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GOAL Global Opportunity Asset Locator Outlook for 2021 Rotation 20 November 2020 | 5:46PM GMT GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Outlook for 2021: Rotation inoculation — remain pro-risk Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- [email protected] Goldman Sachs International Alessio Rizzi n We are pro-risk for 2021 and expect the pro-cyclical rotation across and within +44(20)7552-3976 | [email protected] assets to continue, supported by a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 Goldman Sachs International Cecilia Mariotti shock. With a favourable growth/inflation mix and still elevated equity risk premia +44(20)7552-0450 | [email protected] we are OW equities and UW bonds. With tighter credit spreads we are N credit Goldman Sachs International but still see opportunities to move down in quality. Over a 12m horizon we are Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | OW commodities (N for 3m), supported in particular by a bullish oil view. [email protected] Goldman Sachs International n While absolute equity valuations are high after the sharp recovery, they remain Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | attractive vs. bonds. And equities should be able to digest a gradual increase in [email protected] bond yields better than fixed income as long as they come alongside better Goldman Sachs International David J. Kostin growth. We expect more rotation within equities – the leadership in regions, +1(212)902-6781 | [email protected] sectors and styles has been unusually defensive in the recovery. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kathy Matsui n Our Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has turned positive, which alone is not a +81(3)6437-9950 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. bearish signal. In the past when the RAI shifted positive the macro backdrop was Timothy Moe, CFA similarly strong. We expect growth to take over from the search for yield as the +852-2978-1328 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. main driver. Renewed COVID-19 concerns might weigh on sentiment in the near Jeffrey Currie term but we think growth pricing across assets remains relatively conservative. +44(20)7552-7410 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International For the exclusive use of [email protected] n Four multi-asset themes for 2020: (1) Managing duration frustration – higher Lotfi Karoui equity duration risk, (2) Time to give credit to equity, (3) Commodity commotion +1(917)343-1548 | lotfi[email protected] Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and oil price recovery and (4) Diversification desperation continues. Zach Pandl +1(212)902-5699 | [email protected] n We highlight four risks for 2020: (1) Second-wave risks and inoculation Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC disappointments, (2) Concentration, regulation, taxation, (3) Inflation and rates Kamakshya Trivedi +44(20)7051-4005 | volatility and (4) Policy uncertainty. [email protected] Goldman Sachs International n Positioning was at bearish or neutral levels for most of 2020, but recently there Praveen Korapaty has a been a bullish shift in investor sentiment. Still, we think positioning can +1(212)357-0413 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC pick up further in 2021 given our constructive view on next year. 7f100ca895df11e0bb4300215ace2648 Caesar Maasry n Volatility across assets reset sharply lower last month, with implied levels for a +1(212)902-8763 | [email protected] lot of markets nearing or at all-time lows – we look at selective hedges. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC This report is intended for distribution to GS institutional clients only Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Goldman Sachs GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Table of Contents Asset allocation: Remain pro-risk — focus on cyclical exposure 3 Multi-asset: Rotation inoculation 6 Risks: Inoculation, Concentration, Inflation, Politics 16 Multi-asset positioning: More bullish sentiment but little rotation so far 19 Multi-asset volatility: Lower but no low-vol regime — hedge opportunities 21 Equities (3m & 12m Overweight): The bull run in 2021 25 Government Bonds (3m & 12m UW): Robust recovery, shallow selloff 31 Credit (3m &12m Neutral): Same direction, different magnitude 36 Commodities (3m N and 12m OW): REVing up a structural bull market 40 FX: Dollar downtrend 45 Calendar: Key events in 2021 51 Asset class forecast returns and performance 52 Key macro forecasts 53 Disclosure Appendix 54 For the exclusive use of [email protected] 7f100ca895df11e0bb4300215ace2648 20 November 2020 2 Goldman Sachs GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Asset allocation: Remain pro-risk — focus on cyclical exposure We are pro-risk for 2021 and expect the pro-cyclical rotation across and within assets to continue, supported by a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 