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AUTHOR Brown, Lester R.; And Others TITLE Stai-p of +110 WorlA 1990. A WorlAwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society. INSTITUTION Worldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C. REPORT NO ISBN-0-393-30614-3 PUB DATE 90 NOTE 268p. AVAILABLE FROMW. W. Norton and Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10110 ($9.95; hardcoverISBN-0-393-20788-0). PUB TYPE Books (010) -- Reports - Research/Technical (143)

EDRS PRICE MF01/PC11 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Air Pollution; *Conservation (Environment); Energy Conservation; *Environmental Education; *Global Approach; Higher Education; *International Cooperation; *Natural Resources; Postsecondary EducaLion; Productivity; Water IDENTIFIERS *Global Climate Change

ABSTRACT As the world enters the last decade of the 20th century, tLe environmental problems facing human societies have been given increased emphasis in world policy debates. The goal of the Worldwatch Institute is to help raise the level of public understanding of global environmental threats to the point where the public will support policies needed to reverse these trends. This document focuses on major policy initiatives needed to stabilize the global environment for human civilization. In this seventh annual issue of the description of the status of global environmental problems, 10 issues are presented and discussed. These issues include:(1) progress and productivity; (2) global climate change; (3) global water supplies;(4) global food supplies;(5) sea level changes;(6) air quality;(7) global bicycle use;(8) poverty; (9) the proliferation of peace; and (10) efforts to sustain world resources. (CW)

*********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. **************It******.***************************************A********* 00 Cri3

-c4 Lester R. Brown and Alan Durning Christopher Flavin Hilary French Jodi Jacobson Marcia Lowe Sandra Postel U S DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Orke ot Educational Rosearch and Improvement "PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THIS Michael Renner EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION TERIAL HAf.BEEN G NTED BY CENTER (ERIC) document has been reproduced as received from the person or organization ArokOcy (ls Linda Starke originating P Minor changes have been made to improve reproduction quality

a Points of view, opinions stated in thisdocu- rr)John Young Men( do not necessarily reOreSent official TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES OER1Positon or policy INFORMA lION CENTER (ERIC)." AWoridwatch InstituteReporton Progress TowardaSustainable Society -REST COPY AVAILABLE 2 STATE OF THE WORLD 1990 Other Norton/Worldwatch Books

Lester R. Brown et al. State of the World 1984 State of the World 1985 State of the World 1986 State of the World 1987 State of the World 1988 State of the World 1989

4 STATE OF THE WORLD 1990 AWorldwatch InstituteRetorton Progress TowardaSustainable Society

PROJECT DIRECTOR SENIOR RESEARCHERS Lester R. Brown Lester R. Brown

ASSOCIATE PROJECT Alan B. Durning DIRECTORS Christopher Flavin Christopher Flavin Jodi Jacobson Sandra Postel Sandra Postel EDITOR Michael Rennei Linda Starke RESEARCHERS Hilary E French Marcia D. Lowe John E.Young

WW.NORTON & COMPANY NEW YORK LONDON

Printed in the United StatesorAmin Ica

ISBN 0-393-20788-0 ISBN 0-393-3G614-3 {PBK.}

W W. Nol ton & Compa, Inc..500 Fifth Avenue. New Yot k, N.Y. 10110 W. W Norton & Company Ltd.. 37Great Russell Street. London WCIB 3NU

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 s WORLD WATCH INSTITUTE BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Orville L. Freeman, Chairman Mahbub ul Hag UNITED STATES PAKISTAN Andrew E. Rice, Vice Chairman Hazel Henderson UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Lester R. Brown (Ex Officio) Anne-Marie Holenstein UNITED STATES SWITZERLAND Carlo M. Cipolla Abd-E1 Rahman Khane ITALY ALGERIA Edward S. Cornish Larry Minear UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Lynne Gallagher UNITED STATES

WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE STAFF Holly Brough Jennifer Hamilton Lester R. Brown Jodi Jacobson Denise Byers Steven R. Kaufman Linda Doherty Reah Janise Kauffman Stephen Dujack Nicholas Lenssen Alan B. Durning Marcia D. Lowe Christopher Flavin Meri McCoy-Thompson Hilary F. French Sandra Postel Guy Gorman Michael Renner James Gorman John Ryan Barbara Granzen John E. Young Blondeen Gravely Howard Youth Joseph Gravely

OFFICERS Lester R. Brown Christopher Flavin PRESIDENT Sandra Poste! Blondeen Gravely VICE PRESIDENTS, RESEARCH ;CE PRESIDENT, ADMINISTRATION AND FINANCE Acknowledgments

State of the Worldhas become something provided by the United Nations Popula- of an institution. Each year it is used by tion Fund and, through the Sasakawa governments and citizens throughout Environment Prize, the United Nations the world as a sort of touchstone of Environment Programme. progress in the search for a sustainable Chapters of this year's edition were course on the planet. But its growing reviewed on a moment's notice by a host statur- makes its production none the of scholars outside the institute. Among easier. them were James Broadus, Chris Cal- Dozens of people labored in one way well, Robert Chambers, Andy Clarke, or another to make possible this year's Mohamed El-Ashry, Malin Falkenmaik, edition. Our exceptional crew of re- Jonathan Feldman, Ellen Fletcher, Frank search assistants undertakes the Sisy- Gable, Graham Giese, Peter Gleick, phean task of tracking developments in Ralph Hirsch, Ken Hughes, Charles Ko- dozens of fieldsimultaneously. For manoff, Michael Lipton, Philip Micklin, their enthusiasm and fresh insight we John Milliman, Setty Pendakur, Paul thank Holly Brough (Chapters 8 and 9), Quigley, W. Robert Rangeley, Michael Meri McCoy-Thompson (Chapter 5), Replogle, Peter Sand, Mark Svendsen, and John Ryan (Chapters 3 and 10). For and Fiona Weir. Our thanks go to them their exceptional endurance and sea- all. sonedinstincts,wethankNicholas While the research staff labored on Lenssen (Chapters 2 and 10) and John preparingState of the World 1990,our ca- Young (Chapters 1 and 10). pable administrative and financial staff, TheState of the Wolldseries Las bene- skillfully guided by Vice President Blon- fited from the unflagging suppo,of a deen Gravely, kept sales ofState of the core group of funders from its inception. Wolld 1989flowing briskly and managed principally, The Rockefeller Brothers the massive daily tide of letters and tele- Fund and Winthrop Rockefeller Trust. phone calls. Linda Doherty' (in-house re- In addition, the report draws on recycling coordinator) saw to it that tens of search funded by several foundations, thousands of publications orders coin- includingtheGeraldineR.Dodge, ing in were quickly filled. Guy Gorman George Gund, William and Flora Hew l- distributed millions of facts among the ett, W. Alion Jones, William D. and researchers as he maintained our el er Catherine T. MacArthur, Andrew W. expanding library. And Reah Janise Mellon, Curtis and Edith Munson, Ed- Kauffman deftly managed our growing ward John Noble, Jessie Smith Noyes, computer network, all the while shoul- Public Welfare, and Rockefeller founda- dering the heavy burden of assisting the tions. Additional research funding was Institute's President. These Worldwatch Acknowledgments veterans were joined by gifted neyy com- ton & Company in Neu York, u ho ac- ers Joseph GraYely , Steye Kaufman, and commodate out idiosy nuacies uithout Barbara Granzen along with part-timer complaint, and to Bart Brou n, indexer Jennifer Hamilton. par excellence, for his speedy work with Director of Communications Stephen our page proofs. Dujack, assisted ably by Denise By ers, The cy cle of birth and death has been edited the Worldwatch Paper series, deeply felt in our small community this oversaw a hectic mailing schedule, and year. Joy.ously, yy elcomed a daughter facilitated relations with publishers, re- to Cynthia Pollock Shea and a son to porters, and citizens on every continent Michael Renner. Our y oungest research (exceptAntarctica). James Gorman, assistants have already been put to work aided by Howard Youth (in-house orni- proving that disposable diapers are ao thologist), carried the banncr of our better than cloth. award-winning magazine World Watch Sadly, we bid farewell to Felix Gorrell, during the onslaught of State of the World treasurer since Worldwatch's Yell incep- production. tion in 1974. More than just our trea- Some long-standing members of our surer, he was initially a midwife, helping team severed ties with the institute this bring the Institute into the world, and year to pursue other ambitions. Among then a godfather, always there with ad- them was Susan Norris, who retreated ice when we needed it. Over the y ears, from urban life to the farm country of he ceaselessly went beyond the call of southern Virginia. Cynthia Pollock Shea, duty to see that our resources were se- now in Calgary, Canada, divides her time cure, well invested, and carefully moni- between motherhood and Worldwatch, tored. This s o 1 um e is dedicated to his and Lori Heise is on a year's sabbatical memory; in it, we aspire to his unique doing health work with Indian women in blend ofis i o n and pragmatism. Guatemala. We owe a debt of gratitude to Iva Lestei R. Thown, Christopher Flavin, Ashner and Andy Marasia at W.W. Nor- and Sandra Postel Contents

List of Tables and Figures xi 4 FeeCing the World in the Nineties, Acknowledgments Vii byLesleiR. Brown and John E. Young 59 Foreword xv DEGRADATION A FFECTING I IAR VESTS I The Illusion of Progress, by Lesley I? LAND, WATER, AND FERTI LIZER Mown 3 BIOTEC IINO LOGY: A LIMITED THE EARTH 'S DECLINING CONTRIBUTION PRODUCTIVITY TH E SOVIET AGRICULTURAL RECALCULATING ECO NOM IC PROSPECT PROGRESS A TOUGH DECADE AHEAD THE BOTFOM LINE A POLITICAL AWAKEN! NG 5 Holding Back the Sea, by Jodi L. Jacobson 79 GLOBAL CHA NGES, LOCAL 2 Slowing Global Warming, OUTCOMES by Unstop/lei Flavin 17 LANDS AND PEOPLES AT RISK TII E GLOBAL CA RBON BUDGET MOST VULNERABLE, LEAST ALTERNATIVES TO FOSSIL FUELc RESPONSI BLE SUPPORT FOR THE TRANSITION PAVING BY THE METER OTHER GREENHOUSE STRATEGIES PLANNING AHEAD A NATIONAL AND GLOBAL POLICY A GEN DA 6 Clearing the Air, by Ildai) F. Fiench 98 TH E GLOBAL HEALTH 1 I 1 R EAT 3 Saving Water for Agriculture, THE ECOLOGICAL TOLL by Sandia PosIel 39 REDUCTION STRA1 EG I ES MOBILEZING FOR CLEANER AIR THE END OF AN ERA? TH E EN VIRONM ENTAI. PRICE TAG scARCrry, COMPF:11 noN, AND 7 Cyclin 1: Into the Future, by Maicia CONFLICT Lowe I I 9 WATER IN TIIE GREEN I IOUSE TI I E SI I.ENT MAJORITY WORLD VEHICLE FOR A SMALL PLANET STRATEGIES FOR THE NINETIES PEDAL-POWERED DEVELOPMF NT

1 0 (x) Contents

CYCLING SOCI EXIES THE PATH FORGED IW CHINA AND THE GETrING THERE FROM I IERE SOVIET UNION GRASSROOTS INITIATIVES IN TIIE WEST 8 Ending Poverty, by Alan 13. AN ALTERNA1 WE AGENDA Dimnng 135 AND THE POOR GET POORER 10 Picturing a Sustainable Society, THE GLOBAL POVERTY rRAP byLester1?. Brown. Chnstopher POVERTY AND TIIE ENVIRONMENT Ham, and Sandra Postel 173 REVERSING THE DOWNWARD POWERED IW THE SUN SPIRAL EFFICIENT IN ALL SENSES REUSING AND RECYCLING 9 Converting to a Peaceful Economy, MATERIALS by Michael Renner 154 WITH A RESTORED BIOLOGICAL BASE INITIAL OBSTACLES WITH A NEW SET OF VALUES WHAT IS CONVERSION? BUILDING A CONVERSION Notes 191 COALITION Index 243

11 List of Tables andFigures

LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1. The Illusion of Progress 1-1 World Population Growth by Decade, 1950-90,With Projection to 2000 5 1-2 Condition of Bureau of Land Management GrazedLand, 1987 7 Chapter 2. Slowing Global Warming 2-1 Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels, Selected Countries,1960 and 1987 19 2-2Estimated Carbon Emissions from Deforestation andFossil Fuels in Selected Tropical Countries 21 2-3Costs of Avoiding Carbon Emissions Associatedwith Alternatives to Fossil Fuels, 1989 27 2-4 Climate Policies, Enacted and Proposed, November1989 33 2-5Proposed Carbon Emission Goals, SampleCountries 35 2-6 Global Carbon Emissions, 1988, and Goals for2000 and 2010 37 Chapter 3. Saving Water for Agriculture 3-1Gross Irrigated Area, Top 15 Countries and theWorld, 1986 40 3-2Irrigated Land Damaged by Salinization, Top FiveIrrigators and World Esti- mate, Mid-Eighties 45 3-3Water Scarcity, Selected Countries and Regions 49 3-4Illustrative Irrigation Adjustments from GlobalClimate Change 53 Chapter 4. Feeding the World in the Nineties 4-1Estimated Land Degradation in the Late Seventies 60 4-2India: Area Subject to Flooding 62 4-3Crude Estimate of Additional Loss of World GrainOutput Each Year as a Result of Environmental Degradation 64 4-4 World Grainland, Total and Per Capita,199:1-80, With Projectionsto 2000 66 4-5World Gross Irrigated Area, Total and Per Capita,1950-80, With Projections to 2000 67 4-6Grain Production and Fertilizer Use in World'sFour Leading Grain-Producing Countries, 1986 74

1 2 (Ail) Lisl of Tables and ngures 4-7World Grain Production, Total and Per Capita, 1950-80, With Pi ojections to 2000 76

Chapter 5. Holding Back the Sea 5-1Varying Estimay 3 of Sea Level Rise by 2100, by Source 83 5.2Estimates of Sea Level Rise, 2000-2100 84 5-3 Ten Countries Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise 89

Chapter 6. Clearing the Air 6-1Violations of Sulfur Dioxide and Suspended Particulate Matter Standards, Selected Cities 101 6-2Health Effects of Pollutants from Automobiles 102 6-3Evidence of Acidified Likes, Selected Countries 105 6-4Forest Damage in Europe, 1988 108 6-5Sulfur Pollution in Selected European Countries, 1988 115

Chapter 7. Cycling Into the Future 7-1Cycling as Share of Daily Passenger Trips, Selected Cities 121 7-2Bicycles and Automobiles in Selected Countries, Circa 1985 121 7-3United States: Energy Intensity of Selected Transport Modes, 1984 124

Chapter 8. Ending Poverty 8-1Approximate Income Distribution of Most Populous Nations and of World, Most Recent Available Year 138 8-2People Estimated to be Living in Absolute Poverty, 1989 139 8-3Lmdless and Near-Landle-,s Agricultural Households, Selected Countries and Africa, Mid-Seventies 142

Chapter 9. Converting to a Peaceful Economy 9-1Share of Industrial Work Force Employed in Military-Serving Industry, Selected Countries. Mid-Eighties 158 9-2United Kingdom: Recent Conversion Initiatives 168

LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1. The Illusion of Progress 1-1 World Grain Production Per Capita, 1950-89 10 1-2World Wheat and Rice Prices, 1950-89 11

Chapter 2. Slowing Global Warming 2-1Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 1950-88 18 2-2Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 1950-88, With Alternative Projections to 2010 36 13 List of Tables and Figures (mu) Chapter 3. Saving Water for Agriculture 3-1World Net Irrigated Area Per Capita, 1950-87 41 3-2Sea Area, 1960-85, and Irrigation Consumption,1963-87, in Aral Sea Ba- sin 46

Chapter 4. Feeding the World in the Nineties 4-1World Net Irrigated Area, 1900-87 66 4-2Share of Wheatland Planted to High-Yiekling Varietiesin India, 1965-83 68 4-3Grain Output in the Soviet Union and China, 1950-89 72 4-4World Grain Yield Per Hectare, 1950-89 75 Chapter 6. Clearing the Air 6-1Emissions of Selected Pollutants in the United States,1950-87 100 Chapter 8. Ending Poverty 8-1 Income Per Person, Four Economic Classes of Countries,1950-88 137 8-2Commodity Price Indexes and Total Third World Debt,1970-87 144 Chapter 9. Converting to a Peaceful Economy 9-1 Employment InT.S. Military Industry, 1950-89 156 9-2 Job Losses Under Four Disarmament Scenarios,1990-2015 159

4 Foreword

During 1989, politically astute national East-West ideological conflict wanes, it leaders sensed the mounting public con- will free the time and energy of political cern over the future of the planet, and leaders to concentrate on environmental moved quickly to rit' -I up. Some, such threats to security.t will also facilitate a as U.K. Prime M ..!r Thatcher and reordering of prio-ities, providing re- French President Mitterand, hostedcon- sources tc reforest the earth, stop popu- ferences. Those assembled at the Group lationgrowth, and developenergy of Seven economic summit in July issued sources that will stabilize the earth's cli- a communique. All in all, these initia- mate. tives were long on rhetoric and shorton action. Within this environmental decade, 1990 promises to be the Year of the En- In the short run, political leaderscan get by with speeches and professions of vironment. Earth Day 1990, to be cele- concern. But over the longer run, build- brated on April 22nd, will mark the inganenvironmentallysustainable twentieth anniversary of the first Earth economy requiresspecificsteps and Day and provide an organizing focus in tough choices. People everywhereare the spring for environment-il education wurried about the environmental degra- and policy initiatives of all kinds. The dation of the planet. They want action. airing of a major series for public televi- This tide of concern may mark the be- sion based on the State of the 1Vor1dre- ginning of an environmental decade,a ports will provide a focal point in the fall. time when we will be increasinglypreoc- Entitled "Race to Save the Planet," this cupied with trying to restot e the earth's series, produced by the Nova unit at health. public television station WGBH in Bos- The trends of environmental degrada- ton, will provide a global overview of tiondescribedintheprevioussix what it will take to reverse the degrada- volumes in this annual series all continue tion of the planet. Given the intense in- unabated: Forests are sh:inking, deserts terest in these issues, we expect the se- expanding, and soils eroding. The de- ries will be seen throughout the world. pletion of the stratospheric ozone layei Increasingly, efforts to deal with envi- that protects us from harmful ultraviolet ronmental issues are becoming interna- radiation appears to have escalated. The tional. Yet the United Nations does not levels of carbon dioxide and other heat- produce an integrated analysis of the trapping gases in the atmospherecon- global interaction of energy, environ- tinue to build in an all too predictable ment, food, population, and economic fashion. trends of the sort contained in thean- Only a monumental effort canreverse nual Worldwatch volume. Nor doesany- the deterioration of the planet. As the one else. In the absence of such am. analy- (xm) Foremoid sis, State of the Woild has become a basic than 800 courses in some 600 U.S. col- resource I'm policyrnakers and for the leges and universities. Its use as a sup- thousandsof em ironmentalac tion plemental text has climbed rapidlyour groups that have sprung up all over the contribution to the environmental liter- world. acy of the next generation. From the outset, we at the Institute The goal of the Institute is to help have sem our constituency as a global raise the level of public understanding of one. With the addition of French and global environmentalthreatstothe Portuguese, Stale of the irmlel is now pub- point whereitwillsupportp,..'icies lished in all the world's major languages: needed to reverse these trends. Our Spanish, Arabic, Chinese, Japanese, In- global public education effort is making donesian,German,Italian,Polish, progress, but we have a long way to go. French, Portuguese, and Russian, in ad- As the new decade begins, the world dition to English. It also is slated for has a fresh opportunity to reorder pri. publication in several less widely spoken orities, focusing on the real threats to languages, including Norwegian, Swed- our common future. Just as no one could ish, Dutch, Hungarian, and Korean. imagine the rate at which the waves of 'The market for integrated or interdis- reform swept across Eastern Europe in ciplinary research of the sort that tharac- late 1989, so too may we be surprised by terizes Worldwatch publications is grow- the pace of environmental reform in the Mg by leaps and bounds. This is evident early nineties as we mobilize to save the in sales of the Worldwatch Paper series planet. and in subscriptions for World Wakh magazine, launched at the beginning of Lester R. Brown 1988. Income from publication sales and Project Director royalties reached $1.6 million and covered 60 percent of the Institute's budget Christopher Flavin for 1989. Sandra Postel Distribution of State of the Mild in all Associate Project Directors languages is climbing, with English the Worldwatch Institute firstto break the 100,000 mark. Al- 1776 Massachusetts AVe., N.W. though sales go largely ,o policyrnakers Washington, D.C. 20036 and concerned individuals, the latest volume was adopted for use in more December 1989

1 6 STATE OF THE WORLD 1990

17 1 The Illusion ofProgress .. Lester R. Brown

For most of the nearly four fifths of hu- and tens of thousands of its plant and manity born sMce World War II, life has animal species.3 seemed to be a period of virtually unin- During this same period, atmospheric terrupted economicprogress.Since carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have in- mid-century, the global economic prod- creased by 13 percent, setting the stage uct has nearly quintupled. On average, forhotter summers. The protective the additional economic output in each ozone layer in the stratosphere has been of the last four decades has matched that depleted by 2 percent worldwide and far added from the beginning of civilization more over Antarctica. Dead lakes and until 1950.' dying forests have become a naturalac- World food output during this period companiment of industrialization. His- also grew at a record pace. Soaring de- torians in the twenty-first centurymay mand fueled by population growth and marvel at this economic performance-- rising affluence provided the incentive, and sorrow over its environmentalcon- and modern technology themean3, to sequences.4 multiply the world's grain harvest 2.6 Throughout our lifetimes, economic times since mid-century. No othergen- trendshaveshapedenvironmental erationhaswitnessedgainseven trends, often altering the earth's natural remotely approaching this.2 resources and systems in ways not obvi- Such gains would seem to be a cause ous at the time. Now, as we enter the for cekbration, but instead there isa nineties, the reverse is also beginning ,c) sense of illusion, a feeling that they happen: environmental trendsare be- overstate progress. The system of na- ginning to shape economic trends. tional accounting used to measureeco- The environmental degradation of the nomic progress incorporates the depre- planet is starting to show )...,) at harvest ciation of plant and equipment, but not time. The cumulative effects of losing 24 the depletion of natural capital. Since billion tons of topsoil eachyear are mid-century, the world has lost nearly being felt in some of the world's major one fifth of the topsoil from its crop- food-producingregions.Recentevi- land, a fifth of its tropical rain forests, dence indicates that air pollution is dam- agingcropsinbothauto-centered Units of measniement are metrk unless common economies of the West and coal-burning usage dictates otherwise. economies of the East. Meteorologists

18 State of tae World 1990 cannot yet be certain, but the hotter food consumption per person is los% er summers and drought-reduced harvests today thanitwas when the decade of the eighties may be early indications began. Infant mortality ratesa sensi- of the greenhouse effect.8 tive indicator of nutritional stressap- Environmental degradation undoubt- pear to have turned upward in many edly contributed to the slower growth in countries in Africa and Latin America, ww-ld grain output during the eighties. reversing a long-term historical trend. The 2.6-fold gain in world grain output Nations in which there are enough data just mentioned occurred between 1950 to document this rise include Brazil, the and 1984; since then, there has oeen no DominicanRepublic. El Salvador, appreciableincrease. The 1989es- Ghana, Madagascar, Mexico, Peru, Uru- timated harvest (1.67 billion tons) was guay, and Zambia.8 up only 1pei cent from th:lt of 1984, Environmental degradation is affect- which means that grain output per per- ing more than economic and social son is down nearly 7 percent. Some two trends: 1989 was the year environmental thirds of this fall in production has been issues moved into the political main- offset by drawing down stocks, reducing stream. In Western Europe, environ- them to a precariously low level; the re- mentalists won resounding gains in leg- mainder, by reducing consumption. Al- islative races. And environmental issues thoughfiyeyearsisobviously not moved to the forefront of political de- enough time tosignify a long-term bate in Poland, the Soviet Union, Japan, trend,it does show that the world's and Australia. Unfortunately, rising po- farmers are finding it more difficult to litical awareness has not yet translated keep up with growth in population.6 Into policies that will reverse the deteriorating situation:8 On the two most important fronts in The world's farmers are finding it the race to save the planet,topping more difficultto keep up with population growth and stabilizing cli- matethe world is losing ground. Some growth in population. progress has been made in slowing the rate of population growth since 1970, but the decline has been so gradual that Nowhere is this more clear than in the annual increment grows larger each Africa, sYhere the combination of record year. During the eighties, world popula- population growth and widespread land tion increased by 842 million, an average degradation is reducing grain produc- of 84 million a year. (See Table 1-1.) tion per person. A drop of 20 percent During the next I 0 years it is projected from the peak in 1967 has converted the to grow by 959 million, the ;3-sest incre- continent into a grain importer, fueled ment ever for a single decade. As the the region's mounting external debt, annual excess of births oyer deaths con- and left millions of Africans hungry and tinues to widen, the date of population physically weakened, drained of their vi- stability is pushed eyer further into the tality and productivity. In a 1989 report future." sketching out several scenarios for this Progressinstabilizingclimateis beleaguered continent, World Bank ana- equally disappointing. (See Chapter 2.) lysts termed the simple extrapolation of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use recer.ttrendsthe"nightmaresce- declined for several years as countries nario."7 invested heavilyinenergy efficiency In both Africa and Latin America, measures. But in the last few years they

19 The Illusion of Progress (5 ) Table 1-1. World Population Growth by terials for industry; except for seafood, Decade, 1950-90, With Projection to 2000 they provide all our food. Forestsare the source of fuel, lumber, paper, and nu- Increase merous other products. Grasslands pro- Average vide meat, milk, leather, and wool. Crop- Popu- by Annual Year lation lands supply food, feed, and an endless Decade Increase array of raw materials for industry such (billion) (million) as fiber and vegetable oils. 1950 2.515 Common to all these biological sys- 1960 3.019 504 50 tems is the process of photosynthesis. 1970 3.698 679 68 the ability of plants to use solar energy to 1980 4.450 752 75 combine water and carbon dioxideto 1990 5.292 842 84 produce carbohydrates. Althoughan es- 2000 6.251 959 96 timated 41 percent or photosyntheticac- tivity takes place in the oceans, it is the SOURCE United Nations. Department of Interna- 59 percent occurring on land that under- tional Economic and Social Affairs,World Popula- tton Prospects 1988(New York: 1989). pins the world economy. And it is the loss of terrestrial photosynthesis asa re- have started to rise again. Leading insult of environmental degradation that is dustrial economies, such as the United undermining manynationalecono- States and Japan, are the primarycon- mies." tributors to this unfortunate globalup- The biological activity that supplies turn. In 1987, global c-irbon emissions the bulk of our food and raw materials from fossil fuels rose 1.5 percent and in takes place on the nearly one third of the 1988, 3.7 percent, reaching a record earth's surface that is land, some 13 bil- total of 5.7 billion tons." lion hecares. According to a U.N. Food Reading the daily newspapers gives and Agriculture Organization tabulation the impression that changes in economic for 1986, 11 percent of thisnearly 1.5 indicators such as the gross national billion hectaresis used to produce product (GNP), interest rates,or stock crops. Roughly 25 percent is pasture or prices are the keys to the future. But it is rangeland, providing grass or other for- changes in the biological product that age for domesticated livestock and wild are shaping civilization. It is changes in herbivores. A somewhat larger area (31 the size of the photosynthetic product percent) is in forests, including open for- that determine ultimately how many of ests or savannahs only partly covered us the earth can support and at what with trees. The remaining 33 percent of level of consumption. the wortd's land supports little biological activity. It is either wasteland,essentially desert, or has been pavedover or built on." The share of land planted to crops increased from the time agriculture began THE EARTH'S DECLINING until 1981, hut since then thearea of PRODUCTIVITY newly reclaimed land has been offset by that lost to degradation and converted to Three biological systemscroplands, nonfarm uses. The grassland area has forests, and grasslandssupport the shrunk sirie the mid-seventies, asover- world economy. Except for fossil fuels grazing slowly converts it to desert. The and minerals, they supply all theraw ma- forested area has been shrinking forcen-

20 (6) Slide of Me Woild 1990 turies, but the losses accelerated at mid- grassland degradation can nol% be seen century and even more from 1980 on- on eery continent. Although the data ward. The combined area of these three for grassland degradation are even more biologicallyproductivecategoriesis sketch)than for forest clearing,the shrinking while the remaining catego- trends are no less real. This problem is rieswasteland and that covered by highly N i sibl e throughout Africa, where human settlementsare expanding." livestock numbers ha) e expanded nearly Not only is the biologically productive as fast as the human population. In land area shrinking, but on part of it pro- 1950,238 million Africans relied on 272 ductivity is falling. In forests, for exam- million livestock. By 1987, the human ple, output is being lcmered on some population had increased to 604 million, remaining stands, apparently by air pol- and the livestock to 543 million.17 lution and acid rain. (See Chapter 6.) In a continent where grain is scarce, Evidence of this damage in industrial 183 million cattle, 197 million sheep, countriesis now widespread. In the and 163 million goats are supported al- United States, it can be found through- most entirely by grazing and browsing. out much of the country, and in Europe Everywhere outside the tsetse-fly belt, it stretches from the Atlantic coast in the livestock are vital to the economy, but in west to the remote reaches of Siberia in many countries their numbers exceed the east." grassland carrying capacity by half or Even an experienced forester often more. A study charting the mounting cannot see any changes in the trees that pressures on grasslands in nine southern would indicate slower growth, only care- African countries found thlt the capacity ful measurements over time show how to sustain livestock is diminishing. As much pollutants are stressing trees. A grasslands deteriorate, soil erosion ac- Forest Inventory Analysis conducted celerates, further reducing the carrying regularly by the U.S. Forest Service re- capacity and setting in motion a self- ports that the annual growth of ye:low reinforcing cycle of ecological L grada- pines, a major species covering some 42 tion and deepening human poverty.'8 million hectares in the Southeast, de- Fodder needs of livestock in nearly all clined by 30-50 percent between 1955 developing countries now exceed the and 1985. From 1975 to 1985, the dead sustainable yield of grasslands and other pines increased from 9 percent of all forage resources. In India, the demand trees to 15 percent. Soviet foresters re- by the end of the decade is expected to port a decline in tree growth rates in reach 700 million tons, while the supply central Siberia over the last few decades 1) ill total just 540 million. The National that is remarkably similar." Land Use and Wastelands Development Council there reports that in states with the most serious land degradation, such In forests, output is being lowered, as Rajasthan and Karnataka, fodder sup- apparently by air pollution and plies satisfy only 50-80 percent of needs, leaving large numbers of emaciated cat- acid rain. tle. When drought occurs, hundreds of thousands of these animals die. In recent years, local governments in India have While forest productivity is being di- established fodder relief camps for cattle minished by chemical stress,that of threatened with starvation, much as food grasslands is being reduced by the ph) si- relief camps are set up for people simi- cal stress of overgrazing. Widespread larly threatened."

21 The Illusion of Progress (7) Overgrazing is not limited to the that humans now appropriate closeto 40 Third World. In the UnitedStates, percent of the land's net primary biolog- where the Bureau of Land Management ical product. In other words, nearly40 (BLM) is responsible for 66 million hecu. percent of the earth's land-based photo- ares of government-owned grazing land, synthetic activity is devotedto the satis- overgrazing is commonplace. A 1987 Uaction of human needs or has beenlost survey found that only 33 percent of the as a result of human degradation of nat- BLM's rangeland was in goodto excel- ural systems. M ourown share contin- lent condition; 58 percentwas fair to ues to increase, it becomes more difficult poor. (See Table 1-2.) for other species to survive. Eventually, As the deterioration of grazing lands life-supporting systems could beginto continues,someofit eventually unrave1.21 becomes wasteland, convertedto desert To summarize, at a time when demand by the excessive demands of growing for various biological products is rising livestock populations. Andas the forage rapidly, the earth's biological produc- available to support animals diminishes, tion is shrinking. Theeven greater an- pressure shifts to croplands to produce nual additions to world population in more grain to feed livestock, thus int.:::-.- prospect for the nineties will further sifying the competition between humans re- and animals for scarce food supplies. duce the earth's ability to supplyour The loss of productive woodland, food and raw materials. Thesetwo trends cannot continue indefinitely.At grassland, and cropland to nonfarmuses some point, the continuing decline in is also progressingon every continent, the photosynthetic product will translate though at valying rates. Eachyeai , mil- into a decline in the economic product. lions of hectares of biologically productive land are paved overor built upon. Growth in the world's automobile fleet, though it has slowed dramaticallyover the last decade, is nonetheless leadingto the paving of more andmore of the RECALCULATING ECONOMIC earth's surface with streets, roads, and PROGRESS parking spaces. Each car addedto the world fleet competes with farmers.20 Looking at the basic biologicalsystems Stanford University biologist Peter M. just discussed, the world isnot doing Vitousek and his colleagues estimate vcry well. Yet key economic indicators show the world is prospering. Despitea Table 1-2. Condition of Bureau of Land slow start at the beginning of the eight- Management Grazed Land, 1987 ies, global economic output expanded by more than a fifth during the decade. Condition Percentl The economy grew, trade increased,and Excellent 3 millions of new jobswere created. How Good 30 can basic biological indicators beso Fair 39 bearish and economic indicatorsso bull- Poor 19 ish at the same time?22 'Column totals 91 because the condition of 9 The answer is that the economic in- percent of land was not reported. dicators are flawed ina fundamental SOURCE U S. Department of the Intenor, Btueau way: they do not distinguish betweenre- of Land Management, Public Land Statistics,1987 source uses that sustain progress and (Washington, D.C.: 1988). those that undermine it. The principal

r. 2 (8) Stale of the Wodd 1990 measure of economic progress is the Including changes in the stock of natu- gross national product. In simple terms, ral capital represents a major adY ance in this totals the value of all goods and ser- national economic accounting. but if this vices produced and subtracts deprecia- system is to be a basis inr policymakirg tion of capital assets. Developed a half- in an era when enviammental issues centuryago, GNP accountshelped loom large, it will have to go one step establish a common means among coun- further and incorporate the environ- tries of measuring changes in economic mental effects of economic activity. For output over time. For some time, this instance, the deforestation that led to a seemed to work reasonably well, but se- net loss in Indonesia's natural capital rious weaknesses are now surfacing. As also contributed to the buildup of CO2 noted earlier, GNP includes deprecia- around the world, thus hastening global tion of plant and equipment, but it does warming. How much will it cost to cope not take into account the depreciation of with the share of climate change due to natural capital, including nonrenewable deforestation in Indonesia? resources such as oil or renewable re- Or consider the oil produced in In- sources such as forests.23 donesia, which Repetto incorporated as This shortcoming can produce a mis- a net reduction in the country's natural leading sense of nationaleconomic capital. To what extent is it contributing health. According to the conventional to the serious air pollution problem in approach, for example, countries that Jakarta andtorespiratoryillnesses overcut forests actually do better in the among the residents? How much is the short run than those that manage forests Indonesian oil burned in the Nether- on a sustained-yield basis: the trees cut lands contributing to the air pollution down are counted as income but no sub- and acid rain destroying lakes in Scan- traction is made to account for depletion dinavia and forests in West Germany? It of the forest, a natural asset. The advan- is certainly true that data on , he costs of tage is short-lived, however, as overcut- lost forest productivity in Europe or of ting eventually destroys the resource global warming are not Yery good. But is base entirely, leading to a collapse of the that a good reason to ignore them en- forest products industry.24 tirely rather than try to make some esti- To illustrate the flaws in current GNP mates, however crude they are, and in- accounting, economist Robert Repetto corporatethemintothenational and his colleagues at the World Re- economic accounts? The consequences sources :nstitute recalculated the GNP are so profoundly important thatit of Indonesia, incorporating the deple- would be better to include eyen the tion of natural capital. Considering only roughest of estimates. oil depletion, soil erosion, and deforest- Another way to grasp the importance ation, he showed that Indonesia's eco- of natural cap;tai depreciation would be nomic growth rate from 1971 to 1984, to look at a particular sector of the world originally reported at 7 percent, was in economy, such as food, and subtract reality only 4 percent. The conventional from national accounts the value of out- system not only sometimes overstates put that is pi oduced unsustainably . This progress, it may indicate progress when would also help determine how much of there is actually decline. In Repetto's re- our consumption is at the expense of fu- vised system of national economic ac- ture generations. Grain is currently pro- counting, natural capital depletion gets a duced, for example, by cultivating highly line entry just as depreciation of plant erodiblelandthatwilleventually and equipment does.25 become wasteland or by inte sifying 2 3 The Illusion of Progress (9) farming in ways that lead to excessive up in the national economic accounts or soil erosion and cropland loss.26 resource inventories of most countries, In the United States, an estimated 13 it is nonetheless serious. And it is largely million hectares of cropland was losing unrecognized, since the intensification topsoil so rapidly that Congress haspro- of cropping patterns and the plowing of vided for its conversionLo grassland or marginal lands that lead to excessive woodland before it becomes wasteland. erosion over the long runcan lead to If this were all Great Plain, wheatland, it production gains in the shortrun, thus would produce roughly 2.5tons of grain creating the illusion of progress anda per hectare, for a total of 33 million tons. false sense of food security. Since a minor share is higher yielding midwestern cornland, thisis a lower bound estimate for unsustainable grain output.27 The loss of topsoil does not show ln addition, one fifth of the 20 million up in national economic accounts hectares of U.S. irrigated land is being or resource inventories. watered b) drawing down water tables by 15-152 centimeters (6 inchesto 5 feet) per year. If, for purposes of calculation, it is assumed that water tablesare Ifalltheenvironmentalconse- eventually stabilized under 2 million quences of economic activityfrom re- hectares of this 4 million hectare total by sourcedepletiontothenumerous increasing water use efficiency and that forms of environmental damagewere the other 2 million hectares revertsto included, real economic progress would dryland farming, grain outputon the lat- be much less than conventimaleco- ter would be reduced by perhaps 4 tons nomic measures indicate. The chal- per hectare or 8 million tons. Thus the lenge to governments is to revisena- 41 million tons of grain produced with tionalaccounting systemssoasto the unsustainable use of land andwater reflect more precisely real changes in in the United States alone would offset output. Just as we deflate reportzd eco- most of the excess production capacity nomic growth with a price deflator,we in world agriculture.28 most also apply an ecological deflator if If adjustment were made for all grain we are to measure real progress. With- produced with the unsustainableuse of out this, we will continue to delude our- land and water worldwide,it would selvesinto thinking we are making show a grain output well belowcon- progress when we are not. sumption and provide a much bleaker A few governments and international sense of global food security. When the organizations are staiting to move in this unsustainable use of land and water is direction. Laws enacted by the U.S. Con- eventually abandoned, itwill dramati- gress in 1989 require the federal govern- cally tighten world food supplies, push- ment to calculate a "gross sustainable ing prices upward. productivity" for the United States each With the existing economicaccount- year in conjunction with the annual GNP ing system, those who overplow and figures, and to work with international overpump appear to be doing very well organizations and agencies to revisena- in the short run, even while facinga ditional i:ccounting systems. Farther, the sastrous collapse over the long run. Al- United Nations is consideringa revision though the loss of topsoil does not show of its own system.29

