]
/DQGWRWKH1RUWKRI*LOGHQ:D\+DUORZ 7UDQVSRUW$VVHVVPHQW
Persimmon Homes, Barratt Strategic, Taylor Wimpey Developments
January 2011
QM
Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3
Remarks Draft
Date January 2011
Prepared by T. Mabelson
Signature
Checked by B F Weaver
Signature
Authorised by J M Hutchins
Signature
Project number 11110881-PTA
File reference Q:\Harlow_Gilden Way_Harlow DC 0881\TEXT\REPORTS\Transport Assessment\080506 Transport Assessment\080612 Transport Assessment.doc
WSP Development & Transportation has prepared this report for Persimmon Homes, Barratt Strategic and Taylor Wimpey Developments, the conditions of which were set out in its appointment for consulting engineering services by the Client. WSP Development & Transportation shall not be responsible for the use of the report or its contents for any purposes other than those for which it was prepared and provided. Should the Client require to pass copies of the report to other parties for information, the whole of the report should be so copied, but no liability shall be incurred or warranty extended by WSP Development & Transportation to any other parties in connection with this report without explicit written agreement thereto by WSP Development & Transportation.
WSP Development & Transportation is part of WSP UK Limited.
WSP Development and Transportation WSP House 70 Chancery Lane London WC2A 1AF
Tel: +44 (0)20 7314 5000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7314 5111 http://www.wspgroup.com
WSP UK Limited | Registered Address WSP House, 70 Chancery Lane, London, WC2A 1AF, UK | Reg No. 01383511 England | WSP Group plc | Offices worldwide
Contents
,QWURGXFWLRQ
%DVHOLQH6LWHDQG7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ&RQWH[W
%DVHOLQH6XVWDLQDEOH$FFHVVLELOLW\
%DVHOLQH+LJKZD\7UDIILF&RQGLWLRQV
3URSRVHG'HYHORSPHQW
3URSRVHG'HYHORSPHQW$VVHVVPHQW
3URSRVHG'HYHORSPHQW0LWLJDWLRQ
6XPPDU\DQG&RQFOXVLRQV
)LJXUHV )LJXUH 6LWH/RFDWLRQ3ODQ )LJXUH $PHQLWLHV3ODQ )LJXUH ([LVWLQJ&RQQHFWLYLW\ )LJXUH ([LVWLQJ%XV5RXWHV )LJXUH ,QGLFDWLYH0DVWHUSODQ'UDZLQJ )LJXUH ([LVWLQJ5RDG1HWZRUNDQG-XQFWLRQV )LJXUH 3URSRVHG5RDG1HWZRUNDQG-XQFWLRQ,PSURYHPHQWV )LJXUH 3URSRVHG&RQQHFWLYLW\ $SSHQGLFHV $SSHQGL[$ $FFLGHQW'DWD $SSHQGL[% 7UDIILF6XUYH\V $SSHQGL[& 7ULS*HQHUDWLRQ'DWD $SSHQGL[' 7UDIILF0RGHO $SSHQGL[( ([LVWLQJ-XQFWLRQV $SSHQGL[) 3URSRVHG-XQFWLRQV $SSHQGL[* $5&$'<$QDO\VLV
1 Introduction
,1752'8&7,21 1.1.1 WSP Development and Transportation has been commissioned by Persimmon Homes, Barratt Strategic and Taylor Wimpey Developments (the Clients) to prepare a Transport Assessment (TA) which considers Travel, Transportation and Traffic issues associated with a Residential led development scheme in Harlow. The site is located north of the B183 Gilden Way, as shown on Figure 1. 1.1.2 Harlow District Council (HDC) is the Local Planning Authority and Essex County Council (ECC) is the Local Highway Authority. 1.1.3 The site area is approximately 38Ha and comprises undeveloped space including Greenbelt. 1.1.4 For the purposes of this assessment, the proposed development is assumed to include:
1200 residential units, 33% of which will be affordable
A primary school
A small neighbourhood/community centre
A new vehicular access onto the Sheering Road roundabout junction (on Gilden Way)
A secondary vehicular access onto Gilden Way
Areas of open space and play areas
352-(&7%$&.*5281' 1.2.1 The proposed development site was the subject of a Public Inquiry in May 2004 as part of the Local Plan formulation process. At that time the feasibility of the development in terms of its potential transportation and highways impact was considered, and a robust view has taken of the possible traffic generation and vehicle movements to and from the site. 1.2.2 In the Proof of Evidence submitted by WSP on behalf of the Clients it was estimated that a potential development of 950 residential units plus some community uses could be accommodated on the site, with some traffic capacity mitigation measures probably required at junctions west of the site. This analysis is revised in this TA using more up-to-date information regarding the quantum, type and tenure of residential units to be provided on the site. 1.2.3 Traffic generation, distribution and assignment have been revised and the impact of the development on the local road network analysed in more detail. Possible junction improvements and mitigation measures have likewise been identified in more detail and are described in this document and shown in Figure 7. 1.2.4 A Sustainability Assessment of the site was carried out in 2001, reviewing access to the site for pedestrians and cyclists, and provision of public transport. The assessment has been revised and updated for this report. 1.2.5 Much of the assessment carried out in this TA was undertaken between 2006 and 2008 and has been updated or validated to support a 2011 planning application where appropriate.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 1 Transport Assessment
5(32576758&785( 1.3.1 This TA has been prepared based on the national guidance set out in ‘Guidance on Transport Assessment, DfT, 2007’. The remainder of this report is set out as follows:
Section 2 summarises the background information including the location of the site, and the existing highway conditions, the accident history of the road network, and the local travel characteristics;
Section 3 details the existing sustainability and accessibility of the site including pedestrian, cycle, bus, and train access, and the accessibility of the nearby amenities;
Section 4 summarises the traffic surveys that were undertaken to inform the traffic impact assessment;
Section 5 details the proposed development including trip generation, background traffic growth including committed developments, and parking;
Section 6 summarises the link and junction capacity assessments undertaken;
Section 7 outlines the proposed mitigation measures including improvements to pedestrian, cycle and public transport accessibility, and improvements to the capacity of the highway network; and
Conclusions are drawn in Section 8.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 2 Transport Assessment
2 Baseline Site and Transportation Context
,1752'8&7,21 2.1.1 This section describes baseline conditions at the site, sets out the site’s location, describes the local road network, considers the prevailing local road safety conditions through a review of Personal Injury Accident data, and reviews the baseline local travel characteristics based on data collected in the 2001 Census.
6,7(/2&$7,21 2.2.1 The location of the proposed development is shown in Figure 1. The Gilden Way development site is situated on the north-eastern edge of Harlow, between the eastern suburbs of the town and the M11. The M11 junction 7 and M25 junction 27 are about 6.5km and 14.5km south of the site respectively. 2.2.2 The site is located north of the B183 Gilden Way, which links Harlow to Chelmsford to the east and London Stansted Airport to the north. West of the site Gilden Way intersects with London Road which serves new residential areas at Newhall and Church Langley to the south; and with the A414. The A414 junction provides access to the west into Harlow New Town, north to Bishops Stortford and south to the M11 junction 7. 2.2.3 The A414 is sometimes used as a diversionary route for traffic from the M25 between junctions 21 and 27. The A414 provides a loop from Junction 7 of the M11, past Harlow, Hertford, Welwyn Garden City, Hatfield and St Albans. It is known that traffic diverted off the M25 onto the A414 causes significant additional congestion on various sections of this route. Traffic conditions on the M25 in this area were therefore monitored during surveys relating to the Gilden Way development. No significantly abnormal traffic conditions were observed. 2.2.4 The site is bounded to the east by Marsh Lane, a narrow, unlit private lane approximately 4m wide that leads north to Gibberds Garden and a private residence on the north east boundary of the site. From the end of Marsh Lane a footpath continues north along the eastern boundary of the site to pass under the railway at the north eastern corner. The railway bounds the site to the north; to the west a stream separates the site from Harlowbury and Old Harlow. The local amenities and facilities are shown in Figure 2 and the connectivity is shown in Figure 3.
/2&$/52$'1(7:25. 2.3.1 The southern edge of the site is adjacent to Gilden Way (B183), from which the proposed development would be accessed. Gilden Way is a wide single carriageway road of varying width from 7-8m, with 40 mph speed limit and approximately 12m street lighting. The site frontage is separated from the road by a drainage ditch and verge. On the south side of the road a verge separates the road from playing fields. 2.3.2 To the east of the site Gilden Way (B183) heads towards Sheering and Hatfield Heath. West of the site, Gilden Way (B183) heads towards Old Harlow, Harlow Town Centre and the A414 which links to the M11 to the south. West of the site Gilden Way has wide verges and a poor quality 1-2m wide footway on the northern side.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 3 Transport Assessment
2.3.3 The key junctions and road links in the area are as follows, and are summarised in Figure 6:
Sheering Road roundabout junction (with Gilden Way)
London Road roundabout junction (with Gilden Way, First Avenue, London Road and Station Road)
First Avenue roundabout junction (with First Avenue and A414)
Edinburgh Way roundabout junction (with A414 and Cambridge Way)
Church Langley Way roundabout junction (with A414 and Church Langley Way)
Second Avenue roundabout junction (with A414 and Second Avenue) 2.3.4 Station Road west of Old Harlow is calmed by chicanes, speed humps and a mini-roundabout at the junction with Wayre Street. There are no other areas of traffic calming in the vicinity of the site. 2.3.5 A pelican crossing to the east of the junction with Mulberry Green provides a crossing point on the National Cycle Route 1 which passes through Old Harlow and on to Churchgate Street. However as the crossing is not a Toucan, cyclists must dismount. Also, railings on the south side of the road force cyclists to dismount. Wider pedestrian facilities are described in Section 3.
$&&,'(17'$7$ 2.4.1 Personal Injury Accident data has been obtained for the road network affected by the proposed development for the 5 year period from 1st November 2005 to 31st October 2010. Data was obtained for the B183 Gilden Way between the A414 and a point approximately 500m east of the proposed site entrance; also for the A414 between Edinburgh Way and the A1025. The full data set and map is attached in Appendix A. 2.4.2 The table below shows the recorded annual accident rate at junctions within the study area, and compares them with the accident rate expected at these junctions as calculated by a COBA evaluation (Source DMRB Chapter 5).
7$%/(3(5621$/,1-85<$&&,'(176 COBA Accidents Accident Location Slight Serious Fatal Accident per Year Rate Sheering Road 0 0 0 0 0.3 First Avenue 12 1 1 2.8 4.9 Edinburgh Way 3 0 0 0.2 4.3 Church Langley Way 4 3 0 1.4 3.7 Second Avenue 12 1 0 2.6 5.7 Mulberry Green 4 1 0 1.0 0.9* Other Location 17 8 0 - - Total 55 14 1 - -
Note: Accident prediction based on 2004 MCC Survey Flows growthed to AADT based on 2007 ATC Data. Accident Rates from ‘The COBA Manual, Section 5 The Value of Accidents at Junctions’. * AADT of 2000 vpd on Mulberry Green is estimated as there is no count data on this road
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 4 Transport Assessment
2.4.3 In total there were 72 accidents over the 5 year study period with only one fatal accident and 14 serious accidents. The accidents resulted in injuries to 10 motorcyclists, 1 cyclist and 11 pedestrians. 2.4.4 The accident data shows that a higher proportion of accidents occurred at junctions than on the link roads, as may be expected. The majority of accidents away from junctions occurred on the A414 and were caused by driver error, sudden braking and vehicles following too closely misjudging speed. At junctions on the A414 most accidents were due to shunts. Comparison of the recorded rates with COBA analysis (above) shows that all the junctions have accident rates lower than those predicted by COBA, with the exception of the Mulberry Green priority junction. No accidents were recorded at the Sheering Road roundabout junction, from which the site would be accessed. 2.4.5 Five accidents occurred at the priority junction at Mulberry Green, approximately 350m south-west of the proposed site entrance. These occurred chiefly due to human error: poor turning manoeuvres, failure to look properly and failure to slow to allow oncoming traffic to turn in or out of the junction. One accident resulted in serious injury caused by a vehicle turning right into Mulberry Green and crossing the path of an oncoming vehicle travelling from west to east. 2.4.6 A single fatality occurred during the three year period for which data was obtained. This at the London Road roundabout junction when a car overshot the junction when turning and collided with the central island. The accident report noted the permanent road signing was defective or obscured. Additionally the road surface was damp. 2.4.7 Two serious accidents were recorded outside Mark Hall school on Mandela Avenue caused by pupils running out onto the road, including one that climbed over guard railing. 2.4.8 In summary, accidents on the road network surrounding the site are in general considered to indicate no inherent traffic safety problems. Accidents are generally caused by human error rather than road design or features. The higher number of accidents observed at the Church Langley and Second Avenue roundabout junctions is likely to be due to the dual carriageway approaches leading to a greater potential for conflict of movement. Apart from the Mulberry Green junction all other junctions have accident rates below expectation. 2.4.9 The junction of Gilden Way with Mulberry Green shows some indication of common causal factors of accidents at the central right turn lane/pedestrian crossing configuration, with one serious accident at the site as well as a number of slight injury accidents. Improvements to Gilden Way and facilities for pedestrians and cyclists are proposed as a part of the development, and are described in Section 7.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 5 Transport Assessment
/2&$/75$9(/&+$5$&7(5,67,&6 2.5.1 ‘Method of Travel to Work’ data for the resident population has been extracted from the 2001 Census. Data has been collected for Old Harlow ward and Harlow District, in which the site is located, and additionally for the adjacent Church Langley ward for comparison.
