Homer Jones: a Personal Reminiscence
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Frank Knight 1933-2007 After Receiving His Ph.D
Frank Knight 1933-2007 After receiving his Ph.D. from Princeton University in 1959, Frank Knight joined the mathematics department of the University of Minnesota. Frank liked Minnesota; the cold weather proved to be no difficulty for him since he climbed in the Rocky Mountains even in the winter time. But there was one problem: airborne flour dust, an unpleasant output of the large companies in Minneapolis milling spring wheat from the farms of Minnesota. Frank discovered that he was allergic to flour dust and decided that he would try to move to another location. His research was already recognized as important. His first four papers were published in the Illinois Journal of Mathematics and the Transactions of the American Mathematical Society. At that time, J.L. Doob was one of the editors of the Illinois Journal and attracted some of the best papers in probability theory to the journal including some of Frank's. He was hired by Illinois and served on its faculty from 1963 until his retirement in 1991. After his retirement, Frank continued to be active in his research, perhaps even more active since he no longer had to grade papers and carefully prepare his classroom lectures as he had always done before. In 1994, Frank was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease. For many years, this did not slow him down mathematically. He also kept physically active. At first, his health declined slowly but, in recent years, more rapidly. He died on March 19, 2007. Frank Knight's contributions to probability theory are numerous and often strikingly creative. -
GEORGE J. STIGLER Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1101 East 58Th Street, Chicago, Ill
THE PROCESS AND PROGRESS OF ECONOMICS Nobel Memorial Lecture, 8 December, 1982 by GEORGE J. STIGLER Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1101 East 58th Street, Chicago, Ill. 60637, USA In the work on the economics of information which I began twenty some years ago, I started with an example: how does one find the seller of automobiles who is offering a given model at the lowest price? Does it pay to search more, the more frequently one purchases an automobile, and does it ever pay to search out a large number of potential sellers? The study of the search for trading partners and prices and qualities has now been deepened and widened by the work of scores of skilled economic theorists. I propose on this occasion to address the same kinds of questions to an entirely different market: the market for new ideas in economic science. Most economists enter this market in new ideas, let me emphasize, in order to obtain ideas and methods for the applications they are making of economics to the thousand problems with which they are occupied: these economists are not the suppliers of new ideas but only demanders. Their problem is comparable to that of the automobile buyer: to find a reliable vehicle. Indeed, they usually end up by buying a used, and therefore tested, idea. Those economists who seek to engage in research on the new ideas of the science - to refute or confirm or develop or displace them - are in a sense both buyers and sellers of new ideas. They seek to develop new ideas and persuade the science to accept them, but they also are following clues and promises and explorations in the current or preceding ideas of the science. -
CHAPTER 2020 Wanting Robustness in Macroeconomics$
CHAPTER 2020 Wanting Robustness in Macroeconomics$ Lars Peter Hansen* and Thomas J. Sargent{ * Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. [email protected] { Department of Economics, New York University and Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, California. [email protected] Contents 1. Introduction 1098 1.1 Foundations 1098 2. Knight, Savage, Ellsberg, Gilboa-Schmeidler, and Friedman 1100 2.1 Savage and model misspecification 1100 2.2 Savage and rational expectations 1101 2.3 The Ellsberg paradox 1102 2.4 Multiple priors 1103 2.5 Ellsberg and Friedman 1104 3. Formalizing a Taste for Robustness 1105 3.1 Control with a correct model 1105 3.2 Model misspecification 1106 3.3 Types of misspecifications captured 1107 3.4 Gilboa and Schmeidler again 1109 4. Calibrating a Taste for Robustness 1110 4.1 State evolution 1112 4.2 Classical model detection 1113 4.3 Bayesian model detection 1113 4.3.1 Detection probabilities: An example 1114 4.3.2 Reservations and extensions 1117 5. Learning 1117 5.1 Bayesian models 1118 5.2 Experimentation with specification doubts 1119 5.3 Two risk-sensitivity operators 1119 5.3.1 T1 operator 1119 5.3.2 T2 operator 1120 5.4 A Bellman equation for inducing robust decision rules 1121 5.5 Sudden changes in beliefs 1122 5.6 Adaptive models 1123 5.7 State prediction 1125 $ We thank Ignacio Presno, Robert Tetlow, Franc¸ois Velde, Neng Wang, and Michael Woodford for insightful comments on earlier drafts. Handbook of Monetary Economics, Volume 3B # 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISSN 0169-7218, DOI: 10.1016/S0169-7218(11)03026-7 All rights reserved. -
