Meteorological Services (NMS) to access and use the data. This is often a major challenge.

Availability of data in the right place, to an appropriate resolution for the purpose, and of sufficient data quality to derive robust design conditions. As an example a key issue for the World Bank road infrastructure project in Samoa was the lack of information on how extreme sea-levels varied around the two main islands relative to the only sea-level gauge located at Apia. This has added additional uncertainty to road, bridge, culvert and seawall design.

Lack of appropriate locally relevant design standards, building codes and processes that provide guidance and processes for accommodating climate extremes, variability and change.

3.2 Data Contained in PacRIS

3.2.1 Background The Pacific Catastrophic Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) was initiated by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank to quantify the relative financial risk that Pacific island countries faced from natural hazard events, focusing on earthquake, cyclone and tsunami hazards. PCRAFI involved a number of stages including:

Development of a hazards database containing:

Historic catalogue of recorded earthquake (approximately 115,000 events between 1768 and 2009) and cyclone events (2,422 events between 1948 and 2008). Most of these events did not have major damaging consequences. A “consequence” database was also assembled that contains approximately 450 events from 1831 to 2009 that affected at least one of the 15 Pacific Island countries.

Development of a probabilistic database of simulated earthquake, tsunami and cyclone hazard data based on the historic catalogue.

Development of an exposure database containing information on buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, and population:

For the building and infrastructure dataset, the outlines of approximately 450,000 structures covering all urban buildings in the Pacific were digitised from satellite images (estimated about 30% of total number of buildings in the Pacific island countries). 80,000 of these buildings were physically checked and building information and photographs collected for each. A further 3 million, predominantly rural buildings, were geo-located and classified using remote sensing techniques.

Information on major cash crops, ground cover, topological maps and population.

28 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

The estimated total replacement cost of all the assets in the 15 PICs is about US$113 billion, an amount that includes US$94 billion in buildings, US$15 billion in infrastructure assets, and US$4 billion in major crops.

Using the hazard and asset information, the damage caused by a hazard event. By simulating many thousands of events a risk profile for each country was then defined in terms of direct losses for different return periods and average annual loss (Country Risk Profiles).

3.2.2 Probabilistic hazard information The available GIS hazards layers within PacRIS are summarised in Table 8. Only probabilistic hazard information is available for earthquake shaking and cyclone wind conditions (Figure 3). No inundation (storm surge, flood or tsunami) hazard information has been made available within PacRIS. Hazard layers were not part of the intended PCRAFI outputs but the earthquake shaking and wind speed hazard layers were included as it was appreciated that these would be of use1.

Table 8: Summary of GIS hazard layers available in PacRIS.

Return Earthquake Cyclone Tsunami period Peak horizontal Maximum sustained Storm surge River flood Inundation acceleration of the 1 minute wind extent or extent or extent or depths ground speed depths depths 50   X X X 100   X X X 250   X X X 500   X X X 1000   X X X 2500   X X X

Inundation was not modelled specifically (where maps of inundation extent, depths and velocities could be produced) but rather a statistical technique was used to infer inundation. area. This was used as it is a pragmatic approach suited to a regional level assessment where many simulations need to be conducted2. The assessment also used the NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). This is the only dataset available that covers the entire land area of the 15 Pacific Island countries in a consistent manner. It has a horizontal spatial resolution of around 90 m (single elevation over a 90 m by 90 m square) but the vertical accuracy of this dataset is limited with potential errors of up to 5 to 8 m possible, particularly in low-lying heavily vegetated areas.

A comparison between the SRTM topography used and the more recently collected much higher accuracy LiDAR data for the Nadi region is shown in Figure 4. Where inundation assessments are based on the SRTM topography they can only really be treated as “indicative” at best. Whilst the SRTM topography is generally accurate enough for assessing topographical effects on wind hazard, using this dataset to estimate direct losses due to tsunami, storm surge or flood hazard for local level assessment is extremely questionable.

1 Paolo Bazzurro, Pers. Comm.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 29

Furthermore in presenting the direct and average annual losses for each country, tsunami losses have been lumped in with earthquake losses, and cyclone-related storm surge and flood losses lumped in with cyclone wind loss. Within the modelling process losses for each hazard (e.g., wind, storm surge, flood) are computed separately and then combined to provide the outputs but the individual losses are not saved2. It is not possible from the PCRAFI reports or datasets to assess the relative magnitude of the inundation-related hazards or their contribution to the overall earthquake and cyclone-related losses calculated.

The implications for the application of the available hazard information is discussed in Section 3.2.6 below.

Figure 3: Example of wind hazard information available for Fiji. In this example maximum one minute sustained wind speeds (in miles per hour) are shown for a 100 year return period.

Figure 4: Comparison between the SRTM topography used in PCRAFI activities (left) with the recently-collected May 2012 LiDAR dataset (right) for Nadi Basin.

2 Paolo Bazzurro, Pers. Comm.

30 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

3.2.3 Asset and population information PacRIS contains GIS layers of all the asset, population and associated information collected and used in assessing earthquake and cyclone risk for each country. This includes GIS layers of:

Residential building footprints/locations and attributes.

Spatial locations and key attributes of major infrastructure and critical facilities (such as hospitals, primary health-care, police and fire stations, emergency- management & response offices, welfare or evacuation centres and schools). These need to remain functioning with minimal disruption during a disaster and an important aspect of land-use development planning is being cognizant of the location and potential hazard exposure of these facilities and their structural resilience to hazards.

Land use cover derived from moderate and low-resolution satellite imagery using image detection techniques with some validation in Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu.

Surface geology (Fiji, Vanuatu, Solomon islands and Papua New Guinea only).

Surface soil type derived from topographic slope based on the SRTM4 topography data.

Bathymetry (sea depth).

Population statistics (estimated to 2010) for different spatial divisions (typically from the smallest aggregation zone – enumeration area/census area/village up to district/province and country levels).

As part of the flood inundation modelling activities currently being conducted for the Nadi catchment an assessment of the asset database for Nadi has recently been conducted. This identified a substantial number of new buildings since the PCRAFI asset data was collected. It also identified issues with individual building attributes. Where attributes for buildings and infrastructure were not collected in person during Phase II of PCRAFI, attributes were assigned statistically. This is a normal approach for an assessment of this type but is something that needs to be considered when using the PCRAFI datasets for more local level application. For Nadi a large number of these issues have now been corrected as part of the flood inundation modelling project, but a similar exercise is likely to be required for the Apia asset data.

3.2.4 Risk information Risk information is present in the form of direct and emergency losses for different return periods and average annual losses for:

Earthquake including tsunami.

Tsunami alone.

Cyclone (wind and inundation collectively).

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 31

The relative breakdown of direct losses for buildings, infrastructure and crops for each of these hazards is also presented in the country risk profiles and accessible via the PCRAFI database tool. The country risk profiles also presented some spatial loss information as shown in the example for Fiji in Figure 5. For most countries this has generally been aggregated up to the “district” level (e.g., by Tikina in the case of Fiji in Figure 5). Only three types of spatial loss information (in GIS format) are currently available for each country in PacRIS:

Building replacement cost density by district.

Average annual loss for tropical cyclone and earthquake (ground shaking and tsunami) by district (Figure 5 left).

Average annual loss/replacement costs of assets by district (Figure 5, right).

Other ways of presenting the information spatially can be achieved through extracting the relevant information from the PCRAFI database tool and incorporating in to GIS.

Figure 5: Examples of spatial representation of risk information in the country profile for Fiji. Left: The contribution from the different districts to the average annual loss for tropical cyclone and earthquake (ground shaking and tsunami). Right: Contribution from the different districts to the tropical cyclone and earthquake (ground shaking and tsunami) average annual loss divided by the replacement cost of the assets in each district.

3.2.5 Extension of the PCRAFI loss information Further work has also been conducted in a third phase of PCRAFI supported by the Pacific- Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program and Global Fund for Disaster Risk Reduction to understand the potential changes in future cyclone hazard risk to key assets (building, infrastructure and agriculture) under future climate scenarios.

This involved using 11 climate change models under two different model frameworks representing two future climate change scenarios. The information was used to modify the statistical tropical cyclone model and then risk models to create loss (combined wind and inundation) information for specific future climate change scenarios.

32 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Results are presented for the present day, 2050 and 2100, for total direct losses and by asset (buildings, infrastructure and crop losses) in terms of average annual loss for each country, return period loss and exceedence probability and by population affected. Results have been presented across the region as a whole and by country. This information is not yet available viable the PCRAFI database tool or PacRIS. As an example, the results suggest that tropical cyclone changes could cause up to a 25% increase in average annual loss for Samoa, but for Fiji only very minor change.

3.2.6 Suitability of PacRIS information for urban planning The country risk profiles suggest that the risk profile information can be used by urban and development planning to “…..identify the best location of new development areas, evaluate how natural hazards may shape their development, and to assess whether the benefits of reducing the risk of natural events justify the costs of implementing the risk mitigating measures.”

The return period information for earthquake shaking and tropical cyclone sustained wind speed GIS information will certainly be of considerable value in providing information for building code development and application in each of the countries for seismic and wind load building design. Some simple transformation of the hazard information needs to occur for this purpose, for example wind speeds need to be converted from miles to km per hour.

GIS layers of inundation hazard (tsunami, flood and storm surge) information are not available. Due to the nature of the low-resolution topography datasets used, and modelling approach the accuracy of the inundation hazard information would not have been appropriate for more detailed urban planning application. Part of the selection process for the two demonstration locations (Nadi and Apia) was that other sources of inundation hazard information, from records of recent past cyclone related hazard events and from other more detailed hydrodynamic modelling activities, were available (see next section). However, the lack of inundation hazard layers does limit the opportunity to demonstrate somewhat the different types of decisions that can be made using different levels (accuracy) of underlying information, and the use of PacRIS hazard information in locations with little or no other available hazard information.

It is appreciated that parts of the methodology used by the consultants to translate hazard information in to loss information is commercially sensitive. However, the lack of detail and transparency (essentially a ‘black-box’ approach) in the hazard and risk assessment does provide a severe limitation for the further use and application of the datasets.

The impact-loss datasets that are available via the PCRAFI database tool (and can be incorporated in to a spatial GIS format) should potentially be available from the risk modelling activities and would have some value for urban and development planning. However, this information would only be useful if it is available at the smallest aggregate level used for each country (Table 9), and shown for the Nadi region in Figure 6. It is understood that as part of the modelling process loss information was aggregated to the lowest aggregate level for each country but was not saved3. Unfortunately as the information is limited to the Tikina or District levels (in the case of Fiji and Samoa, respectively), the PacRIS and the PCRAFI database tool will be of little use for informing more localised risk-based urban planning.

3 Paolo Bazzurro, Pers. Comm.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 33

With the exception of the wind and earthquake hazard layers and the collated asset information layers, the ‘coarse’ aggregation of much of the derived risk information (average annual losses etc.,) really only makes of it useful for considerations at inter-country, national and regional levels, and limited value for local decision-making. A summary of the presently available PCRAFI information and datasets and its suitability for local decision-making related to urban and infrastructure planning in this project is provided in Table 10.

Whilst the datasets available from PCRAFI have limited application for more localised decision-making, the risk-based approach adopted by PCRAFI does have substantial applicability for informing and supporting more robust urban planning decision-making. This requires both the hazard and loss modelling to be conducted at a more localised resolution and is discussed in Section 4.

Table 9: Summary of spatial aggregation units used in PCRAFI to present loss information in each of the six countries involved in this current project. The shading shows the available aggregate spatial level for all risk information available in PacRIS or the PCRAFI database tool.