24 (lo) State of the World 1990 THE BOTTOM LINE that the rapid ascent in production of this essential commodity could continue We know that we cannot continue to indefinitely. Tile 2.6-fold increase in the damage our life-support systems v. ithout NV orld grain hall, est between 1950 and eentually paying a price, but how will 1984 (nearly 3 percent a year) raised per we be affected? What will the price be? capita production by more than one Is it likely to be a buildup of carcinogens third. But between 1984 and 1989, over- in the environment so severe it increases all output rose by only 1 percent. (See the incidence of cancer, dramatically Figure 1-1.) This five-year period is too raising death rates? Or will the rising short to show a trend because ueather concentration of greenhouse gases make fluctuations could be partly responsible some regions of the planet so hot that for the slowdown, but it is an unsettling they become uninhabitable, forcing mas- interruption in food output growth.32 sive human migrations? Or willit be The downturn in grain production per something we cannot even anticipate capita that became firmly establish 4:1 in yet? Africa during the seventies and spread to We also know we cannot keep adding Latin America during the early eighties ever mot e people to the planet each 12 thus engulfed the entire world in the late ,nonths. Adding 88 million people a eighties. In 1989, higher grain prices to yearthe equivalent of the population farmers, the return to production of of the United Kingdom combined with idled U.S. cropland, and near-normal those of Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, weather were expected to restore pro- Norway, and Swedenwill eventually duction and permit a rebuilding of de- get us into trouble. What form that pleted grain stocks. But this did not hap- trouble take? And is it imminent or in pen.Withcarryoverstocksnow ',.he distant future?" amounting to little more than pipeline Amidst the uncertainty, food scarcity supplies, there is little cushion for short in developing countries is emerging as harvests in the future. Falls in produc- the most profound and immediate con- tion will translate directly into falls in sequence of global environmental deg- consumption." radation, one already affecting the wel- Why has production not increased fare of hundreds of millions. All the during this five-year period, a time in principal changes in the earth's physical condition--eroding soils, shrinking for- Kilograms ests, deteriorating rangelands, expand- 400 ingdeserts,acidrain,stratospheric ozone depletion, the buildup of green- 350 house gases, air pollution, and the loss of biologicaldiversityare affecting food production negatively. Deteriorat- 300 ing diets in both Africa and Latin Amer. . ica during the eighties, a worldwide fall 250 in per capita grain production since 1984, and the rise in world wheat and 200 Source: U.S Dept. rice prices over the last two years ny be Agrtculture early signs of the troublethatlies ahead.3' 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 After a generation of record growth in Figure 1.1. World Grain Production Per Capita, world food output, it smnetimes seemed 1950-89

2 5 The Illumonof Piogiess (II) .. which the world's farmers investedbil- Dollars lions of dollars to expandoutput, and in Pcr Menc Ton which fertilizer use increased by 18mil- 1.400 lion tons, a gain of 14 percent? Thcreis Source: International no single explanation. Three historical Monetary Fund trends are converging to make it more 1,000-(1988 dollars) difficult to expand world foodoutput. Rice I One is the growing scarcity ofnew cropland and fresh water that affectsmost of the world. The second is the lackof any new technologies, such as hybrid corn or chemical fertilizer, thatcan dramatically boost output. And the third is thenega- tive effects of planetary environmental degradation on food production. Any 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 one of these trends could slow the Figure 1-2. World Wheat and Rice Pnces, 1950-81 growth in food output. But theconver- gence of all three could alter the food prospect for the nineties in a way the tion levels -ices could rise dramati- world is not prepared for.34 callyas they did in the mid-seventies.35 The sad reality is that the contribu- The combination of falling incomes in most of Africa and Latin America and tions to increased output ofgreater ferti- the grain price rises of the last fewyears lizer use, continuing modestexpansion in irrigated area, and other technologi- has forced consumption below the level of survival for millions. An estimated cal advances are being partly offsetby soilerosion, 40,000 infants die each day in the Third thewaterlogging and World as a result of severe nutritional salinity of irrigated cropland, air pollu- stress and infectious disease. Tragically, tion, and several other forms of environ- higher grain prices also mental degradation. (See Chapter 4 for mean that food a more detailed analysis of these envi- assistance, which is determined by bud- ronmental effects.) getary allocations, is actually falling just The first concrete economic indica- as chronic food scarcity becomes a part of the landscape in much of the Third tionof broad-basedenvironmental World." deterioration now seems likelyto be rising grain prices. After reachingan all- time low of $224 per ton in 1986 (in If before stocks 1988 dollars), rice pricesrose to an es- are rebuilt the timated $309 for 1989,an increase of 38 UnitedStates experiencesa percent. Wheat prices, which bottomed drought-reduced harvest, grainex- in 1987 at $117 per ton,rose 48 percent, ports will slow to a trickle. to an estimated $173 per ton in 1989. (See Figure 1-2.) If world grain production should surge upward in the nineties, The world enters the nineties this price rise will be checked. If, not only on the with a low level of grain inreserve, but other hand, the world's farmers stillhave withlittle confidence that the "car- difficulty expanding productionat the 28 ryover" stocks can be rebuilt quickly million tons a year required merelyto Sketching out theconsequences of a maintain current per capitaronsump- poor harvest while stocks are this low (12) State of the World 1990 sounds like the outline of a science fic- nailcialinstitutions. The linkage be- tion catastrophe novel. If before stocks tween the environmental degradation lf are rebuilt the United States experiences 'he planet and the economic prospect a drought-reduced harvest similar to would have become all too apparent. that of 1988, which dropped grain pro- The number of hungry people in the duction below domestic consumption, world has increased dramatically during U.S. grain exports will slow to a trickle. the eighties. Reversing the spread of Nearly everyt..ing produced would be hunger will depend on a massive effort needed to satisfy domestic consumption. tocut the world rate of population By early fall, the more than 100 coun- growth and restore the health of the tries that import U.S. grain would be planet. We can no longer separate our competing for meager exportable sup- health from that of our home. If the plies from Argentina, Australia, and health of the planet continues to deterio- France. Fierce competition could double rate, so will that of its inhabitants.s8 or triple grain prices, driving them far In many ways, changes in the amount above anylevelpreviouslyexperi- of grain that can be sustainably pro- enced.37 duced per person may be the best single By early winter, the extent of starva- indicator of success in the battle to save tion, food riots, and polital instability the planet. If an upward trend can be in the Third World would force govern- restoredintheyearsimmediately ments in affluent industrial societies to aheadone that reduces hunger and consider tapping the only remaining malnutritioni . will be a clear sign of food reserve of any sizethe 600 million victory. If, on the other hand, per capita tons of grain fed to livestock. If they de- grain supplies continue to decline, lead- cided to i estrict livestock feeding and ing the world into an era of food scarcity, use the grain saved for food relief, gov- rising food prices, and political instabil- ernments would have to devise a mecha- ity, it will be a sure sign that the battle is nism for doing so. Would they impose a being lost. meat tax to discourage consumption and free up grain? Would they ration livestock products, much as was done in many countries during World War H?38 Forcing millions of the world's poor to A POLITICAL AWAKENING the brink of starvation would be th- most immediate and tragic consequence of Scenes of people and nations competing such A food emergency, but the interna- for scarce grain supplies after another tional monetary system would also be in drought thankfully did not make the jeopardy. Third We -Idgovernments front pages last year. But the news of the desperately trying to import enough planet's health was dire enough to keep high-priced grain to avoid widespread the environment on magaz'ne covers starvation would have little foreign ex- and in television broadcasts day after change for debt payments. Whethei all day. And it finally brought the issue into the major internati nal banks could the political mainstream. Concern over withstand such a wholesale forfeiture of the future of the planet pushed the envi- income is problematic. At this point, tne ronment toward center stage in political effects of food scarcity would spread structures at all levels, from town coun- beyond the Thii u World hungry, driving cils to the U.N. General Assembly. Inter- interest rates upward and threatening national diplomacy, nAonal political the integrity ocading international fi- campaigns, and grassroots political ac- The Illuswn of Progress (13 ) tivity are increasingly being shaped by Guaranteeing this right is the paramount environmental issues. In everycorner of dtky of those in charge of all States the wodd, environmentalism ison the throughout the woi id. Today, thevery rise. conditions of life on our planetare Initially, international environmental threatened by the severe attacks to which ic;sles were confined to localtrans- the earth's atmosphere is subjected."'" boundary concerns, such as discussk on acid rain between the United Stai and Canada or the pollution of interna- Environmental security issues tionally shared rivers like the Rhine in now Europe. More recently, genuinely global share the stage with more tradi- issues such as ozone depletion, clinnte tional economic and militarycon- change, and the preservation of biologi- cerns. cal diversity have attracted the attention of national political leaders and the international community. Environmental This tone set the stage fora statement security issues now share thestage with in which the international community more traditional economic and military went the furthest ever in recommending concerns, inaugurating a new age of en- that the United Nations be givenen- vironmental diplomacy. forcement powers. It argued fora new or Political leaders organized several im- newly strengthened U.N. institutional portant meetings in1989.In early authority to deal with global warming March, Prime Minister Thatcherim- and ozone depletion that would "involve pressed by new scientific evidenceon de- such decision-making proceduresas may pletion of the ozone layerhosteda be effective even if, on occasion, unani- three-day international conferenceon mous agreement has not been the subject. Specifically, her aimwas to achieved." And it discussed the needto convince more countries to support the "develop instruments and definestan- Montreal Protocol goal of halving the dards to enhance or guarantee thepro- use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), the tection of the atmosphere and monitor family of chemicals responsible for the compliance," questions on which would damage, by the end of the nineties. By be referred to the :nternational Court of the close of the London conference, 20 Justice. more countries had agreed to sign the Though it remains unclear whenif protocol, bringing the total to 66. And everthe Hague Declaration's call will 11 more indicated theywere seriously be heeded, it s becoming increasingly considering doing the same." clear that some reform of the current A meeting in the Hague the following international environmental machinery week, organized by the governments of is on the horizon. It is widely expected France, the Netherlands, and Norway, thatinstitutionalreformwillfigure considered the challenges to interna- prominently on the agenda of the 1992 tional governance posed by the twin World Conference on Environment and problems of global warming andozone Development, on the twentieth anniver- depletion. Political representatives of 24 sary of the ::;tockholm meeting. The vari- countries, including 17 heads ofgovern- ous proposals on the table at the moment, attended the conference. The ment include a British one to give the three-pageHagueDeclarationthey existing U.N. Security Councilan envi- agreed to began: "The right to live is the ronmental role, a Soviet suggestionto right from which all other rightsstem. estabhsh an ecological councilseparate (14) State of the Woad 1990 from but equal in stature to the present change, deforestation, and ozoni deple- Security Council, a private proposal to tion consumed a good part of the week- transform the moribund Trusteeship end conference and dominated the com- Council into an environmental body, muniqué released at its end.45 andnear-universalsupportfora In Europe. the results of elections for strengthened U.N. Environment Pro- the European Parliament provided un- gramme.4 2 mistakable evidence that the electorate In late March 1989, 116 countries met caresabouttheenvironment. The in Basel to negotiate a treaty on the in- Greens gained 19 seats in the European ternational transport and disposal of Community's governing body, for a total hazardous waste. The result was a com- of 39 of thi 5I8-seat assembly. Although promise between industrial countries, still small compared with the Socialist which wanted to retain the right to ex- Party, which led the multiparty :embly port toxic mat'As under controlled with 180 seats, they became nonetheless conditions, andme developing coun- a force to be reckoned with. The results tries that wanted to ban international in local terms were even more impres- movements of such materials altogether. sive. In France's elections for the Euro- Following by 18 months the adoption of pean Parliament, the Greens won 11 the Montreal Protocol to reduce CFC percent of the vote, up from 3 percent in use, this treaty also underlined the grow- the 1984 elections. And in the United ing importance of environmental issues Kingdom, the Green share of the vote in international affairs.'" increased from less than 1percent in The Basel treaty was signed on the 1984 to 15 percent.'" spot by 34 countries, and 71 more na- In national parliaments, the Greens tions tentatively agreed to it, ext_eeding are also now represented. For example, by a wide margin the 20 required for the they hold 20 seats of a 349-seat total in accord to take effect. Mostafa Tolba, Ex- the Swedish Riksdag and 13 of 630 seats ecutive Director of the U.N. Environ- in the Italian House of Deputies. In the ment Programme, recognized that the Australian state of Tasmania, Greens treaty was a step in the right direction, hold the balance of power, with 5 out of albeit a small one, when he said, "Our 35 seats in the parliament. They cap- agreement has not halted the commerce tured 1,800 city council seats in France in poison, but it has signaled the interna- last year, establishing a foothold in local tioaal resolve to eliminate the menace governments there as well. In West Ger- that hazardous wastes pose to the wel- many, where they have been represented fare of our shared environment and to for many years, gains in 1989 were less the health of the world's peoples."44 impressive, partly because the federal The single event of 1989 that best government has Aready adopted many symbolized the new age of env ironmen- of the Greens' issues, such as disarma- tal diplomacy was the agenda at the ment."7 Group of Seven's annual summit meet- Similar opportunities to deal with ing hosted by President Mitterand in global issues dev eloped in other key Paris during July. These meetings were areas. In Poland, environmental issues initiated in 1976 as an economic summit figured prominently in the Round Table when the world was in a turmoil follow- discussionbetweentheCommunist ing the doubling of ,, iain prices and the Party and Solidarity that paved the way fourfold rise in oil prices; by 1989, much forthepower-sharing arrangement. of the meeting was devoted to environ- Elections to the Supreme Soviet and the mental issues. Discussions on climate Congress of People's Deputies also rec- The Illusion of Progress ( -5) ognized the need to broaden the base of The Australian plan is much lesscom- participation if the Soviet Union'seco- prehensive than the other two. The nomic and environmental issueswere to major specific action it calls for is the be resolved. And the success of Japan's planting of 1billion trees during the Socialist Party in wresting control of the nineties. If successful, this would replace Upper House from the long-entrenched roughly half the tree cover removed Liberal Democratic Party reflecteda since European settlement begantwo growing concern in the electorateover centuries ago. Recognizing that Aus- both social and environmental issues.48 u-alia has lost 18 species of mammals and ThreegovernmentstheNether- 100 of flowering plants since European lands,Norway,andAustraliaan- settlement, the plan also launchedan en- nounced long-term environmental plans dangered species program; this is de- in 1989. In varying degrees, ,?.achrecog- signed to save the 40 species ofmam- nized both domestic and global environ- mals at risk of extinction and the 3,300 mental issues. rare or endangered plants. Although the The Dutch National Environmental plan recognizes the near-desperate need Policy Plan developed by the federal to conserve Australia's topsoil,itin- government was presented to the Parlia- cludes no detailed program for doingso. ment for debate following the Septem- Likewise, it talks about the need tore- ber 1989 election. Given the combina- duce CO2 emissions, but has no specific tion of high population density and steps to lower fossil fuel use." uncontrolled use of automobiles, pollution problems in this small nationare severe. The government proposes to The Australian plan calls for the adopt various incentives, disincentives, planting of 1 billion trees during and regulations to encouragegreater the nineties. use of bicycles for trips of 5-10 kilometers. For longer trips, it will encourage people to use trains, not cars or planes. It plans to install emission controls in A number of national governmentsre- power plants to reduce sulfur dioxide spondedtospecificenvironmental and nitrogen oxide discharges sharply. threats in 1989. Thailand, for exaniple, The plan also calls for building 2,500 concerned about increasingly destruc- tivefloods and landslides associated megawatts of cogeneration capacity this decade to increase energy efficiency. with deforestation, announceda ban on logging. Brazil, responding in partto in- The goal is to halt the growth in CO2 ternational criticism of the burning of emissions by the end of the nineties.49 the Amazon rain forest, withdrew tax in- The Norwegian plan, which like the centives from ranchers doing much of Dutch one is designed as a nationalre- the burning.52 sponse to the report of the World Com- Many local governments throughout mission on Environment and Develop- the world have taken their own specific ment, also sets the goal of stabilizing steps on particular environmental is- carbon dioxide emissions by theyear sues, without waiting for a national strat- 2000 at the latest. Combined with efforts egy to materialiie. In the United States, to reduce CFCs and nitrous oxide, this is for instance, some states andnumerous intended to reduce total greenhousegas municipal governments have adopted emissions by Norway from the end of the mandatory recycling laws. Vermont has decade on.59 banned several major applications of 30 (16) State of the World 1990 CFCs, including their use in car aii con- of resources in response to these two ditioners by 1993. Even more ambitious, threats is aot atypica1,88 Gove: nor Madeleine Kunin is develop- All in all, 1989 was a year of much ing a state-level program to combat glo- activity, si year of many conferences and bal warming.53 declarazions, but with little concrete ac- Grassroots groups are also joining the tion. Few majer new laws were passed battle. Their efforts range from those or or new programs adopted. Some prog- the rubber tappers in the Amazon to ress was made on reducing the threat to protect the rain forest to those of Sovie: the ozone layer: as noted earlier, 66 groups organizing to block construction countries have signed or agreed to sign of nuclear plants in their communities. the Montreal Protocol. A few countries, No one knows how many grassroots en- such as Sweden, have decided to phase vironmental groups now exist, but it out CFC use entirely. So, too, have must surely be in the tens of thousands. some of the major manufacturers, such Issues they commonly organize around as U.S.-based Du Pont and Allied Che- : -dude the cleanup of toxic waste cites, mical.57 rt.,cling, and the protection of forests. With the major threats to food secu- Inc -asingly, people are realizing that rity, such as population growth, climate protk ling the environment requires or- change, and soil erosion, little or no ganizing at the local leve1.54 progress was made last year. The annual Public opinion polls show rising con- addition to world population, which cern with environmental degradation reached a record high in 1989 of 88 mil- throughout the world. A U.N.-commis- lion people, is likely to average 96 mil- sioned poll conducted in 14 disparate lion during the nineties. As noted ear- countriesrich and poor,East and lier, the buildup of carbon dioxide, the West, North and Southfound "in principal heat-trapping gas in the atmo- every major area of the world nothing sphere, is accelerating; not a single na- less than alarm about the state of the tional government has adopted a plan to environment."55 reduce CO2 emissions. And as far as soil Is the recent political aw3kening too goes, only the United States, which has little and too late? Overall, the effort to reduced losses by one fifth since 1985, protect the earth's life-support systems has succeeded in slowing the depletion is lagging badly. Despite growing public of this essential resource.58 concern, government expenditures to This past year brought the promise of defend against miiitary threats still dwarf change, but little real change. Proclama- those to protect us from environmental tions and statements of concern were ones. For example, the United States many, but actual steps to restore the plans to spend $303 billion in 1990 to planet's health were few. If the world protect the country from military threats does not seize the opportunitieF offered but only $14 billion to protect it from by the promise of change, the continuiPg environmental threats, a ratio of 22 to I. environmental degradation of the planet Unfortunately, this national distribution will eventually lead to economic decline.

31 2 Slowing GlobalWarming Christopher Flavin

Global warming promises to beone of cent higher than preindustrial levels, m- the central environmental issues of the um's oxide 19 percent, and methane nineties. After a decade of scientificcon- 100 percent. Chlorofluorocarbons cern but popular neglect, the eighties (CFCs), a class of synthetic chemicals ended with a growing political as wellas not normally found in the atmosphere, scientific consensus that the worldcan have added further to this blanket of no longer afford to procrastinate about gases that allow sunlight in but trap the this issue. Plans call for the drafting of an resulting heat.2 international climate treaty in 1990, and Global average temperatures are now for its formal adoption at a global envi- about 0.6 degrees Celsius warmer than ronmental summit in 1992.1 they were 100 years ago. No conclusive This action can hardly come toosoon. proof links this recent heating to the Changes to the earth's atmosphere are greenhouse effect, but circumstantial ev- by nature global andfor all practical idence has convinced many scientists purposesirreversible, not only in our that this is the cause. Of more concern, lifetimes but in those of our children and however, is the much faster warming grandchildren as well. Lending urgency that is predicted by a half-dozencom- to the problem is the fact that the chemi- puter modelsreaching an increase of cal composition of the earth's atmo- 2.5-5.5 degrees Celsius (4.5-9.9 de- sphere is already quite different than it grees Fahrenheit) late in the next cen- was just a century and a half ago. We tury. The difference between the warm- have unknowingly committed ourselves ing of the past century and that expected to more climate change than many socie- in the decades ahead is like that between ties will be able to cope with. a mild day in April and a late-summer Nitrogen and oxygen are still the main scorcher.3 constituents of the atmosphere, butsev- Although climate change is a young eral more complex gases are building science, many aspects of which are un- steadily: carbon dioxide (CO2) is 25per- certain, this is no excuse for delay. Socie-

An expanded version of this chapter appearedas ties invest in many programs, suchas Worldwatch Paper 91, Slowing Global Warming. A defense, to protect against an uncertain it'orldunde Strategy. but potentially disastrous threat. Simi-

32 (18) Stale of the World 1990 lady, in% estingin strategies to slow glob- to go from 2 billion to 3 billion tons, but al warming is a sort of insurance policy just six more y ears to get up to 4 billion. againstcatastrophesthathavefar This trend has of course been fueled by greater odds of occurring than most other exponential growth i atesnamely events for which we buy insurance. And of population and economic output, many of these programs are economical which translated into e% er-greater use of investments in their own right, cutting fossil fuels. Increases in oil use have energy bills and air pollution as well as been particularly rapid, but during the helping to restore the carbon balance. eighties the use of coal and natural gas Coping effectively with global warm- has also swelled.5 ing will force societies to move rapidly The past four decades of growth can into uncharted terrain, reversing power- be broken into three distinct periods. ful trends that have dominated the in- (Sec Figure 2-1.) From 1950 to 1973, dustrial age. This challenge cannot be the annual increase in carbon emissions met without a strong commitment on the was a remarkably steady 4.5 percent; part of both individual consumers and from 1973 to 1983, emissions gyrated governments. In terms of the earth's car- wildly but on average increased at a bon balance, the unprecedented policy yearly rate ofjust 1.0 percent; since then, changes that have now become urgent more rapid growth has resumed, at an include a new commitment to greater average rate of 2.8 percent a year. In energy efficiency and renewable energy 1988, carbon emissions went up 3.7 per- sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a cent, the largest annual increase in al- reversal of deforestat;onintropical most a decade.6 countries, and the rapid elimination of If expansion had continued at the pre- CFCs. 1973 rate, annual emissions today would be almost 3 billion tons higher. Of course, the slowdown was not the result of actions to protect the atmosphere. It stemmed from the effects of the two oil crises, energy policy changes in some THE GLOBAL CARBON countries, and global economic prob. BUDGET Billion The element carbon has become one of Tons the largest waste products of modern in- 6 Sources. Oak Ridge dustrial civilization. During 1988, some National Laboratory 5 Warldwatch 5.66 billion tons were produced by the Developing combustion of fossil fuelsmore than a Countries ton for each human being. Another 1-2 World Centrally billion tons were released by the felling Planned and burning of forests, mainly in tropical Countries areas. Each ton of carbon emitted into the air results in 3.7 tons of carbon diox- industrial Market ide, the seemingly innocuous gas that is Countries now one of the principal threats to humanity's future.4 1 Global carbon emissions from fossil 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 fuel use have grown rapidly during the Figure 24. Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels, postwar period: it took 10 years for them 19$0-88

3 3 I Slowing Global Warming (19) lems that have hit developingcountries ciency would have been even greaterex- particularly severely.7 cept that the efficiency revolution largely More than one third of the drop in the bypassed other parts of the world. Rising carbon emissions growth rate since 1973 use of renewable energy and nuclear -representing 1,100 million tons-can power played a significant but smaller be traced to the decliningenergy inten- role since 1973, offsetting about 500 sity of many national economies, al- million tons of annual emissions.8 though a large disparity inper capita car- In Eastern Europe and the Soviet bon emissions persists. (See Table 2-1.) Union, where most industries andin- The impact of improvedenergy efli- dividuals are shielded from market in- Table 2-1. Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels, SelectedCountries, 1960 and 1987 Carbon Per Carbon Per Carbon Dollar GNP Capita Country 1960 1987 1960 1987 1960 1987 (million tons) (grams) (tons) United States 791 1.224 420 276 4.38 5.03 Canada 52 110 373 247 2.89 4.24 Australia 24 65 334 320 2.33 4.00 Soviet Union 396 1,035 416 436 1.85 3.68 SaudiArabia 1 45 41 565 0.18 3.60 Poland 55 128 470 492 1.86 3.38 West Germany 149 182 410 223 2.68 2.98 United Kingdom 161 156 430 224 3 05 2.73 Japan 64 251 219 156 0.69 2.12 Italy 30 102 118 147 0.60 1.78 France 75 95 290 133 1.64 1.70 South Korea 3 44 274 374 0.14 1.14 Mexico 15 80 446 609 0.39 0.96 China 215 591 n.a. 2,024 0.33 0.56 Egypt 4 21 688 801 0.17 0.41

Brazil 13 53 228 170 0.17 0.38 India 33 151 388 655 0.08 0.19 Indonesia 6 28 337 403 0 06 0.16 Nigeria I 9 78 '359 0.02 0.09 Zaire 1 1 n.a. 183 0.04 0.03 World 2,547 5,599 411 327 0.82 1.08 souRcE: Wm Idwatch Institute, based on Gregg Marland et al..Esamates ofCOEmisswns from Fassii Fuel Burning and Cement Marnifacturing, Based on the I'mted Nations EnergyStatatics and the? S. Bureau of A' Cement ManufactunngData (Oak Ridge, Tenn., Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), 1989); Gr .gg Marland. ORM,. private communication, July 6, 1989, Economic ResearchService,World Populatwn by Country and Region, 1950-86, and Projections to 2050(Washington, D.C.. U.S Department of Agriculture, 1988); U.S Cential Intaigence Agency,Handbook of Economy. Stattstws, 1988(Washington, D.C.. 1988), World Bank, World Development Report 1989(New York: Ov.ford University Press, 1989). (20) State of the World 1990 centives, energy intensities havere- plants have become unaffordable. As a mained essentially unchanged, and ef- result, the world's carbon emissions are ficiency in most sectors is only about half only slightly more evenly distributed that in Western Europe. Thus although today than they were in the sixties. If and Soviet per capita economic output (mea- when developing countries overcome sured in purchasing power) is only two their economic problems, however, the thirdsthat of Western Europe, per potential for growth in fossil fuel use is capita carbon emisions are almost twice enormous." as high. Planned economic restructuring Many developing countries are adding may improve energy efficiency and thus far more carbon tothe atmosphere reduce carbon emissions, but a Soviet through deforestation than through fos- consumer society with automobiles and sil fuel combustion. Brazil, for example, larger houses could well push carbon contributes some 336 million tons of emissions above their current leve1.9 carbon each year through deforestation, over six times as much as through burning fossil fuels. (See Table2-2.)Com- The wealthy, energy-intensive bining these two sources makes Brazil quarter of the world's population the fourth largest carbon emitter in the world. Deforestation also pushes In- has an obvious responsibility to donesia and Colombia into the top 10 lead in the search for solutions. global emitters. Although considerable uncertainty remains about the precise rate of deforest- The Third World currently burns fos- ation, strong circumstantial evidence in- sil fuels at far lower rates than in the dicates itis accelerating.Tropical industrial world. With many people con- countries report ever more rapid losses tinuing to live in poverty in the country- of forests, and satellite reconnaissance side, fossil fuels are often too expensive confirms this. As with fossil fuel use, this or simply unavailable. In many of these suggests a challenge ahead. Itis one countries, a sizable portion of energy thing to accomplish a goal from a stand- needs is met through the combustion of ing start.Itis quite another to turn wood, straw, and other biomass fuels, aroundanongoingandpowerful which despite their importance are not trend." generally counted in international en- The U.S. Environmental Protection ergy statistics. Yet burning these also Agency has estimated that to stabilize at- emits carbon, and when they are not re- mospheric concentrations of CO2 at the placed by new trees or other plants, the current level, carbon emissions must be atmosphere receives an ac:ditional bur- cut by50-80percent, taking them back den." to the level of the fifties. Scientists and During the past two decades, Third policy makers meeting in Toronto in World cities have begun to fill with au- June1988offered a short-term goal: cut- tomobiles, oil-burning factories, and air- ting them by20percent by 2005)3 conditioned buildings. Rapidly expand- Even a 20-percent cut in carbon emis- ing economies, such as South Korea's, sions would mark a dramatic shift in di- have increased their use of fossil fuels rection and require wholesale changes in commensurately. This slowed somewhat energy policy and land use planning during the eighties, under the crush of around the world. Sudi goals, though debt burdens. For many nations, im- feasible, will force policymakers to con- ported oil and capital-intensive power sider familiar issues in a dramatic ally

3 5 Slowing Global Warming (21) Table 2-2. Estimated Carbon Emissions fromDeforestation and Fossil Fuels in Selected Tropical Countries Country Deforestation' Fossil Fuels2 Total (million tons) Brazil 336 53 389 Indonesia 192 28 220 Colombia 123 14 137 Thailand 95 16 1 l I Cête d'Iyoire 101 102 Laos 85 < I 85 Nigeria 60 9 69 Philippines 57 10 67 Malaysia 50 11 61 Burma 51 2 53 Others3 509 181 690

Total 1,659 325 1,984 11980.21987 365 countries. SOURCE SR A Houghton et al, "Thc Flux of Carbon from Teiresuial Ecosystems to the Atmosphere in 1080 Due to Changes in Land Uses. Geographic Distributionof tue Global Flux," Tellus, FebruaryApril 1987: Gregg Marland, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.priyate conunumeation, July 6, 1989. different context. In the past, interna- emissions per year during the next few tional emissions of carbonwere left to decades, would result in a concentration the marketplace. But markets bynature of CO2 that is perhaps three times the ignore environmental costs. Continuing preindustrial levelwell aboveeven, the with business as usual will result ina doomsday scenarios developed by cli- rapid undermining of the habitability of mate modelers. At the recen' annual the planet during the next 20-30years. growth rate of about 3 percent, carbon Any realistic strategy must start with emissions in the year 2010 would reach the fact that one fourth of the world's nearly twice the current level, and by population accounts for nearly 70per- 2025 would be three times wherewe are cent of the fossil-fuel-based carbon today.15 emissions. This wealthy, energy-intcn- A frighteningly large gap looms be- sive quarter has an obvious responsibil- tween projected growth rates in carbon ity to lead in the search for solutions. But emissions and the level that atmospheric limiting carbon emissions in developing scientists believe is necessary to main- countries remains anextraordinarily tain a climate that can meet human difficult issue. It is a simple fact ofatmo- needs. World leaders meetingat the spheric science that the planet willnever Hague environmental summit in March be able to support a population of 8 bil- 1989 and the Paris economic summit in lion people generating carbon emissions July 1989 agreed on a need to cut carbon at the rate, say, of Western Europe emissions. But no one has begunto today." wrestle with the crucial equity issues this The growth that would imply, to just raises.16 more than 16 billion tons of carbon How much of a burden should the (22) Slale of the World 1990 United States, as a wealthy and energy - traction and use of fossil fuels ( ontribute intensive country, have to bear? And a significant share of the emissions of wilat about Japan, which is frugal in its two other greenhouse gasesmethane consumption of fossil fuels but is one of and nitrous oxide.'8 the few nations with capital surpluses? Although it is important that the tran- Should the use of fossil fuels be con- sition away from fossil fuels begin in the strainedindeveloping countriesor near future, the p. ocess will extend over should most of their effort be devoted to a period of decades. Many new technolo- reversing deforestation? .And what of the gies will have to be developed and, even SON iet Union, which is embarking on an then, installing replacement sources will economic program that could boost en- take time. ergy consumption even higher than it al- Carbon emissions among thcfessil ready is? fuels vary widely. Oil contains about 44 A growing world population and the percent more carbon per unit of energy associated demand for energy, land. and than natural gas does, while coal con- other resources will also have an impact tains 75 percent more. Some analysts on carbon emissions. In countries such have argued that switching to natural gas as Kenya and the Philippines, a3- should be a major element of a global percent ankual growth rate of emissions warming strategy. But in many nations, is just enough to stay even with popula- including the United States, gas reserves tion, implying static per capita carbon are tou limited to make this possible. emissions. Successfulefforts to slow And although natural gas is plentiful population increases would allow such globally, it may have limited greenhouse nations to cut emissions more easily. In- benefits. A study by Dean Abrahamson deed, unless Third World population of the University of Minnesota found growth does slow drastically, it is hard to that, compared with oil heating, the imagine any global program of carbon methane leaking from natural gas distri- reductions that is both sufficient and eq- bution systems has such a powerful greenhouse effect that it offsets any CO2 uitable." reduction benefits of switching to gas heating.18 Another possibility is to "scrub" the carbon either before or during combustion, an idea with more hypothetical ALTERNATIVES TO FOS SIL than practical appeal. While up to 90 FUELS percent of the carbon could in theory be removed, either by chemically treating Fossil fuels today provide 78 percent of the fuel before combustion or by intro- our energy (oil provides 33 percent; ducing chemical reagents into the flue coal, 27 percent; and natural gas, 18). gas, these are unproven technologies. But we have always known that the world Further, carbon makes up 73 percent of must stop using them eventually since the weight of the average kind of coal, nonrenewable resources are by defini- and huge quantities of it would have to tion limited and will one day run out. be extracted and disposed of in the deep Now the specter of global warming re- oceans, something that would both be quires us to phase fossil fuels out during costly and require the construction of the early part of the twenty-first century, long pipelines to the sea." long before reserves are depleted. Not Su, h a program could nearly double only do they contain carbon, but the ex- the cost of coal-fired power generation,

