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UNO Template 16 April 2013 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Real Estate Management & Development / REITs (Real Estate (Japan)/REIT (Japan)) / OVERWEIGHT/OVERWEIGHT Real estate sector Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW Masahiro Mochizuki 81 3 4550 7389 [email protected] Abenomics to affect real estate appraisers Atsuro Takemura Figure 1: Cap rates of J-REIT property transactions (offices in Tokyo’s 23 central wards) 81 3 4550 7372 [email protected] 10.0% Liquidity lowered 9.0% 8.0% Liquidity recovering 7.0% Ample liquidity 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 7/08 1/07 4/07 7/07 1/08 4/08 1/09 4/09 7/09 1/10 4/10 7/10 1/11 4/11 7/11 1/12 4/12 7/12 1/13 4/13 10/08 10/09 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/07 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse ■ Summary: Cap rates for real estate stocks have declined, but the decline in actual cap rates on office buildings has been only moderate. However, we expect real estate cap rates to fall more sharply due to a decline in long-term interest rates and expectations of higher office rents. We believe a sense that real estate prices are rising is likely to emerge in the near future, so we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT stance on the real estate sector, a likely bellwether of Japan’s efforts to combat deflation. ■ Focal points: Cap rates for office buildings acquired by J-REITs in Tokyo’s 23 wards are trending at around 4–6%. In the period up to 2008, when office rents rose, yields were around 4–5%. We would expect an overall decline in yields on acquired properties of around 100bp once office rents begin to rise. ■ Real estate appraisers do not tend to adjust cap rates sharply when appraising properties, in order to maintain continuity. Long-term interest rates have seen a sustained decline, so we expect real estate risk premiums to rise if appraisal cap rates remain flat. If Abenomics drives a recovery in the economy, an increase in the real estate risk premium is unlikely to go over easily. We believe appraisers will start lowering their cap rates in the next six months and see this supporting an increase in real estate prices. ■ Stock calls: Among developers, we recommend Tokyu Land (8815, TP ¥1,700) and Tokyo Tatemono (8804, TP ¥1,400), which have high financial leverage. We also recommend Mitsui Fudosan (8801, TP ¥4,400), on prospects of a positive surprise in 4Q results. Our J-REIT recommendations are Nippon Building Fund (8951, TP ¥1,400,000), Japan Real Estate Investment (8952, ¥1,360,000), and Japan Prime Realty Investment (8955, ¥430,000). We have OUTPERFORM ratings on all these companies. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683 US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 16 April 2013 Companies Mentioned (Price as of 15-Apr-2013) Japan Prime Realty Investment Corporation (8955.T, ¥351,000, OUTPERFORM, TP ¥430,000) Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation (8952.T, ¥1,270,000, OUTPERFORM, TP ¥1,360,000) Mitsui Fudosan (8801.T, ¥3,470, OUTPERFORM, TP ¥4,400) Nippon Building Fund (8951.T, ¥1,390,000, OUTPERFORM, TP ¥1,400,000) Tokyo Tatemono (8804.T, ¥923, OUTPERFORM[V], TP ¥1,400) Tokyu Land (8815.T, ¥1,198, OUTPERFORM[V], TP ¥1,700) Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures Masahiro Mochizuki and Atsuro Takemura, each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Price and Rating History for Japan Prime Realty Investment Corporation (8955.T) 8955.T Closing Price Target Price Date (¥) (¥) Rating 25-Aug-10 189,500 240,000 O 26-Mar-11 218,600 280,000 09-Oct-12 235,100 267,000 25-Mar-13 360,500 430,000 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. O UT PERFO RM Price and Rating History for Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation (8952.T) 8952.T Closing Price Target Price Date (¥) (¥) Rating 21-Jun-10 751,000 770,000 N 17-Dec-10 810,000 880,000 21-Jun-11 779,000 890,000 O 20-Dec-11 612,000 790,000 27-Mar-12 748,000 790,000 N 09-Oct-12 765,000 1,000,000 O 25-Mar-13 1,332,000 1,360,000 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. N EUT RAL O UT PERFO RM Real estate sector 2 16 April 2013 Price and Rating History for Mitsui Fudosan (8801.T) 8801.T Closing Price Target Price Date (¥) (¥) Rating 09-Dec-10 1,504 2,100 O 29-Mar-11 1,364 1,300 N 06-Jun-11 1,301 1,600 O 25-Jul-11 1,484 2,100 15-Mar-12 1,660 2,200 11-Jun-12 1,377 1,700 24-Sep-12 1,615 2,000 28-Nov-12 1,712 2,100 10-Jan-13 2,067 2,400 07-Mar-13 2,459 2,700 O UT PERFO RM 11-Apr-13 3,460 4,400 N EUT RAL * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. Price and Rating History for Nippon Building Fund (8951.T) 8951.T Closing Price Target Price Date (¥) (¥) Rating 31-Aug-10 712,000 750,000 N 26-Apr-11 808,000 890,000 26-Mar-12 758,000 770,000 09-Oct-12 823,000 1,000,000 O 25-Mar-13 1,312,000 1,400,000 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. N EUT RAL O UT PERFO RM Price and Rating History for Tokyo Tatemono (8804.T) 8804.T Closing Price Target Price Date (¥) (¥) Rating 14-May-10 390 460 O 31-Aug-10 294 400 17-Nov-10 320 410 03-Feb-11 390 460 30-Mar-11 308 400 16-Aug-11 251 330 07-Dec-11 232 320 05-Jan-12 242 330 14-Feb-12 301 330 N 22-Mar-12 335 370 O UT PERFO RM 11-Jun-12 269 340 O N EUT RAL 03-Sep-12 261 330 29-Oct-12 324 330 N 10-Jan-13 433 460 04-Apr-13 707 740 O 11-Apr-13 919 1,400 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. Real estate sector 3 16 April 2013 Price and Rating History for Tokyu Land (8815.T) 8815.T Closing Price Target Price Date (¥) (¥) Rating 11-Jun-10 330 410 O 14-Dec-10 394 520 30-Mar-11 368 410 07-Jun-11 352 350 N 30-Aug-11 316 350 O 17-Nov-11 296 420 12-Mar-12 404 480 04-Jun-12 324 550 28-Nov-12 478 590 10-Jan-13 640 830 O UT PERFO RM 07-Mar-13 768 900 N EUT RAL 11-Apr-13 1,142 1,700 * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows: Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractiv e, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin Ame rican and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Australia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12 -month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively.
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