This issue brought to you by 2018 Gubernatorial Overview: Democrats Rising APRIL 6, 2018 VOLUME 2, NO. 7 If you’re wondering about the relevance of gubernatorial elections to federal races, look no further than Pennsylvania. Earlier this year, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court threw out the These are the initial ratings for the chart. You’ll notice a “new” category at congressional map on the grounds that it was a partisan gerrymander. the end “Lean Independent.” Maybe put that below the column that has 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings theWhen least the ratings. Republican-held But we don’t Legislature need Tilt drewIndependent, a new map Likely to tryIndependent, to Toss-Up Solidconform Independent to the new since standards, that would Democratic be vacant. Gov. Tom Wolf declined to approve it, sending the map-making decision back to the court, which FL Open (Scott, R) ultimately chose a favorable DemocraticToss-Up map. FL Open (Scott, R) Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican This is one key reason why the 2018 gubernatorial elections matter. MI Open (Snyder, R) Rauner (R-Ill.) Walker (I-Alaska)* Not only will 36 states (includingNV Open nine (Sandoval, of the 10 R) largest) elect a person to MI Open (Snyder, R)# OH Open (Kasich, R) be in charge, but this class of governors will also be in place during the Tilt R NV Open (Sandoval, R)# next round of regularly-scheduled redistricting after the 2020 census. OHGovernors Open (Kasich, in 35 states R) have veto power over congressional maps, and 27 Lean Democratic Lean Republican of those states are on the ballot this year. Wolf (D-Pa.) Hogan (R-Md.) Lean R BranstadRepublicans (R-Iowa) currently hold 33 governorships, defending 26 of those CO Open (Hickenlooper, D) Reynolds (R-Iowa) this year. Democrats are defending nine of their 16 governorships. And CT Open (Malloy, D) Sununu (R-N.H.) Likelythe one R Independent governor in Alaska is up for re-election as well. Ducey (R-Ariz.) ME Open (LePage, R) Walker (R-Wis.)# A majority doesn’t necessarily matter since governors aren’t a Hogan (R-Md.) legislative body. But Democrats are poised to grow their number of MN Open (Dayton, DFL)* Sununu (R-N.H.) governors, giving them more control over policy and a greater voice in NM Open (Martinez, R) Walker (R-Wis.) GAthe redistrictingOpen (R-Ga.) process. Likely Democratic Likely Republican KS DemocratsOpen (Brownback, are hoping R) to build on their success from 2017, when Brown (D-Ore.) Colyer (R-Kansas) OKthey Open took over(Fallin, the R) governorship in New Jersey and held Virginia with a TN Open (Haslam, R) Raimondo (D-R.I.)* Ducey (R-Ariz.) suburban surge that fueled Ralph Northam’s 9-point victory. GA Open (Deal, R) SolidThose R wins were good signs for Democratic chances to take over OK Open (Fallin, R) Abbottgovernorships (R-Texas) this year in other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Baker (R-Mass.) TN Open (Haslam, R) including New Mexico, Illinois, Maine, and Nevada. But the biggest Hutchinsonfights could (R-Ark.) be in the Midwest, where President Donald Trump’s Ivey (R-Ala.) Solid Democratic Solid Republican message resonated and the parties will be fighting over nearly all of the McMaster (R-S.C.) Cuomo (D-N.Y.) Abbott (R-Texas) Rickettsstates in the(R-Neb.) region. Ige (D-Hawaii) Baker (R-Mass.) ScottThe (R-Vt.) November elections are still seven months away and primaries CA Open (Brown, D) Hutchinson (R-Ark.) IDare Open underway, (Otter, but R) preparations have begun for the fall. The Republican SDGovernors Open (Daugaard, Association R) has already reserved television ad time for the Ivey (R-Ala.) WY Open (Mead, R) McMaster (R-S.C.) final weeks of the races in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio, which also host competitive Senate races, meaning there might be a premium Ricketts (R-Neb.) Tilt D Rauneron ad space. (R-Ill.) Italics for takeover Scott (R-Vt.) Based on Democrats’ success in special elections in state legislative ID Open (Otter, R) Leanraces overD the last 14 months, it’s possible that the electoral wave hits Wolf (D-Pa.) SD Open (Daugaard, R) hardest at the state level and allows Democrats to win back many of the CO Open (Hickenlooper, D) WY Open (Mead, R) CT900 Openseats lost(Malloy, during D) President Barack Obama’s time in office. But if that # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans MEhole Open is too (LePage,big for a one-cycleR) Italics forrecovery, takeover winning as many governorships Takeovers in Italics NMas possible Open (Martinez, might be theR) Italicsmost efficientfor takeover way for the party to regain its VAfooting Open in (McAuliffe, the short term D) and lay a foundation for the future. Likely D NJInsideElections.com Open (Christie, R) Italics for takeover Solid D Brown (R-Ore.) Cuomo (D-N.Y.) Ige (D-Hawaii) Raimondo (D-R.I.) CA Open (Brown, D) MN Open (Dayton, DFL) Lean I Walker (I-Alaska) 2018 Gubernatorial Overview: State-by-State Analysis ALABAMA. Kay Ivey (R), assumed governorship April 2017. June it takes to win, particularly after a late primary. Ducey could become 5 primary. Ivey, the first female governor of Alabama since the late 1960s, vulnerable if a sizable wave develops against the GOP. Arizona is one is running for a full term after succeeding embattled Gov. Robert Bentley. of four states where the Republican Governors Associations made She faces Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, state Sen. Bill Hightower, early ad reservations for the final eight weeks of the campaign just in and evangelist Scott Dawson in the GOP primary, but should still be the case, considering the state will also host a competitive U.S. Senate race. nominee. In March, Ivey signed the state’s first tax cut in 10 years. On Likely R. the other side of the aisle, Democrats believe Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Farley, Feb. 23-March 5 (RVs)—General Maddox gives them the best chance in November, but he must get past Election Ballot: Ducey over Farley 49%-44%. former Alabama chief justice Sue Bell Cobb and others in the Democratic PPP for David Garcia, Jan. 5-7 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Garcia over primary. Democrat Doug Jones won the high-profile Senate special Ducey 43%-42%, Ducey over Farley 42%-39%. Democratic Primary Ballot: election in December, but his victory had more to do with Roy Moore Garcia over Farley 43%-22%. Ducey job rating: 35% approve/47% disapprove. than a Democratic resurgence statewide. Solid R. ARKANSAS. Asa Hutchinson (R), elected 2014 (55%). May 22 ALASKA. Bill Walker (I), elected 2014 (48%). June 1 filing primary. June 19 primary runoff.Democrats are hoping to pick off deadline. Aug. 21 primary. Democrats helped Walker defeat GOP Gov. one House seat in the Razorback State but there isn’t much buzz about Sean Parnell by 2 points in 2014 but don’t consider him one of their defeating the governor. The most interesting part of the race might be own and won’t help him win re-election. Former state House Speaker the GOP primary, where Hutchinson faces FOX News contributor Jan Mike Chenault, former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy, and businessman Morgan, who owns an indoor shooting range. Former NASA scientist Scott Hawkins are the top contenders for the GOP nomination. A late and nonprofit executive Jared Henderson is the likely Democratic primary gives the party little time to regroup, but Trump won the state nominee. Trump won Arkansas by 27 points in 2016. Solid R. by 15 points in 2016 and Walker has low approval ratings. Democrats have until June to find a candidate of their own with state Sen. Bill CALIFORNIA. Open; Jerry Brown (D) term-limited. June 5 Wielechowski and former Sen. Mark Begich mentioned as potential primary. More than two dozen candidates are running to replace Brown, candidates. Begich is a big name but there is no indication he is actively vying for the top two slots in the primary. Due to a lack of strong GOP taking steps toward a run. This is a top GOP takeover opportunity. Move candidates, two Democrats look likely to move on to the general election from Toss-up to Tilt Republican. and potentially impact Republican turnout down the ballot in November in competitive House races. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is positioned to ARIZONA. Doug Ducey (R), elected 2014 (53%). May 30 filing finish first while former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and deadline. Aug. 28 primary. Ducey hasn’t been much of a takeover state Treasurer John Chiang are vying for the second slot. Former Hillary target for most of the cycle. But Democrats felt some renewed Clinton political director/unsuccessful 2014 21st District nominee/ optimism recently when public school teachers took to the streets former Hill chief of staff Amanda Renteria was a late entry into the protesting for higher salaries and, separately, the governor tweeted race but it’s unclear how she’ll compete. Newsom, the former mayor about a football player leaving the Arizona Cardinals while students of San Francisco, looks like a candidate from central casting, married to were waiting outside his office to talk to him about gun violence. actress/filmmaker Jennifer Siebel Newsom and boasting progressive Still, other Democratic sources are skeptical state Sen. Steve Farley or credentials, but Democrats stripped his office of most of its power when Arizona State University professor David Garcia (who lost a race for Republican Cruz Bustamante held the position. Democrats will hold the superintendent of public instruction 54-46 percent in 2014) have what governorship with someone. Solid D.