Country Coarse >>> Refined Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Fiji Province Tikina Enumeration area Province District Local Census unit Papua New Guinea Government level Samoa Island Region District Village Solomon Islands Province Ward Enumeration area Tonga Division District Village Census Block Vanuatu Province Island Area Council Enumeration area

Figure 6: Boundaries of enumeration areas (yellow) and Tikina area (red) for the Nadi region.All derived spatial risk information available in PCRAFI is aggregated up to the Tikina level.

34 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Table 10: Summary of the availability and applicability of PCRAFI datasets for local urban and infrastructure decision-making.

Criteria Hazard datasets Asset datasets Risk datasets Available Wind hazard layer. Applicable use: and Earthquake hazard layer. - Building dataset. applicable - Infrastructure dataset. - Population dataset (at lowest spatial aggregation level for each country). Some use: - Land use cover dataset. - Surface geology dataset. - Surface soil types dataset. - Boundary datasets. - Topography dataset. Available All risk data information at and not ‘coarse’ aggregation levels applicable (medium, e.g., district or higher, e.g., province / country aggregation levels) - very limited applicability as spatial scales too great. Unavailable Tsunami, storm surge and flood All risk information at and inundation layers (some limited ‘refined’ aggregation levels applicable applicability for local decision- (datasets not made making but datasets not made available by consultants). available by consultants).

3.3 Other relevant hazard and climate change-related information

3.3.1 Other hazard information of relevance to the project Other spatial (map-based) hazard information identified as being relevant for the project in the six countries is summarised in Table 11. The focus is on weather (heavy rainfall, flooding) and coastal (storm and tsunami-related inundation) hazards.

Of relevance to the demonstration areas are the ongoing flood inundation modelling being conducted for the Nadi area as part of the Nadi River Flood Risk Assessment project and the cyclone storm surge and inundation modelling being conducted for both Nadi and Apia as part of the Pacific Climate Change and Adaptation Project (PACCSAP). Both these projects are ongoing with results and information likely to be available to the project early next year during the demonstration stage.

Further inundation modelling work is also expected to be conducted for the Vaisigano River (using recently collated high resolution LiDAR topography dataset) with requests for proposals expected to be released by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in Samoa shortly. It is unlikely that this information will be available in time for the demonstration studies, with the existing Vaisigano flood modelling information used instead. The future availability of more detailed flood-hazard information will enable a demonstration of the types of urban planning decisions that can be made with different levels of hazard and risk information available. The intention is to establish the process within the demonstration studies so that, in the case of Samoa, the revised Vaisigano flood inundation information, or

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 35

indeed any other future hazard information, can be incorporated into the urban-planning framework by PUMA when it becomes available.

Table 11: Summary of identified spatial hazard (weather and coastal-related) information for the six Pacific Island countries involved in this project.

Location Details Reference GIS layers available Guadacanal Indicative river flood inundation map (defined as low, medium, Trustrum et al. No Plains, high and very high hazard) based on floodplain geomorphology. (1989) Solomon Islands Guadacanal, Indicative landslide hazard map (defined as low, medium, high Trustrum et al. No Solomon and very high hazard). (1989) Islands Mele Bay, Storm surge and wave inundation scenario inundation and Shorten et al. No Port Vila, damage assessment due to an extreme cyclone adapted from (2003) Vanuatu Cyclone Beni. Tsunami scenario for Port Vila generated from a hypothetical Mw 8.1 earthquake located 50 km west of the capital, in the same location as the 2002 earthquake, and equivalent in magnitude to the largest earthquake recorded in the region to date. Return periods of extreme wind and earthquake for return period intervals from 10 to 1000 years. Resulting direct damage costs for different building classification. Vaisigano Flood hazard mapping for 20 and 100 year return period flood Lumbruso et Yes River, Apia, events. al. (2006a,b) Samoa Samoa Indicative coastal inundation zones mapped for the entire Gibb (2001) Yes coastline as part of the Infrastructure Asset Management Project. Also considered coastal erosion and landslip hazard. Apia Hazard Map. Apia, Cyclone storm surge and wave inundation modelling for city Yes by late Samoa frontage for return periods of 20, 50 and 100 year events and for 2013 three future climate change scenarios (2030, 2055, 2100) being conducted by CSIRO as part of the PACCSAP programme. GIS layers of depth and velocity inundation available shortly. Nadi flood inundation extent and depth information collated after Turner (2009), Yes Nadi, Fiji the 2009 and 2012 cyclones. Waugh (2012) Cyclone storm tide modelling (water levels only) for a range of Yes by return periods and climate change scenarios (specific conditions early 2014 Nadi, Fiji currently being defined to fit in to the flood modelling) and being conducted by CSIRO as part of the PACCSAP project. Nadi flood inundation modelling of the 2009 and 2012 cyclone Pearson & Yes by Nadi, Fiji events and derivation of a 1:100 year ‘design’ flood with some Smart (2013) early 2014 key mitigation options identified. Nuku’alofa, Worst case scenario inundation for Nuku’alofa from six local Damlamian Yes Tonga source tsunamis. Map of inundation depth produced. (2013) 100 year return period storm surge inundation extents for Kruger & Yes Lifuka, present day and with 2 m of sea-level rise. Three levels of Damlamian Tonga coastal hazard zone derived. (2013)

36 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

3.3.2 Climate change information The Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (The physical science basis) to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)4 have recently been released, with the full report to follow. This considers new evidence of climate change based on observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. Its findings, which largely confirm projections from the previous assessment, are largely presented at the global level, with more detailed regional information to follow as part of the Working Group II report which will be released in 2014. In a new initiative, the Working Group I report includes an Annex I that contains an atlas of some of the projections at regional scales, which includes the overall Pacific Islands region, but further downscaling to country-scales will still be required.

For the Pacific region, the most recent assessment of past and potential future climate change was carried out by the Australian funded Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP). Climate change summaries and projections have been produced for 14 Pacific Island countries (including the six involved in this current project).

The climate projections for each country are available online via the Pacific Climate Futures Tool6. The tool provides country specific projections for:

11 climate variables: temperature (mean, maximum, minimum), rain (including heavy daily rainfall and dry days), wind speed (including strong daily wind), evaporation, solar radiation and relative humidity

three time periods: 2030, 2055 and 2090

three emissions scenarios: low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A2).

Whilst the Climate Futures tool is extremely useful for determining potential medium and long-term climate information needs (for example to support water security and energy demand), it is of less use in determining extreme weather-related hazard information typically required to support infrastructure and development decision-making. Changes in extreme daily rainfall and winds are incorporated in to the tool, but to a limited extent and only available at the “advanced” level to people who have been trained in the use of the tool. Also further, detailed analysis needs to be conducted to translate this information in to the type of information used at the local level, for example, for use in flood inundation assessment or return period probabilities for infrastructure design. Examples of this approach have been developed in the tools developed as part of the Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change projects in Fiji (extreme rainfall and sea levels), Cook Islands (extreme cyclone-related wave and storm-surge inundation) and the Kiribati Adaptation Project (extreme rainfall, drought and coastal wave and water level inundation), (Ramsay et al. 2008, 2013; Ramsay, 2012; Thompson et al. 2008).

3.3.3 Other sources of relevant data Besides natural hazard and risk data within PacRIS (Section 3.2) and other hazard and climate-change information identified in the above sections, there are also a number of other

4 http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UlRnw6j28tg 5 http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/PCCSP/publications1.html 6 http://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 37

relevant sources of data that can be used to derive hazard information or provide supporting information of relevance to urban planning and development decision-making. A summary of relevant datasets likely to be available in each of the six Pacific Island countries is contained in Table 12 with the types of information summarised below:

Longer-term records of weather-related, river (hydrological) and sea-level measurements generally reside in the meteorological services or water authorities of each Pacific Island country. If of sufficient length and quality, such datasets can be used to derive extreme hazard conditions (e.g., extreme rainfall intensity, wind conditions or extreme sea-levels).

Historic or present aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery. Aerial photography or older cadastral maps, particularly a historic sequence, can provide important time-line information on the pace, intensity and extent of urban development, especially in relation to the present-day or future-climate hazard risk. e.g., appraising the ongoing development in flood plains, along the coast, steep slopes or exposed hill ridgelines.

Detailed topography, specifically LiDAR datasets (see Figure 4 and Figure 7).

Table 12: Summary of the availability of relevant datasets for key urban areas in the six Pacific Island countries. This excludes the datasets collated as part of PCRAFI.

Fiji Samoa Tonga Vanuatu Solomon Papua New Islands Guinea

Weather and





climate datasets Nadi, Nausori Apia Nuku’alofa Port Vila / Honiara / Limited & Suva Bauerfield Henderson dataset Airport available for Port Moresby River (hydrological) Limited data Very N/A Very limited Very limited data Very limited datasets available for limited data available available data Nadi data for available Apia Sea-level datasets




Very limited dataset for Lautoka & Apia Nuku’alofa Port Vila Honiara Port Suva Moresby Historic or recent


Not assessed Not assessed Not aerial photographs assessed available Available recent


Not assessed Not assessed Not high resolution assessed satellite information LiDAR dataset

(due

(due shortly available shortly for Port Vila) for Apia)

Basic map information is available from the Fiji Land Information System in the Department of Lands and from the GIS unit in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Whilst there hasn’t been an opportunity to fully assess all the datasets within these systems, basic

38 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

information on topography (generally 10 m contours), roads, natural geographical features (such as rivers, coastline, mangrove areas and reefs), and district, city, town and village boundaries information is typically available.

Figure 7: Availability of LiDAR survey data in Samoa. Source: Gerstenberg, Pers. Comm.

3.4 Risk Screening and Decision-making tools There are a number of climate change and natural disaster risk screening, risk assessment and decision-making frameworks and tools available for urban development analysis. Risk in this context is a function of: i) a potential hazard and its frequency (e.g., flooding); ii) the exposure of people and assets to that hazard and its likelihood (e.g., flood inundation depths); and iii) vulnerability (e.g., how susceptible or resilient are exposed population, buildings and infrastructure to the hazard).7

Application of risk assessment tools results in a systematic understanding of the spatial distribution of the likelihood of damage and loss from natural hazards to inform decision- makers on where opportunities exist to reduce the risk (including climate-change effects).

There are also similar vulnerability assessment tools, which focus more on adaptive capacity (i.e., ability to adjust and respond to changes and cope with damaging events) as well as hazard exposure and impacts.

The key functions of these types of risk assessment frameworks and tools are outlined in Table 13. Most of these approaches are essentially built around a multi-step framework or

7 Communities highly exposed need not be highly vulnerable if well-planned, underpinned by effective risk-reduction measures

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 39

procedure, while some of them also include practical “how-to” tools or methodologies at each step to assist with e.g., analysing, integrating, overlaying relational datasets/maps and evaluating investments or policies to reduce risk (see Table 14 for some examples of generic tools).

While many risk screening and assessment frameworks and tools are broad based and developed for specific geographical areas, those identified in this report are focussed on the Pacific Region and are applicable to urban planning.

Table 13: Climate and disaster risk management framework and tool types by function. After: Hammill and Tanner, 2011.

Function Step in risk Description Question addressed management approach Systematic examination of development activities or Is more assessment Pre-screening proposals to select or eliminate them from further needed? assessment, or to make a diagnosis. Screening Tends to be relatively quicker to conduct and is Risk-screening broader in scope. As a very light-touch process it is commonly known as pre-screening. Risk assessment Methodology to determine the nature and extent of What is the problem? risk by analyzing potential hazards (current and projected) and evaluating conditions of vulnerability that could pose a potential threat or harm to people, property, livelihoods and the environment on which they depend (UNISDR, 2004). Assessment Risk analysis Process that considers planning or management What are the and options to minimise negative impacts and take options? evaluation advantage of opportunities in light of the identified current and future risks. Options Evaluating both the adequacy of current risk What is the course of evaluation management strategies and potential new activities action or policy? or development to manage additional risk or to take advantage of opportunities.

Table 14: Some generic examples of tools or methodologies that support various steps in a risk-based planning framework.

