ctbuh.org/papers Title: Tall Buildings in the Global Recession: 2008, 2020 and Beyond Authors: Philip Oldfield, Research Coordinator, Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat Antony Wood, Executive Director, Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat Subjects: Construction Economics/Financial Social Issues Keywords: Construction Economics Publication Date: 2009 Original Publication: CTBUH Journal, 2009 Issue I Paper Type: 1. Book chapter/Part chapter 2. Journal paper 3. Conference proceeding 4. Unpublished conference paper 5. Magazine article 6. Unpublished © Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat / Philip Oldfield; Antony Wood Tall Buildings in the Global Recession: 2008, 2020 and beyond "Is this the end of the tall ambitions of places such as Moscow, Chicago or Dubai for the short to mid term future?" Philip Oldfield The year 2008 will long be remembered as the start of an economic crisis that has gripped the entire globe – a year that may also have brought to an abrupt end the worldwide construction boom of the past decade that has seen ever-denser cities containing ever-taller buildings proposed from Madrid to the Middle East, from Shanghai to San Francisco. As financial shock waves have reverberated around the world, high-profile tall building projects in virtually all skyscraper cities have been cancelled, delayed, or put on hold in response to the precarious global economic conditions. The question that everyone is now asking – is this the end of the tall ambitions of places such as Moscow, Chicago or Dubai for the short-mid term future? The Antony Wood correlation between tall buildings and economic recession is not a new one. In 1999 the 1 Author economist Andrew Lawrence created the ‘Skyscraper Index’ showing how almost all of the 1Philip Oldfield, CTBUH Research Coordinator world’s tallest buildings throughout history have reached completion virtually simultaneously 2Antony Wood, CTBUH Executive Director with the onset of a major economic recession. Using the research and criteria of the Council on Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH), and specifically their annual ’Ten Tallest Buildings Illinois Institute of Technology S.R. Crown Hall Completed Annually’ and projected ‘Tallest 20 in 2020’ research, this paper seeks to examine 3360 South State Street Chicago, IL 60616-3793 further the link between skyscrapers and economic cycles, and suggest how the current t: 312 567 x 13286 , 23307 economic crisis will affect tall building developments in the next decade or so. f: 312 567 3820 e: 1poldfieldctbuh.org e: 2awoodctbuh.org www.ctbuh.org The Current: The Ten Tallest Buildings Buildings Completed in 2008’ research2 (see Completed in 2008 Figure 2), indicates that the average height of 1Philip Oldfield Against the backdrop of global economic these tallest ten constructed in 2008 was 319 Philip Oldfield received his Bachelor of Architecture meters / 1048 feet, some 31 meters above the degree and Diploma in Architecture from the University crisis, 2008 has witnessed probably the most of Nottingham, England, obtaining First Class honours successful year of skyscraper construction ever, previous highest average of 288 meters / 944 at undergraduate level and a Distinction for his feet (set in 1998 with completion of the two Diploma portfolio. He is currently undertaking a PhD with more – and taller – skyscrapers examining strategies to reduce operational and constructed globally within a single year than 452 meter-tall Petronas Towers). That embodied energy in tall buildings, sponsored by Arup. constitutes some 676 floors of new Philip is a founding member of the Tall Buildings at any other time. The CTBUH ‘Ten Tallest Teaching and Research Group (www.tallbuildingstarg. com) and has taught high-rise design advanced studio projects at both the University of Nottingham and Illinois Institute of Technology. He has written many papers and articles in the field of tall buildings and also sat on the Scientific Committee for the CTBUH Dubai The Ten Tallest Buildings World Congress. Completed in 2008 2Antony Wood For locations of the Ten Tallest Antony Wood is Executive Director of the CTBUH since 2006, responsible for the day-to-day running of the Buildings completed in 2008 Council and steering in conjunction with the Board of see Figure 1, above right. Trustees, of which he is an ex-officio member. Prior to this, he was CTBUH Vice-Chairman for Europe and Head of Research. Based at the Illinois Institute of Technology, To download a PDF including Antony is also an Associate Professor in the College of more information on all proj- Architecture at IIT, where he convenes various tall building design studios. A UK architect by training, his ects shown on the right visit: field of specialism is the design, and in particular the www.ctbuh.org/2008.htm 1. Shanghai World Financial 2. Almas Tower 3. Minsheng Bank Building sustainable design, of tall buildings. Center Dubai, UAE Wuhan, China Shanghai, China 