Socio-Political Impact of Development Cooperation Measures in Tanzania: Analysing Impacts on Local Tensions and Conflicts
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GERMAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE GDI Socio-political Impact of Development Cooperation Measures in Tanzania: Analysing Impacts on Local Tensions and Conflicts Stephan Klingebiel Bettina Eberle Susanne Kühn Jochen Möller Stefan Nöthen Katja Roehder Axel Ulmer Preface This study sets out to analyse the socio-political impact of German develop- ment cooperation at project level in Tanzania, presenting an approach to ana- lysing impacts on local tensions and conflicts. It was conducted by a re- search team during the 1999/2000 training course run by the German Devel- opment Institute (GDI). All the members of the team would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who helped them to prepare and carry out the study. In Germany we were encouraged by the considerable interest shown in our study and by the support provided and ideas put to us by experts at the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the German Foreign Office, the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ), the German Bank for Reconstruction and Development (KfW) and the GDI. We were grateful for the comments and suggestions we received from experts and re- searchers in the areas of development cooperation, Tanzania, socio-political tensions, conflicts and impact analysis. It was particularly useful to share ideas and learn from our counterpart at the Institute of Development Studies (University of Dar es Salaam), Professor Ibrahim Shao, during his visit to Berlin in December 1999. During our stay in Tanzania (February to April 2000) we were accorded a warm welcome, considerable interest in our study and great patience from village to ministerial level. We learned from our discussions with officials and experts at the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education and Cul- ture, international donor agencies, political foundations and other institu- tions. We would like to thank all the participants in our workshops at the projects and in Dar es Salaam. We also attach great importance to our dis- cussions with experts at the IDS, the GTZ and the German Embassy. We were given a very friendly reception by the staff of our host projects, the Handeni Integrated Agroforestry Project (HIAP) and the Kagera Environ- mental Project (KEP). We wish to thank the project managers and staff for all the help they so willingly provided. We were able to carry out the study in a constructive atmosphere thanks to the kind cooperation of the villagers in the project areas, the regional and district administrations concerned, the committed and open-minded project management and staff and our compe- tent translators. Asante sana! Dar es Salaam/Berlin, August 2000 Table of Contents List of Abbreviations Summary I I Introduction 1 II State of the Art: Development Cooperation in Situations of Tensions and Conflicts 3 1 Conflict Prevention and Peace-building in Development Cooperation 3 2 Conflicts of Interest: a Four-Stage Model 4 3 Factors Causing and Aggravating Socio-political Tensions and Conflicts 6 4 Areas of Activity for Development Cooperation 8 5 Evaluations of Donor Agencies' Experience in Tension and Conflict Situations 11 III Tension and Conflict Impact Analysis 15 1 General Background to Impact Analysis 15 1.1 Definition and Characteristics of Impact Analysis 15 1.2 Different Categories of Tension and Conflict Impact 18 1.3 Existing Frameworks of Tension and Conflict Impact Analysis 20 2 The Research Approach: Tension and Conflict Impact Analysis (TCIA) 22 2.1 Description of the Project Region and the Project 23 2.2 Tension and Conflict Analysis 24 2.3 Tension-related Identification of Project Stakeholders 25 2.4 Sensitivity of the Project to Tensions and Conflict 26 2.5 Impact Identification 27 2.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 27 3 The Research Approach: Methodological Instruments 27 3.1 Data Collection 27 3.2 Data Analysis: the TCIA Matrix 29 IV Analysis of Socio-political Impact of German Development Cooperation: Case Study Tanzania 31 1 National Background 33 1.1 Potential for Socio-political Tensions in Tanzania 33 1.2 Profile of German Development Cooperation with Tanzania 36 1.3 Overview: Possible Impact of German Development Cooperation on Macro-level Tensions 38 2 Handeni Integrated Agroforestry Project (HIAP) 40 2.1 Description of the Project Region and the Project 40 2.2 Tension and Conflict Analysis 45 2.3 Tension-related Identification of Project Stakeholders 50 2.4 The HIAP's Sensitivity to Tensions 53 2.5 Identification of Impacts 55 2.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 59 3 The Kagera Environmental Project (KEP) 61 3.1 Description of the Project Region and the Project 62 3.2 Tension and Conflict Analysis 68 3.3 Tension-related Identification of Project Stakeholders 83 3.4 Sensitivity of the KEP to Tensions 83 3.5 Identification of Impacts 85 3.