shock. With a favourable growth/inflation mix and still elevated equity risk premia we are OW equities and UW bonds. With tighter credit spreads we are N credit but still see opportunities to move down in quality. Over a 12m horizon we are OW commodities (N for 3m), supported in particular by a bullish oil view. Our tactical trade ideas across assets have a pro-cyclical flavour, supported by our strong, above-consensus global growth outlook and expectations for easy monetary policy. The rotation might be bumpy with renewed COVID-19 waves and as US fiscal stimulus is likely pushed to next year. We would use any volatility to re-risk as markets are likely to focus increasingly on the recovery next year – we also look for overlay hedges post the reset in cross-asset volatility. Exhibit 1: We are pro-risk in our asset allocation for 2021 3-Month Horizon 12-Month Horizon Asset Class Weight** Asset Class Weight** Equities OW Equities OW MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan ↑ 1 S&P 500 → STOXX Europe 600 ↑ 2 MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan → TOPIX ↑ 4 TOPIX → S&P 500 → 3 STOXX Europe 600 → Cash N Commodities OW Credit N Credit N EMBI ↑ 1 EMBI ↑ USD HY ↑ 2 EUR HY → EUR HY ↑ 3 USD HY → EUR IG → 4 EUR IG → USD IG ↓ 5 USD IG → Commodities N 6 Cash N 10 yr. Gov. Bonds UW 10 yr. Gov. Bonds UW US ↑ 2 Germany → Japan → 1 Japan → Germany → 3 US ↓ For the exclusive use of [email protected] ** Arrows denote preferences within asset classes. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research We are OW equities (3m and 12m) and expect strong returns across regions. Valuation expansion drove the equity recovery from the COVID-19 shock, consistent with the ‘Hope’ phase – in 2021 earnings should take over as the main driver as markets transition to the ‘growth’ phase. We forecast strong earnings growth across regions, mostly above consensus. With elevated equity risk premia and a gradual increase in rates we see absolute valuations, while high, as well-supported. We do not have strong regional preferences for 12m – forecast returns in Dollar are similar. For 3m we are OW 7f100ca895df11e0bb4300215ace2648 non-US markets as they should benefit more from a cyclical recovery. We generally prefer cyclical and value and have reduced defensive/growth exposures. Marquee is a product of Key Ideas: US: High growth investment (GSTHHGIR); Europe: Fiscal Infrastructure the Goldman Sachs Global (GSSTFISC), Recovery (GSSTRCOV), Renewables (GSSBRNEW); Asia ex Japan: Digital Markets Division Dozen (GSSZDG12), Global cyclicals vs. defensives (GSSZMSGC vs. GSSZMSDF), Japan: Capex (GSJPCPEX), Cyclicals (GSJPCYCL), Womenomics (GSJPWJDL); EM: LatAm, long banks vs. consumer staples, Long Korea vs. Taiwan. 20 November 2020 3 Goldman Sachs GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator We are UW bonds (3m and 12m) but see modest downside due to muted inflation pressures and central banks on hold. We forecast modestly higher yields across most of the G10 – YE2021 10yr forecasts: US 1.3%, Germany -0.4%, Japan 0.10% and UK 0.5%. Bond risk premia should drive much of the repricing – we expect yield curves to steepen. The US real yield curve could steepen significantly with large declines in front-end real yields, especially if our bullish oil view materialises. With low global bond yields we think bonds are unlikely to be good hedges for equities; however, pronounced sell-offs could present tactical opportunities to add duration as a hedge as we think yields will remain range-bound until there is a sustainable pick-up in realised inflation. Key Ideas: Long 3y1y forward US real yields, Long (1.65:1) 1y forward 5s30s steepeners, Long 2s30s Gilt curve steepeners, Long 10y10y-2y2y HICP curve flatteners. We are N credit (3m and 12m) due to limited total return potential. Credit spreads should continue to inch to their pre-COVID-19 levels. While near-term growth may prove bumpy, a better outlook for next year following recent positive vaccine developments, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, direct central bank interventions and a supportive supply/demand technical backdrop should support credit risk appetite. Valuations limit long-term upside relative to the stellar performance since late March, but credit will likely deliver decent excess returns and solid Sharpe ratios. We generally favour a down-in-quality stance and pro-cyclical and “disrupted” sectors. Key Ideas: Long High Yield vs. Investment Grade in the USD cash market (1 to 1.15 notional), Long USD Investment Grade bonds vs. agency MBS, Long EUR AT1 vs. High Yield bonds, Long US AAA CLOs vs. AAA CMBX index, Long EM HY credit. We are N commodities for 3m and shift OW for 12m as we see a new structural bull market emerging in 2021. As demand recoveries meet restrained supply due structural under-investment, we see upside in most commodities. Non-energy commodities face immediate upside supported by Chinese demand and adverse weather shocks.
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