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2018 Gubernatorial Overview: Democrats Rising

April 6, 2018 Volume 2, No. 7 If you’re wondering about the relevance of gubernatorial elections to federal races, look no further than Pennsylvania. Earlier this year, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court threw out the These are the initial ratings for the chart. You’ll notice a “new” category at congressional map on the grounds that it was a partisan gerrymander. the end “Lean Independent.” Maybe put that below the column that has 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings theWhen least the ratings. Republican-held But we don’t Legislature need Tilt drewIndependent, a new map Likely to tryIndependent, to Toss-Up Solidconform Independent to the new since standards, that would Democratic be vacant. Gov. Tom Wolf declined to approve it, sending the map-making decision back to the court, which FL Open (Scott, R) ultimately chose a favorable DemocraticToss-Up map. FL Open (Scott, R) Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican This is one key reason why the 2018 gubernatorial elections matter. MI Open (Snyder, R) Rauner (R-Ill.) Walker (I-Alaska)* Not only will 36 states (includingNV Open nine (Sandoval, of the 10 R) largest) elect a person to MI Open (Snyder, R)# OH Open (Kasich, R) be in charge, but this class of governors will also be in place during the Tilt R NV Open (Sandoval, R)# next round of regularly-scheduled redistricting after the 2020 census. OHGovernors Open (Kasich, in 35 states R) have veto power over congressional maps, and 27 Lean Democratic Lean Republican of those states are on the ballot this year. Wolf (D-Pa.) Hogan (R-Md.) Lean R BranstadRepublicans (R-Iowa) currently hold 33 governorships, defending 26 of those CO Open (Hickenlooper, D) Reynolds (R-Iowa) this year. Democrats are defending nine of their 16 governorships. And CT Open (Malloy, D) Sununu (R-N.H.) Likelythe one R Independent governor in Alaska is up for re-election as well. Ducey (R-Ariz.) ME Open (LePage, R) Walker (R-Wis.)# A majority doesn’t necessarily matter since governors aren’t a Hogan (R-Md.) legislative body. But Democrats are poised to grow their number of MN Open (Dayton, DFL)* Sununu (R-N.H.) governors, giving them more control over policy and a greater voice in NM Open (Martinez, R) Walker (R-Wis.) GAthe redistrictingOpen (R-Ga.) process. Likely Democratic Likely Republican KS DemocratsOpen (Brownback, are hoping R) to build on their success from 2017, when Brown (D-Ore.) Colyer (R-Kansas) OKthey Open took over(Fallin, the R) governorship in and held Virginia with a TN Open (Haslam, R) Raimondo (D-R.I.)* Ducey (R-Ariz.) suburban surge that fueled Ralph Northam’s 9-point victory. GA Open (Deal, R) SolidThose R wins were good signs for Democratic chances to take over OK Open (Fallin, R) Abbottgovernorships (R-) this year in other states won in 2016, Baker (R-Mass.) TN Open (Haslam, R) including , , , and . But the biggest Hutchinsonfights could (R-Ark.) be in the Midwest, where President ’s Ivey (R-Ala.) Solid Democratic Solid Republican message resonated and the parties will be fighting over nearly all of the McMaster (R-S.C.) Cuomo (D-N.Y.) Abbott (R-Texas) Rickettsstates in the(R-Neb.) region. Ige (D-Hawaii) Baker (R-Mass.) ScottThe (R-Vt.) November elections are still seven months away and primaries CA Open (Brown, D) Hutchinson (R-Ark.) IDare Open underway, (Otter, but R) preparations have begun for the fall. The Republican SDGovernors Open (Daugaard, Association R) has already reserved television ad time for the Ivey (R-Ala.) WY Open (Mead, R) McMaster (R-S.C.) final weeks of the races in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio, which also host competitive Senate races, meaning there might be a premium Ricketts (R-Neb.) Tilt D Rauneron ad space. (R-Ill.) Italics for takeover Scott (R-Vt.) Based on Democrats’ success in special elections in state legislative ID Open (Otter, R) Leanraces overD the last 14 months, it’s possible that the electoral wave hits Wolf (D-Pa.) SD Open (Daugaard, R) hardest at the state level and allows Democrats to win back many of the CO Open (Hickenlooper, D) WY Open (Mead, R) CT900 Openseats lost(Malloy, during D) President ’s time in office. But if that # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans MEhole Open is too (LePage,big for a one-cycleR) Italics forrecovery, takeover winning as many governorships Takeovers in Italics NMas possible Open (Martinez, might be theR) Italicsmost efficientfor takeover way for the party to regain its VAfooting Open in (McAuliffe, the short term D) and lay a foundation for the future. Likely D NJInsideElections.com Open (Christie, R) Italics for takeover Solid D Brown (R-Ore.) Cuomo (D-N.Y.) Ige (D-Hawaii) Raimondo (D-R.I.) CA Open (Brown, D) MN Open (Dayton, DFL)

Lean I Walker (I-Alaska) 2018 Gubernatorial Overview: State-by-State Analysis

ALABAMA. Kay Ivey (R), assumed governorship April 2017. June it takes to win, particularly after a late primary. Ducey could become 5 primary. Ivey, the first female governor of Alabama since the late 1960s, vulnerable if a sizable wave develops against the GOP. Arizona is one is running for a full term after succeeding embattled Gov. Robert Bentley. of four states where the Republican Governors Associations made She faces Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, state Sen. Bill Hightower, early ad reservations for the final eight weeks of the campaign just in and evangelist Scott Dawson in the GOP primary, but should still be the case, considering the state will also host a competitive U.S. Senate race. nominee. In March, Ivey signed the state’s first tax cut in 10 years. On Likely R. the other side of the aisle, Democrats believe Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Farley, Feb. 23-March 5 (RVs)—General Maddox gives them the best chance in November, but he must get past Election Ballot: Ducey over Farley 49%-44%. former Alabama chief justice Sue Bell Cobb and others in the Democratic PPP for David Garcia, Jan. 5-7 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Garcia over primary. Democrat Doug Jones won the high-profile Senate special Ducey 43%-42%, Ducey over Farley 42%-39%. Democratic Primary Ballot: election in December, but his victory had more to do with Roy Moore Garcia over Farley 43%-22%. Ducey job rating: 35% approve/47% disapprove. than a Democratic resurgence statewide. Solid R. ARKANSAS. Asa Hutchinson (R), elected 2014 (55%). May 22 ALASKA. Bill Walker (I), elected 2014 (48%). June 1 filing primary. June 19 primary runoff.Democrats are hoping to pick off deadline. Aug. 21 primary. Democrats helped Walker defeat GOP Gov. one House seat in the Razorback State but there isn’t much buzz about Sean Parnell by 2 points in 2014 but don’t consider him one of their defeating the governor. The most interesting part of the race might be own and won’t help him win re-election. Former state House Speaker the GOP primary, where Hutchinson faces FOX News contributor Jan Mike Chenault, former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy, and businessman Morgan, who owns an indoor shooting range. Former NASA scientist Scott Hawkins are the top contenders for the GOP nomination. A late and nonprofit executive Jared Henderson is the likely Democratic primary gives the party little time to regroup, but Trump won the state nominee. Trump won Arkansas by 27 points in 2016. Solid R. by 15 points in 2016 and Walker has low approval ratings. Democrats have until June to find a candidate of their own with state Sen. Bill CALIFORNIA. Open; Jerry Brown (D) term-limited. June 5 Wielechowski and former Sen. Mark Begich mentioned as potential primary. More than two dozen candidates are running to replace Brown, candidates. Begich is a big name but there is no indication he is actively vying for the top two slots in the primary. Due to a lack of strong GOP taking steps toward a run. This is a top GOP takeover opportunity. Move candidates, two Democrats look likely to move on to the general election from Toss-up to Tilt Republican. and potentially impact Republican turnout down the ballot in November in competitive House races. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is positioned to ARIZONA. Doug Ducey (R), elected 2014 (53%). May 30 filing finish first while former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and deadline. Aug. 28 primary. Ducey hasn’t been much of a takeover state Treasurer John Chiang are vying for the second slot. Former Hillary target for most of the cycle. But Democrats felt some renewed Clinton political director/unsuccessful 2014 21st District nominee/ optimism recently when public school teachers took to the streets former Hill chief of staff Amanda Renteria was a late entry into the protesting for higher salaries and, separately, the governor tweeted race but it’s unclear how she’ll compete. Newsom, the former mayor about a football player leaving the Arizona Cardinals while students of San Francisco, looks like a candidate from central casting, married to were waiting outside his office to talk to him about gun violence. actress/filmmaker Jennifer Siebel Newsom and boasting progressive Still, other Democratic sources are skeptical state Sen. Steve Farley or credentials, but Democrats stripped his office of most of its power when Arizona State University professor David Garcia (who lost a race for Republican Cruz Bustamante held the position. Democrats will hold the superintendent of public instruction 54-46 percent in 2014) have what governorship with someone. Solid D.

Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor @InsideElections [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections InsideElections.com Nathaniel Rakich Contributing Analyst [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Leah Askarinam Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Robert Yoon Will Taylor [email protected] [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist @nathanlgonzales @leahaskarinam [email protected] [email protected]

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2 April 6, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research SurveyUSA, March 22-25 (LVs)—Primary Ballot: Newsom 22%, Villaraigosa 14%, John Cox (R) 11%, Chiang 9%, Travis Allen (R) 7%, Delaine 2018 House Ratings Eastin (D) 3%, Robert Newman (R) 3%. PPIC, March 4-13 (LVs)—Gov. Primary Ballot: Newsom 28%, Cox 14%, Toss-Up (8R, 2D) CA-48 from Lean R to Tilt R # Villaraigosa 12%, Allen 10%, Chiang 6%, Eastin 5%. CA 39 (Open; Royce, R) NJ 2 (Open; LoBiondo, R) IL-12 from Likely R to Lean R # CA 49 (Open; Issa, R) NJ 11 (Open; Frelinghuysen, R) IA-02 from Likely D to Solid D (So, this will be off the chart or Dropped from the List) MN 1 (Open; Walz, DFL) TX 23 (Hurd, R) COLORADO. Open; John Hickenlooper (D) term-limited. June KY 6 (Barr, R)# from Solid R to Lean R (note this is a two-category move) FYI, 26 primary. Both parties face competitive primaries in a state Clinton MN 2 (Lewis, R) VA 10 (Comstock, R) newly added to the list won by 5 points and Republicans haven’t won a gubernatorial election MN 8 (Open; Nolan, DFL) WA 8 (Open; Reichert, R) MI 6 (Upton, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (also newly added) from Solid D to Likely D * (newly added) in 16 years. On the Tilt Democratic (4D, 2R) Tilt Republican (14R) NY 11 Donovan, D)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) Democratic side, AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) CA 10 (Denham, R) NY-22 from Lean R to Tilt R # NC 9 (Pittinger, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) former state treasurer AZ 2 (Open; McSally, R) CA 25 (Knight, R) PA-6 from Likely R to Lean R # Cary Kennedy made NH 1 (Open; Shea-Porter, D) CA 48 (Rohrabacher, R) TX-7 from Likely R to Lean R # a splash by finishing NJ 5 (Gottheimer, D) CO 6 (Coffman, R) VA 5 (Garrett, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) first in the March NV 3 (Open; Rosen, D) FL 26 (Curbelo, R) caucuses. But Rep. PA 15 (Open; Dent, R) IA 1 (Blum,R) Jared Polis is still MI 11 (Open; Trott, R) a top contender, NE 2 (Bacon, R) particularly with NY 19 (Faso, R) his personal money, Al Drago/CQ Roll Call NY 22 (Tenney, R) Jared Polis while Lt. Gov. Donna PA 1 (Fitzpatrick, R) Lynne is a serious candidate, and former City Mayor Michael IL 6 (Roskam, R)# Bloomberg just pledged to spend $1 million to help former state Sen. PA 17 (Rothfus, R) TX 7 (Culberson, R) Mike Johnston. On the Republican side, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D)# (relative of President George H.W. Bush) looks like the frontrunner, but Lean Democratic (1D, 1R) Lean Republican (9R) Move from Toss Up to Tilt D state Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (ex-wife of 6th District Rep. FL 7 (Murphy, D) CA 45 (Walters, R) NJ 7 (Lance, R) AZ 2 (McSally, R)# Mike Coffman), investment banker Doug Robinson (who also happens FL 27 (Open; Ros-Lehtinen, R) IL 12 (Bost, R) UT 4 (Love, R) Move from Lean Republican to Toss-up to be ’s nephew), and former state Rep. Victor Mitchell KS 2 (Open; Jenkins, R) CA 24 (Carbajal, D)# (who primed his early campaign with $3 million of his own money) are KS 3 (Yoder, R) From Likely D to Dropped From List credible candidates as well. Republicans probably dodged disaster when KY 6 (Barr, R) former Rep. Tom Tancredo decided not to run, but real estate broker MI 8 (Bishop, R) FL 13 (Crist, D)# Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic Steve Barlock is trying to run as the Trump candidate. This looks like an MN 3 (Paulsen, R) uphill battle for any Republican this cycle. Lean D. Likely Democratic (5D, 2R) Likely Republican (21R) GA 6 (Handel, R)* Magellan Strategies, March 20-23 (LVs)—Dem. Primary Ballot: Polis Move from Lean R to Likely R CA 7 (Bera, D) AZ 8 (Vacant, R) NY 11 Donovan, R) 27%, Kennedy 23%, Johnston 8%, Lynne 5%. IDs: Polis 55% favorable/7% FL 13 (Crist, D) CA 21 (Valadao, R) NY 24 (Katko, R) MT A-L (Gianforte, R)* unfavorable, Kennedy 42%/3%. MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) CA 50 (Hunter, R) OH 12 (Vacant, R) Move from Lean R to Likely R NV 4 (Open; Kihuen, D) GA 6 (Handel, R) PA 10 (Perry, R) CONNECTICUT. Open; Dannel Malloy (D) not seeking MN 7 (Peterson, DFL)# PA 5 (Open; Meehan, R) IL 13 (Davis, R) TX 32 (Sessions, R) Move from Lean D to Likely D re-election. June 12 filing deadline. Aug. 14 primary.With large PA 6 (Open; Costello, R)# IA 3 (Young, R) VA 2 (Taylor, R) candidate fields it might be easier to list who isn’t running for governor PA 8 (Cartwright, (D) ME 2 (Poliquin, R) VA 5 (Garrett, R) NE 2 (Bacon, R)# Lean Republican to Tilt Republican in Connecticut this year. Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz MI 6 (Upton, R) VA 7 (Brat, R) and businessman/2010 Senate nominee Ned Lamont look like the MT A-L (Gianforte, R) WA 5 (McMorris NJ 2 (OPEN; LoBiondo, R)# Democratic frontrunners while Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin and Rodgers, R) Move onto the board at Lean Republican NC 9 (Pittenger, R) others are also running. The Republican field includes state Sen. Toni NC 13 (Budd, R) VA 2 (Taylor, R)# Boucher, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, New Britain Mayor Erin Move onto the board at Likely Republican Stewart, hedge fund founder David Stemerman, financial executive Bob NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R) Stefanowski, former U.S. Comptroller General Dave Walker and others. VA 7 (Brat, 4)# Move onto the board at Likely Republican Republicans will undoubtedly try to couple the Democratic nominee to GOP DEM Malloy. But it’s not clear whether it will work or if a state that Clinton 115th Congress 240 195 VA 10 (Comstock, R)# won by 14 points will elect a Republican with President Trump in the Currently Solid 184 182 From Tilt R to Toss Up Oval Office. Lean D. Competitive 57 12 Needed for majority 218 FLORIDA. Open; Rick Scott (R) term-limited. May 4 filing deadline. # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Takeovers in Italics Aug. 28 primary. The governor is term limited but isn’t likely to fade away. He’s likely to announce his challenge to Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson on Monday. Meanwhile, both parties have competitive primaries to replace