37 Slowing Global Warming (23) according to engineering studies. The the current average of 20, emissions equipment costs alone for a single 500- would decline slightly. And if, in addi- megawatt coal-fired power plant are es- tion, improved mass transit, greateruse timated at between $500 million and of bicycles for short trips (see Chapter $1.5 billion. While carbon scrubbing 7), and a carbon tax could keep the would be an enormous taskeven in large world fleet to 500 million cars, carbon power plants, it would be a practical im- emissions from autos would fall to half possibility for the many small, decentral- what they are today." ized consumers of fossil fuels suchas Overall, energy efficiency improve- home furnaces or automobiles. For the ments worldwide between 1990 and time being, at least, policymakers should 2010 could make a 3-billion-ton differ- assume that carbon scrubbing is not an ence in the amount of carbon being re- economical strategy. 21 leased to the atmosphere each year. This Using energy more efficiently, on the would imply an annual rate ofenergy other hand, has the combined advantage efficiency improvement of 3 percent, of low cost and enormous abundance. keeping carbon emissions from fossil Although improved efficiency cannotre- fuels to 6 billion tons in 2010, rather place fossil fuels entirely, neither canany than the 9 billion that would result if alternative likely to be available in the efficiency improved at only 1 percenta next few decades. Energy efficiency has year. No other approach offers as large the immediate potential to cut fossil fuel an opportunity for limiting emissions in use at least 3 percent annually in indus- the next two decades.23 trial countries, reducing CO2 emissions The other way to reduce emissions is commensurately. And in developingna- by developing non-carbon-based energy tions, efficiency can be used to limit fos- sources. Both nuclear power and renew- sil fuel growth while economic develop- able energy sources have been used to ment continues.22 displace fossil fuels in the recent past: Worldwide,lightingaccountsfor increased use of nuclear power during about 17 percent of electricity use,or the past 15 years is now displacing 298 250 million tons of annual carbon emis- million tons of carbon emissionsannu- sions. These emissions continue to grow ally-5 percent of the annual total rapidly, as electric lighting spreads in de- while increased use of renewables dis- veloping countries. If the worldwere to places 192 million tons. Each could be double the efficiency of these systems by employed more extensively in the fu- the year 2010, it could cut the projected ture.26 450 million tons of carbon emissions Nuclear power, however, is less ready from lighting in half. For household use, for massive deployment today than it compact 18-watt fluorescent bulbs al- was a decade ago. The last 10 years have ready exist that provide the same illumi- been marked by serious accidentsat nation as 75-watt incandescent ones.23 Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, enor- Energy efficiency's potential is also ev- mous cost escalations, the failure to de- ident in transportation. Eachyear, the velop long-term disposal sites fornu- world's nearly 400 millioncars spew clear waste, and a precipitous decline in about 550 million tons of carbon into the public acceptance. Today, just 94nu- atmosphere, 10 percent of the total from clear plantsare under construction fossil fuels. Projections show these emis- worldwide, the smallest number in 15 sions increasing 75 percent, along with years. If all these are completed, they vehicle numbers, by 2010. But if these would displace an additional 110 million cars got 50 miles to the gallon instead of tons of carbon annually. Indeed, be- (24) State of the World 1990 tween 1995 and 2005, nuclear energy stantially adyancedby the new de- generation may actually decline as a signs."22 growing number of plants reach the end EN en if safety problems could be over- of their opefable lives.27 come, it would be the end of the decade Some nuclear advocates argue that before a prototype reactor could be this history of mistakes provides justifi- completed and tested, meaning that it cation for an attempted reinvention of ould be close to the year 2010 before nuclear powerwith global warmini, as a significant number of new plants come a key rationale. When he was U.K. Envi- on-line. And fo nuclear power to offset ronment Secretary, Nicholas Ridley said even 5 percent of global carbon emis- in late 1988, "If we want to arrest the sions would require that worldwide nu- greenhouse effect we should concen- clear capacity be nearly double today's trate on a massive increase in nuclear level. Nuclear power is simply not a me- generating capacity." Although such a dium-term option for slowing global stance might be supportable if nuclear warming.Policyrnakersmust decide power's pi oblerns were the result of a whether the hundreds of billions of dol- few engineering mistakes, mismanage- lars needed to achieve a new generation ment, or a lack of government commit- of reactors are worth the uncertain re- ment, this is not the case. The problems turnsparticularly considering other, more attractive alternatives." stern from basic unresolved technologi- Leading that list of alternatives are cal issues such as vulnerability to acci- several renewable energy sources poised dents and reliance on highly dangerous to develop rapidly. Wind, geothermal, materials.28 solar thermal, photovoltaic, and various biomass technologies are among the energy sources with potential to move Nuclear power is simply not a strongly into the market during the nine- medium-term option for slowing ties. And renewable energy technologies global warming. as a group have a big advantage over nuclear power as a means of reducing CO2 emissions: they can be used not only to produce electricity but also to As far as new plant designs are con- displace many other uses of fossil fuels, cerned, scientists have yet to settle even such as running automobiles. on which to pursue. While the proposed Wind power is one renewable energy redesigns have promising features such source that has come of age during the as modularity and "passive" safety sys- eighties. Today, more than 20,000 elec- tems, experts question whether they can tricity-producing wind machines are in ever be as economical or even as safe as use worldwide, with a capacity of about their proponents hope. Indeed, the en- 1,600 megawatts. Most of these are in tire concept of inherent safety may be an California and Denmark, though wind engineering mirage. A study by the U.K. farms have also begim to appear in Atomic Energy Authority concludes that India, West Germany, and other nations. the proposed designs may be just as vul- Wind power is now commercially com- nerable to structural failures as conven- petitive, with generating costs of 6-8o tional plants are. Nucleomcs Week states per kilowatt-hour. Analyst Robert Ly- that "experts are flatly unconvinced that nette has estimated that with increased safety has been achievedor even sub- government support, between 6,100 and Slowing Globalll'armnig (25) 31,000 megawatts of additional windca- ity using semiconductor materials, is the pacity could be installed in thewestern renewable energy technology likelyto United States by the end of this decade. advance most rapidly in theyears ahead. Northern Europe, North Africa, India, Capable of being mountedon rooftops, and the Soviet Union have similarpoten- or installed in massive quantities as des- tial. By 2030, wind power could provide ert power plants,solarcellscould more than 10 percent of the world's become as ubiquitous as petroleum. An- electric:ty.3 i nual installations have grown from just 1 Geothermal power can be another megawatt in 1978 to 35 megawatts in substantial component ofan energy sys- 1988. Third World use of solar cells is tem run on renewables. The world now expandingparticularlyrapidly,with has over 5,000 megawatts of installed India reporting that 6,000 villagesys- geothermal capacity, at costs of 4-80per tems have been installed. In many re- kilowatt-hour. Rapid growth continues, mote areas, photovoltaics is a practical with the main focus on developing dif- alternative to expansion of the electricity ficult-to-tap resources suchas the pres- gridproviding powersooner, more surized hot waterreserves found in reliably, and at lower cost.34 abundance in many regions. In the Scientists at the U.S. Solar Energy Re- United States, installed geothermalca- search Institute (SERI) estimate that pacity by the end of this decade could new technologies may yield photovoltaic range from 4,200 megawatts (double the systems by the late nineties that are com- currentlevel)to18,700 megawatts. petitive with conventionalpower pro- Other areas likely to rely heavilyon this duced during peak periods. This could renewable energy source include Cen- result in 1,000 megawatts of capacity in tral America, New Zealand, the Philip- the United States alone by the end of this pines, and the Soviet Union.32 decade, with more rapid growth there- Solar thermal power is themost recent after. SERI further estimates that photo- renewable to break into the commercial voltaics are capable of supplyingover market. Since 1984, some 194mega- halt of U.S.electricity four to watts' worth of generating capacity five has decades from now; many nationsare been installed in southern California in likely to find similar potentia1.36 the form of mirrored troughs that focus Biomass sources such as wood, agri- sunlight onto oil-filled tubes. Thesecon- cultural wastes, and garbage also have vey heat to a turbine and generator that great potential to fuel a sustainableen- produce power. Solar thermalsystems ergy system. Already, biomass supplies convert up to 22 percent of the sunlight about 12 percent of worldenergy, a fig- that hits them into electricity,at a cost ure that reaches as high as 50 percent or that will soon reach 80 per kilowatt- more in some developing countries. hour. Natural gas servesas a backup Much of this use is not sustainable, how- source to run the turbines when thesun ever, and could even exacerbate global is not shining, which allows thesystem to warming. In the Brazilian Amazon, for provide reliable power at times of peak example, smelters fueled by wood from demand. Luz International, thecom- virgin forests that are not beingre- pany that builds the systems, is explor- planted emit more carbon dioxidethan ing even larger projects in Nevada and if they were fueled by coal. Yet withcare- Brazi1.33 ful replanting, management, and effi- Solar photovoltaics, whichconverts cient conversion, biomass fuel could the sun's radiation directly into electric- play an important role.36

40 (26) State of the World 1990 Wood- and waste-fired power plants tant that they seize alternatives that are are now being built in many nations at both practical and economical. The rela- costs competitive with fossil fuel plants. eie cost of avoiding carbon emissions is They produce minimal air pollution and, . .._ centralconsideration for policymak- as long as they consume waste materials ers to keep in mind. In many nations. or wood from forests that are being re- coal-fired electricity is still the mainstay planted, they do not contribute to CO2 of the power systen., so it makes sense to buildup. Power plants that burn meth- evaluate the potential of various alterna- ane building up in landfills are particu- tives to displace the carbon emitted by larly effective at slowing global warming, this form of energy. Since the fuel and since they consume a gas with 25 times operating cost3 of a coal-fired power the g. .enhouse strength of carbon diox- plant are about 20 per kilowatt-hour, ide. A California study found that a kilo- and environmental pollution costs about watt-hour of electricity produced this 1.50 per kilowatt-hour, anything above way removes methane equivalent to the 3.50 can be attributed to "carbon avoid- carbon released by 10 kilowatt-hours ance."39 generated by a coal-fired plant." At the high end of the spectrum are Among the transport fuels that yield nuclear power and photovoltaics, both substantially lower carbon emissions are expensive means of reducing carbon alcohol fuels from biomass. Brazil has emissions. (See Table 2-3.) Opinion is the world's largest alcohol fuels pro- divided about the potential to reduce gram, with about 72 million barrels of nuclear costs, but the expense of solar ethanol derived from sugarcane annu- cellsis almost certain to fall precipi ally. In 1988, this provided 62 percent of tously. While newer, more efficient fossil the country's automotive fuel. Although fuel technologies such as combined- this huge program has helped reduce cycle coal plants or steam injected gas Brazil's dependence on imported oil, it turbines are relatively inexpensive, they has done so at the price of enormous only partially reduce carbon emissions, governmentsubsidies.TheUnited leaving the cost of carbon avoidance States is the second largest producer of high. Alcohol fuels produced from corn alcohol fuels-20 million barrels per ace also uneconornical$350 per ton of year, deried mainly from corn. But this carbon saved. Costs have_ to be cut by at program is also subsidized and is based least a third to make this a practical on a crop grown on prime land. Because means of reducing carbon emissions.4° f.:ssii :uels are used in the production, Significantly more economical are a U.S. ethanol yields only a 63-percent re- number of the emerging renewable op- duction In carbon emissions on an en- tions, including wind, wood, geother- ergy-unit basts.38 mal, and solar thermal, with carbon To mal-2 biomass fuels a more impor- avoidance costs as low as $95 per ton. tant energy supply, the world will have Moreover, all these costs are falling. The to turn to crops grown on marginal cheapest way to reduce carbon emis- lands, to conversion of waste materials, sions, however, is energy efficiency and to the development of intg ated enormously abundant and costing $16 cropping systems that allow the same or less per ton of avoided carbon. In- land to produce as much food as at pre- deed, many efficiency investme nts are sent, and to produce fuel as well. less expensive than operating existing As societies adopt the slowing of cli- coal-fired power plants, meaning that mate chartge as a guiding principle in the cost of avoided carbon emissions is selecting energy strategi '.s, it is impor- zero.4I

41 Slowing Global Wanmng (27) Table 2-3. Costs of Avoiding Carbon EmissionsAssociated with Alternatives to Fossil Fuels, 1989

Estimated Carbon Generating Carbon Pollution Avoidance Fossil Fuel Alterna. ,- ost i Reduction Cost Cost2 (cents/kwh) (percent) (cents/kwh) (dollars/ton) Improving Energy Efficiency 2.0-4.0 100 0.0 <0-163 Wind Power 6.4 100 0.0 95 Geothermal Energy 5.8 99 1.0 110 Wood Power 6.3 100 1.0 125

Steam-injected Gas Turbine 4.8-6.3 61 0.5 97-178 Solar Thermal (with gas) 7.9 84 0.2 180 Nuclear Power 12.5 86 5.0 535 Photovoltaics 28.4 100 0.0 819 Combined-cycle Coal 5.4 10 1.0 954 ILevelized cost over the life of the plant,assuming current construction costs, and gas prices. a range of natural 2Compared with existing coal-firedpower plant 3Some energy efficiencyimprovements cost less than operating a coat plant, so avoiding carbonemissions is actually free SOURCE. Worlduatch Instittur estimates.

SUPPORT PIP THE And the 1989 proposal by the Bush administration to develop methanol fuel TRANSITION could commit the U.S. automobile fieet Accelerating the development ofenergy to a highly carbon-intensive fuel source efficiency and renewableenergy sourccs well into the next century.43 will require a comprehensive package of There is a pressing needto end such policiessome local, some national, and counterproductive programs andto de- still others at the international level. velop energy policies that will address Cost-effective strategies have already varirus energy and environmental issues been identified in some countries: in in a complementary way. One exampleis Canada, a major government-supported the program developed by the South report found that although a 20-percent Coast Air Quality Management District to clean up southern California's air reduction in carbon emissions couldcost over the government $108 billion, it would the next 15 years, in part by phasingout save the nation $192 billion.42 ga-oline and revamping the region's The first step is to reverse the policies transportation system. (See Chapter 6.) Although global warming playedno role that bias many countries toward increas- in the formulation of the plan, which ing reliance on fossil fuels. Tax codes, is research and development aimed at meeting air pollution goals, programs, officials later calculated thata side bene- and other measures often frustrate ef- fit would be a 20-percent reduction in forts to stabilize the climate. In the regional carbon emissions.44 United States, for example, $2.3 billion A key priority is levyinga "carbon tax" is slated to go into "clean coal" research on fossil fuels. Such a tax would allow during the next fivc yearsaprogram market economies to consider the global that would move the country toward environmental damage of fossilfuel even higher levels of carbon emissions. combustion.It would encourage in-

VP (28) State of the World 1990 dividuals and companies to ch,,e fuels the cost of ay. oiding climate change and based in part on their relative contribu- should be incorporated in the price of tion to global warming. Coal would be fuels. Ideally, such taxes will be agreed taxed the highest, oil would be next, and on internationally, so that additional ex- natural gas would follow. Renewable en- penses do not hit different economies ergy sources that do not contribute to disproportionately.. The revenuescould the buildup of carbon dioxide would not be used in part to develop permanent be taxed at all. A carbon tax has been and stable funding for improv ing energy proposed by the U.K. environment sec- efficiencyand dev eloping renewable retary and is now under discussion inter- sources. This would, in the wol ds of nationally. In countries that do not wish WestGermany'sSocialDemocratic to raise total taxes, the carbon tax could Party, endorsing such a tax, "prov ide an be offset by reductions in other taxes.45 ecological redistribution of taxes."'" Picking the correct tax is a compli- In the United States alone, revenues cated exercise. One way of determining from such a tax would equal about $60 the appropriate levelto assess the en- billion ($240 per person); in India, they vironmental costs of using a particular would come to $7.5 billion ($9 per pel - fuel,theninternalizethosecosts son). A tax at this level would raise the through taxes. (In addition to minimiz- price of gasoline in the United States by ing global warming, the benefits of re- 170 a gallon and of electricity by 28 per- duced ailpollution that w ould come cent. It would spur a surge in efficiency from low e. ing fossil fuel consumption inv estments similar to the one of the late should also be considered in determin- seventies and early eighties. A gradually ing such a tax.) Yet no reliable estimates levied carbon tax would avoid the dislo- have been made of how much climate cations caused by oil price hikes while change will cost the international econ- encouraging the woi ld to get on a course omy, and scientists doubt whether accu- of declining carbon emissions.48 rate projections will ever be possible.46 Stepped-up research and development is also essential. Although governments have supported Aiciency and re- A "carbon tax" would encourage newable technologies for over a decade, individualsandcompaniesto their commitment has been erratic. This choose fuels based in part on their is particularly true in the United States, where R&D budgets for renewables and relativecontributiontoglobal efficiency soared in the late seventies warming. and then were cut by four fifths between 1981 and 1988. Despite these reductions, many new technologies, such as Suffice it to say that the potential cost wind turbines, highly efficient fluores- is in the hundreds of billions of dollars. cent lighting systems, and new insulat- The costs of limiting Lmissions are al- ing materials, have entered the market- most certainly lower than the possible place. The next step is to encourage future costs of warming, and so these more widespread use of these technolo- can be used as the basis for calculating gies.49 such a tax. As indicated earlier, carbon Most of the progress so far in slowing avoidance costs vary w idely, but a con- growth in fossil fuel consumption has servative estimate is that large-scale ef- been stimulated by market forces. For forts will cost on average at least $50 per energy efficiency to lealize its full poten- tort of carbon. This in effect represents tial to protect the env ironment, how-

4 3 Slowing Global Warming (29) ever, major institutional reforms will be efficient than legislated standards inen- needed. (See also Chapter 6.) Whileen- couraging change, but mandatorystan- ergy producers look to new supply op- dards do have a role to play. Theycan tions with payback periods ofup to 20 ensure that the least efficient or most years, energy consumers rarely invest in wasteful practices arc eliminated,so that efficiency measures with paybacks lon- efficiency improvement does not bypass ger than two. Legislation that encour- industries and markets where institu- ages consumers to make longer-term in- tional impediments persist. Efficiency vestmentsperhaps withthe aid of standardsfor automobiles, buildings, utilitieswould help close this gap." and appliances offer Electric utilities can help enormous energy overcome savings while cutting downon pollution. these problemssupplying highly effi- The 1986 U.S. appliance standards, for cient bulbs instead of buildingmore example, will have saved $28 billion generators, for instance, as is already worth of electricity and being done in some areas. Since the late gas and have seventies, a policy known as "least-cost kept over 340 million tons of carbonout planning" has been used by regulators of the atmosphere by the end of this and iagislators to push utilities into decade.53 adopting conservation programs. Using In the Third World, the challenge of this approach, utilities invest in improv- raising sufficient funds to invest in effi- ing customers' efficiency ciencyisparticularly severe. Already as long as deeply in debt, most developing greater efficiency costs less thannew coun- power plants. The cheapest options sell tries are chronically short of capital and first in a market, and theyare chosen first lack access to many of the highly efficient in least-cost planning." technologies developed in the eighties. Going a step further, a more competi- One answer is to redirecta portion of tive power industry would foster ihnova- the enormous flow of international lend- tion and the development of technolo- ing currently devoted to buildingpower gies that arc environmentally preferable. piants and electric lines. This would free By opening the generation marketto billions of dollars that could be irn ested competitive bidding for allnew power in improving the efficiency of industry. suppliers, policymakers can allowcogen- transportation, and buildings. eration and renewable energy projects to sell power to utilities at their "avoided cost" of new generation. Somet., gula- tors have also begun to include bids from companies that provide "saveden- OTHER GREENHOUSE ergy" that can postpone or offset the construction of nev. facilities A logical STRATEGIES next step is to incorporate globalwarm- As noted in the opening of this chapter, ing costs in the biddingprocess and two other important components of ef- modify regulations. Utilities' rates ofre- forts to slow global warmingare the return can be increased when they lower versal of deforestation, especially in the the total economic and environmental Third World, and the elimination of costs to consumers by investing in im- chlorofluorocarbons. The first of these proved efficiencya "win-win" situation relies on using forests and agricultural that would end the current bias toward lands as a carbon sink. Living plants and ever greater electricity sale.52 their soils constantly accumulate carbon; Market incentives are generallymore indeed, the approximately 120 billion

4 4 (30) State of the World 1990 tons in flux each year in the biosphere is Although such an approach cannot about 20 times that released by fossil offset all or esen most carbon emissions fuels. Net loss of forests is estimated to from power plantsin the United States have resulted in the release of at least 1 alone it would have to be duplicated billion tons of carbon annually in recent 1,200 times oserit is a comparatively years.54 inexpensive method of reducing emis- Several analysts have attempted to es- sions and slowing deforestation. The timate the carbon-fixing potential of var- Guatemala project benefits from the fact ious kinds ef forest, and to design appro- that no land need be purchased and that priate tree planting programs. InState of many of the workers will not have to be the World 1989we considered the likely paid. Another study has suggested that contribution of 130 million hectares of ee p:anting will cost $16 per ton of car- tropical forestan area twice the size of boo ay.-sided, a number that can only be France. Trees covering that much terri- bettered by the most attractive energy tory, planted around the world, could efficiency measures. In wider implemen- meet the fuelwood and timber needs of tation of such a plan, costs would likely thP Third World and restore degraded be far higher.57 lands. At the same time, they would se- Applied Energy Services is fully aware quester about 5.5 tons of carbon per that a project in a country like Guate- hectare. Such a "carbon bank" would malawith oppressive rural poverty, a absorb 660 million tons of carbon each year until the trees reach maturity in population whose numbers will nearly about three decades. This is more than double in 20 years, and serious political a third of the amount currently thought problemsmay nes er achieve its full cli- to be emitted each year by deforestation, mate stabilization benefits. The project and a little under 10 percent of total net also illustrates the difficulties of design- carbon emissions.55 ing a large-scale afforestation program. Calculations like these have spurred Finding sufficient and appropriate land, efforts to develop new multiple-use for- raising the needed financing, and mobil- estry programs, part of whose justifica- izing social institutions are three chal- tion would be to slow climate change. lenges that must be faced in devising a The most concrete project so far is one practical global plan. The rate of defor- in Guatemala established to offset the estation is accelerating, however, and 387,000 tons of carbon to be emitted without policy changes the process will annually by a planned 183-megawatt, contribute growing amounts of carbon. coal-fired power plant in Connecticut. Slowing this trend, let alone making for- The plant's builder, Applied Energy Ser- ests net absorbers of the chief green- vices, has joined with the Washington- house gas, will require the adoption of a based World Resources Institute and the long list of policy changes.58 private d?.velopment group CARE to Slowing deforestation is the first pri- create12,000 hectares of woodlots, ority, and requires that tropical coun- plant 60,000 hectaresof agroforest tries end financial incentives for land (combining trees and crops) that will be speculators and settlers to move into vir- harvested on a sustainable basis, and gin forests and for loggers to export protect additional forestland fi om fires. hardwoods. Gosernments and interna- The 10-year project is expected to cost tional aid agencies also need to work ac- $16.3 million and involve 40,000 fami- tively to support sustainable develop- lies in planting and maintaining roughly ment projects such as agrofoi esti) and 52 million trees." woodlots that allow people to make a

45 Slowing Global Warming (31) living from forests that are left standing about 5 percent, a major step. Once the rather than cutting them down.59 new trees reach maturity, in 20-30 years, Remarkably, in a 1989 policy paperon and cease to absorb carbon, they could global warming, the World Bankcon- be harvested on a sustainable basis for cluded that "the economics of vigor- use as fuel to 7,-pIace oil or coal, further ously pursuing [reforestation] are prob- lowering carbon emissions.62 ably not favorable at this time." This A number of cities have already de- statement ignores the impact of the cur- cided that the local benefits of tree plant- rent rate of deforestation and the poten- ing are so great that they will not wait for tial leverage of the international commu- national governments or the interna- nity in easing the pace of destruction. tional community to adopt new mea- Stopping deforestation within their own sures. The American Forestry Associa- borders is by far the largest contribution tion launched a program in late 1988 that many developing countries can called Global ReLeaf, which aims toen- make to global climate stabilization,as courage U.S. communities to plant 100 well as to their own economic futures.6° million trees by 1992. This projectwas Countries in temperate regions can spurred by concern over global warming also help restore the earth's carbon bal- and the desire of individuals to makea ance by planting trees. Surveys show contribution.(One hundredmillion that Europe and Japan are the only parts growing trees would sequesteran es- of the world currently increasing their timated 5 million tons of carbonannu- total forested area. Even in Canada and ally.)63 the United States, forests are shrinking, largely due to the spread of land-intensive suburban and commercial develop- Governments and international aid ment. And in both North America and the Soviet Union, the clear-cutting of agencies need to support projects virgin forests not only continues but is such as agroforestry and woodlots subsidized by governments. Relatively that allow people to make a living minor policy changes could convert from forests left standing. North American, central Asian, and Aus- tralian forests into net carbon absorbers. The prime minister of Australia has Global ReLeaf also recognizes that taken the lead in such efforts with his tree planting will improve the urban en- recent announcement of a program to vironment itself, moderating summer plant 1 billion trees by the end of this heat and improving aesthetics. The decade.° mayor of Los Angeles announced in A major step in this direction would be February 1989 thathe city hopes to to convert large areas of marginal crop plant between 2 inillion and 5 million and grazing lands to trees, which stabil- trees by 1994, and in September the izes soils at the same time as it increases mayor or Houston, Texas, set forth a the rate of carbon fixing. Trees planted, plan to plant !,:million trees by 2000. for example, on the 13 million hectares Other cities are expected to join in.64 of erodible cropland set aside in the The real challenge facing thesepro- United States since 1986 under the Con- grams is maint.lining the trees once they servation Reserve Program would ab- are in the ground. In the past, trees put sorb 65 million tons of carbon annually in during crash campaigns, suchas in for the first few decades. This would China, have been plagued by highwor- lower netU.S. carbon emissions b ' tality rates. This can only be prevented

Ael 4..r6 (32) State of the World 1990 by careful nurturing of the saplings. If group of countries meeting in Montreal such difficulties can be overcome, tree in 1987 agreed to freeze all production planting will make a small but important of CFCs immediately and to hal\ e out- contributiontoclimatestabilization. put by 2000. Although this agreement is Newly planted trees have an even larger rightiy considered a landmark in envi- educational and symbolic value, enlist- ronmentaldiplomacy,evidencehas ing individuals and their communities in mounted in the past two years that it is the fight to slow global warming. not sufficient.66 It is estimated that, even under the Montreal Protocol, atmospheric concen- Global Re Leaf aims to encourage trations of CFC-11 and CFC-12 will in- U.S. communities to ph,:it 100 mil- crease by 77 percent and 66 percent respectively by 2040. This could raise the lion trees by 1992. greenhouse burden on the atmosphere by almost one fifth, even if all the other greenhouse gases were stabilized. This A third essential greenhouse strat- large prospective increase is in part be- egythe elimination of chlorofluoro- cause the protocol makes exceptions for carbonswill in some ways be the easi- the countries that have lagged in CFC est element of the effort to slow climate production, such as the Soviet Union Ciange, and a critical early test of world- and developing nations. It means that wide commitment to do so. CFCs, an im- the actual emissions reductions by the portantclassof modernindustrial end of this decade will be less than 40 chemicals, were responsible for an es- percent. In addition, large quantities of timated 25 percent of the added green- CFCs already contained in refrigerators, house effect during the eighties. In the air conditioners, and foam products will United States, the leading CFC pro- gradually find their way into the atmo- ducer, these chemicals constitute 40 per- sphere in the years ahead.67 cent of the country's greenhouse emis- Immediate efforts to strengthen the sions. In Japan, CFCs account for over Montreal Protocol and accelerate the half the country's contribution. More- elimination of CFCs are priorities in the over, although growth in the use of global warming fight. Curbing CFC re- CFCs has slowed since the seventies, leases should be relatively painless be- their concentration is expanding more cause alternatives ale already available rapidly than any other greenhouse gas.65 for some of these chemicals, others are Because CFCs are also responsible for being developed rapidly, and technolo- depletion of the ozone layer in the strat- gies to keep them out of the atmosphere ospherewhich shields the earth from are well along. deadly ultraviolet radiationefforts to During the past year numerous corpo- limit their use are further along than for rationsand governmentshavean- the other greenhouse gases. Beginning nounced plans to eliminate certain uses intheseventies,the United States of the compounds. And, with the ratifi- banned the use of CFCs in aerosol cation ink not yet dry, the Montreal Pro- sprays, and several nations followed suit. tocol is already being reviewed with an International efforts to restrict C Os eye to tightening it. In May 1989, some began in the early eighties, spurred by 81 nations signed the Helsinki Declara- growing evidence of ozone depletion. tion, pledging in prinr:ple to phase out After years of negotiations, a large five CFCs implictitej in ozone depletion

41 Slowing Global Warming (33) by 2000, if additional substitute chemicals are developed. For the first time, A NATIONAL AND GLOBAL developing countries were activelyen- POLICY AGENDA gaged in the process, enticed by the agreement of industrial nations to estab- This past year has been marked bya lish a fund to assist in obtaining substi- flurry of proposals to deal with global tutes. There is no time for delay. It is warming. According to one U.S. count, unconscionable to allow CFC concentra- 130 bills were introduced in 22 state leg- tions to keep building up in the atmo- islatures during the first half of' 1989. sphere when they are so clearly impli- Major proposals are also being debated cated in two nf the world's most pressing in national parliaments. (See Table 2-4.) environmental problems.68 And in some areas, city governments

Table 2-4. Climate Policies, Enacted and Proposed, November1989

Nation or State Policy Status The Proposal to freeze CO2 Parliament debating proposals; Netherlands 2000 and increase spending on government considering four-year, efficiency emissions by 8-percent reduction in CO, emissions

Norway Plan to stabihze CO, emissions by White pper approved by 2000, then reduce emissions Parliament in June 1989

Sweden Plan to freeze CO2 emissions at Parliament approved emissions current levels; tax CO, emissions freeze, 1988; tax planned by 1991

United Considering control of methane House of Commons Energy Kingdom leakage, improved energy Committee made efficiency recommendations

United States Comprehensive legislation to cut Several bills pending in U.S. carbon emissions 20 percent Congress

California Comprehensive policy being Goernment report to be submitted developed June 1990

Oregon Law requiring 20 percent reductionEnacted July 1989 in greenhouse gases by 2005

Vermont Order to decrease greenhouse gas Proposal announced by Governor emissions, re-evaluate state energy September 1989 policy

West Germany Comprehensive policy under Parliament Commission formulating discussion proposals; report due mid-1990 souacr.: Worldwatch Institute, based on various sources.

4 8 (34 ) State of the WolId 1990 and private groups are getting into the ric. Canada, yOlich has played a leading act as well. Rarely has a ney%, policy issue role in international discussions, failed taken hold so quickly.62 to reach agreement on a 20-percent-re- In the United States, two comprehen- duction goal at an August 1989 meeting sive global warming bills were first intro- of provincial energy ministers. Some duced in Congress in late 1988. They small countries, however, have actively proposed a national goal of cutting car- supported new policy initiatives on glob- bon emissions 20 percent over the next al warming. These include nations like 10 years and Included programs to im- the Maldives and Malta that believe they plement national least-costplanning, may be big losers as climate changes.72 improve automobile fuel economy,,de- National goals to limit emissions of velop renewable energy sources, plant the four main greenhouse gasescar- trees, and assist developing countries in bon dioxide, CFCs, methane, and ni- slowing population growth and defor- trous oxideare among the most impor- estation, In the ensuing months, how- tant features of any meaningful global ever, the bilis ran into the opposition of warming strategy. But beyond establish- entrenched industries, and key elements ing goals, it is important that credible of the legislation failed to move for- policies be put in place to achieve them, ward." including giving relevant government The picture in Europe is more en- agencies responsibility to implement ap- couraging. The public is strongly con- propriate measures. cerned about climate change, and is It is encouraging that so many govern- electing politicians who are ready to act. ments have begun to mobilize to slow The Netherlands, Noma), and Sweden global warming, but an international are considering plans to freeze or cut agreement to stabilize the climate is still national CO2 emissions. In Sweden, one needed. Indeed, global warming pre- oil-fired power project has already been sents an unprecedented challenge to the put on hold pending evaluation of its globalcommunity,forclugeveryone greenhouse impact. The United King- from prime ministers to the general pub- dom and West Germany report similar lic to understand that we inhabit a single sentiments and are reviewing their en- planet and share responsibility for its ergy policies. A special West German health. National differences and old ri- parliamentary commission is likely soon valries will haw to be cast aside, so that to suggest major policy initiatives, but countries can act in concert as never already the opposition Social Demo- before. cratic Party has called for higher energy This seemed to be recognized by lead- taxes, new efficiency incentives, and a ers of the seven largest industrial de- sweeping overhaul of utility laws. An in- mocracies, meeting in Paris for their exorableenvironmentalbandwagon annual summit in July 1989: Environ- may next push the European Parliament, mental proposals occupied one third of with its dominant coalition of pro-envi- the resulting communioué. On global ronment parties, to take up related pro- warming, the leaders said "we strongly posals." advocate common efforts to limit emis- Other parts of the world are moving sions of carbon dioxide and othei green- much more slowly on a greenhouse pol- house gases, which threater .to induce icy agenda. Brazil, China, Japan, and the climate change."" Soviet Union are among theey coun- Afterthe bold rhetoric,however, tries that haN e done little bt ond sup- come complex and difficult negotiations. porting more research and str ong rheto- That process began in Noy ember 1988, Slowing Global !Vanning (35) when representatives of' 30 countries ambitious but practical goals for there- met in Geneva under the auspices of the duction of carbon emissions, particularly United NationsEnvironmentPro- in those countries that currentlyuse fos- gramme(UNO)andtheWorld silfuels most heavily. Any plan that Meteorological Organization. Following reduces carbon emissions is also likelyto a pattern established in arms talkt,, these help cut back on two other greenhouse nations have formed an Intergovern- gases, nitrous oxide and methane. Only mental Panel on Climate Change that by reducing carbon emissions at least 10 meets periodically to forge an agree- percent in the next decade can the world ment, now scheduled to be in draft by get on course to at least halve emissions late 1990.74 by mid-century. As a start, the panel is spearheading In an effort to balance practicality and efforts to understand the issues of cli- equity against the urgency of the prob- mate change more thorcughly and to lem, we have formulated a set of reduc- consider possible responses. Thegroup tion targets based on today'sper capita includes Brazil, China, India, Japan, the carbon emissions levels.(See Table Soviet Union, the United States, and 2-5.) Countries suchastheLII,ited West Germany, as well as smallercoun- States and the Soviet Union thatcur- tries such as Senegal and Sweden. Inter- rently produce carbon dioxide ata high national treaties on global warming will rate would be required to reduce emis- be far more complex than theagree- sions by about 35 percent in thenext 10 ments on depletion of the ozone layer. years, while nations such as India or While that is caused mainly bya particu- Kenya could continue to increase emis- lar class of industrial chemicals (CFCs), sions. Those with carbon emissions be- many of which can be replaced, global tween these two extremes, such as Italy warming is caused by gases thatare cen- and Japan, would have to reduce them tral to the activities of modern socie- less rapidly.76 ties.75 These targets can be met by pursuing The first step is the establishment of the technologies and policies described

Table 2-5. Proposed Carbon EmissionGoals, Sample Countries Suggest ed Current Carbon Emissions Emissions Level Targets Sample Cotn,,i les (tons/person) (percent/year) <0.5 + 3.0 Kenya, India, Niger 0.5-1.0 + 1.5 China, Nigel ia, Phulippine 1.0-1.5 0 Indonesia, Mexico, South Km 1 5-2.0 ea 0.5 Italy, France, New Zealand 1.0 Japan, Thaikmd, Peru 2.5-3.0 2.0 United Kingdom, West Geimam Braid >3.0 3.0 Austi alia, United States, Soviet Union, Colombia, Me 1)11,ml e socuct: Worldwatch Institute. based on Gtegg Mat land et al..Eshmaiel of (.02 Ammoom from low/ fuel Mooing mut Cement ManuJadunng (Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National Laboiatoll:. 1989): R A I lough- ton et al , "The Flu of Cat bon hom Teltesti talEcosystems in to the Atmosphere m 1980 Dile to Changes I.and Use: Geoglaphic Distribunon of' theGlobal Flux." iellus, Februars April 1987 50 (36) State of the World 1990 earlier in this chapter. The goals are de- N oire to have such high per-capita car- signed to gradually narrow the dispari- bon emissions, these targets imply a ties that now exist among national emis- major effort to slow forest clearing in sions levels. They are also practical, these countries. A carbon reduction calling for a reahzable 12-percent cut in strategy can also begin to slow growth in global emissions by the yeal 2000. (See Third World fossil fuel consumption, Table 2-6.) Under them,projected however, something that is essential if emissions of 6.4 billion tons are 38 per- the planet is to avoid vast increases in cent below what they will be if the world carbon emissions in the decades ahead. continues on its current path. Althoo3h China, for example, would need to cut a 12-percent reduction would not by it- its growth rate in coal use from 3.5 per- self stabilize the climate, it would put the cent per year to 1.5. This change alone world on a course toward stabilization of would reduce emissions estimated for global CO2 concentrations by mid-cen- this decade's end by more than 200 mil- tury. (See Figure 2-2.)" lion tons annually.78 These goals put the onus on the industrial world to take the lead. Unless rapid reductions are achieved in wealth- The world needs to end the produc- ier countries, a stable climate could tion of CFCs and to cut global car- become unachievable for many decades. bon emissions by 10-20 percent Indeed, if industrial countries only keep over the next decade. emissions at today's levels, Third World increases could raise global emissions 20-30 percent by the end of this decade What would a climate change agree- and 50-70 percent by 2010. Unfortu- ment for the nineties 1( ok like? The first nately, no industrial countries have yet element would be a commit- ent to sta- proposed lowering carbon emissions by bilizeaunospheric concentrationsof the needed 20-35 percent in the next 10 greenhouse gases by the middle of the years. twenty-first century, reducing net car- Since itis mainly deforestation that bon emissions to a maximum of 2 billion causes nations such as Brazil or COte d'I- tons per year. With a projected world population of 8 billion, this would imply Billion Tons a per capita rate of carbon emissions 12 close to India's today, or one eighth the Sourvei Oak Ridge National Laboratory, / West European level. To get to this librldwatch 3% Annual, z point, the world needs to end the pro- Growth/ duction of CFCs and to cut global car- / 2T.r, 8- bon emissions by 10-20 percent over the ... - 1%, , next decade, adopting country-specific targets based on the per capita figures Worldwatch Goal described earlier. Within a year of being 4 signed, each country would submit a ./ plan to achieve the goals, and then issue , progressreportseverytwoyears. Negotiators, meanwhile, would consider I 1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 the adoption of stricter goals to begin in Figure 2-2. Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 2000.79 1950-88, With Alternative Projections to 2010 To accomphsn these goalc, UNEP

51 Slowing Global Warming (37) Table 2-6. Global Carbon Emissions,1988, and Goals for 2000 and 2010

1988 2000 2010 Per Per Per Area Carbon Capita Carbon Capita Carbon Capita (million (million (million tons) (tons) tons) (tons) tons) (tons) North America 1,379 5 07 897 3.03 662 2.13 Soviet Union and 1,428 3.55 964 2.23 872 1 91 Eastern Europe Oceania 336 2.27 284 1 79 270 1.65

Latin America 910 2.09 803 1.46 764 1.18 Western Europe 774 2.03 699 1.79 664 1.67 Middle East 187 l 14 187 0 83 217 0.74 Africa 534 0.86 646 0.73 749 0 64 Centrally Planned Asia 774 0.66 932 0.69 1,082 0.73 Fal East Asia 833 0.55 998 0 52 1,158 0.52 World' 7,319 1.42 6,435 1.03 6,438 0.93 1The sums of the columns by region do not equal the uorld total due to U N. leporting irsegolkuInes sonucr Worldwatch Institute estimates, based on Gregg Mar landet , E,timates of CO,, I:missions from fossil Fuel Burning and Cement Manufactunng (Oak Ridge, Tenn. Oak Ridge National Laboratoic. 1989). Economic Research Service. U.S Department of Agriculture.World Population by Countn and Region (Washington. D.C.. 1988): R A. Houghton et al, -The Flux of Carbon from To restrial Ecoss stems to the Annosphete in 1980 Due to Changes in Land Use Geographic Distribution of the Global Flux."rlIns. Feb: nal )-April 1987: and British Petroleum, BP StatisticalReview of World Energy (London: 1989), would need to become amore powerful energy efficiency and reforestation in de- agency, charged with the tasks of coordi- velopingcountries that are now nating research and of reviewing andas- strapped with huge debts. Many effi- sisting with national climate strategies. ciency and forestry investments have As with arms control, verification ises- broad economic andenvironmental sential _oa credible agreement. But value and can he justified on those today UNEP has a minhnal budget and is grounds alone, but without sufficient mainly chartered to coordinate the work capital they may be neglected. One im- of larger U.N. organizations. Recogniz- portant mechanism might be the carbon ing this weakness, the leaders of 17 tax described earlier. Pledging 10 per- countries, including France. Japan, and cent of the ITN enues from such a tax to West Germany, met in the Netherlands Fhird World programs would createan in March 1989. The resulting Hague annual fund of $28 billion. Such a fund Declaration called for the development could he managed by the United Na- within the United Nations ofa ncw or tions, which would make dispersalcon- newly strengthened institutional author- tingent on the implementation of credi- ity with powers to carry out the provi- ble climate stabilization plans. I'llgrains sions of a global wal ming agreement." to improve energy efficiency. manage One issue that must be addressed is forests. planttrees, slow population how to pay for massive investments in growth,developrenewableenergy

1111111110111111111, (38) State of the World 1990 sources, and design CFC substitutes around in carbon emissions trends can would be eligible for support. begin to get the world on the path to a The World Bank andinstitutions stable climate. Wholesale changes in en- such as the U.N. Development Pro- ergy, land use, and population polkies gramme can also play a role by increas- are implied. Unless such action is taken ing their lending for such projects and in the next few years, however, the nine- by including climate protection as a ties will become a lost decade for the consideration when reviewing loans. In world's atmosphere, relegating the next recent years the Bank has been increas- generation to a world less able to meet ingly receptive to the idea of lending growing human needs. No other envi- for efficiency improvements, including ronmental problem has such an expo- aproposed$1-billionprogramin nential and cumulative dimension to it, a China, but few loans have been ap- fact that argues persuasively for the improved. In a September 1989 speech, mediate adoption of strong policies. World Bank President Barber Conable The benefits of such an effort extend was still talking about the uncertainties well beyond stabilization of the climate. of global warming and announced no Economies would be strengthened, new significant new initiatives. The world industriescreated,airpollutionre- community will need to broaden the duced, and forests preserved for their mandate for these lending institutions, economic and recreational benefits. For forcibly enlisting them in the effort to humanity as a whole, it would be another sustain a livable climate.8i step in the evolution of society, demon- As the scientific evidence mounts, the strating the ability to work cooperatively time has arrived for a global warming as a world community. It would be an agree mentcomprehe nsiv e,detailed, auspicious beginning to the new millen- and prescriptive. Only a rapid turn- nium.