Alan Stuart Blinder February 2020
CURRICULUM VITAE Alan Stuart Blinder February 2020 Address Department of Economics and Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs 284 Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544-1021 Phone: 609-258-3358 FAX: 609-258-5398 E-mail: blinder (at) princeton (dot) edu Website : www.princeton.edu/blinder Personal Data Born: October 14, 1945, Brooklyn, New York. Marital Status: married (Madeline Blinder); two sons and four grandchildren Educational Background Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, l97l M.Sc. (Econ.), London School of Economics, 1968 A.B., Princeton University, summa cum laude in economics, 1967. Doctor of Humane Letters (honoris causa), Bard College, 2010 Government Service Vice Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1994-1996. Member, President's Council of Economic Advisers, 1993-1994. Deputy Assistant Director, Congressional Budget Office, 1975. Member, New Jersey Pension Review Committee, 2002-2003. Member, Panel of Economic Advisers, Congressional Budget Office, 2002-2005. Honors Bartels World Affairs Fellow, Cornell University, 2016. Selected as one of 55 “Global Thought Leaders” by the Carnegie Council, 2014. (See http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/studio/thought-leaders/index) Distinguished Fellow, American Economic Association, 2011-. Member, American Philosophical Society, 1996-. Audit Committee, 2003- Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1991-. John Kenneth Galbraith Fellow, American Academy of Political and Social Science, 2009-. William F. Butler Award, New York Association for Business Economics, 2013. 1 Adam Smith Award, National Association for Business Economics, 1999. Visionary Award, Council for Economic Education, 2013. Fellow, National Association for Business Economics, 2005-. Honorary Fellow, Foreign Policy Association, 2000-. Fellow, Econometric Society, 1981-. -
ECONOMIC MAN Vs HUMANITY Lyrics
DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS PRESENTS . ECONOMIC MAN vs. HUMANITY: A PUPPET RAP BATTLE STARRING: Storyline and lyrics by Simon Panrucker, Emma Powell and Kate Raworth Key concepts and quotes are drawn from Chapter 3 of Doughnut Economics. * VOICE OVER And so this concept of rational economic man is a cornerstone of economic theory and provides the foundation for modelling the interaction of consumers and firms. The next module will start tomorrow. If you have any questions, please visit your local Knowledge Bank. POTATO Hello? BRASH Hello? FACTS Shall we go to the knowledge bank? BRASH Yeah that didn’t make any sense! POTATO See you outside. They pop up outside. BRASH Let’s go! They go to The Knowledge Bank. PROF Welcome to The Knowledge Ba… oh, it’s you lot. What is it this time? FACTS The model of rational economic man PROF Look, it's just a starting point for building on POTATO Well from the start, something doesn’t sit right with me BRASH We’ve got questions! PROF sighs. PROF Ok, let me go through it again . THE RAP BEGINS PROF Listen, it’s quite simple... At the heart of economics is a model of man A simple distillation of a complicated animal Man is solitary, competing alone, Calculator in head, money in hand and no Relenting, his hunger for more is unending, Ego in heart, nature’s at his will for bending POTATO But that’s not me, it can’t be true! There’s much more to all the things humans say and do! BRASH It’s rubbish! FACTS Well, it is a useful tool For economists to think our reality through It’s said that all models are wrong but some -
Understanding Robert Lucas (1967-1981): His Influence and Influences
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Andrada, Alexandre F.S. Article Understanding Robert Lucas (1967-1981): his influence and influences EconomiA Provided in Cooperation with: The Brazilian Association of Postgraduate Programs in Economics (ANPEC), Rio de Janeiro Suggested Citation: Andrada, Alexandre F.S. (2017) : Understanding Robert Lucas (1967-1981): his influence and influences, EconomiA, ISSN 1517-7580, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Vol. 18, Iss. 2, pp. 212-228, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2016.09.001 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/179646 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ www.econstor.eu HOSTED BY Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect EconomiA 18 (2017) 212–228 Understanding Robert Lucas (1967-1981): his influence ଝ and influences Alexandre F.S. -
Understanding the Greenspan Standard
