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IMA Final Report Final Report of the International MOX Assessment COMPREHENSIVE SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF MOX USE IN LIGHT WATER REACTORS J. Takagi, M. Schneider, F. Barnaby, I. Hokimoto, K. Hosokawa, C. Kamisawa, B. Nishio, A. Rossnagel, M. Sailer November, 1997 IMA Project Citizens' Nuclear Information Center COMPREHENSIVE SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF MOX USE IN LIGHT WATER REACTORS Copyright: © 1997 IMA Project/Citizens' Nuclear Information Center Published by Citizens' Nuclear Information Center, November 1997. Kotobuki Bldg. , 3F, 1-58-15, Higashi-nakano, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164, Japan PHONE: 81-3-5330-9520 FAX: 81-3-5330-9530 e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] URL: http://www.jca.ax.apc.org/cnic/ Final Report of the International MOX Assessment COMPREHENSIVE SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF MOX USE IN LIGHT WATER REACTORS Structure of the IMA Project November 1. 1995 - October 31. 1997 Title:Comprehensive Social Impact Assessment of MOX (uranium-plutonium mixed oxide) Use in Light Water Reactors For short: IMA (International MOX Assessment) Project Director: Jinzaburo Takagi (Citizens' Nuclear Information Center) Project Assistant Director: Mycle Schneider (WISE-Paris) Co-researchers (Authors of Chapters, in alphabetical order) Frank Barnaby: Independent science consultant, responsible for Chapter 2 Ichiro Hokimoto: Kokugakuin University, responsible for Chapter 6-1 Komei Hosokawa: Saga University, responsible for Chapter 7(j) Chihiro Kamisawa: Citizens' Nuclear Information Center, responsible for Chapter 3(j) Baku Nishio: Citizens' Nuclear Information Center, responsible for Chapter 4 Alexander Rossnagel: University of Kassel, responsible for Chapter 6-2 Michael Sailer: Oeko-Institut, responsible for Chapter 5(j) Mycle Schneider: WISE-Paris, responsible for Summary Report(j) and Annex-1 (j) Jinzaburo Takagi: Citizens' Nuclear Information Center, responsible for Summary Report (j), and Chapters 1, 3(j), 5(j) and 7(j) (j) means that two authors are jointly responsible for the chapter. Contributors of Annex Papers: Mathieu Pavageau (Wise-Paris, France): Annex-1(j) Richard Donderer (Kollert and Donderer, Germany): Annex 2-a Edwin Lyman (Nuclear Control Institute, USA): Annex 2-b Alexander Dmitriev (Gosatomnadzdor, Russia): Annex 2-c Paul Leventhal and Steven Dolley (Nuclear Control Institute, USA): Annex 2-d Advisors: Bas Bruyne, Shaun Burnie, Tom Clements, Martin Kalinowski, Christian Kueppers, Wolfgang Liebert, David Lowry (also proof reading), Damon Moglen, Lydia Popova Reviewers: Ross Hesketh (Independent, U.K.), Bernard Laponche (International Consulting on Energy) Yukio Yamaguchi (Hosei University) Secretariat: Citizens' Nuclear Information Center (H. Ban, M. Watanabe, N. Yanakita) Funders of IMA Project: Toyota Foundation, W. Alton Jones Foundation, John Merck Fund, Ploughshares Fund i Acknowledgement This project was only made possible by the generous financial support of Toyota Foundation as well as W. Alton Jones Foundation, Ploughshares Fund and John Merck Fund who also later joined the funding. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to these foundations. Thanks are also due to Takagi Psychiatric Clinic for Funding. Many people helped us conduct the project and prepare this report. Our thanks go to all contributors, advisors and reviewers, whose names are found in the Structure of the IMA Project. We iterate the names of Ross Hesketh, Bernard Laponche, Yukio Yamaguchi and David Lowry to express our special gratitude to their very careful review and proof-reading. Thanks go to WISE-Paris, Oeko-Institut(Darmstat-Buero), Greenpeace International, Committee to Endorse IMA Kyoto Conference, Masafumi Takubo, Aileen Mioko Smith. Lastly but not the least, thanks are due to almost innumerable number of individuals and groups, whose names are not given here but who supported and encouraged us. IMA Project Jinzaburo Takagi, Mycle Schneider, Frank Barnaby, Ichiro Hokimoto, Komei Hosokawa, Chihiro Kamisawa, Baku Nishio, Alexander Rossnagel Michael Sailer ii Table of Contents Structure of the IMA Project …………………………………………………………………………………… i Acknowledgement ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… ii List of Tables ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… x List of Figures ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… xii Acronyms …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… xiii FOREWORD ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 1 Summary Report ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 Chapter 1 Introduction into General, Environmental and Health Aspects (Jinzaburo Takagi) ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 59 1.1 What Is MOX …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 59 1.1.1 Plutonium, a man-made element ……………………………………………………………… 