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Chinese-Middle East Relations and Their Implications for U.S. Policy

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CHOOL friclassified URITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 0MB No 0704-0188 REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION lb RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY OF REPORT Approved for public release; distribution DECLASSIFICATION / DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE is unlimited. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5 MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUIVIBER(S) NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b OFFICE SYMBOL 7a NAME OF MONITORING ORGANiZATON Naval Postgraduate {tf applicable) Naval Postgraduate School NS School ADDRESS [City, State, and ZIP Code) 7b ADDRESS (Ofy. State and ZIP Code) Monterey, CA 93943-5000 Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NAME OF FUNDING /SPONSORING 8b OFFICE SYMBOL 9 PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION (If applicable) ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 10 SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT TASK vVORK UNIT ELEMENT NO NO NO ACCESSION NO TITLE (Include Security Classification) CHINESE-MIDDLE EAST RELATIONS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) George Foster SCHIECK a TYPE OF REPORT 3b TIME COVERED 4 DATE OF REPORT {Year, Monthi. Day) 5 PAGE COUNT Master's Thesis FROM TO June 1992 351 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. finvprnmpnt COSATI CODES SUBJECT TERMS {Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP China, Middle East, Israel, Chinese-Middle East Inter- action, Foreign Policy Determinants, U.S. Policy Impli ABSTRACT {Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number^ China and the Middle East nave engaged in various interactions throughout the post-war period. This thesis looks at those interactions and postulates a purposeful intent underlying Chinese-Middle Eastern activity. Purposeful intent is deduced from a con- sideration of extant and subsequently probable Chinese and Middle Eastern foreign policies. Vehicles for examining these foreign policies include: aspects of applicabl domestic fabrics; those fabrics' perceptions of international requirements; external realities of the countries involved; the regional interaction itself. Economic, cul- tural, security and diplomatic issues are included. Likely goals and objectives of China and the Middle East through continued interaction are discussed. Israel and the other Levantine states comprise the two primary foci used to identify the Middle East region. China is discussed first from the period beginning with 1949 through to the ) DISTRIBUTION /AVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21 ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION [3 UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED D SAME AS RPT n DTIC USERS Unclassified a, NAME OF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b,b, TELEPHONEi/nc/ude Area/ Code) 22c OFFICE SYMBOL Claude A. Buss (408) 646-2228 NS/MK ) Form 1473, JUN 86 Previous editions are obsolete SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE S/N 0102-LF-014-6603 Unclassified T258649 Unclassified SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Block 18: (cont) cations; Economic, Security and Diplomatic Areas; Ideology; Superpower; U.N.; Four Modernizations; Deng Xiaoping Block 19: (cont) ascendancy of Deng Xiaoping, then from the Four Modernizations and reform through to the present. Implications for U.S. policy regarding both China and the Middle East conclude the study. class ification OF THIS pagi DD Form 1473. JUN 86 (Reverse) security Unclassified n Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Chinese -Middle East Relations and their Implications for U.S. Policy by George Foster Schieck Lieutenant, United 'States Navy B.A., West Virginia Wesleyan College, 1973 M.A., Boston University, 1978 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 1992 xii t.l ABSTRACT China and the Middle East have engaged in various interac- tions throughout the post-war period. This thesis looks at those interactions and postulates a purposeful intent underly- ing Chinese-Middle Eastern activity. Purposeful intent is deduced from a consideration of extant and subsequently probable Chinese and Middle Eastern foreign policies. Vehi- cles for examining these foreign policies include: aspects of applicable domestic fabrics; those fabrics' perceptions of international requirements; external realities of the coun- tries involved; the regional interaction itself. Economic, cultural, security and diplomatic issues are included. Likely goals and objectives of China and the Middle East through continued interaction are discussed. Israel and the other Levantine states comprise the two primary foci used to identify the Middle East region. China is discussed first from the period beginning with 1949 through to the ascendancy of Deng Xiaoping, then from the Four Modernizations and reform through to the present. Implications for U.S. policy regard- ing both China and the Middle East conclude the study. " TABLE OF CONTENTS ' I INTRODUCTION 1 II. CHINA (PRO AND THE MIDDLE EAST 11 A. GENERAL HISTORY OF INTERACTION 18 B. CHRONOLOGY SINCE 1949 27 III. DETERMINANTS OF PRO AND MIDDLE EAST FOREIGN POLICIES SINCE 1949 84 A. PRC 86 1 , Before Deng Xiaoping 91 2 . Four Modernizations and Reform 12 B. MIDDLE EAST 154 1 . Israel 165 2 . Other Middle East States 183 IV. CHINESE ACTIVITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST 2 02 A ECONOMIC 206 B. SECURITY 2 08 C. DIPLOMATIC 210 V. MIDDLE EAST ACTIVITIES IN CHINA 214 A. ISRAEL 214 B. OTHER MIDDLE EAST STATES 215 VI . POLICY SUMMARIES 217 A. DOES CHINA HAVE OR EXERCISE A "MIDDLE EAST POLICY" ? 