InsideElections.com April 6, 2018 3 him. The GOP nomination should come down to state Agriculture made national news by threatening Delta Airlines for severing ties to the Commissioner/former Rep. Adam Putnam, Rep. Ron DeSantis, and state National Rifle Association after the Parkland, Florida shootings. If he House Speaker Richard Corcoran. Putnam has been preparing to run wins the nomination, Democrats will make the case that his views put for governor for years. DeSantis doesn’t start with the same statewide the state’s business interests in jeopardy (including its ability to attract name identification but appears to have support from President Trump the new Amazon headquarters), similar to the successful case they made and big-name GOP donors including Sheldon Adelson, Rebekah Mercer, in North Carolina in 2016. Republicans will attack either Abrams or and . The top Democratic contenders include former Rep. Evans for raising taxes and growing government. Likely R, but could get Gwen Graham (daughter of former governor and senator Bob Graham), more competitive. wealthy real estate executive Chris King, wealthy Miami Beach Mayor Meeting Street Research, March 1, 3-4 (GOP LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Philip Levine, and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. Stories about an FBI Cagle 38%, Kemp 10%, Hill 10%, Tippins 3%, Williams 2%, Urbach 1%. IDs: investigation have plagued Gillum’s campaign and caused Republicans to Cagle 55% favorable/17% unfavorable, Hill 19%/2%, Kemp 38%/5%, Tippins root for him in the Democratic primary, even though the mayor was not 10%/3%. the subject. Wealthy attorney/Democratic donor John Morgan declined Clarion Research for Hunter Hill, March 2-3 (IVR)(RVs)—GOP Primary to run as a Democrat or an independent. Late primaries will leave little Ballot: Cagle 33%, Hill 17%, Kemp 9%, Tippins 3%, Williams 3%. time for both parties to unite for the general election. President Trump Mason Dixon Polling, Feb. 20-23 (RVs)—General Election Ballots: Cagle won Florida 49-48 percent in 2016, and Barack Obama won it narrowly in over Abrams 45%-39%, Cagle over Evans 47%-38%. GOP Primary Ballot: 2008 and 2012, so the state looks to continue it’s toss-up status. But in this Cagle 27%, Kemp 13%, Tippins 12%, Hill 11%, Williams 5%, Urbach 1%. political environment, toss-up states are likely to go Democratic. Toss-up. Dem. Primary Ballot: Abrams over Evans 29%-17%. IDs: Abrams 23% Gravis Marketing, Feb. 26 - March 19 (LVs)—General Election Ballots: favorable/5% unfavorable, Evans 14%/1%, Cagle 53%/7%, Kemp 20%/8%, Putnam over Gillum 34%-28%, Putnam over Graham 34%-32%, Gillum over Tippins 19%/3%, Hill 16%/2%, Williams 9%/2%. Corcoran 33%-26%, Gillum over DeSantis 33%-29%, Graham over Corcoran 32%-28%, Graham over DeSantis 33%-30%. Dem. Primary Ballot: Levine HAWAII. David Ige (D) elected 2014 (49%). June 5 filing deadline. 13%, Gillum 11%, Graham 9%, King 2%, Jeff Greene 2%. GOP Primary Aug. 11 primary. Ige made national news in January when a ballistic Ballot: DeSantis 19%, Putnam 17%, Corcoran 3%. missile alert went out to nearly 1.5 million Hawaii residents. It took the Quinnipiac, Feb. 23-26 (RVs)—IDs: Graham 10% favorable/5% governor 17 minutes to inform his constituents that it was a false alarm unfavorable, Levine 12%/7%, Gillum 7%/3%, King 3%/3%, Putnam because he couldn’t remember his Twitter password. Ige was already 15%/10%, DeSantis 11%/6%, Corcoran 4%/9%. locked in a difficult primary battle with Rep. Colleen Hanabusa. And Gravis Marketing, Feb. 1-18 (RVs)—General Election Ballots: Putnam even Hawaii has a recent history of throwing out governors, considering Ige with Gillum at 30%, Putnam over Graham 33%-29%. Gillum over Corcoran knocked off Gov. Neil Abercrombie 66-31 percent in the 2014 Democratic 32%-23%. Graham over Corcoran 33%-24%. Democratic Primary Ballot: primary. This year’s winner will be a heavy favorite against state House Graham 12%, Levine 12%, Gillum 9%, King 2%, Greene 1%. GOP Primary Minority Leader Andria Tupola in the fall. A Democrat will win in Ballot: Putnam 18%, DeSantis 16%, Corcoran 3%, Bob White 2%. November. Solid D. Mason Dixon Polling, Jan. 29-Feb. 1 (RVs)—Dem. Primary Ballot: Graham Mason Dixon, March 13-18 (Dem. Primary Voters)—Dem. Primary 20%, Levine 17% Gillum 10%, King 4%. GOP Primary Ballot: Putnam 27%, Ballot: Hanabusa 47%, Ige 27%, Hee 11%. IDs: Hanabusa 47% favorable/21% DeSantis 23%, Corcoran 7%. unfavorable, Ige 29%/27%, Clayton Hee 20%/24%.

GEORGIA. Open; Nathan Deal (R) term-limited. May 22 primary. IDAHO. Open; Butch Otter (R) not seeking re-election. May 15 July 24 primary runoff.Democrats believed that demographics were primary. Democrats are emboldened to challenge everywhere, but don’t shifting Georgia into their column right up until Trump won it 51-46 expect them to win in Idaho, even in an electoral wave. Republicans have percent in 2016. Now Democrats are hoping a midterm backlash against a competitive primary between Lt. Gov. Brad Little, Rep. Raúl Labrador, the president will give them their first gubernatorial victory in 20 years. and wealthy real estate developer Tommy Ahlquist. One of them will be First, they must the next governor of a state where Clinton couldn’t reach 28 percent in choose a nominee in a the last presidential election and Democrats haven’t won a gubernatorial competitive primary race in over a quarter century. Former state Rep. Paulette Jordan and battle between former 2014 nominee A.J. Balukoff are vying for the Democratic nomination. state House Minority Little has the support of the outgoing governor. Solid R. Leader Stacey Abrams and former state ILLINOIS. Bruce Rauner (R), elected 2014 (50%). Billionaire Rep. Stacey Evans. businessman J.B. Pritzker (45 percent) defeated businessman Chris There isn’t a lot of Kennedy (24 percent) and state Sen. Daniel Biss (27 percent) in the difference between March 20 Democratic primary. The Democratic nomination is valuable the two candidates considering Clinton won Illinois 56-39 percent in 2016. Rauner squeaked Stacey Abrams on issues but Abrams out a 51-48 percent GOP primary victory against state Rep. Jeanne has done a better job of cultivating a national following. The Republican Ives, who embodied conservative criticism against a governor who field includes Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, state raised income taxes and increased funding for abortions during his Sen. Michael Williams, former state Sen. Hunter Hill and others. Cagle first term. It’s clear that Rauner has problems within the Republican