Step in risk-based Example function Generic examples of tools framework Setting the scene Organizing information. Catalogue or database of available information (data, images, maps, references, plans, policies). Understanding the issues Risk screening and Sensitivity matrix prioritisation tool applied at city prioritisation of vulnerable and neighbourhood levels (e.g., spreadsheet with areas. climate and hazard effects versus urban infrastructure and buildings potentially vulnerable to these effects – allocate a sensitivity ranking). Hazard exposure Capturing historic event Community-based mapping (local knowledge and information, extreme and community surveys), modelling of actual, scenario future climate change and/or future hazard events e.g., flood inundation scenarios. depths, Geographic Information System (GIS) for information presentation.

40 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Step in risk-based Example function Generic examples of tools framework Assessing vulnerability Identifying, quantifying and Geographic Information System (GIS), quantitative mapping consequences, risk and loss modelling tools. e.g., Mapping assets vs hazard exposure. Evaluating options Identifying and prioritize Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria investments in urban analysis (MCA) tools. development and infrastructure projects. Risk reduction Improve siting and design Best-practice guidance material or engineering of infrastructure. quality standards.

Table 15 summarises the types and characteristics of relevant risk-screening and decision- making tools, elements of which can be incorporated into the proposed urban development framework for Pacific Islands. The following sub-sections provide a summary of some of these tools and frameworks – elements of which can be utilised in the Pacific Urban Development Planning framework and associated tools.

3.4.1 High level risk frameworks High level risk frameworks, such as CHARM (Comprehensive Hazard and Risk Management) moves hazard and risk management away from an emergency response approach to a more holistic risk management reduction strategy that is intrinsically integrated to national or regional development policies and plans.

CHARM was specifically developed in 2001 for Pacific Island countries by the Disaster Management Unit at SPC-SOPAC and the Queensland Dept. of Emergency Services. The guidance methodology is based around the approach in AS/NZS: 4360 Risk Management Standard (1999), shown in Figure 8. The risk standard has since been superseded by the AS/NZS ISO:3100 (2009), but the process remains the same.

Figure 8: Risk assessment and management approach (CHARM).

The basic structure and principles of CHARM will be used in developing an improved framework for urban planning and development for the present project.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 41

Table 15: Summary of main characteristics of a hierarchy of increasingly more comprehensive or effective risk-assessment and analysis frameworks to inform decision making on hazard and climate-change risk-reduction for urban planning.

Tool or framework Type Approach Tools Information Spatial Natural Outputs Users needs/inputs scales hazards High-level risk Risk Guidance Checklists only Hazards, climate Regional Primary and Users develop own Government, frameworks screening and framework with change impacts; & national secondary tables and regional authority e.g., CHARM8 assessment checklists (word development plans & hazards decision-support and council across processing & tables policies diagrams planning & policy agencies or charts) staff Risk-based planning Risk Guidance via a Tasks, resources, Handles minimal to Local & Can be Documented Council planning frameworks with screening, systematic case-studies, moderate information regional adapted to worksheets and & policy staff, resources vulnerability framework checklists and on impacts and range of checklists, public e.g., Planning for assessment & supported by structured vulnerability, hazards vulnerability matrix, participation, Climate Change analysis resources worksheets to community-based Action Plan stakeholders (UN-Habitat)9 facilitate team work maps Risk-based planning Risk Evaluative Practical tools Adaptable to varying Local & Flooding, Best-practice, Regional frameworks with screening, framework based available levels of information on regional sea-level rise, documented authority and resources & tools assessment & around toolboxes thematically hazards, climate landslides, decisions on council planning, e.g., Urban Impacts analysis alongside case grouped in change impacts, drainage, reducing risk; cost- consents & policy Toolbox (UIT)10 studies and best- toolboxes aligned plans/policies, growth potable water benefit analysis; staff, practice with the framework strategies, transport (in UIT) but informing infrastructure and case studies to corridors, can be stakeholder engineers & demonstrate use of infrastructure, data extended engagement, operators tools from RiskScape action plans Quantitative Risk Risk Software package Modules (assets, Detailed hazard Local & Multi-hazard Maps & tables Technical Analysis (QRA) tools assessment & (Java or GIS- hazard models, exposure layers/maps, regional (geological & (direct & indirect practitioners with e.g., RiskScape11, analysis based) to exposure, population and asset weather- losses), computer skills, CAPRA12, HAZUS13 undertake risk vulnerability, attributes & locations, related aggregation to but outputs used modelling options analysis) fragility functions hazards) larger spatial units by decision makers

8 http://ict.sopac.org/VirLib/DM0044.pdf 9 http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=3164 10 http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/urban-impacts-toolbox/toolbox-overview 11 http://www.riskscape.org.nz/ 12 http://www.ecapra.org/software 13 http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/ 42 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

3.4.2 Risk based planning frameworks

Planning for Climate Change, UN-Habitat Planning for Climate Change is a guidance tool that is based on the notion that all planning -- spatial/physical, sectoral, environmental, organizational, economic - is more effective if it is strategic and driven by locally identified needs and values. The guidance tool was prepared for the United Nations Human Settlement Programme–UN-Habitat (UN-Habitat, 2011)14 and is also complemented by a similar guidance tool, Developing Local Climate Change Plans – A guide for developing countries (UN-Habitat, 2012)15.

The guidance tool provides a comprehensive cyclic planning process (Figure 9) based on understanding long-term climate change impacts, urban development challenges and the needs of citizens. While this tool is not built around a formal risk-assessment framework, it includes a module on an assessment of vulnerability (Step 3), which is a function of:
hazard or climate exposure (including likelihood of impacts)

sensitivity (potential adverse consequences), and

adaptive capacity (ability to adjust and respond to changes and cope with damaging events).

Figure 9: Planning for Climate Change – planning framework.Source: UN-Habitat (2011).

It includes vulnerability rating matrices, checklists and templates that initiate inquiry through a series of questions and examples for assessing the vulnerability of infrastructure, utilities and sectors of an urban community (housing, commercial, education and health) and methods such as community-based hazard mapping to encapsulate local knowledge.

14 http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/PFCC-14-03-11.pdf 15 http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/11424_1_594548.pdf

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 43

This planning tool would be more familiar to planning practitioners, elements of which could be incorporated into the proposed framework for informing urban development.

Urban Impacts Toolbox The Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Infrastructure and the Built Environment Toolbox, (2012)16 is a resource to help city and regional planners, engineers, asset managers, and hazard analysts in New Zealand urban councils understand and evaluate the potential impacts of climate change in their city and opportunities. The Toolbox follows a science- based risk-assessment process and demonstrates methods of identifying adaptation options and evaluating their benefits.

The Toolbox was produced by researchers in NIWA, MWH New Zealand Ltd, GNS Science and BRANZ. It is designed with an overall 5-step end-to-end evaluation framework represented by the "trays" in the Toolbox (Figure 10).

.Figure 10: The 5 trays (or steps) in the Urban Impacts Toolbox.Source: NIWA.

3.4.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis tools RiskScape is multi-hazard quantitative risk-assessment and analysis software package developed through a New Zealand joint-venture between NIWA and GNS Science.17

RiskScape is a regional or local risk and impact assessment tool based on the process shown by the schematic in Figure 11. Its primary purpose is to provide a framework in which the risk of impact to assets and people due to various hazards can be calculated, both direct and indirect impacts. This information e.g., potential damage to properties, number of people affected or displaced, casualties, business disruption, can be used for a wide range of applications, from planning to hazard management to asset management / planning.

RiskScape18 requires a reasonable level of computing skills and is reasonably demanding on inputs such as modelled hazard-exposure data e.g., flood inundation depths, asset attributes and locations, replacement values and demographics, to derive meaningful quantitative estimates of potential direct and indirect losses.

16 http://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/urban-impacts-toolbox/toolbox-overview 17 http://www.riskscape.org.nz/ 18 http://www.riskscape.org.nz/

44 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Figure 11: Schematic of core framework for the RiskScape system.

Similar quantitative risk-assessment packages are:

CAPRA, which is a unified disaster risk information system built around an open-source community software package comprising several modules including hazards, exposure, loss, vulnerability.

HAZUS is a multi-hazard risk analysis system developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency19 which is built on a GIS platform and requires a GIS-user licence.

RiskScape simulations of flooding risk will be available to the Nadi case study through a parallel World Bank project undertaking Nadi basin flood inundation modelling of the 2009 and 2012 cyclone events, derivation of a 1:100 year ‘design’ flood and consideration of the performance of a number of initial mitigation options (Smart & Pearson, 2013).

19 http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 45

4
         -     

4.1 Introduction Following the inception activities, implementation of the TA involves two components, the demonstration phase and the capacity building and awareness phase. The basic activities are summarised in Figure 12.

Figure 12: Overview of the project work flow.

46 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

4.2 Demonstration study component

4.2.1 Overview Of critical importance will be developing a coordinated and integrated involvement and approach across all key stakeholders that seeks to consider a holistic understanding of activities across all sectors and their impact on increasing or reducing natural hazard and climate change-related risk to assets and communities. Specifically future development plans for infrastructure agencies e.g., to meet demand following population or local economic growth, are important drivers of urban development that need to be integrated into the planning process. Through this approach, resources can be utilised to deliver efficiency and effectiveness in urban areas.

The approach will be to work alongside the key urban planning agencies in Nadi (Nadi Town Council, Building and Planning Department, and also the Department of Town and Country Planning of MLGUDHE), and Apia (PUMA), and to develop coordination and integration by working through established coordination mechanisms in the two towns, primarily:

The Nadi Basin Catchment Committee (NBCC) in Nadi. This is now a Cabinet endorsed Committee for integrated flood management. It has representatives of all government, NGO, community and private sector stakeholders in Nadi serving on the committee.

The newly created Town Development Committee in Apia.

The primary focus of the demonstration study will be primarily on incorporating inundation related hazard and risk into urban and infrastructure spatial planning. Wind and earthquake hazards are typically accommodated within building codes. For each of the countries the wind and earthquake PCRAFI hazard layers will be adjusted to be directly suitable for specific building code needs in each country.

The following (Figure 13) outlines the main steps that we propose to follow in developing a standard approach for assessing potential impacts of natural hazards and climate change and natural disasters in Pacific urban areas.

This framework follows a typical planning process that urban planners and decision-makers would use to determine priorities, make informed choices and allocate scarce resources to achieve agreed-upon objectives. It is acknowledged that there are many natural hazard and climate change planning approaches available but a key objective of the project is to promote the use of available data, tools and information. We consider the use of existing guides on approaches to planning for natural hazards and climate change to be part of that objective, and have identified a number of guides that we consider to be relevant to this project. One in particular is that developed by UN-Habitat (Planning for Climate Change, A Strategic, Values-Based Approach for Urban Planners, Version 1: For Field Testing and Piloting in Training, 2011).

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 47

Figure 13: Proposed framework and methodology for urban development planning.

48 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

This approach aims to support what planners can do to respond as climate change intensifies the already significant day-today challenges of planning and development. The approach fits well with the intentions of the current project with a focus on (UNHABITAT, 2011):

1. Provide planners with practical tools for addressing climate change through different urban planning processes.

2. Help planners to better gauge, prioritize and plan for real, emerging and potential climate change impacts at the local level.

3. Support the “mainstreaming” of climate change planning at the local level into spatial, physical, sectoral and comprehensive development plans.

4. Promote an inclusive, participatory climate change planning process that integrates strategic planning, local area participation and good decision-making.

5. Support ongoing capacity building for urban planners and allied professionals.

It is intended to adapt aspects of this guide into our approach and use some of the tools in the demonstration study, with greater emphasis on using and incorporating tools and processes for not only considering climate change but also existing natural hazards in a risk- based approach.

