(Hadgem1). Part I: Model Description and Global Climatology
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Western Europe Is Warming Much Faster Than Expected
Clim. Past, 5, 1–12, 2009 www.clim-past.net/5/1/2009/ Climate © Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under of the Past the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Western Europe is warming much faster than expected G. J. van Oldenborgh1, S. Drijfhout1, A. van Ulden1, R. Haarsma1, A. Sterl1, C. Severijns1, W. Hazeleger1, and H. Dijkstra2 1KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut), De Bilt, The Netherlands 2Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Received: 28 July 2008 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 29 July 2008 Revised: 22 December 2008 – Accepted: 22 December 2008 – Published: 21 January 2009 Abstract. The warming trend of the last decades is now so by Regional Climate models (RCMs) do not deviate much strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. from GCMs, as the prescribed SST and boundary condition This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warm- determine the temperature to a large extent (Lenderink et al., ing predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), 2007). which up to now could not be verified directly to observations By now, global warming can be detected even on the grid on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too point scale. In this paper we investigate the high tempera- low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over ture trends observed in western Europe over the last decades. the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by First we compare these with the trends expected on the basis state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due of climate model experiments. -
Climate Models and Their Evaluation
8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. -
The Lagrangian Chemistry and Transport Model ATLAS: Validation of Advective Transport and Mixing
Geosci. Model Dev., 2, 153–173, 2009 www.geosci-model-dev.net/2/153/2009/ Geoscientific © Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under Model Development the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The Lagrangian chemistry and transport model ATLAS: validation of advective transport and mixing I. Wohltmann and M. Rex Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany Received: 25 June 2009 – Published in Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.: 3 July 2009 Revised: 15 September 2009 – Accepted: 2 October 2009 – Published: 2 November 2009 Abstract. We present a new global Chemical Transport In the context of this paper, numerical diffusion is defined Model (CTM) with full stratospheric chemistry and La- as any process that is triggered by the model calculations grangian transport and mixing called ATLAS (Alfred We- and behaves like a diffusive process acting on the chemical gener InsTitute LAgrangian Chemistry/Transport System). species in the model. Typically, numerical diffusion will be Lagrangian (trajectory-based) models have several important spurious and unrealistic, e.g. present in every grid cell with advantages over conventional Eulerian (grid-based) models, the same magnitude. We do not consider processes as nu- including the absence of spurious numerical diffusion, ef- merical diffusion here which are deliberately introduced into ficient code parallelization and no limitation of the largest the model, e.g. to mimic the observed diffusion. Eulerian ap- time step by the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy criterion. The ba- proaches suffer from numerical diffusion because they con- sic concept of transport and mixing is similar to the approach tain an advection step that transfers information between dif- in the commonly used CLaMS model. -
ESM-Tools Version 4.0: a Modular Infrastructure for Stand-Alone
ESM-Tools Version 4.0: A modular infrastructure for stand-alone and coupled Earth System Modelling (ESM) Dirk Barbi1, Nadine Wieters1, Paul Gierz1, Fatemeh Chegini1, 3, Sara Khosravi2, and Luisa Cristini1 1Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany 2Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany 3Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Correspondence: Luisa Cristini ([email protected]) Abstract. Earth system and climate modelling involves the simulation of processes on a wide range of scales and within and across various compartments of the Earth system. In practice, component models are often developed independently by different research groups, adapted by others to their special interests, and then combined using a dedicated coupling software. This 5 procedure not only leads to a strongly growing number of available versions of model components and coupled setups, but also to model- and HPC-system dependent ways of obtaining, configuring, building, and operating them. Therefore, implementing these Earth System Models (ESMs) can be challenging and extremely time consuming, especially for less experienced mod- ellers, or scientists aiming to use different ESMs as in the case of inter-comparison projects. To assist researchers and modellers by reducing avoidable complexity, we developed the ESM-Tools software, which provides 10 a standard way for downloading, configuring, compiling, running and monitoring different models on a variety of High Perfor- mance Computing (HPC) systems. It should be noted that the ESM-Tools are equally applicable and helpful for stand-alone as for coupled models. In fact, the ESM-Tools are used as standard compile and runtime infrastructure for FESOM2, and currently also applied for ECHAM and ICON standalone simulations. -
Improving Climate Model Accuracy by Exploring Parameter Space with an O(105) Member
