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Climate Models and Their Evaluation
8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. -
Assimila Blank
NERC NERC Strategy for Earth System Modelling: Technical Support Audit Report Version 1.1 December 2009 Contact Details Dr Zofia Stott Assimila Ltd 1 Earley Gate The University of Reading Reading, RG6 6AT Tel: +44 (0)118 966 0554 Mobile: +44 (0)7932 565822 email: [email protected] NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 Contents 1. BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Context .................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Scope of the ESM audit ............................................................................................ 4 1.4 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 5 2. Scene setting ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 NERC Strategy......................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Definition of Earth system modelling ........................................................................ 8 2.3 Broad categories of activities supported by NERC ................................................. 10 2.4 Structure of the report ........................................................................................... -
Climate Research 60:103
Vol. 60: 103–117, 2014 CLIMATE RESEARCH Published online June 17 doi: 10.3354/cr01222 Clim Res Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis K. Srinivasa Raju1, D. Nagesh Kumar2,3,* 1Department of Civil Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology and Science-Pilani, Hyderabad campus, India 2Center for Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, 560012 Bangalore, India 3Present address: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, 560012 Bangalore, India ABSTRACT: Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL- CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5° × 2.5°) for the climate variable ‘precipitation rate’ using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute rela- tive error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indi- cators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. -
Future Predictions of Rainfall and Temperature Using GCM and ANN for Arid Regions: a Case Study for the Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia
water Article Future Predictions of Rainfall and Temperature Using GCM and ANN for Arid Regions: A Case Study for the Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia Khalid Alotaibi 1,*, Abdul Razzaq Ghumman 1 , Husnain Haider 1, Yousry Mahmoud Ghazaw 1,2 and Md. Shafiquzzaman 1 1 Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Qassim University, Buraydah 51431, Al Qassim, Saudi Arabia; [email protected] (A.R.G.); [email protected] (H.H.); [email protected] (Y.M.G.); shafi[email protected] (M.S.) 2 Department of Irrigation and Hydraulics, College of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria 21544, Egypt * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +966-531-105-001 Received: 26 July 2018; Accepted: 13 September 2018; Published: 15 September 2018 Abstract: Future predictions of rainfall patterns in water-scarce regions are highly important for effective water resource management. Global circulation models (GCMs) are commonly used to make such predictions, but these models are highly complex and expensive. Furthermore, their results are associated with uncertainties and variations for different GCMs for various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Data-driven models including artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) can be used to predict long-term future changes in rainfall and temperature, which is a challenging task and has limitations including the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Therefore, in this research, results from various GCMs and data-driven models were investigated to study the changes in temperature and rainfall of the Qassim region in Saudi Arabia. Thirty years of monthly climatic data were used for trend analysis using Mann–Kendall test and simulating the changes in temperature and rainfall using three GCMs (namely, HADCM3, INCM3, and MPEH5) for the A1B, A2, and B1 emissions scenarios as well as two data-driven models (ANN: feed-forward-multilayer, perceptron and ANFIS) without the impact of any emissions scenario. -
The New Hadley Centre Climate Model (Hadgem1): Evaluation of Coupled Simulations
1APRIL 2006 J OHNS ET AL. 1327 The New Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadGEM1): Evaluation of Coupled Simulations T. C. JOHNS,* C. F. DURMAN,* H. T. BANKS,* M. J. ROBERTS,* A. J. MCLAREN,* J. K. RIDLEY,* ϩ C. A. SENIOR,* K. D. WILLIAMS,* A. JONES,* G. J. RICKARD, S. CUSACK,* W. J. INGRAM,# M. CRUCIFIX,* D. M. H. SEXTON,* M. M. JOSHI,* B.-W. DONG,* H. SPENCER,@ R. S. R. HILL,* J. M. GREGORY,& A. B. KEEN,* A. K. PARDAENS,* J. A. LOWE,* A. BODAS-SALCEDO,* S. STARK,* AND Y. SEARL* *Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom ϩNIWA, Wellington, New Zealand #Met Office, Exeter, and Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom @CGAM, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom &Met Office, Exeter, and CGAM, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom (Manuscript received 30 May 2005, in final form 9 December 2005) ABSTRACT A new coupled general circulation climate model developed at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre is pre- sented, and aspects of its performance in climate simulations run for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) documented with reference to previous models. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1 (HadGEM1) is built around a new atmospheric dynamical core; uses higher resolution than the previous Hadley Centre model, HadCM3; and contains several improvements in its formulation including interactive atmospheric aerosols (sulphate, black carbon, biomass burning, and sea salt) plus their direct and indirect effects. The ocean component also has higher resolution and incorporates a sea ice component more advanced than HadCM3 in terms of both dynamics and thermodynamics. -
The Dynamic Response of the Global Atmosphere-Vegetation Coupled System