363m / 1191ft 331m / 1087ft 492m / 1614ft 20 | Tall Buildings in the Global Recession CTBUH Journal | 2009 Issue I For a detailed overview of Tall Building Construction 2008, see 'Tall Buildings In Numbers' pp. 44+45. WUHAN 3. Minsheng Bank 500m Building 400m SHANGHAI 1. Shanghai World Financial Center PHILADELPHIA 10. One Lujiazui 300m 6. Comcast Center HONG KONG 5. One Island East 8. The Cullinan I 200m 9. The Cullinan II DUBAI 100m 2. Almas Tower 4. The Address Downtown Burj Dubai 0m 7. Emirates Crown Taipei 101 Taipei 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Shanghai World Almas Tower Minsheng Bank The Address One Island Comcast Emirates The The One Lujiazui World’s Tallest Financial Center Dubai Building Downtown East Center Crown Cullinan I Cullinan II Shanghai Building since 2004 Shanghai Wuhan Burj Dubai Hong Kong Philadelphia Dubai Hong Kong Hong Kong (For reference) Dubai Figure 1. Locations: The Ten Tallest Buildings Completed in 2008 ©CTBUH Figure 2. The Ten Tallest Buildings Completed in 2008 ©CTBUH construction amongst these ten buildings the 100 Tallest Buildings in the World were stark realities of economic bust now evident, alone, and has added in a single year four located in North America. By 2010, just two and on the other hand the delivery of these supertall buildings to an existing global decades later, this figure will have decreased to very visual products of economic boom? Well, super-tall stock of only 38 supertalls.3 just 22%. given that any tall building project – and certainly any supertall building – takes often Geographically the Tallest Ten Buildings 5-10 years to come to fruition from the initial If we put the 2008 figures in the context of concept of the project, it is perhaps not Completed in 2008 reinforces what is previous and upcoming years (see Figure 3), becoming a well known doctrine in the tall surprising that there is this mis-match we can see confirmed the incontestable fact between idea and delivery. Tall buildings – like building world – namely that Asia and the that the tallest buildings in the world have Middle East are the current center of high-rise many large, intensive developments – are been getting taller each decade, and this is set inextricably linked to the confidence inspired construction globally. There are now more tall to continue certainly in 2009 with the buildings in Asia than in North America, and of by a buoyant market i.e. they are often expected completion of the next ‘World’s conceived at the height of a market. Given, as the ten tallest buildings on the 2008 list, six are Tallest Building’ – the Burj Dubai. At over 800 located in Asia (all in China) and three in the history shows, that unbridled economic meters / 2700 feet in height, the Burj Dubai will prosperity beyond a certain period of time Middle East (all in Dubai). Only the Comcast be approximately 60% taller than the world’s Center in Philadelphia, at number six on the without slowdown is highly unlikely, it is current tallest building – the 509 metre high virtually inevitable then that many of these list, is located in North America. In fact one has Taipei 101 in Taiwan. to go back to 1991, with the completion of the projects – conceived at the height of the Key Tower in Cleveland, to find the last time a market – will be delivered at the trough of a market, or at least in a time of economic building in North America topped the ‘Ten However, how can this be, in a world of global slowdown. ® Tallest Completed’ list. This shift in skyscraper bailouts, failing banks and rising construction location has occurred at a unemployment? How can we have such staggering pace; as recently as 1990, 80% of discrepancy between on the one hand the 4. The Address Downtown 5. One Island East 6. Comcast Center 7. Emirates Crown 8. The Cullinan I 9. The Cullinan II 10. One Lujiazui Burj Dubai Hong Kong, China Philadelphia, USA Dubai, UAE Hong Kong, China Hong Kong, China Shanghai, China Dubai, UAE 492m / 1614ft 297m / 974ft 296m / 971ft 270m / 886ft 270m / 886ft 269m / 883ft 306m / 1004ft CTBUH Journal | 2009 Issue I Tall Buildings in the Global Recession | 21 Average Height of the Ten Tallest Buildings Completed Each Year Future Projection: Average Height of the Ten Tallest Buildings Completed Each Year Construction Period of World's Tallest Buildings Period of Economic Contraction Figure 3. The Average Height of The Ten Tallest Buildings Completed in Years 1960 – 2020, also showing the construction of the World’s Tallest Buildings and periods of major economic downturn ©CTBUH Andrew Lawrence’s 1999 paper “The of the 1930’s; or the 1972-74 completions of Not all is perhaps as clear as Lawrence’s Skyscraper Index: Faulty Towers” 1 certainly the World Trade Center New York and Sears Skyscraper Index may suggest however, suggests this, and goes into some detail to Tower Chicago and the 1970’s oil crises / beyond this obvious correlation between the correlate the relationship between the world’s stagflation, to name but three.