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Seabury Newsletter 15.Indd ISSUE 15 April 2013 3D Insight A Publication by AACO and Seabury Aviation & Aerospace 3D Insight - Issue 15 Page 2 The Major Airlines Outside of MENA Part Two of a Four part series Background This is the second article in a 4-part series on the There is a particular focus on the big four full- Arab Air Carriers Organization’s (AACO) major service North American airlines – American competitors. It examines the North American Airlines (AA), United Airlines (UA), US Airways carriers, who, whilst not presenting much direct (US) and Delta Air Lines (DL). competition to AACO airlines, offer useful lessons. Fig 1 - Seat capacity breakdown from MENA excluding AACO carriers Jun’12 seats (K) Source: Innovata, Seabury analysis. 3D Insight - Issue 15 Page 3 In the last decade, the US airline industry experienced several shocks having a dramatic America’s Big 4 impact on air travel demand and supply (September 11, volatile fuel prices, the global Introduction economic recession, debt restructuring in Europe). All these factors forced airlines to adjust their business models and undergo significant capacity reductions. Many airlines decided to push for acquisitions and mergers as the only way to remain competitive in the difficult economic environment. American Airlines merged with Trans World Airlines (TWA) in 2001, US Airways with America West Airlines (HP) in 2005 and Delta Air Lines with Northwest Airlines (NW) in 2008. In 2010, United Airlines integrated with Continental Airlines (CO). As a result of these consolidations, nearly 70% of the current operating revenue reported by US carriers is produced by the six largest carriers: the “Big 4” accounting for ~ 57%, and LCCs Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways, with a further 10% 1 . 2011 was the third straight year that the North American commercial airline industry reported sustained profitability and according to the FAA, that trend is expected to continue on 2012’s income statements. 3D Insight - Issue 15 Page 4 Capacity Deployment Overview The US carriers follow very strict capacity As shown in Figure 2, the market out of North discipline to match seat supply with demand. In America remains essentially flat, with a total 2008, the US carriers made the most substantial growth of only 6% over 8 years. The entire market capacity cuts among all air carriers globally. was deeply impacted by the 2008-2009 economic Except for “Essential Air Services,” where crisis with a total capacity reduction of 8%, which airlines are subsidised by the United States has however been recovered over the last 3 Department of Transportation (DoT) to maintain years. a minimal level of scheduled air service to small communities, airlines may terminate or reduce services without any restriction. Fig 2 - North America total capacity development Seats departed per annum (B) +5% 2,000 +7% 1,800 17% 14% -8% 1,600 2% 2% 1% 1,400 9% 11% 10% 1,200 9% 13% 1,000 19% Ex-NAM - Non-NAM carrier 800 Ex-NAM - NAM carrier Ex-NAM - LCC 600 Ex-NAM - Big 4 51% 400 40% NAM - Other carriers 200 NAM - LCC NAM - Big 4 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Big 4 includes AA, CO+UA, DL+NW, US+HP; NAM carriers include all carriers domiciled in North America; Non-NAM carriers include all carriers domiciled outside of North America; Other carriers include all carriers excl. LCCs and the Big 4, with Intra-North America capacity. Source: Innovata, Seabury analysis. The Big 4 US carriers have lost more than 10 As in the previous article, capacity has been percentage points of intra-NAM capacity share to separated into 14 different flows: Intra-EU-27, the profitable US LCCs (mainly Southwest Airlines Norway, Switzerland and Iceland; Russia and the and JetBlue Airways). While on the ex-North CIS; Turkey; AACO North Africa; AACO Levant; America market, capacity distribution remained AACO Arabian Gulf; Indian Sub-Continent and flat. Non-NAM carriers increased their capacity Iran; Rest of Africa; South Asia; South East. share by 3 net percentage points; Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways contributing 1.1 points Figure 3 shows that from North America, the main each. Noticeable changes in the European and capacity reduction took place in the domestic America LCC markets were caused by entrance market where since 2006, non-NAM carriers of airberlin in 2008 and the more than doubled pulled out 19% and NAM carriers 1% of their capacity deployed by Condor since 2004. capacity. 