Biogeosciences, 12, 2953–2974, 2015 www.biogeosciences.net/12/2953/2015/ doi:10.5194/bg-12-2953-2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. A model of the methane cycle, permafrost, and hydrology of the Siberian continental margin D. Archer University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, USA Correspondence to: D. Archer (
[email protected]) Received: 15 April 2014 – Published in Biogeosciences Discuss.: 3 June 2014 Revised: 26 March 2015 – Accepted: 13 April 2015 – Published: 21 May 2015 Abstract. A two-dimensional model of a sediment column, ble migration in the model. If it does, the atmospheric flux with Darcy fluid flow, biological and thermal methane pro- is highest during the glaciating, sea level regression (soil- duction, and permafrost and methane hydrate formation, is freezing) part of the cycle rather than during deglacial trans- subjected to glacial–interglacial cycles in sea level, alter- gression (warming and thawing). nately exposing the continental shelf to the cold atmosphere The atmospheric flux response to a warming climate is during glacial times and immersing it in the ocean in inter- small, relative to the rest of the methane sources to the atmo- glacial times. The glacial cycles are followed by a “long-tail” sphere in the global budget, because of the ongoing flooding 100 kyr warming due to fossil fuel combustion. of the continental shelf. The increased methane flux due to The salinity of the sediment column in the interior of the ocean warming could be completely counteracted by a sea shelf can be decreased by hydrological forcing to depths level rise of tens of meters on millennial timescales due to the well below sea level when the sediment is exposed to loss of ice sheets, decreasing the efficiency of bubble transit the atmosphere.