53 3 Saving Water for Agriculture Sandra Postel

Irrigation, among themost ancient of nually, especially as opportunitiesto cul- technological activities, has turnedmany tivate new land dwindled. of the earth's sunniest,warmest, and It now looks, however, as though irri- most fertile lands into important crop- gation will not boost food suppliesas producing regions. Egypt couldgrow much during the nineties as it has inre- virtually no food withoutwater drawn cent decades. A confluence of forces has from the Nile or from undergrounu begun to slow irrigation's expansion and aquifers. California's Central Valleyand to chip away at the existing irrigated the Aral Sea basinthe fruit andvegeta- area. Rising costs for new projects, a ble baskets of the United States and the host of ecological problems, growing Soviet Unioncould barely becul- concern about the social and environ- tivated without supplementalwater sup- mental effects of large dams, andwors- i Nnd absent irrigation, output from ening regional water scarcities haveall the a IL.1 grain-growing areas of north- placed severe constraintson agricultural ern China, northwestern India, and the water use. Moreover, climate change western U.S. Grzat Plains would drop by from the buildup of atmosphericgreen- Prie third to one half. house gases casts ominous s'dows over As world populationgrew from 1.6 future supplies, and at the very least will billion to more than 5 billion require massive invesimtlits to adjust over the the global irrigation base. last 90 years, irrigation becamea cornerstone of global food security. The higher Moving rapidly from profligacyto greater efficiency and eouity in agricul- yields farmers couldget with a controlla- ture's use of water is the surestway to 'use water supply proved vitalto feeding the miliions added to avert shortages and lessen irrigation's ec- our numbers an- ological toll. Farming accounts forsome An expanded version of dus chaptet appearedas 70 percent of global wateruse. Much of Worldwatch Paper 93,Wale> for Agriculture Faong the vast quantity diverted by and for the Lunt's. farmers never benefits a crop: world- 54 (40) State of the World 1990 wide, the efficiency of irrigation systems mands into line with water's natural .im- averages less than 40 percent. The tech- its nologies and know-how exist to boost that figure substantially; what is needed are policies and incentives that foster efficiency instead of discouraging it.' THE END OF AN ERA? Greater attention to small-scale irriga- Res(. ce historian:. sizing upthe twen- tion and to improving rainfed farming tieth century will almost certainly char- can also help prevent water scarcity from acterize it as an age of irrigation. Be- undercutting food production. Hope for tween 1900 and 1950, irrigated area balanc.ag the water budgets of many worldwide nearly doubled, rising to 94 cuniries with rapidly growing popula- million hectares. An even faster surge tion, however, hinges as much on slow- since then has brought the total to about ing birth rates as it does on raising water 250 million hectares. Today, one third productivity. The struggle for a secure of the global harvest comes from the 17 water future will not end until societies percent of the world's cropland that is begin to bring human numbers and de- irrigated. (See Table 3-1.) Many coun-

Table 3-1. Gross Irrigated Area, Top 15 Countries and the World, 1986

Gross Share of Cropland Country Irrigated Areas That is Irrigated (thodc -,:ares) (percent) India t;.t ,)(i' 33 China 45,600 48 Soviet Union 21,000 9 United Sta.es 19,000 10 Pakistan 16,000 77

Indonesia 7,300 34 Iran 5,800 39 Mexico 5,300 21 Spam 3,300 16 1 urkey 3,300 12

Egypt 3,200 100 Thailand 3,200 16 Italy 3,000 25 Japan 3,000 63 Romania 3,000 28

Other 52,200 9

World 250,200 17 'As used here, gross irngated area is the area equipped INIth irrigation facilities, It m., lies nothing about cropping intensity. SOURCES. IrngatIURestimates from W. Robert Rangeley, Washington D.C., pi-nate communication. June 1989, cropland area from U.N. Foua and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook 1987 (Rome. 1988). Saving Water for Agriculture (41) triessuch as China, Egypt, India, In- economic conditions during much of the donesia, Israel, Japan, North and South eighties discouraged agricultural invest- Korea, Pakistan, and Perurelyon such ments. The logical presumption is that land for more than half their domestic when crop prices rise, irrigation will pick food production.2 up speed again. Unfortunately, this opti- Since the late seventies, though,ex- mistic outlook ignores several important pansion has slowed markedly. Whereas problems. net irrigated area grew 2-4 percent per year during the sixties and seventies, since 1979 the annual rate has beenon The costs of adding irrigationca- average about 1 percentfar lower than the growth in world population. (Net ir- pacity have been rising rapidly in rigated area is the land estimatedto have many countries. actually been irrigated that particular year; it is less than the gross area, that estimated to be equipped with irrigation Lending for irrigation bv the major in- facilities.)3 ternational donors has declined sharply Per capita irrigated area peaked at over the last decade. Total lenng to 23 47.9 hectares per thousand people in countries in Asia, North Africa, and the 1978, and then fell to 45.2 hectares in Middle East by the World Bank, the 1987, a drop of 5.6 percent. (See Figure Asian Development Bank,theU.S. 3-1.) Estimates compiled by the U.N. Agency for International Development, Food andAgricultureOrganization and the Japanese Overseas Economic (FAO) show that only 16 million hect- Cooperation Fund fell more than 60per- ar,!s were added to the global irrigation cent in real terms between 1977 and base between 1980 and 1987, anaverage 1987. Given that large projects often of 2.3 million hectares peryear, roughly take a decade or more to complete, this half the rate during the seventies.4 funding drop suggests that in agoot This slowdown occurred for -eveial deal of the Third World, growth in irri- reasons. Low commodity prices, com- gated area will not quicken much in the paratively high energy costs, and rrreral nineties.3 A related cause of the slowdown is that Hectares Per Thousand the costs of adding irrigation capacity Population building new darns, :esenoirs, canals, 50 and distribution channelshave been rising rapidly in many countries, making fr. it harder to justify such investmentson 45- economic grounds. Engineers naturally exploited the best sites for water devel- 49- opment first. Recent projects have been technically more complex, leading to greater expenditures. 35 In India, for example, the cost in real terms of large canal schemes more than Sources. FAO, United Nations doubledbetween1950and1980. Today, capital costs for new irrigation 1950 19t- 1970 1980 :990 2000 capacity run about $1,500per hectare in Figure 3-1. World Net 1n:gated Area Per Caplie, China, and between $1,500 and $4,0' 0 1950-87 per hectare for large projects in India,

r.; 6 (42) State of the World 1990 Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and ultimate objectiv e is to enhance food se- Thailand. They climb toward $6,000 per curity.9 hectare for public projects in Brazil, and For the foreseeable future, therefore, toward $10,000 per hectare in Mexico.6 irrigation's contribution will have to Developing new capacity costs the come more from improving existing sys- most in parts of Africa. Lack ofroads and tems than from expanding them to new other infrastructure, the relatively small land. This requires a fundamental shift parcels of irrigable land, and the sea- in thinking: engineers are trained to de- sonal nature of river flows have driven sign and build physical infrastructure, per-hectare costs in many projects to be- not to operate it effectively from the tween $10,000 and $20,000, or even farmers' point of view. And many gov- higher. Not even double-cropping of ernment irrigation agencies, intent on higher-valued crops can make irrigation maintaining their large budgets, con- systems at the top end of this spectrum sider expansion their ultimate mission, economical. Not surprisingly, Africa's ir- rather than a toot to increase food out- rigated area has expanded minimally put and raise rural incomes. since 1980, even though just 5 percent Behind the ravs numbers lie vast dis- of the continent's cropland (excluding crepancies in irrigation's performance South Africa) is irrigated.7 and quality. In many large surface-water The debt burden hanging over many systems, less than half the water diverted developing countries makes the situa- fromthereservoiractuallybenefits tion even bleaker. Irrigated area in Mex- crops. Much seeps through unlined ca- ico, for example, has actually declined nals before it gets to field, An additional since 1985, in large part because its fal- amount runs off the land or percolates tering economy has led to cuts in capital unused through the soil because farmers improvements, including expanding and apply water unevenly, excessively, or at rehabilitating these systems. Officials in the. ong times. Typical efficiencies for Brazil view accelerated irrigation as criti- large projects in Asia run about 30 per- cal to their goal of achieving greater cent. Fortunately, not all this water is food self-sufficiency. But their ambitious wasted: mud- of it returns to a nearby targets for the early nineties seem un- stream or joins underground supplies, likely to be met, given the required in- and thus can be used again. But as it vestments.8 picks up salts, fertilizers, and pesticides As costs rise and public investments along the way, itis often degraded in decline, a larger share of whatever new quality and contaminates water sources irrigation does come on-line seems likely downstream.") to support production of' higher-valued Lack of maintenance has caused many cash crops rather than rice, wheat, and systems to fall into disrepair, further in- other food staples, especially if govern- hibiting performance. Over time, distri- ments cannot afford to subsidize this bution channels fill with silt, increasing farming heavily. Should grain prices i ise thelikelihoodof breaching,outlets because of diminished global stocksa break or are bypassed, and salts build up possibility in this decade ksee Chapter in the soil. In China, for example, more 4)investments willalmost certainly than 930,000 hectares of irrigated farm- pick up again. But the poor who suffer land have come out of production since most from food shortages are unlikely to 1980. Similarly, in the Soviet Union be able to afford crops at the high prices the world's third largest irrigatorpoor needed to inspire such investments. Nei- performance caused irrigation to cease ther scenario is comforting if irrigation's on 2.9 million hectares between 1971

..... LI 7 Saving IVater for Agncultule and 1985, equal to a quarter of thenew at the end of the line end up without area brought under iirigation.II enough water for their crops. Worldwide, an estimated 150 million One project in the Indianstate of hectares-60 percent of the world's total Maharashtra, for example, hadsugar- irrigated areaneed some form ofup- cane occupying 12 percent of the irri- grading to remainin good working gated area when the design calledfor order. An increasing share of available only 4 percent. Since thewater needed capital will thus go to rehabilitatingex- for a hectare of sugarcane could irrigate isting systems. Although this is wise ald about 10 hectares of wheat, this practice necessary, it will further diminish fund- causes much less area to be irrigated ing for new projects." than was initially planned. Food produc- Poor management and inequities in tion falls short of expectations, andthe the distribution of waterare also to gap between wealthy and poor farmers blame for irrigation's disappointingper- widens.'5 formance. Many systems deliverwater All these factors add up to much of the on a fixed schedule that does not match world's existing irrigation beingun- crops' needs. In other cases, the supply derused, yielding far below its potential, is so unpredictable and unreliablethat and, in some cases, failingto enhance farmers cannot risk investing in other food and income security for those who yield-raising inputs and activities, such most need itthe rural poor. To be as better seeds, fertilizers, or leveling sure, irrigation has greatly expanded their land to ensule efficient watering. world food output, alleviating hunger As a result, output remains far below its and improving diets inmany areas. But potential." as future gains get harder to come by,an A studyin Pakistan, for example, important question becomes: irrigation found that the average yields from irri- for yhom and for what? gated fields of wheat, rice, andsugar- cane were 60-70 percent below the upper range of yields some farmers achieved. This "yield gap" can largely be explained by ineffectivemanagement of THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRICE the water supply and its influenceon farmers' other management decisions.14 TAG The plight of "tailenders"farmers Each year, some 3,300 cubic kilometers last in line to receive supplies from large of watersix times the annual flowof canalsunderscores the consequences the Mississippiare removed from of inefficient and unfair distribution. the earth'srivers,streams,andunder- Typically, farmers at the head ofa pro- ground aquifers to watercrops. Prac- ject area begin irrigating before the ca- ticed on such a scale, irrigation hashad nals and distribution channels reachthe a profound impact on global water bod- end. By planting water-intensive crops, ies and on the cropland receivingit. such as sugarcane or rice, they stakea Waterlogged and salted lands, declining claim to more water thanwas planned and contaminated aquifers, shrinking for their plots. Often wealthier and lakes and inland seas, and the destruc- wielding considerable political influ- tion of aquatic habitats combineto hang ence, they then lobby effectively to main- on irrigationa highenvironmental tain their heavy withdrawalseven when price." the project is completed. Poorer farmers Mounting concern about this ecologi- (1-1) Slate of the World 1990 cal toll is making new w ater projects in- area suffers from salinization. Estimates creasingly unacceptable. And ironically, for the world's top five irrigators clearly the degradation of irrigated land from suggest, however, that the problem is poor Is ater management is forcing somc sufficiently widespread to be reducing 1nd to be retired completely, offsetting world crop output. In India,salinity a portion of the gains costly new projects reduces yields on some 20 million hectare intended to yield. ares, and an additional 7 million have By far the most pervasive damage been abandoned assaltywasteland. stems from waterlogging and saliniza- China has about 7 million hectares of tion of the soil. Without adequate drain- saline and alkaline agricultural land, and age, seepage from unlined canals and Pakistan 3.2million.IntheUnited overwatering of fields raises the underly- States, salinity expert James Rhoades es- ing groundwater. Eventually, the root timates that salt buildup lowers crop zone becomes waterlogged,stat ving yields on 25-30 percent of the nation's plants of oxygen ,iiu inhibiting their irrigated land. Some 2.5 million hectares growth. In dry climates evaporation of are salinized in the SONiet Union, most of water near the soil surface leases behind them in the irrigated deserts of central a layer of salt that also reduces crop Asia. Assuming the same share of world yields and, if the buildup becomes exces- irrigated area is damaged as the collec- sive, kills the crops. tive sharc in these top five, salinization is reducing yields on 24 perc of irrigated land worldwide. (See "I Able 3-2.) The degradation of irrigated land Other areas severely affected include from poor water management is Afghanistan, the Tigris and Euphrates river basins in Syria and Iraq, and Tur- forcing some land to be retired key. In Egypt, where virtuallyallcrop- completely. land is irrigated, half is salinized enough to register diminished yields. And in Mexico, salinization is estimated to be Even the best w atel supplies ty pically reducing crop output by the equivalent have concentrations of 200-500 parts of 1million tons of grain per year per million (ppm). (For comparison, enoughtofeed5millionpeople, ocean water has a salinity of about 35,- roughly a quarter of Mexico City)8 000 ppm; water with less than 1,000 ppm In the western United States, exces- isconsidered fresh; and the recom- sive irrigation and poor drainage have mended limit for drinking water in the spawnedanothersetof problems. United States is 500 ppm.) Applying 10,- There, scientists have linked alarming 000 cubic meters of w ater to a hectare discoveries of death, grotesque deformi- per year a fairly typical irrigation rate, ties, and reproductive failure in fish, thus acids between 2 and 5 tons of salt to birds, and other wildlife to agricultural the soil annually . If it is not flushed out, drainage water laced with toxic chemi- this can build up to enormous quantities cals. Since 1985, intensive investigations in a couple of decades, greatly daiaaging throughout the area have found lethal or the land. Aerialles% s of abandoned in i- potentially hazardous selenium concen; gated areas in the world's dry regions t. ations at 22 different wildlife sites, in- reveal vast expanses of glistening white cluding Kesterson National Wildlife Ref- salt, land so destroyed itis essentially uge, which has earned the unenviable useless) 7 reputation of being the Three Mile Is- No one knows for sure how large an land of irrigated agriculture.19

ri Savnig Itratet for Agnculture (45) Table 3-2. Irrigated Land Damaged by Salinization, Top Five Irrigators and World Estimate, Mid-Eighties

Share of Irrigated Country Area Damaged Land Damaged (million hectares) (percent) India 20.0 36 China 7.0 15 United States 5.2 97 Pakistan 3.2 20 Soviet Union 2.5 12

Total 37.9 94

World' 60 2 24 lEstimated bs assuming the share of i emaining %oddin igated arca that is affected is the same as the share in the five leading irrigators. souiters D R Rhumb la and Aisind Khare, "Estimate of Wastelandsin Societv for Promotion of Wastelands Development. New Delhi, undated, Ministry ofWater Resources and Electric Posner, Irrigation and Drainage in China (Beijing 1987): U S estimate fromJames Rhoades, Director. U.S. Sahnity Laboratory, Rivei Ade, Calif., prnate communication. September 1. 1989. Pakistan estimate from Ministry of Food and Agmulture. Report of the National Commissionon Agricuituie (Islamabad. 1988). Soviet figure from Philip Mickfin. Western Michigan Universit), Kalamaioo. Mich..private communication. October 13. 1989. Selenium,anaturalelement,is much, and where, remainsto be seen." needed by humans andsome other ani- Contamination of land and water by mals in very small amounts, but is highly salts and toxic chemicals is onlyone indi- poisonous at greater concentrations. Ir- cation that some irrigation is unsustaina- rigation washed more selenium and ble. In much of the world, fallingwater other dangerous chemicalsout of the tables signalthat groundwater with- soil in several decades than natural rain- drawals exceed the rate of replenish- fall would have done in centuries. Either ment. As water levels decline, over- stored in ponds to evaporateor chan- pumping eventually can make irrigation neled away from farmland by riversor too costly to continue, and caneven canals, this toxic drainage has becomea drain some aquifers dry. In eithercase, serious hazard to western wildlifeand land is forced out of irrigationtemporar- possibly to humans, as harmful sub- ily or permanently. stances move up the food chain. In the United States, more than 4 mil- Potential solutions to the drainage di- lion hectaresroughly a fifth of thena- lemma, which include detoxification by tion's irrigatedareaare watered by soil microbes, mechanical filtration; and pumping in exLess of recharge. By the chemical treatment, range incost from early eighties, the depletionw s particu- $30 million to more than $100 million larly severe in Texas, California, Kansas, per year for some indefinite period in and Nebraska, four important food-pro- California alone. With such pricetags ducing states.In Texas, water tables and the high ecological stakes ofcon- were falling at least 15 centimeters (6 tinued irrigation, it seems likely that ;.:rlics) per year beneath 1.54 million some irrigated U.S. land will come out of hec,,res, 72 percent of the state's total production over the next decade. How irrigated area. During the late seventies 60 (46) State of the World 11,90 and early eighties, falling groundwater shrinking Aral Sea in the central Asian levels combined with high energy Lusts republics of the Soviet Union. Fully 95 and low commodity prices to pull much percent of the Soviet cotton harvest is irrigated land out of production. The grown in this region, as well as a third of total in Texas fell 30 percent between the country's fruits, a quarter of its vege- 1974, its peak, and 1987.21 tables, and 40 percent of its rice.24 Owing to the dry climate, 90 percent of the cropland in these Soviet republics In much of the world, falling water is irrigated. As production expanded signalthatgroundwater during the sixties and seventies, increas- tables ing amounts of water were diverted from withdrawals exceed the rate of re- the region's two major rivers, the Amu plenishment. Dar'ya and Syr Dar'yathe only sources of replenishment for the Aral Sea other than the meager rainfall. By 1980, flows Current year-to-year fluctuations in in these rivers' lower stretches had been U.S. irrigated area reflect crop prices reduced to a trickle, and the sea had con- and government farm policies more than tracted markedly. (See Figure 3-2)25 water availability and cost. Indeed, the According to Philip Micklin of West- 1989 total was likely the highest since ern Michigan University, an expert on 1982, with much of the recent growth Soviet water issues, the Aral's surface occurring in the Southeast. Nonetheless, area has shrunk by more than 40 percent overpumping cannot continue indefi- since 1960, volume has dropped by two nitely. The 4 million hectares currently thirds, and salinity levels have tripled. watered unsustainablywilleventually All native fish species have disappeared, come out of irrigated production unless decimating commercial fisheries. Winds farmers reduce pumping to no more pick up salt from the dry seabed and an- than the rate of aquifer charge.22 nually dump 43 million tons of it on sur- No other country has systematically rounding cropland, damaging harvests. assessed the extent of excessive ground- Micklin warns that if no corrective mea- water pumping. But the situation is seri- sures are taken, by the end of this decade ous elsewhere as well, including in China Cubic and India, two of the three other major Square Kilometers food producers. Groundwater levels are Kilometers Per Year falling up to a meter per year in parts of 80 100 the North China Plain, an important Irrigation Consumption wheat-growing region. Heavy pumping (est.) in portions of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu reportedly dropped 60- -80 water levels as much as 25-30 meters in a decade; in the western state of Gujarat, Aral Sea Area overpumping by irrigators in the coastal 40 -60 dB,ricts has caused saltwater to invade the aquifer, contaminating village drink- Sources.. Altckhn, ing supplies.23 Vorftsun et at Signs of irrigation overstepping eco- logicallimits are evident among the 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 world's rivers, lakes, and streams, as Figure3-2. Sea Arva, 1960-85, and Irrigation well. By far the most dramatic is the Consumption, 1963-87, in AralSdiBasin Saving Water for Agriculture (17) the Aralonce the world's fcurth larg- are pushing ahead, in part with a World est freshwater lake"could consist of a Bank loan, even though the dam'sim- main body in the south witha salinity pact on the river's ecology has not been well above the ocean and several small adequately investigated.Nor, appar- brine lakes in the north."26 ently, have studies been completedon Saving the Aral, albeit in some dimin- how to manage the watershedto prevent ished form, is now a high priority inthe erosion from rapidlysilting up the Soviet Union. A long-standing planto planned reservoir and canals." divert water from north-flowing Siberian In Africa, as elsewhere, planners often rivers southwest into central Asia has overestimate the benefits of largepro- been shelved, at least for the time being, jects and underestimate social and envi- because of concerns over the scheme's ronmentalcosts.Developmentan- environmental effects and its exorbitant thropologist Thztycr scudder pointsout costestimated to range between 45 bil- thatlargc'irrigationschemeshave lion and 100 billion rubles ($70 billion tendeci to benefit a small minority there to $156 billion at the mid-October 1989 while often destroying local production official exchange rate).27 systems, such as floodwater farming and Planners hope that curtailing agricul- fisheries, that are vital to thepoorer ma- ture's water use in the Aral Sea basin will jority.Following completion of the be sufficient to preserve thesea. In a Kainji Dam in northern Nigeria, fish September 1988 decree, the Communist catches and dry-season harvests from Party Central Committee laidout a strat- traditional floodplain agriculture egy aimed at raising average flows into dropped by more than half. A similar the sea threefold over average levels pattern was noted when the Bakolori during the eighties by theyear 2005, Dam came on-line. And after the nearby largely by making irrigationsystems Taiga Dam was completed, fish and more efficient. The plan could easily cost floodplain harvests reportedly dropped 30 billion rubles ($47 billion); whether even more than during the disastrous the needed investments materializere- drought in the early seventies." mains to be seen. It may wellturn out In the United States, where theera of that preventing further ecological havoc dam-building has largely ended and will require taking some of So viet central where water in many river basins is al- Asia's prized farmland out of produc- ready overallocated,concerns center on tion.28 the loss of free-flowing rivers, the de- All this visible ecological damage from struction of fisheries from streamfiow large-scaleirrigationhasspawned depletion, and damage to riverine and strong opposition to new dams and di- wildlife habitat. Effortsto restore and version projects, eveninthe Third protect natural ecosystems could involve World, where water developmentre- shifting water away from agriculture, by mains a high priority. In February 1989, far the biggest consumer in the West. 10,000 people demonstrated against the Heightened awareness about these Sardar Sarovar Dam. a centerpiece of environmental effects may also upset the India's Narmada Valley Development renewal of federal irrigationcontracts, Project, which encompasses 30 large hundreds of which come due in thenext dams, several hundred medium-sized couple of decades. The U.S. Environ- ones, and 3,000 small ones. Sardar Saro- mental Protection Agency, backed by the var alone would flood vast areas of for- Council on Environmental Quality,con- ests and farmlands and displace up to tends that extending -t leastsome of 100,000 people. Government officials these contracts requires the preparation

C2 (48) State of the World 1990 of an Environmental Impact Statement growing on average at about 3 percent a under the National Environmental Pol- year could well be impossible.32 icy Act. Should thorough impact studies Egypt, where rain is sparse, represents be required, farmers would almost cer- the extreme of the region's dilemma. Its tainly be forced to reduce harm to wild- Sa million people depend almost en- life, damage to the land, and toxic con- tirely on the waters of the Nile, none of tamination generallysteps that, if too which originates within the desert na- costly, could pull more land out of irrigation's borders. Virtually all its cropland tion.31 requirP; igation. With its population leaping by 1 million every "ft rlionths, drinking-water and food needs are rising rapidly: water demands will likely exceed reliable supplies within a decade or so.33 SCARCITY, COMPETITION, To make matters worse, the Nile can diminish markedly during periods of low AND CONFLICT rainfall. During the summer of 1988, after several years of drought in the wa- Regional shortages cropping up around tershed, the Nile dropped to its lowest the world form another growing threat level 1n a century. Fortunately, good to agriculture's heavy claim on water re- rains sirk.s: then have restored supplies. sources.(See Table 3-3.)Scarcities But the reprieve may not last long. The loom in a number of areas where irriga- Nile's runoff pattern exhibits periods of tion is critical to farming, often account- low flow early in each century. Dimin- ing for 80 percent or more of water con- ished supplies superimposed on escalat- sumption. Many of these regions also are ing demands could initiate a painful pe- experiencing rapid population growth riod of chronic water shortages." and urbanizationsetting the stage for Just across the Suez Canal, the situa- heated competition between cities and tion looks equally grim. Israel, Jordan, farms, and imposing constraints on agri- and Syria get most of their water from cultural development. the Jordan River basin. Israel already In much of northern and eastern uses 95 percent of the renewable sup- Africa, increasing human numbers are plies available to it, largely because it on a collision course with scarce water expanded the irrigated area sixfold since resources. Swedish hydrologist Malin 1948, The World Bank predicts that if Falkenrnark has found that societies typi- current consumption patterns continue, cally experience "water stress" when an- water demands in Israel, Jordan, and the nual renewable supplies per capita ap- West Bank will exceed all renewable proach 2,000 cubic meters. By the end of supplies within six years. Both Israel and the nineties, six out of seven East African Jordan may soon face the politically dif- countries and all five north African ones ficult choice of shifting water away from bordering the Mediterranean will ex- farmers to supply growing domestic and ceed this measure of water scarcity. Six industrial needs.35 of these countries will have less than Competition over water is heighten- 1,000 cubic meters to tap per person. All ing in China, as well, where dozens of of North Africa except Morocco already cities already face acute shortages. The imports half or more of its grain. Under predicament isespecially dire in and conditions of such severe water scarcity, around Beijing, in the important indus- boosting food self-sufficiency and meet- trial city of Tianjin, and in other portions ing the domestic needs of populations of the North China Plain, a vast expanse

63 Saving Water for Agncultute (49) Table 3-3. Water Scarcity, Selected Countries andRegions Country/Region Observation Africa, North and Ten countries likely to experiencesevere water stress by 2000; East Egypt, already near its limits, could lose vital suppliesft om the Nile as upper-basin countries develop the river's headwaters.

China Fifty cities face acute shortages; water tablesbeneath Beijing are dr .)pping 1-2 meters per year; farmers in Beijing region could lose 30-40 percent of their suppliesto domestic and industrial uses.

India Tens of thousands of villages throughout Indianow face shortages; plans to divert water from BrahmaputraRiver have heightened Bangladesh's fear of shortages; largeportions of New Delhi have water ocily a few hoursa day. Mexico Groundwater pumping in parts of the valley containingMexico City exceed recharge by 40 percent, causing landto subside; few options exist to import more freshwater.

Middle East With Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank expectedto be using all renewable sources by 1995, shortagesare Imminent; Syria could lose vital supplies when Turkey's massiveAtaturk Dam comes on-line in 1992.

Soviet Union Depletion of river flows has caused volume of AralSea to drop by two thirds since I960;, Irrigation plans havebeen scaled back, high unemployment and deteriorating conditionshave caused tens of thousands to leave thearea.