Commentary: Understanding the Greenspan Standard John B. Taylor No matter what metric you use, the Greenspan era gets exceedingly high marks for economic performance. The era always will be remembered for its price stability—with declining and now low, stable inflation—and for its economic stability—with only two historically short, mild recessions and three long expansions. An indi- cation of how different things are in the Greenspan era is that the current expansion is already one of the longest in American history. Alan Blinder and Ricardo Reis have provided us with a comprehen- sive evaluation of the Greenspan era, shedding light on key policy issues and controversies. I particularly liked their behind-the-scenes review of the move toward greater transparency. And I agree with their overall evaluation of Alan Greenspan that “when the score is toted up, we think he has legitimate claim to be the greatest central banker who ever lived.” Evaluating policy with a monetary policy rule The core of the Blinder-Reis paper is an evaluation of monetary policy through the lens of a policy rule, in particular the Taylor rule. Blinder and Reis find that this rule fits the Greenspan era very well. 107 108 John B. Taylor They then use the estimated rule for a number of purposes. They use it to identify key episodes, defined as the deviations from the rule. They also use the rule to back out Alan Greenspan’s implicit esti- mate of the natural rate of unemployment and to assess the correct response to a change in productivity growth. -
The Wealth Report
THE WEALTH REPORT A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON PRIME PROPERTY AND WEALTH 2011 THE SMALL PRINT TERMS AND DEFINITIONS HNWI is an acronym for ‘high-net-worth individual’, a person whose investible assets, excluding their principal residence, total between $1m and $10m. An UHNWI (ultra-high-net-worth individual) is a person whose investible assets, excluding their primary residence, are valued at over $10m. The term ‘prime property’ equates to the most desirable, and normally most expensive, property in a defined location. Commonly, but not exclusively, prime property markets are areas where demand has a significant international bias. The Wealth Report was written in late 2010 and early 2011. Due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to 100. For research enquiries – Liam Bailey, Knight Frank LLP, 55 Baker Street, London W1U 8AN +44 (0)20 7861 5133 Published on behalf of Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank by Think, The Pall Mall Deposit, 124-128 Barlby Road, London, W10 6BL. THE WEALTH REPORT TEAM FOR KNIGHT FRANK Editor: Andrew Shirley Assistant editor: Vicki Shiel Director of research content: Liam Bailey International data coordinator: Kate Everett-Allen Marketing: Victoria Kinnard, Rebecca Maher Public relations: Rosie Cade FOR CITI PRIVATE BANK Marketing: Pauline Loohuis Public relations: Adam Castellani FOR THINK Consultant editor: Ben Walker Creative director: Ewan Buck Chief sub-editor: James Debens Sub-editor: Jasmine Malone Senior account manager: Kirsty Grant Managing director: Polly Arnold Illustrations: Raymond Biesinger (covers), Peter Field (portraits) Infographics: Leonard Dickinson, Paul Wooton, Mikey Carr Images: 4Corners Images, Getty Images, Bridgeman Art Library PRINTING Ronan Daly at Pureprint Group Limited DISCLAIMERS KNIGHT FRANK The Wealth Report is produced for general interest only; it is not definitive. -
Milton Friedman: a Bibliography
__________________________________________________________________ MILTON FRIEDMAN: A BIBLIOGRAPHY Compiled by Julio H. Cole1 Milton Friedman (1912-2006), the world-famous author of Capitalism and Freedom (1962) and Free to Choose (1980), was one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, and his memory will live long in the lore of economics. To mark the centenary of his birth, Laissez-Faire is pleased to publish this bibliography, the most complete listing to date of his scholarly writings. It provides both an indication of the breadth of his interests, and a measure of the magnitude of his contribution to economic scholarship. A. Books by Milton Friedman .…………………………………………… 98 B. Other Publications by Milton Friedman .……………………………… 100 C. Published Correspondence ……………………………………………. 120 D. Published Interviews ...………………………………………………... 121 1Professor of Economics, Universidad Francisco Marroquín (Guatemala). This bibliography is based upon three earlier bibliographical orientations to Friedman‘s writings: Niels Thygesen, ―The Scientific Contributions of Milton Friedman,‖ Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 79 (1977): 84-98, Kurt Leube (ed.), The Essence of Friedman (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1987), pp. 526-51 (compiled by Gloria Valentine), and Marc Lavoie and Mario Seccareccia (eds.), Milton Friedman et son oeuvre (Montreal: Presses de l‘Université de Montréal, 1993), pp. 191-24 (compiled by Gilles Dostaler). It includes books authored, co-authored or edited by Milton Friedman, introductions and forewords to books by other authors, articles in scholarly and professional journals, comments and replies, chapters in edited volumes, articles in encyclopedias and general interest magazines, book reviews, and published interviews. It does not include articles published in newspapers or in news magazines, speeches, or testimonies to congressional committees. -
The Midway and Beyond: Recent Work on Economics at Chicago Douglas A