7$%/(&(1686'$7$0(7+2'2)75$9(/72:25. Old Harlow Church Langley Harlow District Ward Ward Rail 9% 13% 7% Bus 3% 3% 5% Car Driver 66% 73% 64% Car Passenger 7% 5% 9% Motorcycle 1% 1% 1% Bicycle 3% 1% 3% On foot 10% 3% 11%
Note: Resident Population 2.5.2 The data shows that the mode split for residents of Old Harlow Ward for travel to work is in general comparable to the average for Harlow District. Rail use is higher than the average, and bus use lower, which may be a reflection of the relative proximity of Old Harlow to a rail station (Harlow Mill), and the lower provision of frequent bus services. 2.5.3 Car use (as driver) in Church Langley ward is significantly higher than in Old Harlow ward. The proportion of rail use from Church Langley ward is also higher than in Old Harlow ward, however as the ward is not within walking distance of a station; it is probable that most train trips to work are multimodal, with journeys to the station made by car. It is concluded that the proportion of trips by car is higher to/from Church Langley than Old Harlow. 2.5.4 The 2001 Census was further interrogated for car ownership statistics.
7$%/(&(1686'$7$&$52:1(56+,3 Old Harlow Church Langley Harlow District Ward Ward No car or van 22% 5% 25% 1 car or van 41% 46% 46% 2 cars or vans 28% 43% 24% 3 cars or vans 6% 5% 4% 4 or more cars or vans 2% 0% 1% Average Car Ownership 1.25 1.50 1.12
2.5.5 The data shows that car ownership in Old Harlow Ward is slightly higher than the district average. The proportion of households with 2 or more cars is 7% higher in Old Harlow than in the whole district.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 6 Transport Assessment
2.5.6 It can be seen that average car ownership is noticeably higher in Church Langley, with a significantly higher proportion of households with 2 cars. These statistics imply that car travel will be higher to and from the Church Langley ward, which is corroborated by the Travel to Work statistics.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 7 Transport Assessment
3 Baseline Sustainable Accessibility
,1752'8&7,21 3.1.1 This section includes a review of sustainable accessibility, including walk, cycle, bus and rail routes, services, and stops, and accessible local facilities. This section first considers the principal attractors for trips from the site, and then the modes and routes by which these can be accessed.
$&&(66,%,/,7<2)/2&$/)$&,/,7,(6$1'$0(1,7,(6 3.2.1 A number of amenities are available in the local area, many of which are in Old Harlow around a 1000m walk to the west of the site. These are superimposed onto Figure 2. Old Harlow can be accessed on foot via the footpath over the site of the medieval village (Forebury Land) at Harlowbury; also via a path to the rear of The Oxleys; and informally via a concrete bridge opposite Curteys Close. All of these routes link to the existing on-site public rights of way. Railings or similar measures presently impede use by cyclists.
(GXFDWLRQ 3.2.2 There are several schools within walking distance of the site. This includes two secondary schools and three primary schools:
Harlowbury Primary (200m);
Fawbert and Barnards Primary (1100m);
Mark Hall Secondary (1300m);
Churchgate C of E Primary (800m); and
St Nicholas Primary and Secondary Independent School (1000m); 3.2.3 There are additional schools and a Further Education College in the wider Harlow area.
5HWDLODQG&RPPHUFLDO 3.2.4 Old Harlow is around 1000m walk from the site and includes a range of shopping facilities including a supermarket, a post office and other small shops. Some other local shops are available in Churchgate Street Village, south of the site. 3.2.5 A large industrial area is within walking distance of the site, near Harlow Mill Station. 3.2.6 West and north of the A414 there are large retail and industrial areas offering convenience shopping at a large Tesco accessed from Edinburgh Way, and employment at Riverway Mead Park and Maple Industrial Estate.
+HDOWK 3.2.7 There is a dental surgery, Health Centre, Opticians and a Pharmacy in the Old Harlow neighbourhood centre.
(QWHUWDLQPHQWDQG5HFUHDWLRQ 3.2.8 A number of open spaces are available within walking distance of the site, and additionally Old Harlow includes a Library, again within walking distance.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 8 Transport Assessment
%86$&&(66,%,/,7< 3.3.1 Eight bus routes are accessible within walking distance* of the site, as shown in Figure 4. These are accessible from four nearby bus stops. In order of proximity:
Gilden Way (near the Oxleys), within a 500m** walk of the site, Routes 7 and 59;
Old Road (near St. Johns Avenue), within a 500m** walk of the site, Routes 8, M7 and M8;
Old Harlow Post Office, within a 1500m** walk of the site, Routes 500 and 501; and
Harlow Mill Station, within a 1500m** walk of the site, Routes 333 and 510.
* Based on PPG13 Para 75 which recommends 2,000m as an acceptable walking distance ** Measured from the site entrance 3.3.2 Most existing bus services are operated by Arriva and those stopping within walking distance of the site are summarised below.
7$%/(%866(59,&(6 Frequency (services per hour) Bus stop No. Route Operator closest to Daytime Saturday Sunday site Sumners Farm – Harlow Bus 7 1 1 0 Arriva The Oxleys Station – Churchgate Street 8 Bus Station – Old Harlow 4 4 0 Arriva Old Road Old Harlow - Town Centre - Old Harlow 12 Passmores - Kingsmoor 0 0 1 Regal Post Office (Circular) 59 Bus Station - Chelmsford 1 1 0 Arriva The Oxleys Bus Station - Old Harlow – Old Harlow 333 1 1 0 Arriva Bishop’s Stortford Post Office Old Harlow 500 Old Harlow – Epping 3 3 0 Arriva Post Office Old Harlow – Epping – Old Harlow 501 1 1 1 Arriva Brentwood – Warley Post Office Old Harlow 510 Bus Station – Stansted Airport 4 4 1 Arriva Post Office S M Old Harlow 18 Bishop’s Stortford – Old Harlow 2 2 0 Coaches Post Office
Note: Service Frequencies specified in Major Direction 3.3.3 Gilden Way (near the Oxleys) is provided with shelters and bus timetables on both sides of the road, and pedestrians may cross via a narrow subway, or the nearby pelican crossing at Mulberry Green. Pedestrians have also been observed crossing at- grade over the B183. A total of 2 buses per hour pass the site at The Oxleys, and a total of 17 per hour during peak periods are accessible at the nearby stops. 3.3.4 A school bus service number 322 also passes the site on the B183, which calls at schools between Old Harlow, Newport and Saffron Walden.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 9 Transport Assessment
5$,/$&&(66,%,/,7< 3.4.1 Harlow has two well served rail stations on the Cambridge to London Liverpool Street line operated by National Express East Anglia. Trains also run on the line between Stratford (London) and Stansted Airport. 3.4.2 Harlow Town rail station is approximately 1.6 km north of Harlow town centre and 4km west of the site. The station may be accessed by bus or on foot from the town. A car park with 704 spaces is provided, with a £6.20 daily charge and cycle parking provision. The station ticket office is staffed during weekdays and Saturdays and has waiting, refreshment and toilet facilities. 3.4.3 Trains to and from London Liverpool Street depart 4 times per hour, with 6 departures in the AM peak hour. Typically there are 2 departures per hour to Cambridge, London Stratford and Stansted Airport. There is an additional service to Cambridge during the morning and evening peak hours. 3.4.4 Harlow Mill station is situated north of Old Harlow village, around a 1500m walk of the site. The station has 29 car parking spaces including 1 disabled space and cycle parking for about 30 cycles. The station ticket office is staffed during weekday mornings and there is a seating area, but no waiting room or toilet facilities at the station. 3.4.5 The route to the station from the site is currently via either Old Road, or Curteys and Priory Road. At the western end of Priory Road access can be gained to an underpass under the A414, which leads into the station. This underpass is adjacent to the London bound platform separated by railing. The underpass is approximately 2 metres wide and is lit within. 3.4.6 London trains stop twice hourly at Harlow Mill during both peak hours and during the day. Trains to London Stratford and Stansted Airport stop once an hour during the day and evening but not to Stansted Airport during peak hours.
7$%/(5$,/6(59,&(6 Train frequency per hour Destination AM Peak PM Peak Daytime London Liverpool Street 6 4 4 Cambridge 3 3 2 Harlow Town London Stratford 0 0 2 Stansted Airport 2 2 2 London Liverpool Street 2 2 2 Cambridge 2 2 2 Harlow Mill London Stratford 1 1 1 Stansted Airport 0 0 1
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 10 Transport Assessment
7$%/(-2851(<7,0(6)520+$5/2:0,//67$7,21 Destination Time (minutes) Harlow Town 3 Bishops Stortford 10 Stansted Airport 23 Tottenham Hale (link to London Underground) 34 London Stratford (link to London Underground, DLR and Kent 48 high speed rail services) London Liverpool Street 41 Cambridge 48
3.4.7 The above tables show that stations at Stansted Airport, Cambridge and London are all within a reasonable commuter journey from Harlow.
:$/.$&&(66,%,/,7< 3.5.1 The most direct pedestrian route from the site to Old Harlow is via the existing public right of way which runs east-west across Harlowbury medieval village (Forebury Land) between the site and Old Road. The site is bounded on the west by a stream which must be crossed by those travelling to Old Road from the site on this route. 3.5.2 There are two footbridges over the stream just north of The Oxleys. One of these consists of a masonry arch and is approximately 2 metres in width. The second slightly to the south is a makeshift bridge consisting of a concrete section and scaffolding poles, it is less than a metre in width. A third informal crossing is possible to the north of Curteys, where a concrete slab over the stream enables access to the site through a gap in the fence. 3.5.3 A poorly maintained footpath on the north side of the B183 links Station Road with the Oxleys. A public right of way between The Oxleys and the site is accessible for pedestrians only. 3.5.4 Two subways under the B183 accessible to pedestrians only are located opposite St Marks comprehensive school and at The Oxleys bus stop. The subways are prone to litter and graffiti, with poor visibility, and pedestrians have been observed crossing the road at grade at both locations during peak hours. 3.5.5 Harlow Mill station can be accessed from Old Harlow village via a 2m walkway under the A414. The walkway is lit both inside and out and is separated from the railway line by a fence. 3.5.6 There is no direct pedestrian route from the site to Churchgate and the shops/schools at this village south of Gilden Way. However there is a pelican crossing east of Mulberry Green which provides access for pedestrians and cyclists on National Cycle Route 1 between Old Harlow and Churchgate.
&<&/($&&(66,%,/,7< 3.6.1 There is an extensive cycle network throughout Harlow, linking to the residential estates to the south and east of the town centre.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 11 Transport Assessment
3.6.2 National Cycle Route number 1 runs east-west to the south of the site between Harlow town and Chelmsford. The route is traffic free between the west end of Old Harlow town centre and Harlow town centre via Netteswell Road. East of Old Harlow town centre the route is on road and routes along Sheering Road and Moor Hall Lane, south of Gilden Way. Figure 3 shows existing cycle routes in Harlow. 3.6.3 Available local cycle routes near the site include:
London Road between Gilden Way and Church Langley (an off road dedicated lane on the east side London Road).
Mandela Avenue to the west of Gilden Way. This route then links south to Mark Hall South and Netteswell..