Umted States One fifth of total irrigated area is watered byexcessive pumping of grounduater; roughly half ofwestern rivers are overappropriated; to augment supplies, citiesare buying farmers' water rights. SOURCE Worldwatch Institute, based on various sources of fiat, fertile farmland that yields a quar- water budget. A management study for ter of the nation's grain. Water tables Beijing suggests that farmers in the vi- beneath the capital have been dropping cinity could lose 30-40 percent of their 1-2 meters per year; already, a third of current supply within the next 10 years. its wells have reportedly gone dry.36 In dry years, some already lose out: Most supplies on the North China when the levels of Beijing's two major Plain have already been tapped, yet de- reservoirs fell to record lows in 1985, mands continue to grow rapidly. Shift- supplies to farmers not growing vegeta- ing water from farm to city use may be bles were cut off.37 the only way to balance the region's In pockets of the western United (50) Slate of Ihe World 1990 States, a region plagued by numerous annual cost per acre foot consened is waterdeficits,suppliesarebeing estimated at $128, far lower than MWD's siphoned away from agricultureby best new-supply option. Enough water is thirsty cities willing to pay a premium to being transferred this way to meet the ensure water for their future growth. needs of 800,000 Californians, yet no Where systems of water law and alloca- cropland is being taken out of production establish clear property rights to tion and no irrigation water rights are water, markets can operate to transfer actually being sold.39 supplies between willing buyers and ell- At the other extreme are transactions ers for an agreed-upon price. in Arizona, where Tucson, Phoenix, and other burgeoning cities have taken to "water ranching." State law makes it Agriculture will likely lose supplies difficult to buy rights towaterindepen- nearing dent of the land. As of April 1988, some wherever demands are 232,800 hectares of agricultural land water's natural limits. had been purchased as water farms. In Pima County, where Tucson is located, irrigated agriculture is expected to dis- Clearly, if a farmer can earn more sell- appear by 2020.49 ing water to a nearby city than spraying The extent to which marketing leads it on cotton, alfalfa, or wheat, shifting to reductions in irrigated area will de- that water from farm to city use is pend on how desperate for water cities economically beneficial. If it prevents become, and on whether farmers re- the city from damming another riser to spond more by retiring land or improv- increase supplies, the transfei can also ing efficiency. But whether marketing is benefit the environment. Sale prices encouraged or not, agriculture will likely have varied greatly, with perpetual water lose supplies wherever demands are rights having been sold for less than nearing water's natural limits, since al- $200 per acre-foot in the Salt Lake City most every where this resource's value in area, but for as high as $3,000 to $6,000 crop production is far less than in other per acre-foot in the rapidly urbanizing activities. Planners in China calculate, Colorado Front Range. (An acre-foot for example, that a given amount of equals 325,850 gallons or 1,233 cubit water used in industry generates more meters, enough to supply a ty pical four- than 60 times the economic value of that person U.S. household for about two same amount used in agriculture.4' yeai .)38 Growing concernaboutexcessive Many large trades of this kind obvi- stream-flow depletion could also ously could threaten crop production. heighten competition for farmei s' water. But not all fai in-to-city transfers require The doctrine or "prior appropriation" shifting water rights permanentl) out of governing Is esternater allocations in agi iculture. For example, the Metropoli- the United States traditionally assigned tan Water District of Southei n Califor- rights only to water withdraw n from a nia (MWD)waterwholesalerfor river or stream for some "beneficial roughly half the state's 28 million resi- use." Historically , diversions for agricul- dentshas agreed to finance conserva- tural, industrialind domestic purposes tion projects in the neighboring Impe- met this criterion, but no rights were rial Irrigation District in exchange for granted for watei left instream to pre- the estimated 100,000 acre-feet of water serve fish and wildlife habitat, recrea- per year the investments will say e. The tional whitewater, and other ecological

G5 Saving Il'ater for Agncultule (51) and aesthetic values. In recent years, all bling of heat-trapping gasesover prein- the western states except New Mexico dustrial levels. Global averages, how- have taken steps to protect instream ever, say little about what particular water values. Most legally recognize regions will experience. Temperatures these functions as a beneficial use and, in will rise almost everywhere, though by some cases, have authorized state agen- more in the temperate and polar regions cies to buy water rights from private than in the tropics; rainfall will increase holders in order to boost streamflow ley- in some areas, decreasein others.44 els.42 Runoff, the primary measure ofa re- "Another powerful U.S. lever is the gion's renewable water supply, isa func- public trust doctrine," which asserts tion of the amounts of water gained that governments hold certain rights ii. through precipitation and lost through trust for the people and can take steps to evaporationorviatranspiration by protect those rights from private inter- plants. Besides temperature and precipi- ests. Its application could have sweeping tation, global warming will alter winds, effects, since even existing water rights humidity, and cloud coverall influ- could be revoked to prevent violation of ences on evapotranspiration and, thus, the public trust.43 runoff. Scientists have also found that plantsgrownincarbon-dioxide-en- riched air partially close the leafopen- ings through which watervapor and other gases are exchanged with theat- WATER IN THE GREENHOUSE mosphere, enabling them to use water more efficiently. Studies have shown that WORLD doubling carbon dioxide levelscan re- Despite its many uncertainties, global duce transpiration by a third to half; warming guarantees that the future will across an entire watershed, this could not be a simple extrapolation of the past. augment runoff substantially. Scientists (See Chapters 2 and 5.) Changes in do not know, however, whetherwater water availability, among the profound efficiency would actually increase like this in natural environments, given the transformations in store, add an entirely new dimension to the constraints irri- many other factors at work.45 Much of the limited research done to gated agrkulture faces during the next explore global warming's potential im- several decades. pact on regional water supplies has Like a one-way filter,greenhouse focused on the western United States,a gases allow the sun's energy to pass food-producing area of great impor- through the atmosphere but trap the tance that relies heavily on irrigation. A longer-wave radiation emitted back to- large share of the West's runoff derives ward space. As a result of their buildup from the melting of high-mountain from human activities, the earth's lower snowpacks, which are in effect vastreser- atmosphere will warm, v-hich in turn will voirs that release their supplies gradu- cause its hydrological cyclethe trans- ally through the spring andsummer. A fer of water between the sea, air, and good deal of western agriculture de- landto pick up speed. Both precipita- pends on this meltwater becoming avail- tion and evaporation, which balance able during the growing season. each other in the planetary water bud- Moreover, engineers designed the nu- get, are expected to increase by 7-15 merous reservoirs in the West to meet percent with the equivalent of a dou- hydropower, flood protection, andwater

r) 6 (52) State of the World 1990 supply needs assuming that historic run- vere water deficits would likely arise. off patterns would continue. Changes in Since increasing scarcity has already those patterns would greatly complicate shifted water out of agriculture, large re- water management, and cost billions ductions in available supplies would un- either in greater flood damages, reduced doubtedly hasten that trend. Indeed, hydropower, and more severe summer balancingtheclimate-alteredwater shortagcs, or in new reservoirs and other budgets of these seven regions could re- measurestoavoidthoseconse- quire taking as many as 4.6 million hect- quences." ares out of irrigation, nearly a quarter of Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute for the U.S. total.49 Studies in Development, Environment, Even as forces act to siphon water and Security and John Schaake, a hy- away from farms, a greater share of crop- drologist with the National Weather Ser- land may need the protection from soil- vice, have each shown that the antici- moisture deficits that irrigation offers. pated higher temperatures will The late Professor Dean Peterson and dramatically alter the timing of runoff in consultant Andrew Keller estimated that key parts of the West. Schaake analyzed a rise of 3 degrees Celsius would pull changes in runoff for the Animas River at irrigation water needs up by 15 percent. Durango, Colorado. He found that an If in addition rainfall increased by 10 increase of 2 degrees Celsius, with no percent, irrigation needs would rise only change in precipitation, would affect 7 percent. But the combination of the total annual runoff very little. Seasonal same temperature increase and a 10-per- runoff patterns, however, would change cent drop in rainfall would mean the markedly as a result of reduced winter need for irrigation water would go up by snowpack and faster melting of the snow 26 percent." that does fall.47 With too little water available to ex- Schaake's model showed that average pand irrigation in the West, cropland runoff for January through March would needing additional water for profitable increase by 85 percent, while in the criti- production but unable to get it would cal months of July through September it likely come out of cultivation altogether. would drop by 40 percent. Such drastic Peterson aod Kt-ller estimated that cul- shifts would raise the risk of flooding, tivated area in the western states could require costly trade-offs between hydro- shrink by 24 percel 1, 15 percent, and 31 power and water supply needs, and lead percent under the three different sce- to scarcities during the hot, dry summer, narios." when water demands for crops and Global warming's impacts on water re- urban areas are greatest.48 sources and irrigation have not been To assess possible impacts for the en- studied as closely for other locations in tire western region, Charles Stockton the world. Yet for several reasons, cli- and William Boggess examined the ef- mate change over the nextseveral fects on seven river basins of a 2-degree- decades seems likely to act as an addi- Celsius increase and a 10-perc de- tional drag on expansion of the irriga- crease in precipitationwithin the range tion base. To be sure, some land will of possible futures according to several become suitable for irrigation. But even leading climate models. They found that more will likely have to be retired. supplies in each of the seven basins It is probably conservative to assume dropped by 40-76 percent. In four of that water scarcity induced by climate themthe Upper and Lower Colorado, change will force irrigation to cease on 5 the Missouri, and the Rio Grandese- percent of the woi ld's existing ii rigated Saving Water for Aoculture (53) cropland. That would remove13million clining over the last decade. Perhaps hectares from the global base. At today's more important, new investments will be rate of expansion, it would take half a hostage to uncertainties about just how decade to recoup those losses. More- the climate is changing in a given locale. over, building the dams, canals, and Regional projections of soil moisture, other infrastructure to regain that loss evapotranspiration,runoff,andthe wouldrequiresupplementalinvest- other factors affecting water availability ments on the order of$26-52billion. are not accurate enough to be the basis (See Table3-4.) ofimportantinvestmentdecisions. In addition, some cropland now wa- Worse, it could be decades before scien- tered only by rain will need irrigation to tists' models acquire that degree of pre- replace soil moisture lost to the atmo- cision. sphere from the increased evapotranspi- On a brighter note, some existing irri- rationthathigher temperatureswill gated areas could benefit from increased bring. Peterson and Keller looked at the rainfall that boosts regional water sup- eastern United States, a region with little plies. Models suggest such a possibility permanent irrigation now, and con- for India, for example, where irrigated cluded that this increased need for new crop production is currently constrained irrigation could be substantial. If5per- by water scarcity.Additional runoff cent of the world's rainfed cropland re- could allow some irrigated lands to get quires irrigation to stay profitably pro- optimum water amounts instead of cur- ductive, even after farmers switch crops rent limited quantities, helping raise and make other adjustments, some 60 crop yields. But if the greater availability million more hectares of irrigated area of water comes in the form of intensified would be necessary. That would raise in- monsoons, as models also suggest could vestments to adapt to new climatic happen, it could be as much a curse as a regimes by$120-240billion, bringing blessing. Much of it would run off in cat- the total to roughly$150-300billion.52 astrophic floods rather than augmenting Whether such investments would ma- soil moisture and stable supplies.53 terialize is far from certain. As noted ear- On balance, it appears that as climate lier, lending for irrigation has been de- changes over the next20-30years irri- Table 3-4. Illustrative Irrigation Adjustments from Global Climate Change

Area Estimated Adjusunent Affected Investment Cost' (million hectares)(billion dollars) Shifting 5 percent of world's existing irrigated area 13 26-52 because of changes in water availability

Expanding irrigation to 5 percent of existing rainfed 60 120-240 cropland to compensate for increased evapotranspiration

Total 73 146-292 1Assumes range of $2,000-4,000 per hectare, costs in some areas could bc substantially higher. Costs were not discounted. souRcE: Worldwatch Institute (54) State of the !Valid 1990 gation is unlikely to be able to provide of the West's nrigated landmore than tilt degree of crop protection and yield 4 million Ileum esunder long-term enhancement the world now counts on. contracts (t) pically 40 y ears) at greatly For some time, a mismatch between the subsidized prices. Farmers benefiting cropland needing more water and that from the huge Cenu al Valley Project in getting it could dampen irrigation's con- California, for example, has e repaid tribution to global food supplies. only 5 percent of the project's costs ove, the last 40 years: $50 million out of $931 million. Largely because of this under- pricing, one third of the Bureau's water irrigates hay, pasture, and other low- STRATEGIES FOR THE value forage crops that are fed to live- NINETIES stock,eventhough so many other higher-valued activities need additional Securing water to meet the world's water.55 growing food needs sustainably will not be easy. The slowdown in irrigation growth, mounting environmental dam- As climate changes, irrigation is age from irrigation and from water pro- unlikely to be able to provide the jects venerally, worsening regional scarcities,and the prospects cclimate degree of crop protection and yie!d change all combine to severely constrain enhancement the world now counts water use for crop production. Togethei on. these trends point to the need for a more diverse approach to watering crops one that focuses on raising efficiency, on This free rid.- ,lso explains foi the integrating irrigation more fullywith most part why sc. feu western farme-s basic development goals, and on im- invest in efficiency improvement.... Hun- proving water's productivity in rainfed dreds of federal irrigation contracts will fa rm i n g. be coming up for renewal during the Much of the pervasive overuse and nineties, as noted earlier. If the Bureau mismanagement of water in agriculture seizes this opportunity to establish con- sterns frora the near-universal failure to tract terms that foster efficiency rather price it properly. Irrigation systems are than discourage it, uater stresses in the often built, operated, and maintained by American West could ease measurably. public agencies that charge next to noth- When prices reflect water's scarcity, ing for these services. Farmers' fees in vy hen the costs of obtaining water go up, Pakistan, for example, cover only about oi when governments regulate its use, 13 percent of the governmeneE costs. farmers begin to use the resource more Indeed, in most of the Third World, gov- prudently.Irrigators in Israel, parts of ernment revenues from irrigation ay er- the Soiet Union, and Texas have shown age no more than 10-20 yercent of the that they can boost their efficiencies dra- full cost of delivering v ..aer. Such under- matically by adopting modern technolo- charging depriv es agencies of the funds gies and better management practices. needed to keep canals and other infra- Large sprinklers tan be made more structure in good working orderr-i efficient, for instance, by vertical drop Pricing retorms are equally needed in tubes attached to the sprinklet arm. the United Statcs. The federal Bureau of Called lou-energy p1 ecision application Reclamation supplies water to a quarter (LEPA), these sy stems delis er water

C9 Saving flitter for Agriculture

closer to the ground and in large drop- tion and techniques to make betteruse lets, cutting evaporation losses. Farmers of rainwater can do much to increase can also conserve by using lasers to help food production at the village level level fields so that water gets listributed and to eliminate the need for expensive evenly, recycling used irrigation water, large dams with their attendant social installing water-thrifty drip systems, and and environmental costs. Smaller pro- monitoring soil moisture se they irrigate only when jects are decentralized, and focus on im- necessary. The average proving the productivity of water where amount of water applied per hectare by it falls, rather than transporting it great Texan farmers dropped 28 percent between 1974 and 1987 because they distances. In contrast to the top-down adopted LEPA and other efficiency character of large projects, they help mea- build local self-reliance and, because of sures. Similarly, upgrading of irrigation systems has reduced per-hectare with- their greater flexibility, tend to be more dra,vals in the Soviet Union by 30 per- responsive to farmers' needs as they percent since 1970.56 ceive them." In many developing countries, im- Simple techniques aimed at increasing proving the performance of canal sys- soil moisture in the root zones of crops tems is critical to boosting irrigated crop can markedly boost yields and make pro- yields closer to their potential. Involving duction more reliable.For instance, farmers in the layout, operation, and farmers can build check dams of earth management of the systems and provid- and stone to capture runoff from hill- inflexibility in the scheduling of water sides, and then channel this water to deliveries are effective steps toward this their fields. Similar forms of "water har- tad. Studies in the Philippines have vesting" allowed some ancient farming shown, for example, that wher farmers cultures to thrive where annual rainfall actively participate in tl.e planning and averagedonly 100millimeters (4 management of projects, canals and inches). Vetiver grass, known in itsna- tive India as khus, can increase sustaina- other infrastructure function bettei, a greater proportion of t' project area ble cropping on sloping land. When gets irrigated, and rice yiekis imrease planted along the contours of a hill:,. more.57 vetiver grass forms a vegetative barrier Variously called`;rrigation associa- tl'at slows runoff, allowing rainwater to tions" or "water user associations,"or- seep into the soil. Sediment trapped be- ganized groups of farmers w ho skit-,a hind it forms a terrace that furthercon- common water source can be instruinen- servessoil and moisturefolcrops. tal in their eflective inoktmer' *nd in Yields ha) e increased by half cm, er those collecting fees. The Philippines National in ,;milar areas not using this tech- Irrigation Agency now receivesno fed. nique." eral funding for operating and maintain- Although such doss n-to-eal thpi ac- ing irrigation sy stems: it dependson tices rarely get the ) isibility and fanfare revenues from the irrigation associa- afforded a large, new dam, they nonethe- tioas. This has made the agencymore less can produce the needed results. In responsive to farmets' needs wicl more Karnataka, India, for example, ass ater- apt to solicit their views. Similar ap- shed management effort involving some proaches are followed in China and 600,000 hectai esnearly a third of the South Korea, where canal systems tend cultivated areais based on low-cost to perform quite well." techniques that farmers can use to in- Greater attention to small-scale irriga- crease soil moisture in their fields. Crop- 70 (56) State of the World 1990 ping intensity reportedly doubled in the ipg greater emphasis to small, farmei project areas, to 220 percent.61 managed systems.Its experience has An analysis by the Environmental De- been that they are "more eionomical, fense Fund of Washington, D.C., show s easier to manage, and better targeted at that a variety of proven small-scale tech- the poor."63 niques collectively constitute a viable al- Tackling head-on the question of "ir- ternative to the irrigation component of rigation for whom and for what?" is par- the huge Sardar Sarovar Dam in western ticularly critical in Africa. For much of India, discussed earlier. Even the most the continent, irrigation will neyer work expensive small-scale methodswhich wonders the way it did in Asia. Water include small reservoirs to store rainfall, and irrigable land arc too scarce, and the percolation tanks to replenish ground- costs of developing water too high. Thus water, and check darns and microcatch- far, irrigation has tended to expand pro- ments to increase rainwater productiv- duction of higher-valued crops grow, n ityare estimated to cost less than half for export or urban consumption, not as much per hectare as irrigation with basic food crops.64 water from Sardar Sarovar would. Be- Projects that supplement rather than sides being cheaper, these alternatives replace traditional agricultural practices would allow water development benefits may be the most promising w ay to boost to be distributed more equitably, reduce water productiy ityin Africa oyer the construction time, give farmers more next couple of decades. African farmers' control over their supply, and promote cultiyation strategies tend to aim more local employment. They clearly deserve toward minimizing risks of crop failure a careful and objectiye examination by in bad years than maximizing y ields in Indian officials and the World Bank, good ones. For many, complete depen- which is helping fund Sardar Sarovar.62 dence on irrigation would increase risk, since spare parts and power to run the systems may not always be available or Small-scale irrigation and tech- reliable. Moreover, outside of Egypt and niques to make better use of rain- the Sudan, large-scale irrigation is for- water can do much to increase food eign to most African cultures and has the potential to alienate farmers rather than production at the village level. benefit them." An important test of integrating modern water management with traditional Besides directly funding more small- practices is njw under way in the Sene- scale projects, development organiza- gal River valley. Farmers there practice tions can help foster pri% ate initiatiYes by "flood-recession agriculture," an indig- giy ing small landholders access to credit enous cultiyation method used by mil- and by bolstering local industries that lions that involves planting crops on supply needed tools an, equipment. In riy er floodplains after seasonal flood- Bangladesh, the pi pgressive Grameen watersrecede. By engineering con- Bank is acquiring control of 100 tube- trolled floods, the reliability and produc- s% ells and then offering loans to groups tiYity of this method can be improved of five farmers who wish to buy one. The indeed, some say yield& can be doubled International Fund for Agricultural De- or tripledwithout incurring much of velopment, a 12-year-old U.N. agency the ecological damage, exorbitant cost, with an impressivetrackrecord,is and disruption of local traditions that among the global organizations now giy- full-scale irrigation often brings. At least

71 Saving Wain for Agricullule (57) until irrigation facilitiesare in place, the nation's total wastewater flow by the end Manantali Dam is being operated forop- of the decade.68 timum recession cropping of sorghum. A relatively inexpensiveway govern- The first controlled floodwas released in ments can buy insurance against future September 1988, and plans are to con- water constraints, especially in light of tinue them through 1993. If successful climatic change, is to increase funding and sufficiently high-yielding, this modi- of international agricultural research-en- fied version of traditional floodplainag- riculture could becomea permanent ters working to develop new strains of part of the darn's operations.66 crops. Plants that are more salt-tolerant, drought-resistant,and Restoring deforested watershedsur- water-efficient gently needs greater international assist- could play a vital part in securing ade- ance. Especially in tropical regions, a quate food supplies. (See Chapter 4.) large share of potentially usefulwater Research suggests that wheat, forone, is runs off in damaging floods, causing far a good candidate for breeding in greater more harm than good.Reforesting tolerance to salt. This could allow this mountainous catchments will help slow important grain to remain productiveon runoff, enhance the infiltrationof rain- salinized land where strainscommon water into the soil, and thereby increase today would not thrive.69 downstream groundwater supplies for Salicornia, a succulent,can be irri- the dry season. Revegetating watersheds gated with seawater and shows promise is especially important if,as some cli- as a substitute for thirsq fodder crops in mate models predict, tropical monsoons water-short regions. Its yield of oil seed begin striking with evengreater ferocity. compares well with soybeans, and it can An important step forward would be for contribute up to 10 percent ofa fodder the Asian Development Bank, the World mix f.):cattle, sheep, and other live- Bank, or another international bodyto stock. Developing new strains thatare work with the countries sharingthe sufficiently high-yielding and profitable Himalayan watei shedon a restoration to grow, however, takes ume. Greater plan for this badly degraded region.67 support for such effol ts now couldpay As fresh water becomes increasingly backhandsomelyin thedecades scarce, and as cities bid more supplies ahead." away from farmers, the use of treated No quick fix is going to solve agricul- urban wastewater for irrigation is likely ture's water problems any timesoon. to become commonplace. This returns Transforming crop productioninto a valuable nutrients to the land, where water-thrifty but still highly productive they belong, and helps keep themout of enterprise is a monumental task. Added rivers and streams, where they become up, the varied ways of using irrigation troublesome pollutants. Withproper water more efficiently and of increasing treatment, and with care in how and water productivity on rainfed landscan where reclaimed wastewater is applied, go a long way toward preventing water the practice can bc very beneficial. scarcity from undermining food security. Israel, with virtually nonew fresh But these diverse technologies andmea- sources to tap, is now reusing 35 percent sures will only spread widely if pricing of its municipal wastewater, generally policies, markets, regulations, and inter- for irrigation. Some 15,000 hectares, national development agenciespromote most of them cultivating cotton,are now them. irrigated V ' h the reclaimedwater. Cur- Ultimately, emerging scarcities and rent plans are to reuse 80 percent of the other water constraints callupon socie- (58) State of the World 1990 ties to slow the growth in :iuman num- Indian subcontinent. When something F bers and adjust their actiYities to water's so fundamental as water becomes scarce, natm al limits. Populations continue to only fundamental responses will suffice grow fastest in some of the sy orld's most Delaying action simph increases the water-short regions, notably northern risks that farmersand cropswill be Africa, the Middle East, and parts of the left high and dry. Feeding theWorld in the Nineties Lester R. Brown and JohnE.Young

As we enter the nineties, the worldhas shortfall-18 million tons below thepro- little to celebrate on the food front.Be- jected consumption of !,685 million tween 1950 and 1984, the world's farm- reduced depleted stocks ers raised world grain output 2.6-fo1d, even further. If stocks cannot be replenished inyears of an increase that dwarfed the efforts of all near-normal weather, whencan they previous generations combined. Since be?3 then, unfortunately, littleprogress has been made. The share of hungry and Rebuilding stocks dependson push- malnourished people in Africa, Latin ing production above consumption,a task thatis becoming more difficult. America, and parts of Asia hasin- creased) Growth in world food output is being Drought-damaged harvestsin key pro- slowed by environmental degradation,a ducing countries in1987 and 1988 worldwide scarcity of cropland and fill- brought world grain stocksto one of gation water, and a diminishingre- their lowest levelsin decadeshttle sponse to th .? use of additional chemical more than is needed to fill the "pipe- fertilizer. Meanwhile, the annual addi- line" from field to table. TheyAso tion to our numbers is naming above 90 brought world wheat prices in 1989up million people.4 by 48 percent from their all-time low of two years before. Rice prices, whichin 1986 reached their lowest point,were up 38 percent.2 With higher prices and better weather DEGRADATION AFFECTING in 1989, it was widely assumed thatpro- duction would surge upward and stocks HARVESTS would be rebuilt. But this didnot hap- Nearly all forms of global environmental pen. The 1989 world grain harvest degradation are adversely affecting food (6o) State of the World 1990 production: Soil erosion is slow!), under- Eacn year, the w irld's farmers lose an mining the producthity of an estimated estimated 24 billio -1 tons of topsoil from one third of the world's cropland. Defor- their cropland in e:'cess of new soil for- estation is leading to increased rainfall mation. During the eighties, this trans- runoff and crop-destroying floods. Dam- lated into a loss of 210 billion tons, an age to crops from air pollution and acid amount more than ba!f that on U.S. rain can be seen in industrial and devel- cropland.7 oping countries alike. Data from experi- Agronomist Harold Dregne has classi- mental plots indicate that yields of some fied agricultural land in each maj ,. zeo- crops, such as soybeans, are reduced by graphic region into one of three catego- the increased ultraviolet radiation as- riesaccordingtothedegreeof sociated with stratospheric ozone deple- degradation.Slightdegradationin- tion. Waterlogging and salinity are low- cludes all land where the yield potential ering the productivity of a fourth of the has been reduced by leFthan 10 per- world's irrigated cropland. (See Chapter cent; moderate erosion, land where it 3.) Global climate change in the form of has been reduced between 10 and 50 hotter summers may also be taking a percent; and severe erosion, a reduced to11.6 potential of more than 50 percent. All In this section, we attempt to estimate ,-egions have some severely degraded how much productive capacity the world land, but Africa, Asia, and South Amer- has lost through these many forms of ica have much more in this category than environmental degradation. We cannot North America and Europe do. (See present a detailed set of precise data on Table 4-1.) such crop losses, because such data do According to FAO, soil erosion could not exist. But we hope this presentation reduce agricultural production in Africa will help focus attention on how damag- by one fourtb between 1975 and 2000 if ing these environmental influences hav e conservation measures are not adopted. become, and that it will encourage the The shiftingcultivationtraditionally principal institutions involved in inter practiced in Africa to maintain soil fertil- national agricultural development, such ity has begun to deteriorate under high as the World Bank and the U.N. Food population densities as farmers return to and Agriculture Organization (FAO), to the same plot every 5-10 }ears instead of research theeffect of environmental waiting 20-25 years, as they used to.8 degradation on grain output. Reports of land degradation have Table 4-1. Estimated Land Degradation come from every corner of the planet. In in the Late Seventies July 1989, Australian Prime Minister ContinentSlight Moderate Severe Total Robert Hawke said that "none of Aus- tralia's environmental problems is more (percent of land sut face) serious than the soil degradation.. . A Inca 60 23 17 100 over nearly two-thirds of our continent's Asia 56 28 16 100 arable land." Pravda reports that the So- Australia '38 55 7 100 viet Union issuffering from a cata- Europe 69 25 6 100 strophic decline in soil fertility. Prime N. Amei ica 70 23 7 100 Minister Rajiv Gandhi has outlined the S. America 73 17 10 100 India ecological and economic crisis soutto, U S.Departnwnt of Agrlculture.Err). faces as the result of continuing defor- norm( Reward] Sell we, /1'orld.Igneldium Unahon estation and the associated degradation and Onilook Rrporl. Washington.I) C , June 1089. of land.6 based on data compiled by Harold F.. Di egne. Feeding the World in the Nineties As the fallowing cycle shortens and omitted. When river water diverted onto the land's vegetative cover diminishes, farmlandpei-colatesdownwaid and soil erosion and land degradation accel- there is no drainage, it gradually raises erate Gbdebo Jonathan Osemeobo of underground water tables. When these Nigeria's Federal Department of For- get close to the surface, water evaporates estry notes that "shifting cultivation has into the atmosphere, concentrating salts a 'catalytic' effect on the encroachment in the upper few inches of soil. of desert in the northern parts of Nige- In industrial and developing countries rianamely in Sokoto, Kano, Kaduna, alike, waterlogging and salinityarc low- Bauchi, and Borno states." He believes ering yields on an estimated 24 percent that this land is now only marginal for of the world's irrigated cropland. (See either forestry or farming.9 Chapter 3.) As with soil erosion, these The effect of topsoil losseson U.S. processes gradually lower land produc- land productivity has been well estab- tivity until eventually farming the land is lished by 14 studies oncorn and 12 on no longer profitable and it is abandoned. wheat. The former, done mostly in the Assuming an estimated 1-percent annual Corn Belt states, showed thata loss of decline in output on 24 percent of the one inch of topsoil reduced corn yields 180 million hectares of irrigated grain, by roughly 6 percent. Results for wheat, mostly rice and wheat, with anaverage taking an average for the 12 studies, also yield of 2.5 tons per hectare,an addi- showed a drop of 6 percent for each inch tional 1.1 million tons of grain output of topsoil lost." are lost each year. Alternatively, using Applying this to the world as a whole, the estimate by Soviet agronomist Victor the loss of 24 billion tons of topsoilan- Kovda of worldwide abandonment of nually (equal to one inch on 61 million 1-1.5 million hectares of irrigated land hectares) would reduce the grain harvest each year would yield an annual loss in of 146 million tons from thisarea by 6 grain output of 2.4-3.6 million tons. For percent (assuming the world average our tabulation, we use the lower figure yield of 2.4 tons per hectare),or 9 mil- of 1.1 million tons." lion ions per year. Alternatively, forpur- Deforestation affects food production poses of calculation, we could assume in several ways. It directly alters the local that all the topsoil (typicallyseven inches hydrological cycles by increasing runoff deep) was lost froal 9 million hectares, and, perhaps less obviously,, by affecting leading to the land's abandonment and the recycling of rainfall inland. The for- the loss of more than 21 milliontons of mer is now strikingly evident in the In- grain production per year. Choosing to dian subcontinent, where deforestation be conservative, we have included the of the Himalayan watersheds is raising lower estimate in our tabulation of envi- rainfall runoff, leading to increasingly ronmental losses of productivity.11 severe flooding. The area subject to an- Land is also being degraded by chang- nual flooding in India has more than tri- ing soil chemistry, as risingconcentra- pled since 1960. (See Table 4-2.) tions of salt in irrigated soils reduce har- Thisprocesswagalsotragically vests on some of the world's most demonstrated in early September 1938, intensively farmed land. (These issues when two thirds of Bangladeshwas are discussed in more detail in Chapter under waterforseveraldays. This 3.) In the haste to complete irrigation floodthe worst on recorddamaged projects from 1950 to 1980, the drain- the country's fall rice crop, increasing its age facilities essential to the long-term need to import grain." success of these systems were frequently As long as deforestation continues, (62) State of the World 1990 Table 4-2. India: Area Subject subject come, from a seven-year study to Flooding jointly sponsored by the U.S. Environ- mental Protection Agency and the U.S. Year Aiea Department of Agriculture (USDA). The (million hectal es) report ,:oncluded that ozone, sulfur dioxide, and nitrous oxides are the most 1960 19 93 dz.maging air pollutants in the United 1970 States." 1980 49 Of these pollutants, ozone does by far 1984 59 the most damage. Crops are incredibly sotRCtCello e fur Suence and Enuronment. 7 he sensitive to minute amounts of ground- ll'iath of Yature The Impact of Environmental Destruc- level ozone, amounts measured in parts tion on Floods and Droughts (New Delhi: 1987). permillion(ppm).Asground-level firewood will become ever more scarce, ozone rises above the naturally occur- forcing villagers to burn more cow dung ring 0.025 ppm, damage begins to show and crop residues. This deprives the soil at 0.05 ppm if this exposure level lasts not only of nutrients, but also of the or- for more than 16 days of a growing sea- ganic matter thathelps maintain a son, at 0.10 ppm if it lasts for 10 days or healthy soil structure. One region for more, and at 0.30 if it lasts 6 days or which data are available, the state of more. The potential for damage is evi- Madhya Pradesh in central India, is al- dentinthe readings from some 70 widely scattered sites across the United ready far down this road: of the three States where average ozone concentra- principal cooking fuels used by its 62 tions for the season ranged from 0.038 million people, cow dung accounts for ppm to0.065. Surprisingly, damage 9.6 million tons, firewood 9.5 million from ozone occurred in sparsely popu- tons, and crop residues 6.9 million tons. lated rural areas as well as in densely Similar pressures are draining the land populated urban ones." of pro...ctivity in other Indian states, in Experimentally increasing ozone con- Bangladesh and Pakistan, in scores of centrations from 0.04 ppm to 0.09 ppm African countries, and in China." as a seasonal average reduced yields of crops rather dramatically. For corn, the loss went from 1 percent at 0.04 ppm to Damage to crops from air pollution 13 percent at 0.09 ppm. For soybeans, can now be measured in autcmo- from 7 percent to 31 percent. And for bile-centered societies and coal- winter wheat, from 4 percent to 27 per- burning economies. cent. Ground-level ozone at levels that prevailed during the eighties led to an estimated U.S. crop loss of at least 5 percent, and possibly as much as 10 per- Researchers have only recently identi- cent." fied two other threats to future food se- Using the lower figure of 5 percent for curity: cars and coal-fired power plants. ozone damage and ignoring the harm Damage to crops from air pollution can caused by other air pollutants, the 1987 now be measured in the automobile-cen- grain harest for the most se erely af- tered societies of Western Europe and fected regionsNorth America, Europe the United States and 'n the coal-burn- (excludingtheSovietUnion),and ing economies of Eastern Eui ope and Chinaof 913 million tons was reduced China. Much of what we know about this by 48 million metric tons. Since most of Feedingthe Worldinthe Nineties (63) the growth in fossil fuel burning, the that projected for the earth as a whole. source of the pollutants, has occurred This unevendistributionis illaffect over the last 40 years, we assume growth worldagricultz...-edisproportionately, in the annual loss is roughly 1 million since most food is produced on the land tons.18 masses in the middle and higher lati- While ground-level ozone reduces tudes of the northern hemisphere 2 1 harvests, depletion of the ozone layer in Agricultureisaffectedby climate the upper stratosphere and the resulting change in innun erable ways. Hotter rise in ultraviolet radiation reaching the summers lead to more eaporation dur- earth's surface also may be taking a toll, ing the growing season, ii,creasing the particularly of the more sensitive crops, likelihood of drougt.t. Th9 effects of such as soybeans. A U.S. government higher temperatures on lgrkult,'re have panel measured the worldwide loss of so far focused mostly on so.1 moisture stratospheric ozone at roughly 2 percent and drought-related conditions, butex- from 1969 to 1986. For each 1-percent treme heat can interfere with the poina- loss of stratospheric ozone, the ultravio- tion of staple food crops. Corn pollina- let radiation reaching the earth increases tion can easily be impaired by high by 2 percent. Data from experimental temperatures during the 10-day period plots indicate that each 1-percent in- when fertilization occurs. Alan crease in ultraviolet radiation lowers Teramura of the University of Maryland soybean yields by a like amount. This reports that even a rise of 2 degrees Cel- suggests that depletion of the strato- siusin summertime temperaturesin spheric ozone layer may now be reduc- some key Asian rice-growing regions can ing measurably the output of the world's sharply reduce harvests.22 leading protein crop; unfortunately,no In 1988, the hottest yearin the last one is monitoring this loss to determine century, each of the world's three lead- its precise dimensions." ing food producers suffered a reduction Of all the global changes we haveset inharvest asaresult of heat and in motion, climate changeis potentially drought: the U.S. grain harvestwas the most disruptive. Already suffering down from its 1987 level by 27 percent from slower growth in food output the (74 million tons), the Soviet harvest by 8 world is now confronted with thepros- percent (16 million tons), and the Chi- pect of hotter summers. The drought- nese harvest by 2 percent (7 million and heat-damaged U.S. grain harvest in tons). No one can say for sure whether 1988, which fell beim consumption fDr any of this 97-million-ton drop was due the first time in history, dramatically il- to the buildup of greenhouse gases, but lustrated how hotter summers may affect the summer of 1988 was the kind ofsea- agriculture over the longer term.2° son that global meteorological models Climate change will not affect all coun- project will occur with increasing fre- tries in the same way. The projected quency as heat-trapping gases continue rises of 2,5-5.5 degrees Celsius (4.5-9.9 to accumulate in the atmosphere. Crop degrees Fahrenheit) by late in the next losses from the hotter summers that ale century are global averages. But temper- in prospect seem likely to far offset the atures are expected to increase much gains. more in thc middle and higher latitudes In summary, we have a lot moreto and more over land than over the learn about the effects on world agricul- oceans. They are pi ojected to change lit- ture of these various forms of environ- tle near the equator, while in the higher mental degradation. Soil erosion, the latitudes risrs could easily be double waterlogging and salinLation of irri- (64) State of the World 1990 gated land, flooding, air pollution, acid output an av erage 1.5 tons pet hectare rain, stratospheric ozone depletion, and ahoy e its prey ions ley el, then more than hotter summers may all be taking a 3 million tons of grain is added to the growing toll on food production. We es- world harvest each year. The 3 million timate that the world could be losing 14 more tons of fertilizer used each year million additional tons of grain output (assuming that each ton of fel tilizer each year because of this damage to land raises output by 7 tons) adds another 21 and crops. (See Table 4-3.) And this million tons. If we generously allow an- clos not include any allowance for the other 5 million tons of added output per effects of hotter summers, such as those year from other sources, the total gain is experienced during the eighties and pro- 29 million tons.23 jected for the nineties. Stated otherwise, if there were no additional investments in agriculture or technological progress, The world could be losing 14 mil- the world grain harvest would fall 14 lion additional tons of grain output million tons annuallynearly 1 percent a yearas a result of environmental deg- each year because of damage to radation. land and crops. The key question is, How does this loss compare with the gains from greater investment in irrigation, fertilizer, and Subtracting the 14 million tons we es- other inputs? If we assume that the timate are lost each y ear from environ- newly Irrigated land of 2.3 million hect- mental degradation therefore leaves a ares per year during the eighties boosts net gain in output of 15 million, well Table 4-3. Crude Estimate of Additional Loss of World Grain Output Each Year as a Result of Environmental Degradation Grain Form of Degradation Output Loss (million tons) Land Degradation Soil erosion 9 Waterlogging and salting of irrigated land

Loss of soil organic matter from burning cow dung and crop lesidue 1

Shortening of shifting cultnation cycle 1 21

Compaction of soil from heavy equipment 1

Crop Damage Air pollution

Flooding 1 Acid rain I

Increased ultraviolet radiation 1

Total 14 'Because the lack of data makes it MIRA u quantM the crop losses from these thieeSOURes, their effect is estimated collectiveB. SOURCE: Worldwatch Institute estimates.

