Final Masters Thesis
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RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND INDIRECT THIRD-PARTY CONFLICT INTERVENTION: A HYPOTHESIS FROM THE LEBANESE CIVIL WAR A Master’s Thesis by HAIG PHILIP SHISHMANIAN Department of International Relations !hsan Do"ramacı Bilkent University Ankara March 2014 To my dear parents, Shavarsh Mark and Sosy Maral, who continually reflect Sacrificial Love To my dear parents, Shavarsh Mark and Sosy Maral, who continually reflect Sacrificial Love RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND INDIRECT THIRD-PARTY CONFLICT INTERVENTION: A HYPOTHESIS FROM THE LEBANESE CIVIL WAR Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences of !hsan Do"ramacı Bilkent University by HAIG PHILIP SHISHMANIAN In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS in THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS !HSAN DO#RAMACI B!LKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA March 2014 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Assist. Prof. Dr. Özgür Özdamar Supervisor I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Assist. Prof. Dr. Nil Seda $atana Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Assist. Prof. Dr. !lker Aytürk Examining Committee Member Approval of the Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences --------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Erdal Erel Director ABSTRACT RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND INDIRECT THIRD-PARTY CONFLICT INTERVENTION: A HYPOTHESIS FROM THE LEBANESE CIVIL WAR Shishmanian, Haig Philip M.A., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Assist. Prof. Dr. Özgür Özdamar February 2014 Ethnically and religiously-identified groups are frequently involved in conflict. Such conflicts attract forms of third-party intervention which often favor one ethno-religious group over another by means other than direct military intervention on the part of the affiliated third-party government. This study first highlights two themes in two areas of literature: Studies of the role of religion in politics discuss types of religious grouping, understood generally as ‘religious affiliation’, while conflict intervention literature suggests several forms of intervention apart from direct military intervention but lacks a detailed description of a variable encompassing all such forms. This variable is termed ‘indirect intervention’, the definition of which, synthesized from the literature, is this thesis’ first contribution. This thesis also considers that, though contemporary international politics features religiously-affiliated third-parties indirectly aiding ‘brethren’ in conflict, a causal relationship between the two has previously only been postulated and should be explored. By carrying out a hypothesis-generating case study of religious affiliation and indirect intervention in the case of the Western support of the Maronite Arab community’s parties and militias during the Lebanese Civil War, it is iii hypothesized that religious affiliation causes indirect intervention. It is anticipated that the generated hypothesis will be confirmed by future large-N studies of all such cases during a span of time, with a specific emphasis on the dynamics of conflict intervention in the Middle East and North Africa. Keywords: Conflict, Third-Party Intervention, Indirect Intervention, Religious Identity, Religious Affiliation, Lebanon, Lebanese Civil War, Middle East iv ÖZET D!N! MENSUB!YET VE DOLAYLI ÜÇÜNCÜ TARAF ÇATI$MA MÜDAHALES!: LÜBNAN !Ç SAVA$I'NA DA!R B!R H!POTEZ Shishmanian, Haig Philip Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası !li%kiler Tez Yöneticisi: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Özgür Özdamar Mart 2014 Etnik ve dini tanımlanmı% gruplar çatı%malara sıkça katılırlar. Böyle çatı%malar, ço"unlukla bir etno-dini grubun di"eri üstünde desteklendi"i üçüncü taraf müdahalesi türlerinin ilgisini çeker. Kullanılan müdahale araçları ço"unlukla do"rudan askeri müdahaleki araçlardan farklıdır. Bu çalı%ma ilk olarak literatürün iki alanında iki farklı temayı vurgular. (1) Siyasette dinin rolü üzerine çalı%malar, genellikle dini mensubiyet olarak anla%ılan dini grupla%ma türlerini kapsar. (2) Çatı%ma müdahalesi literatürü, do"rudan askeri müdahalenin dı%ında, müdahalenin birçok türünü içerir; fakat, böyle türleri kapsayan bir de"i%kenin detaylı açıklaması yeterli de"ildir. Tanımı literatürden kavramsalla%tırılan dolaylı müdahale de"i%keni bu tezin ilk katkısıdır. Bu tez aynı zamanda gözönünde bulundurmaktadır ki çatı%malarda dinen tanımlanmı% üçüncü tarafların ‘karde%lere’ dolaylı yardım edi%i günümüz uluslararası siyasetinde ortaya çıkmasına ra"men, bu ikisi arasındaki nedensel bir ili%ki daha önce ifade edilmi% ama daha ara%tırılmalıdır. Lübnan !