Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: 46162 October 2013 Regional: Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific (Financed by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction) Prepared by Doug Ramsay, Caroline van Halderen, and Rob Bell National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Limited Auckland, New Zealand This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. Contents Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 6 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Project overview ................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Scope of the inception report .............................................................................. 10 1.3 Inception activities .............................................................................................. 10 1.4 Inception visits and consultations ....................................................................... 11 1.5 Case study selection .......................................................................................... 12 2 Urban development context in the Pacific Islands region ...................................... 14 2.1 Key literature and current initiatives .................................................................... 14 2.2 Natural disaster and climate change exposure of urban areas ........................... 15 2.3 Urban populations and areas ............................................................................. 16 2.4 Urban planning challenges ................................................................................. 18 2.5 Urban planning governance arrangements ......................................................... 19 2.6 Overview of urban planning challenges and frameworks in the demonstration areas .......................................................................................... 23 3 Available information to support risk-based urban management decision- making in Pacific Islands .......................................................................................... 26 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 26 3.2 Data Contained in PacRIS ................................................................................. 28 3.3 Other relevant hazard and climate change-related information ........................... 35 3.4 Risk Screening and Decision-making tools ......................................................... 39 4 Framework and methodology for informing risk-based urban development planning ..................................................................................................................... 46 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 46 4.2 Demonstration study component ........................................................................ 47 4.3 Capacity building and awareness component .................................................... 52 5 Technical Assistance implementation, proposed workplan and timelines ........... 55 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 55 5.2 Counterpart staff ................................................................................................ 55 5.3 Logistical arrangements ..................................................................................... 56 5.4 Personnel schedule ............................................................................................ 56 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 5.5 Work plan and milestones .................................................................................. 56 6 Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 59 7 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... 61 8 References ................................................................................................................. 62 8.1 Citations in Report .............................................................................................. 62 8.2 Bibliography (general and individual countries) .................................................. 64 Appendix A Project terms of reference ................................................................. 71 Appendix B In-country consultations held ............................................................ 77 Appendix C Initial summary of currently identified country-relevant information .......................................................................................... 79 Tables Table 1: Summary of selection criteria for the two demonstration urban areas. 12 Table 2: Recent and current regional urban planning related initiatives. 14 Table 3: Summary of potential natural hazard exposure of the main urban areas in selected Pacific Islands. 16 Table 4: Summary of selected Pacific Country total and urban populations and current growth estimates. 17 Table 5: Summary of key urban planning challenges facing Pacific Island countries. 18 Table 6: Overview of legislative, governance and policy availability in each of the six Pacific Island countries. 21 Table 7: Initial assessment of availability of planning legislation, policies and plans for the six countries. 21 Table 8: Summary of GIS hazard layers available in PacRIS. 29 Table 9: Summary of spatial aggregation units used in PCRAFI to present loss information in each of the six countries involved in this current project. 34 Table 10: Summary of the availability and applicability of PCRAFI datasets for local urban and infrastructure decision-making. 35 Table 11: Summary of identified spatial hazard (weather and coastal-related) information for the six Pacific Island countries involved in this project. 36 Table 12: Summary of the availability of relevant datasets for key urban areas in the six Pacific Island countries. 38 Table 13: Climate and disaster risk management framework and tool types by function. 40 Table 14: Some generic examples of tools or methodologies that support various steps in a risk-based planning framework. 40 Table 15: Summary of main characteristics of a hierarchy of increasingly more comprehensive or effective risk-assessment and analysis frameworks to inform decision making on hazard and climate-change risk-reduction for urban planning. 42 Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific Table 16: Outline of implementation activities and proposed work streams for the demonstration component. 50 Table 17: Summary of existing disaster-related training courses coordinated by the Disaster Programme at SPC-SOPAC. 52 Table 18: Summary of key milestones. 56 Figures Figure 1: Land use zones defined in the sustainable management plan for Vaitele, Apia, Samoa (PUMA, 2012). 25 Figure 2: Flood and landslide hazard map for Guadalcanal in Solomon Islands. 27 Figure 3: Example of wind hazard information available for Fiji. 30 Figure 4: Comparison between the SRTM topography used in PCRAFI activities (left) with the recently-collected May 2012 LiDAR dataset (right) for Nadi Basin. 30 Figure 5: Examples of spatial representation of risk information in the country profile for Fiji. 32 Figure 6: Boundaries of enumeration areas (yellow) and Tikina area (red) for the Nadi region. 34 Figure 7: Availability of LiDAR survey data in Samoa. 39 Figure 8: Risk assessment and management approach (CHARM). 41 Figure 9: Planning for Climate Change – planning framework. 43 Figure 10: The 5 trays (or steps) in the Urban Impacts Toolbox. 44 Figure 11: Schematic of core framework for the RiskScape system. 45 Figure 12: Overview of the project work flow. 46 Figure 13: Proposed framework and methodology for urban development planning. 48 Figure 14: Revised project implementation work plan. 58 Reviewed by Approved for release by T. Hume D. Roper Formatting checked by Strengthening Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific 5 Executive summary The Strengthening Disaster and Climate Resilience in Urban Development in the Pacific project aims to promote the use of available data, tools and information, including data developed under the Pacific Catastrophic Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI), to effectively address natural disaster and climate change risks in urban planning and development in Pacific DMCs. The project covers six Pacific countries (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu). An urban area from two of these countries (Apia–Samoa and Nadi– Fiji) have been selected as case studies to develop and demonstrate suitable urban development planning approaches with training and awareness of these urban development planning approaches conducted in the other four countries. The project technical assistance is being provided by a team from the National Institute