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 1 Improving climate model accuracy by exploring parameter space with an O(105) member 2 ensemble and emulator 3 Sihan Li1,2, David E. Rupp3, Linnia Hawkins3,6, Philip W. Mote3,6, Doug McNeall4, Sarah 4 N. Sparrow2, David C. H. Wallom2, Richard A. Betts4,5, Justin J. Wettstein6,7,8 5 1Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University 6 of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 7 2Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 8 3Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric 9 Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 10 4Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom 11 5College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 12 6College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, 13 Oregon 14 7Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway 15 8Bjerknes Centre for Climate Change Research, Bergen, Norway 16 Correspondence to: Sihan Li ([email protected]) 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1 Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Discussion started: 23 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. 24 Abstract 25 Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many 26 of which have large summer warm and dry biases over Northern Hemisphere continental 27 mid-latitudes. -
Documentation and Software User’S Manual, Version 4.1
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System version 2 (CanSIPSv2) Canadian Meteorological Centre Technical Note H. Lin1, W. J. Merryfield2, R. Muncaster1, G. Smith1, M. Markovic3, A. Erfani3, S. Kharin2, W.-S. Lee2, M. Charron1 1-Meteorological Research Division 2-Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) 3-Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) 7 May 2019 i Revisions Version Date Authors Remarks 1.0 2019/04/22 Hai Lin First draft 1.1 2019/04/26 Hai Lin Corrected the bias figures. Comments from Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield 1.2 2019/05/01 Hai Lin Figures of CanSIPSv2 uses CanCM4i plus GEM-NEMO 1.3 2019/05/03 Bill Merrifield Added CanCM4i information, sea ice Hai Lin verification, 6.6 and 9 1.4 2019/05/06 Hai Lin All figures of CanSIPSv2 with CanCM4i and GEM-NEMO, made available by Slava Kharin ii © Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 2 Modifications to models .......................................................................................................... 6 2.1 CanCM4i .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 GEM-NEMO .................................................................................................................... 6 3 Forecast initialization ............................................................................................................. -
Prep Publi Catio on Cop Py
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PREPUBLICATION COPY Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution Board on Atmospheric Sciencees and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies This prepublication version of Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in spring 2016. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation under contract number 2015- 63077, the Heising-Simons Foundation under contract number 2015-095, the Litterman Family Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX15AW55G, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number EE- 133E-15-SE-1748, and the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-SC0014256, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: International Standard Book Number-10: Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21852 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. -
On the Uses of a New Linear Scheme for Stratospheric Methane in Global Models: Water Source, Transport Tracer and Radiative Forc
Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 479–523, 2012 Atmospheric www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/479/2012/ Chemistry doi:10.5194/acpd-12-479-2012 and Physics © Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Discussions This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP if available. On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing B. M. Monge-Sanz1, M. P. Chipperfield1, A. Untch2, J.-J. Morcrette2, A. Rap1, and A. J. Simmons2 1Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK Received: 10 October 2011 – Accepted: 5 November 2011 – Published: 6 January 2012 Correspondence to: B. M. Monge-Sanz ([email protected]) Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 479 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract A new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane (CoMeCAT) has been devel- oped and tested. The scheme is derived from a 3-D full chemistry transport model (CTM) and tested within the same chemistry model itself, as well as in an independent 5 general circulation model (GCM). The new CH4/H2O scheme is suitable for any global model and here is shown to provide realistic profiles in the 3-D TOMCAT/SLIMCAT CTM and in the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) GCM. -
Validation of Climate Models
Validation of Climate Models Simon Tett 19/6/06 with thanks to: Keith Williams, Mark Webb, Mark Rodwell, Roy Kershaw, Sean Milton, Gill Martin, Tim Johns, Jonathan Gregory, Peter Thorne, Philip Brohan & © Crown copyright John Caesar Page 1 Approaches Parameterisation & Forecast error Climatology's Climate Variability Climate Change. © Crown copyright Page 2 Methodology for improving parametrizations CRMs Observations Forcing Evaluation Evaluation g Fo Analysis Development in rc rc on in Fo ati g alu Ev NWP Forecast SCMs Development Forcing Evaluation (consistent errors?) © Crown copyright Page 3 Tropical Systematic Biases in NWP Moisture balance from Thermodynamic (RH) Profile Errors Idealised Aquaplanet – suggest Vs ARM Manus Sondes JAS 2003– convection largest contributor to Errors in convection? humidity biases Convection too shallow? 20 hPa Unrealistic 77 Moistening and drying 192 in forecasts 367 576 777 Moister at cloud base & Freezing level 922 © Crown copyright Page 4 S.Milton & M.Willett NWP Tropical T, RH, and Wind Errors vs Sondes Summer 2005 – Impact of new Physics A package of physics improvements introduced in March 2006 Improved Thermodynamic Profiles • Adaptive detrainment (conv) –> improve detrainment of moisture. • Changes to marine BL –> reduce LH fluxes Old • Non-gradient momentum stress. -> Improve low level winds Model New Physics ΔRH Day 5 Circulation Errors In Equatorial Winds Reduced ΔT Day 5 S. Derbyshire, A. Maidens, A. Brown, J.Edwards, M.Willett & S.Milton © Crown copyright Page 5 Spinup Tendencies Used to assess the contribution of individual physical parametrisations and dynamics to systematic errors. Run a ~60-member ensemble of 1 to 5 day integrations started from operational NWP analyses scattered evenly over a period e.g. -
Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Anthony Lupo (USA) William Kininmonth (Australia) Contributing: J
1 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Anthony Lupo (USA) William Kininmonth (Australia) Contributing: J. Scott Armstrong (USA), Kesten Green (Australia) 1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations Key Findings Introduction 1.1 Model Simulation and Forecasting 1.2 Modeling Techniques 1.3 Elements of Climate 1.4 Large Scale Phenomena and Teleconnections Key Findings Confidence in a model is further based on the The IPCC places great confidence in the ability of careful evaluation of its performance, in which model general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate future output is compared against actual observations. A climate and attribute observed climate change to large portion of this chapter, therefore, is devoted to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. They the evaluation of climate models against real-world claim the “development of climate models has climate and other biospheric data. That evaluation, resulted in more realism in the representation of many summarized in the findings of numerous peer- quantities and aspects of the climate system,” adding, reviewed scientific papers described in the different “it is extremely likely that human activities have subsections of this chapter, reveals the IPCC is caused more than half of the observed increase in overestimating the ability of current state-of-the-art global average surface temperature since the 1950s” GCMs to accurately simulate both past and future (p. 9 and 10 of the Summary for Policy Makers, climate. The IPCC’s stated confidence in the models, Second Order Draft of AR5, dated October 5, 2012). as presented at the beginning of this chapter, is likely This chapter begins with a brief review of the exaggerated. -
Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Material in Radiological Risk Assessment and Emergency Response
Progress in NUCLEAR SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY, Vol. 1, p.7-13 (2011) REVIEW Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Material in Radiological Risk Assessment and Emergency Response YAO Rentai * China Institute for Radiation Protection, P.O.Box 120, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China The purpose of a consequence assessment system is to assess the consequences of specific hazards on people and the environment. In this paper, the studies on technique and method of atmospheric dispersion modeling of radioactive material in radiological risk assessment and emergency response are reviewed in brief. Some current statuses of nuclear accident consequences assessment in China were introduced. In the future, extending the dispersion modeling scales such as urban building scale, establishing high quality experiment dataset and method of model evaluation, improved methods of real-time modeling using limited inputs, and so on, should be promoted with high priority of doing much more work. KEY WORDS: atmospheric model, risk assessment, emergency response, nuclear accident 11) I. Introduction from U.S. NOAA, and SPEEDI/WSPEEDI from The studies and developments of techniques and methods Japan/JAERI. However, the needs of emergency of atmospheric dispersion modeling of radioactive material management may not be well satisfied by existing models in radiological risk assessment and emergency response which are not well designed and confronted with difficulty have evolved over the past 50-60 years. The three marked in detailed constructions of local wind and turbulence -
Lecture 29. Introduction to Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models
Lecture 29. Introduction to atmospheric chemical transport models. Part 1. Objectives: 1. Model types. 2. Box models. 3. One-dimensional models. 4. Two-dimensional models. 5. Three-dimensional models. Readings: Graedel T. and P.Crutzen. “Atmospheric change: an earth system perspective”. Chapter 15.”Bulding environmental chemical models”, 1992. 1. Model types. Mathematical models provide the necessary framework for integration of our understanding of individual atmospheric processes and study of their interactions. Note, that atmosphere is a complex reactive system in which numerous physical and chemical processes occur simultaneously. • Atmospheric chemical transport models are defined according to their spatial scale: Model Typical domain scale Typical resolution Microscale 200x200x100 m 5 m Mesoscale(urban) 100x100x5 km 2 km Regional 1000x1000x10 km 20 km Synoptic(continental) 3000x3000x20 km 80 km Global 65000x65000x20km 50x50 1 Figure 29.1 Components of a chemical transport model (Seinfeld and Pandis, 1998). 2 • Domain of the atmospheric model is the area that is simulated. The computation domain consists of an array of computational cells, each having uniform chemical composition. The size of cells determines the spatial resolution of the model. • Atmospheric chemical transport models are also characterized by their dimensionality: zero-dimensional (box) model; one-dimensional (column) model; two-dimensional model; and three-dimensional model. • Model time scale depends on a specific application varying from hours (e.g., air quality model) to hundreds of years (e.g., climate models) 3 Two principal approaches to simulate changes in the chemical composition of a given air parcel: 1) Lagrangian approach: air parcel moves with the local wind so that there is no mass exchange that is allowed to enter the air parcel and its surroundings (except of species emissions).