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Credit Suisse 27 Great Brands of Tomorrow 2010.Pdf 25 February 2010 Global Equity Research Multi Industry Americas/United States Great Brands of Tomorrow Credit Suisse STRATEGY Research Institute The Power of Brand Investing An underappreciated investment thesis. There are few true competitive Thought leadership from advantages in modern industry: scale, proprietary technology, monopolies, and network externalities come to mind. We believe brand is an equally powerful Credit Suisse Research and even more sustainable advantage, but one often ignored by financial and the world’s markets owing to its intangible nature. Our research indicates that companies focused on brand building consistently generate outsized long-term growth, foremost experts profitability, and returns. An equal-weighted stock index of companies that spend at least 2% of sales on marketing outperformed the S&P 500 by more Research Analysts than 400 basis points annually since 1997; the top quintile of these companies Omar Saad outperformed the market by an amazing 17% per year. 212 325 3656 [email protected] The Credit Suisse brand framework. Our brand filters help determine how and when to invest in brand stocks by: (1) identifying industry- and company- Spencer Hill 212 538 2266 specific conditions necessary for brand success; (2) understanding the brand [email protected] lifecycle and key inflection points. Using case-study analysis of dozens of brand stories from the past century, we found that most brands follow a similar arc Product Coordinators* with five distinct stages: emerge, hit the wall, transform and proliferate, Ashley Van der Waag dominate, and reinvent. While early-stage brands are exciting and offer the Katheryn Iorio highest potential return, they can be risky. However, companies transforming from niche player into a powerful brand that can proliferate across new markets Lauren Macintosh and categories offer investors highly attractive returns, and this is also typically the brand lifecycle stage where the largest absolute market value is created. Our picks. Using our framework and global network of analysts, we identified 27 Great Brands of Tomorrow at various stages of development that we believe will significantly outperform the market over the next three to five years as they build and leverage brand equity to grow in size, scale, and profitability. "Products are made in the factory, but brands are created in the mind. " - Walter Landor DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 25 February 2010 Table of Contents Executive Summary 4 Identifying High Potential Brands 13 Industry Matters 15 What Is a Brand? 18 Outlook for Brand Investing 20 How to Invest in Brands 26 Emerging Brands—Strong Returns if One Picks the Winners 32 Transform & Proliferate—When Brands Generate Huge Value 42 Hitting the Wall—Why Some Brands Fail to Make the Leap 57 Breaking through the Wall 63 Achieving Global Iconic Status: Time to Sell the Stock 66 Brand Failures 71 Brand Reinvention: Often a Great Investment Opportunity 75 Brands in Healthcare 79 Brands of Tomorrow 83 Alibaba.com Limited (1688.HK): China’s B2B Online Marketplace 85 Almarai Co (2280.SE): A Danone in the Making 92 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Scale and Share in E-Commerce 103 Apple Inc. (AAPL): Dominant Brand with Room for Growth 110 BIM (BIMAS.IS): Turkey’s Price Leader Taking the Next Step 122 Capitec Bank (CPIJ.J): Challenging Established Banks 130 China Merchants Bank-H (3968.HK): Strongest Retail Bank Franchise 143 Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd (COMAC; Private): 152 Enfamil: A Brand That Translates to Any Language 162 Facebook (Private): The World’s Social Network 169 Hyundai Motor (005380.KS): Poised for Increased Penetration 174 Indian Hotels (IHTL.BO): A Segmented Play on Indian Growth 182 Julius Baer (BAER1.VX): Leading Independent Pure-Play Private Bank 187 Li Ning Co., Ltd. (2331.HK): The Authentic Asian Sports Brand? 195 Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHM.BO): Indian Brand Takes on the Overseas Auto Market 202 MercadoLibre (MELI): Latin America’s eBay, Paypal, and Craigslist? 