4.2.2 Steps in developing the framework The project team will develop the framework for integrating hazard and climate change risks in to urban development planning primarily through application in the two demonstration sites with the key stakeholders, and fine-tune the framework through feedback from other key national government and infrastructure agencies, participants during the initial pilot training course and from the course participants during the training in the other countries (see next section).

The inception activities have not identified any substantial changes in what was envisaged for the demonstration studies at proposal stage. Table 16 outlines the planned implementation activities for developing the urban planning framework through the demonstration study. Much of this will be conducted by working alongside the in-country coordinators, and relevant colleagues, in Nadi (within Nadi Town Council) and Apia (Puma). SPC-SOPAC will provide much of the GIS support and development as part of this process.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 49

Table 16: Outline of implementation activities and proposed work streams for the demonstration component.

Steps Approach Involvement Key objectives Agree Discuss / finalise working approaches for the Project team Ensure national and stakeholder demonstration studies with the key partner SPC-SOPAC local buy-in to engagement agencies (Nadi Town Council and PUMA). improving the urban In-country planning process. With key partner agencies identify and involve key coordinators stakeholders. Develop integrated involvement across key stakeholders (NDMO, Planning, Climate Change and Infrastructure/Public Works offices). Review urban Fully review existing urban planning documents, Project team Provide a stocktake development laws, regulations, and guidelines as well as future SPC-SOPAC of how plans urban development plans e.g., relevant sector development plans, Joint National Action Plans/National In-country planning is Adaptation Plans of Actions. national integrated across coordinators Review extent to which disaster management & sectors and climate change risks are incorporated into existing National & local inclusive of natural planning documentation. govt agencies hazard and climate- change risks. Gap analysis of Gap analysis of effectiveness of controlling Project team Strategic analysis development development in urban areas subject to hazards SPC-SOPAC of gaps in the planning such as weather, climate and inundation-related effective hazards. In-country development coordinators Review in-country situation cf. appropriate planning regimes in international best practice standards and National & local each country. regulatory tools. govt agencies. Determine the roles and co-ordination between Summary of the various authorities and agencies involved in planning hazard management and urban development. approaches that Assess whether planning timeframes are match institutional appropriate, particularly for climate change. capabilities. Summary of planning approaches considered and assessed against the institutional capabilities of the relevant authorities. Strategic site Strategic site analysis undertaken of the urban Project team To coalesce hazard analyses (Nadi demonstration sites including existing and SPC-SOPAC and development and Apia) proposed urban boundaries. planning In-country information on Develop partner’s capabilities to identify and national collate key relevant datasets. maps to facilitate an coordinators assessment of risk Collate in GIS all available hazard, asset and risk- Local council for different urban related information identified during the inception planners spatial phase & any further data and information. compartments. Develop processes and methodologies to incorporate data of existing and proposed Infrastructure development, assets and human populations onto agencies hazard maps, collated and derived from the range of hazard information available for each location, to determine the land uses and population at risk. Develop GIS-based processes and methods to define initial risk zones within use-type areas of each urban centre (e.g., commercial, settlements, tourism, business, residential) using risk screening and MCA methods, with input from RiskScape flood risk for Nadi.

50 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Steps Approach Involvement Key objectives Construct a Prepare an appropriate risk-based urban Project team To establish a risk- urban planning development framework with practical tools, “how SPC-SOPAC based framework development to” resources and examples from the case studies (and associated framework explicitly linked to the framework. In-country tools/resources) appropriate to national that is appropriately Framework will be sufficiently generic to be coordinators information applicable to all 6 Pacific Island countries. positioned with available and regard to existing institutional It will follow a hierarchy of guiding principles, information, needs capacity policies and standards or rules, which will be and level of skill- prepared. base in agencies. Consultation Determine approach and acceptable level of Stakeholders To get buy-in for with disaster and climate change risk through Project team the approach and stakeholders on integrated dialogue between stakeholders. underpinning SPC-SOPAC appropriateness Develop agreement on the guiding principles, principles from of the processes policies and standards or rules. In-country stakeholders and framework national an understanding of coordinators appetite for risk. Use the Working with local authorities and key Project team Creating awareness framework to stakeholders (e.g., infrastructure agencies), use SPC-SOPAC of the utility of the develop zoning the framework to provide a practical basis for risk-based planning plans and risk- developing zoning plans and design standards for In-country framework and reduction future development in the relevant urban area. national refining it from coordinators options Agree on appropriate planning time frames. feedback during its Local council use. Work with infrastructure agencies to help inform planners their plans and design standards. Infrastructure agencies

Identify different Option and prioritisation methodologies including Project team To enhance the general risk- multi-criteria analysis (MCA), developed and SPC-SOPAC capacity for reduction applied. Through working with inter-government analysing risk for options for each agencies, a staged and risk-centred approach, In-country different urban hazard and type involving a successive narrowing down and national zones for different of zoning refinement of the issues of concern, will be used coordinators hazards and to set priorities, to assess potential and identify Local council climate change , options which may significantly reduce hazard risk planners and developing and filter out any options which cannot provide Infrastructure viable options to significant benefit. agencies reduce risk.. Agreement on High level risk-reduction and adaptation strategic Project team To apply shared priorities for priorities will be agreed with the inter-government SPC-SOPAC values and reducing risk agencies in each of the pilots and these assessed objectives to in more detail based on an evaluation approach to In-country making sustainable, cost-benefit assessment better suited to assessing national risk-reduction high level strategic options. coordinators decisions about the Local council future development planners of an urban area. Infrastructure agencies Development of Development of the framework and associated Project team To enable the framework and tools in and simple to use, interactive, package. SPC-SOPAC processes and tools tool package to be used and developed in the future and in other locations.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 51

The result will be a risk-based planning framework, where consequences are the primary concern, and that becomes more restrictive as risk increases significantly in some areas, compared with other areas, within the wider urban centre. With a focus on risk management principles and processes, the framework assists planners by providing policy, smart-growth strategies and resource consent activity status criteria that enable hazard risks to be categorised and assimilated via risk-based land-use planning.

4.3 Capacity building and awareness component

4.3.1 Draft outline for a training programme for risk-based urban development planning The Pacific Disaster Risk Management Programme (PDRMP) is coordinated by the Disaster Reduction Programme within SPC-SOPAC. It has been supported since 1995 by The Asia Foundation and USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance. From the end of 2013 The Asia Foundation will cease to have a role in supporting the programme with SPC- SOPAC taking full ownership of delivering the training programmes. A new strategy for DRM training for 2013 and beyond is being developed internally within SPC-SOPAC. This also requires future funding to be secured for the continued offering of the courses.

The current PDRM programme offers eight courses (Table 17) which vary in duration from 2 to 5 days. The Risk Programme Management course has not been run for a number of years.

Table 17: Summary of existing disaster-related training courses coordinated by the Disaster Programme at SPC-SOPAC.

Course Course duration Introduction to disaster management 3 Initial damage assessment 2 Introduction to disaster risk reduction 3 Evacuation centre management 2 Emergency operation centres 5 Exercise management 5 Training for instructors 5 Risk programme management 5

Of most relevance to the current activities is the Introduction to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) course. This course was first run in Samoa in July 2012 and is designed to provide an introduction to the fundamental concepts of risk reduction, including how risk is identified and how appropriate reduction or management measures are selected, financed and implemented. Since the course was launched it has also been run in Fiji, Solomon Islands, Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia and also for staff within SPC. Before the end of 2013 the course will also be run in the Marshall Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu.

The DRR course provides the introductory level information upon which future training course for risk-based urban planning can build on. By the end of 2013 this course will have run in five of the six countries involved in this project.

52 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

From initial discussions with the SPC-SOPAC Senior Adviser for DRM training and capacity building the following suggestions were made with respect to planning the development of the Strengthening risk-based urban development planning course:

The training course is developed into a generic form and first trailed in each country then adapt to country by tailoring it based on feedback.

An Instructor Guide also needs to be developed.

An executive briefing for the course is also very useful as an advocacy tool to ensure that the right in-country participants are identified and allowed to attend by their various line ministries.

Ideally the pilot study would be written in such a way that it outlines the process step by step and builds it into the training manual.

SPC-SOPAC will need to factor the training courses into the SOPAC training programme for next year with some flexibility in the timing of the training activities required to fit with other commitments.

It is envisages that the training package to be developed would include:

Executive briefing.

Instructor booklet.

Participant booklet.

Training presentations.

Any supporting information and materials associated with the course and case studies.

At this (inception) stage some flexibility is required in developing the course specifics. The experience developed through the demonstration studies will be essential to inform the specific course content. However, a draft outline of the envisaged course in the same format as the other eight SPC-SOPAC coordinated DRM courses, is provided below.

Course Description The Strengthening risk-based urban development planning course is designed to develop the capabilities of planning, infrastructure, asset management and disaster management staff. The course utilises Pacific examples (Nadi and Apia) to illustrate how existing hazard and associated information can be translated in to risk-based information to support a range of planning-related decision-making in urban areas. Participants will develop an understanding of how available data can be used to improve and increase the resilience of urban areas to the effects on natural hazards and climate change.

Course objectives Upon completion of the course, participants will have developed the knowledge to:

Identify and access available country-specific hazard information/datasets of relevance to development planning in urban areas.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 53

Analyse information on hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks facing urban areas.

Identify opportunities for urban land-use planning to reduce natural-hazard related risk.

Identify, use and apply suitable risk-based decision-making tools and processes for urban planning-related decision-making.

Target Audience This course is designed for land use and urban development planners, infrastructure engineers, asset managers and national disaster managers involved in infrastructure, land use and urban planning.

Content
Identifying, accessing and using available hazard and risk-relevant information.

Understanding hazard, exposure and risk in urban areas.

Development and infrastructure planning in urban areas.

Use and application of risk-based decision-making tools and processes in urban planning and related decision-making.

Case study application using the demonstration studies in Nadi and Apia.

4.3.2 Training programme testing and roll out The draft training programme will be tested initially within SPC-SOPAC and with key staff from Fiji and Samoa involved with the demonstration study. Feedback from this trial will be incorporated and the course revised prior to initial roll out. The training course will also be developed into a generic form and trailed in each country, then adapted to each country based on feedback for future offerings of the course.

The specific delivery of the training course to the four other countries still needs to be finalised. Where possible the course will be held in all four countries to enable a wider number of representatives from relevant stakeholders to be involved. Further discussions are required to be held with staff from the PDRM training programme in SPC-SOPAC as to whether this will be feasible within the available budgets. If necessary it may be required to combine two countries in to one course. The course delivery will be carried out by the training and capacity building staff of the PDRM training programme.

54 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

5 Technical Assistance implementation, proposed workplan and timelines

5.1 Introduction The approach and methodology presented in the original technical proposal have been reassessed and confirmed that they still remain appropriate. The tasks and activities prescribed in the terms of reference were also reviewed and confirmed as relevant to the study under the Technical Assistance (TA).

This Section presents an updated work plan and personnel schedule at the activity level. It also reports on the progress made to date in terms of logistic arrangements for implementing the TA during the remaining course of the assignment.

Both demonstration studies locations initially identified (Apia and Nadi) have been discussed and agreed with the key Government Ministries (Department of Town and Country Planning, Ministry of Local Government, Urban Development, Housing and Environment in Fiji, and Planning and Urban Management Unity of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in Samoa). Letters have now been received by ADB from both the Ministry of Finance in Fiji and Samoa, with no objections to the proposed case studies.

5.2 Counterpart staff The inception activities have confirmed the involvement of key counterpart staff from the Disaster Risk Programme in SPC-SOPAC. Key staff involved will be:

Senior Adviser, DRM Training and Capacity Building (training course development guidance and roll out).

Risk Reduction Officer / Risk Information Systems Officer (demonstration activities).

Senior Risk Reduction Adviser (demonstration activities and overall liaison).

