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Why Concessions Should Not Be Made to Terrorist Kidnappers
European Journal of Political Economy 44 (2016) 41–52 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect European Journal of Political Economy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ejpe Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers Patrick T. Brandt, Justin George, Todd Sandler ⁎ School of Economic, Political & Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USA article info abstract Article history: This paper examines the dynamic implications of making concessions to terrorist kidnappers. Received 21 December 2015 We apply a Bayesian Poisson changepoint model to kidnapping incidents associated with Received in revised form 23 May 2016 three cohorts of countries that differ in their frequency of granting concessions. Depending Accepted 24 May 2016 on the cohort of countries during 2001–2013, terrorist negotiation successes encouraged 64% Available online 26 May 2016 to 87% more kidnappings. Our findings also hold for 1978–2013, during which these negotia- tion successes encouraged 26% to 57% more kidnappings. Deterrent aspects of terrorist casual- Keywords: ties are also quantified; the dominance of religious fundamentalist terrorists meant that such Kidnappings casualties generally did not curb kidnappings. Changepoints © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY- Game theory Concessions NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Violent ends Dynamic analysis “…we know that hostage takers looking for ransoms distinguish between those governments that pay ransoms and those that do not, and make a point of not taking hostages from those countries that do not pay.” David S. Cohen, US Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, 2012 speech to ChathamHouse [Callimachi (2014a)] 1. -
By Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Of
FROM DIWAN TO PALACE: JORDANIAN TRIBAL POLITICS AND ELECTIONS by LAURA C. WEIR Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Dissertation Adviser: Dr. Pete Moore Department of Political Science CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY January, 2013 CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES We hereby approve the thesis/dissertation of Laura Weir candidate for the Doctor of Philosophy degree *. Pete Moore, Ph.D (chair of the committee) Vincent E. McHale, Ph.D. Kelly McMann, Ph.D. Neda Zawahri, Ph.D. (date) October 19, 2012 *We also certify that written approval has been obtained for any proprietary material contained therein. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables v List of Maps and Illustrations viii List of Abbreviations x CHAPTERS 1. RESEARCH PUZZLE AND QUESTIONS Introduction 1 Literature Review 6 Tribal Politics and Elections 11 Case Study 21 Potential Challenges of the Study 30 Conclusion 35 2. THE HISTORY OF THE JORDANIAN ―STATE IN SOCIETY‖ Introduction 38 The First Wave: Early Development, pre-1921 40 The Second Wave: The Arab Revolt and the British, 1921-1946 46 The Third Wave: Ideological and Regional Threats, 1946-1967 56 The Fourth Wave: The 1967 War and Black September, 1967-1970 61 Conclusion 66 3. SCARCE RESOURCES: THE STATE, TRIBAL POLITICS, AND OPPOSITION GROUPS Introduction 68 How Tribal Politics Work 71 State Institutions 81 iii Good Governance Challenges 92 Guests in Our Country: The Palestinian Jordanians 101 4. THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES: FAILURE OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND THE RISE OF TRIBAL POLITICS Introduction 118 Political Threats and Opportunities, 1921-1970 125 The Political Significance of Black September 139 Tribes and Parties, 1989-2007 141 The Muslim Brotherhood 146 Conclusion 152 5. -
Jordan from Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia Jump To: Navigation, Search for Other Uses, See Jordan (Disambiguation)
Jordan From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search For other uses, see Jordan (disambiguation). This article may be too long to read and navigate comfortably. Please consider splitting content into sub-articles and using this article for a summary of the key points of the subject. (June 2010) Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan المملكة الردنية الهاشمية Al-Mamlakah al-ʾ Urdunniyyah al-Hāšimiyyah Flag Coat of arms ال، الوطن، المليك :Motto: Arabic Transliteration: Allah Al-Watan Al-Malek Translation: "God,Homeland,The King" ككك كككككك :Anthem The Royal Anthem of Jordan > ("As-salam al-malaki al-urdoni")1 Long Live the King Amman Capital 31°57′N 35°56′E / 31.95°N 35.933°E / 31.95; 35.933 Official language(s) Arabic [1] Arabic, English, French, Spoken languages Circassian, Levantine Arabic, Chechen, Turkish Demonym Jordanian Government Constitutional monarchy - King of Jordan Abdullah II - Prime Minister Marouf al-Bakhit Independence End of British League - of Nations mandate 25 May 1946 Area 92,300 km 2 (111th) - Total 35,637 sq mi - Water (%) 0.8 Population - July 2010 estimate 6,407,085[2] (102nd) - July 2004 census 5,611,202 68.4/km2 (131st) - Density 138.8/sq mi GDP (PPP) 2010 estimate - Total $35.3 billion[3] - Per capita $5,956 [4] GDP (nominal) 2010 estimate - Total $27.129 billion - Per capita $4,435[5] Gini (2002–03) 38.8 (medium) HDI (2010) 0.681[6] (high) (82nd) Currency Jordanian dinar (JOD) Time zone UTC+2 (UTC+2) - Summer (DST) UTC+3 (UTC+3) Drives on the Right ISO 3166 code JO Internet TLD .jo Calling code 962 1 Also serves as the Royal anthem. -