219 1 . Economic 222 2 . Security 225 s a. Technology and Lessons Learned (Israel) 228 b. Offsetting Other Non-Middle Eastern Powers. 229 3. Diplomatic 238 a. Taiwan 239 b. Reduce Great Power Influence 240 B. DOES ISRAEL HAVE OR EXERCISE A "CHINA POLICY? " 241 1 . Economic 242 a . New Markets 243 b. Diversification 244 2 . Security 245 a. Possible R&D Assistance 246 b. Diversification 247 3 . Diplomatic 249 a. Recognition 249 b. Dilute U.S. Influence 250 C. DO OTHER MIDDLE EAST STATES HAVE OR EXERCISE A "CHINA POLICY" ? 250 1 . Economic 2 51 a . New Market 251 b. Location for Investment 252 2 . Security 253 a. "General Store" 254 b. Diversification 255 3 . Diplomatic 255 . VII. IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY. 2 57 A U.S. AND THE PRC 266 1. Ideology and the "Death of Communism" 268 2 . Superpowers? 277 a. Kennedy, Nye, Toffler, et.ai 284 3 . The UN and Regional Issues 290 B. U.S. AND THE MIDDLE EAST 2 93 1. Israel 295 a. Arab-Israeli Dilemma 298 b. Israeli U.S. Lobby 299 2 . Other Middle East States 300 a. Infrastructure and Resources 301 b. Islam 302 c. An Honest Broker 304 3 . The UN and Regional Issues 305 APPENDIX - SIGNIFICANT CALENDAR YEAR DATES FOR CHINA AND THE MIDDLE EAST 310 FOOTNOTES 313 BIBLIOGRAPHY 322 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 339 ACKNOWLEDGMENT I must include, by way of initial remarks, several rounds of thanks. First to the U.S. Navy for making possible thirty marvelous months of experiences in Monterey (including initial exposure to Hebrew and Mandarin) . Then to my advisors for allowing simultaneous work in both the Middle East and Far East area studies programs. Finally and most importantly, for the privilege of studying under Professor Buss who - among other things - is a scholar and splendid humanitarian. , I . INTRODUCTION The nascent subject of Chinese-Middle East relations has been little acknowledged and even less understood, yet is not of inconsiderable importance. Both China and the Middle East figure prominently in their own respective strategic, economic and political spheres; the manner in which these two regions or spheres choose to interact - or not to interact - may well have larger import than our traditional regional analyses of these areas would indicate. As nations world-wide currently reexamine their roles within the rapidly evolving geopolitical arena of the 1990s and beyond, analyses pertaining to regional interaction deserve timely attention. The many readily apparent economic, political and/or social evolutions now occurring throughout Eurasia, the Middle East, and the Pacific (plus evolutions that are perhaps not so readily apparent) lend the question of Chinese-Middle Eastern relations fresh and, as it will be shown, uniquely pertinent import. Immediate and long term implications of recent events throughout the Middle and Far East highlight the importance we ascribe to occurrences within these regions. The interaction of these occurrences, both directly and indirectly, generates and reflects considerable impact on the rest of the world. Our understanding (or perception) of the implications of these events as well as, secondarily, the events themselves combine to govern our formulation and prescription of policy. Some of the more recent and prominent of these events, a few of which are quite remarkable, include Khomeini's reign and legacy, Chinese student-led appeals for democracy and the Tienanmen massacre, Iraqi hostilities with Iran and Kuwait, continued Arab-Israeli dilemmas (illustrated as well as exacerbated by the Intifada) , and recent Middle East peace initiatives. This thesis concerns itself with the circumstances and implications of these and other events, viewed both regionally and inter- regionally, then entertains conclusions regarding Chinese and Middle Eastern interaction along with suggestions for the focus and direction of related U.S. policy. Inherent to the introduction within this first chapter are two major premises. First, that there indeed is, has been and will continue to be, a definite level of measurable and purposeful activity between China and the Middle East. Secondly, that despite the complex, fluid and seemingly disparate qualities associated with so many variables resident within each of the two regions, there yet remains a viable basis for considering the question of current and subsequent interaction (s) between China and the Middle East. Chapter II reviews the historical sweep of relations between China and the Middle East and concludes with an extensive chronology of Chinese-Middle Eastern events and interaction, plus other significant occurrences, since 1949.
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