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The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2010-2011: Nuclear Power in a Post-Fukushima World

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The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2010-2011: Nuclear Power in a Post-Fukushima World THE WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY STATUS REPORT 201 0–2011 Nuclear Power in a Post-Fukushima World 25 YEARS AFTER THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt Steve Thomas Mycle Schneider Consulting THE WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY STATUS REPORT 2010–2011 Nuclear Power in a Post-Fukushima World 25 Years After the Chernobyl Accident By Mycle Schneider Independent Consultant, Mycle Schneider Consulting, Paris (France) Project Coordinator and Lead Author Antony Froggatt Independent Consultant, London, U.K. Steve Thomas Professor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University, U.K. Modeling and Graphic Design Julie Hazemann Director of EnerWebWatch, Paris, France Editing Lisa Mastny Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Paris, Berlin, Washington, April 2011 Commissioned by Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. with the support of the Greens-EFA in the European Parliament About the Authors Mycle Schneider is an independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy based in Paris. He founded the Energy Information Agency WISE-Paris in 1983 and directed it until 2003. Since 1997, he has provided information and consulting services to the Belgian Energy Minister, the French and German Environment Ministries, USAID, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Greenpeace, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the Worldwide Fund for Nature, the European Commission, the European Parliament’s Scientific and Technological Option Assessment Panel and its General Directorate for Research, the Oxford Research Group, and the French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety. Since 2004, Mycle has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies lecture series for the International MSc in Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering Program at the French Ecole des Mines in Nantes. In 1997, along with Japan’s Jinzaburo Takagi, he received the Right Livelihood Award, also known as the “Alternative Nobel Prize.” Antony Froggatt works as independent European energy consultant based in London. Since 1997, he has worked as a freelance researcher and writer on energy and nuclear policy issues in the EU and neighboring states. He has worked extensively on EU energy issues for European governments, the European Commission and Parliament, environmental NGOs, commercial bodies, and media. He has given evidence to inquiries and hearings in the parliaments of Austria, Germany, and the EU. He is a part time senior research fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs – Chatham House in London. Antony works intensively with environmental groups across Europe, particularly on energy markets and policy and helped to establish a network on energy efficiency. He is a regular speaker at conferences, universities, and training programs across the region. Prior to working freelance, Antony served for nine years as a nuclear campaigner and co-coordinator for Greenpeace International. Steve Thomas is a professor of energy policy at the Public Services International Research Unit (PSIRU) of the University of Greenwich, where he has been senior researcher since 2001. He holds a BSc (honors) degree in Chemistry from Bristol University and has been working in energy policy analysis since 1976. His main research interests are reforms of energy industries, economics, and policy toward nuclear power, and corporate policies of energy industry companies. Recent clients include Public Services International, the European Federation of Public Service Unions, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (USA), Energywatch (UK), and Greenpeace International. Acknowledgments The authors wish to thank Amory B. Lovins, Rebecca Harms, and Chris Flavin for their support for this project. The project coordinator wishes to express his sincere gratitude to his co-authors for their invaluable contributions, creative thinking, and impeccable reliability. Thank you also to M.V. Ramana and Walt Patterson for their useful comments on a draft version of the report. Special thanks to Julie Hazemann who has not only contributed the fundamental database work but who has been throughout a permanent, rock-solid support under insupportable conditions. Finally, a big thanks to Lisa Mastny for her editing efforts under impossible time constraints. Contacts Publisher Worldwatch Institute www.worldwatch.org Authors Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt Steve Thomas Phone: +33-1-69 83 23 79 Ph: +44-20-79 23 04 12 Ph: +44-208 331 9056 Email: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] M. Schneider, A. Froggatt, S. Thomas World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2010-2011 2 Table of Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 7 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 9 General Overview Worldwide ........................................................................................................... 11 Overview of Operation, Power Generation, Age Distribution ...................................................... 11 Overview of Current New Build ................................................................................................... 14 Potential Newcomer Countries .......................................................................................................... 19 Power Plants Under Construction ................................................................................................. 21 Contracts Signed ........................................................................................................................... 22 Decisions Announced by Industry and Governments ................................................................... 23 Nuclear Economics .............................................................................................................................. 25 Reactor Licensing and Economics ................................................................................................ 25 Implementation Costs of Nuclear Power Plants ........................................................................... 27 Developments in 2010 .................................................................................................................. 32 Conclusion on Economics ............................................................................................................. 34 Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energy Development ....................................................................... 34 An Economic Comparison ............................................................................................................ 35 Rapid and Widespread Deployment ............................................................................................. 37 Are Nuclear and Renewables Compatible? .................................................................................. 40 Post-3/11 Developments in Selected Countries (as of April 2011) ................................................. 41 Asia ............................................................................................................................................... 41 Middle East ................................................................................................................................... 44 Europe ........................................................................................................................................... 44 Non-EU Europe ............................................................................................................................. 47 The Americas ................................................................................................................................ 47 Annex 1. Overview by Region and Country ..................................................................................... 50 Annex 2. Status of Nuclear Power in the World (1 April 2011) ...................................................... 72 Annex 3. Nuclear Reactors in the World Listed as “Under Construction” (1 April 2011) .......... 73 Endnotes…………………………………………………………………………………...……………...…....75 Figures and Tables Figure 1. Nuclear Power Reactor Grid Connections and Shutdowns, 1956–2011 ............................................... 12 Figure 2. World Nuclear Reactor Fleet, 1954–2011 ............................................................................................. 12 Figure 3. Nuclear Power Generation by Country, 2009 ....................................................................................... 13 Figure 4. Number of Nuclear Reactors under Construction ................................................................................. 14 Figure 5. Age Distribution of Operating Nuclear Reactors, 2011 ........................................................................ 16 Figure 6. Age Distribution of Shutdown Nuclear Reactors, 2011 ........................................................................ 16 Figure 7. The 40-Year Lifetime Projection .......................................................................................................... 17 Figure 8. The PLEX Projection ...........................................................................................................................
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