DOCSLIB.ORG

Seasonality of the Hydrological Cycle in Major Asian River Basins

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Seasonality of the Hydrological Cycle in Major Asian River Basins EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Open Access Open Access Open Access Advances in Annales Nonlinear Processes Geosciences Geophysicae in Geophysics Open Access Open Access Natural Hazards Natural Hazards and Earth System and Earth System Sciences Sciences Discussions Open Access Open Access Atmospheric Atmospheric Chemistry Chemistry and Physics and Physics Discussions Open Access Open Access Atmospheric Atmospheric Measurement Measurement Techniques Techniques Discussions Open Access Open Access Biogeosciences Biogeosciences Discussions Open Access Open Access Climate Climate of the Past of the Past Discussions Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Open Access Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 4, 627–675, 2013 Open Access www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/4/627/2013/ Earth System Earth System ESDD doi:10.5194/esdd-4-627-2013 Dynamics © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License.Dynamics Discussions 4, 627–675, 2013 Open Access This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Earth System Open Access Geoscientific Geoscientific Seasonality of the Dynamics (ESD). Please referInstrumentation to the corresponding final paper in ESDInstrumentation if available. hydrological cycle in Methods and Methods and Data Systems Data Systems major Asian River Discussions Basins Open Access Open Access Seasonality of the hydrologicalGeoscientific cycle in Geoscientific S. Hasson et al. Model Development Model Development major South and Southeast AsianDiscussions River Open Access Basins as simulatedOpen Access by PCMDI/CMIP3 Title Page Hydrology and Hydrology and experimentsEarth System Earth System Abstract Introduction Sciences Sciences Conclusions References 1,2 1,3 1 2 Discussions Open Access S. Hasson , V. Lucarini , S. PascaleOpen Access , and J. Böhner Tables Figures 1 Ocean Science Meteorological Institute,Ocean KlimaCampus, Science University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 2Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany Discussions J I 3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, UK Open Access Open Access J I Received: 5 July 2013 – Accepted: 9 July 2013 – Published: 30 July 2013 Solid Earth Solid Earth Back Close Correspondence to: S. Hasson ([email protected]) Discussions Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Full Screen / Esc Open Access Open Access The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Printer-friendly Version Discussions Interactive Discussion 627 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract ESDD In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and 4, 627–675, 2013 Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra and Mekong). First, 5 we examine the skill of GCMs by analysing their simulations for the XX century climate Seasonality of the (1961–2000) under present-day forcing, and then we analyse the projected changes hydrological cycle in for the corresponding XXI and XXII century climates under SRESA1B scenario. CMIP3 major Asian River GCMs show a varying degree of skill in simulating the basic characteristics of the mon- Basins soonal precipitation regimes of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins, while 10 the representation of the hydrological cycle over the Indus basin is poor in most cases, S. Hasson et al. with few GCMs not capturing the monsoon signal at all. Although the models’ outputs feature a remarkable spread for the monsoonal precipitations, a satisfactory represen- tation of the western mid-latitude precipitation regime is instead observed. Similarly, Title Page most of the models exhibit a satisfactory agreement for the basin-integrated runoff in Abstract Introduction 15 winter and spring, while the spread is large for the runoff during the monsoon sea- son. For future climate scenarios, winter (spring) P − E decreases over all four (Indus Conclusions References and Ganges) basins due to decrease in precipitation associated with the western mid- Tables Figures latitude disturbances. Consequently, the spring (winter) runoff drops (rises) for the In- dus and Ganges basins. Such changes indicate a shift from rather glacial and nival to J I 20 more pluvial runoff regimes, particularly for the Indus basin. Furthermore, the rise in the projected runoff along with the increase in precipitations during summer and autumn J I indicates an intensification of the summer monsoon regime for all study basins. Back Close 1 Introduction Full Screen / Esc Substantial anthropogenic climate change-driven changes in the global hydrological Printer-friendly Version 25 cycle (Held and Soden, 2006; Allan, 2011) will largely impact the water demand and supply on regional and global scales. Since almost any human activity, and in par- Interactive Discussion 628 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ticular agriculture and industry, strongly depend on water availability, additional pres- sures on the on-going economic development and population growth will be associated ESDD with such changes (Kundzewicz et al., 2008) and may particularly be strong in areas 4, 627–675, 2013 more vulnerable to drought or flood. The situation is expected to be especially critical 5 for highly-populated regions of South and South-East Asia, whose agriculture-based economies and rapidly developing industrial systems are largely dependent on variable Seasonality of the water supplies. Therefore, inferring detailed information about the climate change, its hydrological cycle in impact on the water resources, and its consequent implications for the socio-economic major Asian River development sectors is vital for adequate adaptation and mitigation policies