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A Model of the Methane Cycle, Permafrost, and Hydrology of the Siberian Continental Margin

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A Model of the Methane Cycle, Permafrost, and Hydrology of the Siberian Continental Margin Biogeosciences, 12, 2953–2974, 2015 www.biogeosciences.net/12/2953/2015/ doi:10.5194/bg-12-2953-2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. A model of the methane cycle, permafrost, and hydrology of the Siberian continental margin D. Archer University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, USA Correspondence to: D. Archer ([email protected]) Received: 15 April 2014 – Published in Biogeosciences Discuss.: 3 June 2014 Revised: 26 March 2015 – Accepted: 13 April 2015 – Published: 21 May 2015 Abstract. A two-dimensional model of a sediment column, ble migration in the model. If it does, the atmospheric flux with Darcy fluid flow, biological and thermal methane pro- is highest during the glaciating, sea level regression (soil- duction, and permafrost and methane hydrate formation, is freezing) part of the cycle rather than during deglacial trans- subjected to glacial–interglacial cycles in sea level, alter- gression (warming and thawing). nately exposing the continental shelf to the cold atmosphere The atmospheric flux response to a warming climate is during glacial times and immersing it in the ocean in inter- small, relative to the rest of the methane sources to the atmo- glacial times. The glacial cycles are followed by a “long-tail” sphere in the global budget, because of the ongoing flooding 100 kyr warming due to fossil fuel combustion. of the continental shelf. The increased methane flux due to The salinity of the sediment column in the interior of the ocean warming could be completely counteracted by a sea shelf can be decreased by hydrological forcing to depths level rise of tens of meters on millennial timescales due to the well below sea level when the sediment is exposed to loss of ice sheets, decreasing the efficiency of bubble transit the atmosphere. There is no analogous advective seawater- through the water column. The model results give no indica- injecting mechanism upon resubmergence, only slower diffu- tion of a mechanism by which methane emissions from the sive mechanisms. This hydrological ratchet is consistent with Siberian continental shelf could have a significant impact on the existence of freshwater beneath the sea floor on continen- the near-term evolution of Earth’s climate, but on millennial tal shelves around the world, left over from the last glacial timescales the release of carbon from hydrate and permafrost period. could contribute significantly to the fossil fuel carbon burden The salt content of the sediment column affects the relative in the atmosphere–ocean–terrestrial carbon cycle. proportions of the solid and fluid H2O-containing phases, but in the permafrost zone the salinity in the pore fluid brine is a function of temperature only, controlled by equilibrium with ice. Ice can tolerate a higher salinity in the pore fluid than 1 Introduction methane hydrate can at low pressure and temperature, ex- cluding methane hydrate from thermodynamic stability in the 1.1 The Siberian continental shelf system permafrost zone. The implication is that any methane hydrate existing today will be insulated from anthropogenic climate The Siberian Arctic continental shelf has been the focus of change by hundreds of meters of sediment, resulting in a re- attention from scientists and the public at large for its po- sponse time of thousands of years. tential to release methane, a greenhouse gas, in response to The strongest impact of the glacial–interglacial cycles on climate warming, a potential amplifying positive feedback the atmospheric methane flux is due to bubbles dissolving in to climate change (Shakhova, 2010; Westbrook et al., 2009). the ocean when sea level is high. When sea level is low and The goal of this paper is to simulate the geophysical and car- the sediment surface is exposed to the atmosphere, the atmo- bon cycle dynamics of the Siberian continental margin within spheric flux is sensitive to whether permafrost inhibits bub- the context of a basin- and geologic-timescale mechanistic model of the coastal margin carbon cycle called SpongeBOB Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2954 D. Archer: A model of the methane cycle, permafrost, and hydrology (Beneath Ocean Biosphere; Archer et al., 2012). An initial shelf, or to geologic faults (Nicolsky and Shakhova, 2010; condition for the glacial cycle simulations was generated by Romanovskii et al., 2004; Shakhova et al., 2009). spinning the model up at low resolution over 62 million sim- ulated years. Then the model is driven, at higher resolution, 1.1.2 Salt by cyclic changes in sea level and air temperature resulting from glacial cycles, to simulate the impact of the hydrologi- cal pressure head and permafrost formation on the fluid flow Dissolved salt in the pore waters can impact the tim- and methane cycle on the shelf. Finally, a 