Discussions are ongoing with SPC-SOPAC over the how the particular aspects of the demonstration study will be implemented. In addition to the Project Team working with their SPC-SOPAC counterparts, there may also be times when key SPC-SOPAC staff spend time with the Project Team in New Zealand.

At the time of writing, the contract between ADB and SPC-SOPAC is still being developed. Whilst it is anticipated that this will be concluded shortly any delay to this process, and more specifically, the contracting of the in-country liaison staff (see below), would delay commencement of the demonstration activities in the two countries.

The project will also support a position for a total of four months in each of the demonstration countries to act as the liaison person in each of the key departments (Nadi Town Council and PUMA). This position will be contracted by SPC-SOPAC. Discussions have agreed that the liaison persons would ideally already be in place in each of the above agencies with preferably some planning background and/or GIS capacity. It is not intended to commence the demonstration activities in-country until the two liaison officers are in place.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 55

5.3 Logistical arrangements SPC-SOPAC have kindly made available a desk for use by the project team within the Disaster Risk Programme office when they are in Suva. This is in the same office that the key SPC-SOPAC counterpart team members are located and has adequate space and access to internet for the project activities in Suva.

It is anticipated that during the demonstration study activities, the project team would be based when in country in the relevant planning departments. This has not yet been discussed with Nadi Town Council. Initial discussions have been held with PUMA staff in Samoa with it indicated that suitable office space would be available within the PUMA office.

5.4 Personnel schedule No changes are envisaged in the personnel agreed during contract negotiations with ADB. Some minor readjustments of the relative time contributions of the team members may be required depending on the particular circumstances in each of the two demonstration studies and this will be monitored and revised if necessary during the course of the assignment. Depending on the discussions with SPC-SOPAC, there may need to be some small amount of additional GIS support provided from within NIWA.

5.5 Work plan and milestones The TA commenced on 12 August 2013. An updated work plan to that presented in the technical proposal is shown in Figure 14 with key milestones summarised in Table 18. It is likely that an effort will be made to complete the Samoan case study by the end of June 2014 given the disruption likely in the build-up to the Small Islands Development States conference being held in Samoa in September 2014.

It is still anticipated that all significant components of the project will be completed by 20 May 2015. The only exception to this may be the awareness raising activities associated with presentations or side events at relevant regional fora. This will depend on the timing of these events (many of which tend to be held in the third or early fourth quarter of each calendar year). Appropriate events at appropriate times will be identified in discussion with ADB and SPC-SOPAC during the course of this project and the work plan updated or revised if need be.

Table 18: Summary of key milestones.

Milestone Number of days Date Assumptions from Project commencement Inception report submitted 25 4 October 2013 1st quarterly report 60 8 November 2013 2nd quarterly report 151 7 February 2014 3rd quarterly report 242 9 May 2014 Mid-term report (& 4th quarterly 333 8 August 2014 report) Draft case study reports 371 15 September 2014 Assuming feedback received Final case study reports 417 31 October 2014 on draft by 3 October 2014.

56 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Milestone Number of days Date Assumptions from Project commencement Draft Strengthening risk-based urban development planning 417 31 October 2014 training package developed. 5th quarterly report 424 7 November 2014 6th quarterly report 522 13 February 2015 Draft final report 578 10 April 2015 Finalisation of Strengthening risk- Based on feedback from initial based urban development planning 598 30 April 2015 course implementation training package. activities. Assuming feedback received Final report 618 20 May 2015 on draft by 30 April 2015.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 57

Figure 14: Revised project implementation work plan.Solid bars indicate periods when activities will be primarily conducted in-country (Fiji/Samoa) with exact timing to be agreed on with in-country partners. Suitable awareness activities to present the activities will be identified in discussion with ADB/SPC-SOPAC. It is likely that such activities will occur in the second half of 2014 and/or 2015.

58 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

6 Conclusions Based on the inception activities the following conclusions and recommendations are made:

Technical
There are sufficient datasets available to adequately demonstrate how different levels of natural hazard, risk and supporting information can be incorporated in to risk-based urban and infrastructure planning and decision-making in the two demonstration sites (Nadi and Apia).

In reviewing the available PCRAFI datasets, the regional nature of the study and resulting outputs means that great care needs to be taken in the use and application of the datasets for localised decision-making. This has resulted in datasets that would have been applicable for more localised decision-making either not being included in the outputs or in a form that is not appropriate. Specifically:

Key hazard datasets (notably tsunami, flood and storm surge inundation layers) are not available.

Derived risk datasets have been aggregated to a coarse spatial level for each country (essentially district levels). This spatial scale is generally much larger than most urban areas and substantially reduces the usefulness of the risk datasets for urban and local land use, infrastructure or other localised decision-making.

Results for the risk assessments have been combined for multiple hazards and associated loss data for: 1) earthquakes and tsunami collectively, and 2) cyclone wind, storm surge and flood inundation collectively. Again this aggregation for multiple hazards substantially reduces the effectiveness of the risk information for localised decision-making, as different planning approaches are used to mitigate or reduce different types of hazard (e.g., wind versus inundation hazards).

The risk-based approach adopted by PCRAFI does have substantial applicability, and provides a framework for developing suitable approaches for informing and supporting more robust urban planning decision-making.

Both demonstration urban areas and countries have a range of existing and proposed urban related legislation, policy and plans that offer good opportunities to test out the standard planning methodology and approach for incorporating natural disaster and climate change risk considerations in urban development.

Logistical
No changes are envisaged in the personnel agreed during contract negotiations with ADB. Some minor readjustments of the relative time contributions of the team members may be required depending on the particular circumstances in each of the two demonstration studies and this will be monitored and revised if necessary during the course of the assignment.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 59

It is still anticipated that all significant components of the project will be completed by 20 May 2015. The only exception to this may be the awareness raising activities associated with presentations or side events at relevant regional fora. This will depend on the timing of these events (many of which tend to be held in the third or early fourth quarter of each calendar year).

The two demonstration study sites have been identified (Nadi in Fiji, and Apia in Samoa) and agreed on with the two central planning agencies in both countries. Some further discussions still need to be held with the Nadi Town Council and Commissioner, Western Division Office in Fiji to further discuss the practical aspects of their involvement and implementation of the project.

The TA project team are reluctant to start in-country aspects of the demonstration activities until the contract between ADB and SPC-SOPAC has been finalised and SPC-SOPAC have agreed and recruited the two in-country liaison officers in the counterpart planning agencies in Samoa and Fiji. It is anticipated that these activities will be concluded shortly but if this has not been organised by 30 November 2013 this will impact on potential delivery of the demonstration aspect. This will particularly be the case for Samoa, where there is a desire to complete the activities before the middle part of next year when efforts related to the organisation of the Small Islands Development States conference in September 2014 will consume much Government staff time.

60 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

7 Acknowledgements The NZ-based project team members would like to thank all stakeholders who took time to discuss the project with us during the visits to Fiji and Samoa.

We would also like to thank Sarah Mecartney for sharing her vast experience with the project team of urban planning in the Pacific region and for assistance with relevant contacts in both Fiji and Samoa.

We would particularly like to thank Litea Biukoto for all her enthusiasm, help and efforts in assisting the NZ-based project team members both when we were in-country and remotely and for putting up with our considerable requests.

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 61

8 References

8.1 Citations in Report Abhas, K.J. (Ed.) (2012) Building urban resilience: Principles, tools and practice. Report on managing the risks of disasters in East Asia and the Pacific, World Bank: 155.

Asian Development Bank (2012) The State of Pacific Towns and Cities. Urbanization in ADB’s Pacific Developing Member Countries. Publication Stock No. RPS124632.

Asian Development Bank (2005) Climate Proofing. A risk based approach to adaptation. Pacific Studies series. Asian Development Bank, Manila.

Damlamian, H. (2013) Tsunami inundation modelling for evacuation mapping. Nuku'alofa, Kingdom of Tonga. Draft report. Secretariat of the Pacific Community Applied Science and Technology Division.

Gibb, J.G.(2001) Assessment of Coastal Hazard Zones for the Islands of Samoa. Report prepared for the Department of Lands, Surveys and Environment, Government of Samoa. ME 2001; C.R. 2001/5/I.

Hammill, A., Tanner, T. (2011) Harmonising climate risk management: adaptation screening and assessment tools for development co-operation. Environment Working Paper, No. 36, Environment Directorate, OECD: 52.

JICA (1998) The study on watershed management and flood control for the four major Viti Levu rivers in the Republic of Fiji Islands. Final report, October 1998.

Kruger, J., Damlamian, H. (2013) Coastal hazards. Lifuka, Ha'apai, Kingdom of Tonga. Draft report. Secretariat of the Pacific Community Applied Science and Technology Division.

Lumbroso, D., Titimaea, A., Penaia, A., Bonte-Grapentin, M. (2006a) Technical Report: Capacity Building in Flood Risk Management. ER0069a.

Lumbroso, D., Titimaea, A., Penaia, A., Bonte-Grapentin, M. (2006b) Training Report: Capacity Building in Flood Risk Management. ER0069b.

McGree, S., Yeo, S.W, Devi, S. (2010) Flood in the Fiji islands between 1840 and 2009, Risk Frontiers, October 2010.

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Pearson, C., Smart, G. (2013) Inception report for Nadi River flood risk assessment project. Prepared for Applied Geoscience & Technology Division (SOPAC) of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC). NIWA Report CHC2013-086, August 2013.

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PUMA (2012) Vaitele Sustainable Management Plan. Prepared by Nicole Donnison for the Planning & Urban Management Agency (PUMA) and United Nations Development Program (UNDP), under the Vaitele Urban Governance Pilot Project (VUGPP), February 2012.

Ramsay, D.L., Lefale, P. (2010) Informing climate risk management in the South Pacific. Scoping Assessment. Report for New Zealand Ministry for Environment. NIWA Report HAM2010-073.

Ramsay, D.L., Stephens, S., Gorman, R., Oldman, J., Bell, R. (2010) Kiribati Adaptation Project. Phase II: Climate Information for Risk Management. Sea- levels, waves, run-up and overtopping. Report prepared for the Government of Kiribati. NIWA Report HAM2008-22. September, 2008, Updated June 2010.

Ramsay, D.L. (2012) Geospatial framework for climate change adaptation in the coastal zone. Cook islands coastal calculator: User Manual. Report prepared for the Ministry for Infrastructure and Planning, Cook islands. NIWA Report HAM2012-044, May 2012.

Ramsay, D.L., Carey-Smith, T., Mullan, B. (2013) Fiji extreme rainfall and sea level calculator. User manual and technical background. Report prepared for the Land and Water Management Division, Ministry of Primary Industries, Fiji (Draft).

Shorten, G.G., Goosby, S., Granger, K., Lindsay, K., Naidu, P., Oliver, S., Stewart, K., Titov, V., Walker, G. (2003) Catastrophe insurance pilot project, Port Vila, Vanuatu: Developing risk-management options for disasters in the Pacific region. SOPAC Joint Contribution Report: 147.

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Thompson, C., Mullan, B., Burgess, S. (2010) Kiribati Adaptation Project. Phase II: Climate Information for Risk Management. High intensity rainfall and drought. Report prepared for the Government of Kiribati. NIWA Report WLG2008-12, July, 2008.

Trustrum, N.A., Whitehouse, I.E., Blaschke, P.M. (1989) Flood and landslide hazard, Northern Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands. Dept. of Land & Soil Sciences Contract Report 89/07, Dept. of Scientific and Industrial Research, NZ, prepared for UN Technical Cooperation for Development, New York, 6/89 SOI/87/001.

Trustrum, N.A., Whitehouse, I.E., Blaschke, P.M., Stephens, P.R. (1990) Flood and landslide hazard mapping, Solomon Islands. In: Ziemer, R.R., O’Loughlin, C.L., Hamilton, L.S. (Eds.). Research needs and applications to reduce erosion and sedimentation in tropical steeplands, IAHS Publication, 192: 138–146.

