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Street Retail — Moscow —————— 1 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT — YEAR-END REVIEW 2018 — FORECAST 2019 RETAIL MARKET — STREET RETAIL — MOSCOW —————— 1 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE STREET RETAIL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT YEAR-END REVIEW 2018 | FORECAST 2019 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT — YEAR-END REVIEW 2018 — FORECAST 2019 2 —————— RETAIL MARKET — STREET RETAIL — MOSCOW MOSCOW | YEAR-END REVIEW 2018 | FORECAST 2019 STREET RETAIL Key Market Indicators 2016 2017 2018 Total stock of street retail space on central corridors, thousand sq m 541.2 560.1 562.5 Amount of retail space, number of units 3,054 3,125 3,110 Average size of leased units over the period, sq m 170 154 163 Vacancy rate, % 9.2 7.1 5.7 * Based on the analysis of Moscow’s 90 streets Major developments and trends In Q4 2018, the vacancy rate of Moscow’s central corridors, calculated by Colliers International based on an analysis of 90 streets, increased to 5.7% after the end of the World Cup. This is higher than in the second and third quarters (4.8%), but significantly lower than the level at the end of 2017 (7.1%) and the first quarter of 2018 (7.0%). Vacancy growth is observed across all groups of retail corridors with the exception of Patriarch Ponds, where it fell to 6.8% compared to 7.4% at the end of 2017. The average vacancy rate on Pedestrian streets increased from 2.9% in Q3 2018 to 4.2% in Q4 2018, on the Boulevard Ring from 5.7% to 7% and on the Garden Ring from 6.8% to 7.5%. The increase in the vacancy rate at the end of the year was predictable, given that its sharp decline in the middle of the year was caused by a powerful stimulating factor — the 2018 World Cup, which undoubtedly revived the rental market for street-retail premises and allowed some tenants on central streets to boost their sales. 14 12.2 12 11.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10 9.0 Average vacancy rate 7.8 7.5 8 7.0 7.1 on Moscow’s central 7.0 5.7 streets, % 6 4.8 4.8 Source: Colliers International 4 2 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2015 Q3 2018 Q3 2016 Q4 2015 Q4 2018 Q4 2016 Q2 2018 Q2 2016 *Pedestrian streets, central corridors, Garden Ring, Boulevard Ring, Patriarch Ponds COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT — YEAR-END REVIEW 2018 — FORECAST 2019 RETAIL MARKET — STREET RETAIL — MOSCOW —————— 3 As for the tenant structure, the largest category, as before, remained F&B operators, which account for 38% of all rented space within the Garden Ring and which have become the main growth driver in the street retail market over the past few years. They also annually account for about 35–40% of rented vacant space on central corridors (for example, on the Patriarch’s Ponds, the share of F&B has increased over the last three years from 29% in 2016 to 40% in 2018. Next come the categories of fashion (10%), banks (10%), beauty and health (9%), as well as grocery stores (6%). Food&Beverage 11 Fashion 1 Banks 22 3 Beauty&Health 38 Structure of leased premises 4 Grocery 4 Services by tenant category, % Home goods Source: Colliers International 6 Accessories Books&Oce 9 Electronics&Mobile 10 10 Flowers&Gifts Other Over the past 12 months, 14% of premises on the central streets of Moscow have changed their tenants. Of these, the tenant’s profile changed in 58% of the premises, that is, the previous tenants were replaced by representatives of other segments and profiles. However, this does not apply to F&B operators, which in 75% of cases opened up in premises previously rented by other cafes or restaurants. In general, if we consider the structure of the premises that changed tenants over the past year, F&B operators were closed in 36% of the premises, grocery stores in 7%, services in 5%, and flower shops, pharmacies, banks and fashion stores in 4% each. As for the stores that replaced them, the structure is as follows: F&B 43%, grocery stores 7%, clothing/footwear and pharmacies 4%, banks 4%. More than half of F&B openings in 2018 represent the format of restaurants (42%) and cafes (23%). The list of popular formats includes bars, which accounted for 18% of the total number of new openings. For example, in Q4 2018, these openings included Château Rustaveli restaurant on Patriarch Ponds, Syto Piano on Tverskaya, Bob’s Your Uncle on Maroseyka, Klava Bar on Petrovka, and Coffee House 21 on Pokrovka. Among all F&B openings in 2018, the most popular formats have an average bill ranging from 1,000 to 2,500 rubles and less than 500 rubles, These accounted for more than 60% of all openings in Moscow’s Central Administrative District. 