4 April 6, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research base, a dynamic that no statewide GOP candidate can afford. In 2016, Branstad became President Trump’s ambassador to China. It looks Republican Sen. Mark Kirk ran for re-election but got sideways with like Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett, former speaker of the state grassroots Republicans by opposing Trump and lost to Democratic House, fell short of the valid signatures necessary to make the ballot to Rep. Tammy Duckworth 55-40 percent. Pritzker certainly isn’t a perfect challenge Reynolds in the GOP primary. Democrats have a competitive candidate considering his connections to infamous Democratic Gov. primary between wealthy businessman Fred Hubbell, state Sen. Rod Blagojevich, but he’s still a Democrat in a Democratic state in a Nate Boulton, former state party chairman Andy McGuire (who also Democratic year. The biggest winner in the race might be local television has personal money), former state Utilities Board Chairman/former stations after two mega-rich nominees battle in what could be one of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner John Norris and others. If most expensive gubernatorial races in history. Lean Democratic. no one receives more than 35 percent in the primary, the nomination Ogden & Fry, March 23 (LVs)—General Election Ballot: Pritzker over moves to a party convention. This isn’t a great Democratic opportunity Rauner 46%-28%. in a state where Trump defeated Clinton by 9 points, but the Hawkeye Simon Poll, Feb. 19-25 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Pritzker over State could swing back to competitive and the race is still worth Rauner 50%-35%. watching. Lean R. PPP for Biss, Feb. 5-6 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Pritzker over Rauner Selzer & Co. for Des Moines Register/Mediacom, Jan. 28-31 (LVs)—General 48%-35%. IDs: Rauner 26% favorable/63% unfavorable, Pritzker 33%/42%. Election Ballots: Reynolds over Boulton 41%-37%, Reynolds over Hubbell 42%-37%, Reynolds over Norris 41%-30%, Reynolds over McGuire 42%-30%. IOWA. Kim Reynolds (R) ascended to office May 2017. June 5 Reynolds ID: 48% favorable/32% unfavorable. primary. Reynolds, a former state senator and lieutenant governor, is running for a full term after taking office last year when Gov. Terry KANSAS. Jeff Colyer (R) ascended to governorship 2018. June 1 filing deadline. Aug. 7 primary.Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer became governor when Republican Gov. Sam Brownback was confirmed as ambassador to the U.S. State Department’s Office of International Religious Freedom. Candidate Conversation But Colyer may not make it out of the primary, considering he faces Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who is aligned closely with Russ Fagg (R) President Trump. Former state Sen. Jim Barnett (who lost to Democrat Senate - Rating: Tilt Kathleen Sebelius in the 2006 governor’s race), state Insurance Democratic Commissioner Ken Selzer and others are running on the Republican side as well. The Democratic primary includes former Wichita Mayor Interview Date: Feb. 14, 2018 Carl Brewer (who some Democrats believe has the most general election Date of Birth: June 26, 1960; potential), state Sen. Laura Kelly (who has support from former Gov. Billings, Mont. Kathleen Sebelius), former state Agriculture Secretary Joshua Svaty, Education: Whitman College state House Minority Leader Jim Ward and others. Democrats came (1983), Univ. of Montana Law within 3 points of defeating Brownback in 2014, so a competitive race

Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call School (1986) is possible, particularly considering Kobach’s polarizing profile and Elected Office:Montana State Legislature (two terms, elected 1990); Colyer’s connection to Brownback. But a lot of things need to go right district court judge (1994) for Democrats to win here. Businessman Greg Orman is running as an independent and complicates Democratic plans. Democrats supported Current Outlook: Before facing Democrat in the Senate, his 2014 independent challenge to GOP Sen. Pat Roberts. They won’t former Billings District Judge Russ Fagg needs to make sure GOP voters know he exists ahead of a primary. It’s probable that Montanans are do so again this cycle, but he starts with higher-than-usual name more familiar with State Auditor , but Fagg has support identification and could attract disaffected Republicans who can’t vote from three former governors—, and Judy for a Democrat. Likely R. Martz—and former Reps. and . Businessman JMC Analytics for Kobach, March 15-17 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: is also running. Kobach 31%, Colyer 18%, Barnett 10%, Selzer 4%. Evaluation: We hadn’t heard much about Russ Fagg before coming to Expedition Strategies for Ward, March 5-8 (Dem. LVs)—Dem. Primary meet with us at the Roll Call offices, just after Rosendale had released Ballot: Kelly 19%, Ward 17%, Svaty 7%. a poll showing him leading the race. But Fagg made a convincing case Remington Research, Feb. 13-14 (Likely Republican Primary Voters)— GOP that he could win the primary and the general, and should be considered Primary Ballot: Colyer 23%, Kobach 21%, Barnett 8%, Wink Hartman 5%, as a serious contender. He points to the people he’s met and difficult Hutton 3%, Selzer 3%. IDs: Kobach 42% favorable/35% unfavorable, Colyer cases he’s handled in his two decades as a judge to explain his policy 36%/14%. preferences, seeing a strong economy—through limited government and Moore Information (R), Feb. 11 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Kobach 26%, fiscal responsibility—as a solution to many of the problems he witnessed Colyer 20%, Ken Selzer 11%, Hartman 6%. Dem. Primary Ballot: Kelly over in court. He believes Tester is too liberal for the state, but that Montanans Jim Saird 39%-20%. Trump ID: 53% approve/45% disapprove. won’t like that Steve Bannon has supported Rosendale. He’s positioning himself as the mainstream Republican candidate who can actually beat Open; Paul LePage (R) term-limited. June 12 primary. the incumbent, but he has to get through a primary of conservative voters MAINE. first. Both parties are headed for competitive primaries, although there is confusion over the state’s instant-runoff voting approved in 2016. Former