Reporting ISIS
Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy Discussion Paper Series #D-101, July 2016 The Pen and the Sword: Reporting ISIS By Paul Wood Joan Shorenstein Fellow, Fall 2015 BBC Middle East Correspondent Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. May 2013: The kidnapping started slowly. 1 At first, it did not feel like a kidnapping at all. Daniel Rye delivered himself to the hostage-takers quite willingly. He was 24 years old, a freelance photographer from Denmark, and he had gone to the small town of Azaz in northern Syria. His translator, a local woman, said they should get permission to work. So on the morning of his second day in Azaz, only his second ever in Syria, they went to see one of the town’s rebel groups. He knocked at the metal gate to a compound. It was opened by a boy of 11 or 12 with a Kalashnikov slung over his shoulder. “We’ve come to see the emir,” said his translator, using the word – “prince” – that Islamist groups have for their commanders. The boy nodded at them to wait. Daniel was tall, with crew-cut blonde hair. His translator, a woman in her 20s with a hijab, looked small next to him. The emir came with some of his men. He spoke to Daniel and the translator, watched by the boy with the Kalashnikov. The emir looked through the pictures on Daniel’s camera, squinting. There were images of children playing on the burnt-out carcass of a tank. It was half buried under rubble from a collapsed mosque, huge square blocks of stone like a giant child’s toy. -
The Istiqlalis in Transjordan, 1920-1926 by Ghazi
A Divided Camp: The Istiqlalis in Transjordan, 1920-1926 by Ghazi Jarrar Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts at Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia April 2016 © Copyright by Ghazi Jarrar, 2016 Table of Contents Abstract........................................................................................................................................................iv Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................v Chapter One: Introduction.................................................................................................................1 Background.....................................................................................................................................3 Historiography...........................................................................................................................11 Project Parameters and Outline..........................................................................................26 A Note on Sources.....................................................................................................................29 Chapter Two: The Militant Istiqlalis...........................................................................................31 Background..................................................................................................................................32 The Militant Istiqlalis: Part -
Volume X, Issue 1 February 2016 PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 10, Issue 1
ISSN 2334-3745 Volume X, Issue 1 February 2016 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 10, Issue 1 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editor 1 I. Articles Who are the Bangladeshi ‘Islamist Militants’? 2 by Ali Riaz Why is Contemporary Religious Terrorism Predominantly Linked to Islam? Four Possible Psychosocial Factors 19 by Joshua D. Wright How Dangerous Are Domestic Terror Plotters with Foreign Fighter Experience? The Case of Homegrown Jihadis in the US 32 by Christopher J. Wright The Nature of Nigeria’s Boko Haram War, 2010-2015: A Strategic Analysis 41 by James Adewunmi Falode II. Interview In Conversation with Morten Storm: A Double Agent’s Journey into the Global Jihad 53 Interviewed by Stefano Bonino III. Research Note If Publicity is the Oxygen of Terrorism – Why Do Terrorists Kill Journalists? 65 by François Lopez IV. Resources Counting Lives Lost – Monitoring Camera-Recorded Extrajudicial Executions by the “Islamic State” 78 by Judith Tinnes Bibliography: Northern Ireland Conflict (The Troubles) 83 Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes V. Book Reviews Michael Morell. The Great War of our Time. The CIA’s Fight Against Terrorism, from Al Qa’ida to ISIS. New York: Twelve, 2015; 362 pp.; US $ 28.00. ISBN 978-1-4555-8566-3. 111 Reviewed by Brian Glyn Williams ISSN 2334-3745 i February 2016 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 10, Issue 1 Counterterrorism Bookshelf: Twenty New Publications on Israeli & Palestinian Issues 114 Reviewed by Joshua Sinai VI. Notes from the Editor TRI Award for Best PhD Thesis 2015: Deadline of 31 March 2016 for Submissions Approaching 126 About Perspectives on Terrorism 127 ISSN 2334-3745 ii February 2016 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 10, Issue 1 Welcome from the Editor Dear Reader, We are pleased to announce the release of Volume X, Issue 1 (February 2016) of Perspectives on Terrorism at www.terrorismanalysts.com. -