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 86 V Findings and Recommendations 88 1 Findings: Socio-political Impact of Development Cooperation Projects 89 2 Findings: Tension and Conflict Impact Analysis (TCIA) 90 3 General Recommendations 91 Annex Annex A Data Sheet Tanzania 97 Annex B Information Related to the Research Approach 98 Annex C Information on Empirical Research 101 Annex D List of Interviewees and Resource Persons 117 References and further readings 120 List of Boxes, Figures, Tables and Maps in the Text List of Boxes Box 1: MAPP – Method for Impact Assessment of Poverty Alleviation Projects 17 Box 2: Three tension and conflict analysis frameworks compared 21 Box 3: Results of a field visit to Mkindi and Lengusero (March 2000) 51 Box 4: Trend line in the village of Ruganzo 70 List of Figures Figure 1: Conflicts of interest: a four-stage model 5 Figure 2: Example of trend line: peaceful relations in village X 29 Figure 3: Bilateral and multilateral donors, disbursements in 1996 as percentages of the total 37 Figure 4: Trend line Mkindi / Lengusero Villages 53 Figure 5: Total number of refugees in Kagera Region (1993 - January 2000) 65 Figure 6: Trend line in the village of Ruganzo 70 List of Maps Map 1: Tanzania: Regional boundaries 32 Map 2: Handeni District and the HIAP project area 41 Map 3: The Great Lakes Region and the KEP project area 64 List of Tables Table 1: Tensions and conflicts: areas of activity for development cooperation 10 Table 2: Tension- and conflict-oriented concepts of German and other donor agencies 15 Table 3: Hypothetical example of the output, outcome and impact of an education project 16 Table 4: Intended and unintended impacts 19 Table 5: Possible positive and negative impacts of development cooperation 19 Table 6: Impact table of project activities (example) 29 Table 7: TCIA matrix – basic sheet 31 Table 8: The HIAP's output (February 2000) 44 Table 9: Main actors in the HIAP project area: land use groups, ethnic and religious composition 48 Table 10: Tension-related stakeholders of the HIAP 51 Table 11: The HIAP's TCIA matrix 57 Table 12: Schedule of the field visit to Kagera Region 62 Table 13: Criteria for the selection of villages in Kagera Region 63 Table 14: Donor agencies and their resource-related activities in Kagera Region (from 1994) 67 Table 15: The KEP's TCIA matrix 72 Table 16: Factors of potential sources of tension between refugees and the local population 77 Table 17: Factors of potential sources of tension between Hutus and Tutsis 79 Table 18: Factors of potential sources of tension between Bugufi/Hangaza and Bushubi/Shubi 81 Table 19: Actors involved in potential tensions in Ngara and Karagwe 82 Table 20: Tension-related stakeholders of the KEP 84 Table 21: Possible entry points for the incorporation of the tension and conflict dimension in the project cycle in German development cooperation 92 List of Figures and Tables in the Annex Figure A 1: Trend line for the village of Kilindi 107 Figure A 2: Trend line in the village of Kibirashi 108 Figure A 3: Trend line for the village of Kazulo 114 Figure A 4: Trend Line for the village of Goya Goya 115 Figure A 5: Trend line for Kibondo Ward 116 Table A 1: Dimensions and possible indicators for cooperation and tension 98 Table A 2: Overview of the schedule of field research in Tanzania 101 Table A 3: Impact table – village of Kilindi 108 Table A 4: Impact table – village of Kibirashi (pastoralists) 109 Table A 5: Impact table – village of Kibirashi (farmers) 110 List of Abbreviations ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific (countries associated with the EU under the Lomé Con- vention) ADF African Development Fund AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome BMZ Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (Federal Mi- nistry for Economic Cooperation and Development) CCM Chama Cha Mapinduzi (Party of the Revolution) CIAS Conflict Impact Assessment CIM Centrum für Internationale Migration und Entwicklung (Center for International Migra- tion and Development) CUF Civic United Front CUG Catchment User Group, Community User Group CWG Country Working Group DAC Development Assistance Committee DAS District Administrative Secretary DC District Commissioner DEA Development-oriented Emergency Aid DED Deutscher Entwicklungsdienst (German Development Service), District Executive Direc- tor DEG Deutsche Investitions- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft mbH (German Finance Company for Investment in Developing Countries) DFID Department for International Development (United Kingdom) DIAP Diocesan Integrated Agroforestry Project, Kwediboma DM Deutsche Mark (German Mark) DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DRDP District Rural Development Programme DSE Deutsche Stiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (German