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Plutonium March 1998 No20

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Plutonium March 1998 No20 Winter 1998 No.20 Cover: Streets of Arles, Southern France Tourists may be disappointed if the roofs are covered with solar power panels. Nuclear power produces almost 80 percent of France's energy supply and conserves this culture. Contents ● Opinion U. S. Should Deploy More NPPs ● Lecture 8 Theater Missile Defense (TMD) and Japan's Security Satoshi Morimoto, Ken Jimbo, Ken Suzuki, Yoichiro Koizumi ● Letter Russian Economy Turning Upward -- Great Accomplishment from ISTC -- Norihiko Yokoyama ● Pluto 19 Akari (Lights) Shigeru Gotoh ● Pu-Series 17 How to Proceed with R&Ds on FBR Shunsuke Kondo ● Nourriture-3 Wine･･･My Friend (I) Yuji Tsushima ● Views of Nuclear Power Stations From The Ancient Manyo-shu to Modern UFOs ● Info-Clip Plutonium Management in Japan Major Nuclear Developments in Japan -- Review of 1997 -- Plutonium Winter No.20 Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Juzen Bldg.,Room 801, 2-9-6, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan TEL : 03-3591-2081 FAX : 03-3591-2088 Publisher Takashi Mukaibo Executive Editor Shigeru Gotoh Editorial Office Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Date of Issue : March 2, 1998 Apr. 21 1998 Copyright (C) 1998 Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle [email protected] Opinion U.S. Should Deploy More NPPs The Third Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP3), held in Kyoto in December last year, is over. Numerical goals for the advanced industrial nations to cut CO2 emissions were set, and the conference seems to have enjoyed a happy ending. The ways of attaining those emissions cutting goals will depend on the effort of the individual country, but it is surprising that there was so little discussion regarding the most effective method of cutting CO2 emissions: nuclear power. To say "The difficulties faced by government officials from countries where nuclear power is developed were evident" may sound nice, but it seems to me that the truth is that they felt threatened by the uproar against nuclear power, and gave into pressure from those with a short-sighted viewpoint. Machines are honest. In computer simulations to predict future energy demands, if the statement that "the best source of electricity to reduce CO2 emissions is nuclear power" is factored in, the computer will replace all the thermal power plants with nuclear power plants in the 30-year future world projections. This is natural, because other factors such as the issues over nuclear power plant construction site selection, politics, and feelings of the local residents are impossible to include in the calculations. But just such a policy is inevitable if we are to tackle global warming, otherwise there will be no future for this planet. If the sea level rises, territory loss will not be a problem only for small island countries, but also for developed countries. China produced 12.6 percent of the global CO2 emissions in 1994, and their emissions are expected to increase with future economic progress. China is also positive about utilizing nuclear power, and plans to start generating 20,000 MW in 2010, and 40,000 to 60,000 MW in 2020. The countries of former Soviet Union are producing 11 percent of the global CO2 emissions, which is a drop from 16.5 percent in 1990 due to their sluggish economy. But there is a good possibility that their CO2 emissions will return to the previous levels as their economy gradually recovers. In Russia, eight plants were under construction at the end of 1996, and will start operation in due course. And what about the U.S., which produces the unchanging top amount of CO2 emissions, 25 percent of the world levels? They have 109 nuclear power plants, the largest number in the world, and as much as 20.1% of their entire electric output was from nuclear power in 1995. Nevertheless, there have been absolutely no new orders for nuclear power plants after the eight plants ordered in 1973. Although the U.S. used to be the world leader and instructor on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, the number of nuclear power plants in operation is the only vestige of that time to be seen today. In the U.S., now is a very good time for the government to further promote nuclear power. It should turn this corner and support nuclear power in order to reduce CO2 emissions. By doing so, they could set a good example to the world of nuclear power providing reliable energy resources for the future of the world. We, as members of the technically developed countries, must not only pay attention to domestic issues but also act with a view of the future of the world. If not, there will be no solutions to environmental issues. Nuclear power requires no oxygen, and the amount of waste is dramatically less than the alternative combustion engines. It has been well-known from the beginning that nuclear power is an environment-friendly power system, and the disposal