in the re- Basins 10 gion. Despite their structural limitations and ambiguities in the values of crucial parameters S. Hasson et al. (Held and Soden, 2006; Lucarini et al., 2008), General Circulation Models (GCMs) are presently the most powerful tools for simulating the Earth’s climate, its natural variability Title Page and the impact of anthropogenic forcing. GCMs’ simulations under diverse scenarios 15 are used by various scientific communities to inform stakeholders and policymakers on Abstract Introduction key impacts of climate change and to support the development of efficient mitigation and adaptation policies (IPCC AR4, 2007). In particular, GCMs are extensively being Conclusions References used to understand the effects of global warming on the water cycle at global and Tables Figures regional scale. It is widely accepted that a realistic representation of the hydrological 20 cycle is however non-trivial in these models because the hydro-meteorological pro- J I cesses take place on a vast range of time- and space-scales, including regimes which can be represented only through parameterizations (Hagemann et al., 2006; Tebaldi J I and Knutti, 2007). Biases due to processes occurring at very small scales can have Back Close global impacts: Liepert and Previdi (2012) have shown that most of CMIP3 GCMs have 25 serious problems in conserving the global water mass and that such inconsistencies Full Screen / Esc are truly macroscopic for few models. Such an inconsistent representation of the hy- drological cycle cause further biases in the energetics of the climate models (Liepert Printer-friendly Version and Previdi, 2012; Lucarini and Ragone, 2011), and leads to significant uncertainties in the climate change-induced variations of global and regional hydrological regimes. Interactive Discussion 629 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | The hydro-climatology of South and South-East Asia is extremely complex, as mon- soonal systems and mid-latitude disturbances (especially in the north-western sector ESDD of the region) are involved in determining the seasonality of the precipitation, with vast 4, 627–675, 2013 differences across the region. Therefore, climate change signals involve variations in 5 the geographical distribution, timing and intensity of the South Asian and South-East Asian summer monsoons and the extra tropical cyclones. Hence, it is crucial to re- Seasonality of the alistically represent such large-scale weather systems in order to have a satisfactory hydrological cycle in representation of the hydrological cycle by the climate models and to be able to have major Asian River a good representation of the effects of climate change on the hydrology of the region. Basins 10 Goswami (1998), Lal et al. (2001), Kang et al. (2002), Annamalai et al. (2007), Lin et al. (2008) and Boos and Hurley (2013) have been performed in this regard, ex- S. Hasson et al. hibiting model biases in the spatio-temporal distribution and magnitude of the summer monsoonal precipitation. Title Page As a result, considerable uncertainties exist on the projected changes or the hydrol- 15 ogy of South and South-East Asia. For instance, Arnell (1999), by using the Hadley Abstract Introduction Centre climate models (HADCM3), suggested an increase in the annual runoff for the Asian and Southeast Asian region, whereas Arora and Boer (2001), by using the Conclusions References Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model, Tables Figures suggested instead a decrease in it for the Southeast Asian river basin. Linking such 20 contrasting findings with the individual model biases, Nohara et al. (2006) assessed J I the projected changes in the hydrology
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Climate Models and Their Evaluation
    8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G.
    [Show full text]
  • Assimila Blank
    NERC NERC Strategy for Earth System Modelling: Technical Support Audit Report Version 1.1 December 2009 Contact Details Dr Zofia Stott Assimila Ltd 1 Earley Gate The University of Reading Reading, RG6 6AT Tel: +44 (0)118 966 0554 Mobile: +44 (0)7932 565822 email: [email protected] NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 Contents 1. BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Context .................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Scope of the ESM audit ............................................................................................ 4 1.4 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 5 2. Scene setting ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 NERC Strategy......................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Definition of Earth system modelling ........................................................................ 8 2.3 Broad categories of activities supported by NERC ................................................. 10 2.4 Structure of the report ...........................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Research 60:103
    Vol. 60: 103–117, 2014 CLIMATE RESEARCH Published online June 17 doi: 10.3354/cr01222 Clim Res Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis K. Srinivasa Raju1, D. Nagesh Kumar2,3,* 1Department of Civil Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology and Science-Pilani, Hyderabad campus, India 2Center for Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, 560012 Bangalore, India 3Present address: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, 560012 Bangalore, India ABSTRACT: Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL- CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5° × 2.5°) for the climate variable ‘precipitation rate’ using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute rela- tive error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indi- cators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns.