InsideElections.com April 6, 2018 5 state Health and Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew and of them will be an underdog against the governor, who has established state University System Trustee Shawn Moody remain in the GOP top an independent brand. Solid R. tier after state Senate President Mike Thibodeau dropped out last week. WBUR/MassINC, March 16-18 (RVs)—General Election Ballots: Baker State House Minority Leader Ken Fredette and state Senate Majority over Gonzalez 60%-21%, Baker over Massie 59%-22%, Baker over Warren Leader Garrett Mason are also running. On the Democratic side, former 58%-24%. IDs: Baker 66% favorable/14% unfavorable, Trump 27%/66%. state House Speaker Mark Eves, state Attorney General (who has been elected by Democratic and Republican legislatures), and MICHIGAN. Open; Rick Snyder (R), term-limited. April 24 businessman Adam Cote (who finished second in the 2008 1st District filing deadline. Aug. 7 primary.Democrats are hoping to regain the Democratic primary) are in the first tier. Trump narrowly lost Maine 48- governorship after eight years of Republican control. Former state 45 percent in 2016, but it’s hard to see Republicans winning in Maine in Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer looks like the Democratic this political environment. That being said, state Treasurer , frontrunner. She has much of the political establishment, including a former Democrat, is running as an Independent and could complicate United Auto Workers, the largest labor union in the state. Wealthy the race, depending on her campaign funding. LePage was first elected businessman Shri Thanedar and former Detroit health director Abdul in 2010 with 38 percent when Independent received 36 El-Sayed are also running in the Democratic primary. State Attorney percent of the vote. Republicans probably need that to happen again. General Bill Schuette and Lt. Gov. Brian Calley are battling for the GOP Lean D. nomination. President Trump is supporting Schuette, while the wealthy governor is supporting Calley as a continuation of his legacy. Michigan MARYLAND. Larry Hogan (R), elected 2014 (51%). June looks like an increasingly competitive state after Trump narrowly won 26 primary. There’s a competitive Democratic primary to face the it in 2016. But Republicans will be hard-pressed to win toss-up states in incumbent GOP governor in a state where Clinton defeated Trump by November. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. 26 points. Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, Baltimore Strategic National (IVR) for Calley, March 19-20 (LVs)—GOP Primary County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, technology executive Alec Ross, Ballots: Schuette 27%, Calley 18%, Colbeck 7%, Hines 3%. IDs: Schuette 57% former NAACP president Ben Jealous, and others are running on the favorable/9% unfavorable, Calley 49%/6%, Colbeck 20%/2%. Democratic side. Some Marketing Research Group, March 13-17 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Democratic strategists Schuette over Calley 29%-13%. Dem. Primary Ballot: Thanedar 21%, Whitmer believe anyone except 18%, El-Sayed 10%. Jealous has a good Target Insyght for MIRS News, March 6-8 (IVR) (LVs)—Democratic chance of knocking Primary Ballot: Whitmer 34%, Thanedar 20%, El Sayed 6%, Cobbs 4%. off Hogan. They EPIC-MRA, Feb. 24-27 (LVs)—IDs: Schuette 24% favorable/19% believe Democratic unfavorable, Whitmer 13%/4%, Thanedar 18%/12%, El-Sayed 7%/7%, Calley turnout will be high in 12%/8%, Colbeck 4%/3%. response to President EPIC-MRA for Thanedar, Feb. 17-22 (RVs)—Dem. Primary Ballot: Trump and that those Whitmer 34%, Thanedar 24%, El-Sayed 8%, Cobbs 3%. IDs: Thanedar 43% Democratic voters Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom favorable/5% unfavorable, Whitmer 39%/4%, El-Sayed 20%/4%, Cobbs Larry Hogan want to vote for a 6%/4%. Democrat even though some of them supported Hogan four years ago. Public Opinion Strategies for Schuette, Feb. 10-13 (GOP Primary Voters)— The governor announced in February that he had overcome cancer GOP Primary Ballot: Schuette 42%, Calley 15%, Colbeck 5%, Hines 2%. for a second time, this time a non-life threatening form of skin cancer. Democrats are determined that this is a real takeover opportunity, but the MINNESOTA. Open; Mark Dayton (DFL) not seeking re- polling hasn’t lined up yet. And Republicans won’t let Hogan go quietly. election. June 5 filing deadline. Aug. 14 primary.Former GOP Gov. Tim The race should become more clear in the middle of the summer after the Pawlenty is back to run for governor again after leaving his job leading Democratic primary. Lean R. the Financial Services Roundtable. His decision gives Republicans a Burton Research and Strategies, March 4-8, 10-11 (RVs)—General Election chance to reclaim the state’s top post after eight years. Meanwhile, Ballot: Hogan over Baker 54%-29%, Hogan over Kamenetz 57%-26%. Rep. Tim Walz, state Auditor Rebecca Otto, and former state House Mason Dixon, Feb. 20-24 (RVs)—Dem. Primary Ballot: Baker 26%, Majority leader/nurse Erin Murphy are running for the DFL nomination. Kamenetz 15%, Jealous 14%, Richard Madaleno 4%, Krishanti Vignarajah The party will meet at the beginning of June to endorse a candidate, 3%, Jim Shea 3%, Ross 2%, Ralph Jaffe 1%. IDs: Baker 34% favorable/9% but candidates who aren’t endorsed can still run in the primary. At a unfavorable, Kamenetz 19%/11%, Jealous 17%/6%, Madaleno 12%/4%. minimum, Pawlenty’s entry will force Democrats to spend more time and money on the race. But the former two-term governor, who won MASSACHUSETTS. Charlie Baker (R), elected 2014 (48%). both races with less than 50 percent (44 percent in 2002 and 47 percent May 8 filing deadline. Sept. 18 primary.In spite of Trump’s 27-point loss in 2006), will have to answer for becoming a lobbyist for the financial in the state in 2016, Baker remains in strong position for re-election this services industry after he left office, and Democrats are anxious to talk year. The Democratic field includes Newton Mayor Setti Warren (who about the economic condition of the state during his time as governor. ran for the Senate in 2012 until dropping out and endorsing Elizabeth Pawlenty will make the case that he never left Minnesota (commuting Warren), former state Finance Secretary Jay Gonzalez, and minister Bob to Washington, D.C.), but his bigger electoral challenge could be the Massie (who has run unsuccessfully for statewide office twice). But any broader political environment shifting away from Republicans. Move