59 1.1.2 Weapon-grade and reactor-grade plutonium …………………………………………… 60 1.1.3 Military-civil dual use character of plutonium ………………………………………… 62 1.1.4 Toxicity of plutonium ………………………………………………………………………………… 63 1.1.5 MOX fuel ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 65 1.2 Japan's Plutonium Program …………………………………………………………………………… 66 1.2.1 Civil plutonium program and nuclear fuel cycle policy …………………………… 66 1.2.2 Japan's plutonium strategy ………………………………………………………………………… 67 1.2.3 Implications of Monju and Tokai Accidents ……………………………………………… 69 1.3 MOX Use in Light Water Reactors--Scope and Issues ……………………………………… 71 1.3.1 MOX fuel cycle and issues to be addressed ………………………………………………… 71 Security Safety Economy Back-end policy Societal, legal and political implications Transportation of radioactive materials 1.4 Implications of MOX Use in a Changing World ……………………………………………… 76 1.4.1 Plutonium in the post Cold War era and the plutonium surplus …………… 76 iii 1.4.2 Basic position of IMA project ……………………………………………………………………… 78 1.4.3 Implications of plutonium policy in a changing world …………………………… 81 Chapter 2 The Security Aspects of the Use of MOX as Nuclear Fuel (Frank Barnaby) …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 85 2.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 85 2.2 The Attraction of Mox for Those Wishing to Fabricate Nuclear Weapons ……… 87 2.2.1 The use of reactor-grade plutonium in nuclear weapons ………………………… 87 2.2.2 Critical mass ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 87 2.2.3 Design of nuclear weapons ………………………………………………………………………… 89 2.2.4 Nuclear terrorism ……………………………………………………………………………………… 91 2.2.5 Terrorist use of plutonium ………………………………………………………………………… 91 2.2.6 Could a terrorist group make a nuclear explosive? …………………………………… 94 2.2.7 Effects of the explosion of a primitive nuclear explosion ………………………… 95 A 100-ton nuclear explosion A 1000-ton nuclear explosion 2.3 The Effectiveness of International Safeguards in Plutonium Bulk-Handling Facilities …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 97 2.3.1 Material balance areas ………………………………………………………………………………… 98 2.3.2 Material unaccounted for …………………………………………………………………………… 99 2.3.3 Near-real time accountancy ………………………………………………………………… 102 2.3.4 Physical protection of facilities handling MOX ……………………………………… 103 2.3.5 Physical protection of plutonium, including MOX, in transit ………………… 105 2.3.6 Hold-up of plutonium in MOX fuel-fabrication plants …………………………… 107 2.4 The Consequences of the Use of MOX for the Negotiation of a Ban on the Production of Fissile Materials for Use in Nuclear Weapons ……………………… 108 2.4.1 Fissile cut-off ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 108 2.4.2 The scope of a fissile material cut-off treaty ……………………………………………… 109 2.4.3 Current stocks of weapon-usable fissile materials …………………………………… 110 Plutonium Highly-enriched uranium 2.4.4 Need to include civil plutonium in a convention banning the production of fissile material ……………………………………………………………………………………… 111 2.4.5 The disposal of weapon-grade plutonium as MOX ………………………………… 112 2.4.6 Laser isotope separation …………………………………………………………………………… 115 2.4.7 The regional security consequences of the use of MOX fuel …………………… 117 iv Chapter 3 Safety Aspects of MOX Use in LWRs (Jinzaburo Takagi and Chihiro Kamisawa) ……………………………………………………………… 121 3.1 Safety-Related Properties of MOX as Compared to UO2 ………………………………… 122 3.1.1 Fabrication of MOX and physical-chemical properties ……………………………… 122 3.1.2 Nuclear characteristics of MOX fuel ………………………………………………………… 123 3.1.3 Radiological properties ……………………………………………………………………………… 125 3.2 Reactor Safety Aspects of MOX Use in LWRs ………………………………………… 127 3.2.1 Summary of key factors affecting reactor safety ………………………………………… 127 3.2.2 BWR specific problems and credible accident scenarios …………………………… 130 Feedwater transient Recirculation flow transient Main steam-related transient 3.2.3 PWR specific problems and credible accident scenarios …………………………… 131 3.2.4 Other transient and accident cases……………………………………………………………… 132 3.3 Assessment of Severe Accident Consequences of MOX-Fueled Reactor ……… 132 3.3.1 Accident assumptions ………………………………………………………………………………… 133 Fuel and reactor data Accident scenarios and radioactive releases Release of actinides Evaluation of internal exposure dose due to plutonium inhalation Results of dose calculations Implications of dose evaluations 3.4 Safety Aspects of MOX Fabrication Plant ………………………………………………………… 139 3.4.1 MOX fabrication processes and workers' exposure …………………………………… 139 3.4.2 Plutonium release accident in MOX fabrication plant……………………………… 141 Accident possibilities Consequences of plutonium release 3.4.3 Plutonium waste from MOX fabrication plant ………………………………………… 143 3.5 Risks of Reprocessing ……………………………………………………………………………………… 145 3.5.1 Safety aspects of reprocessing plants ………………………………………………………… 145 Accident hazards
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