Asia's Uncertain Lng Future

the national bureau of asian research nbr special report #44 | november 2013 asia’s uncertain lng future By Michael Bradshaw, Mikkal E. Herberg, Amy Myers Jaffe, Damien Ma, and Nikos Tsafos ++ cover 2 The NBR Special Report provides access to current research on special topics conducted by the world’s leading experts in Asian affairs. The views expressed in these reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of other NBR research associates or institutions that support NBR. The National Bureau of Asian Research is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution dedicated to informing and strengthening policy. NBR conducts advanced independent research on strategic, political, economic, globalization, health, and energy issues affecting U.S. relations with Asia. Drawing upon an extensive network of the world’s leading specialists and leveraging the latest technology, NBR bridges the academic, business, and policy arenas. The institution disseminates its research through briefings, publications, conferences, Congressional testimony, and email forums, and by collaborating with leading institutions worldwide. NBR also provides exceptional internship opportunities to graduate and undergraduate students for the purpose of attracting and training the next generation of Asia specialists. NBR was started in 1989 with a major grant from the Henry M. Jackson Foundation. Funding for NBR’s research and publications comes from foundations, corporations, individuals, the U.S. government, and from NBR itself. NBR does not conduct proprietary or classified research. The organization undertakes contract work for government and private-sector organizations only when NBR can maintain the right to publish findings from such work. To download issues of the NBR Special Report, please visit the NBR website http://www.nbr.org. This report may be reproduced for personal use. Otherwise, the NBR Special Report may not be reproduced in full without the written permission of NBR. When information from NBR publications is cited or quoted, please cite the author and The National Bureau of Asian Research. This is the forty-fourth NBR Special Report. NBR is a tax-exempt, nonprofit corporation under I.R.C. Sec. 501(c)(3), qualified to receive tax-exempt contributions. © 2013 by The National Bureau of Asian Research. Printed in the United States of America. For further information about NBR, contact: The National Bureau of Asian Research 1414 NE 42nd Street, Suite 300 Seattle, Washington 98105 206-632-7370 Phone 206-632-7487 Fax [email protected] E-mail http://www.nbr.org nbr special report #44 | november 2013 asia’s uncertain lng future TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Mikkal E. Herberg The New Geography of Asian LNG 7 Nikos Tsafos China’s Coming Decade of Natural Gas? 23 Damien Ma Russian LNG Exports to Asia: Current Status and Future Prospects 37 Michael Bradshaw How the Shale Revolution Will Transform U.S. Policy 51 Amy Myers Jaffe Asia’s Uncertain LNG Future: 61 Conclusions and Implications for the United States and Asia Mikkal E. Herberg 67 Appendix: NBR’s Initiatives on Energy and Environmental Security the national bureau of asian research nbr special report #44 | november 2013 Introduction Mikkal E. Herberg MIKKAL E. HERBERG is a Senior Lecturer in the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California–San Diego and Research Director of the Energy Security Program at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). He can be reached at <[email protected]>. 1 sia’s incredible economic growth has powered an enormous increase in energy demand over the past two decades. The region has now become “ground zero” for global energy demand growth. Demand for every fuel type and energy source has soared to meet skyrocketing consumption and to prevent energy from becoming a bottleneck to economic growth Aand job creation. As demand has risen, Asia’s dependence on imported supplies has increased as well. While this has led to new and deeper trade ties between Asia and its neighbors, such import dependence has also fostered regional anxieties—particularly among policymakers wary that it will increase regional vulnerabilities to global market shocks. For both policymakers and consumers across the region, energy security thus remains not only a critical strategic and economic concern but increasingly an issue defined by the search for reliable and affordable supplies. In this search for greater energy security, Asia has rising hopes that natural gas can become a key component of its future energy mix. Indeed, there is enormous scope for the region to increase its gas use and benefit from lower emissions and energy-supply diversification. While natural gas use in Asia has been rising sharply in recent years, natural gas overall is still relatively underutilized. For example, outside Asia, natural gas makes up 30% of global energy use, whereas within the region gas makes up only 11.3% of total energy use. In part this is because of China’s