341*, Feeding the World In the Nineties (65) below the 28 million tons requiredto cent since 1977. Fearing similar losses, merely keeppacewithpopulation the United States adopted a five-year growth. In effect, this shows a net gain in plan beginning in 1986 to plant 40 mil- grain output of just under 1percent per lion acres (16 million hectares) ofrapidly year while population growth is close to eroding cropland to grassor trees 2 percent. This does not allow forany before it became wasteland. By mid- rises in demand from rising affluence. 1989, 32 million acres were committed, This offsetting effect of pressureson the but budget-cutting congressionalcom- environment may partly explain why the mitteeslooking primarily at short-term growth in world grain output has slowed costseliminated funding for further so dramatically recently. additions to the program.26 Worldwide, the potential for profitably expanding cultivated area is limited. A few countries, such as Brazil, will be able to add new cropland. Buton bal- LAND, WATER, AND ance, gains and losses in the nineties are likely to largely offset each other,as they FERTILIZER did during the eighties. As a result, the From the beginning of agriculture until global decline in grain area perperson mid-century, growth in the world's cul- from 0.16 hectares in 1980 toan es- tivated area more or less keptpace with timated 0.14 hectares in 1990seems cer- that of population, but starting around tain to continue. (See Table 4-4)27 1950 it slowed to a crawl. After actually The prospectforexpandingthe falling in the mid-eighties, growth in world's gross irrigated areaisonly cropland has recovered somewhatas the slightly more promising. After growing United States returned to production slowly during the first half of thiscen- some land previously idled under agri- tury, the irrigated area increased from 94 million hectares in 1950 to 236 mil- culturalsupplymanagementpro- gramsY lion in 1980, as investment in irrigation soared in both large-scale river-diver- Each year millions of hectares ofcrop- sion projects and farmer-owned irriga- land are lost either because the land isso tion pumps using groundwater. This severely eroded it is not worth plowing expanded the gross irrigatedarea per anymore or because new homes, facto- person by 43 percent. (See Table 4-5.) ries, and highways are builton it. Losses By1980,however, mostofthe are most pronounced in the densely economically attractive sites for large ir- populated, rapidly industrializingcoun- rigation reservoirs had been developed, triesof EastAsia, including China, and the number of newly completedpro- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, where jects dwindled. The expansion in world nonfarm uses claim roughly a half-mil- irrigated area slowed dramatically, fall- lion hectares of cropland each year.25 ing behind population growth. As itcon- Other large, densely populatedcoun- tinues to slow, the gains fromnew capac- tries suffering losses include India and ity may be largely offset by losses from Mexico. Both the Soviet Union and the waterlogging and salinity, falling water United States are pulling back fromrap- tables, and the silting of existingreser- idly eroding land. Abandonment of such voirs discussed earlier. cropland plus an increase in alternate- With the net gain in world irrigated year fallow to maintain yields has re- land estimated at only 23 million hect- duced the Soviet grain area some 13per- ares during the eighties, the irrigated 80 (66) State of the Woild 1990 Table 4-4. World Grain land, Total and Per Capita, 1950-80, With projections to 2000

Per Capita Total Per Capita Change Year Gramland Grain land By Decade (million hectares) (hectares) (percent) 1950 593 0 23 1960 651 0.21 8 1970 673 0.18 15 1980 724 0 16 11 1990 720 0.14 16 2000 720 0.12 15 sot_ RuEs Gram land 1950-80 from U S Di partment of .sgric ulture (USDA), Economic Research Sers Ile (FAS), II Odd GUMHanT.1ted bea. M44, lion, and I add, 1950-88(unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C. 1989), 1990 and 2000 figui es ale authors' estimates, pci capita figures dcrised from population data (bawd on data from U S Bureau of the Census) in Francis Urban and Philip Rose. IImid Population b.) Countr) and Repon, 1950-86, and Thojearom to 2000(Washington, D.C. USDA. ERS. 1988). figures are rounded, with calculations based on original unrounded data. area per person shrunk by close to 8 per- in a finite physical environment. It is also cent over the last decade. Although the a trendthat describes the historical cropland area per person has been falling growth of cropland area, with the trend steadily since mid-centui y,this trend of leveling off during the eighties. In this shrinking irrigated area per person is case, the trend has made the final turn new, making this the first decade in which on the S and has flattened out. both have declined. This, too, may help This S-shaped curve pattern is partic- explain the markedly slower growth of ularly familiar to biologists who chart the food production during the late eighties. growth of various organisms in finite en- The growth pattern in total irrigated vironments. As a laboratory exercise, bi- area (see Figure 4-1) conforms to what ology students learn about the concept is ki,;v.n as the S-shaped growth curve, by watching the increase of a population which describes well any growth process of fruit flies in a jar or of algae in a petri dish when they are given all the food Million they need. At first growth is slow, as a Hectares few organisms reproduce. Then it accel- 250 erate, until some constraint such as the physiological stresses associated with 2G0 high density or the accumulation of waste begins to slow it, eventually bringing it to a halt. 150 We kwliat the rise in grain yield per Ictare, like any biological growth 100 proces in a finite environment, will also eventually conform tothe S-shaped 50 growth curve. What we do not know is how close grain yields in agriculturally advanced countries now are to the final 1900 1920 1940 1%0 1980 2000 turn on theS.Interestingly,world Flgure 4-1. %%odd Net Irrigatea Area, 1900-37 growth in the use of inputs that are rais-

C l. Feeding the World in the Mnettes (67) Table 4-5. World Gross IrrigatedArea, Total and Per Capita, 1950-80, With Projections to 2000

Total Per Capita Per Capita Irrigated Irrigated Change Year Cropland Cropland By Decade (million hectares) (hectares) (pet cent) 1950 94 0.037 1960 136 0.045 1970 +22 188 0.051 +13 1980 236 0.053 + 4 1990 259 0.049 2000 8 279 0 045 8 SOURCES. Data for 1950-80 adapted or derned fromW. Robert Rangelej, Washington. D C communication. June 1089, and from U N Food . private and Agriculture Orgarmation,FAD Thoductron )embook 1988(unpublished printout) (Rome 1989):projections for 1990 and 2000 are Worldbakh Institute esnmatec, per capita figures derived from population data (basedon data from U S. Bureau of the Census) in Francis Urban and Philip Rose, World Population by Country and Region, 1950-86, and Projeetionsto 2000 (Washington, D C U.S Department of Agriculture,Economic Research Service, 1088) ing yieldsfertilizers and high-yielding Rapid growth in fertilizeruse depends varieties, as well as irrigation--are all therefore on the continued spread of conforming tothe S-shaped growth high-yielding seeds. But the adoption of curve as the nineties begin. these newly introducedcrop varieties From mid-century on, the increasing also follows an S-shaped trend. Their use of chemical fertilizer has been the use by farmers increases slowly at first, engine powering the growth in world as a few innovative growers plant them, food output. Between 1950 and 1989, and then more rapidly as large numbers world fertilizer use climbed 6om a mea- of farmers see their advantage. Eventu- ger 14 million tons to an estimated 143 ally, adoption slows and levels offas the million tons. If for somereason fertilizer new strains are planted on all suitable use were abruptly discontinued, world land. food output would probably plummet The adoption curve for high-yielding some 40 percent or more.28 wheats in India, which helpedto double The contribution of the othertwo thc wheat harvest between 1965and yield-raising inputsirrigation and 1972, illustrates this well. (See Figure high-yielding varietiesderives heavily 4-2.) These new strainsare unlikely to from their ability to boost the effective- reach all wheat-growingareas because ness of fertilizer. Hybrid corn, which was much of what is left is semiaridland initially developed in the United States where the new varieties donot fare well. and has since spread throughout the Graphs on the use of high-yieldingcorn world, was widely adopted because itre- in the United States, of high-yielding sponded readily to heavy applicationsof rices in Indonesia, and of high-yielding nitrogen fertili7er. Third World farmers wheats in Mexico all show thesame 5- switched from traditional varietiesto the shaped curve.29 high-yielding dwarf wheats and rices that Once the new fertilizer-responsiveva- defined the Green Revolution precisely rieties are planted on all suitable land, because the new varieties wereso re- growth m fertilizer use also slows. Such sponsive to fertilizer. a trend is now apparent in some major (68) State of the IVGrld 1990 food-producing countries. After quintu- rise of crop yields wiP be imposed by the pling between 1950 and 1981, fertilizer -apprr limit of pho, synthetic efficiency, use in the United Stat -s hs ailen some- a limit set by the basic laws of physics what, and was slightly lower in 1989 than and chemistry. As the genetic potential when the decade began. Witnin the So- of high-yiAding varieties approaches viet Union, where heavy sub:: _hes of fer- this level, the response of crops to the tilizers have led to their overuse, the use oi addit'onal fertilizer diminishes. move toward world market prices as part Advances in olant breeding, inctuding of the recent agricultural reforms is those using biotechnology, can help Rely to actually reduce fertilizer a.-;e in yieldsrise toward the photosynthetic the years ahead.3° but there is liiie hope of altering Many eeveloping countries are now the basic inechanics of photosynthesis. also experiencing diminishing return3 in fertilizer use. Both China and India have grain-fertilizer response ratios very similar to :hat of the Uni-ed States, suggesting that future growth in fertilizeuse BIOTECHNOT.OGY: A LIMITED will be much siower. And given the dependence of fertilizer use on water avail- CONTRIBUTION ability, the reduced growth in irription rh-andiose daims abnut biotechnology documenter' ---lier is almost certain to and food production have been common affect fertilizei use as well. Fertilizer ese since the first succes..ful attempts at ge- will continue to expand as varieties with netic engineering in the eariy seventies. an even greater yield potential are developed, but where yields are already high As recently as 1984, one writer predi,ted by international standards, the output that "in 5 to 10 years, Saudi Arabia may gains are likely to be modest compared look like the rb A fieldr of Kanas." with the quantum jump that came from The unfortunate reality in 1989when the initial adoption of high-yielding vari- Kansas lost over a third of its wheat crop eties." to droughtwas that the wheat fields of The ultimate natural constraint on the Kansas came to resemble the still-fallow Saudi Arabian desert.32 Biotechnology has pi oved more difficult to apply to agriculture than its champions expected. It will not revulu- tionizeagriculture overnightbutit could be an important new weapon in the fight against hunger. To realistically gauge biotechnology's potential to help close the widening gap between the growth in world food supplies and that in human numbers, two Source Agency for yJestions must be answered. First, is the International new biologytechnicallycapableof Development sharply boosting agricultural yields

2000 particularly those of the cereal crops that 1965 1970 1980 1990 feed most of the world's peopleto a Figure 4-2. Share of Wheatland Planted to HIgh-YIeldIng Varledes In India, 1965-83 degree comparable to the increases of

E3 Feeding the World in the Nineties (69) the past four decades? And second,are known about the basic cellprocesses of the institutions now engaged in biotech- animals than of plant., and because nology research likely to achieve the human healthproductsareusually breakthroughs needed to help feed the tested firv in animals. Although theso- world's hungry? cial impacts, safety, and long-termper- It is difficult to overstate the revolu- formance of some of the new animal bio- tionary nature of the biological discover- technologiesai equite controversial, ies c: the last two decades. Theassort- they are advancing rapidly, withsome mer tof techniquesreferredtoas already commercialized.35 biotechnology is opening new frontiers But plantsthe ultimate source of all in areas from manufacturingto health foodhave been far less responsiveto care to pollution cleanup. Biotechnol- biotechnologicalmanipulation. From ogy has moved rapidly from universities the outset, it was molecular biologists into the laboratories and factories of 'n- and other scientists unfamiliar with agri- dustry. Like most revolutionarytecn- culture and plant breeding who were nologies, it has its strengths and weak- most bullish on crop biotechnology. nesses,andpresentsanarrayof Most agricultural scientists have rightly potential difficulties as diverseasits remained skeptical.36 promises. Genetic engineeringthe direct transfer of genes, which encode all life Plantsthe ultimate source of all processes, from one organism to an- otheris the best-known and most fun- foodhave been far lessrespon- dameatal of the new biological tech- sive to biotechnological manipula- niques.Tissueculture,anolder tion. technology that has advanced tremen- dously in recent years, is particularly important in plant biotechnology because Dr.NormanBorlaug,theplant it allows whole plants to be generated breeder whose high-yielding wheatswon from single cells or small samples of tis- him a Nobel Prize, recently pointee sue 33 that "the most productive applia.nts In livestock production, a number of of biotechnology and molecularg net- new techniques may allow biotechnol- ics, in the near term,appear to be in ogy to live up to its technical promise. medicine, animal sciences, and microbi- Hormones that speed and increase live- ology.... It will likely take considerably stock weight gain per unit of feed longer to develop biotechnologicalre- that increase the milk production of search techniques that will dramatically dairy cows can now be mass-produced improve the production of ourmajor by genetically altered bacteria. Similaily, crop species."" veterinary vaccines and drugscan be Difficulties with identifying thegene made by microbes, and genetic tech- or genes that code for particular crop niques are allowing the quick and inex- characteristics,the unpi edictablege- pensive diagnosis of many animal dis- netic variation that oftenoccurs with eases.Livestockbreeding may be gene transfer, and problems 1,ith tissue speeded up and made more consistent culture have all slowed the application of by a variety of techniques involvingma- biotechnolc Ay to crops. Cerealslike all nipulation of sperm and ova.34 grasseshave been particularly resistant Animal biotechnology has moved :Or- to genetic manipulation: they are not ward quickly because muchmore is compatible with the bacterium most (70) State of the Woild 1990 commonly used to introduce foreign ment funds are spent on basic research, genes into plant cells, and they are dif- ss hile applied reseal( h is now often the ficult to regenerate from altered cells. pros ince of industry or industry-sup- Only in1988did scientists succeed in ported university laboratories.4i transferring a foreign gene into a cereal At the international lesel, the Consul- crop, corn.38 tative Group cInternational Agricul- Furthermore, once genes are trans- tural Research (CGIAR)the principal ferred,conventionalbreedingtech- international crop research organization niques must still be used to esaluate the funded b) gosernmentsdevoted only altered plants and make them suitable an estimated $11.6 million(5percent of for distribution to farmers or for further its1989operating budget of $229 mil- breedaig. The entire processfrom lion) to biotechnology research. Of this, gene transfer to dissemination of a new, more than tss o thirds was devoted to ani- varietycan take as long as conven- mal research and less than a third to tional breeding (typically5-15years). plants.42 The new biotechnologies will allow sci- U.S. biotechnology companies are entists to specify the gfmetic structure of fond of describing miracle crops that will plants with increasing precision, but feed hungry millions, and often use the theywill complementnot replace p. mnise of such immense benefits to at- plant breeding." tract investors and justify minimal regu- Nonetheless. cons entional breeding is lation. But the application of biotechnol- hmited toreproductiselycompatible ogy in the rich nations may not yield the species. Genetic engineering can by pass rather prosaic miracles needed by small the reproductive barriers between spe- farmers ileveloping countries. Corpo- cies, giving piant biceders access to a rations wii, use biotechnology to de- new urns erse of genetic material. As the %clop crops and agricultural products science advances, desirable qualities of they expect to be profitable and, if possi- unrelated plants will become as ailable ble, which they can patent. Much of their for transfer into crop species. Drought effort, for example, is now focused on tolerance, nitrogen fixation, salt toler- fruits and segetables and on expensive ance, and resistance to pests and disease flavoring and sweetener crups.43 are but a few often-mentioned possibili- Several of the larger agrichemical ties.40 firms see the most potential profit in sell- But it takes money to rnove genes. ingfarmersintegratedpackagesof Economics and national and intert- seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides. In con- tional policies will determine whet. junction with subsidiary or affiliated biotechnology can achiese its techn seed companies. they are coinbining re- potential to provide more food foi a search on chemicals and plants, develop- hungry world. ing crop varieties that will be compatible Most of the money now going into sv:i'their own products. Although pest biotechnology research comes not from and disease resistance are commonly public or philanthropic ot ganizations touted as major goals in corporate crop but from multinational corporations. In development programs, resistance to the United States, industry spent an es- herbicideswhich will in fact increase timated $300 million on agricultural bio- the me thr.se chemicalsis receising technology research in1987.The U.S. R&D prio-ity 44 Department of Agricukure spent$85 Chemical herbicides substitute for till- million on such work in the same year age, the traditional method of control- and an increasing share of such govern- ling weeds; they increase crop yields Feeding the Woild in the .Vineties (70 only if previous weed control methods on i esistance to viral diseases in tobacco, were inadequate. No-till farmingwhich tomato, and other species has yielded means fewer tractor tripsthrough a techniques useful for developing similar farmer's fieldcan substantiall) reduce resistance in Third Worldcrops such as fuel use and soil erosion, but its reliance cassav.-., )ields of which are widely re- on herbicides poses greater risk of con- duced by viruses." taminated groundwater and ldverse effects on wildlife. Some herbicidesare toxic or carcinogenic, and quesdonsre- Allowing corporations to gainex- main about the safety of even the "new- clusive rights to the discoveries of generation" herbicides.45 university scientists hasa chilling Moreover, herbicides offer littleto farmers in developing countries, where effect on the exchange of scientific most of the world's hungry people live. information. Hand weeding is chcaper, because labor is both abundant and inexpensive, and it is safer than using chemicals. Herbicides Thus, public funding for applied bio- make economic sense in high-capitalag- technology research is c g.tremely impor- riculture and when labor costsare high; tant at both the national )nd the interna- inmost developing-country farming tional level.linforti nately,public areas, the opposite situation exists.46 budgets for applied researchare inade- Similarly, bovine growth hormone quate and shrinking even in the coun- (BGH)one of the first animal biotech- trieswhere biotechnology was pio- nology products to be commercialized, neered." and one that can increase cows' milk The danger of relinquishing this tech- production by as much as 10-25per- nolor to the private sector is that the centis not a practical technology for privatesectorwillsetthe research most livestock ownersinthe Third agenda. Public money has directly and World. At roughly $100per cow, BGH indirectly supported the1/clop-tient of will cost as much peryear as many peo- biotechnology in public ii.stitutions. Al- lowing corporations to gain exclusive ple in developing countries spendon food. In addition, treated animals will rights to the discoveries of university sci- require large, high-quality, consistent entists in return for marginal contribu- rations of feed, and frequent injec- tions to the total research budget hasa chilling effect on the exchange of scien- tions--hardly a practical technique in tific inform. 'on and genetic materials, countries where vaccinations of humans and skews research priorities.50 for infectious diseases are still far from Theinternational routine.47 agriculturalresearch centersthe institutionsmolt Corporate biotechnology research is likely to address the needs of farmers in likely to lead to useful products for de- developingcountries.alsodeserve veloping countries only ifgovernments, more support. CGIAR centers already private foundations, and international use biotechnology techniques such as agencies have the opportunityand the genetic probes, cell fusion, and tissue fundingto license corporate technolo- culture to detect plant diseases, intro- gies. Ironically, such spinoffsare only duce diseat e resistance into existingva- likely to occur in crops for whichcorpo- rieties, and 7reate disease-free plants for rations perceive little economic market. distribution to farmers. But suchre- For example, corporate-funded research search is only a small part of their overall (72) State of the it'olld 1990 international research, education, and manipulation will be lost. Biotechnology extension effort.51 can move genes, but its ability to create Most important in international agri- them is virtually nonexistent. cultural research is a clear vision of priorities. Through their experience with the Green Revolution's successes and failures, the CGIAR centers are far better equipped than the private sector to THE SOVIET AGRICULTURAL develop crops and agricultural products that help feed the hungriest people PROSPECT rather than exacerbating existing nutri- Effortstoidentify possible dramatic tional inequities. gains in world food output in the near Ideally, the CGIAR system could de- future often focus on the Soviet Union velop new crop varieties, work with sci- because of its recently announced pro- entists in non-CGIAR international re- gram to reform agriculture by shifting to search centers, and train scientists from a market-oriented farm economy, with developing countries in biotechnology, prices keyed to those of the rest of the thus improving national and regional world. Expectations are high for two rea- crop development programs. This is al- sons: the frequently made comparison ready happening to some extent, but ad- between the productivity of private plots ditionalsupportforagricultural-e- and of state farms, and the record-set- rch is needed. The weakest links in ting gains in China's agricultural output the chain are between the international after reforms were adopted there a researchcenters,developing-country decade ago. (See Figure 4-3.) governments, and the farmers they ulti- Comparisons of the productivity on mately serve.52 private plots with that of state farms are Controversy over genetic resources often more ideological than analytical, and their control could impede the de- and hence misleading in severalre- velopment of biotechnology for devel- spects. First, private plots often grow oping countries. Realizing that the genes specialty crops, rather than staples. Mea- from native plants may be used to de- suring the productivity of a household velop substitutes for their exports or be sold back to them in new products at Milhon high prices, developing countries have Tons reluctantto 403 become understandably Source. US Dept allow unrestricted access to their genetic of Agriculture heritage. Though direct compensation China schemes may be impracticalitis only 300- just that industrial nations support development of biotechnology to feed the 200 Third Worldin full partnership with ov,

those countries.53 1" Soviet Union Furthermore, all private and public 100 efforts in biotechnology will be under- mined if the current wave of plant and animal extinctions goes unchecked. If the diversity of both crop and noncrop 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 species is not safeguarded, much of the Figure 4-3. Grain Output in the SovietUton_____In raw material now available for genetic and China, 1950-89

o c.) Feeding the World in the .Vrneties (73 ) garden plot on a Montana ranch against Another key difference is the rate of that of its wheat fields would yieldcom- fertilizer use. In both counti ies, reforms parative data similar to those frequently invok e moving toward w odd market cited for the Soviet Union. The garden prices for agricultural inputs and farm plot, carefully tended and watered witha products. Once these prices arc estab- garden hose and producing strawber- lished, the use of fertilizer w ill be ad- ries, tomatocs, and lettuce, wouldget a Ristedto maximize profits. Farmers return per hectare many times that of the throughout the world facing the same surrounding wlat fields. crop prices and fertilizer costs will use Regarding the second source of hope, similar amounts of feitilizer under simi- it is true that the agricultural reforms lar conditions. Because fertilizeruse in launched in China more than a decade the mid-seventies in China was low by ago and those recently set in motion in international standards, the reformsre- the Soviet Union have a commonpur- sulted in a sharp jump. accompanied by poseto raise output by strengthening an impressive increase in grain output of the link between effort and reward. But nearly half between 1976 and 1984.54 there are several key differences. Many In contrast, fertilizer use in the Soviet Chinese working on the land today Union is already hem y due to high subsi- managed family farms before the collec- dies. The extent of ovc: use can beseen tivization that followed the revolution in in thefe, ulizer-grain response ratios 1949. Since the Soviet revolutionoccur- there compared with other grain-pro- red much earlizsr, few people in that ducing countries. In the United States, country remember how private farms China, and India, where pricesat e keyed operate in a market economy. to the world market, farmers get 16 to 18 Given the enormous size of Sovietag- tons of grain for every ton of fertilizer ricultural operations today, those who used. (See Table 4-6.) In the Soviet work on state and collective farmsoc- Union, farmers get 8 tons of grain for cupy highly specializedroles. Some each ton of fertilizer. drive tractors. Others milk cows. Some As Soviet agriculture moves toward are bookkeepers. Others are mechanics the adoption of world marketprices, the responsible for equipment maintenance. amount of fertilizer that can be profita- A few people at the senior management bly applied is likely to decline. Indeed, level have some understanding of all partial withdrawal of fertilizer subsidies phases of agricultural production and actually reduced fel ttlizer use insome marketing, but they are in the minority. Soviet republics in 1988. A furtherre- Farming requires an understanding of duction of subsidies in 1989 appears to many things: land management, plant have lowered fertilizer use nationwide. pathology, animal nutrition, agricultural Although this did not measurably lower mechanics, and marketing, to cite a few. production, it does mean that the princi- Most Soviet farm workers lack thisrange pal source of the growth in China's grain of skills. output following the reforms wili :'ot be In contrast to agriculture in China, operating at all in the Soviet Union.55 farming in the Soviet Union is highly Nor is there likely to be much growth mechanized, using heavy equipment not in nct irrigated area in the Soviet Union suited for family-sized production units. in the years ahead. Barring the unlikely Time will be required to "tool up" prospect of reviving the plan to divert manufacturing facilities to producc farm southward the rivers that empty into th equipment more suited to smaller fam- Arctic Sea, there is little hope of much ily-farm units. irrigation expansion. (See Chapter 3.) (74) State oj ihe World 1990 Table 4-6. Grain Production and Fertilizer Use in World's Four Leading Grain-Producing Countries, 1986

Grain Feitilizer Grain Produced Per Country Production Use Ton of Fertilizer (million tons) (tons) China 300 16.9 18 India 137 8 5 16 Soviet Union 202 25.4 8 United States '314 17.8 18 IF/tilt/ Glair+ SOURCESGrain pi oduction from U S Department of Agi iculture, Economic Research Sen. Ice, Harvested Area, Prodwaon, and }Wel, 1950-88 (unpublished pc intout(Washington, 1) C1989), fel hhier use from U.N Food and Agriuiltui c Organuation,10 Quayterls Bulletin of Statistio. VolI, No S. 1988 Soviet agriculture is al.o plagued by Difficulties w ith the irrigation complex its extreme northerly location. Moscow around the Aral Sea, which accounts for lies at roughly the same latitude as Can- nearly 40 percent of Soviet irrigated ada's Hudson Bay, and Leningrad is ac- land, may eventually cause the irrigated tually in line with southern Alaska. The area in this region to contract." nation's climatic regime in terms of soils, But the m(. serious threat to agricul- rainfall, and solar intensity is thus much tural productn.ty may well be soil ero- moic. iimilar to Canada's than to that in sion and land degradation. With the the United States.56 largest unbroken expanses of cropland Crop production potential, like tree in the world and with little in the way of growth rates, is much lower in extreme hedges, tree breaks, or other natural northerly regimes than in the middle vegetation to interfere, wind and water latitudes. It is more appropriate, there- erosion are taking a heavy toll. One So- fore, to compare Sc .iet agricultural pro- viet academician believes this has re- ductivity with that of Canada than with duced the inherent productivity of So- that of the United States or China. Soviet viet cropland an average of 30 percent.59 wheat yieldi3 during the 1985-88 period The extent of topsoil loss is stagger- averaged 1.7 metric tons per hectare, ing, and references in Soviet agricultural only slightly less than the 1.8 metric tons circles to an unfolding ecological catas- of Canada, where croplands are newer trophe are becoming commonplace. An and less eroded.57 estimated 100,000 hectares of cropland are[IOWclaimed annually by an expanding network of gullies cutting through References in Soviet agricultural the land. Yuri Markish, a USDA analyst of Soviet agriculture, uses official Soviet circles to an unfolding ecological sources to conclude that 152 million catastrophe are becoming com- hectares, roughly two thirds of the ara- monplace. ble land, has lost ferti:ity as a result of water and wind erosion. This helps explain why Soviet grain output has in- As informati in on agricultural condi- creased little since 1980, even though tions in the Soviet Union becomes more fertilizer use has increased by more than readily available, evidence of widespread half." environmental degradation is mounting. Although the Soviet Union invests far Feeding the World in the A:ineties (75) more in agriculture than any other coun- In one respect, projections are simpler try does, the returns on its investment now than in the past. Since the cultivated have been disappointing. Indeed, the in- area is not likely to change appreciably tensive agriculture program, patterned during thc nineties, assessing thepro- after the agricultural successes in West- duction prospect becomes solelya mat- ern Europe and designed to provide a ter of estimating how fast land produc- complete package of inputs foruse on tivity will rise. Historically, the largest the more productive land, has yielded gain in world cropland pi oducuvity,as only modest gains in output. Unfortu- measured by grain yield per hectare, nately, these are all too often offset by came dui ing the sixties, when it climbed production losses resulting from soil 26 percent over the decade. Itrose only erosion, soil compaction, and thewater- ?.1 percent during the seventies, andan logging and salting of irrigationsys- estimated 20 percent in the eighties.64 tems.61 Given the adverse effects of environ- The entire world has a stake in the mental degradation discussed inthis success of Soviet agricultural reforms, chapter, it seems likely that the rise in but consumption gains will probably be world cropland productivity will slow limited, and are more likelyto come further during the nineties. Perhapsas a from reducing waste than fron expand- harbinger of the future slowdown, it in- ing output. Soviet farmers face tht. dif- creased very little between 1984 and ficult taFk of feeding a population of 289 1989. (See Figure 4-4.) At this point,it million, uho aspire to a much better diet is difficult to know whether thisrecent and whose numbers are expanding by 3 plateau is merely a short-term interrup- million per year, with a steadily deteri- tion in a long-term trend that willsoon orating resource base. Expectations that resume its vigorous climb, or an indica- agricultural reforms will quickly endSo- tion of how difficult it has becometo viet dependence on imported grain,per- continue raising land productivityrap- haps even making it an exporter,are not idly in countries where yieldsare already realistic.62 high and in a world where environnwn- tal degradation is reducing production potentia1.65 For example, since 1950 U.S.corn yields and West European wheat yields A TOUGH DECADE AHEAD Kilograms Projecting future food productionwas 3,000 once a simple matter of extrapolating historical trends. But as yields inmany countries approach theupper bend on the S-shaped growth curve,this approach becomes irrelevant. The grain 2,000 outputs of several countries, including China, Indonesia, Mexico, and the So- viet Union, have shown littleor no growth since 1984. In addition, land degradation and hotter summersthe 1,000 Source: US. Dept. former difficult to measure and the latter of Agriculture impossible to project with precision 1950 1960 170 19180 1993 2000 will shape future production trends.65 Figure 4-4. World Grain Yield Per Hectare, 1950-89

0 (76) Slate of the World 1990 have nearly tripled. In the Third World, in 1970. Today, yield per hectare of corn wheat yields in India have more than in the United States is nearly double that doubled since 1965, and rice yields in of rice in Japan in 1970. The yield of China have more than doubled since wheat in Western Europe is curr...ntly a 1960. Obviously countries cannot con- fourth again as high. On the other e (id of tinue doubling and tripling grain yield the scale, 1989 rice yielas in Ind'; were per hectare every few decades. But what less than half those of Japan in 1970.67 kind of further increases can reasonably Since 1970, Japan's rice yield per acre be expected? And how quickly will they has riF.1 an average of 0.9 percent per come?66 year,.arcely half the 1.7 percent pro- Trends in land productivity in Japan jected annual growth in world popula- may help answer these questions. Grain tion during the nineties. If the world can yields there started their long upward raise yields during the nineties at this climb around1880, several decades rate, theu grain output will increase by before those in other countries. The 158 million tons, an overall gain of 9 world grain yield today, taking into ac- percent. But with world population ex- count the wide range of growing condi- pected to increase by more than 959 mil- tions,appearsto be roughly where lion (18 percent), per capita grain pro- Japan's yields were in1970. For in- duction would fall 7 percent during the stance, thc 1989 rice yield in China, the decade. (See Table 4-7.) If the world world's largest rice producer, was an es- cannot do any better over the next timated 3.8 tons of milled rice per hect- decade than Japan has over the last two, are, exactly the same as Japan's rice yield in other words, a steady deterioration of Table 4-7. World Grain Production, Total and Per Capita, 1950-80, With Projections to 2000 World Grain Production Per Capita Year Total Change Per Decade Total Change Per Decade (milhon (million tons) tons) (pet cent) (kilograms) (kilograms) (percent) 1950 631 246 1960 847 +216 +34 278 +32 +13 1970 1,103 +256 +30 296 +18 + 6 1980 1,441 +338 +31 322 +26 + 9 1990 1,684' +243 +17 316 6 2 2900 1,8422 +158 + 9 295 21 7 by USDA 'Assumes1percent increase mer 1989 world haryest of 1,667 million metrk tons as estimated in Cctobei 1989.2Assurnes no appreciable gains orIsses in world gram arca and a rate of yield-per- hectare increase for world gran. betw cen 1990 and 2000 that will equal the 0 9 percent per year mcrease in Japan's rice yield 'oetween 1c69-71 and 1986-88. SOURCES.Gram roduction 19E0-80 from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Seryice (ERS), LrldGrain IlarvestelArea, Produ Ilion, and held, 1950-88(unpublished printout) (Washing- ton. D.C.. 1989), 1939 from USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board.tirld Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates,Washmgtor. DC., Octobei 12. 1989, per capna figures deny ed from population data (based on data from U.S. Burea, of the Census) in Francis Urban and Philip Rose. !fork/Population by Country ard Region, 1950-86. and hi:Jealous id 2000(Washington, D.C.. USDA. ERS, 1988). increase in Japanese rice yield from USDA, ERS, R Grain Feeding the World in the Nineties (77) diets for much of humanity and increas- tion has been isasted. To be sure, there ing hungei for many of us seems ineYita- will be some further gains in output from ble.68 high-yielding crop varieties, but they are The key question for the nineties is not likely to match the impressive jumps whether the world will even be able to registered from the mid-sixties to the match the Japanese record. Despite the mid-eighties. powerful incentive of a domestic price The world needstocontinueto support for their rice pegged at four strengthen agriculture in every way pos- times the world market, Japanese farm- sible. A massive international effort is ers have run out of agronomic options to needed to pr atect soil, conserve water, achieve major additional gains in pro- and restore the productivity of degraded ductivity. Farmeis in the rest of the land. But the Japanese experience sug- worldwho are not as literate oras gests that even doing everything feasible scientificallyoriented asthose in on the food side of thc food/population Japan -will find it difficult to do any better.69 ecr ation is not enough. A deterioration in diet and an increase in hunger for part of humanity is no longer a matter of conjecture. In Africa, A massive international effort is both the absolute number of people and needed to protect soil, conserve the share of population that is hungry water, and restore the productivity are increasing. In Latin America, in- of degraded land. creasing poverty, declining food production per person, and rising food prices indicate a similar trend. Progress in reducing infant mortality, the most sensi- Feeding people adequatelyinthe tive indicator of a society's nutritional nineties will depend on quickly slowing state, has been slowed, stopped, or re- world population growth to bring it in versed in dozens of countries." line with the likely increase in food out- If the world continues with business- put f he only reasonable goal will be to as-usua; policies in agriculture and fam- try to cut the growth rate in half, essen- ily planning, a food emergency within a tially doing what Japan did in the fifties matter of years may be inevitable.It and what China did in the seventies. would extend beyond low-income peo- Reachirg that goal depends on raising ple in the Third World, with its reper- public understanding of the relationship cussions affecting the entire world. Scar- between family size today and the quality ing grain prices and ensuing food riots of human existence tomorrow. Unless could both destabilize national govern- these goals are given top priority in na- ments and threaten the integrity of the tional capitals, the effort will fail." international monetary system. Nor is a family planning effort of the Barring any dramatic technological magnitude needed likely to succeed if breakthroughs on the food front, the the international community does not widening of the gap between population effectively address the issue of Third growth and food production of the last World debt. The economic and social several years will continue. In all too progress that normally leads to s.naller many countries, the opportunity to slow families is now missing in many debt- population growth with the time bought ridden countri Unless debt can be r e- on the food f ont by the Green Revolu- duced tothc voint where economic

t9 2 (78) State of the World 1990 pi ogress resumes, the needed decline in a review of the shifting balance betw cen fertility may not materialize. food supplies and population. It could Launching an adequate international also lead to an exannnation of national population campaign might best be and global projections so that pecple done through a U.N conference for the everywhere can better understand the world's political kaders. Such a gather- consequences ior the hungryand for ing would permit an examination of the the worldof continuing on the current loss of momentum on the food front and demographic path.