    [Show full text]
  • Future Predictions of Rainfall and Temperature Using GCM and ANN for Arid Regions: a Case Study for the Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia
    water Article Future Predictions of Rainfall and Temperature Using GCM and ANN for Arid Regions: A Case Study for the Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia Khalid Alotaibi 1,*, Abdul Razzaq Ghumman 1 , Husnain Haider 1, Yousry Mahmoud Ghazaw 1,2 and Md. Shafiquzzaman 1 1 Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Qassim University, Buraydah 51431, Al Qassim, Saudi Arabia; [email protected] (A.R.G.); [email protected] (H.H.); [email protected] (Y.M.G.); shafi[email protected] (M.S.) 2 Department of Irrigation and Hydraulics, College of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria 21544, Egypt * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +966-531-105-001 Received: 26 July 2018; Accepted: 13 September 2018; Published: 15 September 2018 Abstract: Future predictions of rainfall patterns in water-scarce regions are highly important for effective water resource management. Global circulation models (GCMs) are commonly used to make such predictions, but these models are highly complex and expensive. Furthermore, their results are associated with uncertainties and variations for different GCMs for various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Data-driven models including artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) can be used to predict long-term future changes in rainfall and temperature, which is a challenging task and has limitations including the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Therefore, in this research, results from various GCMs and data-driven models were investigated to study the changes in temperature and rainfall of the Qassim region in Saudi Arabia. Thirty years of monthly climatic data were used for trend analysis using Mann–Kendall test and simulating the changes in temperature and rainfall using three GCMs (namely, HADCM3, INCM3, and MPEH5) for the A1B, A2, and B1 emissions scenarios as well as two data-driven models (ANN: feed-forward-multilayer, perceptron and ANFIS) without the impact of any emissions scenario.
    [Show full text]
  • The New Hadley Centre Climate Model (Hadgem1): Evaluation of Coupled Simulations
    1APRIL 2006 J OHNS ET AL. 1327 The New Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadGEM1): Evaluation of Coupled Simulations T. C. JOHNS,* C. F. DURMAN,* H. T. BANKS,* M. J. ROBERTS,* A. J. MCLAREN,* J. K. RIDLEY,* ϩ C. A. SENIOR,* K. D. WILLIAMS,* A. JONES,* G. J. RICKARD, S. CUSACK,* W. J. INGRAM,# M. CRUCIFIX,* D. M. H. SEXTON,* M. M. JOSHI,* B.-W. DONG,* H. SPENCER,@ R. S. R. HILL,* J. M. GREGORY,& A. B. KEEN,* A. K. PARDAENS,* J. A. LOWE,* A. BODAS-SALCEDO,* S. STARK,* AND Y. SEARL* *Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom ϩNIWA, Wellington, New Zealand #Met Office, Exeter, and Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom @CGAM, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom &Met Office, Exeter, and CGAM, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom (Manuscript received 30 May 2005, in final form 9 December 2005) ABSTRACT A new coupled general circulation climate model developed at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre is pre- sented, and aspects of its performance in climate simulations run for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) documented with reference to previous models. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1 (HadGEM1) is built around a new atmospheric dynamical core; uses higher resolution than the previous Hadley Centre model, HadCM3; and contains several improvements in its formulation including interactive atmospheric aerosols (sulphate, black carbon, biomass burning, and sea salt) plus their direct and indirect effects. The ocean component also has higher resolution and incorporates a sea ice component more advanced than HadCM3 in terms of both dynamics and thermodynamics.
