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South African Renewable Energy Market and Opportunity for Swiss Companies

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South African Renewable Energy Market and Opportunity for Swiss Companies Market and Opportunity for Swiss Companies SOUTH AFRICAN RENEWABLE ENERGY OFFICIAL PROGRAM SOUTH AFRICAN RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET AND OPPORTUNITY FOR SWISS COMPANIES Date: September 2015 Language: English Number of pages: 76 Author: Swiss Business Hub Southern Africa (SBHSA) and SUDEO International Business Consultants Other sectorial Reports: Are you interested in other Reports for other sectors and countries? Please find more Reports here: s-ge.com/reports Strictly Confidential for use by SBHSA This Project Report is the Property of: The Swiss Business Hub Southern Africa (SBHSA) and SUDEO International Business Consultants Unauthorised circulation, distribution, reproduction, presentation and modification of the content presented in this Project Report is prohibited, unless under written consent from SBHSA and/or SUDEO International Business Consultants DISCLAIMER This Project Report has been prepared using market, network referenced and proprietary information of The Swiss Business Hub Southern Africa (SBHSA) and SUDEO International Business Consultants. The SBHSA and SUDEO International Business Consultants will not be liable for any damage, including lost profits, lost savings, lost retained earnings or any other incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the information and will not be liable or held responsible for the content and/or any subsequent changes and/or market developments which may present influential material and substantive changes to the content and potential market and business opportunities contained in this Draft Final Project Report. By using the information contained in this Draft Final Project report, you explicitly agree that the exclusions and limitations of liability set out in this disclaimer are fully understood and are reasonable. If you do not think that the exclusions and limitations of this disclaimer are reasonable, you must not use any of the information contained in this Draft Final Project Report. Contents 7.1. Subsector Overview ____________________ 63 FOREWORD __________________________________ 9 7.2. Potential Business Opportunities ___________ 67 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY _________________ 10 8. SA RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ENTRY 2. INTRODUCTION _______________________ 17 MODES ______________________________ 69 8.1. Market Entry Modes to access Supply Opportunities69 3. BACKGROUND ________________________ 20 8.2. Market Entry Modes to access Investment 3.1. Renewable Energy in the global context ______ 20 Opportunities ________________________ 70 3.2. The Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) (up-to 2050) _ 24 3.3. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for Electricity 9. PROFESSIONAL SA RE MARKET (2010-2030) _________________________ 30 PENETRATION SUPPORT PACKAGES ____ 71 3.4. Supply Side Initiative - Renewable Energy 9.1. Detailed Market Study ___________________ 71 Independent Power Producer Procurement 9.2. Identification of aligned Business Partners _____ 71 Programme (REIPPPP) _________________ 31 9.3. Business Interaction Support ______________ 71 3.5. Supply Side Initiative - Small Projects IPP 9.4. Business Development Support _____________ 71 Procurement Programme (SPIPPPP) ________ 33 10. CONCLUSION _________________________ 72 3.6. Renewable Energy Demand Side Initiatives ____ 35 REFERENCES _______________________________ 73 4. PHOTOVOLTAIC SUBSECTOR ___________ 37 4.1. Subsector Overview ____________________ 37 4.2. Potential Business Opportunities ___________ 45 5. CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER SUBSECTOR __________________________ 47 5.1. Subsector Overview ____________________ 47 5.2. Potential Business Opportunities ___________ 51 6. ONSHORE WIND SUBSECTOR ___________ 54 6.1. Subsector Overview ____________________ 54 6.2. Potential Business Opportunities ___________ 59 7. SMALL HYDRO SUBSECTOR ____________ 63 List of tables and figures Table 1: Global Renewable Energy technology power capacity (2013) ............................................................................................. 21 Table 2: IEP target test cases ............................................................................................................................................................. 28 Table 3: REIPPPP Allocations (2011-2013) ...................................................................................................................................... 33 Table 4: REIPPP Bid Window Three Foreign Investment ............................................................................................................... 33 Table 5: Annual incoming shortwave radiation .................................................................................................................................37 Table 6: South African PV market segment characteristics and dynamics ..................................................................................... 38 Table 7: Scenarios of Projected South Africa PV Market Growth (2030 and 2050) ....................................................................... 39 Table 8: Solar Photovoltaic REIPPPP Allocations ............................................................................................................................ 40 Table 9: Solar Photovoltaic REIPPPP Preferred Bidders Salient Terms ......................................................................................... 40 Table 10: Solar Photovoltaic REIPPPP Preferred Bidders Economic Development ........................................................................ 41 Table 11: REIPPPP PV projects awarded ........................................................................................................................................... 42 Table 12: Known Commercial and Industrial Projects Built in 2010, 2011 and 2012 ..................................................................... 44 Table 13: Annual incoming shortwave radiation .............................................................................................................................. 47 Table 14: Concentrated Solar Power REIPPPP Allocations ............................................................................................................. 49 Table 15: Concentrated Solar Power REIPPPP Preferred Bidders Salient Terms ........................................................................... 49 Table 16: Concentrated Solar Power REIPPPP Preferred Bidders Economic Development .......................................................... 50 Table 17: REIPPPP CSP projects awarded ........................................................................................................................................ 50 Table 18: Onshore Wind REIPPPP Allocations ................................................................................................................................ 56 Table 19: Onshore Wind Preferred Bidders Salient Terms ............................................................................................................... 57 Table 20: Onshore Wind REIPPPP Preferred Bidders Economic Development ............................................................................. 57 Table 21: REIPPPP Onshore Wind projects awarded ....................................................................................................................... 58 Table 22: Small Hydro REIPPPP Allocations ................................................................................................................................... 65 Table 23: Small Hydro Preferred Bidders Salient Terms ................................................................................................................. 65 Table 24: Small Hydro REIPPPP Preferred Bidders Economic Development ................................................................................ 66 Table 25: REIPPPP Small Hydro projects awarded .......................................................................................................................... 66 Figure 1: Tracking Carbon Emissions Globally .................................................................................................................................. 18 Figure 2: Estimated Renewable Energy share of global electricity production (End 2013) ........................................................... 20 Figure 3: Global Renewable Energy technology power capacity (GW) (2013) ................................................................................ 22 Figure 4: Solar PV Total Global Capacity (2004-2013) .................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 5: Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Capacity, by region (2004-2013) ........................................................................... 23 Figure 6: Wind Power Total World Capacity (2000-2013) .............................................................................................................. 23 Figure 7: IEP Final Energy Demand (2010-2050)............................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 8: IEP Final Energy Demand by Energy Carrier (2010-2050) ............................................................................................. 26 Figure 9: IEP Electricity Generation Capacity by Technology Type (2050) .................................................................................... 29 Figure 10: IRP New Build and Committed Electricity Generation Options (2010-2030)
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