. 5 Holding Back theSea Jodi L. Jacobson

Quick study of a world map illustratesan pected to raise the earth's averagetem- obvious but rarely considered fact: much perature between 2.5 and 5.5 degrees of human societyisdefined by the Celsius over the next 100 years. (See planet's oceans. And the boundary be- Chapter 2.) In response, the rate of tween land and water determines a great change in sea level is likely t,,, acc?lerate deal that is often taken for granted, in- from thermal expansio.i of oie carth's cluding the amount of land available for surface waters and from a rapid melting human settlement and agriculture, the of alpine and polar glaciers and of ice economic and ecological productivity of caps. Although the issue of how quickly deltas and estuaries, :he shape of bays oceans will rise is still a matter of debate, and harbors used for commerce, and the the economic and environmental losses abundance or scarcity of fresh water in of coastal nations under most scenarios coastal communities. are enormous. One thing is clear: no The intensified settlement of coastal coastal nation, whether rich or poor, will areas over the past century implies tacit be totally immune.' expectation of a status quo between sea Accelerated sea level rise, like global and shore that, according to most scien- warming, represents an environmental tific models, is about to change. Ona threat of unprecedented proportion. Yet geological time scale, the point where most discussions of the impending in- sea meets land is far from static. Oscilla- crease in global rates obscure a critical tions of cooling and warming that span issuein some regions of the world, the 100,090 years, accompanied by glacia- local sea level is already rising quickly. tion and melting, keep the level of the Egypt, Thailand, and the United States oceans in constant flux. Still, for most of are just a few of the countries where ex- recorded history, sea level has changed tensive coastal land degradation,com- slowly enough to allow the development bined with even the recent small incre- of a social order based -in its relative mental changes in global sea level, is constancy. contributing to large-scale land loss. Global warming willradically alter These trends will be exacerbated ina this. Increasing concentrations of green- greenhouse world. house gases in the atmosphere are ex- A preliminary assessment of the likdy (8o) State of the World 1990 effects of global and relativ e sea level of unknGun future conditionshosv fast rise done by the United Nations Envi- the sea will rise and by what dateen- ronment Programme (UNEP) in 1989 tails a fair amount of risk. identified the eight regions and 27 coun- Questions arise about how far nations tries at greatest risk. While pointing out should go in safeguarding and insuring that potential losses from rising seas are investments already made incoastal far greater in some areas than others, the areas. Protecting beaches, homes, and report warned that a large majority of resorts can cost a country with a long nations will be affected to some degree by higher global rates since only 30 coastline billions of dollars, money that countries in the world are completely is only well spent if current assumptions landlocked.2 about future sea level are borne out. As- sessing the real environmental costs is difficult because traditional economic As sea level rises, coastal communi- models do not reflect the fact that structural barriers built to hold back the sea ties face two choices: retreat from often hasten the decline of ecosystems the shore or fend off the sea. important to fish and birds. Moreover, protecting private property on or° part of the coast often contributes to gher Low to middle-range estimates by the rates of erosion elsewhere, making one U.S. Environmental Protection Agency person's seawall another's woe. (EPA) indicate a warming-induced rise International equity is another impor- by 2100 of anywhere from a half-meter tant issue. Low-lying developing coun- to just over two. A one-meter rise by tries stand to lose the most land from 2075, well within the projections, could accelerated sea level rise yet can least result in widespread economic, environ- afford to build levees and dikes on a mental, and social disruption. G.P. Hek- grand scale. These regions face conse- stra of the Ministry of Housing, Physical quencesgrosslydisproportionateto Planning, and Environment in the Neth- their relatively small contribution to the erlands asserts that such a rise could af- greenhouse effect. At the same time. fect all land up to five meters elevation. however, development projects now in Taking into account the effects of storm progress are putting enormous pressure surges and saltwater intrusion into riv- on regional ecosystems while aggravat- ers, he estimates that 5 million square kilometers are at risk. Although only a ing the current and likely consequences small percentage of the world total of sea level rise. about 3 percentthis area encompasses one third of global cropland and is home to a billion people.3 As sea level rises, coastal communities face two fundamental choices: retreat GLOBAL CHANGES, LOCAL from the shore or fend off the sea. Deci- OUTCOMES sions about which strategy to adopt must be made relatively soon because of the Worldwide mean sea level depends pri- long lead time involved in building dikes marily on two variables. One, the shape and other structures and because of the and size of ocean basins, involves geo- continuing development of coasts. Yet logical changes over many millions of allocating scarce resources on the basis years. The other, the amount of water in

1; 5 Iklding Back the Sea (81) the oceans, isinfluenced by climate, earth's rotational alignment all influence which can have a more rapid impact.4 sea leve1.7 Ocean basins change their shape and The slight vai mations in global climate size in a process not dissimilarto the of the last 5,000 y earsare responsible buildup of land recorded in stratified for coi respondingly small fluctuations ip rock. The sea floor buildsout from sea level, on the order ,;f 1-10 centime- ocean ridges via the accumulation of ters every century.. ON er the past 100 lava, which forms multiple layers. The years, however, global sea level rose weight of new lay ers causes the earth's 10-15 centimeters (4-6 inches),a some- crust to settle and subside. If subsidence what faster pace. Scientists continueto occurs more rapidly than new volcanic debate the cause of this rise,many argu- rock is formed, the basin deepens and ing that there is no ev idence thatit is due the water le% el falls (assuminga constant to human-induced NS arming,. while oth- volume of water). If the production of ers are not so sure.5 new rock exceeds subsidence, on the Faster global mean sea level rise isnot other hand, the bisin's volume de- the only threat to coastalareas. Nor are creases and the water lovel rises.5 changes in the earth's aunosphere the Sea water volume may change much only consequences of human activity more quickly than basin size and shape. likely to accelerate this trend. Discus- A higher global average temperaturecan sions that focus only on the globalmean alto sea level in four ways: The density mask important differences in relative, can decrease through the warming and or local, sea level. Although the two are subsequent expansion of seawater, fundamentally different, globalsea level which increases volume. And the volume rise can be compounded by local fluc- can be raised by the melting of alpine tuations in land elevation and geological glaciers, by a net increase in water processes such as tectonic uplift or sub- as the sidence in coastal areas. Local fringes of polar glaciers melt, or bymore rates of sea level rise in turn depend in large part ice being dischai ged from icecaps into the oceans. on the sum of' the global pattern and local subsidence. Glaciers and ice sheh es, such as those in Antarctica and Greenland, freeze Land subsidence is a keyissue in the or case of river deltas, such as the Nile and melt in a cycle on the order ofevery Bengal, where human activitiesare inter- 100,000 years. In the last interglacialpe- riod, average temperatures fering with the nortnal geophysicalpro- were 1de- cesses that could balance out the effects gree Celsius warmer and sea level was of rising water levels. These low-lying two to six meters (6.5-20 feet) higher. At the end of the Wisconsin glaciation 15,- regions, important from both ecological and social standpoints, will beamong 000-20,000 years ago, enoughocean the first lost to inundation under global water was collected in glaciers to drop warming. the sea off the northeastern U.S.coast Under natural conditions, deltas 109 meters below its levels today.6 are in dynamicequilibrium,formingand Globally and locally, sea level also breaking down in a continuouspattern fluctuates day to day and y ear toyear as of accretion and subsidence. Subsidence a result of short-term meteorological in deltas occurs naturallyon a local and and physical variable, that may also be regional scale through the compaction affected by global warming. Tidal flows, of recently deposited rivel -borne sedi- barometric pressure, the actions of wind ments. As long as enough sediment and waves, storm patterns, and even the reaches a delta to offset subsidence, the

F.; 6 (82) State of the Woild 1990 area either grows or maintains its size. and in parts of California and Texas." I he Mississippi Rier Delta, for exam- Uncertainties abound on the pace of ple, was built up oer time by sediments all the possible changes expected from deposited during floods and laid down global warming. The most immediate by the river along its natural course to effect will probably be an increase in t ol- the sea. If sediments are stopped along ume through thermal expansion. The the way, continuing compaction and ero- rate of thermal expansion depends on sion cause loss of land relative to the sea, how quickly ocean t olume responds to even if the absolute level of the sea re- rising atmospheric temperatures, how mains unchanged. fast surface layers warm, and how rapidly thewarmingreachesdeeper water masses. The pace of glacial melt and the Low-lying regions, important from exact responses of large masses such as both ecological and social stand- the Antarctic shelf are equally unclear. (See Table 5-1.) Over the long term, points, will be among the first lost however, glaciers and ice caps will make to inundation under global warm- the largest contribution to increased vol- ing. ume if a full-scale global warming occurs. (Melting of the Arctic Ocean ice pack would have no effect on sea level Large-scale human interference in since the ice is floating, displacing an natural processes has had dramatic ef- amount of water roughly equal tc that in fects on both relative rates of sea level the submerged ice.)'' rise and on coastal ecosystems in several Over the past fit e years, a number of major deltas. Channeling, diverting, or scientists have estimated the possible damming of risers can greatly reduce the range of greenhouse-induced sea let el amount of sediment that reaches a delta, rise by 2100. Gordon de Q Robin pro- as has happened in the Indus, the Missis- jects an increase of anywhere from 20 to sippi, and many other major river sys- 165 centimeters. Computations by other tems, resulting in heavier shoreline ero- scientists yield projections as high as two sion and an increase in local relative to four meters over the next 110 y ears. water levels. Furthermore, the mining of Widely cited EPA estimates of global groundwater and of oil and gas deposits mean sea let el rise by 2100 range from can raise subsidence rates. In Bangkok, 50 to 200 centimeters (1.6 to 6.5 feet). local subsidence has reached 13 centi- dependingonvariousassumptions meters per year as the water table has about the rate of climate change. Most dropped because of excessit e withdraw- models do agree that initial rates of in- als of groundwater over the past three crease will be small relative to the much decades. (See Chapter 3.)9 more rapid acceleration expected from These factors can dramatically affect 2050 on. (See Table 5-2.) After 2100, the local outcome of global changes. the rate is anybody's guess. In any case, Subsidence can result in a local sea le% el et en the low range of eflimates portends rise in some delta regions that is t.p to a marked increase ovetthe current five times more than a global mean in- global pace." crease. Under a 20-centimeter world- If global warming runs its course un- wide mean increase, for example, local abated, resulting in at crap tempera- sea level rise may range from 33 centi- tures toward the higher end of the pre- meters along the Atlantic ;nd Gulf dicted range, the earth may eventually coasts of the United States to Jne meter be awash in seawater. In theory, the in rapidly subsiding areas of Louisiana world's total remaining ice cover con-

C17t; Holding Back the Sea (83) Table5-1.Varying Estimates of Sea Level Rise by 2100, by Source

Melting Thermal Alpine Study Expansion Glaciers Greenland Antat cucaTotal (centimeters) National Academy of Sciences (1983) 30 12 12 70

Environmental Protection Agency 28-115 56-345 (1983)

National Academy of Sciences (1985) 10-30 10-30 10 to 50-200 +100

Thomas (1985) 0-200

Hoffman et al. (1980) 28-83 12-27 6-27 12-220 57-368 SOURCEJ.S.Hoffman et al., "Future Global Warming and Sea LeelRise,"in 1-er Brun, ed.,keland Symposium '85(Reykjavik: National Energy Authority,1986) tains enough water to raisesea level over total U.S. land area. Heavily populated 70 meters. Some early reports, taking areasincluding one fourth tc, one third thisfacttoitsextreme,predicted of Florida and Louisiana;a quarter of changes of similar magnitude withina Delaware; the Texas cities of Galveston, brief period of time. But suchan in- Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Corpus crease is more science fiction than fact Christi;SavannahinGeorgiaand since complete melting of all ice packs Charleston in South Carolina; and low- would take several thousand years.'3 lying regions of Atlantic City, New York The most likely candidate for melting City, Boston, and Washington, D.C. by the early twenty-second century is the would be inundated.13 West Antarctic ice sheet. Unlike the What is important about the sea level Greenland and EastAntarctic ones, rise expected from global warming is the which are based on land, the West Ant- pace of change. The rate expected at the arctic sheet is grounded in theocean (on global level in the foreseeable future top of submarine mountains and ridges), one meter by 2075 is certainly plausi- making it relatively unstable. A signifi- bleis unprecedented on a human time cant increase in sea level, as from ther- scale. Unfortunately, with today's level mal expansion, could lift it off its base of population and investment in coastal and break it free. Summertimetempera- areas, the world has much more to lose tures in this region average about minus from sea level rise than ever before. 5 degrees Celsius; a 5-degree increase could start this massive sheet on itsway to destruction. A greenhouse-induced meltdown of the whole ice sheet would take from 200 to 500 years, raisingsea level an additional six meters." LANDS AND PEOPLESAT RISK Biochemist Fr'c Golanty claims that From the atmosphere to theocean, hu- the resulting meltwater alone would lead mans are proving themselves forceful to inundation of 1.5-2.1 percent of the if unintentionalagents of change. By

..; 8 (84) State of the World 1990 Table 5-2. Estimates of Sea Level Rise, 2000-2100

Range 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 (centimeters) Low 4.8 13 23 38 56 Low to mid 8.8 26 53 91 144 Mid to high 13.2 39 79 137 217 High 17.1 55 117 212 345 SOURCE. John S Hoffman et al., Projecting Future Sea Level Roe (Washington,D.0 U S Enswonmental Protection Agency. 1983). and large, the costs of higher seas to- now drowning Louisiana's coastal mar- morrow will be determined by patterns shes at rates as high as 130 square kilo- of development prevalent in river sys- meters per year, giving that state the du- tems and coastal areas today. bious distinction of losing more land to Intense population pressures and eco- the sea on an annual basis than any other nomic demands are already taking their region in the world." toll on deltas, shores, and barrieri ;- Coastal swamps and marshes are areas lands. Rapid rates of subsidence and of projigious biological productivity. coastal erosion ensure that many areas Louisiana's marshes, for example, cover of the world will experience a one -meter 3.2 million hectares and constitute 41 increase in sea level well before a global percent of all wetlands in the United change of the same magnitude. As a re- States. The region supplies 25 percent sult, countless billions of dollars worth of the U.S. seafood catch and supports a of property in coastal towns, cities, and $500-million-a-year recreational indus- ports w ill be threatened and problems try devoted to fishing, hunting, and bird- with natural and artificial drainage, salting. The ecological benefits derived water intrusion into rivers and aquifers, from these same wetlands have not been and severe erosion of beacheswill estimated yet. Nearly two thirds of the become even more commonplace. migratory birds using the Mississippi The ebb and flow of higher tides will flyway make essential use of this ecosys- cause dramatic declines in a wide variety .em, while existing marshlands and bar- of coastal ecosystems. Wetlands and rier islands buffer inland areas against coastal forests, which account for most devastating hurricane surges. Marshes of the world's land area less than a meter not only keep the Gulf of Mexico's salt above mean k Ide, are universally at risk. water from intruding into local rivers Loos of coastal wetlands in Louisiana and aquifers, they are a major source of today provides a good case study for the fresh water for coastal communities, ag- future. riculture, and industry." Deterioration of the Mississippi river What was laid down over millions of delta began early in the nineteenth cen- years by the slow deposit of silt washed tury, shortly after levees (embankments off the land from the Rockies to the Ap- to prevent flooding) became extensiely palachians may deteriorate in little over used. Subsidence and land loss acceler- a century. The combination of global sea ated after 1940 with an increase in river level rise and subsidence could overrun diversions and the tapping of fossil fuel Louisiana's famous bayous and marsh- and groundwater deposits. Combined land by 2040, by allowing the Gulf of Mex- with sea level rise, these processes are ico to surge some 53 kilometers (33 miles) Holding Back the Sea (85) inland. With the delicate coastal marsh In any caf e, there will be severe reduc- ecology upset, fish and wildlife harvests tions in food and habitat for birds and would decline precipitously anda ripple juvenile fish. No one has yet calculated effect would flatten the coastaleconomy. the immense economic and ecological Communities, water supplies, and infra- costs of such a loss for the United S.:tes, structure would all be threatened. Most much less extrapolated them to the glo- of these trends are already apparent in bal level. Yet as global sea level rises, Louisima and are becoming evident in these problems will surely become more other parts of the United States." severe and widespread in ecosystems According to EPA estimates, erosion, around the world. inundation,andsaltwaterintrusion could reduce the area of present-day U.S. coastal wetlands up to 80 percent if current projections of future global sea The combination of global sea level level are realized. Not only the Missis- rise and subsidence could overrun sippi Delta, but the Chesapeake Bay and Louisiana's famous bayous and other vital estuarine and wetland regions marshland by 2040. would be irreparably damaged. Dredged, drained, and filled,coastal wetlands in the United Statesare already under siege from land and sea. Were it A one-meter rise in sea level would not for the enormous pressure that wipe out much of England's sandy human encroachment puts on them, beaches, salty marshes, and mud flats, according to a 1989 study by the Natural these swamps and marshes might havca chance to handle rising seas by reestab- Environment Research Council in Lon- lishing upland. But heavy development don, for example. 'The most vulnerable of coastal areas throughout the country areas lie in the eastern part of the coun- means that few wetlands have leeway to try, including the low-lying fens and "migrate."" marshes of Essex and north Kent. More The extent of wetland loss will depend than half of Europe's wading birds win- on the degree to which coastal towns and ter in British estuaries, and they are des- villages seek to protect shorelines under tined to lose this vital habitat." different scenarios of sea level rise. An Highly productive mangrove forests EPA analysis showed that some 46per- throughout the world will also be lost to cent of all U.S. wetlands would be lost the rising tide. Mangroves are the pre- under a one-meter rise (from globalsea dominant type of vegetation on the del- level rise and local subsidence) if shore- tas along the Atlantic coast of South lines were allowed to retreat naturally. America. On the north coast of Brazil, Building bulkheads and levees that block active shoreline retreat is less of a prob- the path of wetland migration woulden- lem because little human settlement ex- tail higher losses. Fully 66 percent of ists; the mangroves may be able to adapt. U.S. wetlands would disappear if all In the south, however, once-extensive shorelines were proterted. If onlycur- mangroves have already been cleared or rently developed mainlandareas and hemmed in by urban growW, especially barrier islands were safeguarded, the toll near Rio de Janeiro. No more than 100 could be kept to 49 percent. Loss ofup square kilometers of mangroves remain to 80 percent of the country's wetlands where thousands once stood. Assea is envisioned under a more rapidrate of level rises, these remaining areas will sea level rise." disappear too.22 100 (86) Stale of the Woild 1990 Eric Bird of the University of Mel- have retreated during the past few bourne in Australia notes that man- decades.25 grove-fringed coastlines have become Changes on beaches vary with the much less extensive in Australia, Africa, amount of sand supplied to and lost and Asia in recent decades as a result of from the shore due to wa% e acti% ity . The fishpond construction and land reclama- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers found tion for minirg, settlement, and waste dial of the 134,984 kilometers of Ameri- disposal. Where they remain, mangroves can coastline, 24 percent could be classi- stand on the frontlines between salt fied as "seriously" eroding. Over the marshes and freshwater vegetation. Bird past 100 years the Atlantic coastline has argues that submergence willkilloff eroded an average of 60-90 centimeters large areas of the seaward mangroves, (2-3 feet) a year; on the Gulf coast, the especially where human developments figure is 120-150 centimeters. Relatively abutting mangrove forests prevent their few of the most intensi% ely de% eloped landward retreat. In Asia, for example, resortsalongtheU.S.coasthave the land behind mangroves is often in- beaches wider than about 30 meters at tensively used for fishponds or rice high tide. Projections of sea level rise fields. Thus as sea level rises,it will ovei the next 40-50 years suggest that threaten not only the mangrove species most recreational beaches in developed that cannot reestablish upland, but also areas could be eliminated unless preven- the economic value of products derived tive measures are taken.26 from rice fields and brackish-water fish- Increased erosion would decrease nat- ponds within the flood zone.25 ural storm barriers. Coastal floods as- In the Bight of Bangkok, the man- sociated with storm surges surpass even grove fringe has already largely been earthquakes in loss of life and property cleared and converted intofish and damage worldwide. Apart from greater shrimp ponds and salt pans. Landward ewsion of the barrier islands that safe- canals have been built to irrigate rice guard mainland coasts, higher Yeas will fields. A one-meter sea level rise would increase flooding and storm damage in threaten to submerge all existing man- coastal areas because raised water levels groves and an additional zone up to 300 would prpvide storm surges witha meters landward, wiping out the fish higher base to build upon. And the farms. This is likely to happen on the higher seas would decrease natural and southwestern coast of Banglaaesh as artificial drainage." well, where 6,000 square kilometers of A one-meter sea level rise could turn a mangroves, locally known as "sundar- moderatz storm inw a catastrophic one. bans," are at risk. A maze of heavily for- A storm of a severity that now occurs on ested waterways that is both economi- average every 15 years, for example, cally and ecologically valuable, this area could flood many al eas that are today shields the heavily settled region behind only affected by truly massive storms it from the sea.24 once a century. Oceanographer T.S. Worldwide,erosionofcoastlines, Murty states that as cultivation and habi- beaches, and barrier islands has acceler- tation of newly formed low-lying delta ated over the past 10 years as a result of land continues, "even greater storm rising sea level. A survey by a commis- surge disasters must be anticipated."25 sion of the International Geographical Murty's study shows that losses are Union demonstrated that erosion had nowhere more serious than in the Bav of become prevalent on the world's sandy Bengal. About 60 percent of all deaths coastlines, at least 70 percent of which due to storm surges worldwide in this

1 01 Holding Back the Sea (87) century have occurred in the low-lying Against a one-meter rise in ocean lev- agricultural areas of the countries I- or- els, Miami's only defense would be a dering this bay and the adjoining Anda- costly system of seawalls and dikes. But man Sea. Murty puts the cost of damage that might not be enough to spare it from storm surges in the Bay of Bengal from insidious assault. Fresh water floats region between 1945 and 1975 at $7 bil- atop Salt water, so as sea levels rise the lion,butwarnsthatthisnumber water table would be pushed nearly a "scarcely expresses the impac of such meter closer to the surface. The elabo- disasters on developing countries."29 rate pumping and drainage system that Bangladeshwhere storm surges now currently maintains the integrity of the reach as far as 160 kilometers upriver highly porous aquifer could beover- accounts for 40 percent of this toll. In whelmed. The higher water table would 1970, this century's worst storm surge cause roads to buckle, bridge abutments tore through the countryside, initially to sink, and land to revert back to taking some 300,000 lives, drowning swamp. Miami's experience would not millions of livestock, and destroying be unique. Large citiesaround the most of Bangladesh's fishing fleet. The worldBangkok, New Orleans, Taipei, toll climbed higher in its aftermath. As and Venice, to name a fewface similar the region's population mounts, so does prospects. the potential for another disaster.39 Studies indicate a dramatic increase in the area vulnerable to flooding in the A storm of a severity that nowoc- United States as well. A one-meter rise would boost the portion of Charleston, curs every 15 years could flood South Carolina, now lying within the 10- many areas today only affected by year floodplain from 20 to 45 percent. A truly massive storms once acen- 1.5-meter rise would brnIg that figure to tury. more than 60 percent, the current area of the 100-year floodplain. Effectively, once-a-century floods would then occur A study by the Delaware River Basin on the order of every 10 years. In Commission indicates that a rise of 13 Galveston, Texas, the 100-year flood- centimeters by the end of this decade plain would move from 58 percent of the would pull the "salt front" on that river low-lying area to 94 percent under a rise from two to four kilometers further in- of just 88 centimeters." land if there were a drought similar to Sea level rise will also permanently af- one in the sixties that contaminated Phil- fect freshwater supplies. Miami is a case adelphia's water supply. A rise of 1-2.5 in point. The city's first settlementswere meters would push salt water up to 40 built on what little high ground could be kilometers inland under drought condi- found, but today most of greater Miami tions. The resulting contamination of lies at or just above sea level on swamp- fresh water would exceed New Jersey's land reclaimed from the Everglades. health-based sodium standard 15 to 50 Water for its 3 million residents is drawn percent of the time.33 from the Biscayne aquifer that flows Countri,?s bordering the Mediterra- right below the city streets. That the city ran are likely to suffer significant eco- exists and prospers is due to what engi- tomic losses. Greece and Italy, for ex- neers call a "hydrologic masterwork" of ample, face threats to their tourism natural and artificial systems that hold industries and to specialized agricultural back swamp and sea.32 industries, as well as to important har-

102 (88) State of the Mild 1990 bors. A 1989 UNEP report points out has greatly decreased the amount of sed- that, though they constitute only 17 per- iment getting to deltas. The sediments cent of the total land area of the Mediter- feeding Asia's many great river deltas ac- ranean region, the alluvial and coastal count for at least 70 percent of the total plains of most countries bordering this that reaches the oceans, and they replen- sea hav e considerable demographic and ish agricultural land with the fertile silt economic importance. The coastis responsible for a large share of food pro- home to 37 percent of the region's pop- duced in those nations.35 ulation, some 133 million people. The As elsewhere, the deltas reliant on report cautions that, while serious envi- these sediments support sizable human ronmental problemsfrom water pollu- and wildlife populations while creating tion and salinization to shoreline erosion protective barriers between inland areas and loss of habitatalready exist in the and the sea. Large cities,including region, due to agricultural and industrial Bangkok, Calcutta, Dacca, Hanoi, Kara- practices,tourism, and urbanization, chi, and Shanghai, have grown up on the "sea level rise will affect considerably the low-lying river banks. These heavily economy and well-being of many coun- populated areas are almost certain to be tries especially because many low coasts flooded as sea level rise accelerates." will increasingly experience physical in- The U.N. Environment Programme's stability" resulting from subsidence and 1989 global survey represents the first reduced sedimentation.34 attempt to analyze systematically the regions most vulnerable to sea level rise. An overall lack of data posed sevet e constraints on the assessments of potential impacts. In defining "vulnerability," for example, UNEP sought to evaluate pop- MOST VULNERABLE, LEAST ulation densities for the total area world- RESPONSIBLE wide lying between 1.5 and 5 meters above mean sea level. At the global level Social and environmental costs of sea and at most local sites, however, detailed level rise will be highest in countries topographic maps are not available for where deltasareextensive, densely such low elevations.37 populated, and extremely food-produc- On a vountry-by-country basis, four tive. In these countries, most of which main criteria were used to determine are in the Third World, heavy reliance vulnerability. The first twothe share of on groundwater and the completed or total land area between zero and five me- proposed damming and diversion of ters above mean sea level and the density large riversfor increased hydropower of coastal populationswere used to as- and agricultural use, for flood control, sess the likely demographic impacts. and fottransportationhave already Identified as kaost vulnerable were areas begun to compound pm oblems with sea %here coastal population density ex- le% el rise. Ahnost % ithout exception, the ceeded 100 people per square kilometer. prognosis for these vulnerable, low- Potential economic and ecological lying countrks in a greenhouse %odd is losses were gauged by the other two cri- grim. teria: the extent of agricultural and of Thestakesareparticularlyhigh biological productivity within low-lying throughout Asia, where damming and areas.First, UNEP isolated countries div ersion of such systems as the Indus, where lowland agricultural produc:ivity Ganges-Brahmaputra, and Yellow rivers grew on average more than 2 percent a

1.03 Holding Back the Sea (89) year between 1980 and 1985 Second, it Table 5-3. Ten Countries Most added the regions with the largest inven- Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise tories of coastal wetlands and tidalman- grove forests. Per Under these guidelines,10 coun- Capita triesBangladesh, Egypt, The Gambia, Countries Population Income Indonesia, the Maldives, Mozambique, (million) (dollars) Pakistan, Senegal, Surinam, and Thai- landwere identified as "most vulnera- Banglad, sh 114 .7 160 ble." These 10 share many characteris- Egypt 54.8 710 The Gambia tics, including the fact that theyare, by 0.8 220 and large, poor and populous. (See Indonesia 184 .6 450 Table 5-3.) Not insignificantly,as a Maldives 0.9 300 group they also contribute relatively little to the current buildup of greenhouse Mozambique 15.2 150 gases . Pakistan 110.4 350 UNEP identified both primary and Senegal 5.2 510 Surinam 0.4 2,360 secondary impact areas as important in Thailand each of these countries. The primary im- 55.6 840 pact area consists of the coastal region souiteLsUnitedNationsEn tronment o- between zero and 1.5 meters elevation, giamme, Criteria fin Assessing l'ulnerability to Sea-Level Rise .1 Global Inventory to I ligh Risk .1reas (Delft, which would be completely lost undera Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics 1.ahot at ory, 1989): 1.5-meterrise. The secondary area income and population data fiorn Population Ref- (1.5-3 metei s above today's mean) is el core Bureau, 1989 World Population Data Sheet, vulnerable not only to a rise inseas of Washington, D.C. 1989. equivalent measure, but to themany pressuressuch as an influx of environ- graphicInstitutionin Massachusetts. mental refugees, and increased regional Their study showed the combined ef- demand for food, housing, and otherre- fects of sea level rise and subsidenceon sourcesthat would arise from inunda- the Bengal and Nile delta regions, where tion of the land closer to the sea." the homes and livelihoods ofsome 46 million people are potentially threatened." The sediments feeding Asia'smany The river delta nations of the Indian great deltas replenish agricultural subcontinent and southeast Asia depend land with the fertile silt responsi' le heavily on ocean resources and coastal for a large share of food produced areas for transportation, mariculture, and habitable land. Bangladesh isno ex- in those nations. ception. The Bengal Delta, the world's largest such coastal plain, accounts for 80 percent of Bangladesh's landmass Detailed information on the landarea, and exten-is some 650 kilometers from population, and economic output likely the western boundary with India to the to be affected by a rise of up to three Chittagong hill tracts. Milliman observes meters was unattainable for all but Ban- that because the delta is so close to the gladesh and Egypt. For dataon these sea (most of the at ea is only a meter or two countries, UNEP drew on a 1989 wo above that level now), an increase in study by John Milliman and his col- sea level rise actompanied by higher leagues at the Woods Hole Oceano- rates of coastal storm erosion is likely to

In4 (9o) State of the World 1990 have a greater effect here than on any delta. As a result, subsidence is increas- other delta in the world.'" ing. Residents of one of the poorest and This situation is being made worse by most densely populated nations in the the increasing withdrawal of groundwa- world, Bangladeshis already live at the ter. Milliman of Woods Hole notes a six- margin of survival. Most people depend fold increase in the number of wells heavily on the agricultural and economic drilled in the country between 1978 and output derived from land close to the sea 1985, raising subsidence to perhaps and currently subject to annual floods twice the natural rate. The researd,ers both fromriversand ocean storm concluded that interference in the delta surges. Subsidence is already a problem ecosystem today may make a far larger in this region; the Woods Hole study in- ai ea and population susceptible to sea dicates that as global warming sets in, level rise, causing dislocation of more relative sea level rise in the Bengal Delta than 40 million people.43 may well exceed two meters by 2050. Egyptalmost completely desert ex- Because half the country lies at eleva- cept for the thin ribbon of productive tions below five meters, losses to accel- land along the Nile and its deltacan erated sea level rise will be high.4' also ill afford the likely costs of sea level rise. The country's millions crowd on to the less than 4 percent of the land that is Bangladeshis depend heavily on arable, leading to a population density in the agricultural and economic out- the settled ai ea of Egypt of 1,800 people oer square kilometer.44 put derived from land close to the In the Nile Delta, extending from just sea. east of the port city of Alexandria to west of Port Said at the northern entrance of the Suez Canal, local sea level rise al- UNEP estiMates based on current ready far exceeds the global average due population size and density show that 15 to high rates of subsidence. The con- percent of the nation's land area, inhab- struction of the first barrages or dains on ited by 15 million people, is threatened the Nile in the 1880s cut massively the by total inundation from a primary rise amount of sediments that nourished the of up to 1.5 meters. Secondary increases delta, a situation made worse by the of up to three meters would wipe out building of the Aswan Dam in 1902 and over 28,500 square kilometers (20 per- its enlargement in 1934. Extensive di- cent of the total land area), displacing an version of water for irrigation and land additional 8 million. These projections reclamation projectssince then has do not account for the ongoing increase closed down a number of' the Nile's for- in Bangladesh's population nor for con- mer tributaries, greatly reducing the tinuing settlement of the delta area, and river's outward flow.'" so clearly understate the potential num- Even so, approximately 80-100 mil- ber of environmental refugees.'" lion tons of sediment were delivered an- By the end of the next century, Ban- nually to the Nile Delta until 1964, when gladesh as it is known today may virtually the opening of the Aswan High Dam vir- have ceased to exist. Pressures to de- tually eliminatedthesilt getting velop agriculture have quickened the through. High rates of relative sea level pace of damming and channelling on the rise and the accompanying acceleration three giant riversthe Brahmaputra, the in subsidence and erosion have resulted Ganges, and the Meghnathat feed the in a frightening rate of coastal retreat,

1 il 5 Iloldtng Back the Sea (91) reaching 200 meters annually insome regression of several tens of kilometers places.46 by the twenty-second century.49 Milliman's study suggests that local At least 40 percent of Indonesia's land sea level rise will range from 1 to 1.5 surface is classified as vulnerable tosea meters by 2050, rendering up to 19 per- level rise. In terms of both size and di- cent of Egypt's already scarce habitable versity, the country is home toone of the land unlivable. By 2100,an expected rise world's richest and most extensive series of between 2.5 and 3.3 metersmay inun- of wetlands. Here, too, populationpres- datc 26 percent of the habitable land sures arc already threatening these frag- home to 24 percent of the population ileecosystems. Transmigration pro- and source of an equal share of thecoun- p ams have resettled millions of people try's economic output.47 in the pal several years from theover- To feed a population growing nearly 3 populated islaris of Java and Bali to the percent annually, the government has tidal swamps of Sumatra ail(' Kaliman- followed a strategy of land reclamation tan, a policy decision that may be much and development of lagoon fisherieson regretted should these lands give way to the delta banks. The principal existing the sea. Although studies remain to be natural defenses against transgression done on how many people will eventu- by the sea are a series of dunes and the ally be affected by the ocean's incursion, freshwater (but increasingly brackish) the numbers arc certain to be high.60 lakes that fall behind them. According to A one- to two-meter rise in sea level James Broadus of Woods Hole, these could be disastrous for the Chinese lakcsBurullos, Idku, Manzalah, and economy as well. The Yangtze Delta is Maryutare the major source of thena- one of China's most heavily farmed tion's approximately 100,000tons of an. areas. Damming and subsidence have nual fish catch, 80 percent of whicharc contributed to a continuing loss of this freshwater fish. Ironically, the lakes and valuable land on thc order of nearly 70 surrounding areas now slated for devel- square kilometers per year sincc 1947. A opment in the regions of Port Said and sea level rise of even one meter could Lake Maryut will likely be inundated sweep away large areas of the delta, some time in !he next century.48 causing a devastating loss in agricultural Unless steps are taken now to slowsea productivity for China.6i level rise, Egyptians can also look forward to damage to ports and harbors, increasing stress on freshwater supplies due to saline encroachment, and the loss of beaches that support tourism, suchas those in Alexandria. PAYING BY THE METER Extending these scenarios on Ban- China's2,400-kilometer-longGreat gladesh and Egypt to the eight other Wall is -onsidered the largest construc- most endangered nations presents a so- tion projt:t ever carried out, but itmay bering picture. Despite the lack of data, soon be superseded in several countries preliminary findings show the situation by modern-day analogues: Great Sea- to be equally grave. In another study, walls. Assui ing a long-run increase in Milliman notes that when the impact of rates of global sea level rise, societies the global rise is added to that ofre- will have to choose some adaptivestrate- gional subsidence and of damming and gies. Broadly speaking, they facetwo diversion, Indian Ocean deltaicareas choices: fight or flight. Manygovern- may register a relative subsidence of at ments see no alternative to building jet- least several meters, leading to coastal ties, seawalls, groins, and bulkheads to

I (92) State of the World 1990 hold back the sea. Yet the multibillion- Large though these expenditures are, dollar price tags attached to these may they are trivial compared with what the be higher than even some well-to-do United States, with more than 30,000 countries can afford, especially when ac- kilometers (19,000 miles) of coastline counting for the long-term ecological would have to spend to protect Long Is- damage such structures can cause. land, North Carolina's Outer Banks, Along with the intensified settlement most of Florida, the Bayous of Louisi- of coastal areas worldwide over the past ana, the Texas coast, the San Francisco century has come a belief that human Bay area, and the Maryland, Massachu- ingenuity could tame any natui al force setts, and New Jersey shores.55 an attitude that coastal geologists such Preliminai y estimates by EPA of the as Orrin Pi lkey and some of his col- total bill for holding the sea back from leagues deplore. As a result of this short- U.S. shoresincluding costs to build sighted approach, people have been in- bulkheads and levees, raise barrier is- clined to build closer and closer to the lands, and pump sand, but not including ocean, investing billions of dollars in the money needed for replacing or re- homes and seaside resorts and respond- pairing infrastructure such as roads, ing to danger by confrontation.52 sewers, water mains, and buried ca- Nowhere in the world is the battle blesrange from $32 billion to $309 bil- against the sea more actively engaged lion for a one-half- to two-meter rise in than in the Netherlands. Hundreds of sea levels. (A one-meter rise would cost kilometers of carefully maintained dikes $73 billion to $111 billion.) Extending and natural dunes keep the part of the the projections to impoverished coastal country thatis now well below sea areas of Africa, Asia, and South America levelmore than half the totalfrom underscores the futility of such an ap- being flooded. As Dutchengineers proach under a scenario of rapidly rising know, the ocean doesn't relinquish land seas.56 easily. In early 1953, a storm surge that Nevertheless, in most industrial coun- hit the delta region caused an unprece- tries at least, property owners in coastal dented disaster. More than 160 kilome- areas have bvcome a powerful interest ters of dikes were breached, leading to group supportive of defenses that will the inundation of 1,000 square kilome- save their land, even if only for the short ters of land and more than 1,800 deaths. term. Many countries have made 'cast in- In response, the government put to- vestments reclaiming land from the sea gether the Delta Plan, a massive public for use by large coastal populations: wit- works project that took two decades and ness the effortsin Singapore, Hong the equivalent of 6 percent of the coun- Kong, and Tokyo. In most cases, gov- try 's gross national product each year ernments have encouraged and con- until finally completed in 1986.53 tinuedtosupportthisconstituency. The Dutch continue to spend heavily Heavy investments in roads, sewers, and to keep their extensive system of dikes otherpublicservices and insurance and pumps in shape, and are now pro- against disasters have largely been subsi- tected against storm surges up to those dized by taxpayers, many living far from with a probability of occurring once in any coast. 10,000 years. But the prospect of accel- Political pressures to maintain these erated sea level rise implies that main- lands through dikes, dams, and the like taining this level of safety may require will be high. "The manner in which soci- additional investments of up to $10 bil- eties respond to the impact of rising sea lion by 2040.54 levels." observes G.P. Hekstra, "will be