Edinburgh Way to the west of the A414 leading to Harlow Town rail station (an off road dedicated lane) 3.6.4 There have been some recent improvements to the cycle network in Harlow. This includes the provision of additional cycle stands at Harlow Town station and improved signage to existing cycle paths.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 12 Transport Assessment
4 Baseline Highway Traffic Conditions
,1752'8&7,21 4.1.1 This section describes baseline highway traffic conditions on the road network in the vicinity of the site, including summaries of surveys of local traffic flow undertaken across the period from 1999 to 2010
75$)),&6859(<6 4.2.1 Manual Classified counts were carried out on the local road network in east Harlow on Thursday April 1st 2004 during peak hours from 0730-0930 and 1630-1830. The data gathered during this time was used to inform the Strategic Traffic Study that assessed the potential impact of a development on the site on the local road network. The surveys included turning movement counts at the following junctions around Harlow:
Sheering Road roundabout junction (main site access);
London Road roundabout junction;
First Avenue roundabout junction;
Edinburgh Way roundabout junction;
Church Langley Way roundabout junction; and
Second Avenue roundabout junction. 4.2.2 The location of these junctions relative to the site is shown in Figure 6.
75$)),&6859(<6 4.3.1 Additional surveys were carried out in 2007 between 8th and 14th January 2007 for comparison with the 2004 flows; ATCs were placed at the following locations:
All arms of the First Avenue roundabout junction; and
Sheering Road roundabout junction (main site access). 4.3.2 The below table compares the 2004 and 2007 traffic survey results and shows that the 2007 survey recorded generally lower flows.
7$%/($1'75$)),&6859(<&203$5,621 AM PM Link 2004 2007 %age 2004 2007 %age MCC ATC Change MCC ATC Change A414 (between First Avenue and 1963 1589 -19% 1983 1943 -2% Edinburgh Way Junctions) First Avenue (between First Avenue 1851 1764 -5% 1545 1543 0% and London Road junctions) A414 (between First Avenue and 2369 2074 -12% 2171 2132 -2% Church Langley Junctions) First Avenue (west of First Avenue 1831 1811 -1% 2210 1959 -11% junctions) Gilden Way (between London Road 1792 1930 8% 1624 1554 -4% and Sheering Road junctions) Total of Surveyed Links 9806 9167 -7% 9533 9131 -4%
Notes: a. Data Specified as PCUs b. Where differences occur in link flows between junctions, the highest flow is quoted c. ATC survey flows are 5 day average flows
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 13 Transport Assessment
4.3.3 The following further surveys were also carried out:
Manual Queue Surveys and Manual Classified Counts were carried out at the First Avenue junction on the northern and western arms between 1600 and 1900 on Thursday 11th January 2007. 4.3.4 Details of all the above surveys are provided in Appendix B.
7275$)),&6859(<6 4.4.1 To further review the traffic growth on the local road network since 2004, additional survey data has been obtained for the period 1999 to 2010 to identify trends. The purpose of this is validate (or otherwise challenge) the 2004 survey data for use as a baseline for modelling future road traffic conditions. 4.4.2 The Department for Transport (DfT) have two permanent ATC points within the vicinity of the site located on the A1184 (Count Point 73514) and the A414 (Count Point 77161) as shown below in Diagram 4.1.
',$*5$0')7$7&/2&$7,216
Proposed Development Site
Source: www.dft.gov.uk/matrix 4.4.3 The DfT website provides Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) data for the years 1999 – 2008. Therefore, although this data does not continue through to the current year, it does provide an indication of the typical trends in traffic flows in the area over a recent ten year period. The AADT data is summarised below in Table 4.2 overleaf.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 14 Transport Assessment
7$%/( 72/2&$/75$)),&75(1'6$ $ Annual Average Daily Annual Average Daily Traffic Traffic Year Year A414 A1184 A414 A1184 (CP 77161) (CP 73514) (CP 77161) (CP 73514) 1999 24,098 19,034 2004 23,552 17,426 2000 23,447 19,233 2005 23,045 16,880 2001 23,718 18,730 2006 23,150 16,580 2002 23,591 17,408 2007 22,929 17,108 2003 23,583 17,096 2008 22,623 16,811
4.4.4 Diagram 4.2 below illustrates the variation in traffic flows on the A1184 and A414 based on the flows in Table 4.2.
',$*5$0 72/2&$/75$)),&75(1'6$ $
4.4.5 The traffic data obtained from the DfT clearly indicates that between 1999 and 2008 daily traffic levels on both the A414 and A1184 were typically reducing. Analysis of the data indicates that overall traffic flows reduced during this period by 6.12% and 11.68% on the A414 and A1184 respectively.
7275$)),&6859(<6 4.5.1 The Essex Transport Monitoring Report published in April 2010 provides traffic flow data for the Harlow region up to 2008. The traffic flows are monitored with annual traffic counts forming a cordon and a screenline across Harlow to monitor traffic trends. 4.5.2 Two of survey locations which informed the Essex Transport Monitoring Report are located in the vicinity of the development site. Count Point 5908 is located on the A1184 (slightly further out of town than the DFT count on the A1184), and Count Point 6577 is located adjacent to the site on the B183 Gilden Way, as shown below in Diagram 4.3.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 15 Transport Assessment
',$*5$0(66(;&2817<&281&,/$7&/2&$7,216
Proposed Development Site
Source: Essex Transport Monitoring Report 2008 4.5.3 Additional traffic data for 2009 and 2010 for these two count points was obtained from ECC to provide a comprehensive data set up to the current period. The traffic flows are summarised below in Table 4.3, and illustrated further in Diagram 4.4.
7$%/(72/2&$/75$)),&75(1'6$ $ Annual Average Daily Annual Average Daily Traffic Traffic Year Year B183 A1184 B183 A1184 (CP 6577) (CP 5908) (CP 6577) (CP 5908) 2000 14,908 21,925 2006 15,645 19,558 2001 14,446 20,493 2007 14,574 18,619 2002 15,283 20,112 2008 14,177 18,125 2003 14,880 19,600 2009 14,082 18,562 2004 14,604 18,969 2010 14,650 18,802 2005 14,219 18,214
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 16 Transport Assessment
',$*5$072/2&$/75$)),&75(1'6$ $
2004-2010 Comparison
2004-2010 Comparison
4.5.4 The data provided in Table 4.3 and represented in Diagram 4.4 illustrates that between 2000 and 2005 there was a general reduction in traffic levels in the vicinity of the site. In 2006, local roads experienced a slight increase in traffic which subsided the following year. This is most likely the result of junction improvement works on the M25 / A10 during this period which resulted in a significant volume of traffic diverting through Harlow to join the motorway network via the M11. 4.5.5 Since 2008 there has been a small increase in traffic levels, however when compared with the traffic levels in 2004 when the detailed traffic surveys were undertaken, there has been no overall change in traffic levels. On the A1184, the AADT is approximately 0.9% lower in 2010 than in 2004. Traffic flows on Gilden Way have increased by just 0.3%. It is therefore evident that there is little change in traffic flows on the local highway network at present compared with 2004. 4.5.6 The above data has also been assessed for peak hour periods, to determine if peak period traffic has followed a similar trend. Table 4.4 below summarises the peak hour two-way traffic and AADT on the B183 Gilden Way for which comparable data is available. The proportion of the AADT that occurs during the two peak hour periods is also identified.
7$%/( %*,/'(1:$<75$)),&'$7$
B183 Gilden Way Two-way Traffic Flow % Peak Hour Year AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour AADT (AM + PM) / AADT 2004 1,735 1,602 14,604 23% 2007 1,821 1,499 14,395 23% 2009 1,708 1,521 14,082 23% 2010 1,827 1,627 14,650 24%
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 17 Transport Assessment
4.5.7 Table 4.4 demonstrates that the proportion of daily traffic that falls within the peak hour periods is consistent between when the detailed traffic surveys were first undertaken in 2004, in the intervening years of 2007 and 2009, and with current daily profiles on the B183 Gilden Way. 4.5.8 A further conclusion which can be drawn from the above analysis (in both sections 4.4 and 4.5) is that growth which has occurred in Harlow (in terms of population and Jobs) has not increased traffic flows in this area of the road network.
6859(<9$/,',7<)2502'(//,1* 4.6.1 As the AADT flows in 2004 and 2010 have been found to be comparable and as the peak hour flows have also been found to be comparable, it is reasonable to conclude that the 2004 surveys remain a reasonable representation of current prevailing traffic conditions and can be transposed to 2010 as a valid baseline for traffic impact modelling.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 18 Transport Assessment
5 Proposed Development
,1752'8&7,21 5.1.1 This section sets out further information regarding the proposed site use and identifies reasonable estimates of trip generation, including vehicles, and the distribution of traffic generated by the site.
352326('6,7(86($1'23(5$7,21 5.2.1 For the purposes of this analysis, the development is assumed to comprise 1200 residential units, of which 33% is affordable. The mix is assumed to be:
724 x Private Houses 176 x Affordable Houses – 70 x two bed – 80 x two bed – 326 x three bed – 64 x three bed – 328 x four bed – 32 x four bed
76 x Private Flats 224 x Affordable Flats – 6 x one bed – 144 x one bed – 70 x two bed – 80 x two bed 5.2.2 The site will also include 26Ha of open space. The illustrative internal site layout is included with the Planning Application, and is shown indicatively in Figure 5. It is proposed that a primary school site is included within the scheme with the potential to provide for new residents. It is assumed that the school would principally serve to accommodate the demand for school places (approximately 1.5 form entry) generated by the proposed development. In addition, it is expected that a small neighbourhood centre with some community facilities and a commercial element will be provided within the site. The centre may be associated with the school and will be very small in comparison with the residential element.
352326('5(6,'(17,$/75,3*(1(5$7,21 5.3.1 The 2004 Strategic Transport Study (STS) used broad-based residential trip rates for sites of mixed type and tenure to model the traffic generation from 950 units on the site. A more refined review of TRICS database has been carried out and trip rates for houses and flats in similar locations with similar facilities to the site used to represent the site. 5.3.2 Trip rates from residential developments tend to vary with different types of housing, and different tenures. In general, houses generate more trips than flatted developments; and privately owned dwellings generate more trips than non- private/affordable units. For this reason, four trip rates have been extracted from TRICS to represent the different types and tenure of dwellings proposed on the site, based on the following categories from TRICS database:
Category 03/A; Houses Privately Owned
Category 03/B; Houses for Rent (used to represent the affordable housing element)
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 19 Transport Assessment
Category 03/C; Flats Privately Owned
Category 03/D; Flats for Rent (used to represent affordable flats) 5.3.3 Sites were selected from suburban or edge of town locations, representative of the site’s location, and average trip rates extracted. Trip rate information and calculations are included at Appendix C. For ease, these four trip rates are aggregated to a single rate in the below table, representing the entire development.
7$%/(352326('5(6,'(17,$/75$)),&*(1(5$7,21 0800-0900 1700-1800 Daily In Out Total In Out Total 103 292 395 274 169 442 3989 Private House (0.142) (0.403) (0.545) (0.378) (0.233) (0.611) (5.51) Affordable 23 45 68 52 35 87 804 House (0.13) (0.257) (0.387) (0.296) (0.199) (0.495) (4.57) 2 14 16 14 11 25 219 Private Flat (0.024) (0.19) (0.214) (0.19) (0.143) (0.333) (2.879) 15 30 45 40 27 67 493 Affordable Flat (0.066) (0.133) (0.199) (0.179) (0.12) (0.299) (2.203) Total 142 381 524 380 241 622 5506 (Aggregate) (0.119) (0.318) (0.436) (0.317) (0.201) (0.518) (4.588)
Notes: a. Data expressed as: total movements rounded (vehicle trip rate per unit) b. Daily trip rates are for 12-working hour day 0700-1900 5.3.4 The trip rates put forward for the proposed residential development of Newhall were obtained from the Transport Assessment supporting the relevant planning application (ref. HW/PL/04/00302 for Phase 2 of the scheme). It can be seen below that the peak hour trip rates proposed at the Gilden Way site are broadly comparable.
7$%/(1(:+$//75$)),&*(1(5$7,21 0800-0900 1700-1800 Daily In Out Total In Out Total Gilden Way Site 0.12 0.32 0.44 0.32 0.20 0.52 4.59 Newhall 0.10 0.38 0.48 0.31 0.13 0.44 -
Notes: a. Data expressed as: vehicle trip rate per unit b. Daily trip rates are for 12-working hour day 0700-1900 c. Newhall trip rates from Transport Assessment supporting planning application ref. HW/PL/04/00302 (Newhall Phase 2 residential development) 5.3.5 The trip rates for the site are considered representative given its location in relation to Harlow Mill station, and shopping and schools close by. This view is further supported by 2001 Census data for mode of travel to work and car ownership. The subsequent traffic generation and traffic analysis are therefore considered robust.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 20 Transport Assessment
5.3.6 The vehicle trip rates established in Table 5.1 are based on TRICS surveys for residential dwellings. Since the time of that trip generation exercise, the TRICS database has been expanded to include sufficient multimodal surveys for a separate full multimodal trip generation. The results of this assessment are set out in the Table below.