THE UNIVERSITY OF READING Department of Meteorology The Dynamic Response of the Global Atmosphere-Vegetation coupled system John K. Hughes A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy October 2003 ’Declaration I confirm that this is my own work and the use of all material from other sources has been properly and fully acknowledged’ John Hughes The Dynamic Response of the Atmosphere-Vegetation coupled system Abstract Concern about future changes in the carbon cycle have highlighted the importance of a dy- namic representation of the carbon cycle in models, yet this has not been fully assessed. In this thesis, we investigate the dynamic carbon cycle model included within the Hadley Centre’s model. In order to understand the behaviour of the vegetation model a simplified model, describing the behaviour of a single plant functional type is derived. The ability of the simplified model to simulate vegetation dynamics is validated against the behaviour of the full complexity model. The dynamical properties of the simplified model are then investigated. To further investigate the dynamic response of vegetation, a 300 year climate model simulation of terrestrial vegetation re-growth from global desert has been performed. Vegetation is shown to introduce large time lags in land surface properties. This large memory in the terrestrial carbon cycle is an important result for GCM simulations. The large timescale also affects the response of existing vegetation to climatic forcings. The behaviour of the land surface in terms of source-sink transitions of atmospheric CO2 is discussed. It is found that the transitions between source and sink of CO2 are dependant on the vegetation timescales. -
Technical Manual for PRECIS
Technical Manual for PRECIS The Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system Version 2.0.0 www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis Simon Wilson, David Hassell, David Hein, Changgui Wang, Simon Tucker Richard Jones and Ruth Taylor November 16, 2015 Contents 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background .............................. 11 1.2 Objectivesandstructureofthemanual . 12 2 Hardware, operating system and software environment 13 2.1 Recommended Hardware Configurations . 13 2.2 Multi-processorsystems . 14 2.3 InstallationofLinux ......................... 14 2.4 Compilers ............................... 16 2.5 System setup before installing PRECIS . 17 3 PRECIS software and installation 19 3.1 Introduction.............................. 19 3.2 Disklayout .............................. 20 3.3 Main steps in installation process . 21 3.4 Installation of PRECIS software and data . 22 3.5 InstallationofMetOfficedata . 26 3.5.1 Boundary data supplied on hard drive . 26 3.6 Installation verification . 28 3.7 InstallationofCDAT ......................... 29 4 Experimental design and setup 30 4.1 Experimentaldesign ......................... 30 4.1.1 Regional climate model . 30 2 4.1.2 Choice of driving model and forcing scenario . 30 4.1.3 CMIP5 Driving GCMs and Representative Concentration Pathways ........................... 37 4.1.4 Simulationlength. 40 4.1.5 Initial condition ensembles . 41 4.1.6 Choice of land surface scheme . 42 4.1.7 Outputdata.......................... 42 4.1.8 Spinup............................. 42 4.1.9 Choice of region . 43 4.1.10 Land-seamask ........................ 43 4.1.11 Altitude ............................ 45 4.1.12 Altitude of inland waters . 45 4.1.13 Soil and land cover . 45 4.1.14 RCM calendar and clock . 46 4.1.15 RCM Resolution . 46 4.1.16 Outputformat ....................... -
A Description of the FAMOUS (Version XDBUA) Climate Model and Control Run
Geosci. Model Dev., 1, 53–68, 2008 www.geosci-model-dev.net/1/53/2008/ Geoscientific © Author(s) 2008. This work is distributed under Model Development the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run R. S. Smith1, J. M. Gregory1,2, and A. Osprey1 1NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute, Reading, UK 2Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK Received: 2 July 2008 – Published in Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.: 28 July 2008 Revised: 2 December 2008 – Accepted: 2 December 2008 – Published: 12 December 2008 Abstract. FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circu- (AOGCM) means that they are usually impractical for studies lation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approx- where millennial timescales are addressed or large ensembles imately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using are required. Whilst simplified models which are capable of current high performance computing facilities. It uses most quickly simulating many thousands of years of climate are of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model available (e.g. Earth System Models of Intermediate Com- of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been plexity (EMIC) Claussen et al., 2002), they often have to tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FA- omit important processes. To reduce the computational ex- MOUS is useful for climate simulations where the compu- pense of an AOGCM without neglecting any of the processes tational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, it describes, one may decrease the spatial resolution and in- either because of the length of simulation or the size of the crease the timestep of the model. -
(Hadgem1). Part I: Model Description and Global Climatology
1274 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 19 The Physical Properties of the Atmosphere in the New Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part I: Model Description and Global Climatology G. M. MARTIN,M.A.RINGER,V.D.POPE,A.JONES,C.DEARDEN, AND T. J. HINTON Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom (Manuscript received 28 April 2005, in final form 28 July 2005) ABSTRACT The atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is described and an assessment of its mean climatology presented. HadGEM1 includes substantially improved representations of physical processes, increased functionality, and higher resolution than its predecessor, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3). Major devel- opments are the use of semi-Lagrangian instead of Eulerian advection for both dynamical and tracer fields; new boundary layer, gravity wave drag, microphysics, and sea ice schemes; and major changes to the convection, land surface (including tiled surface characteristics), and cloud schemes. There is better cou- pling between the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice subcomponents and the model includes an inter- active aerosol scheme, representing both the first and second indirect effects. Particular focus has been placed on improving the processes (such as clouds and aerosol) that are most uncertain in projections of climate change. These developments lead to a significantly more realistic simulation of the processes represented, the most notable improvements being in the hydrological cycle, cloud radiative properties, the boundary layer, the tropopause structure, and the representation of tracers. 1. Introduction Lagrangian dynamical core, which has recently been implemented in the Met Office’s operational forecast Advances in our understanding of the climate sys- models. -
