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Modelling and Forward Projection of Nile Perch, Lates Niloticus, Stock in Lake Victoria Using GADGET Framework

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Modelling and Forward Projection of Nile Perch, Lates Niloticus, Stock in Lake Victoria Using GADGET Framework unuftp.is Final Project 2012 MODELLING AND FORWARD PROJECTIONS OF NILE PERCH, Lates niloticus, STOCK IN LAKE VICTORIA USING GADGET FRAMEWORK Chrispine Sangara Nyamweya Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute,P.O. Box 1881-40100, Nkrumah Road Kisumu,Kenya [email protected] Supervisor: Gudmundur Thordarson Marine Research Institute Reykjavik, Iceland [email protected] ABSTRACT A Globally applicable Area Disaggregated Ecosystem Toolbox (Gadget) was used to generate population and stock assessment models for Nile perch, Lates niloticus in Lake Victoria. Two model runs were conducted. Growth parameters generated from the first run L∞ = 255 cm, K = 0.069, t0 = -0.25 and L∞ = 198 cm, K = 0.1, t0 = 0.8 for the commercial and survey fleets respectively, fitted well with data. These parameters were there fore fixed in the final model run. Sizes at 50% maturity (Lm50) were 61.34 and 70.37 cm while the adult sex ratio was 2:1 for males and females respectively. Model fit to length disaggregated, CPUE and acoustic survey indices showed strong positive correlation. Two selection patterns were evident in the commercial fleet in the periods prior and after 2002 with the latter exhibiting higher mean length. Population estimates show a biomass that decreased sharply in the late 1980s with rapid increase in fishing mortality. Cathes on the other hand increased exponentially from 1968 and then levelled off after 1990. The current fishing mortality of 0.53 gives a per recruit yield of 1.38 kg, which is lower than it could have been at Fmax = 0.33 that results in 1.45 kg. The current fishing mortality is almost double the optimum. The estimated yield at F0.1 = 0.21 is 1.37 kg. Forward prediction based on different exploitation strategies show that the current fishing mortality or any increase in the same will lead to decline in biomass and catches in the long run. A fishing mortality Fmax that optimizes yield with significantly less effort is therefore recommended for the species in Lake Victoria. This paper should be cited as: Nyamweya. C.S. 2013. Modelling and forward projection of Nile perch, Lates niloticus, stock in Lake Victoria using GADGET framework. United Nations University Fisheries Training Programme, Iceland [final project]. http://www.unuftp.is/static/fellows/document/chrisphin12prf.pdf Nyamweya TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. 5 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 6 1.1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................... 6 1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM........................................................................................ 6 1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ......................................................................................... 7 1.4 SCOPE OF THE STUDY ..................................................................................................... 7 1.5 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ........................................................................................... 7 1.5.1 Specific objectives .................................................................................................. 7 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................. 8 2.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 8 2.2 BIOLOGY AND ECOLOGY ................................................................................................ 8 2.3 NILE PERCH FISHERY...................................................................................................... 9 2.4 NILE PERCH SLOT SIZE ................................................................................................. 10 2.5 STOCK ASSESSMENT IN LAKE VICTORIA ...................................................................... 10 2.6 GADGET ....................................................................................................................... 10 2.6.1 Arrangement of a Gadget run .............................................................................. 11 2.6.2 Growth .................................................................................................................. 11 2.6.3 Fleets .................................................................................................................... 12 2.6.4 Likelihood Data .................................................................................................... 13 2.6.5 Optimization ......................................................................................................... 13 2.6.6 Likelihood weighting ............................................................................................ 14 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS .................................................................................... 15 3.1 STUDY AREA ................................................................................................................ 15 3.2 DATA AND FILE ARRANGEMENT IN GADGET ................................................................ 16 3.3 GADGET INPUT DATA ................................................................................................... 16 3.3.1 Commercial catches data ..................................................................................... 16 3.3.2 Survey data ........................................................................................................... 18 3.4 MODEL ASSUMPTIONS.................................................................................................. 18 3.5 MODEL SETTINGS ......................................................................................................... 19 3.5.1 Aggregation of data .............................................................................................. 19 3.5.2 Growth .................................................................................................................. 21 3.5.3 Natural mortality .................................................................................................. 21 3.5.4 Recruitment .......................................................................................................... 21 3.5.5 Fleets and selection .............................................................................................. 21 3.6 OBJECTIVE FUNCTION .................................................................................................. 22 3.6.1 Weights on likehood components ......................................................................... 22 3.7 MATURITY ESTIMATES ................................................................................................. 23 UNU – Fisheries Training Programme 2 Nyamweya 3.8 YIELD AND SPAWNING BIOMASS PER RECRUIT ............................................................. 23 4 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 24 4.1 GADGET FIT TO DATA ................................................................................................... 24 4.1.1 Commercial catches ............................................................................................. 26 4.1.2 Surveys ................................................................................................................. 26 4.2 ESTIMATES .................................................................................................................. 26 4.2.1 Selectivity ............................................................................................................. 26 4.2.2 Maturity estimates ................................................................................................ 28 4.2.3 Population ............................................................................................................ 28 4.2.4 Yield and spawning biomass per recruit .............................................................. 30 4.2.1 Forward projections ............................................................................................. 30 5 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................... 33 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................ 35 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ..................................................................................................... 36 LIST OF REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 37 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................ 41 UNU – Fisheries Training Programme 3 Nyamweya LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Commercial catches in tonnes in three-month steps and years. ................................ 17 Table 2. Number of commercial length measurements in quarterly three-month steps used as input data into the Gadget model. ............................................................................................ 18 Table 3. Number of fish in the different length groups from the August 2005-2011 trawl surveys
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