very low gas share of only 5% of total energy in 2012. But even excluding China, the region’s gas share is still only 19%.1 As Asia seeks to expand its use of natural gas, demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will grow. Much of the gas it does use comes in the form of imported LNG, due to the long maritime distances in Asia that separate markets from supplies. In fact, the region has traditionally accounted for two-thirds of the global LNG market. Japan and South Korea alone have been the large base-load buyers of LNG, typically accounting for over half the global LNG market. And Asia’s overall LNG consumption is expected to grow dramatically over the next twenty years as China and India boost their LNG imports and as Japan and South Korea substitute LNG for declining use of nuclear energy. Even Southeast Asia, traditionally a significant exporter of natural gas to Northeast Asia, is seeing a dramatic shift in consumption and will also become increasingly dependent on imported LNG. This relatively rosy picture for LNG demand is, however, highly uncertain. Perhaps most importantly, China’s potential LNG demand depends on many factors, including the scale of pipeline gas imports from Central Asia and Russia, the future of potential shale gas production inside China, domestic demand policies, and the pace of domestic gas price and industry reform. In terms of volume, China’s choices could have the single largest impact on the region’s future LNG demand levels. Japan’s future LNG demand depends heavily on the very uncertain pace and scale of the return of nuclear power generation in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. South Korea also faces resistance to expanded nuclear use and uncertainty over possible pipeline gas supplies from the Russian Far East that weigh heavily on future projections of LNG demand. The pace of growth in LNG use in Southeast Asia and India is likewise subject to wide variability. On the supply side, there is also significant uncertainty about the extent to which Asia can rely on LNG to meet its future gas needs. Major new supplies are expected over the next decade from Australia, Russia, the United States (including potentially Alaska), Canada, and offshore East Africa, and there are further possible new supplies from the Persian Gulf. Australia’s new projects put the country on track to become the largest LNG exporter in the world by 2020, but further expansion is threatened by rising cost pressures. Potential U.S. and Canadian LNG exports to Asia have been stalled by domestic politics, objections from indigenous populations, and environmental constraints. 1 All figures in this paragraph are from BP plc, “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” June 2013. INTRODUCTION u HERBERG 3 Potential LNG supplies from the Russian Far East remain subject to opaque Kremlin energy politics and competition between Russia’s two major state energy firms—Gazprom and Rosneft. Finally, Persian Gulf supplies are, as always, threatened by chronic geopolitical uncertainty. Moreover, the future of Asia’s LNG consumption and supply growth will depend heavily on the evolution of LNG prices. The region’s current LNG prices, because they are linked to sky-high oil prices, are nearly four times U.S. natural gas prices and almost double average European natural gas prices. Asian LNG consumers, especially in Japan and South Korea, are thus looking for more competitive prices. A key benefit of potential new LNG imports from the United States would be the introduction of competitive hub-based gas pricing that eventually could help reduce Asia’s high LNG prices. Hence, growth in LNG could bring enormous benefits to Asia in terms of energy security and supply diversification, as well as a cleaner energy mix. Nevertheless, as the preceding discussion illustrates, there are major uncertainties in the outlook for LNG markets and pricing, as well as in the domestic politics and geopolitics of LNG. To address these issues, the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) organized its ninth annual Energy Security Workshop in Washington, D.C., on June 21, 2013. Building on NBR’s ongoing initiative to bring together policymakers, industry leaders, and key stakeholders concerned with Asia’s energy future, the annual workshop convenes senior specialists for high-level discussions on the future of Asian energy markets. The arguments presented at this event are then used to inform discussion throughout the year, as well as in this final report. This year’s program—“Asia’s Uncertain LNG Future”—focuses on the implications of growing LNG consumption and production for regional energy security in the Asia-Pacific. As in past years, we are grateful for the generous support of our sponsors—the Asian Development Bank, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil—whose contributions enable us to examine the central energy-security challenges facing the United States and the Asia-Pacific today.

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