Anthropogenic Climate Change for 1860 to 2100 Simulated with the Hadcm3 Model Under Updated Emissions Scenarios
Climate Dynamics (2003) 20: 583–612 DOI 10.1007/s00382-002-0296-y T.C. Johns Æ J.M. Gregory Æ W.J. Ingram C.E. Johnson Æ A. Jones Æ J.A. Lowe J.F.B. Mitchell Æ D.L. Roberts Æ D.M.H. Sexton D.S. Stevenson Æ S.F.B. Tett Æ M.J. Woodage Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios Received: 29 April 2002 / Accepted: 31 October 2002 / Published online: 18 February 2003 Ó Springer-Verlag 2003 Abstract In this study we examine the anthropogenically considered, but marked drying in the mid-USA and forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 southern Europe and significantly wetter conditions for to present, and projected response to 2100, using South Asia, in June–July–August, are robust and sig- updated emissions scenarios and an improved coupled nificant. model (HadCM3) that does not use flux adjustments. We concentrate on four new Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) namely (A1FI, A2, B2, B1) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1 Introduction Third Assessment Report, considered more self-consis- tent in their socio-economic and emissions structure, There is growing expectation that increases in the con- and therefore more policy relevant, than older scenarios centrations of greenhouse gases arising from human ac- like IS92a. We include an interactive model representa- tivity will lead to substantial changes in climate in the tion of the anthropogenic sulfur cycle and both direct twenty first century. Indeed, there is already evidence and indirect forcings from sulfate aerosols, but omit the that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases second indirect forcing effect through cloud lifetimes. -
Comparison of Hadcm3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2. 1 in Prediction The
American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2018, Vol. 6, No. 3, 93-100 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajcea/6/3/1 ©Science and Education Publishing DOI:10.12691/ajcea-6-3-1 Comparison of HadCM3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 in Prediction the Climate Change in Taleghan River Basin Arash YoosefDoost1,*, Icen YoosefDoost2, Hossein Asghari3, Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian1 1Civil Engineering Department, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran 2Water Science and Engineering Department, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran 3Environment Department, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran *Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Climate change is a complex and long-term global atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon which can be influenced by natural factors such as volcanoes, solar, oceans and atmosphere activities which they have interactions between or may be as a result of human activities. Atmospheric general circulation models are developed for simulation of current climate of the earth and are able to predict the earth's future climate change. In this paper, the performance of GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO Mk3 and HadCM3 AOGCMs were assessed and evaluated in the study of the climate change effects on temperature and precipitation in Taleghan basin. The results show that HadCM3 model in comparison with CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 models has indicated the better performance in this region. Keywords: Atmosphere General Circulation Models, AOGCM, CSIRO Mk3, HadCM3, Climate Change, Taleghan Region Cite This Article: Arash YoosefDoost, Icen YoosefDoost, Hossein Asghari, and Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian, “Comparison of HadCM3, CSIRO Mk3 and GFDL CM2.1 in Prediction the Climate Change in Taleghan River Basin.” American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, vol. -
GCM Simulations of the Climate in the Central United States
1016 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 18 GCM Simulations of the Climate in the Central United States KENNETH E. KUNKEL AND XIN-ZHONG LIANG Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, Illinois (Manuscript received 30 April 2004, in final form 12 August 2004) ABSTRACT A diagnostic analysis of relationships between central U.S. climate characteristics and various flow and scalar fields was used to evaluate nine global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). To facilitate identification of physical mechanisms causing biases, data from 21 models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) were also used for certain key analyses. Most models reproduce basic features of the circulation, temperature, and precipitation patterns in the central United States, although no model exhibits small differences from the observationally based data for all characteristics in all seasons. Model ensemble means generally produce better agreement with the observationally based data than any single model. A fall precipitation deficiency, found in all AMIP and CMIP models except the third-generation Hadley Centre CGCM (HadCM3), appears to be related in part to slight biases in the flow on the western flank of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. In the model mean, the ridge at 850 hPa is displaced slightly to the north and to the west, resulting in weaker southerly flow into the central United States. The CMIP doubled-CO2 transient runs show warming (1°–5°C) for all models and seasons and variable precipitation changes over the central United States. Temperature (precipitation) changes are larger (mostly less) than the variations that are observed in the twentieth century and the model variations in the control simulations.