ç Sava%ı sırasında Maruni Arap toplulukların partilerine ve silahlı güçlerine Batılı deste"in verilmesi olayında dini mensubiyet ve dolaylı müdahalenin ele alındı"ı v hipotez-üreten vaka analizi yaparak, bu tez dini mensubiyetin dolaylı müdahaleye neden oldu"unu hipotezle%tirir. Ortado"u ve Kuzey Afrika’daki çatı%ma müdahalesi süreçlerine özel bir vurguyla, üretilen bu hipotez gelecekte belli bir zamanda böyle olayların büyük datasetlerini ve çoklu de"i%kenlerini içeren çalı%malarda desteklenebilir. Anahtar kelimeler: Çatı%ma, Üçüncü Taraf Müdahalesi, Dolaylı Müdahalesi, Dini Kimlik, Dini Mensubiyet, Lübnan, Lübnan !ç Sava%ı, Orta Do"u vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am very thankful for many individuals’ contribution to this study, though I can only list a few. I thank my advisor, Dr. Özgür Özdamar, for the support, feedback and guidance he provided throughout the writing process. His knowledge of foreign policy analysis and academic advice contributed invaluably both to this study and to my education. I thank Dr. Nil $atana and Dr. !lker Aytürk, who generously agreed to be part of my thesis committee. Dr. Nil $atana’s feedback in the area of conflict and intervention studies, both during our Research Methods course and thesis defense, contributed significantly to this study’s relevance, while Dr. !lker Aytürk’s knowledge of the politics of the Middle East contributed especially to the historical aspects of the study. I also thank Dr. Serdar Güner, whose course on Religion and International Relations Theories stimulated my literature review. I would like to thank the kind and tireless Fatma Toga Yılmaz, our department secretary, for her administrative support in arranging for my thesis defense. Lastly, I thank Dr. Pınar Bilgin, whose course in International Relations Theory provided a great platform for learning how to critically review literature as a student of international relations. vii I was also blessed with several friends who contributed to the completion of this thesis. Toygar Halistoprak was a great help in brainstorming and giving advice during my proposal, as well as an example of a compassionately- concerned researcher. Erkam Sula enthusiastically offered advice in how to carry out graduate-level research to its completion. Uluç Karaka% generously devoted his time to helping me translate the abstract to Turkish. Mano and Raffi Chilingirian, Hovsep Seraydarian, Serop Ohanian, and Harout Djibian’s perspectives were very helpful in focusing my reading about the sectarian politics of Lebanon during the Civil War. U"ur Yılmaz was a great encouragement to be writing, laughing, and drinking coffee alongside, especially in the final weeks. Benjamin Reimold was a constant, caring source of brainstorming and feedback, allowing me to vent, and always distracting me at the right times with youtube videos and intriguing articles. I am lastly thankful for the support of my dear friend, Sercan Canbolat, with whom it was an honor to spend countless hours working together on everything from vocabulary, graduate school applications, and our theses, to exchanging feedback, planning for the future, and always having enough time for laughs and good conversation. I thank my sister - Nyree, brothers - Aram and Shaant, grandmother - Zdenka, uncles, aunts, cousins, and amazing friends at home for their constant encouragement and prayer for me during my time at Bilkent. Last but not least, I thank my parents, Shavarsh Mark and Sosy Maral, for their love, encouragement, prayer, and the parental blessing of being taken seriously. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................iii ÖZET.......................................................................................................................v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................vii TABLE OF CONTENTS.........................................................................................ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION..............................................................................1 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW...................................................................8 2.1 Introduction...........................................................................................8 2.2 Religion and International Politics.....................................................10 2.3 Religion as a social phenomenon........................................................13