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Omnibus Poll™ The 42nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group OMNIBUS POLL™ Fall 2009 Election 2009 Issue “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion” PREPARED BY 5 Milk Street, Portland, Maine 04101 Telephone: (207) 871-8622 • Fax: (207) 772-4842 www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com Named Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 by: TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE I. FACTS ABOUT THE 42nd PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP OMNIBUS POLL™ -Fall 2009 II. FINDINGS • Economic Questions - Maine 2 • National Public Policy Questions 11 • Healthcare Reform Questions 18 • Maine Public Policy Questions / November Elections 26 I. FACTS ABOUT THE 42ND PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP OMNIBUS POLL™ - FALL 2009 The most recent Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll™ was conducted between September 30thh and October 7th, 2009. This independent survey data is being released to the Maine media in the public interest. All interviews were completed at the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Interview Center by our in-house interview staff. This Omnibus survey is the 42nd in a series of Omnibus surveys conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group. Because we have conducted this poll on a frequent basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking on a range of important issues. A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 401 Maine adults was interviewed. Since the poll contains question relating to referendum and bond issues which will be voted on in the November 2009 elections, the survey was administered only to people who are registered voters and who identified themselves as “likely” to vote in the November 2009 elections. All others were excluded from participation. Although the survey instrument was administered only to registered voters who said that they are likely to vote in November, the results contained herein represent a snapshot of voters’ opinions at a point in time. They do not purport to predict final poll results. As Election Day was approximately four weeks away at the time of the poll, changes in final voter behavior may well occur between then and election day. This could result from increased voter scrutiny of the issues, media coverage, editorials, advertising, etc. The results of this off year election cycle will very likely be determined by the strength of the GOTV effort of both sides of key issues and in particular the gay marriage and Tabor referendum issues. The sample was stratified based on U.S. Census of Population and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of + 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the + 4.9 percent margin of error. The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political party affiliation, age and gender. The margins of error for specific sub-samples are higher than the + 4.9 percent margin of error for the entire sample. It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals. Pan Atlantic SMS Group is Maine’s largest independent marketing research and marketing consulting firm and is currently in its 25th year of successful operation. Pan Atlantic SMS Group reserves all copyright and property rights associated with this polling report. Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll™ must identify the source of information. Reproduction, by any party other than the media, is subject to express approval by Pan Atlantic SMS Group. For further information, please contact Patrick Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, at (207) 871-8622 x109 or by e- mail at [email protected]. Omnibus Poll™ - “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion” www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com • (207) 871-8622 October 2009 • Page 1 Economic Questions - Maine Omnibus Poll™ - “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion” www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com • (207) 871-8622 October 2009 • Page 2 II. FINDINGS – ECONOMIC QUESTIONS Direction of the State of Maine In general, do you think that the State of Maine is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? [Options were rotated] Feb Aug Mar July May Sept Jun Apr Oct 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2009 (N=400) (N=400) (N=401) (N=401) (N=400) (N=400) (N=400) (N=400) (N=401) Right 35.0% 21.5% 41.1% 40.4% 31.0% 37.3% 23.0% 32.0% 34.2% direction Wrong 48.0% 60.0% 41.6% 41.6% 51.0% 48.3% 59.8% 49.8% 51.1% direction Don’t know 17.0% 18.5% 17.2% 18.0% 18.0% 14.5% 17.3% 18.3% 14.7% Fifty-one percent (51.1%) of Maine citizens polled think that the State of Maine is headed in the wrong direction, while 34.2% indicated that the State is headed in the right direction. Fifteen percent (14.7%) of respondents are undecided. There has been an 11 percentage point increase in those who think that Maine is heading in the right direction, since June 2008. Residents of Congressional District 1 (42.1%) are much more likely to feel that Maine is heading in the right direction than those in Congressional District Two (26.1%). Omnibus Poll™ - “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion” www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com • (207) 871-8622 October 2009 • Page 3 II. FINDINGS – ECONOMIC QUESTIONS Direction of the State of Maine (cont.) Omnibus Poll™ - “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion” www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com • (207) 871-8622 October 2009 • Page 4 II. FINDINGS – ECONOMIC QUESTIONS Most Important Issue Facing the State of Maine Today What do you think is the most important issue facing the State of Maine today? [Unaided] Feb August March July May Sept. June April October Top Answers 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2009 (N=400) (N=400) (N=401) (N=401) (N=400) (N=400) (N=400) (N=400) (N=401) Jobs / 32.0% 35.3% 26.2% 19.2% 17.5% 23.3% 22.3% 42.3% 35.4% Employment Healthcare 10.5% 8.8% 15.2% 15.7% 11.3% 15.3% 8.0% 8.8% 15.2% Tax Reform or 14.3% 14.3% 13.4% 15.2% 21.5% 17.3% 13.3% 13.1% 12.4% Relief Balancing the 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 4.0% 7.8% 1.8% 3.3% 4.8% 9.0% State budget Gay marriage 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% Business climate / 0.5% 2.5% 2.0% 5.5% 0.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.0% 4.2% development The economy 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% (unspecified) Education and 8.5% 3.8% 7.2% 8.5% 10.3% 13.3% 4.8% 7.5% 2.7% Schools Cost of living 1.3% 4.0% 3.2% 1.2% 1.0% 3.5% 9.3% 2.5% 2.2% Government 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% spending Energy / 1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 4.9% 3.0% 0.0% 3.5% 2.0% 1.5% Environment Don’t know 7.5% 3.0% 6.7% 6.5% 5.0% 4.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.5% High level of 15.0% 6.8% 6.2% 5.0% 9.8% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.5% property taxes * Note: Respondents were asked to be more specific with their answer if they said “Economy” or “Taxes”. Thirty-five percent (35.4%) of Mainers polled indicated, unaided, that “Jobs / Employment” is the most important issue facing the state of Maine today. While 15.2% of those polled cited “healthcare” as the most important issue facing the State of Maine today, 12.4% cited “tax reform or relief.” Omnibus Poll™ - “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion” www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com • (207) 871-8622 October 2009 • Page 5 II. FINDINGS – ECONOMIC QUESTIONS Most Important Issue Facing the State of Maine Today (cont.) Other top answers cited are: “balancing the State budget” (9.0%), “gay marriage” (5.7%), “business climate / development” (4.2%), and “the economy” (3.2%). While there has been some decline (6.9%) since our April 2009 poll concern regarding “Jobs / Employment”, mention of this issue has increased by 13 percentage points between June 2008 and October 2009 (from 22.3% to 35.4%). Omnibus Poll™ - “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion” www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com • (207) 871-8622 October 2009 • Page 6 II. FINDINGS – ECONOMIC QUESTIONS Timing of Economic Resurgence in Maine When do you think that the Maine economy will come out of the current economic recession? [Unaided] April October 2009 2009 (N=400) (N=401) Already out of the recession N/A 0.5% Last half (April) / quarter (October) of 2009 6.8% 1.5% First half of 2010 9.8% 4.7% 27.4% Second half of 2010 14.3% 22.7% 2011 19.3% 21.2% 2012 or beyond 33.8% 37.4% Don’t know 16.3% 12.0% More than one-third (37.4%) of respondents think that Maine’s economy will come out of the current economic recession in 2012 or beyond, while 21.2% believe Maine will begin to recover in 2011. Twenty-three percent (22.7%) of respondents said the second half of 2010, 4.7% indicated the first half of 2010 (total of 27.4% for 2010), and 1.5% said the last quarter of 2009.
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