technology for its waste is advanced far beyond other industrial wastes. In addition to usual ideas about the introduction of nuclear power to solve the issues of resources and economy, incentives to introduce nuclear power as a way to improve the environment of each locality, nation, and the earth as a whole, are something very respectable. Executive Editor [Back to No.20 Contents] March 2 1998 Copyright (C) 1998 Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle [email protected] Lecture 8 Theater Missile Defense (TMD) and Japan's Security Satoshi Morimoto, Ken Jimbo, Ken Suzuki, Yoichiro Koizumi The theater missile defense (TMD), proposed by the United States, is one of prominent security issues among the many proposals offered to establish a new security system in the Asian area after the Cold War. Japan inevitably face with this TMD initiative as a future national defense considerations. However, the concepts, functions and the effects of TMD are not well known. Hence, we would like to carry a four different authors, joint article. We would be very pleased if this article proved helpful to the peace keeping issues in the Asian area including Japan.(Editor) Abstract Dealing with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in Northeast Asia after the Cold War, in particular to deal with the North Korean nuclear and missile development plans and the ballistic missile deployment by China and Russia, are the important themes of Japan's security policy. The U.S. and Japan have examined effective defense measures against the missile threats, while estimating the progress, the future course of development plans and the deployment of those missiles in Northeast Asia. The plans for ballistic missile defenses (BMD) had already started with the 1980's U.S. - Japan strategic defense initiative (SDI), and the main theme of the 1990's has been the theater threat in Northeast Asia. As a result of these earlier plans, theater missile defense (TMD), which is a part of the U.S. BMD programs, seems promising as a defense system to be applied to the future security environment surrounding Japan. Important elements for Japan to evaluate, with the introduction of TMD, include the type and extent of the threat, the cost-effectiveness of TMD introduction, and the significance of its introduction to Japan's security especially to the U.S.-Japan relationship and the Japan's defense system. It is remarkably necessary to consider these elements from a comprehensive point of view. In addition, 1. political aspects, 2. legal aspects, 3. technological aspects, 4. the impact on current defense policies and defense systems, and 5. the control of the information flows are the specific problems with which Japan faces. It is important for both the U.S. and Japan to search out the measures for solving the problems through exchanging the opinions in times during Tokyo's decision making process to introduce TMD, and also after the decision is eventually made. This article aims to analyze the necessity of TMD in the Japan's security plans, to present the current TMD development procedure in the U.S., to explain the various problems which Japan will face with the introduction of TMD, and finally to examine possible further measures. Satoshi Morimoto, Special Lecturer, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University Ken Jimbo, Student, Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University Ken Suzuki, Student, Faculty of Science and Technology, Keio University Yoichiro Koizumi, Student, Faculty of Law, Keio University History and the Background of the TMD Development The stable balance of nuclear deterrence between the U.S. and the Soviet Union was somehow maintained throughout the Cold War, mainly due to the acquisition of various means of retaliation measures with high survivability (in particular the development of the nuclear-powered submarine, SLBM) and the regulation of missile defense measures (the ABM Treaty). The ABM Treaty concluded between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in 1972 strictly regulated the development of missile defense systems in both countries which had been promoted in the 1960's. Various factors were involved in the background of the U.S. agreement to the ABM Treaty: Grown technological feasibility of the missile defense system, the necessity for a brake on the arms race competitions, and the development of the diplomacy to negotiate with the Soviet Union.(1) In the 1970's, a situation of mutual assured destruction (MAD) was brought about by the following two factors: (1) balance of strategic nuclear forces was struck between the U.S. and the Soviet Union (parity of strategic nuclear forces), (2) the ABM Treaty regulation of missile defense (mutual vulnerability). Under those circumstances, the U.S. gave a priority to their options for retaliatory measures against nuclear weapons, de-emphasizing missile defense as a measure for gaining stability in an age of MAD, due to its necessity in their strategies.
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