Comparison of Hadcm3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2. 1 in Prediction The
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American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2018, Vol. 6, No. 3, 93-100 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajcea/6/3/1 ©Science and Education Publishing DOI:10.12691/ajcea-6-3-1 Comparison of HadCM3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 in Prediction the Climate Change in Taleghan River Basin Arash YoosefDoost1,*, Icen YoosefDoost2, Hossein Asghari3, Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian1 1Civil Engineering Department, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran 2Water Science and Engineering Department, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran 3Environment Department, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran *Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Climate change is a complex and long-term global atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon which can be influenced by natural factors such as volcanoes, solar, oceans and atmosphere activities which they have interactions between or may be as a result of human activities. Atmospheric general circulation models are developed for simulation of current climate of the earth and are able to predict the earth's future climate change. In this paper, the performance of GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO Mk3 and HadCM3 AOGCMs were assessed and evaluated in the study of the climate change effects on temperature and precipitation in Taleghan basin. The results show that HadCM3 model in comparison with CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 models has indicated the better performance in this region. Keywords: Atmosphere General Circulation Models, AOGCM, CSIRO Mk3, HadCM3, Climate Change, Taleghan Region Cite This Article: Arash YoosefDoost, Icen YoosefDoost, Hossein Asghari, and Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian, “Comparison of HadCM3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 in Prediction the Climate Change in Taleghan River Basin.” American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol. 6, no. 3 (2018): 93-100. doi: 10.12691/ajcea-6-3-1. fossil fuels beside the the destruction of forests and grasslands and agricultural land use change are results of 1. Introduction human activities and have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases particularly CO2 from 280 ppm in 1750 Climate can become warmer or colder and the average to 379 ppm in 2005. Studies show that if current trend in of each factor of its components increases or decreases use of fossil fuels continues, the concentration of CO2 over the time, so climate change is an irreversible change could reach more than 600 ppm by the end of the twenty- in the average of weather conditions that occurs in a first century [2] According to the Intergovernmental report region. In other words, the significant statistical change is about Climate Change, the Earth's surface temperature has in the average of weather or its variability that continues increased 0.3 to 0.6 degrees Celsius because of over a long period. This change can be in the average greenhouse gas emissions over the past century and it is temperature, precipitation, humidity, weather patterns, predicted that its amount will rise to 1 to 3°C until 2100. wind, solar radiation and any other weather components. Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) Climate change is a complex and long-term global are developed to simulate current climate on the Earth and atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon which can be influenced are able to predict future climate change on the Earth [3]. by natural factors such as volcanoes, solar, oceans and These models were introduced and used based on Norman atmosphere activities which they have interactions Philips’s personal investigation for the first time in 1956 between or may be as a result of human activities [1]. when he developed a mathematical model that could Some researchers considered increasing greenhouse gases realistically depict monthly and seasonal patterns in the as the most important factor of the the gradual increase of troposphere which became the first successful climate the earth and oceans temperatures. The earth general model [4,5]. Following Phillips's work, several groups warming has caused two important phenomena: increasing began working to create GCMs [6]. The first to combine the global temperature average and consequently increase both oceanic and atmospheric processes was developed in of the sea level during the recent century. Moreover, the late 1960s at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics according to regional and local scale, the climate change Laboratory [7]. By the early 1980s, the United States' has a considerable influence on precipitation, evaporation, National Center for Atmospheric Research had developed runoff and as a result in the extreme meteorology events. the Community Atmosphere Model; this model has been From the beginning industrial revolution, the growth of continuously refined [8]. In 1996, efforts began to model industries and factories and consequently consumption of soil and vegetation types [9]. Later the Hadley Centre for 94 American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture Climate Prediction and Research's HadCM3 model coupled the disability to modeling the effects of clouds on the ocean-atmosphere elements [6]. The role of gravity waves atmosphere and inadequate accuracy to express the effects was added in the mid-1980s. Gravity waves are required of hydrological variables such as land use. In general, to simulate regional and global scale circulations accurately GCM models have better performance to simulate and [10]. predict large-scale climate events such as assessment of IPCC presented four major assessments in the field of enormous storms rather than expression of local and climate change (FAR1-1990, SAR2-1995, TAR3-2001 and regional climate processes such as rainfall-runoff process AR44-2007) so far. Since 2007 the use of GCM models [12]. offered in AR4-2007 has considerable growth in climate GCM models in spatial scale, usually networked the change researches in comparison with other offered atmosphere between 5 to 20 unequal layers. The intended models in previous reports. The output of these models are network based on these models, usually has the length and accessible from Data Distribution Center (DDC) which is width equal to 2 to 5 degree and also has a height with 6 created in 1998 based on the proposal of Task Group on to 15 units. These layers were near the earth surface and Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment (TGICA). the layers near to surface have less distance with each other. It is evident that the fluid dynamics equations computation limits in these models have spatial and 2. Materials and Methods temporal dimensions. The most of GCM models for implementation requires to supercomputers. Such model 2.1. General Circulation Models requires to run time for several days to simulate changes of a region. This time is too dependent on a spatial A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate network dimensions. model. It employs a mathematical model of the general AGCMs models that are considered the atmosphere circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. It uses interaction and OGCMs models that are intended the the Naiver–Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with oceans interaction. Usually general circulation models thermodynamic terms for various energy sources are included a combination of two AGCM and OGCM (radiation, latent heat). These equations are the basis for models. Such models are named AOGCMs. computer programs used to simulate the Earth's atmosphere or oceans. Atmospheric and oceanic GCMs 2.2. Special Report of Emission Scenario (AGCM and OGCM) are key components along with sea (SRES) ice and land-surface components [11]. GCMs and global climate models are used for weather forecasting, understanding the climate and forecasting climate change. Versions designed for decade to century time scale climate applications were originally created by Syukuro Manabe and Kirk Bryan at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey [7]. These models are based on the integration of a variety of fluid dynamical, chemical and sometimes biological equations. General Circulation Models are developed to simulate current climate on the Earth and are able to predict future climate change on the Earth [3]. These models were introduced and used based on Philips’s personal investigation for the first time in the 1960s. Atmosphere General Circulation Models solve continuity equations for fluid dynamics in spatial and temporal discrete scales, and their structure is the same as numerical weather prediction models. The main difference is that in these models the weather predictions have been done in a shorter period of time (a few days) by defining the initial conditions precisely and their accuracy is limited to a regional with dimensions less than 150 kilometers. But the network which is defined for GCM may include some geographic Figure 1. Four family of emission scenarios and their simulation factors latitude and longitude to simulate long-term weather [12]. [14] In early GCM models, physical characteristics of the IPCC provided the primary series of emission scenarios atmosphere at the Earth's surface were used as boundary in 1992 which is called IPCC (IS92a-IS92f). In these conditions, but recently in these models atmosphere-ocean scenarios, the amounts of greenhouse gases will increase boundary conditions are used for ocean modeling and with a fixed rate until 2100. In 1996, in order to update surface temperature and soil moisture are used for Earth’s and replace IS92 scenarios, a series of emission scenarios surface. One of the major weaknesses of these models is called as Special