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Jsales and Investment Spotlight 02-2013.Indd Savills World Research Japan Spotlight Real estate investment market: Review of 2012 and outlook for 2013 February 2013 savills.com.jp/research Spotlight | Real estate investment market: Review of 2012 and outlook for 2013 February 2013 Savills World Research Japan Spotlight Real estate investment market: Review of 2012 Spotlight and outlook for 2013 February 2013 Real estate investment market: Review of 2012 and outlook for 2013 savills.com.jp/research “Investment volume remained stifl ed by a lack of sell-side momentum in 2012, belying SUMMARY the strength of investor appetite through the Based on reported pricing, property investment year. Liquidity in the capital and debt markets in Japan totalled an estimated JPY2.1 trillion (US$26.1 billion) in 2012, down approximately 10% improved along with sentiment, while Japan’s year-on-year (YoY) due to a lack of purchasing low position in the rent cycle relative to certain opportunities in the offi ce sector. regional hubs has spurred increased cross- Driven by initial public offerings (IPOs), property purchases conducted by J-REITs totalled border interest.” approximately JPY736 billion (US$9.2 billion), up by around 8% YoY. Four new J-REITs were successfully listed in Introduction retail at around 20% and residential 2012 – the fi rst in as many years – demonstrating The regionally-unrivalled depth of at just over 16%. The share attributed renewed willingness in the capital markets to fi nance Japan’s real estate market was to logistics properties was close to property acquisitions. highlighted in 2012 as deal fl ow 13% – stable from the previous year Improved access to debt fi nance was reported shifted away from an offi ce sector but twice that of 2010 on the back through the year, with eased lending criteria constrained by a lack of purchasing of heightened investor interest in this 2 contributing to heightened investor appetite across opportunities to alternative asset sector. the core asset classes. classes, most notably retail and logistics. Increased liquidity in the The indicative total investment volume Overseas investors were notably more active, capital markets was demonstrated for 2012 across all sectors was with a number of well-known global names by the structuring of four new listed approximately 10% lower than that completing sizable property acquisitions in locations nationwide. J-REITs – the fi rst in as many years of 2011, led by a decline in the offi ce sector equivalent to around 25% YoY. – as well as new private placement Investment volume across all property sectors The total value of property purchases REITs affi liated with blue-chip is expected to increase in 2013, driven by continued names such as Goldman Sachs and conducted by J-REITs, however, rose growth in the REIT market and strengthened investor Mitsubishi Corporation. In addition by about 8% YoY. With acquisitions sentiment. to expansion in the REIT market, totalling approximately JPY736 billion overseas funds seeking stable, long- (US$9.2 billion), the J-REIT market term returns refocused their attention accounted for around 36% of total on Tokyo and the country’s key real estate investment in Japan in In terms of individual assets, just over regional cities. The resulting broad- 2012, based on reported transaction half of acquisitions conducted by 3 based competition for quality assets pricing. This share is up from 30% in J-REITs comprised property transfers maintained downward pressure on 2011, and approximately 12% in both from a related party, predominantly cap rates across the core market 2010 and 2009. investment vehicles of sponsor sectors. companies. Nonetheless, J-REITs Mirroring the market as a whole, were active purchasers on the open Investment volume the volume of offi ce acquisitions by market, concluding approximately Preliminary fi gures compiled by Real J-REITs fell approximately 26% YoY in 45% of their deals through third-party Capital Analytics (RCA) suggest that terms of purchase price, with the retail vendors. approximately JPY2.1 trillion (US$26.1 and logistics sectors rising to fi ll the billion) of property was transacted gap. The share of J-REIT acquisitions Drivers of investment in reported deals in Japan during occupied by the retail sector rose Investment activity in 2012 was 2012.1 An estimated 77% of these to approximately 27% from 13% in supported by heightened liquidity in comprised asset purchases in Greater 2011, while logistics accounted for a the capital and debt markets. Tokyo. Proportionally, the offi ce sector 19% share, up from less than 2% the accounted for about 43% of Japan’s previous year. New REIT offerings – listed total acquisition value, followed by 2 Logistics includes distribution and Backstopped by the Bank of Japan’s other industrial-type units. 