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Emaar Properties (PJSC) Initiating Coverage UAE Real Estate 23 Sep

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Emaar Properties (PJSC) Initiating Coverage UAE Real Estate 23 Sep Emaar Initiating Properties (PJSC ) Coverage UAE 23 Sep 2012 Real Estate Price Target We initiate coverag e of EMAAR PROPERTIES, the largest real estate developer in Current Mkt.Price (AED) 3.58 GCC with a BUY rating and target price of AED 4.15 per share. The recent uptick in Target Price (AED) 4.1 5 investor sentiment towards Dubai real estate combined with Emaar’s traction in de- Upside / (Downside), % +15.9 risking its revenue sources from purely property development to mix of recurring revenue stream is in our opinion strong positives to narrowing the gap between Est. Dividend Yield, % +2.8 Emaar’s current market value and its estimated fair value Est. Total Return, % +18.7 Stock Information Dubai Real Estate Stabilizing DFM Code EMAAR Property and rentals in Dubai seem to have bottomed out since Q4’2011. Significant Bloomberg Code EMAAR DH Equity correction in prices since Q1’2009 has set a stage of attractive rental yields compared 3-M Avg. daily volume (‘000s)) 14,204 to other cosmopolitan cities in the region. Emaar remains the torch bearer of Dubai Shares outstanding (millions) 6,091 Real Estate and in many ways emblematic of what brand ‘Dubai’ stands for Market Cap. (AED millions) 21, 623 Emaar de-risking strategy is gaining traction 52W High (AED) 3.63 (19Sep 12) Emaar’s portfolio of recurring revenue assets now contributes roughly 40% of top-line 52W Low (AED) 2.33 (15Jan12) revenues compared to c.10% in 2008. Rental and Hospitality segment provide Price Performance revenue visibility; impart balance sheet liquidity and reduce overall business risk. 1M YTD 12M International operations provide medium term growth pipeline EMAAR 8.2% 43.7% 33% DFM General Index 3.7% 18.6% 11.0% Retail/Leasing portfolio is a high quality hard to replicate asset Key Valuations Metrics Retail segment provides good cash-flow visibility, low maintenance costs. Its prized location and brand equity contribute in terms of higher rental yield and low vacancy TTM P/E 12 Forward P/E 11 rates. Free cash from the segment remains a significant internal source of liquidity for P/B 0.67 Forward P/B 0.64 financing growth capex in Property and Hospitality segment Div. Yield, % c.3.0% Fwd. Div. Yield, % c.2.8% Relative Price Performance Combination of favorable macro tailwind in terms of reemergence of Dubai’s real 150 estate and micro factors in terms of Emaar’s traction in transforming its business 130 model from one reliant on Dubai real estate to more diversified revenue streams 110 will help stock price. 90 In our opinion the favorable stock outlook in terms of improving business 70 fundamentals and recent upbeat investor appetite for risk assets (after the FED Emaar DFM Realty Index DFM Main index 50 announcing third around of ‘Quantitative easing’) should support multiple expansion, Sep -11 Dec -11 Mar -12 Jun -12 Sep -12 especially, the gap between the current market price and the discount to Emaar’s Current Shareholding adjusted net asset value —we initiate with a BUY rating Govt. Of Dubai —c.31% Free Float —c.69% RESEARCH ANALYST Analyst: : Siraj S. Presswala Email : [email protected] VISION INVESTMENT SERVICES CO. (S.A.O.C.) INITIATING COVERAGE: EMAAR PROPERTIES Page 1 of 20 Investment Thesis Dubai Real Estate Stabilizing Recent spate of news on Dubai real estate, makes us believe that property and Prices are competitively positioned rentals in Dubai seem to have largely bottomed out somewhere in Q4’2011. Since compared to other Asian property hot- beginning of 2012, both prices and rentals have selectively improved in key spots such as Mumbai, Shanghai, Singapore and Hong Kong. neighborhoods across Dubai. Delays/cancellation of some large scale projects has slowed the rate of new supply additions to the Dubai real estate market relative to the pre-bubble era. Significant correction in prices since Q1’2009 has set a stage of attractive rental yields compared to other cosmopolitan cities in the region. These factors combined with stable economy and rising influence of Dubai as a regional entertainment, business and retail hub have supported consolidation in property prices. Foreign investors have been active in the up-market residential space, as prices are competitively positioned compared to other Asian property hot- spots such as Mumbai, Singapore and Hong Kong. We believe, Dubai’s USP as a rising global entertainment hub, favorable government policies supporting housing finance and ownership, stable political climate and superior infrastructure in addition to attractive prices (rental yield) are driving investor interest back into Dubai real estate. Emaar remains the torch bearer of Dubai Real Estate and in many ways is emblematic of what brand ‘Dubai’ stands for. Villa prices