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Turner, D. (2009) Pacific HYCOS Mission Fiji Flood Response – Nadi/BA. Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission. Pacific HYCOS Project. SOPAC. January–February 2009.

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8.2 Bibliography (general and individual countries) General Abhas, K.J., Bloch, R., Lamond, J. (2012) Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century and A Summary for Policy Makers. World Bank.

Andrade Pérez, Á., Fernández, B., Gatti, R. (Eds.) (2010) Building Resilience to Climate Change: Ecosystem-based adaptation and lessons from the field. International Union for Conservation of Nature; Gland, Switzerland. 2010.

Asian Development Bank (2010) Climate Change in the Pacific Stepping Up Responses in the Face of Rising Impacts. Publication Stock No. ARM102724.

Asian Development Bank (2012) The State of Pacific Towns and Cities. Urbanization in ADB’s Pacific Developing Member Countries. Publication Stock No. RPS124632.

C.T.H.M. Terwisscha van Scheltinga, van Geene, J., Gordijn, F., Jaspers, A.M.J., Argaw, M. (2010) Training on Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture and Natural Resources Management. Integrating Climate Change in Policy making for Sustainable Development. Centre for Development Innovation, Wageningen University & Research Centre.

Environmental Management Bureau, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Phillipines (2012) Climate Proofing for Development. A Training Toolkit.

European Union (2011) Consultative Guidelines for Sustainable Urban Development Co-Operation. New Perspectives for Urban Development. A Strategic Approach.

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GIZ Climate Protection Program (2011) Integrating climate change adaptation into development planning. A practice-oriented training based on an OECD Policy Guidance. Training Manual.

McNamara, K.E., Hemstock, S.L., Holland, E.A. (2012) PACE-SD Guidebook: Participatory Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development (PACE-SD) The University of the South Pacific Suva, Fiji.

Mukheibir, P., Ziervogel, G. (2006) Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Cape Town (FAC4T). Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town.

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Saunders, W.S.A., Beban, J.G., Kilvington, M. (2013) Risk-based approach to land use planning. GNS Science Miscellaneous Series 67: 97.

Shaw, R., Colley, M., Connell, R. (2007) Climate change adaptation by design: A guide for sustainable communities. TCPA, London.

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UNISDR (2013) Making Cities Resilient: Summary for Policymakers. A global snapshot of how local governments reduce disaster risk.

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United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) (2011) Global report on human settlements. Cities and Climate Change. UN-HABITAT Regional & Information Offices; Nairobi, Kenya. Fiji Anderson, P., Carruthers, T., Chape, S., Durbin, T., Hills, T., Rao, N.S., Jungblut, V., Saxby, T., Sivo, L. (2012) An economic analysis of ecosystem-based adaptation and engineering options for climate change adaptation in Lami Town, Republic of the Fiji Islands. Technical report. A technical report by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme.

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Ministry of Local Government Urban Development Housing & Environment (2013) Annual Corporate Plan. Ministry of Local Government, Urban Development, Housing & Environment; Fiji. January 2013.

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The Fiji Times Online (2009) Nadi dredging works on schedule. December 06, 2009.

The Fiji Times Online (2012) Nadi underwater by 2030. April 15, 2012.

Turner, D. (2009) Pacific HYCOS Mission Fiji Flood Response – Nadi/BA. Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission. Pacific HYCOS Project. SOPAC. January–February 2009.

Waugh, B. (2012) Nadi Basin flood assessment March 2012. National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) Client Report HAM2012-109 prepared for SOPAC, June 2012: 29.

United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) (2013) Fiji: Nadi Urban Profile. UN-HABITAT Regional & Information Offices; Nairobi, Kenya.

Papua New Guinea Anon (2011) Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative. Country Profile: Papua New Guinea.

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United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) (2010) Papua New Guinea: Goroka City Profile. UN-HABITAT Regional & Information Offices; Nairobi, Kenya.

United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) (2010) Papua New Guinea: Kokopo City Profile. UN-HABITAT Regional & Information Offices; Nairobi, Kenya.

United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) (2012) Papua New Guinea: National Urban Profile. UN-HABITAT Regional & Information Offices; Nairobi, Kenya.

United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) (2010) Papua New Guinea: Port Moresby Urban Profile. UN-HABITAT Regional & Information Offices; Nairobi, Kenya.

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Samoa Anon (2004) Planning and Urban Management Act 2004.

Anon (2011) Pacific catastrophic risk assessment and financing initiative. Country Profile: Samoa.

Donnison, N. (2012) Vaitele sustainable management plan. Prepared for the Planning & Urban Management Agency (PUMA) and United Nations Development Program (UNDP), under the Vaitele Urban Governance Pilot Project (VUGPP). February 2012.

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Jones, P., Taulealo, T., Kohlhase, J. (2002) Growing Pacific Towns and Cities - Samoa's new planning and urban management system. Planning Institute of Australia Journal, Volume 39, No 4. Canberra, Australia.

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Kellogg, Brown and Root Pty (2006) Institutional strengthening for drainage and wastewater management in Apia, Samoa – Interim report – October 2006

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PUMA (2006) Draft Sustainable Management Plan (No. 1) - Guidelines for the Development of Land Adjoining Rivers, Streams and on Flood Prone Land and Priority Actions for Mitigating Drainage Impacts in the Catchments of Urban Apia PUMA report September 2006.

PUMA (2006) Housing guidelines. Planning and Urban Management Agency Planning Policy report.

PUMA (2009) Development consent application - Frequently asked questions answered. Planning Information Sheet. IS09-002, April 2009.

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PUMA (2013) Apia Urban Spatial Plan. Draft 19 September 2013.

Rasmussen, A., McGoldrick, W. (Eds.) (2011) Samoa’s second national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Young, W.J. (2007) Climate risk profile for Samoa. Samoa Meteorological Division report. Solomon Islands Albert, S., Grinham, A., Bythell, J., Olds, A., Schwarz, A., Abernethy, K., Aranani, K., Sirikolo, M., Watoto, C. Duke, N., McKenzie, J., Roelfsema, C., Liggins, L., Brokovich, E., Pantos, O., Oeta, J., Gibbes, B. (2010) Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Roviana, Solomon Islands. The University of Queensland, Brisbane.

Anon (2011) Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative. Country Profile: Solomon Islands.

Hofstetter, A., Shapira, A., Bulehite, K., Jones, T., Mafi, K., Malitzky, A., Papabatu, A., Prasad, G., Regnier, M., Shorten, G., Singh, A., Stephen, M., Vuetibau, L. (2000) Frequency-magnitude relationships for seismic areas around the capital cities of Solomon, Vanuatu, Tonga and Fiji Islands. Journal of Seismology, 4: 285–296.

Lal, P.N.,Thurairajah, V. (2011) Making informed adaptation choices: A case study of climate proofing road infrastructure in the Solomon Islands. A background case study for IUCN’s report, Lal, P.N. (2011). Climate Change Adaptation in the Pacific: Making Informed Choices, prepared for the Australian Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE), IUCN, Suva, Fiji. Econnect Communication. November 2011.

McNaught, R., Vudi Ngatulu, C., Tego, G., Lewis-Nicholson, T. (2011) PASAP Regional Overview of Climate Change: The Adaptive Capacity of Pileni Island Community, Viakau Ward, Temotu Province, Solomon Islands. Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Australia. Econnect Communication. April 2011.

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Tonga Anon (2011) Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative. Country Profile: Tonga.

D’Este, G., Lomu, M., MacGeorge, R. (2010) Tonga National Infrastructure Investment Plan. His Majesty’s Government of the Kingdom of Tonga. Pacific Infrastructure Advisory Centre (PIAC); Sydney, Australia. October 2010.

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Hofstetter, A., Shapira, A., Bulehite, K., Jones, T., Mafi, K., Malitzky, A., Papabatu, A., Prasad, G., Regnier, M., Shorten, G., Singh, A., Stephen, M., Vuetibau, L. (2000) Frequency-magnitude relationships for seismic areas around the capital cities of Solomon, Vanuatu, Tonga and Fiji Islands. Journal of Seismology, 4: 285–296.

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Vanuatu Anon (2011) Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative. Country Profile: Vanuatu.

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Hofstetter, A., Shapira, A., Bulehite, K., Jones, T., Mafi, K., Malitzky, A., Papabatu, A., Prasad, G., Regnier, M., Shorten, G., Singh, A., Stephen, M., Vuetibau, L. (2000) Frequency-magnitude relationships for seismic areas around the capital cities of Solomon, Vanuatu, Tonga and Fiji Islands. Journal of Seismology, 4: 285–296.

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Prevot, R., Chatelain, J.L. (1984) Seismicity and earthquake risk in Vanuatu (Text), and 1983. Seismicity and seismic hazard in Vanuatu (Figures). ORSTOM Report. 5–83.

Regnier, M., Morris, S., Shapira, A., Malitsky, A., Shorten, G. (2000) Microzonation of the expected seismic site effects across Port Vila, Vanuatu. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 4(2): 215–231.

Schmall, S. (2003) Participatory vulnerability assessment and community mitigation planning: Development of a participatory approach for risk mitigation in peri- urban settlements of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Unpublished report to SOPAC.

Shorten, G.G. (2001) Seismic risk in Pacific cities: Implications for planning, building code legislation, and urban search and rescue services. Proceedings, Australian Earthquake Engineering Society Conference: Earthquakes in the Real World, Canberra, ACT, 7-9th November, 2001. AEES, Melbourne. 2.1-2.9.

Shorten, G.G. (2002) Pacific Cities urban planning and risk management: Port Vila and peri-urban areas case study. Proceedings, Sustainable Urban Services: PECC Sustainable Cities Noumea Seminar, Noumea, New Caledonia, 4-5th November, 2002. PCEE: 107–116.

Shorten, G.G. (2003) Challenges for the application of earthquake engineering in the Pacific Islands. Proceedings, PCEE 2003: 7th Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, NZ, 13–15th February, 2003. PCEE, Paper 150.

Shorten, G.G., Goosby, S., Granger, K., Lindsay, K., Naidu, P., Oliver, S., Stewart, K., Titov, V., Walker, G. (2003) Catastrophe insurance pilot project, Port Vila, Vanuatu: Developing risk-management options for disasters in the Pacific region. SOPAC Joint Contribution Report: 147.

Shorten, G.G., Schmall, S. (2003) Disaster risk management in marginal communities of Port Vila, Vanuatu: Project Summary. SOPAC Miscellaneous Report: 507.

Shorten, G.G., Schmall, S., Granger, K., Naidu, P. (2003) Blending custom knowledge and science to reduce risk in three settlements near Port Vila, Vanuatu. Proceedings, 2003 Australian Disaster Conference, Canberra, 10–12th September, 2003.

Shorten, G., Shapira, A., Regnier, M., Teakle, G., Biukoto, L., Swamy, M., Vuetibau, L. (Compilers) (2001) Site-specific earthquake hazard determinations in capital cities in the South Pacific. Second Edition. SOPAC Technical Report: 300.