6 April 6, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research from Likely DFL to Lean DFL. The congresswoman has been endorsed by former Sen. Jeff Bingaman Star Tribune, Jan. 8-10 (RVs)—Dem. Primary Ballot: Walz 21%, Lori and received contributions from Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, 2014 Swanson 16%, Chris Coleman 12%, Otto 9%, Murphy 6%, Paul Thissen 4%, gubernatorial nominee Gary King and former Lt. Gov/2010 nominee Tina Liebling 2%. . Rep. Steve Pearce will be the GOP nominee and gives Republicans a NEBRASKA. Pete Ricketts (R), elected 2014 (57%). May 15 credible candidate. primary. Considering the family owns the Cubs, the Ricketts are But the landscape probably spending more time thinking about baseball’s Opening Day, and political climate than the governor’s re-election race. Former state Sen. Bob Krist, a former favor Democrats and Republican, looks like the likely Democratic nominee, but it probably give the party one doesn’t matter. Ricketts should be able to spend his way out of any of their best pickup potential problems. Solid R. opportunities in the JMC, March 4-5 (LVs)—Ricketts Job Rating: 37% approve/40% disapprove. country. Republicans Deserves to be re-elected: Ricketts 39% yes/42% no. recently lost the state Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call Legislature, Clinton NEVADA. Open; (R) term-limited. June 12 primary. carried the state easily, In spite of Harry Reid’s success and presidential victories, Democrats and the state economy has been struggling. Lean D. haven’t won a race for governor in Nevada since 1994. They’re hoping Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Michelle Lujan Grisham, Feb. 14- to break the streak in November. Clark County Commissioners 19 (Democratic Primary LVs)—Dem. Primary Ballot: Lujan Grisham 72%, and Chris Giunchigliani are the top contenders for the Apodaca 13%, Cervantes 6%, Peter DeBenedittis 2%. IDs: Grisham 70% Democratic nomination. Sisolak has plenty of personal money to invest favorable/14% unfavorable, Apodaca 21%/14%, Cervantes 15%/11%. in the race. State Attorney General Adam Laxalt (grandson of former Sen. ) is the GOP frontrunner but faces state Treasurer Dan NEW YORK. Andrew Cuomo (D) elected 2010 (63%), 2014 (54%). Schwartz and others in the primary. It’s unclear whether Schwartz will Actress Cynthia Nixon brought attention to an otherwise sleepy race raise the money to compete with Laxalt, who has support from wealthy with her primary challenge to Cuomo. There is some Democratic conservative casino magnate Sheldon Adelstein. Sandoval has been a discontent with the governor but it will be at least a few weeks before it’s popular governor, but he’s been at odds with Laxalt on some issues. clear whether Nixon can get the statewide traction to make it a real race. Nevada is a target-rich state for Democrats with this gubernatorial race Law professor Zephyr Teachout challenged the governor in the 2014 and challenging GOP Sen. . It’s hard to give Republicans primary and lost 63-33 percent. It would be a stunning upset for Nixon an even chance in a state Clinton won by a couple of points when the considering Andrew’s father Mario was governor for three terms from environment has improved for Democrats. Move from Toss-up to Tilt 1983 to 1994 and a Cuomo has been governor of New York for nearly Democratic. 20 out of the last 38 years. There’s little evidence John DeFrancisco, Dutchess County Executive Marcus Molinaro, or any other Republican, NEW HAMPSHIRE. Chris Sununu (R) elected 2016 (49%). will make this a race in November. Solid D. June 15 filing deadline. Sept. 11 primary.The Granite State’s two-year Siena College, March 11-16 (RVs)—General Election Ballot: Cuomo over terms make it difficult to topple a first-term governor. But Sununu’s DeFrancisco 57%-28%, Cuomo over Molinaro 57%-29%. Democratic Primary biggest threat could be New Hampshire’s history of swinging wildly Ballot: Cuomo over Nixon 66%-19%. GOP Primary Ballot: DeFrancisco over with the national political winds, which are blowing in Democrats’ Molinaro 21%-17%. IDs: Cuomo 52% favorable/40% unfavorable, Nixon direction this year. Former executive councilor Colin Van Ostern, the 20%/19%. Deserves re-election: Cuomo re-elect 48%/someone else 46%. 2016 Democratic nominee, announced in February that he wouldn’t seek a rematch, but former Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand is OHIO. Open; John Kasich (R) term-limited. May 8 primary. running (as he does frequently, after a 2016 run for governor and Crowded candidate fields on both sides of the aisle have narrowed 2008 run for Senate) along with former state Sen. Molly Kelly. The over the last few months. Former U.S. Senator/state Attorney General Democratic field could still grow. This will be a late-breaking race, if it Mike DeWine is the GOP frontrunner and now counts Ohio Secretary develops at all. Lean R. of State/former candidate Jon Husted as his running mate. Rep. Jim Target Point (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D), March 8-15 (RVs)— Renacci switched to the U.S. Senate race. Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor is still Dem. Primary Ballot: Kelly 17%, Marchand 11%, Mark Connolly 9%. Sununu running but will have a hard time competing with DeWine’s money and Job Rating: 63% approve/22% disapprove. establishment support. On the Democratic side, former state Attorney General/former state Treasurer/former Consumer Financial Protection NEW MEXICO. Open; (R) term-limited. Bureau director Director Richard Cordray is the frontrunner and has June 5 primary. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham is the frontrunner for former candidate/former Rep. Betty Sutton as a running mate. But the Democratic nomination but faces state Sen. Joe Cervantes and former Rep. Dennis Kucinich is running as well and shouldn’t be ignored former Univision executive Jeff Apodaca (whose father Jerry served after being a political figure in the state for decades, and state Senate one term as governor in the late 1970s) in the primary. Cervantes must Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni and others are running in the primary petition onto the ballot after receiving just 10 percent of delegates at the as well. Democrats are excited to attack DeWine as a lifelong politician. March nominating convention (Lujan Grisham received 67 percent). Republicans are excited to attack Cordray as a lifelong politician who

InsideElections.com April 6, 2018 7 spent six years in Washington as a bureaucrat. This race is going to get Attorney General Drew Edmondson (who lost in the 2010 primary) is ugly and expensive. The Buckeye State took a sharp turn in 2016 with a the Democratic frontrunner but faces former state Sen. Connie Johnson 52-44 victory for Trump. Tilt R. in the primary. In 2016, Edmondson was the public face of opposition to SurveyUSA Election Poll, March 16-20 (LVs)—General Election Ballot: the Right to Farm bill that failed to pass. Democrats are hoping to run DeWine over Cordray 47%-39%, DeWine over Kucinich 51%-38%. GOP against Lamb because he is more easily connected to Fallin. Republicans Primary Ballot: DeWine over Taylor 50%-18%. Dem. Primary Ballot: Kucinich will use traditional attacks against Edmondson on taxes and abortion. 21%, Cordray 21%, Bill O’Neill 4% Paul Ray 2%, Joe Schiavoni 5%. Solid R for now. TRZ Communications for We The People Convention, Inc, Feb. 17 (GOP Strategic Solutions for Richardson, March 9 (GOP LVs)—GOP RVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: DeWine over Mary Taylor 35%-16%. Primary Ballot: Cornett 15%, Lamb 12%, Richardson 5%, Jones 3%, Fisher 2%, Stitt 1%. Fallin Job Rating: 22% approve/52% disapprove. OKLAHOMA. Open; Mary Fallin (R) term-limited. April 13 filing deadline. June 26 primary.Clinton fell short of 30 percent in OREGON. Kate Brown (D) assumed office 2015, elected 2016 2016 but some Democrats are feeling emboldened by the open seat as special (51%). May 15 primary. Brown won election in her own right last the outgoing governor’s job approval ratings have slipped. Lt. Gov. cycle after assuming office in the wake of the criminal investigation of Todd Lamb is the GOP frontrunner but Mayor Mick Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber for public corruption and his subsequent Cornett, state Auditor Gary Jones, wealthy Tulsa businessman Kevin resignation. A Republican hasn’t won a gubernatorial election in Oregon Stitt, and former U.S. Attorney Gary Richardson are running as well. since Vic Atiyeh was re-elected in 1982. Clinton underperformed in a In 2002, Richardson’s independent bid for governor helped Democrat handful of key states, but she still won Oregon by 11 points, 50-39 percent, upset GOP congressman/retired Seattle Seahawks legend so any Republican will be an underdog. State Rep. Knute Buehler is the in one of the biggest surprises of that decade. Former state likely GOP nominee but took some heat for skipping candidate forums and lost a straw poll to retired Navy pilot Greg Wooldridge at the Dorchester Conference, the annual gathering of GOP activists. Buehler has the backing and financial muscle of Nike founder Phil Knight behind him. Candidate Conversation Brown defeated Buehler 51-43 percent in the 2012 secretary of state race, but underperformed Barack Obama by 3 points. Likely D. Cort VanOstran (D) Missouri’s 2nd District - PENNSYLVANIA. Tom Wolf (D) elected 2014 (55%). May 15 Rating: Solid R primary. State Sen. Scott Wagner and wealthy businessman Paul Mango are fighting for the GOP nomination, but either one will start as an Interview Date: Feb. 28, 2018 underdog against the wealthy governor, who is already on television Date of Birth: Sept. 14, 1988; with campaign ads. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but it won’t be Joplin, Mo. easy to knock off Wolf. Lean D. Education: Harvard (2011); Franklin and Marshall College, March 19-26 (mixed mode)(RVs)—General Washington Univ. School of Election Ballots: Wolf over Mango 49%-22%, Wolf over Wagner 38%-21%.

Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call Law in St. Louis IDs: Wolf 50% favorable/32% unfavorable. Elected Office:None; First run for office Revily, Inc for American Principles Project, March 13-15 (mixed IVR) (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Wagner 20%, Mango 18%, Ellsworth 4%. Wolf Current Outlook: Donald Trump carried this St. Louis-area district with Job Rating: 22% approve/69% disapprove. IDs: Mango 28% favorable/11% 53 percent. And Rep. Ann Wagner’s decision to run for re-election instead of challenging Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill improved GOP chances unfavorable, Wagner 30%/13%. of holding the seat. But VanOstran is a credible candidate and hopes to capitalize on the fact that the congresswoman hasn’t had a well-funded RHODE ISLAND. (D) elected 2014 (41%). Democratic opponent before, and he believes McCaskill’s re-election June 27 filing deadline. September 11 primary.The governor’s campaign could drive out Democratic voters. slumping job approval rating is fueling Republican optimism, Evaluation: VanOstran grew up in rural, southwest Missouri, on the even in a state Clinton won by 15 points. And some Democratic other side of the state from the 2nd District. He clerked for two federal strategists admit she still has to remind voters about her first-term judges out of law school, and then lectured at Washington Univ. before accomplishments. Raimondo’s winning percentage in 2014 was practicing at a small law firm in class action lawsuits. With $240,000 in low thanks to a Moderate Party candidate receiving 21 percent. the bank on Dec. 31, VanOstran is confident he’ll be the best-funded Independent Matt Brown’s candidacy could complicate her re-election Democrat in the race, and is already focusing his campaign on a general this year. He’s a former Democrat who defeated an incumbent election message against Wagner. Raised by a single mom who died of secretary of state in a Democratic primary in 2002 and ran briefly breast cancer, VanOstran decided to run after Wagner voted to repeal for the U.S. Senate in 2006. Meanwhile, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung the Affordable Care Act, which provided his mother’s insurance. He and state House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan are vying for the knows that this seat isn’t a top-tier race, but believes this is the type of GOP nomination. Either would start as the underdog in the general seat that Democrats could win in a wave, and McCaskill carried the election, but Republicans are looking for a Paul LePage-type victory 2nd District in 2012. Wagner had $3.2 million in the bank at the end of the year. where Brown attracts enough disaffected Democrats to allow the GOP nominee to win with a plurality. LePage received 38 percent in his 2010

8 April 6, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research victory. Fung received 36 percent in 2014. Trump received 39 percent businessman/rancher Bill Lee are in the GOP race as well. Democrats in 2016. But former state Rep. Joe Trillo (Trump’s state chairman) is are hoping that the strength of Bredesen at the top of the ticket and running as an independent and could complicate GOP efforts. It’s still Dean’s unique appeal creates an opportunity in a state where Trump tough to see Republicans pulling this off but Raimondo’s weakness won by 26 points. Likely R. can’t be ignored. Move from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic. TargetPoint and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Save the Children, March WPRI-12/Roger Williams University, Feb. 25-28 (RVs)—General Election 7-14 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Black 25%, Boyd 20%, Lee 7%, Harwell 6%, Ballots: Raimondo 43%, Morgan 25%, Trillo 9%; Raimondo 38%, Fung 36%, Kay White 2%. Dem. Primary Ballot: Dean over Fitzhugh 41%-11%. Trillo 6%. IDs: Trump 35% favorable/64% unfavorable, Fung 49%/26%, Whit Ayres of North Star Opinion Research, Feb. 5-11 (Likely Republican Raimondo 50%/46%, Morgan 18%/13%, Trillo 11%/23%. (Link) Primary Voters)—GOP Primary Ballot: Boyd 25%, Black 22%, Lee 18%, Harwell 4%. IDs: Black 42% favorable/19% unfavorable, Boyd 38%/5%, SOUTH CAROLINA. Henry McMaster (R) assumed office Jan. Harwell 27%/9%, Lee 27%/5%. 2017. June 12 primary. June 26 primary runoff.McMaster, an ardent Triton Polling for Tennessee Star, Jan. 21-24 (IVR)(LVs)—General Election Trump supporter, was the lieutenant governor but ascended to the post Ballots: Black over Dean 46%-35%, Boyd over Dean 43%-34%, Harwell over after Gov. Nikki Haley was confirmed to be U.S. Ambassador to the Dean 43%-33%, Lee over Dean 38%-34%, Beavers over Dean 35.9%-35.7%. United Nations. The governor faces a handful of primary challengers but the most serious is former state cabinet member Catherine Templeton. He’s still favored to win. Afghan war veteran/state Rep. James Smith is the Democratic frontrunner, but long-time Democratic consultant 2018 Senate Ratings 2018 Senate Ratings Phil Noble is hoping for an upset in a late-breaking race. Trump won Toss-Up Toss-Up the Palmetto State by 14 points but Democrats believe he can still be a Donnelly (D-Ind.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) liability for McMaster, and they plan to unload other opposition research Donnelly (D-Ind.) Manchin (D-W.Va.) Manchin (D-W.Va.) Heller (R-Nev.) and try to follow Roy Cooper’s path to victory in North Carolina. Heitkamp (D-N.D.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Heitkamp (D-N.D.) AZ Open (Flake, R) Republicans will attack Smith as a typical liberal Democrat. There is still Heller (R-Nev.)# a scenario for Democrats to win. Solid R. Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican Target Point and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, March 10-17 (RVs)—GOP Baldwin (D-Wis.) Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican Primary Ballot: McMaster 41%, Templeton 10%, Kevin Bryant 5%, Yancey Nelson (D-Fla.) Baldwin (D-Wis.) McGill 3%, John Warren 2%. Dem. Primary Ballot: Smith 18%, Marguerite Tester (D-Mont.) Nelson (D-Fla.) Willis 11%, Noble 7%. Tester (D-Mont.) Mason Dixon, Dec. 6-10 (RVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: McMaster 51%, Lean Democratic Lean Republican Templeton 21%, Bryant 8%, McGill 1%. IDs: McMaster 46% favorable/7% Brown (D-Ohio) Lean Democratic Lean Republican unfavorable, Templeton 23%/2%. Casey (D-Pa.) Brown (D-Ohio) Flake (R-Ariz.)#