208 Mercedes-Benz: Hidden Value in Mercedes and Trucks 214 Polo Ralph Lauren (RL): A Transcendent & Leveragable Brand 222 Sonova Holding (SOON.S): A Hearing Healthcare Company 235 Swatch Group (UHR.VX): Keeping Its Spot at the Top 244 Tiffany & Co. (TIF): Seizing the Global Opportunity 252 Tingyi (0322.HK): A Power Player in China F&B 262 Trader Joe’s (Private): Proliferating in the United States 268 Tsingtao Brewery H (0168.HK): A Top Beverage Brand in China 274 Under Armour (UA): The Next Nike? 279 Uniqlo: Poised for Massive Expansion in Asian Markets 288 Yakult Honsha (2267): Protecting the Health of People Around the World 293 Great Brands of Tomorrow 2 25 February 2010 Exhibit 1: Contact List GLOBAL HEAD OF RESEARCH EUROPE Stefano Natella 212 325 4217 [email protected] Aerospace & Defense Ross Cowley 44 20 7888 0275 [email protected] PRODUCT COORDINATORS Automobiles & Components Ashley Van der Waag 212 538 2908 [email protected] Arndt Ellinghorst 44 20 7888 0295 [email protected] Katheryn Iorio 44 20 7883 3773 [email protected] Stuart Pearson 44 20 7888 0765 [email protected] Lauren MacIntosh 212 538 0892 [email protected] Nihal Shah 44 20 7888 3270 [email protected] Diversified Financial Services UNITED STATES Thomas Kalbermatten 41 44 333 0548 [email protected] Textiles Apparel & Footwear Rupak Ghose 44 20 7888 4552 [email protected] Omar Saad 212 325 3656 [email protected] Healthcare Spencer Hill 212 538 2266 [email protected] Matthew Weston 44 20 7888 3690 [email protected] Advertising/Broadcasting Martin Whitbread 44 20 7888 0305 [email protected] Peter Stabler 415 249 7923 [email protected] Luxury Goods Aerospace & Defense Patrick Jnglin 41 44 334 6077 [email protected] Robert Spingarn 212 538 1895 [email protected] Rogerio Fujimori 44 20 7888 0889 [email protected] Agribusiness Medical Supplies & Devices Robert Moskow 212 538 3095 [email protected] Christoph Gretler 41 44 333 7944 [email protected] William Sawyer 212 325 5880 [email protected] Scott Bardo 44 20 7888 0154 [email protected] Arpine Kocharyan 212 538 5242 [email protected] Autos & Auto Parts NON-JAPAN ASIA Chris Ceraso 212 538 4529 [email protected] Autos - South Korea Beverages Henry Kwon 822 3707 3732 [email protected] Carlos Laboy 212 538 4337 [email protected] Seungwoo Hong 822 3707 3795 [email protected] IT Hardware Consumer - China Bill Shope 212 325 1804 [email protected] Catherine Lim 852 2101 6323 [email protected] Elizabeth Borbolla 212 325 5887 [email protected] Consumer -India Vlad Rom 415 249 7925 [email protected] Govindarajan Chellappa 9122 6777 3715 [email protected] Thompson Wu 212 325 7160 [email protected] Rajasa K 9122 6777 3932 [email protected] Media & Internet Financials - Taiwan & China Spencer Wang 212 325 9624 [email protected] Sherry Lin 852 2101 7609 [email protected] Kenneth Sena 212 325 3687 [email protected] Daisy Wu 852 2101 7167 [email protected] Retail Food & Drug Internet & Telecom Sector - China Edward Kelly 212 325 3241 [email protected] Wallace Cheung 852 2101 7090 [email protected] Jay Carlington 212 538 8038 [email protected] Cristina Pereira 212 325 1372 [email protected] JAPAN Softlines Retail Food, Beverage and Tobacco Paul Lejuez 212 325 9028 [email protected] Yoshiyasu Okihira 813 4550 7301 [email protected] Tracy Kogan 212 538 4692 [email protected] Julie Harris 212 538 8593 [email protected] EMEA Consumer - Middle East LATIN AMERICA Digvijay Singh 44 20 7888 6091 [email protected] Consumer Victoria Petrova 7 495 967 8393 [email protected] Marcel Moraes 55 11 3841 6302 [email protected] Financials - South Africa Vanessa Quiroga 52 55 52 83 8939 [email protected] Sindi Daniso 27 11 384 2218 [email protected] Walter Jacobs 27 11 384 2217 [email protected] Retailers - Turkey Onur Muminoglu 90 212 349 0454 [email protected] Victoria Petrova 7 495 967 8393 [email protected] Special thanks to Jessica Boer of Beacon Business Intelligence for her work and brand expertise in support of this report. Great Brands of Tomorrow 3 25 February 2010 Executive Summary 27 Great Brands of Tomorrow We have created a portfolio of 24 next great brand stocks (plus three private company picks), identified by our framework and Credit Suisse analysts as stocks likely to outperform over the next three to five years as they grow in size, scale, and brand equity with consumers. Credit Suisse has created a Delta One basket that tracks an equal- weighted investment in the stocks (Ticker: CSGLBRND). Exhibit 2: 27 Exciting Brands of Tomorrow Brand Ticker Region Description Vast Chinese Business-to-Business eCommerce site poised to leverage its first mover advantage (and memorable name) Alibaba.com Limited 1688.HK NJA as it shifts its model from subscription- to transaction-based.
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