The Values, Beliefs, and Attitudes of Elites in Jordan Towards Political, Social, and Economic Development
Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses Spring 6-3-2014 The Values, Beliefs, and Attitudes of Elites in Jordan towards Political, Social, and Economic Development Laila Huneidi Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Part of the Asian Studies Commons, and the Public Affairs Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Huneidi, Laila, "The Values, Beliefs, and Attitudes of Elites in Jordan towards Political, Social, and Economic Development" (2014). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 2017. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.2016 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. The Values, Beliefs, and Attitudes of Elites in Jordan towards Political, Social, and Economic Development by Laila Huneidi A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Public Affairs and Policy Dissertation Committee: Masami Nishishiba, Chair Bruce Gilley Birol Yesilada Grant Farr Portland State University 2014 i Abstract This mixed-method study is focused on the values, beliefs, and attitudes of Jordanian elites towards liberalization, democratization and development. The study aims to describe elites’ political culture and centers of influence, as well as Jordan’s viability of achieving higher developmental levels. Survey results are presented. The study argues that the Jordanian regime remains congruent with elites’ political culture and other patterns of authority within the elite strata. -
Return to Raqqa
RETURN TO RAQQA 80' - 2020 MEDIAWAN RIGHTS Produced by Minimal Films [email protected] RETURN TO RAQQA 0 2 SYNOPSIS “Return to Raqqa” chronicles what was perhaps the most famous kidnapping event in history , when 19 journalists were taken captive by the Islamic State, as told by one of its protagonists: Spanish reporter Marc Marginedas, who was also the first captive to be released. MARC MARGINEDAS Marc Marginedas is a journalist who was a correspondent for El Periódico de Catalunya for two decades. His activity as a war correspondent led him to cover the civil war in Algeria, the second Chechen war, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the civil war in Syria, among others. On 1 September 2013, Marginedas entered Syria accompanied by a group of opposition figures from the Free Syrian Army. It was his third visit to the country as a correspondent since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. His main goal during this latest trip was to provide information on the preparations for a possible international military intervention that seemed very close. Three days later, on 4 September 2013, Marginedas was abducted near the city of Hama by ISIS jihadists. His captivity lasted almost six months, during which he shared a cell with some twenty journalists and aid workers from various countries. Two of these were James Foley and Steven Sotloff, colleagues who unfortunately did not share his fate. Marginedas was released in March 2014 and has not returned to Syrian territory since then. But he now feels the need to undertake this physical, cathartic journey to the house near Raqqa where he underwent the harshest experience of his life, an experience that he has practically chosen to forget over the past few years. -
Legacies of the Anglo-Hashemite Relationship in Jordan
Legacies of the Anglo-Hashemite Relationship in Jordan: How this symbiotic alliance established the legitimacy and political longevity of the regime in the process of state-formation, 1914-1946 An Honors Thesis for the Department of Middle Eastern Studies Julie Murray Tufts University, 2018 Acknowledgements The writing of this thesis was not a unilateral effort, and I would be remiss not to acknowledge those who have helped me along the way. First of all, I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Thomas Abowd, for his encouragement of my academic curiosity this past year, and for all his help in first, making this project a reality, and second, shaping it into (what I hope is) a coherent and meaningful project. His class provided me with a new lens through which to examine political history, and gave me with the impetus to start this paper. I must also acknowledge the role my abroad experience played in shaping this thesis. It was a research project conducted with CET that sparked my interest in political stability in Jordan, so thank you to Ines and Dr. Saif, and of course, my classmates, Lensa, Matthew, and Jackie, for first empowering me to explore this topic. I would also like to thank my parents and my brother, Jonathan, for their continuous support. I feel so lucky to have such a caring family that has given me the opportunity to pursue my passions. Finally, a shout-out to the gals that have been my emotional bedrock and inspiration through this process: Annie, Maya, Miranda, Rachel – I love y’all; thanks for listening to me rant about this all year. -