7$%/(352326('5(6,'(17,$/08/7,02'$/*(1(5$7,21 0800-0900 1700-1800 Daily In Out Total In Out Total Pedestrians 29 272 301 140 41 181 - (0.024) (0.227) (0.251) (0.117) (0.034) (0.151) Public Transport 7 40 47 16 3 19 - Users (0.006) (0.033) (0.039) (0.013) (0.003) (0.016) Cyclists 7 14 21 31 4 35 - (0.006) (0.012) (0.018) (0.026) (0.003) (0.029) Vehicle 194 539 733 507 293 800 - Occupants (0.162) (0.449) (0.611) (0.423) (0.244) (0.667) Total People 238 864 1102 694 341 1035 - (0.198) (0.72) (0.918) (0.578) (0.284) (0.863)
352326('&200(5&,$/9(+,&/(75,3*(1(5$7,21 5.4.1 The centre will contain some 2,350 sqm of floor space (gross) and this could be sub-divided as shown in the following table.
7$%/(1(,*+%285+22'&(175(86(6 Land Use/Floor Area Comments Retail 300sqm Mainly local convenience uses, no. of units unknown Business space 450sqm Mainly for local professional companies Live/work units 1,000sqm Both living and working space Community/learning 300sqm Village hall type usage Social Provision 300sqm Nursery and/or low key medical facility
5.4.2 At this stage in the planning/development process there is a great deal of uncertainty about the precise type of uses and eventual occupants of all elements of the neighbourhood centre. The individual elements are considered further below.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 21 Transport Assessment
5HWDLO(OHPHQW VTP 5.4.3 A typical local shop is likely to be about 50 to 100sqm in floor area; therefore the retail element could comprise 3 to 6 units. 5.4.4 Many retail developments will produce ‘pass-by’ or ‘diverted trips’, that is, trips passing the site, or already on the local road network that divert from their existing routes to the site. Such diversions can affect patterns of movements if the development is large. Given the very modest scale of the retail uses, their location away from the main road, and the alternative large scale facilities elsewhere in the area, it is considered that trip division will not be a major issue, or have material impacts. The uses are likely to serve the immediate community, and be accessed principally by foot with possibly some internal car trips.
%XVLQHVV6SDFH VTP 5.4.5 At this time it is not clear if this will include uses within use class B1 ‘Business’ and/or class A2 ‘Financial & Professional Services’. However, as car parking standards for small development in these use classes are similar, traffic generating characteristics are likely to be comparable. 5.4.6 Based on guidance in ‘Employment Densities: A Full Guide, English Partnerships, July 2001’ general purpose built offices will on average accommodate one person per 19sqm of floor space. Therefore this element could be expected to be occupied by around 24 people.
/LYH:RUN8QLWV VTP 5.4.7 Little information is available regarding the traffic generation associated with such units. However, by definition, it would be expected that only very modest levels of traffic would be generated during ‘conventional’ peak hours because there would be no external journey to work. Depending on the size of the ‘work element’ of the units, some ‘employees’ may travel to and from the units; however, in line with the overall concept, such employment could be local. 5.4.8 Method of Travel to Work data from the 2001 Census for Old Harlow ward shows that 6% of residents work mainly from home. Census Special Workplace Statistics shows that 24% of residents both live and work within Old Harlow ward.
&RPPXQLW\/HDUQLQJ(OHPHQW VTP 5.4.9 The exact activities that will take place in this element are not known, however, it is expected that space will be used like a ‘village hall’, with local, community based activity taking place. 5.4.10 Village halls do not usually produce much activity at conventional peak periods and if there is activity at these times, most would be very locally generated with low car usage.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 22 Transport Assessment
6RFLDO3URYLVLRQ VTP 5.4.11 Details of likely end users are not available; however, part of the area would be occupied by a local day nursery or playgroup. This would be appropriate given the proximity of the primary school and the opportunity it presents for parents to escort infant/junior children to school whilst also taking pre-school children to the nursery/playgroup. This type of use would generate activity in the morning peak hour, although it would be expected that most trips would be internal, on foot, or ‘drop off (linked) trips by car, or on the way to the bus stop.
2YHUDOO,PSDFW 5.4.12 Based on the above assumptions, the likely traffic generation associated with each element of the centre is estimated below. This only relates to traffic produced, as origin and journey distance information is not available.
7$%/(3266,%/(1(,*+%285+22'&(175($775$&7,21 Two-Way Traffic Use AM Peak PM Peak Retail (300 sqm) 43 90 Business (450 sqm) 6 12 Live/work (1,000 sqm) Minor Minor Community (300 sqm) 2 6 Social (300 sqm) 28 5 Total 79 113
Note: Forecasts based on TRICS data using the sites detailed below
a. Retail trips based on ES-01-I-02; SG-01-I-01; WO-01-I-01 b. Business trips based on BT-02-A-01 and TW-02-A-01 c. Community based on Ba-07-Q-01; BA-07-Q-02; FA-07-Q-01; WL-07-Q001 d. Social trips based on SF-04-D-01; ER-04-D-06; ER-04-D-08; ER-04-D-02; ER-04-D-07; ER-04-D-02 5.4.13 It can be seen from this table that the majority of traffic will be associated with the retail element of the centre. As the retail uses are primarily intended to serve the development and are too small to attract significant movement from a wider area, these movements will be local ‘pass-by’ trips or attracted from the very local area. 5.4.14 This forecast is likely to over-estimate the traffic related to the centre because there probably is an element of double counting, that is, there may be multiple use (cross visitation) of the different elements. For example, a person using the social facilities may also visit the retail element. Trips to the centre may also be combined with education escort journeys. 5.4.15 Car journeys associated with the residential uses could be broken at the neighbourhood centre, therefore the traffic will already be accounted for in the residential traffic forecast. These are commonly called ‘pass-by’ trips.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 23 Transport Assessment
5.4.16 A significant proportion of peak hour trips are for shopping/leisure/personal business/other purposes in the peak periods. For the purposes of assessment these have been assumed to impact on the local road network, however, given the facilities in the neighbourhood centre some of these journeys may well be contained within the development. Overall therefore the traffic model may slightly over estimate the external impact of the development and this would tend to offset any external trips generated by the neighbourhood centre itself. 5.4.17 To summarise, the above trip generation has not been included in the traffic model as the neighbourhood centre is not expected to generate a significant number of trips originating outside of the development. Many of the trips generated would be pass- by or trips associated with other journeys purposes. The traffic model also takes no account of reduced external shopping etc related trips as a result of these facilities being provided within the site.
352326('35,0$5<6&+22/9(+,&/(75,3*(1(5$7,21 5.5.1 The proposed primary school is expected to be either a 1.5 of 3 form entry school, possibly linked to the nursery provided in the Neighbourhood Centre. The school would provide education facilities for residents at the site (1.5 FE) and if ECC choose to proceed with a 3 FE school, it is understood that this would be delivered through combining the school site with the nearby Harlowbury Primary School. It can therefore be expected that many trips would be internal to the site, with the remainder being transferred to from the adjacent site.
)(6FKRRO7ULS*HQHUDWLRQ 5.5.2 The trips generated by the residential element of the proposed development have not made any allowance for a reduction in vehicle trip generation due to the internalisation of trips to the Primary School (a 1.5 FE school would effectively cater for the demand of a 1200 unit development). It is not considered appropriate to reduce or increase the vehicle trip generation of the proposed development site to account for the primary school, as:
many trips to the primary school would be from the proposed development;
some trips from the development would be to other primary schools; and
the proposed primary school site would attract some pupils from outside of the proposed development site. 5.5.3 On balance, the net effect of this is expected to be negligible. Therefore no adjustments to the site trip generation have been made.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 24 Transport Assessment
)(6FKRRO7ULS*HQHUDWLRQ 5.5.4 The additional attraction to the site associated with a 3 FE School as opposed to a 1.5FE school is expected to be transferred from the adjacent Harlowbury Primary School, which it is understood would be combined with the proposed school site if this option were progressed. These trips would therefore already be on the local network, and it the school were solely accessed via the proposed development (and not in part via the existing access to Harlowbury Primary School), these trips would impact only the site access junction. 5.5.5 TRICS has been reviewed to estimate the quantum of vehicles which may be attracted to a 1.5FE school (400 pupils) (assuming that the other 1.5FE are accounted for through internalisation and offsetting against the residential trip generation as set out above). The Trip generation assumptions are set out below:
7$%/(352326(')((;7(51$/75$)),&*(1(5$7,21 0800-0900 1700-1800 Daily In Out Total In Out Total 113 80 193 7 12 19 Primary School (0.282) (0.2) (0.482) (0.017) (0.03) (0.047) -
Note: Forecasts based on the following TRICS surveys :CA-04-A-01, DV-04-A-03, HC-04-A-04, MS-04- A-01, NR-04-A-01, NR-04-A-02, NY-04-A-01, SF-04-A-01, SF-04-A-02, WO-04-A-01
352326('75$)),&',675,%87,21$1'$66,*10(17
'LVWULEXWLRQ6FHQDULR 5.6.1 The distribution of development traffic is assumed to be for a design year of 2018 (assumed to be the year of completion). The nearby Newhall Development, which is taken as being a committed development, is assumed to have progressed by that time. 5.6.2 The Local Plan identifies that a new link road will be provided between the A414 and London Road at Newhall. The proposed link road is associated with the Newhall development (which has outline planning permission). Para 8.12.5 of the Plan states that: “The new road link for Newhall to the A414 is indicated on the Proposals Map. This route is indicative until detailed proposals are submitted for the development at Mark Hall School which will then identify the exact line of the road.” 5.6.3 This is complimented by Local Plan Policy T10 that states, inter alia: “Proposals for major new highway and improvement schemes will not be permitted, except where they are essential to facilitate major new development” 5.6.4 Local Plan Policy T11 further states: “A link road from Newhall to the highway network, the A414, is required.”
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 25 Transport Assessment
5.6.5 Traffic assignment on to the road network therefore assumes that this link road is in place. However, it is worth noting that only the proposed development traffic and Newhall traffic are routed onto the link, and that no benefit is assumed to arise from the probable rerouting of existing traffic.
-RXUQH\3XUSRVH'LVDJJUHJDWLRQ 5.6.6 The ‘National Travel Survey, DfT, 2006’, in Tables 6.6a and 7.1, provides data for trip purpose by time of day and trip purpose by main mode respectively. These data have been combined to determine the percentage of car driver trips undertaken in the peak hours for three combined journey purposes. The results are summarised below:
7$%/(3($.+285&$5'5,9(5-2851(<385326( Work / Long Distance Shopping / Local Education Trips Trips Trips AM Peak 59% 22% 19% PM Peak 57% 2% 41%
5.6.7 The Work / Long Distance Trips are assigned to the network based on 2001 Census Origin-Destination data for journeys to work. This was prepared in 2004 as part of the STS. 5.6.8 The Education related trips have been assigned on to the network based on the assumptions detailed in the Sustainability Assessment prepared in 2001 for the Public Inquiry. These assumptions are summarised below:
7$%/(('8&$7,2175,36 Demand for Assumptions Education type Primary 50% Trips are likely to be to within the site 75% of trips will be local and are assumed to be made Secondary 33% on foot/cycle or by bus. Of the remaining trips, 20% are anticipated to be made by car. 20% of these trips will be made by car and the Tertiary 17% remainder by public transport or other modes.
5.6.9 The education related car trips which are generated by the site are assumed to route entirely to and from the town centre along Gilden Way and First Avenue. No trips are assumed to be intercepted by the schools along this route or closer to the site as any trips to these sites are assumed to be made by other means. 5.6.10 The Shopping / Local trips have again been assigned on to the network based on the assumptions detailed in the 2001 Sustainability Assessment. These assumptions are summarised below:
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 26 Transport Assessment
7$%/( 6+233,1*$1'/2&$/75,3',675,%87,21 Demand for Assumptions Shopping Type Convenience shopping will be accessible within Convenience 35% one mile of the site. External Food Most external food shopping may be catered for 40% Shopping within one mile of the site It is assumed there will be a negligible number of External trips made outside Harlow (e.g. to Bishops Comparison 25% Stortford or Hertford) for this purpose during peak Shopping hours.
5.6.11 The Shopping / Local trips which are undertaken by car have been distributed towards and from the following destinations:
Templefields Warehouse Shopping
Harlow Town Centre
Local Superstores 5.6.12 The network distributions for each of the above journey purposes are summarised in Appendix D. Journey routes are based on AA route planner recommendations during peak hour periods. Where more than one route was suggested traffic has been distributed equally between them. At this stage it is assumed that all traffic will use the primary site access at the Sheering Road roundabout on the B183. These assignments have then been aggregated by the proportion of trips made for each purpose, also summarised in Appendix D.