    [Show full text]
  • The Dynamic Response of the Global Atmosphere-Vegetation Coupled System
    THE UNIVERSITY OF READING Department of Meteorology The Dynamic Response of the Global Atmosphere-Vegetation coupled system John K. Hughes A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy October 2003 ’Declaration I confirm that this is my own work and the use of all material from other sources has been properly and fully acknowledged’ John Hughes The Dynamic Response of the Atmosphere-Vegetation coupled system Abstract Concern about future changes in the carbon cycle have highlighted the importance of a dy- namic representation of the carbon cycle in models, yet this has not been fully assessed. In this thesis, we investigate the dynamic carbon cycle model included within the Hadley Centre’s model. In order to understand the behaviour of the vegetation model a simplified model, describing the behaviour of a single plant functional type is derived. The ability of the simplified model to simulate vegetation dynamics is validated against the behaviour of the full complexity model. The dynamical properties of the simplified model are then investigated. To further investigate the dynamic response of vegetation, a 300 year climate model simulation of terrestrial vegetation re-growth from global desert has been performed. Vegetation is shown to introduce large time lags in land surface properties. This large memory in the terrestrial carbon cycle is an important result for GCM simulations. The large timescale also affects the response of existing vegetation to climatic forcings. The behaviour of the land surface in terms of source-sink transitions of atmospheric CO2 is discussed. It is found that the transitions between source and sink of CO2 are dependant on the vegetation timescales.
    [Show full text]
  • Technical Manual for PRECIS
    Technical Manual for PRECIS The Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system Version 2.0.0 www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis Simon Wilson, David Hassell, David Hein, Changgui Wang, Simon Tucker Richard Jones and Ruth Taylor November 16, 2015 Contents 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background .............................. 11 1.2 Objectivesandstructureofthemanual . 12 2 Hardware, operating system and software environment 13 2.1 Recommended Hardware Configurations . 13 2.2 Multi-processorsystems . 14 2.3 InstallationofLinux ......................... 14 2.4 Compilers ............................... 16 2.5 System setup before installing PRECIS . 17 3 PRECIS software and installation 19 3.1 Introduction.............................. 19 3.2 Disklayout .............................. 20 3.3 Main steps in installation process . 21 3.4 Installation of PRECIS software and data . 22 3.5 InstallationofMetOfficedata . 26 3.5.1 Boundary data supplied on hard drive . 26 3.6 Installation verification . 28 3.7 InstallationofCDAT ......................... 29 4 Experimental design and setup 30 4.1 Experimentaldesign ......................... 30 4.1.1 Regional climate model . 30 2 4.1.2 Choice of driving model and forcing scenario . 30 4.1.3 CMIP5 Driving GCMs and Representative Concentration Pathways ........................... 37 4.1.4 Simulationlength. 40 4.1.5 Initial condition ensembles . 41 4.1.6 Choice of land surface scheme . 42 4.1.7 Outputdata.......................... 42 4.1.8 Spinup............................. 42 4.1.9 Choice of region . 43 4.1.10 Land-seamask ........................ 43 4.1.11 Altitude ............................ 45 4.1.12 Altitude of inland waters . 45 4.1.13 Soil and land cover . 45 4.1.14 RCM calendar and clock . 46 4.1.15 RCM Resolution . 46 4.1.16 Outputformat .......................
    [Show full text]
  • A Description of the FAMOUS (Version XDBUA) Climate Model and Control Run
    Geosci. Model Dev., 1, 53–68, 2008 www.geosci-model-dev.net/1/53/2008/ Geoscientific © Author(s) 2008. This work is distributed under Model Development the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run R. S. Smith1, J. M. Gregory1,2, and A. Osprey1 1NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute, Reading, UK 2Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK Received: 2 July 2008 – Published in Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.: 28 July 2008 Revised: 2 December 2008 – Accepted: 2 December 2008 – Published: 12 December 2008 Abstract. FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circu- (AOGCM) means that they are usually impractical for studies lation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approx- where millennial timescales are addressed or large ensembles imately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using are required. Whilst simplified models which are capable of current high performance computing facilities. It uses most quickly simulating many thousands of years of climate are of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model available (e.g. Earth System Models of Intermediate Com- of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been plexity (EMIC) Claussen et al., 2002), they often have to tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FA- omit important processes. To reduce the computational ex- MOUS is useful for climate simulations where the compu- pense of an AOGCM without neglecting any of the processes tational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, it describes, one may decrease the spatial resolution and in- either because of the length of simulation or the size of the crease the timestep of the model.