2 2 1 5 2 Restaurant 5 Cafe Bar Coee House Structure of F&B openings in 42 Pub 18 2018 by type and average bill, % Bakery Source: Colliers International Pizza place Burgers Bistro 23 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT — YEAR-END REVIEW 2018 — FORECAST 2019 4 —————— RETAIL MARKET — STREET RETAIL — MOSCOW 12 1,000–2,500 RUB Structure of F&B openings in 21 41 up to 500 RUB 2018 by type and average bill, % 500–1,000 RUB over 2,500 RUB Source: Colliers International 26 In 2018, most of the tenants leasing space on Moscow’s main retail corridors represent medium and medium plus price segments — together they account for nearly 78% of the total leased area. Less common are tenants representing the economy, premium and luxury price segments. Among the locations where the share of luxury retailers is the highest (around 40%) are Stoleshnikov Lane, Tretyakovsky passage and Petrovka street. 5 7 10 Medium Structure of leased premises 47 Medium+ by retailer price categories, % Premium Economy Source: Colliers International Luxury 31 One of the major trends of 2018 was the active development of restaurant clusters in the format of food markets and food courts, which are popular with residents and guests in the capital. In addition to existing spaces, such as Central Market on Rozhdestvensky Boulevard, Usachevsky Market, Around the World, Vetoshny Gastronomic Number, the Stankolith food court and Bratislava Market, in December a new project was opened — Central Market on Maroseyka street, which occupied three floors and offers about 27 gastronomic concepts. In 2019, the project Depot is expected to open at the Miussky trolleybus depot, and Usachevsky market on Leninsky Prospekt is also due to open. The key openings on Moscow’s central streets in 2018 include Greek Freak café on Rozhdestvenka St, Humans Seafood Bar and Remy Kitchen Bakery restaurants on Patriarch Ponds, and the Gorynych restaurant project on Rozhdestvensky Boulevard. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT — YEAR-END REVIEW 2018 — FORECAST 2019 RETAIL MARKET — STREET RETAIL — MOSCOW —————— 5 Name Address Profile Greek Freak* 5/7 Rozhdestvenka St F&B Humans Seafood Bar 10 bld 1 Malaya Bronnaya St F&B Remy Kitchen Bakery 2 bld 1 Malaya Bronnaya St F&B Gorinich 1 Rozhdestvensky Blvd F&B Castle Dish 10/25 Sadovaya-Chernogriazskaya St F&B Riyba Moia 21 1st Tversksya-Yamskaya St F&B Lucky Izakaya Bar 23/9 Bolshaya Nikitskay St F&B Avocado Queen 20 bld 1 Malaya Bronnaya St F&B Lepin I Zarim 9 bld 1 Stoleshnikov Ln F&B Richard Mille 14/1 Stoleshnikov Ln Watch Totti 9 Rozhdestvensky Blvd Fashion That’s Living 9 Tverskaya St Home goods Zasport 26 Noviy Arbat St Sports goods Major openings on Moscow’s central streets in 2018 Forward 17 Noviy Arbat St Sports goods Source: Colliers International Bosch 2 Tsvetnoy Blvd Electronics * Deals by Colliers International The significant decrease in the vacancy rate in the last two years has led to a certain shortage of quality premises of 150–250 sq m in one level on the first floors, which, in turn, has affected the growth of rental rates on the main shopping corridors. On average, the growth rates over the past 12 months amounted to 15–20%. For example, average rates on Kuznetsky Most increased by 25% over the past year, Arbat by 10%, Novy Arbat by 16%, Pyatnitskaya street by 17% and Tverskaya street by 28%. At the same time, on Stoleshnikov Lane, on the one hand, there is a decrease in the lower limit of the rates range due to problems with leasing the premises at higher rates. On the other hand, the upper limit of the range has grown due to the emergence of new facilities following the departure of previous tenants. Street Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Rent MIN Rent MAX Rent MIN Rent MAX Stoleshnikov Ln 200,000 280,000 180,000 300,000 Tverskaya St 60,000 120,000 90,000 140,000 Kuznetsky Most St 85,000 180,000 110,000 220,000 Petrovka St 100,000 150,000 100,000 180,000 Myasnitskaya St 70,000 100,000 95,000 145,000 Arbat St 70,000 130,000 70,000 150,000 Novy Arbat St 78,000 110,000 88,000 130,000 Rental rates on selected Rozhdestvenka St 125,000 150,000 125,000 165,000 Moscow retail corridors, RUB/sq m/year Pyatnitskaya St 100,000 160,000 125,000 180,000 Source: Colliers International Bolshaya Nikitskaya St 48,000 115,000 70,000 130,000 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT — YEAR-END REVIEW 2018 — FORECAST 2019 6 —————— RETAIL MARKET — STREET RETAIL — MOSCOW STREET RETAIL DEPARTMENT Ekaterina Podlesnykh countries Director 68 [email protected] ANALYTICAL DEPARTMENT professionals 17,000 Veronika Lezhneva Director [email protected] billion in annual revenue $3.3 Magomed Akhkuev Senior Analyst million sq m [email protected] 185.8 under management Konstantin Budagian Senior Analyst lease [email protected] 69,000 and sales deals MARKETING AND PR DEPARTMENT Olga Bakulina billion Regional Director $127 transaction volume [email protected] Copyright © 2019 Colliers International data for 2018 in $USD and includes affiliated offices The information contained herein has been obtained from sourc- es deemed reliable.
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