The Midway and Beyond: Recent Work on Economics at Chicago Douglas A. Irwin Since its founding in 1892, the University of Chicago has been home to some of the world’s leading economists.1 Many of its faculty members have been an intellectual force in the economics profession and some have played a prominent role in public policy debates over the past half-cen- tury.2 Because of their impact on the profession and inuence in policy Correspondence may be addressed to: Douglas Irwin, Department of Economics, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755; email: [email protected]. I am grateful to Dan Ham- mond, Steve Medema, David Mitch, Randy Kroszner, and Roy Weintraub for very helpful com- ments and advice; all errors, interpretations, and misinterpretations are solely my own. Disclo- sure: I was on the faculty of the then Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago in the 1990s and a visiting professor at the Booth School of Business in the fall of 2017. 1. To take a crude measure, nearly a dozen economists who spent most of their career at Chicago have won the Nobel Prize, or, more accurately, the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Eco- nomic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. The list includes Milton Friedman (1976), Theo- dore W. Schultz (1979), George J. Stigler (1982), Merton H. Miller (1990), Ronald H. Coase (1991), Gary S. Becker (1992), Robert W. Fogel (1993), Robert E. Lucas, Jr. (1995), James J. Heckman (2000), Eugene F. Fama and Lars Peter Hansen (2013), and Richard H. Thaler (2017). This list excludes Friedrich Hayek, who did his prize work at the London School of Economics and only spent a dozen years at Chicago. -
Reconsidering Frank Knight As an American Institutionalist
Reconsidering Frank Knight as an American Institutionalist Felipe Almeida Universidade Federal do Paraná Marindia Brites Universidade Federal do Paraná Gustavo Goulart Universidade Federal do Paraná Área 1 - História do Pensamento Econômico e Metodologia Resumo: No início do século XXI, Geoffrey Hodgson apresentou uma controvérsia sobre Frank Knight. Hodgson afirmou que, apesar da falta de apoio historiográfico, Knight foi um institucionalista americano. De acordo com Hodgson, as críticas de Knight à utilidade, preferências dadas, possibilidades tecnológicas fixas e individualismo metodológico seriam suficiente para classificar Knight como um institucionalista. O objetivo desse artigo é investigar a classificação controversa apresebtado por Hodgson. Para tal é realizado um estudo tanto da perspectiva do Knight quanto dos Institucionalistas sobre utilidade, preferências e tecnologia. O artigo conclui que o Knight e o Institutionalismo americano possuem uma conexão ténue, na melhor das hipóteses. Palavras-chave: Frank Knight, Institucionalismo Americano Classificação JEL: B31; B25 Abstract: At the beginning of the 21st century, Geoffrey Hodgson put out a controversial assertion about Frank Knight. He wrote that, despite lack of historiographic support, he saw Knight as an American Institutionalist. He asserted that Knight‘s criticisms of utility, given preferences, fixed technological possibilities, and methodological individualism made him fit into the Institutionalist frame. This paper aims to investigate Hodgson‘s claims, and through -
This PDF Is a Selection from a Published Volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Business Cycle Research and the Needs of Our Times Volume Author/Editor: Arthur F. Burns Volume Publisher: NBER Volume ISBN: Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/annu53-1 Publication Date: 1953 Chapter Title: Business Cycle Research and the Needs of Our Time Chapter Authors: Arthur F. Burns Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c12287 Chapter pages in book: (1 - 46) Business Cycle Research and the Needs of Our Times ARTHUR F. BURNS Director of Research .33rd ANNUAL REPORT NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. 4 Business Cycle Research and the Needs of Our Times ARTHUR F. BURNS Director of Research THIRTY-THIRD ANNUAL REPORT NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. 181 9 BROADWAY, NEW YORK 23, N. Y. MAY 1953 OFFICERS 1953 Harry Schennan, Chairman C. C. Balderston, President Percival F. Brundage, Vice-President George B. Roberts, Treasurer W. J. Carson, Executive Director DIRECTORS AT LARGE Donald R. Belcher, Westfield, New Jersey Wallace J. Campbell, Director, The Cooperative League of the USA Albert J. Hettinger, Jr., Lazard Freres and Company COPYRIGHT, 1953, BY Oswald W. Knauth, Beaufort, South Carolina NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. H. W. Laidler, Executive Director, League for Industrial Democracy 1819 BROADWAY, NEW YORK 23, N. Y. Shepard Morgan, New York City C. Reinold Noyes, Princeton, New Jersey ALL RIGHTS RESERVED George B. Roberts, Vice-President, National City Bank Beardsley Ruml, New York City TYPOGRAPHY BY OSCAR LEVENTHAL, INC. Harry Scherman, Chairman, Book-of-the-Month ,Club PRINTING BY BASSO PRINTING CORPORATION George Soule, Bennington College N.