3$5.,1* 5.7.1 As the planning application is in outline with an illustrative Masterplan, the internal layout including the details of car paring provision have not yet been determined. It is envisaged that the car parking strategy will be developed and agreed through future detailed / reserved matters planning application, and that the strategy will make use of relevant best practice guidance and be prepared in the context of the appropriate policies and standards. 5.7.2 Cycle Parking will similarly be agreed through future detailed / reserved matters planning applications. It is envisaged that cycle parking will be provided in line with Essex County Council Parking Standards, the current version of which are set out in the table below.
7$%/((66(;&2817<&281&,/&<&/(3$5.,1*67$1'$5'6 Parking Spaces for dwellings without a garage 1-bed Units 1 2 or more bed Units 2 Visitor spaces 1 space per 8 units
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 27 Transport Assessment
5.7.3 Cycle parking is envisaged as being typically provided within dwellings, or in cycle parking areas adjacent to residential blocks. Parking spaces will be designed in compliance with Essex Vehicle Parking Standards, Appendix 2, and ‘Designing for Cyclists – Guide to Good Practice’, or the relevant guidance at the time.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 28 Transport Assessment
6 Proposed Development Assessment
,1752'8&7,21 6.1.1 This section considers the impact of the development on the surrounding transportation networks, with particular focus on traffic impact.
(;,67,1*6,78$7,21 6.2.1 There is already a high volume of traffic on the local road network. Extensive queues form on the B183 (Gilden Way / First Avenue) between Harlow town centre and the site, and extending east beyond the site, during the AM peak hour. It is accepted that the road network both within Harlow and in the vicinity of the site is subjected on occasion to very heavy traffic flows which can be exacerbated by traffic diverting from the M25 onto the A414. 6.2.2 Current conditions during peak hours can be very congested at junctions on the A414 south of Harlow town centre, and on roads leading into the town; including the B183 First Avenue, A1025 Second Avenue and roads within the town centre. 6.2.3 A link road is included in the Harlow District Local Plan between London Road and the A414, to the south of St Marks Comprehensive School. The Local Plan indicates that the road should be provided in conjunction with the planned Phase 2 development at Newhall. The Do Minimum and Do Something junction analyses assume the presence of this link road. Assignment of traffic is affected by the link road, as vehicles travelling between the site and the A414 south of Church Langley are assigned to London Road and the link road, rather than the A414/B183 junction. 6.2.4 Mitigation measures described in this report produce a ‘nil detriment’ or better impact on the road network as a whole, i.e. the effect of the development is mitigated, but the wider issues with respect to traffic queuing and congestion in Harlow are not, as they are not within the scope of this Transport Assessment, and are not issues which a proposed residential led scheme should seek to resolve.
$66(660(176&(1$5,26 6.3.1 The impact of the proposed development on the local road network has been assessed both in terms of junction capacity and link capacity. Assessment has been carried out for the following two scenarios:
Do Minimum (2010 Base + Newhall + Other Background Growth)
Do Something (Do Minimum + Proposed Development) 6.3.2 These scenarios have been tested in 2018 (year of completion). Also, where applicable, assessments have been carried out for both existing and proposed layouts.
75$)),&*52:7+ 6.4.1 Traffic growth on the local road network has been projected using TEMPRO adjusted NRTF growth factors, based on the methodology detailed in ‘TEMPRO Guidance Note, 2006’. The B183 Gilden Way, First Avenue and the A414 are particularly congested. 6.4.2 When first carried out, this assessment was undertaken for a design year of 2012 relative to a 2004 baseline. The validity of translating this forecast to a period from 2010 to 2018 (the actual design year) is considered later in this section.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 29 Transport Assessment
6.4.3 Both Harlowbury and Newhall developments are considered explicitly in the traffic model as ‘the proposed development’ and as a ‘committed development’. It is therefore appropriate to adjust the TEMPRO growth rates using the ‘Alternative Planning Assumptions’ facility in TEMPRO, again based on the methodology detailed in ‘TEMPRO Guidance Note, 2006’, to avoid double counting. 6.4.4 Initially, The TEMPRO planning assumptions for housing growth were compared with the below planning documents which detail the current and future housing development proposals in Harlow. Namely:
Draft revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for the East of England, December 2004, Policy H1
Essex & Southend-on-Sea Replacement Structure Plan 1996 - 2011, April 2001, Policy H1
Adopted Replacement Harlow Local Plan, July 2006, Para 6.4.1 6.4.5 These were found to compare well.
1HZKDOO 6.4.6 Newhall Phase 1 is consented and partly completed. Newhall Phase 2 is also now consented, and is allocated in the Local Plan for 750 units by 2011. It was therefore appropriate to adjust the TEMPRO planning data to remove the 1035 units assumed to be completed at Newhall between 2004 (survey year) and 2011 (local plan horizon) as part of Phases 1 and 2 which are included with in the Plan. Beyond the Local Plan period, Newhall is considered to be included within the East of England Plan which is current until 2021. 6.4.7 From 2011 to 2012 it is appropriate to remove a further 220 units from TEMPRO, as Newhall is planned to continue to grow until 2018. The traffic model therefore explicitly considers a total of 1,335 units growth at Newhall between 2004 and 2012.
+DUORZEXU\ 6.4.8 At the time of assessment, the proposed development was not included within the Local Plan, and was therefore considered to be additional development, based on the assumption that all sites allocated within the local plan are delivered by 2011. It was therefore not considered appropriate to make any allowance for Harlowbury in the background traffic growth alteration from 2004 to 2012.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 30 Transport Assessment
6.4.9 The resultant background traffic growth rates are detailed below:
7$%/(%$6(7(0352*52:7+)$&7256 TEMPRO Forecast Forecast National NRTF AM PM Local AM Local PM All Day Growth Growth 2004-2012 1.126 1.115 1.084 1.105 1.148 1.153
Note: a. Based on growth of 2,803 units in Harlow (zone) between 2004 and 2012
7$%/($'-867('7(0352*52:7+)$&7256 TEMPRO Forecast Forecast National NRTF AM PM Local AM Local PM All Day Growth Growth 2004-2012 1.109 1.100 1.084 1.105 1.130 1.109
Note: a. Based on growth of 1,548 units in Harlow (zone) between 2004 and 2012 (Newhall removed) 6.4.10 Further detail on the traffic growth forecasting is provided in Appendix D.
7UDIILF*URZWK9DOLGLW\ 6.4.11 The traffic Growth Assessment above is for 2004 to 2012. It has been previously demonstrated that the 2004 baseline surveys are valid for translation to a 2010 baseline. It is therefore now appropriate to challenge if a applying a 2004 to 2012 projected growth rate to the period 2010 to 2018 is also appropriate. 6.4.12 In the above assessment, TEMPRO projected growth of 2,803 units in the period 2004 to 2012 in Harlow (zone) including Newhall (including Newhall) or 1,548 units if excluding Newhall (which is accounted for explicitly as a committed development). 6.4.13 The Harlow Monitoring Report 2008-2009 projects 3,794 new households between 2010 and 2018 (including the proposed development). 1,335 units of development traffic is accounted for explicitly through modelling of the traffic generated by Newhall. The proposed development of 1,200 units is also accounted for explicitly in both traffic modelling and in the housing projections. The equivalent background housing growth is therefore 1,259. This is a lower housing growth than is used in the TEMPRO growth forecasts, and it is therefore reasonable to conclude that the traffic growth factors can very robustly be applied to the period 2010 to 2018. 6.4.14 The above growth forecast is considered very robust as the growth factors have been applied to traffic on all roads in the study area. In reality, each individual development included in TEMPRO will affect only a finite number of roads, primarily close to the individual developments. An overview of the locations of these other developments which are identified in the Harlow Monitoring Report 2008-2009 identifies that they are typically located close to the town centre and are therefore very unlikely, in reality, to have any material impact on the road network in the study area.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 31 Transport Assessment
6.4.15 While growth rates of approximately 13% and 11% have been applied to the AM and PM peak hours respectively in the modelling, it is considered that background traffic growth is more likely to be less than 5%, and perhaps even so small as to be negligible. Chapter 4 has shown no change if traffic flows in the 6 years from 2004 to 2010, during which time 1,363 new dwellings were completed in Harlow (based on the Harlow Monitoring Report 2008-2009). It is recognised that there may be some suppression due to the economic down turn affecting this data, but this does not appear to be the lead cause as the data shows a reduction in flow in times of economic growth (pre 2008).
/,1.&$3$&,7<$1$/<6,6 6.5.1 The impact of the proposed development on the modelled road network is shown below, based on the methodology set out in ‘TA 79/99 Traffic Capacity of Urban Roads’. It has been assumed that all of the below roads are UAP1 classification, with the exception of London Road (north of London Road roundabout) which is assumed to be UAP3 classification. The summary tables below show only those roads on which the two way peak hour flow increase by 5% or more.
7$%/( /,1.&$3$&,7<$66(660(17
Road Capacity AM PM
Link Width (m) Two Way DM DS DM DS
A414 (N of Church Langley RA) 10.1 3375 2663 2767 2442 2567
A414 (N of First Avenue RA) 9.8 3300 2168 2277 2162 2332
Edinburgh Way (W of Edinburgh Way RA) 9.0 3100 2463 2576 2159 2370
First Avenue (E of First Avenue RA) 6.8 2241 1987 2309 1637 1982
First Avenue (W of First Avenue RA) 7.0 2405 2050 2258 2424 2591
Gilden Way (E of London Road RA) 7.0 2405 1978 2462 1765 2344
London Road (N of London Road RA) 6.8 1879 1550 1796 1277 1462
London Road (S of London Road RA) 6.6 2085 644 678 470 562
Note: Capacities and flows specified in vehs per hour 6.5.2 The above data should be viewed critically and in the context of the following caveats highlighted in the guidance. “2.2 The capacity of urban roads can be affected by a wide range of factors that may not always be accurately predicted by the road features identified. For this reason capacity flows may be up to 10% more or less than the values given in this document.” “2.3 The potential capacity of a link will not be reached if either the capacity of junctions along the link or the capacity of the adjoining network is lower than the link in question.”
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 32 Transport Assessment
6.5.3 The above tables show that many of the roads considered will function within their theoretical capacity during the peak hours. Others which are close to their predicted capacity in the Do Minimum scenario will exceed this capacity in the Do Something scenario. 6.5.4 First Avenue east and west of the First Avenue roundabout junction exceeds capacity during the peak hours for the ‘Do Something’ scenario. The First Avenue junction and the approach into Harlow town centre are in general congested during peak hours. Delays on the B183 west of the A414 are caused by pedestrian crossings, vehicles turning right into schools and junctions, and during periods of heavy traffic backing up from Harlow town centre. Therefore, whilst the link approaches or exceeds operational link capacity during peak hours as a result of the development, this is not thought to be a causal factor of vehicle delays into Harlow town centre. 6.5.5 The development causes significant traffic increases on the B183 Gilden Way east of the London Road roundabout junction, and First Avenue between the London Road junction and First Avenue junction. Traffic on Gilden Way is increased by around 30% during the PM peak, and traffic on First Avenue is increased by around 20% in the PM peak. The implementation of highway and junction improvements proposed as part of the development on this part of the road network will provide further capacity in this area. 6.5.6 The above assessment is also affected by what are considered to be overly robust growth rates which are not expected to materialise in reality. Peak hour traffic flows would be suppressed where network capacity is constrained, through mode shift (travelling by different modes), peak spreading (travelling at different times), and diversion (re-routing onto other parts of the network with greater capacity to balance journey times across all routes).
-81&7,21&$3$&,7<$1$/<6,6 6.6.1 The junctions considered as part of this assessment were agreed with Essex County Council at the scoping stage, and have been confirmed as being of a suitable range to cover all those junctions on which development traffic increase total traffic by 5% or more. 6.6.2 This section describes performance of the junctions based on their existing layouts. Mitigation measures are described in Section 7, including the effect of modifications to some junctions. 6.6.3 The following roundabout junctions were analysed using the TRL software package ARCADY:
Sheering Road roundabout junction (main site access);
London Road roundabout junction;
First Avenue roundabout junction;
Edinburgh Way roundabout junction;
Church Langley Way roundabout junction; and
Second Avenue roundabout junction.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 33 Transport Assessment
6.6.4 A secondary vehicular access is proposed to the east of the main site access at Sheering Road. For the purposes of the assessment it was assumed that all site traffic would enter/leave the site via the Sheering Road roundabout. Therefore the Sheering Road roundabout is tested for the worst case. 6.6.5 The secondary access will be of the form of a priority junction at the eastern end of the site frontage, and it is likely that only a small proportion of traffic generated by the site would use it as most traffic movement will be to/from the town to the west. 6.6.6 The tables below summarise the impact of the development in terms of change in total traffic volumes entering the junctions considered in this assessment.
7$%/(727$/-81&7,21(175<)/2:6 2018 Do Minimum 2018 Do Something %age Increase Roundabout AM PM AM PM AM PM Sheering Road 2,229 1,985 2,752 2,607 23% 31% London Road 2,753 2,463 3,234 3,036 17% 23% First Avenue 4,798 4,616 5,137 4,977 7% 8% Edinburgh Way 4,153 3,568 4,302 3,829 4% 7% Church Langley 5,133 4,675 5,252 4,812 2% 3% Second Avenue 5,505 5,318 5,624 5,455 2% 3%
6.6.7 As would be expected, the development has the most significant impact on the site access (Sheering Road junction). The London Road junction also experiences a significant increase in traffic as a result of the development. The First Avenue and Edinburgh Way junction are impacted only moderately, and the more remote Church Langley and Second Avenue junctions are not significantly affected. 6.6.8 The results of the individual junction analyses in ARCADY are shown below, comparing the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios. Full details of the output from the models are provided in Appendix G. 6.6.9 The analyses in this section show the results of capacity assessment with the existing junction layouts. Alterations that mitigate traffic impact and improve the available capacity and junction operation are discussed in Section 7.
&DSDFLW\0RGHOOLQJ3DUDPHWHUVDQG'HILQLWLRQV 6.6.10 To provide context to the junction capacity assessments results, the following is a summary of key definitions and parameters:
Entry Demand Flow – the quantum of vehicle traffic which is seeking to enter a junction through an approach arm / lane being modelled.
Entry Demand Flow Profile – The rate at which vehicles are assumed to arrive at a junction through a modelled hour period. In an uncongested network the rate of arrivals may increase at the beginning of an hour, peak in the middle, and decline towards the end. In a congested network the rate of arrivals may remain constant throughout the hour period where flow across the period and across the network is constrained and spread (a Flat Flow Profile). As the local network is congested, a Flat Flow Profile has been applied in the modelling.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 34 Transport Assessment
Entry Capacity – the quantum of vehicle traffic which could enter a junction through an approach arm / lane being modelled, determined by the geometry of that arm / lane (width, angle of turn, length of flare etc) and the Flow which has priority over that approach which conflicts with it (circulating flow on a roundabout across an entry arm for example). Calculated capacities are average values. Actual values can vary about the average due to day to day variation and site to site variation. Day to day variation will manifest itself in practice as variations in queue lengths and delays.
Ratio of Flow to Capacity (RFC) – a ratio of the quantum of vehicle traffic which is seeking to enter a junction vs the quantum of vehicle traffic which could enter a junction. An RFC of 1.00 would therefore be characteristic of an approach arm / lane which is operating at its theoretical capacity, and an RFC of 0.50 would be characteristic of a approach arm / lane which is operating at half its theoretical capacity and could therefore accommodate twice the current Entry Demand Flow. The site to site variation introduces a standard error of prediction of the Entry Capacity; for example: – an RFC of 1.00 would theoretically be below capacity at half (50%) of sites modelled to operate at this level; – an RFC of 0.85 would theoretically be below capacity at 5 out of 6 (83%) sites, and an RFC of 1.15 would theoretically be below capacity at 1 out of 6 (17%) sites; and – an RFC of 0.70 would theoretically be below capacity at 39 out of 40 (98%) sites, and an RFC of 1.30 would theoretically be below capacity at 1 out of 40 (2%) sites. The Highways Agency recommend (in TA 23/81), for Trunk Roads and Motorways, that the general use of designs with a RFC ratio of about 0.85 is likely to result in a level of provision which will be economically justified. It also notes that in urban areas, the 0.85 ratio may be unsuitable and a higher ratio, with consequent higher probability of queuing, will have to be accepted. While the status and function of an individual arm or link should be considered when determining an appropriate capacity threshold, it is not unreasonable to promote an RFC of 0.90 to 0.95 as an acceptable ratio (which would equate to a probability of 60% to 70% of the site being below capacity in the context of the site to site variation in the modelling) for non-trunk roads in an urban location.
Queue (Q) – The maximum average number of vehicles queuing on an approach arm / lane in a period being modelled. Where Queues are large, this could be approximated to the number of vehicles by which the Entry Demand Flow exceeds the Entry Capacity.
Vehicle Delay – The maximum average delay experienced by drivers while queuing on the approach arm / lane in a period being modelled. This can be expressed as either average delay per vehicle or total delay across an approach arm / lane (as a multiple of average delay per vehicle multiplied by the number of vehicles).
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 35 Transport Assessment
6KHHULQJ5RDG5RXQGDERXW 6LWH$FFHVV -XQFWLRQ 6.6.11 The existing site roundabout has been assessed based on its existing layout as a 4 arm junction, although the site access arm is currently unused and will be modified as part of the development. The existing layout is shown in Appendix E (Drawing 0881- GA-23).
7$%/(6+((5,1*52$'-81&7,21 )(35,0$5< AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q Site Access (N) 0.000 0.0 0.332 0.4 0.000 0.0 0.279 0.4 Gilden Way (E) 0.633 1.7 0.716 2.5 0.288 0.4 0.314 0.5 Sheering Road (S) 0.388 0.6 0.465 0.9 0.172 0.2 0.191 0.2 Gilden Way (W) 0.388 0.6 0.467 0.9 0.703 2.4 0.915 10
6.6.12 Based on the existing geometry, the Sheering Road junction (site access) will perform generally satisfactorily. The Gilden Way approach Arm to the west exceeds the HA recommended 0.85 capacity threshold in the design year in the PM peak. 6.6.13 However, ARCADY assumes inherently that all approach arms to a junction are used equally. In reality this would not be the case within the existing arrangement as there is an imbalance in turning movements and insufficient space on the exit arms to allow two lanes of exiting traffic. On the Gilden Way (E) and Gilden Way (W) approach arms (which accommodate principally westbound and eastbound traffic respectively with relatively few left and right turn movements and have relatively high RFCs) it will therefore be necessary to introduce mitigation measures to the eastern and western exit arms to provide the modelled capacity on the ground. 6.6.14 This simplification in the modelling will also affect the estimated capacity in the Do Minimum situation. Without sufficient exit capacity to accommodate full usage of the available road space on the approach, the junction would not achieve the modelled level of service, and would operate closer to capacity. The degree of change between existing and future conditions would therefore be significantly less pronounced than suggested by the results. 6.6.15 As set out previously, the proposed primary school is expected to be either a 1.5 of 3 form entry school, if ECC choose to proceed with a 3 FE school, it is understood that this would be delivered through combining the school site with the nearby Harlowbury Primary School. The additional attraction to the site associated with a 3 FE School as opposed to a 1.5FE school is expected to be transferred from the adjacent Harlowbury Primary School. These trips would therefore already be on the local network, and these trips would impact only the site access junction. A sensitivity test has therefore been carried out to determine the scale of impact of this additional traffic on the site access, set out below
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 36 Transport Assessment
7$%/(6+((5,1*52$'-81&7,21 )(35,0$5< AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q Site Access (N) 0.000 0.0 0.403 0.7 0.000 0.0 0.293 0.4 Gilden Way (E) 0.633 1.7 0.738 2.8 0.288 0.4 0.315 0.5 Sheering Road (S) 0.388 0.6 0.488 0.9 0.172 0.2 0.192 0.2 Gilden Way (W) 0.388 0.6 0.528 1.1 0.703 2.4 0.919 12.2
6.6.16 There is no material difference in the results compared to the 1.5FE assessment. In the AM peak hour, all arms operate with moderately greater RFCs, but not so much greater as to affect the conclusions.
/RQGRQ5RDG5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 6.6.17 London Road roundabout currently suffers from queuing through the junction from east to west in the AM peak as traffic heads towards the town centre. The situation is made worse by occasional hold ups in the space between this junction and the First Avenue junction. St Marks comprehensive school is accessed between the two roundabouts and vehicles frequently stop in a bus lay-by in front of the school to drop-off pupils. The existing junction layout is shown in Appendix E (Drawing 0881-GA-24).
7$%/(/21'2152$'-81&7,21 AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q London Road (N) 0.338 0.5 0.365 0.6 0.517 1.1 0.652 1.9 Gilden Way (E) 0.675 2.1 0.897 8.3 0.324 0.5 0.473 0.9 London Road (S) 0.520 1.1 0.628 1.7 0.199 0.2 0.314 0.5 First Avenue (W) 0.504 1.0 0.574 1.3 0.625 1.7 0.778 3.5
6.6.18 Much like the Sheering Road junction, the London Road junction will perform satisfactorily with existing geometry. The Gilden Way approach Arm to the east exceeds the HA recommended 0.85 capacity threshold in the design year in the PM peak. 6.6.19 Again, as ARCADY assumes inherently that all approach arms to a junction are used equally and, as there is an imbalance in turning movements and insufficient space on the exit arms to allow two lanes of exiting traffic. On the Gilden Way (E) and First Avenue (W) approach arms (which accommodate principally westbound and eastbound traffic respectively with relatively few left and right turn movements and have relatively high RFCs) it will therefore be necessary to introduce mitigation measures to the eastern and western exit arms to provide the modelled capacity on the ground. 6.6.20 Again, this simplification will affect the estimated capacity in the Do Minimum situation in which the junction would not achieve the modelled level of service; therefore the degree of change between existing and future conditions would be significantly less pronounced than suggested by the results.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 37 Transport Assessment
)LUVW$YHQXH5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 6.6.21 First Avenue junction is a major intersection between traffic north/south bound on the A414 (heading to Hertford / M11), and east/west bound traffic heading into and out of Harlow town centre. Congestion has been observed in the morning, arising from long queues of westbound traffic which block traffic on the north/south route. The situation is made worse by exit blocking in the westerly direction, due to a long slow moving queue on the B183 heading into Harlow town centre. The worst period of congestion was observed between 0800 and 0830 in the morning, and between 1700 and 1800 in the evening. During the PM peak hour the situation is reversed with traffic queuing on the western arm of the junction heading east. The existing junction layout is shown in Appendix E (Drawing 0881-GA-25).
7$%/(),567$9(18(-81&7,21 AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q A414 (N) 0.734 2.7 0.769 3.3 1.270 323.7 1.375 448.4 First Avenue (E) 1.073 97.6 1.281 335.6 0.700 2.3 0.795 3.8 A414 (S) 1.487 540.0 1.524 569.2 0.814 4.3 0.852 5.6 First Avenue (W) 0.544 1.2 0.594 1.5 0.977 24.1 1.080 123.1
6.6.22 In the Do Minimum scenarios, the A414 (S) and First Avenue (E) arms are shown as exceeding capacity during the AM peak hour and the A414 (N) and First Avenue (W) arms exceed capacity during the PM peak hour. Lane usage will affect the estimated capacity in the Do Minimum situation in which the junction would not achieve the modelled level of service. The introduction of the development traffic further increases the RFC. This junction does not perform satisfactorily mitigation measures are therefore considered later. 6.6.23 Also as there is an imbalance in turning movements and insufficient space on the exit arms to allow two lanes of exiting traffic it will be necessary to introduce mitigation measures to all arms to provide the modelled capacity on the ground. 6.6.24 Queues reported by ARCADY are unrealistic as a guide to the actual situation when the junction is exceeding capacity as, in reality, some vehicles would Divert where possible, travel at different times, or drivers may change mode of travel. Also, the model does not take account of constraints introduced by other junctions in the vicinity, or exit blocking.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 38 Transport Assessment
(GLQEXUJK:D\5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 6.6.25 The junction is a five-armed roundabout, where the A414 turns 90 degrees from north/south to east/west along the north of Harlow, serving a large area of industrial sites and comparison and convenience retail. The north-south route continues as the A1184 Cambridge Road leading to Bishops Stortford and the M11 Junction 8. Station Road leads south and east into Old Harlow, and Station Approach accesses Harlow Mill station and the industrial area surrounding it. The existing junction layout is shown in Appendix E (Drawing 0881-GA-26).