as of May’12 are up 21% y- The combination of favorable macro-micro factors of rising investor confidence in o-y whilst apartment prices have Dubai real estate and Emaar’s traction in successfully de-risking its business model increase 1% y-o-y. Rents for both are catalyst which in our opinion will contribute to narrowing the gap between segments have increased by about 10% y-o-y. Emaars’ current market value and its estimated fair value. Property prices and rental income seem to have largely bottomed out in Q4’2011 Property prices in key residential neighborhoods of Dubai seem to have bottomed out by late 2011 and from the beginning of 2012 have shown signs of rising. Many other neighborhood below the top rung have evidenced stabilization in prices and rentals after having corrected throughout 2009-2011 due to considerable over supply and waning investor interest. Prices corrected roughly in the range of 25-60% based on various estimates for various category of properties from its Q3’2008 peak to its tough hit in Q2’2009. According to market estimates prices for both villas and apartments are increasing since the start of 2012. Villa prices as of May’12 are up 21% y-o-y whilst apartment prices have increased 1% y-o-y. Rents for both segments have increased by about 10% y -o-y. VISION INVESTMENT SERVICES CO. (S.A.O.C.) INITIATING COVERAGE: EMAAR PROPERTIES Page 2 of 20 Dubai Residential Property Price Indices Dubai Residential Property Rent Indices 500 125 400 100 300 75 200 50 100 25 Residential General Residential Apartment Residential Villa Residential General Residential Apartment Residential Villa 0 0 08 09 09 09 10 11 11 11 12 10 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jan-08 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan-09 Jan Jan Jan Sep-10 Sep Sep Sep Sep-09 Sep Sep May May-10 May May-12 May-08 May May May May-09 Source: Jones Lang Lasalle, Various Industry sources, Vision Research Source: Jones Lang Lasalle, Various Industry sources, Vision Research Significant correction in prices since Q3’2008 has set a stage of attractive (residential) rental yields compared to other cosmopolitan cities in the region. According to a recent report by Global Property Guide, rental yields in Dubai are now one of the best among major cosmopolitan cities across the world. Rental yields on residential apartments in Dubai are now among the best relative to other global cosmopolitan cities. Yields have long been considered as single most important metric in ‘back of the envelope’ valuation of real estate assets. We expect the rich yields available in Dubai should provide backdrop for long term price appreciation, going forward. Stabilization in supply supported by returning of normalcy in GDP growth post the crisis of 2008 has also favorably impacted return profile of existing development properties in the Emirate. 400 Dubai Residential Stock 10 Dubai Office Stock 380 3 8 Future supply 14 1 Completed stock 1 360 Future supply 6 24 Completed stock 340 381 4 Units '000sUnits Million Million Sqm 7 368 6 6 5 320 338 344 2 4 324 300 0 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Various Industry Sources, Vision Research Source: Various Industry Sources, Vision Research VISION INVESTMENT SERVICES CO. (S.A.O.C.) INITIATING COVERAGE: EMAAR PROPERTIES Page 3 of 20 Dubai’s rising influence as a global entertainment hub Dubai is seen by many high net worth individuals particularly from the GCC and the Lure of Dubai real estate driven by UAEs sub-continent region as an ideal location for second home driven mainly by its stable and predictable political climate, proximity to business centers on both side of the Arabian Peninsula, UAE’s stable better infrastructure, and relatively and predictable political climate, better infrastructure, and relatively lower costs of lower costs of living compared to West. living compared to the West. More importantly, Dubai’s thriving entertainment and Dubai’s thriving entert ainment and hospitality industry, as well as, its emergence as a regional trading hub has hospitality industry and emergence as a favorably supported the recovery in Dubai’s real estate prices and investor interest. regional trading hub Indicators of Dubai’s emergence as an international trading and entertainment hub include statistics such as: • Passenger Arrivals at Dubai Airport • Hotel occupancy rates • Footfalls at Malls in Dubai relative to similar quality assets globally In 2011, Dubai International Airport was fourth busiest airport by international passenger traffic and sixth busiest cargo airport in the world. Hotel occupancy rates in Dubai average around 80% in 2011. Occupancy and ADR (Average Daily Rates) steadily increased since the 2008 slump, this strong performance in inspite of the fact that more supply has been added to the sector since 2008. Footfalls in Dubai Mall, the largest mall in the world, stood at 54 million.
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