70 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Appendix A Project terms of reference

Consultant Terms of Reference Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

A. Background

1. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC),20 and the World Bank jointly launched the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) in 2007 to increase the financial resilience of Pacific DMCs to natural disasters and to enable them to better cope with the aftermath of such events.21

2. Under the initial stage of PCRAFI, country-specific GIS datasets of buildings, major infrastructure, major crops, and population were identified and recorded. About 80,000 buildings and other infrastructure were physically inspected, and about 3 million buildings and assets mostly in rural areas, were inferred from satellite imagery. The PCRAFI also developed the region’s most comprehensive regional historical hazard catalog and historical loss database for major disasters, as well as country-specific hazard models that simulate earthquakes and tropical cyclones. The PCRAFI’s outputs also include risk maps showing the geographic distribution of potential losses for each Pacific Developing Member Country (DMC), as well as other visualization products of the risk assessments. The information is stored in the Pacific Risk Information System (PacRIS) housed at the SPC, and can be accessed through an open-source web-based platform.22

3. While the primary purpose of PCRAFI was initially to develop a regional catastrophe risk insurance pool to enhance the capacity of Pacific DMCs to manage natural disasters, during development of the PacRIS, it became apparent that this data also has significant value for other applications beyond disaster risk financing. A lack of climate and hazard exposure information has constrained progress in mainstreaming climate and disaster risk considerations into urban and infrastructure development planning, which is critical for safeguarding social and economic development gains in the region. As a result, Pacific DMCs have tended to respond to the symptoms of natural disaster events through relief and reconstruction efforts, rather than dealing with the root causes through better development planning. PacRIS contains information on (i) the probability of hazard events occurring in a particular location, (ii) the value and ownership of assets threatened by natural disasters and climate change, and (iii) information about the likely impacts of such events, which is critical for disaster and climate resilient development planning.

4. Next steps under PCRAFI include a sub-regional catastrophe insurance pilot scheme involving the Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu, which was recently launched by the World Bank. The ADB has secured a $0.65 million grant through the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction to develop an approach for use of PacRIS data, combined with other available climate change and natural disaster risk information and tools, e.g., such as the Pacific Climate Futures web-tool, to promote more resilient urban planning and development in Pacific DMCs. The TA will also build the capacity of planners and decision- makers in Pacific DMCs to acquire and apply this information to evaluate and address natural disaster and climate change risks in urban planning and development.

20 Through SPC’s Applied Geoscience and Technology Division. 21 ADB support for the PCRAFI was provided under ADB. 2008. Technical Assistance for Regional Partnerships for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Preparedness. Manila (TA 6496-REG). 22 PacRIS can be accessed using the following weblink: http://paris.sopac.org. Further background information on PCRAFI can be found using the following weblink: http://pcrafi.sopac.org/

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 71

B. Objective

5. The objective of the consulting assignment is to promote the use of available data, tools and information, including PacRIS data developed under PCRAFI, to effectively address natural disaster and climate change risks in urban planning and development in Pacific DMCs. This will be achieved through the development of a standard approach and methodology for assessing the potential impacts of climate change and natural disasters in Pacific DMC urban centers, to be pilot tested using 2 case study countries under the TA. The TA will also build the capacity of Pacific urban planners and decision-makers to use available data and tools to promote natural disaster and climate resilient urban development in Pacific DMCs.

6. The TA will cover six Pacific DMCs including: Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu. Two of these countries will be selected during TA implementation as case study countries to demonstrate the application of PacRIS and other natural disaster and climate change risk information for urban development planning applications. Training and awareness activities will be carried out in all 6 participating countries.

7. The consultants will ensure that all technical assistance (TA) work and outputs are fully compliant with relevant ADB policies and guidelines. The consulting team will be required to coordinate and work closely with SPC in Suva, Fiji, which will also be implementing TA activities. In order to promote a high level of coordination with SPC in the development of TA outputs and ensure adequate access to PacRIS data, the Risk Specialist/Team Leader and Urban Planner will spend a portion of their field time based at SOPAC in Suva, Fiji.

C. Specific Tasks

Inception Phase

(i) Background Analysis

a. Assessment of urban development context in Pacific islands, including analysis of: - Key natural disaster and climate change vulnerabilities facing urban areas. - Urban planning challenges. - Capacity to undertake urban and infrastructure planning and natural disaster and climate change risk assessment.

b. Stock take and assessment of available natural disaster and climate change risk data, information and tools including a review of: - Data contained in PacRIS. - Other existing climate change and natural disaster risk data, e.g., Pacific Climate Futures tool, for the Pacific region. - Other sources of information and data that exist in Pacific DMCs to support risk assessment work e.g., tidal data, rainfall records etc. - Existing climate change and natural disaster risk screening and decision-making tools applicable for urban development analysis.

(ii) Preliminary selection of 2 case study countries to be discussed and agreed upon with SPC and ADB. (iii) Development of framework and methodology for analysis of natural disaster and climate risks, and associated impacts in urban areas, and options analysis for building resilience to natural disaster and climate change risks. (iv) Preparation of draft outline for the training manual, which will provide guidance to Pacific DMC urban and sector planners and other stakeholders on how to assess disaster and climate change risks and how to integrate these into urban development planning to build resilience to natural disasters and climate change. The training manual will be developed with inputs from SPC’s disaster risk management training specialist. (v) A draft inception report will be prepared that outlines the detailed work plan of the consulting team (including inputs provided by SPC specialists), including the timeline and

72 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

approach for case studies preparation, the training manual preparation, and capacity building and awareness activities delivery.

Pilot Testing Phase

(vi) Development and application of standard methodology and approach for evaluating and addressing natural disaster and climate change risks in urban development in 2 case study countries. The following will be carried out in each case study country:

a. Stock take of existing urban sector development policies, plans and regulations, and associated institutions. The consultants will meet with government agencies involved in urban planning and urban infrastructure development, disaster management, and climate change. The consultants will take stock of existing urban sector planning documents, including investment urban master plans and land use plans, and will review existing zoning regulations, building controls, design standards, and environmental impact assessment requirements. National and urban sector climate change policies will also be reviewed, and the extent to which disaster and climate change priorities are reflected in planning documents will also be evaluated. The consultants will also assess institutional capacities of relevant authorities to implement urban and sector plans, screen investments, and enforce development controls. An institutional assessment will also examine the roles of national, local, and urban and sector agencies, and coordination between agencies.

b. Strategic site analysis for urban planning. The consultants will determine the area covered by urban development plans based on administrative boundaries and will carry out a strategic site analysis to identify existing urban land uses, both legal and illegal (e.g., major infrastructure, such as roads and utility works, and informal settlements). The consultants will also take into account any new major developments that have not yet been included in the PacRIS asset database.

c. Strategic analysis of key urban sector infrastructure and services. The consultants will carry out an assessment of key sector infrastructure and services, taking into account any new major sector infrastructure investments that have not yet been included in the PacRIS asset database.

d. Disaster and climate risk mapping and assessment. Using PacRIS data, models and risk maps, and other available natural disaster and climate risk information, the consultants will to assess climate and disaster risks by mapping natural disaster events and climate change scenarios according to probabilities of occurrence. The consultants will use scenario-based planning to examine a discrete set of disaster and climate scenarios that are most relevant for local urban and sector development planning in the case study countries. Disaster and climate impacts will be assessed over time in selected urban areas and sectors, including the risks associated with specific land uses and assets in various locations. High risk areas, anticipated changes in impacts over time resulting from climate change, projected population growth, and human settlement and economic development patterns will all be identified. Known uncertainties in the models and how these should be reflected in the development of recommendations for updating urban and sector policies, plans, and regulations will also be identified.

e. Development framework. In consultation with stakeholders, acceptable levels of disaster and climate risk will be established to guide policies, standards, and development priorities. Based on identified risks, recommendations will be provided on how urban and sector planning processes and plans can be strengthened to reflect these risks, including (i) types of development that should take place within various urban zones, including appropriate locations for specific land uses; (ii) proposed requirements for disaster and climate risk assessment for all new developments; (iii) minimum design standards for permitted development within designated zones; and (iv) proposed retrofitting measures for key infrastructure that is assessed as being highly vulnerable to climate and disaster risks. Based on these recommendations, the consultants will propose modifications to

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 73

existing urban development policies, land use plans and associated zoning regulations, building codes, and infrastructure design standards, including how proposed measures should be prioritized. The consultants will also identify obstacles which may impede the strengthening of planning processes, such as customary ownership of land located in urban areas. f. Identification of disaster and climate-proofing measures for selected urban infrastructure. Based on climate and disaster risk assessments and levels of acceptable risk, the consultants will develop possible disaster and climate resilience strengthening measures. These measures may include the siting of infrastructure and the incorporation of climate-proofing measures into infrastructure engineering designs and maintenance requirements to promote the sustainability of sector investments. g. Economic analysis of proposed measures to build disaster and climate change resilience. An economic analysis of proposed measures to build resilience to natural disaster and climate change-related events will be conducted. The economic analysis will examine priority disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation measures for urban planning and development. h. Presentation of findings to stakeholders. The consultants will present draft findings, including results of the climate and disaster risk assessments and recommendations, to in-country stakeholders, government and nongovernment representatives, and development partners. Based on the feedback received during consultations, recommendations will be revised and expanded on, as needed.

Capacity Building and Awareness-Raising Phase

(vii) Development of natural disaster and climate risk screening training manual.

a. A training manual will be prepared which provides a clear step-by-step approach for applying the standard methodology for integrating disaster and climate risks into urban planning and investment processes. b. Case study summaries will be included in the training manual containing best practices and lessons learned in the development of country case studies. c. The consultant will update outputs to reflect comments provided by the expert peer reviewer.

(viii) Conducting training and awareness activities

a. Following the completion of country case studies and development of the training manual, the consultants in collaboration with SPC will organize a training activity in each of the six participating countries to (i) build national capacity to access PacRIS and existing climate change data; (ii) apply natural disaster and climate change risk information to urban planning and development processes; and (iii) share the findings from the case studies. The national training activities will target a wide range of country policy makers, including representatives from central and line agencies, urban and local councils, utilities, nongovernment organizations, the private sector, and development partners. The consultants will work with SPC in the design and delivery of training activities. b. The consultants will participate in selected regional climate and disaster events to raise awareness among a wide range of Pacific DMC policymakers, nongovernment representatives, and development partners on the existence and practical use of PacRIS data and tools, and how these can be used to support disaster and climate resilient urban development.

D. Required Experts

8. A total of four international consultants over a 24-month period are required for a total of 14.0 person-months of input, to be recruited through a consulting firm. The international consultants will include (i) a risk specialist—team leader (7.0 person-months, intermittent); (ii) an urban planner (4.0 person-months, intermittent); (iii) a civil engineer (1.0 person-months, intermittent); and (iv) economist (2.0 person-months, intermittent).

74 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

9. The consultant team will work closely with the SPC disaster risk management training, and risk mapping specialists. SPC will also recruit an in-country national coordinator in both case study countries to provide on the ground support to the consulting team for the preparation of case studies. SOPAC will assist the consulting team to liaise with country officials in each of the 6 Pacific DMCs to organize training activities.23

E. Consultant Qualifications

10. Team Leader–Risk Specialist (international, 7 person-months, intermittent). The team leader–risk specialist will have an advanced degree in engineering, science, or other relevant field from an internationally-recognized university. The specialist will have at least 10 years of relevant professional experience, including experience working in development countries, carrying out natural disaster and climate change risk vulnerability assessments, and leading multi-disciplinary teams. The specialist’s experience will also include the development of risk- based decision-making tools for climate change adaptation and natural disaster mitigation. The team leader will take overall responsibility for ensuring quality outputs are produced under the TA according to agreed milestones, and will prepare and reports according the agreed schedule based on inputs provided from other consultants and SPC. The team leader will also provide guidance and coordinate the inputs of other consultants.

11. Urban Planner (international, 4 person-months, intermittent). The consultant will hold post-graduate qualifications in urban planning, geography or other relevant field from an internationally-recognized university, with at least 10 years of applied urban planning experience, including working with local planning authorities in developing countries. In particular, the expert will have experience working with local authorities to identify and address natural disaster and climate change risks in urban planning processes, such as in the development of land-use and zoning plans.

12. Civil Engineer (international, 1 person-month, intermittent). The consultant will hold a degree in civil engineering from an internationally-recognized university. The consultant will have at least 5 years of experience in the planning and design of urban infrastructure, in particular, the consultant will have significant experience preparing incorporating natural disaster mitigation and/or climate change adaptation measures into engineering designs.