In the Depth of the Abyss
In the Depth of the Abyss 463 media activist killed, 1027 others arrested and kidnapped 1 www.sn4hr.org - [email protected] Report Contents: - Introduction ................................................................................................3 - Report methodology ..................................................................................5 - Executive Summary ...................................................................................6 - Report Details ............................................................................................6 1. Government forces (army, security, local militias, foreign militias).........6 2. Kurdish Democratic Union forces ............................................................10 3. Extremist Groups .......................................................................................11 4. Armed Opposition Factions .......................................................................14 5. Unidentified Groups ...................................................................................15 - Recommendations .......................................................................................16 2 www.sn4hr.org - [email protected] SNHR is an independent, non-governmental, nonprofit, human rights organization that was founded in June 2011. SNHR is a Thursday 23 April 2015 certified source for the United Nation in all of its statistics. A- Introduction As the popular protests began in March 2011 the Syrian authorities realized the crucial role of the media in exposing their -
Youth Policy in Jordan
EuroMed Youth III Programme STUDIES ON YOUTH POLICIES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN PARTNER COUNTRIES JORDAN Prepared by Katarzyna GÓRAK-SOSNOWSKA This programme is funded by the European Union This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of the Euromed Youth Technical Assistance Unit and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the EU. The third phase of the Euromed Youth Programme* (Euro-Med Youth III), funded by the Eu- ropean Commission (DG EuropeAid) and launched in October 2005, is a regional Programme set up within the framework of the third chapter of the Barcelona Process ‘Partnership on Social, Cultural and Human Affairs’. The overall objectives of the Euro-Med Youth Programme are to pro- mote intercultural dialogue among young people within the Euro-Mediterranean region, motivate active citizenship as well as to contribute to the development of youth policy. The overall aim of the studies undertaken in Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey on Youth Policies, was to be a reference tool which would give all stakeholders in the field of youth, as well as youth project organisers, an over- view of the situation of young people and of provisions available for them in the 10 partner coun- tries. The objectives were to identify whether there was a Youth Policy, legislation or any other national strategy addressing the needs of youth and what kind of provision was made through non-formal education and youth work in the relevant partner countries. -
A Theory of ISIS
A Theory of ISIS A Theory of ISIS Political Violence and the Transformation of the Global Order Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou First published 2018 by Pluto Press 345 Archway Road, London N6 5AA www.plutobooks.com Copyright © Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou 2018 The right of Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978 0 7453 9911 9 Hardback ISBN 978 0 7453 9909 6 Paperback ISBN 978 1 7868 0169 2 PDF eBook ISBN 978 1 7868 0171 5 Kindle eBook ISBN 978 1 7868 0170 8 EPUB eBook This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental standards of the country of origin. Typeset by Stanford DTP Services, Northampton, England Simultaneously printed in the United Kingdom and United States of America Contents List of Figures vii List of Tables viii List of Abbreviations ix Acknowledgements x Introduction: The Islamic State and Political Violence in the Early Twenty-First Century 1 Misunderstanding IS 6 Genealogies of New Violence 22 Theorising IS 28 1. Al Qaeda’s Matrix 31 Unleashing Transnational Violence 32 Revenge of the ‘Agitated Muslims’ 49 The McDonaldisation of Terrorism 57 2. Apocalypse Iraq 65 Colonialism Redesigned 66 Monstering in American Iraq 74 ‘I will see you in New York’ 83 3.