1 RCA based on independent reports 3 Savills Research & Consultancy based (BOJ) Asset Purchase Programme, of properties and portfolios of US$10 million and on J-REIT press releases and scheduled acquisition which invested some JPY40.6 billion greater. dates. savills.com.jp/research 02 Spotlight | Real estate investment market: Review of 2012 and outlook for 2013 February 2013 (US$509 million) in domestic REITs GRAPH 1 during 2012, expansion of the J-REIT Japan real estate investment volume – estimated annual total vs market provided major developers and blue-chip corporations with a J-REIT acquisitions by sector, 2009–2012 natural exit point for stable properties Office Logistics/industrial Retail Apartment Hotel Other held on their balance sheets. 3,500 Investment volumes, particularly in the commercial and logistics sectors, 3,000 were bolstered by willingness in the capital markets to fi nance new REIT 2,500 offerings. Four J-REITs were listed through the year on the Tokyo Stock 2,000 Exchange, with Kenedix Residential Investment Corporation’s successful 1,500 IPO in April marking the fi rst new JPY billion J-REIT in approximately 4.5 years. The Kenedix-sponsored investment 1,000 trust started trading with an initial portfolio of 20 residential assets 500 located across Japan, acquired for a total of JPY30.4 billion (US$360 0 million). Total J-REIT Total J-REIT Total J-REIT Total J-REIT The listing of Tokyu Land’s Activia 2009 2010 2011 2012* Properties REIT followed in June, Source: Compiled by Savills Research & Consultancy based on RCA and publicly disclosed J-REIT data with 18 seed assets acquired from its *Preliminary data sponsor for approximately JPY170 billion (US$2.1 billion). Its opening assets under management comprised a mix of high-street and suburban Goldman Sachs Asset Management Tankan survey (Graph 2). This is retail facilities, offi ces and a lease- acquired three core properties considered to be a contributing land asset, located predominantly in in Tokyo to incorporate into its factor behind the noticeable the Greater Tokyo region. Refl ecting newly-structured private REIT increase in purchases of traditionally a price tag of JPY45 billion (US$564 for approximately JPY25 billion alternative asset types through the million) and an NOI yield of 3.9%, (US$312.5 million). The REIT is year by blue-chip domestic and the trophy asset of the portfolio is the fi rst private trust set up by an overseas players. Tokyu Plaza Omotesando Harajuku, a overseas fi nancial institution in Japan prime high-street retail property that and there are plans to eventually Overseas investors becoming opened in central Tokyo in April. increase its asset size to about more active JPY300 billion (US$3.75 billion). Domestic investors have driven In the third J-REIT listing of the Japan’s real estate market after year, Daiwa House REIT used the Separately, DREAM Private REIT credit tightening in the wake of proceeds of its November IPO was structured by Diamond the global fi nancial crisis led to an to part-fund the acquisition of 19 Realty Management, a Mitsubishi exodus of their generally higher- logistics facilities and a shopping Corporation subsidiary, with an initial leveraged overseas counterparts. It centre from its sponsor, Daiwa House JPY31.7 billion (US$402.0 million) is nonetheless important to note that Industry and related companies for investment in three Tokyo assets. A transaction data indicates increased JPY95.05 billion (US$1.2 billion). The fi rst of its kind affi liated to a trading activity by overseas investors in listing had previously been scheduled company, the private placement recent years, with a number of well- for June 2008 but was abandoned REIT focuses largely on top-grade known global names completing due to weakening market conditions. properties in the retail and logistics Japan’s second biggest IPO to date sizable property acquisitions in followed in December with the listing sectors and targets an asset volume locations nationwide in 2012. of GLP Reit. Singapore-based Global of JPY250 billion (US$3.1 billion) in Logistics Properties will initially fi ve years. Signifi cant deals involving overseas contribute 30 logistics properties players included Angelo Gordon and to the REIT in January 2013 with a Improved access to debt fi nance minority partner Orix Real Estate transfer price of JPY208.7 billion Coinciding with increased liquidity Capital’s purchase of ownership (US$2.6 billion). in the capital markets for real estate in the Kioicho Building, an offi ce investment, a gradual easing of property in central Tokyo, for an New REIT offerings – private lending criteria in the debt market estimated JPY24.2 billion (US$293.7 Illustrative of growth in the was noted by property investors – as million). Secured Capital Investment burgeoning non-listed REIT sector, illustrated by the BOJ’s benchmark Management and Aviva Investors’ savills.com.jp/research 03 Spotlight | Real estate investment market: Review of 2012 and outlook for 2013 February 2013 jointly-managed Tokyo Recovery GRAPH 2 Fund also targeted the offi ce sector, Lending attitudes of Japanese fi nancial institutions towards real acquiring its fi rst two assets for an estate, Sep 2005–Dec 2012 unconfi rmed price tag of around JPY15 billion (US$186 million).
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