13. Economist (international, 2 person-months, intermittent). The consultant will hold a master’s degree in economics from an internationally-recognized university, and have at least 5 years of experience conducting applied economic analyses of urban planning and/or infrastructure investments, including experience carrying out cost-benefit analysis of natural disaster mitigation and climate change adaption measures.

F. Reporting

14. The consultants will report to ADB and work closely with SPC under the overall guidance from the TA steering committee. All reports will be submitted to the steering committee for endorsement. The reporting schedule will be as follows:

a. Inception report. Six weeks after the mobilization of consultant team, an inception report will be prepared and submitted to the steering committee for review. The report will discuss any needed changes in the terms of reference, and will include a detailed work plan for TA implementation. The report will also propose a preliminary methodology and approach for carrying out the case studies, and an outline for the training manual. b. Mid-term report. The mid-term report will discuss TA progress and will include the draft training manual including case study outputs. c. Final report. The report will include a final version of the training manual to be updated based on the outcomes of capacity building and training activities carried out in the target countries.

23 Remuneration of national country coordinators will be funded under SPC contract.

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Quarterly reports. Brief summary reports will be prepared which provide updates on TA implementation progress on a quarterly basis.

76 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific

Appendix B In-country consultations held

Date Organisation Attendees Position 20 Aug 2013 Applied Science and Mosese Sikivou Director, Disaster Risk Programme Technology Division, Litea Biukoto Senior Adviser Risk Reduction Secretariat of the Pacific Paula Holland Senior Economist Community Susan Vocea Risk Reduction Officer Marc Wilson Regional Project Manager, IWRM Kirstie Meheux Senior Adviser, DRM Training and Capacity Building. 22 Aug 2013 Department of Town and Losana Talei Rokotuibau Director of Town and Planning Country Planning, Reijeli Taylor Ministry of Local Samuela Tawakedrau Head, Environment Unit Government, Urban Development, Housing and Osea Tukoli Project Officer Urban village Plan Environment Manasa Tuilau Head, Building Jone Tukana Senior Planning Officer 22 Aug 2013 Fiji Land Information Lorosio Raikivi System, Dept of Lands & Nicholas Narayan Survey (Ministry of Lands & Mineral Resources) 23 Aug 2013 Applied Science and Litea Biukoto Senior Adviser Risk Reduction Technology Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community 26 Aug 2013 Applied Science and Litea Biukoto Senior Adviser Risk Reduction Technology Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community 27 Aug 2013 ADB / Applied Science and Allison Woodruff Urban Development Specialist Technology Division, Litea Biukoto Senior Adviser Risk Reduction Secretariat of the Pacific Community 28 Aug 2013 Nadi Basin Catchment Nadi Basin Catchment Committee Quarterly Committee Meeting 29 Aug 2013 ADB / UNHabitat / PUMA Allison Woodruff Urban Development Specialist (Samoa) Applied Science Sarah Mecartney Pacific Programme Manager and Technology Division, Jude Kohlhase ACEO PUMA Secretariat of the Pacific Community Litea Biukoto Senior Adviser Risk Reduction 16 Sep 2013 Planning and Urban Tagaloa Jude Kohlhase Assistant CEO, PUMA Management Agency, Utulei Lui Strategic Officer, PUMA Ministry of Natural Resources and Kirisimasi Seumanutafa PO Strategic Planning, PUMA Environment, Samoa 20 Sep 2013 National Disaster Filomena Nelson Assistant CEO, NDMO Management Office, Toai Bartley Principal Disaster Risk Reduction Ministry of Natural Officer Resources and Environment, Samoa Titimanu Simi Senior Disaster Risk Reduction Officer

Josephina Chan Ting Disaster Risk Reduction Officer

Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 77

Date Organisation Attendees Position 20 Sep 2013 Planning and Urban Utulei Lui Strategic Officer Management Agency, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Samoa

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Appendix C Initial summary of currently identified country-relevant information

Fiji

Legislation Town and Country Planning Act Subdivision of Land Act Water Authority Act Local Government Act Public Health Act Solid Waste Management Act Subdivision of By-Laws Land Conservation and Improvement Act, National Code of Logging Practice Environment Management Act (EMA) 2005. Environment Management (Waste Disposal and Recycling) Regulations 2007 Natural Disaster Management Act 1998

Government Ministries Ministry of Local Government, Urban Development, Housing & Environment (MLGUDGE) • Department of Local Government • Department of Town & Country Planning (DTCP) • Department of Housing and Squatter Settlements • Department of Environment

Ministry of Works, Transport and Public Utilities • Department of Transport • Fiji Meteorological Services • Public Works Department

Department of Lands and Survey (Ministry of Lands & Mineral Resources) • Fiji Lands Information System (FLIS)

Ministry of Primary Industries • Land Resource Planning and Development Unit • Land and Water Management Division

Office the Prime Minister • National Disaster Management Office • Ministry of Provincial Development

Ministry of Strategic Planning National Development and Statistics

Ministry of Social Welfare, Women and Poverty Alleviation

Government Authorities Fiji Road Authority (FRA) Water Authority of Fiji (WAF) Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA) Telecommunications Authority of Fiji (TAF) Civil Aviation Authority of Fiji

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Nadi Special Administrator Nadi Commissioner Western Division Nadi Town Council - Town Planning (Planning Unit) and Building Section Nadi Basin Catchment Committee

Urban Policy

National National Housing Policy of Fiji (2011) Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) Program Sustainable Land Management (SLM) Roadmap for Sustainable and Economic Development in Fiji. Strategic Development Plan 2007 – 2011 Ministry of Local Government Urban Development Housing & Environment, Annual Corporate Plan 2013

Regional Nadi Town Sub-Regional Plan (circa 1998, status not known) Nadi Drainage Plan (2001) Nadi Integrated Basin Flood Management (IBFM) Plan

Local Nadi Town Plan (2004 – reviewed every 5 years) Nadi Town Plan (2009/10 – boundary expansion) Approved Nadi Town Planning Scheme (2000) Nadi Extension Town Planning Scheme (2004) Nadi Town Council Corporate Plans Nadi Town Council Annual Reports Nadi Town 5-Year Strategic Plan 2010-2014 Nadi Master Plan (being prepared)

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Samoa

Legislation Planning and Urban Management Act 2004 Planning and Urban Management (Development Consent and Fees) Regulations 2008 Disaster Management Act of 2007 Land Surveys and Environment Act 1989

Government Ministries Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment and Meteorology (MNRE) • Planning and Urban Management Authority • National Disaster Management Office Ministry of Works, Infrastructure and Transport (MWI) Ministry of Communications and Information Technology Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Ministry of Finance (Tourism investment) Department of Lands, Surveys and Environment (DLSE)

Government Authorities Samoa Water Authority (SWA) Electrical Power Corporation (EPC) Land Transport Authority Planning and Urban Management Agency (PUMA) in 2002

Apia Town Development Committee (newly created under the Act)

Urban Policy

National Policy Paper on Draft National Urban Policy, 2013 (NB5*) National Infrastructure Strategic Plan 2011 National Policy Statement on Climate Change (2007) National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) 2005 • Zoning and Strategic Management Planning (Land use planning) • Implementing CIM Plans for Highly Vulnerable Districts (Coastal sector) • Establishing Conservation Programs in Highly Vulnerable Marine & Terrestrial Areas in (Village) Communities (Biodiversity) • Sustainable Tourism Adaptation Program (Tourism industry sector). Strategy for the Development of Samoa (2008-12) Strategy for the Development of Samoa (‘the SDS’) 2012-2016 • Water for Life Strategy 2012-2016 Samoa’s Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan Vaitele Sustainable Management Plan (Nov 2011) PUMA Planning Information Sheet – Development Consent Applications FAQ (May 2009) including Development Consent Flow Chart Housing Guideline, Planning Policy, PUMA (2006) Report on the Samoa National Building Code Promotion and Application (April 2009)

Local Draft Apia Spatial Plan (due end of December) “Climate Change and Adaptation Assessment for Apia” (developed under the Cities and Climate Change Initiative)

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Tonga

Legislation Draft National Spatial Planning and Management Act 2011 (NSPM) pending in the legislature Environmental Impact Assessment Act2003 Government Act (1988) including Village Regulations Land Act (1988) Waste Management Act2005

Government Ministries Ministry of Land Survey & Natural Resources • Planning and Urban Management Authority (PUMA) • Environment • Geology & Mines/Water Ministry of Works • Buildings • Roads • NDMO • Met Office Ministry of Finance & Planning (MFNP)

Ministry of Transport & Civil Aviation

Ministry of Ministry of Communication and Information Technology

Government Authorities Tonga Water Board (TWB) Tonga Electricity Power Board Waste Authority Limited (WAL)

Local Nuku’alofa Urban Development Sector Project Steering Committee

Urban Policy Tonga National Infrastructure Investment Plan (TNIIP), Urban Infrastructure Development Plan (UIDP) for Nuku’alofa in the short term (FY2011FY2013), medium-term (FY2014FY2016), and long-term (FY2017FY2031). Integrated Urban Development Sector Project (IUDSP)

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Vanuatu

Legislation Physical Planning Act (to be reviewed next year) Foreshore Development Act (to be reviewed this year) Environmental Protection & Conservation Act No. 28 of 2010 Urban Land Act No. 23 of 1993

Government ministries Ministry of Public Works and Utilities • Roads • Natural resources • Geo • Meteorological Services • Utilities Regulatory Authority

Ministry of Lands

Ministry of Internal Affairs • Local Authorities • National Advisory Board on CC & DRR

National Disaster Management Office

Unelco - Water

Port Vila Municipality No planning department Building Department

Urban Policy National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) for Vanuatu (2007) Vanuatu Land Use Planning Project (Projek Long Kraon) Planning long, acting short 2009-2012 / Department of Strategic Policy, Planning and Aid Coordination, Ministry of Prime Minister Draft development controls and zoning strategies for Port Vila, Luganville, Lenakel Vanuatu Land Program long-term, 2009 Luganville Zoning Plan Draft National Land Sector Framework Vanuatu Infrastructure Masterplan – Development Framework (2001)

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Solomon Islands

Legislation National and Local Physical Boards Town and Country Planning Act [Cap 154] Local Government Act Land and Titles Act [Cap 138] Public Health Act Honiara City Act, 1999 Land Surveys [Cap 134] Environment Act 1998 Forest Resources and Timber Utilisation Act [Cap 40] Protected Areas Act 2010 The Forest Resources and Timber Utilization (Amendment) Act 2000 Wildlife Protection And Management Act 1998

Government ministries Ministry of Lands, Housing and Survey

Ministry of Home Affairs • Local Government

Honiara City Council

Urban Policy Honiara City Institutional Strengthening Project Honiara City Council building by-law

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Papua New Guinea

Legislation National and Local Physical Boards Physical Planning Act, 1989 Land Act, 1996 Building Act Informal Sector Act National Capital District Commission Act Organic Law on Provincial and Local Level Government Disaster Management Act (Chapter 403)

Government ministries Ministry of Lands and Physical Planning • Office of Urbanization • Office of Land Administration • National Provincial Lands Office

Ministry of Inter-governmental Relations

Ministry of Community Development

Department of Works, Transport and Civil Aviation

National Housing Corporation/Authority PNG Power Papua New Guinea Water Board Provincial Physical Planning Board Land Transport Management Board

National Housing Corporation

Port Moresby National Capital District (NCD) governed by the National Capital District Commission (NCDC) Motu Koita Assembly

Papua New Guinea Physical Planners Association

Urban Policy Draft NCD Urban Development Plan (2006-2015) National Urbanization Policy Participatory Slum Upgrading Programme (PSUP) National Economic Development Plan Medium Term Development Plan 2010-2030 National Capital District Settlements Strategic Plan 2007-2011

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