    [Show full text]
  • (Hadgem1). Part I: Model Description and Global Climatology
    1274 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 19 The Physical Properties of the Atmosphere in the New Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part I: Model Description and Global Climatology G. M. MARTIN,M.A.RINGER,V.D.POPE,A.JONES,C.DEARDEN, AND T. J. HINTON Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom (Manuscript received 28 April 2005, in final form 28 July 2005) ABSTRACT The atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is described and an assessment of its mean climatology presented. HadGEM1 includes substantially improved representations of physical processes, increased functionality, and higher resolution than its predecessor, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3). Major devel- opments are the use of semi-Lagrangian instead of Eulerian advection for both dynamical and tracer fields; new boundary layer, gravity wave drag, microphysics, and sea ice schemes; and major changes to the convection, land surface (including tiled surface characteristics), and cloud schemes. There is better cou- pling between the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice subcomponents and the model includes an inter- active aerosol scheme, representing both the first and second indirect effects. Particular focus has been placed on improving the processes (such as clouds and aerosol) that are most uncertain in projections of climate change. These developments lead to a significantly more realistic simulation of the processes represented, the most notable improvements being in the hydrological cycle, cloud radiative properties, the boundary layer, the tropopause structure, and the representation of tracers. 1. Introduction Lagrangian dynamical core, which has recently been implemented in the Met Office’s operational forecast Advances in our understanding of the climate sys- models.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloaded 09/27/21 11:10 AM UTC
    1302 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 19 The Physical Properties of the Atmosphere in the New Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of Variability and Regional Climate M. A. RINGER,G.M.MARTIN,C.Z.GREEVES,T.J.HINTON,P.M.JAMES,V.D.POPE,A.A.SCAIFE, AND R. A. STRATTON Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom P. M. INNESS,J.M.SLINGO, AND G.-Y. YANG Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom (Manuscript received 17 June 2005, in final form 2 December 2005) ABSTRACT The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3.
    [Show full text]
  • Anthropogenic Climate Change for 1860 to 2100 Simulated with the Hadcm3 Model Under Updated Emissions Scenarios
    Climate Dynamics (2003) 20: 583–612 DOI 10.1007/s00382-002-0296-y T.C. Johns Æ J.M. Gregory Æ W.J. Ingram C.E. Johnson Æ A. Jones Æ J.A. Lowe J.F.B. Mitchell Æ D.L. Roberts Æ D.M.H. Sexton D.S. Stevenson Æ S.F.B. Tett Æ M.J. Woodage Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios Received: 29 April 2002 / Accepted: 31 October 2002 / Published online: 18 February 2003 Ó Springer-Verlag 2003 Abstract In this study we examine the anthropogenically considered, but marked drying in the mid-USA and forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 southern Europe and significantly wetter conditions for to present, and projected response to 2100, using South Asia, in June–July–August, are robust and sig- updated emissions scenarios and an improved coupled nificant. model (HadCM3) that does not use flux adjustments. We concentrate on four new Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) namely (A1FI, A2, B2, B1) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1 Introduction Third Assessment Report, considered more self-consis- tent in their socio-economic and emissions structure, There is growing expectation that increases in the con- and therefore more policy relevant, than older scenarios centrations of greenhouse gases arising from human ac- like IS92a. We include an interactive model representa- tivity will lead to substantial changes in climate in the tion of the anthropogenic sulfur cycle and both direct twenty first century. Indeed, there is already evidence and indirect forcings from sulfate aerosols, but omit the that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases second indirect forcing effect through cloud lifetimes.
    [Show full text]
  • Comparison of Hadcm3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2. 1 in Prediction The
    American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2018, Vol. 6, No. 3, 93-100 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajcea/6/3/1 ©Science and Education Publishing DOI:10.12691/ajcea-6-3-1 Comparison of HadCM3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 in Prediction the Climate Change in Taleghan River Basin Arash YoosefDoost1,*, Icen YoosefDoost2, Hossein Asghari3, Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian1 1Civil Engineering Department, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran 2Water Science and Engineering Department, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran 3Environment Department, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran *Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Climate change is a complex and long-term global atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon which can be influenced by natural factors such as volcanoes, solar, oceans and atmosphere activities which they have interactions between or may be as a result of human activities. Atmospheric general circulation models are developed for simulation of current climate of the earth and are able to predict the earth's future climate change. In this paper, the performance of GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO Mk3 and HadCM3 AOGCMs were assessed and evaluated in the study of the climate change effects on temperature and precipitation in Taleghan basin. The results show that HadCM3 model in comparison with CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 models has indicated the better performance in this region. Keywords: Atmosphere General Circulation Models, AOGCM, CSIRO Mk3, HadCM3, Climate Change, Taleghan Region Cite This Article: Arash YoosefDoost, Icen YoosefDoost, Hossein Asghari, and Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian, “Comparison of HadCM3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 in Prediction the Climate Change in Taleghan River Basin.” American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol.
    [Show full text]