100 000-year in- ing of thawing permafrost (Nicolsky and Shakhova, 2010; terglacial interval in the simulation is subjected to anthro- Shakhova et al., 2009). When sea level drops and exposes the pogenic warming of the overlying water and potential 60 m top of the sediment column to the atmosphere and freshwa- changes in sea level. Sensitivity studies are presented for the ter, the salinity of the subsurface pore waters can be flushed biogenic and thermogenic methane production rates, initial out by hydrological groundwater flow, driven by the pressure salinity, geothermal temperature gradient, rates of hydrolog- head from the elevated terrestrial water table above sea level. ical flow, and permafrost impact on gas mobility. The boundary between fresh and salty pore water tends to in- tersect the sediment surface at the water’s edge (Moore et al., 2011). From there, the boundary tends to dip landward, to a 1.1.1 Permafrost depth of approximately 40 m below sea level for every 1 m of elevation of the table water. The ratio of water table elevation One component of the simulation is a wedge of frozen sedi- to freshwater lens depth is driven by the relative densities of ment (permafrost) submerged beneath the ocean on the con- fresh- and salt water, as the fluid seeks an isostatic balance tinental shelf of Siberia, left behind from the Last Glacial in which the freshwater displaces an equal mass of salt water Maximum, when the shelves were exposed to the frigid at- (Verrjuit, 1968). mosphere by lowered sea level (Romanovskii and Hubberten, The SpongeBOB model has been modified to simulate the 2001). The ice is thought to provide a seal to the upward mi- processes responsible for these observations. We do not at- gration of methane gas (Shakhova et al., 2009), especially tempt to simulate a detailed outcropping history over a 62- where ancient fresh groundwater flow produced a layer of million-year spinup time of the sediment column but rather very high saturation ice infill, a formation called the Ice demonstrate the general process by subjecting the nearly Complex in Siberia (Romanovskii et al., 2000), although complete sediment column to a one-time sea level lower- there are high ice saturations found in the Alaskan Arctic as ing, exposing the continental shelf to groundwater forcing well (Zimov et al., 2006). (see Sect. A4). After a few million years, the sediment col- With inundation by the natural sea level rise over more umn subsides, due to compaction and the absence of sed- than the last 10 000 years, the permafrost is transiently iment deposition, resulting in a sediment column that has melting, although the time constant for this is generally been considerably freshened by the atmospheric exposure. long enough for significant frozen volume to remain, es- This freshening persists in the model for millions of years pecially in shallower waters which were flooded more re- because there is no corresponding “salt-water pump” during cently (Khvorostyanov et al., 2008a; Nicolsky and Shakhova, high sea level stands. This behavior is consistent with the dis- 2010; Romanovskii and Hubberten, 2001; Romanovskii et covery of vast nearly fresh aquifers in currently submerged al., 2004; Shakhova et al., 2009; Taylor et al., 1996). Even continental shelf regions around the world (Post et al., 2013), overlying water at the freezing temperature can provoke sub- left over from groundwater forcing during the Last Glacial surface melting by providing a warmer boundary condition Maximum. against which geothermal heat establishes the subsurface temperature profile, but with climate warming, the waters 1.1.3 Carbon could surpass the freezing temperature, allowing heat to flow from above as well as below (Khvorostyanov et al., 2008b). Elevated methane concentrations have been measured in Another component of the simulation is the Yedoma, de- the water column over the Siberian shelf, even in areas of posits of wind-blown dust and organic carbon that accumu- shallow water where the permafrost should still be strongly lated on the coastal plains of exposed continental shelves intact (Shakhova, 2010; Shakhova et al., 2005). Chemical during glacial times (Zimov et al., 2006). The deposits con- and isotopic signatures of hydrocarbons adsorbed onto sur- tain a substantial fraction of organic carbon, consisting of face sediments indicate a thermal origin (Cramer and Franke, grass roots and remains preserved by the freezing conditions. 2005), suggesting that the methane is produced many kilo- When they thaw, they begin to release CO2 and methane meters deep in the sediment column. The apparent ability to the atmosphere (Dutta et al., 2006; Schuur et al., 2008; of this methane to transverse the barrier of the Ice Com- Zimov et al., 2006). Oxidation of the carbon can give off plex has been attributed to hypothesized openings in the ice enough heat to accelerate the melting driven by primary cli- (called “taliks”), resulting from lakes or rivers on the exposed mate forcing (Khvorostyanov et al., 2008b).
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