7$%/( (',1%85*+:$<-81&7,21 AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q Cambridge Way (N) 0.819 4.5 0.833 4.9 0.625 1.7 0.686 2.2 Edinburgh Way (E) 0.882 6.9 0.930 10.8 0.209 0.3 0.259 0.3 A414 (S) 0.804 4.0 0.870 6.4 0.376 0.6 0.413 0.7 Edinburgh Way (W) 0.324 0.5 0.341 0.5 0.788 3.7 0.853 5.7 Station Approach (N) 0.093 0.1 0.096 0.1 0.120 0.1 0.177 0.2
6.6.26 The Edinburgh Way junction will perform largely satisfactorily with existing geometry. The Edinburgh Way (E) approach Arm exceeds the HA recommended 0.85 capacity threshold in the design year in the PM peak; development traffic marginally worsens the RFC on this arm, and the A414 (S) arm exceeds the HA recommended 0.85 capacity threshold in the design year with development traffic. 6.6.27 While it is clear that the proposed development slightly increases flows at the Edinburgh Way junction, it is not proposed to provide any mitigation measures at this junction. The percentage impact of development traffic is moderate at most, as is the relative change in RFC. The scale of improvements required to offset the impact of the proposed development would be disproportionate to the benefit, which would not significantly improve operation of the junction. 6.6.28 Furthermore, improvements to this junction would be contrary to the guidance in ‘Guidance on Transport Assessment, DfT, 2007’ (Para 4.90): “In all cases, the transport mitigation plan or package of measures should focus on maximising sustainable accessibility to the development. At the outset, the mitigation plan should consider measures such as: improvements to development site layout to facilitate walking and cycling as well as accessibility to the local public transport infrastructure; improvements to walking and cycling provisions in the vicinity of the development site; and improvements to the local public transport network.”
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 39 Transport Assessment
&KXUFK/DQJOH\5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 6.6.29 Church Langley junction serves the residential development of Church Langley, and is the only access point from the main road into this residential area, which is self- contained with no vehicular access to other areas. The junction also serves the Newhall site and a large Tesco approximately 300m from the junction. The existing junction layout is shown in Appendix E (Drawing 0881-GA-27).
7$%/(&+85&+/$1*/(<:$<-81&7,21 AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q A414 (N) 0.759 3.1 0.804 4.0 0.923 10.9 0.955 16.9 Church Langley (E) 1.170 - 1.210 - 0.604 1.5 0.616 1.6 A414 (S) 0.764 3.2 0.773 3.4 0.847 5.4 0.883 7.3
6.6.30 The junction exceeds capacity on Church Langley Way during the AM peak in the Do Minimum condition, and exceeds the HA recommended 0.85 capacity threshold on the A414 during the PM peak. 6.6.31 Whilst it can be seen that the junction exceeds capacity in the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios, the impact of the development traffic on this junction is very low. Although improvements at this junction might be desirable, the development has a very small impact on traffic volume at Church Langley, and the relative change in RFC is small. It is therefore considered inappropriate to mitigate development traffic impact at this junction.
6HFRQG$YHQXH5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 6.6.32 The A1025 (2nd Avenue) provides a main arterial route south of Harlow towards the town centre. The junction also provides access to Potter Street, which serves a large residential area southeast of Harlow town. The existing junction layout is shown in Appendix E (Drawing 0881-GA-28).
7$%/(6(&21'$9(18(-81&7,21 AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q A414 (N) 1.153 - 1.192 - 0.858 5.9 0.878 7.0 Second Avenue (E) 1.688 - 1.700 - 0.829 4.6 0.867 5.9 A414 (S) 0.947 15.0 0.961 18.8 1.053 - 1.099 - Second Avenue (W) 0.847 5.3 0.862 5.9 1.400 - 1.426 -
6.6.33 The Second Avenue junction exceeds capacity in the Do Minimum scenarios. In 2018, in the morning the A414 north and Potter Street are over capacity. In the afternoon the situation is reversed with demand exceeding capacity on the A414 south and Second Avenue arms. Addition of the development traffic results in slight worsening of the situation on the critical arms. 11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 40 Transport Assessment
6.6.34 The impact of the proposed development traffic on this junction is negligible. It is clear from the analysis, and from observation on site that the junction demand is already at/exceeding capacity, and will continue to be in the future year irrespective of the development at the Gilden Way site.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 41 Transport Assessment
7 Proposed Development Mitigation
,1752'8&7,21 7.1.1 In considering the impact of the proposed development, the opportunities to improve accessibility of the site for each mode of transport is considered in turn, according to the following priority hierarchy:
Pedestrians
Cyclists
Public Transport
Private Car 7.1.2 The volume and impact of vehicular traffic generated by the site may be reduced at source by the provision of viable alternatives means of travel, by providing for sustainable transport modes.
3('(675,$16$1'&<&/,676 7.2.1 A key component of the development access strategy is the provision of sustainable links between the site and Old Harlow and Harlow town centre to the west. To achieve this, the following improvements to the pedestrian/cycle infrastructure are proposed, as summarised in Figure 8:
New pedestrian and cycle routes into and out of the site would be introduced at the main site access at the Sheering Road roundabout junction.
A new footway / cycleway along Gilden Way between the site access and the London Road junction is proposed to run along the northern verge. This would link with a national cycle route to the north at the Mulberry Green junction and an existing local cycle route at the London Road junction. This would include a new Toucan Crossing on the eastern arm of the London Road junction to connect to the existing local route on London Road.
A new footway linking the site to the west catering for the desire for movement between the site and Old Harlow would be provided via The Oxleys. Alternatively, this may be substituted (through a separate application) in the future for a route across the medieval village (Marigold Trust Land) to the west of the site. If this option is progressed, the route would be designed to protect the heritage site from the increased foot traffic by raising it above the level of the existing open space. The route crosses land that falls outside of the Client’s control and is therefore not included as part of this application. 7.2.2 These proposals form a comprehensive system of improvements to pedestrian and cycle accessibility which connects to the existing pedestrian and cycle infrastructure and provides improved access to the local amenities, facilities and public transport services.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 42 Transport Assessment
38%/,&75$163257675$7(*< 7.3.1 Section 3 of this Transport Assessment considers the existing public transport provision at the site, and in the wider area of Harlow. This section builds on the existing provision, and shows how the site will be made fully accessible by high quality public transport services. 7.3.2 In developing this public transport strategy, the key aims are:
To develop a bus service and strategy that seeks to promote the maximum mode share to public transport modes from the development. Aiming to deliver an uplift in the robust mode share assumed for traffic impact assessment purposes within this Transport Assessment.
To ultimately provide a sustainable service that is commercially viable in the longer term, and continues to operate without the requirement for ongoing financial support from either the local authority or the developer.
To link the development to key trip attractors, including Old Harlow, Harlow Town Centre and local and national rail services.
2SWLRQVIRUWKH3URYLVLRQRI3XEOLF7UDQVSRUW 7.3.3 Given the existing public transport network in Harlow, and the nature of the development, it is considered appropriate to serve the development with a regular bus service to key trip attractors. A route will be provided through the development, focussed on the main central boulevard that ensures all residents of the development will be within easy walking distance of a bus stop. It is proposed that three new bus stops will be implemented within the site to ensure that all dwellings within the development are located within 400m of a bus stop. 7.3.4 A number of options present themselves such as:
An extension of an existing service, such the service 8 which currently operates at a frequency of 4 services per hour between Harlow town centre and Old Harlow, approximately 500m to the west of the proposed development.
A diversion, and increase in the frequency of existing services, such as the service 7, which currently operates an hourly frequency between Sumners Farm, Harlow town centre and Churchgate Street, passing the development on the B183 immediately to the south.
Introducing a new bus service and enhancing service provision for other areas of Harlow through which it would operate, possibly including complimentary diversions to one or more existing services to make the most effective use of the additional coverage which can be achieved to provide an improved service to the town overall. 7.3.5 Each of the above options would use the same route through the development. In determining the most appropriate solution for bus service provision, a number of important factors should be considered:
Delivering attractive journey times and service frequencies, particularly to Harlow town centre.
Minimising any negative disruption to existing services.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 43 Transport Assessment
Cost-effectiveness of delivering an attractive service, ensuring most effective targeting of funding.
Providing links to the key areas which will attract trips from the development, including linking to rail services.
As the ultimate aim is to deliver a sustainable commercial service, the views of the main bus operator in the Harlow area will be important in determing the preferred strategy. 7.3.6 A detailed assessment of options was undertaken with the main local bus operator in 2007. A further review of options will now be undertaken before defining a preferred solution in the context of the different economic conditions to those at the time of the previous assessment. This will include discussions with the main local bus operator.
75$9(/3/$1 7.4.1 A Residential Travel Plan is included with the submission documents. The Travel Plan sets out key aims and objectives for reducing travel by private car to and from the development, and provides a framework for managing and introducing incentives for the use of sustainable travel modes and discouraging, where possible, driving alone by car.
-81&7,21,03529(0(176 7.5.1 Improvements are proposed to the Sheering Road, London Road, and First Avenue junctions to mitigate the impact of the vehicular traffic generated by the proposed development. These are the junctions closest to the site and which are impacted most significantly by the proposed development traffic. The proposed improvements will also provide some additional capacity to address future growth on the traffic network. No improvements are proposed to junctions on the A414 at Edinburgh Way, Church Langley and 2nd Avenue, as set out in section 6 and below. 7.5.2 The following proposals take no account of any highway improvement works proposed as part of the nearby Newhall development, with the exception of the new link road between London Road and the A414 as identified in the Local Plan.
(GLQEXUJK:D\5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 7.5.3 The proposed development traffic marginally worsens the existing capacity constraints at the Edinburgh Way junction. Given the moderate increase in traffic which would result from the proposed development and the limited impact of any potential improvements, no development specific mitigation is proposed.
&KXUFK/DQJOH\5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 7.5.4 The Church Langley junction is modelled as having exceeded capacity by 2018 in the ‘do minimum’ scenario as a result of the (very robust) background growth and the Newhall development. As the impact of the proposed development is negligible, especially when compared with the impact of the Newhall development, no development specific mitigation is proposed.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 44 Transport Assessment
6HFRQG$YHQXH5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 7.5.5 The Second Avenue roundabout exceeds capacity in the present day case as observed, and in the design years. Any additional traffic serves only to exacerbate the situation. The impact of the proposed development traffic on this junction is negligible, and the junction is remote from the site; consequently, no mitigation measures are proposed.
6KHHULQJ5RDG5RXQGDERXW 6LWH$FFHVV -XQFWLRQ 7.5.6 The following improvements have been identified for implementation at the Sheering Road roundabout junction to offset the impact of the proposed development, as shown in Appendix F (Drawing 0881-GA-29):
Site Access (N) – New Site Access arm to serve the development
Gilden Way (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction
Sheering Road (S) – No Change
Gilden Way (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to accommodate exit arm widening which also affords the opportunity to improve approach geometry in line with current roundabout design guidance and provide additional approach capacity. 7.5.7 The proposed geometry is modelled to achieve the following operational profile in the 2018 design year (this assumes a 3FE school option).
7$%/(6+((5,1*52$'-81&7,21352326('/$<287 AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q Site Access (N) 0.000 0.0 0.307 0.4 0.000 0.0 0.212 0.3 Gilden Way (E) 0.633 1.7 0.738 2.8 0.288 0.4 0.315 0.5 Sheering Road (S) 0.388 0.6 0.488 0.9 0.172 0.2 0.192 0.2 Gilden Way (W) 0.388 0.6 0.502 1.0 0.703 2.4 0.872 6.6
Note: DM scenarios are based on the existing layout, DS scenarios are based on the proposed layout 7.5.8 Based on the proposed geometry, the Sheering Road junction (site access) will perform generally satisfactorily. The Gilden Way approach Arm to the west exceeds the HA recommended 0.85 capacity threshold in the design year in the PM peak, but only marginally and is very likely (80%) to operate within capacity on the ground. 7.5.9 The improved exit geometry will result in a greater degree of improvement relative to the Do Minimum situation than is modelled, as this will allow more balanced entry flows on the critical approach arms. The impact of development would therefore be offset through the proposed mitigation works.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 45 Transport Assessment
/RQGRQ5RDG5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 7.5.10 The following improvements have been identified for implementation at the London Road roundabout junction to offset the impact of the proposed development, as shown in Appendix F (Drawing 0881-GA-30):
London Road (N) – No Change
Gilden Way (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction
London Road (S) – No Change
First Avenue (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction 7.5.11 The proposed geometry does not affect the approach capacity; the capacity modelling results are therefore as set out in section 6. The works will however allow more balanced entry flows on the critical approach arms. Based on the existing geometry, the London Road junction will perform generally satisfactorily. The Gilden Way (E) approach Arm exceeds the HA recommended 0.85 capacity threshold in the design year in the PM peak, but only marginally and is very likely (over 70%) to operate within capacity on the ground. 7.5.12 The improved exit geometry will result in a greater degree of improvement relative to the Do Minimum situation than is modelled. The impact of development would therefore be offset through the proposed mitigation works.