Likely Democratic Likely Republican Casey (D-Pa.) SOUTH DAKOTA. Open; Dennis Daugaard (R) term-limited. March 28 filing deadline. June 5 primary. Rep. Kristi Noem and state Smith (D-Minn.) TN Open (Corker, R) Likely Democratic Likely Republican Attorney General Marty Jackley are locked in a competitive primary Solid Democratic Solid Republican Kaine (D-Va.) for the GOP nomination, and either would start the general election as Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) the favorite in a state where Clinton failed to reach 32 percent in 2016. Solid Democratic Solid Republican Cardin (D-Md.) Cruz (R-Texas) Democrats are intrigued by their candidate, state Senate Minority Leader Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) Billie Sutton, who was paralyzed in a rodeo accident about 10 years Carper (D-Del.) Fischer (R-Neb.) Cardin (D-Md.) Corker (R-Tenn.) Feinstein (D-Calif.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) ago. Democrats would rather run against a Member of Congress in the Carper (D-Del.) Cruz (R-Texas) general election. Democrats haven’t won a gubernatorial race in South Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) Wicker (R-Miss.) Feinstein (D-Calif.) Fischer (R-Neb.) Dakota since was president. Solid R. Heinrich (D-N.M.) UT Open (Hatch, R) Gillibrand (D- N.Y.) Hatch (R-Utah) Moore Information, Feb. 8 (LVs)—GOP Primary Ballot: Noem 40%, Jackley Hirono (D-Hawaii) Heinrich (D-N.M.) Strange (R-Ala.) 35%, Lora Hubbel 5%, Terry La Fleur 2%. Kaine (D-Va.) King (I-Maine) Hirono (D-Hawaii) Wicker (R-Miss.) TENNESSEE. Open; Bill Haslam (R) term-limited. April 5 Klobuchar (D-Minn.) King (I- Maine) filing deadline. Aug. 2 primary.Democrats’ last governor, Phil Klobuchar (D-Minn.) Bredesen, is running for GOP Sen. Bob Corker’s open seat, while his Menendez (D-N.J.) party is trying to recapture the governorship after eight years. Former Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM Menendez (D-N.J.) Nashville Mayor Karl Dean is the Democratic frontrunner and has Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress 51 49 Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM cultivated a nonpartisan image. But he must get past state House Stabenow (D-Mich.) Not up this cycle 42 23 Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress 52 48 Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh (who has some personal money) in Warren (D-Mass.) Currently Solid 6 15 Stabenow (D-Mich.) Not up this cycle 43 23 the primary. Republicans have a crowded and competitive primary Whitehouse (D-R.I.) Competitive 3 11 Warren (D-Mass.) Currently Solid 7 15 of their own. Rep. Diane Black and wealthy former state economic Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Whitehouse (D-R.I.) Competitive 2 10 development commissioner Randy Boyd look like the frontrunners, but Republicans former state Sen. Mae Beavers, state House Speaker Beth Harwell and Takeovers in Italics # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans

InsideElections.com April 6, 2018 9 TEXAS. Greg Abbott (R) elected 2014 (59%). May 22 runoff.The likely lose to the governor, even though Trump received just 30 percent governor won renomination easily with 90 percent in the March 6 primary. in 2016. But Scott, a former stock car driver, has a unique and personal Former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez and Andrew White, son of relationship with voters in the small state. Democrats might struggle to former Democratic Gov. Mark White (1983-1987), will face off in the May come up with a fireable offense for Scott, who has been in office a little 22 Democratic primary runoff. Nearly 500,000 more people voted in more than a year. Solid R. the initial Republican primary compared to the Democratic primary. If Democrats are going to win statewide in Texas this year, it’s more likely to . Scott Walker (R), elected 2010 (52%), June 2012 be Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s challenge to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. Abbott has over recall (53%), 2014 (52%). June 1 filing deadline. Aug. 14 primary. $40 million in campaign funds, will win re-election, and likely be in the Republicans are awfully confident in Walker’s political acumen 2020 presidential discussion if Trump doesn’t seek a second term. Solid R. considering he’s already won three gubernatorial races. But that doesn’t mean the governor is unbeatable this year. First, Democrats must VERMONT. Phil Scott (R) elected 2016 (53%). May 31 filing navigate a crowded primary between state Superintendent of Public deadline. Aug. 14 primary. Democrats will have a candidate who will Instruction , state Rep. , Fire Fighters Union State President , businessman Andy Gronik, state Sen. and a dozen others. With a mid-August primary, Candidate Conversation Democrats will need to unite quickly and focus on Walker as he seeks a third term. Republicans believe the governor’s standing has improved Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) since his failed run for president, but while his approval rating hovers near 50 percent, so does his disapproval and unfavorable rating. Walker’s California’s 50th District - endorsed candidate for the state supreme court lost a special election on Rating: Likely R Tuesday. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Interview Date: March 27, 2018 Marquette Law School Poll, Feb. 25-March 1 (RVs)—Dem. Primary Ballot: Date of Birth: Feb. 24, 1989; Evers 18%, 9%, 7%, Mike McCabe 6%, Vinehout 5%, San Diego, Calif. Mitchell 4%, Dana Wachs 4%, Gronik 3%. IDs: Walker 48% favorable/48% unfavorable, Evers 20%/13%, Flynn 13%/8%, Soglin 15%/13%, Vinehout Education: San Diego State 12%/9%. Walker Job Rating: 47% approve/47% disapprove. Univ. (2012) PPP, Jan. 8-10 (IVR)(Likely Dem. Primary Voters))—Dem. Primary Ballot: Elected Office: None; First run Evers 29%, Vinehout 11%, Soglin 10%, Flynn 5%, Mitchell 5%, Wachs Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call for office 4%, McCabe 5%, 2%, Gronik 2%. IDs: Evers 60% favorable/9% Current Outlook: Campa-Najjar hopes to unseat GOP Rep. Duncan unfavorable Soglin 35%/12%, Mitchell 21%/8%, Roys 13%/8%. Hunter, who is under investigation for allegedly misusing campaign funds. President Donald Trump won the San Diego County district 55- . Open; Matt Mead (R) term-limited. June 1 filing 40 percent, but Hunter’s problems have created a unique opportunity. deadline. Aug. 21 primary. It’s almost hard to believe Wyoming elected Democrats in Washington have been more excited about Navy Seal Josh a Democratic governor in 2006 considering there is very little chance Butner in a district that includes Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton. that happens again this year, even in a potential Democratic wave. State But Campa-Najjar, who would be the first Latino-Arab congressman, Treasurer is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination believes his profile better fits the district and there’s only room for one of and to be the next governor after former Rep. and them in the general election from the June 5 primary. On Dec. 31, Campa- Najjar had $299,000 cash-on-hand compared to $277,000 for Butner. The Wyoming Secretary of State Ed Murray declined to run. On the Democratic nomination is important if Hunter’s legal problems escalate. Democratic side, former House Minority Leader Mary Throne looks like the frontrunner, but she’ll likely struggle in a state where Clinton Evaluation: Campa-Najjar might be easy to dismiss because he’s young fell short of 22 percent and no Democrat has received over 39 percent and some of his web videos question his level of seriousness. But he has statewide going back to at least 2010. Solid R. kept pace with his Democratic opponents in fundraising and has been endorsed by Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez and Adriano Espaillat of New York, and the California Democratic Party. Campa-Najjar’s path to the campaign trail is interesting considering he was born in San Diego, went to Gaza with his family in 1997, but came back to the area, where he CALENDAR finished high school. He’s hoping his profile will resonate with growing minority populations, working-class voters (he worked as a janitor as a April 9 North Dakota Filing Deadline teenager) as well as veterans, considering Campa-Najjar witnessed war April 12 New York Filing Deadline in the Middle East. But he also must be careful not to inflate his resume. April 13 Oklahoma Filing Deadline He was a White House intern in the Obama administration who went April 24 Arizona’s 8th District Special Election, Michigan Filing Deadline on to work as a public affairs officer at the Department of Labor and also started a small business (which has been criticized by his opponents by May 4 Florida Filing Deadline challenging his ballot designation). Campa-Najjar doesn’t fit the mold of May 8 North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia Primaries most congressional candidates and it’s still a Republican-leaning district May 15 Oregon, Pennsylvania, Nebraska and Idaho Primaries but Hunter might be finding a way to give this seat away to Democrats. April 9 - North Dakota Filing Deadline May 18 Washington Filing Deadline April 12 - New York Filing Deadline April 13 - Oklahoma Filing Deadline 10 AprilApril 6, 201824 - Michigan Filing Deadline Nonpartisan Analysis & Research Florida - May 4 Filing Deadline

CALENDAR March 12 Montana Filing Deadline March 13 Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Election March 16 Iowa and Nevada Filing Deadlines March 20 Colorado Filing Deadline March 27 Missouri and South Dakota Filing Deadlines March 30 South Carolina Filing Deadlines