3D Insight - Issue 15 Page 5 Fig 3 - 2006-2011 seat capacity growth from North America to the world Growth (%) 10% North American carriers 7% Non-N. American carriers 0% 27% 0% 13% 2% -1% 1% -19% 1% 1% 0% 7% 1% 4% 76% 3% European Common Aviation Area -1% 1% Russia & CIS 49% Turkey 8% AACO North Africa 1% AACO Levant 4% 2% AACO Arabian Gulf 6% 108% Indian Sub-Continent and Iran Africa 41% South Asia South East Asia North East Asia North America Central America & Caribbean South America Note: Annual seat capacity. Source: Innovata, Seabury analysis. Intra North America Capacity Fig 4 - Capacity development on North American routes Seats departed per annum (M) 2,000 CAGR (%) -13% 7% -11% 1,500 -1% 7% LCC 53% 1,000 Other charter -1% 56% + FSCs 10% -5% 500 5% 8% US+HP 7% AA +2% 15% 12% UA+CO -4% 11% 10% DL+NW -2% 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Big 4 includes AA, CO+UA, DL+NW, US+HP; Other FSC & Charter include Medium, small and other FSC, regional and charter airlines. Source: Innovata, Seabury analysis. Intra North America capacity has dropped by 13% been the most impacted with a ca. 3% share loss, over the last 8 years. The Big 4 carriers have while LCCs have maintained their presence. 3D Insight - Issue 15 Page 6 While the previous article explained that LCCs the US is perceived as a commodity. Air fares increasingly entered the European market up until oscillate on the low-end which forces scheduled 2008-2009, US LCCs established themselves carriers to operate domestic routes on a low cost earlier. Southwest was created in 1971 and basis directly competing with their no frills rivals. gradually expanded its network with relative freedom. Conversely, Ryanair, created in 1985, Under these oppressive market circumstances, had to wait until 1992 for the first deregulation domestic operations are very sensitive to any of the European market to be able to open economic fluctuation or instability. These are routes without any restrictions. In summary, the tough times for regionals on both sides of the North American domestic market, unlike the Atlantic. In the USA, ExpressJet sold itself to intra-European market, has long-since reached SkyWest Airlines for $50 million less in 2010 maturity. Today, limited growth opportunity than it was offered in 2008. Delta shut down between third-tier cities remains to be explored. Comair. Pinnacle, as part of its own bankruptcy Long-term excess supply has also had a reorganisation, closed Colgan Air. American Eagle significant impact on consumer behavior, which expects to be spun off from American Airlines 2 . has become extremely price elastic. Air travel in Regional carriers face uncertain futures. Ex North America Capacity Fig 5 - Big 4 ex-North America capacity growth 2006 and 2011 US Big 4 seat capacity from North America, CAGR (%) Russia & CIS +0% Turkey Europe +5% North East Asia +2% 0% Levant Central America North +13% & Caribbean Africa* -3% 100% Arabian Indian South Asia Africa Gulf subcontinent -1% +112% +108% +7% South America South East Asia +3% +4% Note: *100% as a proxy, as the Big4 were not flying to North Africa in 2006. Source: Innovata, Seabury analysis. From North America, the fastest growing market is Non-NAM carriers deployed more than 300,000 seats The Arabian Gulf-North America market which has in 2006 and over 1.7 million in 2011. The significant recorded a breathtaking constant growth of 108% growth of Gulf-North America capacity is expected to and 41% p.a. for North American and Gulf carriers continue as the Americas are the least served regions respectively. About 8,000 annual seats were offered by in the “Big three” Gulf carriers’ networks, and they are NAM carriers in 2006, vs. more than 300,000 in 2011. shifting their focus mainly to the US development. 3D Insight - Issue 15 Page 7 The Indian subcontinent occupies the second is reflected in growing aviation partnership position in terms of capacity growth with still a lot between India and North America. A single sky of untapped demand from both ends of the route agreement was signed in August 2005, boosting for both business and VFR 3 travel. As per the capacity offered on US-India routes by 60% per 2011 American Community Survey, the Indian annum on average 5 . However, North American American community in the United States is over airlines are still facing numerous challenges 5 million strong which represent 1.6% of total including access to good quality and cost US population. The Indian American diaspora effective infrastructure and service providers, is characterised by a high level of education which explains the average 76% growth for and is represented in many high-income fields Indian carriers compared to 7% growth for North including academics and entrepreneurs, doctors American carriers. This might change in the and lawyers, engineers (mainly high-tech and IT future if Indian Civil Authorities are able to enforce sectors) and financiers. The states with the highest strong pricing regulation policies to ensure fair Indian population are California (about 300,000 competition for foreign carriers.
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