)LUVW$YHQXH5RXQGDERXW-XQFWLRQ 7.5.13 The following improvements have been identified for implementation at the Sheering Road roundabout junction to offset the impact of the proposed development, as shown in Appendix F (Drawing 0881-GA-31):
A414 (N) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on A414 (S) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated right turn lane.
First Avenue (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated left turn lane.
A414 (S) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on A414 (N) arm to exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated left turn lane.
First Avenue (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic and improved geometry to current design standards. 7.5.14 Significant improvements to the markings both on the approaches and within the circulatory carriageway, providing a spiral arrangement to clarify routing will also provide a significant improvement. It may be beneficial to implement Keep Clear or Yellow Box Clearway markings where blocking back occurs to minimise its impact.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 46 Transport Assessment
7.5.15 These junction improvements would not remove the wider systemic problems across the network characterised by the blocking back which is an existing problem. 7.5.16 The provision of a westbound bus lane between the London Road junction and the A414 was considered at an earlier time in the development of the scheme, but it is understood that ECC have pursued this separately in the interim period, and that there has been long significant local opposition. 7.5.17 The proposed geometry is modelled to achieve the following operational profile in the 2018 design year:
7$%/(),567$9(18(-81&7,21352326('/$<287 AM Peak PM Peak Arm 2018 DM 2018 DS 2018 DM 2018 DS RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q RFC Q A414 (N) 0.734 2.7 0.592 1.4 1.270 323.7 0.993 34.3 First Avenue (E) 1.073 97.6 0.923 11.0 0.700 2.3 0.640 1.8 A414 (S) 1.487 540.0 1.312 392.1 0.814 4.3 0.698 2.3 First Avenue (W) 0.544 1.2 0.681 2.1 0.977 24.1 1.152 208.2
Note: DM scenarios are based on the existing layout, DS scenarios are based on the proposed layout 7.5.18 Based on the proposed geometry, the First Avenue junction will perform generally in a similar manner to the Do Minimum scenario with existing geometry. 7.5.19 The improved exit geometry will result in a greater degree of improvement relative to the Do Minimum situation than is modelled, as this will allow more balanced entry flows on the critical approach arms. The impact of development would therefore be offset through the proposed mitigation works. This is particularly relevant at the First Avenue (W) approach arm where the PM peak modelling suggests a significant worsening. 7.5.20 On the First Avenue (W) approach arm the 2018 with Do Minimum flows are 970 ahead and left and 480 right; the 2018 Do Something flows are 1,080 ahead and left and 450 right. In the Do Minimum scenario therefore, the flows would be weighted towards one lane while with the improved approach and exit geometry, the lane usage would be balanced evenly.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 47 Transport Assessment
6800$5< 7.6.1 To mitigate the impact of the proposed development, and provide improved accessibility for all modes, with particular emphasis on sustainable modes (i.e. walking, cycling and public transport) the following infrastructure improvements are proposed.
New footway / cycleway along Gilden Way between the site access and the London Road junction, linking with a national cycle route to the north at the Mulberry Green junction and an existing local cycle route at the London Road junction. This includes a new toucan crossing on the eastern arm of the London Road junction.
New pedestrian connection towards Old Harlow via The Oxleys.
New bus stops within the development to accommodate the proposed new bus route (between Harlow town Centre, Harlow Town Station, and the proposed development).
New vehicular, pedestrian, cyclist and bus access from the site onto the Sheering Road roundabout junction on Gilden Way.
New vehicular, pedestrian, and bus access from the site onto Gilden Way to the east of the Sheering Road roundabout junction.
Improvements to the geometries of the following junctions to provide increased capacity to accommodate the proposed development traffic: – Sheering Road Roundabout (Site Access) Junction – Site Access (N) – New Site Access arm to serve the development – Gilden Way (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction – Sheering Road (S) – No Change – Gilden Way (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to accommodate exit arm widening which also affords the opportunity to improve approach geometry in line with current roundabout design guidance and provide additional approach capacity. – London Road Roundabout Junction – London Road (N) – No Change – Gilden Way (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction – London Road (S) – No Change – First Avenue (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 48 Transport Assessment
– First Avenue Roundabout Junction – A414 (N) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on A414 (S) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated right turn lane. – First Avenue (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated left turn lane. – A414 (S) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on A414 (N) arm to exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated left turn lane. – First Avenue (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic and improved geometry to current design standards.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 49 Transport Assessment
8 Summary and Conclusions
,1752'8&7,21 8.1.1 WSP Development and Transportation has been commissioned by Persimmon Homes, Barratt Strategic and Taylor Wimpey Developments (the Clients) to prepare a Transport Assessment (TA) which considers Travel, Transportation and Traffic issues associated with a Residential led development scheme in Harlow. The site is located north of the B183 Gilden Way. 8.1.2 Harlow District Council (HDC) is the Local Planning Authority and Essex County Council (ECC) is the Local Highway Authority. 8.1.3 The site area is approximately 38Ha and comprises undeveloped space including Greenbelt. For the purposes of this assessment, the proposed development is assumed to include: 1200 residential units, 33% of which will be affordable; A primary school; A small neighbourhood/community centre; A new vehicular access onto the Sheering Road roundabout junction (on Gilden Way); A secondary vehicular access onto Gilden Way; and Areas of open space and play areas. 8.1.4 The proposed development site was the subject of a Public Inquiry in May 2004 as part of the Local Plan formulation process. At that time the feasibility of the development in terms of its potential transportation and highways impact was considered, and a robust view has taken of the possible traffic generation and vehicle movements to and from the site. Much of the assessment carried out in this TA was undertaken between 2006 and 2008 and has been updated or validated to support a 2011 planning application where appropriate.
%$6(/,1(6,7($1'75$163257$7,21&217(;7 8.2.1 The B183 Gilden Way links Harlow to Chelmsford to the east and London Stansted Airport to the north. West of the site Gilden Way intersects with London Road which serves new residential areas at Newhall and Church Langley to the south; and with the A414. The A414 junction provides access to the west into Harlow New Town, north to Bishops Stortford and south to the M11 junction 7. 8.2.2 The key junctions and road links in the area are: Sheering Road roundabout junction; London Road roundabout junction; First Avenue roundabout junction; Edinburgh Way roundabout junction; Church Langley Way roundabout junction; and Second Avenue roundabout junction. 8.2.3 Personal Injury Accident data has been obtained for the road network affected by the proposed development for the 5 year period from 1st November 2005 to 31st October 2010. In total there were 72 accidents over the 5 year study period with only one fatal accident and 14 serious accidents. The accidents resulted in injuries to 10 motorcyclists, 1 cyclist and 11 pedestrians. Accidents on the road network surrounding the site indicate no inherent traffic safety problems. 8.2.4 2001 Census Data for Old Harlow shows that the mode split for residents of Old Harlow Ward for travel to work is in general comparable to the average for Harlow District. Rail use is higher than the average, and bus use lower, which may be a reflection of the relative proximity of Old Harlow to a rail station (Harlow Mill).
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 50 Transport Assessment
%$6(/,1(6867$,1$%/($&&(66,%,/,7< 8.3.1 A number of amenities are available in the local area, many of which are in Old Harlow around a 1000m walk to the west of the site. Eight bus routes are accessible within walking distance of the site, these are accessible from four nearby bus stop; the best service frequency is available from Old Harlow. 8.3.2 Harlow has two well served rail stations on the Cambridge to London Liverpool Street line operated by National Express East Anglia. Trains also run on the line between Stratford (London) and Stansted Airport. Harlow Town rail station is approximately 1.6 km north of Harlow town centre and 4km west of the site. The station may be accessed by bus or on foot from the town. Harlow Mill station is situated north of Old Harlow village, around a 1500m walk of the site. The route to the station from the site is currently via either Old Road, or Curteys and Priory Road. London trains stop twice hourly at Harlow Mill during both peak hours and during the day. Trains to London Stratford and Stansted Airport stop once an hour during the day and evening. 8.3.3 There is an extensive cycle network throughout Harlow, linking to the residential estates to the south and east of the town centre. Available local cycle routes near the site include: London Road between Gilden Way and Church Langley (an off road dedicated lane on the east side London Road); Mandela Avenue to the west of Gilden Way. This route then links south to Mark Hall South and Netteswell; and Edinburgh Way to the west of the A414 leading to Harlow Town rail station (an off road dedicated lane).
%$6(/,1(+,*+:$<75$)),&&21',7,216 8.4.1 Manual Classified counts were carried out on the local road network in east Harlow on Thursday April 1st 2004 during peak hours from 0730-0930 and 1630-1830. Additional surveys were carried out in 2007 between 8th and 14th January 2007 for comparison with the 2004 flows. To further review the traffic growth on the local road network since 2004, additional survey data has been obtained for the period 1999 to 2010 to identify trends. The purpose of this was validate (or otherwise challenge) the 2004 survey data for use as a baseline for modelling future road traffic conditions. 8.4.2 The AADT and peak hour flows in 2004 and 2010 have been found to be comparable; it is therefore reasonable to conclude that the 2004 surveys remain a reasonable representation of current prevailing traffic conditions and can be transposed to 2010 as a valid baseline for traffic impact modelling.
352326(''(9(/230(17 8.5.1 The proposed development is expected to generate in the region of 525 vehicle trips in the AM Peak Hour and 625 vehicle trips in the PM peak hour. In total, the site may generate in the region of 1,100 person trips in the AM peak hour and 1,050 person trips in the PM peak hour. This assumes a 1.5 form entry school on the site; if a 3 form entry school is pursued by ECC, the site may generate a further 200 vehicle trips in the AM Peak Hour and 20 vehicle trips in the PM peak hour. In total, the site may generate in the region of 1
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 51 Transport Assessment
8.5.2 The distribution of development traffic is assumed to be for a design year of 2018 (assumed to be the year of completion). The nearby Newhall Development, which is taken as being a committed development, is assumed to have progressed by that time, an associated link road is therefore also proposed to be completed. 8.5.3 Junction capacity assessment has been carried out for the following two scenarios, for a 2018 design year:
Do Minimum (2010 Base + Newhall + Other Background Growth)
Do Something (Do Minimum + Proposed Development)
352326(''(9(/230(17$66(660(17 8.6.1 The junctions considered as part of this assessment were agreed with Essex County Council at the scoping stage, and have been confirmed as being of a suitable range to cover all those junctions on which development traffic increase total traffic by 5% or more.
352326(''(9(/230(170,7,*$7,21 8.7.1 To offset the impact of the proposed development, the following mitigation measures are proposed:
New footway / cycleway along Gilden Way between the site access and the London Road junction, linking with a national cycle route to the north at the Mulberry Green junction and an existing local cycle route at the London Road junction. This includes a new toucan crossing on the eastern arm of the London Road junction.
New pedestrian connection towards Old Harlow via The Oxleys.
New bus stops within the development to accommodate the proposed new bus route (between Harlow town Centre, Harlow Town Station, and the proposed development).
New vehicular, pedestrian, cyclist and bus access from the site onto the Sheering Road roundabout junction on Gilden Way.
New vehicular, pedestrian, and bus access from the site onto Gilden Way to the east of the Sheering Road roundabout junction.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 52 Transport Assessment
Improvements to the geometries of the following junctions to provide increased capacity to accommodate the proposed development traffic: – Sheering Road Roundabout (Site Access) Junction – Site Access (N) – New Site Access arm to serve the development – Gilden Way (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction – Sheering Road (S) – No Change – Gilden Way (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to accommodate exit arm widening which also affords the opportunity to improve approach geometry in line with current roundabout design guidance and provide additional approach capacity. – London Road Roundabout Junction – London Road (N) – No Change – Gilden Way (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction – London Road (S) – No Change – First Avenue (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on Gilden Way (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction – First Avenue Roundabout Junction – A414 (N) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on A414 (S) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated right turn lane. – First Avenue (E) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (W) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated left turn lane. – A414 (S) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on A414 (N) arm to exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic, and a dedicated left turn lane. – First Avenue (W) – Exit Arm geometry improved to allow two lanes of ahead traffic on First Avenue (E) arm to merge upon exit from the junction. Entry Arm Geometry improved to provide 2 lanes for ahead traffic and improved geometry to current design standards.
11110881 Land to the North of Gilden Way, Harlow 53 Transport Assessment
Appendices, Figures & Tables