I 6 7 Holthng Back the Sea (93) determined by a mix of conditions [in- went, for example, can cost $620,000 cluding] the vested interests thatare per kilometer, but these costs are often threatened, the availability of finance justified by economic and 1-creational ... employment opportunities, political use of the areas. A recent study A'Ocean responsibilities and national presage." City, New Jersey, found it wouldcost Eric Bird argues, for example, thatstate about 25¢ per visitor to rebuild beaches capitals and other seaside towns in Aus- to cope with a 30-centimeter rise, less tralia and resorts in Africa and Asia will than 1 percent of the average cost ofa probably be maintained by beachnour- trip to the beach. A more rapidrate of ishment programsliterally "feeding" sea level rise would, of course, raise the the beach with sand transported from ante. And the fact remains that most elsewhereno matter the cost.57 beach replenishment istemporary at PoliticalsupportforsubsicEzing best, indicating the need for continuous coastal areas may be undercut bycom- investment." peting fiscal demandsover the long run. In the United States, wherea burgeoning budget deficit has vastly reducedex- Today'spropertyownersface penditures on repairs and construction of bridges and roads, for example, the becoming tomorrow's proprietors Federal Highway Administration esti- of marshes and bogs. mates that bringing the nation's highway system up to "minimum engineering standards" would cost a mind-boggling Advocates of coastal protectionstrate- $565 billion to $655 billionover the next gies argue convincingly that coastal de- 20 years. Today, that agency's budget is velopment should be limited. Mostas- a meager $13 billion and fiscal paralysis sert, for example, that future disasters keeps it from growing any larger. With may be prevented or the harm done by increasing competition forscarce tax them lessened if highly vulnerableareas dollars, property owners in theyear were protected. And in recent years, the 2050 may find the general public reluc- tide of public opinion in severalstates tant to foot the bill for seawalls.58 regarding conservation of wetlands has Moreover, what may seem like protec- tended to support the view thatsonic tion often turns out to be onlya tempo- property should be allowed to return to rary palliative. While concrete structures its natural state. Attitudes could change, may divert the ocean's energies from of course, as today's propertyowners one beach, they usually displace it onto face becoming tomorrow'sproprietors another. And by changing the dynamics of marshes and bogs. of coastal currents and sediment flow, The legal definitions of privateprop- these hard structures interrupt thenatu- erty and of who is responsible forCOM- ral processes that allow wetlands and pensation in the event of natural disas- beaches to reestablish upland, causing ters are already coming into question. As them to deteriorate and inmany cases sea level rise accelerates, pushing up the disappear." costs of adaptation, these Issues will Beach nourishment is a relatively be- likely become part of an increasinglyac- nign defensive strategy thatcan work in rimonious aebate over property rights some cases. And comparing the costs and individual hut rests versus those of and benefits illustrates that it isnot usu- society at large. ally as prohibitively expensiveas other Enforcement of the coastal protection approaches. Sand or beach nourish- law in South Carolina in the aftermath of

t 6 8 (94) State of (he World 1)90 the recent Ebirricane Hugo is a good ex- $965 million to $550 million through ad- ample of the types of conflicts that can vanced planning.62 arise. On September 21, 1989, Hurri- Obviously, heavily developed areas, cane Hugo came ashore at Charleston such as the island of Manhattan, much of one day after it ravaged several islands in which is less than two meters above high the Caribbean. The storm, creating an tide, will not be left to be swallowed by ocean surge that reached 20 feet at its thesea.An accounting niethodis highest point, killed 29 people on the needed to establish priorities and assess mainland and caused an estimated $4 the costs and benefits of protection billion worth of damage in the United strategies versus the costs of inundation. States. It also sparked a controversy over Several analysts are attempting to de- South Carolina's new beachfront protec- velop such a model. Gary Yohe, an econ- tion law. The statute completely prohib- omist at Wesleyan University in Con- its any new seawalls and regulates com- necticut,is developing a method of comparing the costs of not holding back mercial and residential construction in a the sea with those of protecting coasts setback area along the coast. Because the on a year-to-year basis. His economic storm ate up so much of the existing model is a first step toward "measuring beach,159 plots of land, on which the current value of real sources of ... houses were destroyed, all became part wealth that might be threatened .. if a of the "dead zone" where new buildings decision to forego any protection from are prohibited. Even before Hugo hit, rising seas were made." In his prelimi- several homeowners filed suit against nary analysis, using Long Beach Island, the state for "taking property without New Jersey, as a case study, Yohe focuses justcompensation." Thestatesof on estimating the market price of threat- Maine, Maryland, North Carolina, and ened structures, the worth of threatened Texas also have enacted coastal protec- property, and the social value of threat- tion laws." ened coastline.63 Site-specific studies of several towns A truly representative model should in the United States suggest that incor- account for all the costs and benefits porating projections of sea level rise into economic,ecological, and socialof land-use planning can save money in the protection against other options. One long run. Projections of costs in Charles- cost not explored in Yohe's assessment ton, South Carolina, show that a strategy is the loss in coastal ecological wealth as that fails to anticipate and plan for the ade effect of protection. In keeping greenhouse world can be expensive. De- with the figures for the United States as pending on the zoning and developmem a whole, for example, researchers have policies followed, including the amount estimated that a 1.5-meter rise would of land lost and the costs of protective eliminate about 80 percent of Charles- structures built, the costs of a one-meter ton's wetlands with current barriers in sea level rise may exceed $1.9 billion by place. If additional developed area -. are 2075an amount equal to 26 percent of protected by bulkheads and levees, a 90- total current economic activity in this percent loss is envisioned. The South area. If land use policies and building Carolinabeachfrontprotectionlaw codes are modified to anticipate rising seeks to prevent this large-scale destruc- sea levels, this figure could be reduced tion, but its political viability is still in by more than 60 percent. Similar studies question." of Galveston, Texas, show that eco- Protecting wetlands requires a trade- nomic impacts could be lowered from off as well. Taking shore and wetland Holding Bath the Sea (95) conservation measures basically implies afford to match the Dutch kilometer for a willingness to relinquish to the sea kilometer in seawalls. But its danget is some land area now in use or potentially no less real. Debates over land loss may available for social activities, such as be a moot point in poorer countries like fanning and home building. A study of Bangladesh, where evac, .ation and aban- coastal land loss in Massachusetts by donment of coastal land may be the only Graham Giese and David Aubrey of option when submergence and erosion Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution take their toll and when soil and water illustrates these processes and estimates salinity increase. As millions of people the amount of land likely to be lost in displaced by risirg seas move inland, Massachusetts under thrcc scenarios.65 competition w ith those already living Giese and Aubrey distinguish between there for scarce food, water, and land upland (relatively dry tcrrain thatis may spur regional clashes. Ongoing land landward of wetland and not altered tenure and equity disputes within coun- much by waves and tides) and wetland tries will worsen. Existing international itself, including coastal bluffs, dunes, tensions, such as those between Ban- beaches, and marshes that are affected gladesh and its large neighbor to the by these forces. Wetlands replace up- west, India, are likely to heighten as the lands as they migrate landward, result- trickle of environmental refugees from ing in loss of total upland area. Where the nation that is awash becomes a tor- wetla-ids are protected by law (as they rent. arein Massachuseto) against being drained or filled, they gain at the expense of uplands, essentially protecting the ecological over the purely economic value of the land.66 PLANNING AHEAD Relative sea level in Massachusetts has The threats posed by rapidly increasing been rising some three millimeters an- sea level raise questions that govern- nually since 1950. Under the firstsce- ments and individuals must grapple with nario in Giese and Aubrey's study, which today. If the world moves quickly ontoa assumes a continuation of current trends sustainable path, the effects of global from 1980 through 2025, the sea along warming and sea level rise can bc miti- the coast of Massachusetts would rise 36 gated. Minimizing the impacts of climate centhneters. The state 1uld therefore change will require that a number of lose 23 hectares a year, or nearly 1,200 strategies be put in place right away. hectares over that period. The second (See Chapter 2.) An unprecedented level scenario assumes a higher global rise by of international cooperation on agricul- 2025 (EPA's low to mid-range estimate), tural, energy, forestry, and land use poli- which when combined with subsidence cies will be required. More important, leads to a total land loss in Massachu- perhaps, is to develop a method for com- setts of sonic 3,000 hectares by 2025. paring the costs of measures toavert Finally, the third case, assuming a rise of global warming and its consequences 48 centimeters.costsMassachusetts against the costs of adaptation. But for nearly 4,200 hectares of commercially now, preparing to experience some de- usable area.67 gree of global and regional change in sea Whateverthestrategy,industrial level is a rational response. countries arc in a far better financial po- How can the world move away from sition to react than are developing na- the seemingly universal human tendency tions. Bangladesh, for example, cannot to rcact in the face of disaster but to

I I 0 (96) State of the World 1990 Ignore cumulative, long-term dev clop- endangered coasts and deltas can sa% e ments? An activepublic debate on not only money , but resoui ces as well. coastal development policies is needed, Wherever w etlands and beaches are not extending from the obvious issues of the bordered by permanent structures, they here and nowbeach erosion,river will be able to migrate and reestablish damming and diversion,subsidence, further upland, allow ing society to reap wetland lossto the uncertainties of the intangible ecologicalbenefits of how changes in sea level in a greenhouse biodiversity. world will make matters far worse. Rais- Of course, protection strategies will ing public awareness on the forthcoming Inevitably be carried out where the value changes, developing assessments that of capital investments outweigh other account for all future and present costs, considerations. But again the key is to anddevisingsustainablestrategies plan ahead. As the Dutch discovered, based on those costs are all essential. more money can be saved over the long term if dikes and drainage systems are planned for before rather than after sea An active pu-tic debate on coastal levels have risen considerably. development policiesis needed, A cap on problematic dam-building from the obvious issues of the here and river diversion projects in large del- and now to the uncertainties of a tas would lessen the ongoing destruc- greenhouse world. tion of wetland areas and prevent fur- therreductions in skinentation, thereby minimizing subsidence as well. It is unlikely that the damage done by Takingactionnowtosafeguard coastal areas will have immediate bene- large-scale dams, like the Aswan, can be fits while preventing losses from soaring remedied. As with past projects, how- higher in the event of an accelerated sea ever, analyses of many dams now in the level rise. Limiting coastal development pipeline do not reflect the often massive is a first step, although strategies to ac- present and future environmental or ex- complish this will differ in every country. ternal costs. Better water management Governments may begin oy ensuring and increased irrigation efficiencies can that private property owners bear more both increase crop yields and save water. of the costs of settling in coastal areas. A (See Chapter 3.) Exploring the potential more systematic assessment is needed of gains from conservation may preclude the value of creating dead zones to be the need for many more large-scale left in their natural state versus the eco- dams. The same can be said of curtailing nomic and ecological costs that ongoing development of additional dams for hy- development and the subsequent need dropower by encouraging energy effi- for large-scale protection will entail. ciency and conservation. A new concept of property rights will Additional money is needed to do have to be developed. Unbridled devel- more research on sea level globally and opment of rivers and settlement of vul- regionally. Funds are needed to support nerable coasts and low-lying deltas mean stadies of beach and wetland dynamics, that more and more peopk and property to take more frequent and widespread will be exposed to land loss and poten- measurements of global and regional sea tial disasters arising from storm surges level, and to design cost-effective, envi- and the like. Gov ernments that plan ON er ronmentally benign methods of coping the long term to limit development of with coastal inundation. Holding Back the Sea (97) The majority of developing nations The issue of how to share the costs of most vulnerable to sea level rise can do adaptation equitably may w ell be among little about global warming indepen- the hardest to resolve. Industrial coun- dently. But they have a clear stake in re- tries are responsible for by far the larg- ducing pressures on coastal areas by tak- est share of the greenhouse gases emit- ing immediate actions. Among the most ted into the atmosphere. And no matter important of these is slowing population what strategies poorer nations adopt to growth and, where necessary, changing deal with sea level rise, they will need inequitable patterns of land tenure in in- financial assistance to carry them out. terior regions that promote coastal set- Problems with coastal protection, envi- tlement of endangered areas. Further- ronmental refugees, changes in land and more, the governments of Bangladesh, water allocation, and a host of other is- China, Egypt, India, and Indonesia, to sues will plague poor coastal nations. name just a few, are currently promoting The way industrial countries come to river development projectsthatwill terms with their own liability in the face harm delta ecosystems in the short term of accelerated sea level rise will playa and hasten the date they are lost perma- significant role in the evolution of inter- mmtly to rising seas. national cooperation. 6 Clearing the Air Hilary F French

At a time when issues like global warm- 10 cigarettes a day. And in Mexico, the ing and ozone depletion dominate the capital city is considered a hardship post headlines, air pollution and acid rain can for diplomats because of its unhealthy sound like yesterday's problems. Unfor- air,and some governmentsadvise tunately, evidence to the contrary IS women not to plan on having children widespread. In the West efforts to com- while posted there.' bat air pollution since the first outpour- The environmental impacts of air pol- ing of concern in the early seventies have lution are equally grave. Acid rain and been only marginally successful. In East- air pollution are devastating forests, ern Europe, the Soviet Union, and much crops, lakes, and buildings over wide of the developing world, air pollution is areas of Europe and North America. In- only beginning to be recognized as wor- dications are that the Third World may thy of serious attention. be next in line for widespread damage. Severe health problems related to air The one constant in the air pollution pollution span continents and levels of story over the years has been its growing development. In the United States, some complexity. Just as one problem seems 150 million people breathe air consid- to be coming under control, a new one ered unhealthy by the Environmental arises to replace it. In the West, combat- Protection Agency (EPA). In greater ing smoke and soot emissions from coal- Athens, the number of deaths is six times fired factories and heating greatly im- higher on heavily polluted days than on proved urban air quality, at least until those when the air is relatively clear. In auto-induced pollution emerged as the Hungary, a recent report by the National primary barrier to clean air. Similarly, Institute of Public Health concluded that building tall smokestacks that spew pol- every twenty-fourth disability and every lutants far away from cities seemed at seventeenth death in Hungary is caused first an unqualified boon for air quality. by air pollution. In India, breathing the But the solution to one problem was the air in Bombay is equivalent to smoking genesis of another: it turned tn., _iat sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides An expanded version of this chapter appeared as Worldwatch Paper 94. eh r Pollutton and Acid Ram, A (NO, ) could be transformed in the at- Strategy for the Alnates. mcsphere into acid-forming particles

I 10 .A. J0 Clearing the Air (99; that fall to earth far from theirsource in during the industrial re\ olution, when what is popularly known as acid rain. many cities in Europe and the United Now industrial nations are wakingup States were covered with black shrouds to another front in the battle for clean of coal-derived smoke. On days with airairborne toxic chemical emissions. weather conducive to pollution, sickness Though the full dimensions of this prob- and even death were omnipresent. A lem are as yet unknown, recentlyre- particularly acute episode of "black fog" leased data suggest that billions oftons in London in 1952 claimed 4,000 lives of harmful chemicalsare commonly and left tens of thousands emitted into the air by industries. Once out the stack, these chemicals can be swept by the wind hundreds and even In would be foolhardy to adopt air thousands of kilometers from their pollution strategies that mightun- sourcebeforeeventuallyfallingto earth.2 dermine efforts to slow global Acid rain concerns transfoi med what warming. had once been a national oreven a local issue into an international one. Now the need to dow the buildup of heat-trap- Incidents such as this promptedmany ping greenhouse gases has addeda sup- governments to enact legislation to com- ranational dimension to the air debate. bat the primary pollutants of the day, Because both air pollution and global sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate warming stem largely fromcommon emissions from stationary sources such roots in energy, transp rtation, and in- as power plants, industries, and home dustrial systems, the two problemsare furnaces. Both SO2 and particulatesei- properly considered together whenex- ther alone or in combinationcan raise amining policy options. (See also Chap- the incidence of respiratory diseases ter 2.) It would be particularly foolhardy such as coughs and colds, asthma, bron- to adopt air pollution strategies that chitis, and emphysema. Particulatemat- might undermine efforts to slow global ter (an overall term for a complex and warming. varying measurable mixture of pollu- On this twentieth anniversary of Earth tants in minute solid form) car) carry Day, it is useful to look at what has been heavy metals into the deepest, mostsen- accomplished around the world in the sitive part of the lung.4 realm of air pollution controland what With the aid or pollution control remains to be done. The conclusions equipment and irnrovements in energy apply not only to the West, but also to efficiency,manyindustrialcountries Eastern Europe and the developing have made major strides in reducing world, which have the enviable opportu- emi,sions of these harmful pollutants. nity to learn from the mistakes of others. The United States, for example, cut sulfur oxide emissions by 28 percent between 1970 and 1987 and that of particulates by 62 percent. (See Figure 6-1.) In Japan, sulfur dioxide emissions fell by THE GLOBAL HEALTH 39 percent from 1973 to 1984. Many THREAT West European countries also reduced significantly their emissions in both cate- That air pollution could cause serious gories from power plants, industries, health problems first became evident and heating of buildings.In certain (roo) State of thel'orld 1990

Million early sixties. Growing urbanization in Tons much of the Third World means that 30 ever increasing numbers of people are Sulfur Oxides being exposed to polluted urban air.7 25 A recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and 20- the World Health Organization (WHO) Nitrogen 15 Oxides gives the best picture to date oi the Particulates global spread of SO2 and particulate pol-

10 lution. (See Table 6-1.) In terms of average annual concentrations, 27 of the54 5-Source Envir. cities with data available on sulfur diox- Protection Agency ide for 1980-84 were in excess of or on the borderline of the WHO health stan- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 dard. High on the list were Seoul, Teh- Figure 6-1. Emissions of Selected Pollutants ran, and Shenyang, as well as Madrid, in the United States, 1950ir Paris, and Milan, indicating that SO2 problems are by no means over yet for Europeancities, however, the wide- all industrial countries. Indeed, Milan spread introductionof diesel-fueled topped the list of average annual con- vehicles, which emit large quantities of centrations, with a reading more than particulates and some SG2, threatens to three times the WHO norm. Though negate earlier gains.5 conditions are gradually improving in In Eastern Europe and the Soviet most of the cities surveyed, several in the Union,hastyindustrializationafter ThirdWorldreportedcontinuing World War II powered by the natural deterioration.5 endowment of high-sulfur brown coal Suspended particulate matter poses led to air quality reminiscent of Lon- an even more pervasive threat, especially don's "black fog." The lack of a market in the developing world. Fully 37 of the price signal prevented these countries 41 cities monitored for this averaged ei- from realizing the impressive gains in ther bordei line or excessive levels. An- energy efficiency registered in the West nual average concentrations were as after the oil shocks of the seventies, and much as five times the WHO standard in financial constraints still make invest- Kuwait, Shenyang, Xian, New Delhi, and ments in pollution control a rarity.6 Beijing. The extraordinary levels noted Though emissions data for develop- in some Third World cities can be paring countries are scarce, air quality in tially explained by natural dust; other many cities is already abysmal.Rapid culprits include the black, particulate- plans to expand energy and industrial laden smoke spewed out by diesel-fueled production and the lack of adequate pol- vehicles lacking even the most rudimen- lution control regulations mean that air tary pollution controls, and motor scoot- quality could get even worse. China, for ers equipped with highly polluting two- example, increased coal output more strokeengines. WHO and UNEP than 20 times between 1949 and 1982, concluded that nearly 625 million peo- and plans to continue in this direction. ple around the world are exposed to un- By the end of this decade, annual coal- healthy levels of sulfur dioxide and more burning will double if current targets are than a billionone in five people in the realized. In India, SO2 emissions from worldto excessive levels of suspended coal and oil have nearly tripled since the particulates.9 Cleanng the Arr (loz) Table 6-1. Violations of Sulfur Dioxide andSuspended Particulate Matter Standards, Selected Cities' City Sulfur Doxide2 Pal nculates3 (number of days above standard) New Delhi 6 294 Xian 71 273 Beijing 68 272 Shenyang 146 Tehran 219 104 174 Bangkok 0 97 Madrid 35 60 Kuala Lumpur 0 37 Zagreb 30 34 SR) Paulo 12 31 Paris 46 3 New York 8 Milan 66 n.a. Seoul 87 n.a. 'Averages of readings at a variety of monitoringsites from 1980 to 1984 daily average of 150 micrograms per cubic 2W11O standard is a meter, not to be exceeded more than seven daysper year. 3WHO standard is a daily average of 230 micrograms per cubic meter for suspended particulatematter and 150 micrograms per cubic meter for smoke,also not to be exceeded more thanses en days per year. For Madrid, São Paulo, and Paas, the readingsate of smoke rather than particulates SOURCE: United Nations Environment Programme and WorldHealth Organization. Assessmentofl'rban Air Quality (Nairobi: Global Envilonment MonitoringSystem, 1988).

Nations that built tall stacksto im- then leach from soils and lake sediments prove local air quality may have simply into underground aquifers, streams, and sent their health problems elsewhere: reservoirs,potentiallycontaminating though acid precipitation is best known water supplies and edible fish. Acidic as an ecological threat itis also sus- water can also dissolve toxic metals from pected of having grave healthrepercus- the pipes and conduits of municipalor sions. Sulfur dioxide can be chemically home water systems, poisoning drinking transformed into fine sulfate particles water. In portions of both the United that mix with water in the air, liquefy, States and Sweden, elevated levels of and become aerosols thatcan penetrate certain m -tals have been found in the the deepest, most delicate tissues ofthe water supplies of areas receiving acid lu vs, bringing toxic metals andgases precipitation.h1 along with them. Some researchersbe- Pollutants that stem predominantly lieve the mix may be responsible foras from cars have been fought around the many as 50,000 deaths in Lie United world even less successfully than sulfur States every year-2 percent of totalan- dioxide and particulates. Ozoneagas nual mortality.") formed when hydrocarbons (a product Acid depositionthreatens human of imperfect combustion in vehicleen- health indirectly as well. It can makesev- gines and a by-product ofmany indus- eral dangerous metalsincluding alumi- trial process,-s) react with nitrogenox- num, cadmium, mercury, and lead ides (produced by both cars andpower more soluble than usual. The metals can plants) in the presence of sunlightis

16 (102) State of the World 1990 one of the most worrying pollutants in cording to the Natural Resources De- many areas. Recent U.S. research sug- fense Council, New York City air vio- geststhatozone causesshort-term lated the federal health standard on 34 breathing difficulty and long-term lung day stwo to three times a week all sum- damage in tower concentrations than mer long. In Washington, the standard previously believed. Other pollutants of was topped every third day. on average, concern emitted in substantial quantity during the summer months. And in Los by automobiles include carbon monox- Angeks, ozone ley els during the 1988 ide, nitrogen dioxide by itself, lead, and smog season surged above the federal toxic hydrocarbons such as benzene, tol- standard on 172 days. Alltold, the uene, xylene, and ethylene dibromide. American Lung Association estimates (See Table 6-2.) 1 2 that 382 counties, home to more than Ozone has become a seemingly intrac- half of all Americans, are currently out of table health problem in many parts of compliance with the EPA ozone stan- the world. In the United States, the sum- dard.' 3 mer of 1988one of the hottest and dri- Western Europe had its summer of est on recordwas the worst year for 1988 in 1989. when unusually sunny ground-level ozone in over a decade. Ac- conditions in some countries led to high Table 6-2. Health Effects of Pollutants from Automobiles'

Pollutant Health Effect Carbon Monoxide Interferes with blood's abilit) to absorb oxygen. which impairs perception and thinking, slows reflexes, causes drowsiness. and can cause unconsciousness and death; if inhaled by pregnantwomen.may threaten gi owth and mental development of fetus.

Lead Affects circulatory, reproductive, nervous, and kidney systems; suspected of causing hyperactivity and lowered learning ability in children; accumulates in bone and other tissues, so hazardous even after exposure ends.

Nitrogen OxidLs Can increase susceptibility to iral infections such as influenza. irritate the lungs. and cause bronchitis and pneumonia.

Ozone h ritates mucous membranes of respiratory system; causes coughing, choking, impaired lung function; reduces resistance to colds and pneumonia; can aggravate chi onic heart disease. asthma, bronchitis. emphysernit.

Toxic Emissions A broad category including man) different compounds that are suspected of causing cancer, reproductive problems. and birth defects; benzene, for one, a known carcinogen. lAutomohlesarc a primary source. but not the only source, of these pollutants. souttcEs. National Clean Air Coalition. The Clean .10 AO .1 Briefing Book for Monbm olConpeks(Washington. D.G.1935).John D. Graham et al.. "The Potential 1lealth Benefits of ControllingI hiiiidous tiPolht- tants," in John Blodgett. ed.. Health Benefit., of .fir Pollution Control .1 Mauston (Washington. 1) C Congres- stonal Research Service. 1989). Clearing the Air (103 ) ozone levels. In the normally cloudy emissions fell by 96 percent between United Kingdom, for example, readings 1970 and 1987 as a result of this rela- above WHO standardson several days tionship, in conjunction with national prompted calls for a "smog alert"sys- legislation requiring steep reductions in tem. In the rest of Europe, a monitoring the lead content of gas burned in old network run by the Organisation for Ec- cars not equipped with converters. As a onomic Co-operation and Development result, the average lead level in Ameri- (OECD)though not compieteindi- cans' blood dropped bymore than one cates that ozone levels in excess of WHO third between 176 ano 1980.17 suggested levels occur at least occasion- ally over much of the continent." Information is scarce on ozone condi- In Mexico City, 7 out of 10 tions new- inEastern Europe, the Soviet borns were found to have lead lev- Union, and the developing world. Asve- hicle fleets grow, however, conditions els in their blood in excess of WHO are likely to worsen in many areas. Latin norms. America appears to havea grave problem, due to a combination of conducive weather conditions and rapidlygrowing Most of the world, however, mandates fleets of vehicles lacking pollutioncon- neither converters nor theuse of un- trols. In Mexico City, the relatively le- leaded gas. The WHO/UNEPreport es- nient government standard ofa one- timated that a third of North American hour ozone peak of 0.11parts per and European city dwellersare exposed million, not to be exceededmore than to either marginal or unacceptablecon- once daily, is topped more than 300 days centrations of lead in the air.Paris a yearover twice as often as Los An- topped the list of a limited sample, with geles violatesits much stricter stan- an annual average concentration far in dard.16 excess of the WHO guideline. In a study Emissions of carbon monoxide and ni- in Mexico City, 7 out of 10 newborns trogen oxides remain a problem even were found to have lead levels in their where catalytic converters have been in- blood in excess of WHO norms.18 troduced on carsAustralia, Austria, In the United States, long-overdueat- Canada, Japan, Norway, South Korea, tention is finally being paid to the health Sweden, Switzerland, and the United threat posed by airborne toxic chemicals Statesnot to mention those where they from industrial sources. Such chemi- have not. The recent WHO/UNEPre- calswhich can cause cancer and birth port estimated that 15-20 percent of and genetic defectshave often fallen urban residents in North America and through the regulatory crack. Thecur- Europe are exposed to unacceptably rent wave of concern has been fueled by high levels of nitrogen dioxide and 50 EPA's recent announcement that 2.7 bil- percent to unhealthy carbon monoxide lion pounds of hazardous pollutants concentrations.16 were released into the air by industries By fortuitouscoincidence,cars in 1987, including 235 million pounds of equipped with catalytic converterscan- known cancer-causing chemicals. Even not tolerate leaded gas. Where they are this number is an underestimate,as it mandatory, the use of lead-freegas has omits sources such as waste dumps, dry resulted in impressive emissions reduc- cleaners, and cars, and releases into soil tions,withunequivocalbenefitsto or water that enter the air through evap- human health. In the United States, lead oration. The true numbermay be in ex- (104) State of the IVoild 1990 cess of 4.8 billion pounds annually, EPA cent in 1955 to 17.3 percent in 1984. In admits.13 India, pesticide production increased In a 1987 study, the agency concluded from 1,460 tons in 1960 to 40,680 in that air toxic emissions may cause 2,000 1980nearly thirt;fold. Production of cancer deaths a rnr. Because the study dyes and pigments grew at a comparable tallied the effects of only a third of the pace over the same period, reaching 30,- carcinogenic chemicals, it was likely an 850 tons by 1980. Most of these coun- underestimate. If all the hundreds of tries have few pollution controls and lit- chemicals emitted into the air had been tle environmental regulation.22 included and their synergistic effects Recent evidence suggests that toxic air considered, the numbei would probably emissionslike acid depositioncan be be far higher. Other studies have found cairied great distances before falling to high cancer rates in communities near the ground. This explains in part why certain types of factories in West Vir- DDT, presumably blown in from Central ginia and Louisiana. For example, in America or Mexico, is being found in the West Virginia's Kanawha Valleyhome Great Lakes years after the pesticide was to roughly 250,000 people and 13 major banned in the United States and Canada. chemical plantsstate health depart- And why researchers at McGill Univer- inent records show that between 1968 sity in Montreal have found DDT and and 1977 the incidence of respiratory polychlorinated biphenyls throughout cancer was more than 21 percent above the Eskimos' food chain, including in the national average. According to EPA bears, fish, berries, and snow.23 statisucs, a lifetime of exposure to the Putting a dollar value on all these airborne concentrations of chloroform, health costs of air pollution is difficult, as ethylene oxide, and butadiene in this it involves judgments about the worth of valley could cause cancer in one resident good health and human life. The few in 1,000." guesses made suggest a very high price. Unfortunately, similar data are not Thomas Crocker of the University of available for other countries. Wherever Wyoming, for one, estimates that air uncontrolled polluting industries such pollution costs the United Statesas as chemical plants, metals industries, much as $40 billion annually in health and paper manufacturers exist, however, care and lost productivity. A study con- emissions levels are undoubtedly high. ducted for Los Angeles officials con- Measurements of lead and cadmium in cluded that the proposed air quality the soil of .,.he upper Silesian towns of management plan for the region (de- Olkosz and Slawkow in Poland, for in- scribed later in this chapter) would save stance, are among the highest ever re- $9.4 billion a year in health care ex- corded anywhere in the world. The gov- pensesmore than three times what it is ernment is considering a ban on growing projected to cost.24 vegetables in several Silesian towns due to concentrations of lead,zinc, cadmium, and mercury that are 30-70 percent higher than World Health Organi- zation norms." THE ECOLOGICAL TOLL Airborne toxic chemical emissions are likely to rise rapidly in developing coun- Though concern for human health was tries as polluting industries arc built. the motivating factor behind the world's The Third World's share of world iron first control laws, the last 20 years have and steel production rose from 3.6 per- demonstrated that air pollution pos,.s an Clearing the Air (105) equally grave threat to the natural and nous indications. Extensive investiga- built environments. Ecosystemsare actions in the seventies revealed that acid tually often damaged at lower levels of deposition was indeed acidifying water pollution than humans are,a fact not yet and killing fish and other aquaticorga- adequately reflectedinairpollution nisms in geologically susceptibleareas standards. Fish less lakes andstreams, of Scandinavia and Noi th America. (See dying forests, and faceless ancient sculp- Table 6-3)25 tures all provide sad testament to the In recent years, large areas of the destructionthatindustrialization has world have been found to fall into this wrought. worrying category of "geologicallysus- The first warning came in the late six- ceptible." In the United States, much of ties,whenscientistsinScandinavia the Great Lakes region, several south- began to suspect that SO2 emissions eastern states, and many of the moun- from the more urban and industrialized tainous areas of the West appear to be at countries of Europe, suchas the United risk, in addition to the Northeast, where Kingdom and West Germany, might be damage has been evident forsome time. responsible for declining fish stocks in Half the 700,000 lakes in the six their eastern lakes. American scientists who provinces of Canada are deemedex- soon did extensive studies of acidity at tremely acid-sensitive, as are largeareas the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in all western provinces, the Yukon, the in New Hampshire found similar omi- Northwest Ten itories, and Labrador. In Table 6-3. Evidence of Acidified Lakes,Selected Countries Coun try Evidence Canada Ovel 14,000 lakes strongly acidified, and 150,000in the East (one in seven) suffering biological damage.

Finland Survey of 1,000 lakes indicates that those witha low acid-neutralizing capacity are distributedacross country; 8 percent of these lakes have no neutralizing capacity;most stiongly acidified ones are located in southernFinland. Norway Fish in waters covering 13,000 square kilometerseliminated, and affected in waters over a further 20,003square kilometers.

Sweden 14,000 lakes unable to support sensitive aquaticlife and 2,200 nearly lifeless.

United Kingdom Sonic acidified lakes in southwestern Scotland,in western Wales, and in the Lake District.

United States About 1,000 acidified lakes and 3,000 marginallyaedic ones, per Environmental Defense Fund; 1984 EPA study found 552 strongly acidic lakes and 964 marginally acidicones. somicesjim Ketcham-Colwill, "Acid Rain. ScienceandControl Issues," Ens iron'nental and Energy Study Institute Special Report, July 12, 1989; U.N. EconomicCommission for Europe, "Cturent Geogiaphical Extent of Acidification in Rivers, Lakes, and Reservoirsin the ECE Region" (diaft), June 15, 1988. (ro6) State of the Woad 1990 Europe, similalN ul nerable parts of the cent of the total nitrogen load currently Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Switz- entering the CI,,.!sapeake. If emissions erland, Italy, West Germany, and Ire- continue their upward climb, this share land have been added to the better will rise to 42 percent by the year 2030. known areas of Scandinavia and the Other research has shown that 27 per- United Kingdom. Vast parts of Asia, cent of the Baltic Sea's nitrogen load Africa, and South America are also acid- comes from the air.28 sensitive.26 In the early eighties, concern about Canadian biologist David Schindler the possible effects of acid deposition warns that the ecological consequences spread from lakes and streams to forests. aregreat. Though concerninitially Signs of widespread damage attributed focused on damage to fi.,h, many other to acid deposition first arose in West aquatic organisms can also be affected. Germany. The share of forests there To investigate the biological impact of showing signs of damage rose from 8 '.hisprocess,Schindler and hiscol- percent in 1982, the first year a survey leagues deliberately acidified two lakes was done, to 34 percent in 1983, to 50 in northwest Ontario. When the first percent by the following year. It peaked !)ke went from a pH of 6.5 to 5.0 over in 1986, at 54 percent, and has since de- tight years, approximately a third of the clined slightlyto 52 percent in 1988. species studied were eliminated. Ex- Because dead trees are not included in trapolating from these findings, Schin- the surveys, however, slightly lower per- dler estimates that in the Adirondack centages do not necessarily mean an im- and the Poconos-Catskills regions, more proving situation.29 than half the sensitive species such as Wide public debate about the causes mollusks, leeches, and crustaceans have and consequences of forest decline fol- been wiped out.27 lowed its discovery. Though the exact mechanisms are still not precisely under- stood, most scientists believe a complex Fishless lakes and streams, dying mixture of pollutantsincluding acid forests, and faceless ancient sculp- deposition, ozone, and heavy metals renders forests susceptible to a range of tures all provide sad testament to natural stresses, such as droughts, ex- thedestructionindustrialization tremes of heat and cold, and blights, that has wrought. combine to cause the decline. Though initialfears of massive forest death throughout the continent have not been Recent evidence suggests that the borne out, a high econorn _ and ecologi- threat to coastal waters may be of similar cal toll has already been paid. magnitude. A 1988 study by the Envi- Since the initial West German alarm, ronmental Defense Fund concluded that concern about forest damage has spread acid deposition is a majoi contributor to throughout the world. In Europe, sev- the degradation of the Chesapeake Bay. eral countries have initiated annual sur- By a process known as eutrophication, veys. The results are now brought to- nitrogen from a variety of sources "fer- getherinan annualassessment of tilizes" algae to the extent O.,it ch,Aes European forest damag e. published by off the oxygen supply and blocks the the U.N. Economic Commission for sunlight required by othei aquatic plants Europe. The 1988 report found at least and animals. The study found that air- preliminary signs of damage in each of borne nitrates account for fully 25 per- the 26 areas surveyed. Twenty-two of

1 21 Clearing the Air (107) the surveys:nost of them national mous. Environmental scientists in Po- found 30 percent or more of their forests land predict that forest loss willcost the to be damaged; for eight, the figure was country $1.5 billion by 1992. Econo. half or more. Across the continent, mists Werner Schulz and Lutz Wickees- nearly 50 million hectares have been timate that forest damage willcost West identified as damaged, representing 35 Germany between 5.5 and 8.8 billion percent of Europe's total forested area. deutsche marks ($2.98-4.77 billion)an- (See Table 6-4.) nually over the next 70 ycars depending North America may be next in line. upon how strictly emissions are con- Though the damage documentedto trolled. The losses are not onlymone- date has been mostly restrictedto iso- tary: Fichtelberg Mountain along the lated, high-altitude environments,many East German and Czechoslovakian bor- fear it is only a matter of time before it der once attracted many visitors who spreads to other areas. In the United scaled it to marvel at the view. "Now States, some declines, such as those of they weep," writes Mike Leary of the Jeffrey and ponderosa pines in Califor- Philadelphia Inquirer. "What a horrible nia and of eastern white pines, have been tragedy," said one woman gazing from conclusively linked to high concentra- the summit at the viov below:a huge tions of ground-level ozone. In others, expanse of dead trees and broad brown such as those of the red spruce, Fraser patches where forests once stood.32 fir, yellow pines, andsugar maple, re- In addition to forests, air pollution searchers are less certain about the role also threatens crops. Ozone is the pri- of air pollution. Even with these species, mary concern, although SO2, nitrogen however, high levels of recorded pollu- oxides, and sulfates and nitratesare also tion often correspond to areas ofexten- thought to be potentially harmful. The sive damage, suggesting a link." most comprehensive studies on this have On the summit of Mount Mitchell in been conducted in the United States. A North Carolinawhere essentiallyall 1987 government report by the National the red spruce and Fraser fir treesare Acid Precipitation Assessment Program now deadozone levels more than half concluded that current levels ofozone the time exceed those at which tree dam- were reducing crop yields by 1 percent age has been proved to occur in con- or less for sorghum and corn, by about trolled laboratory studies. Cloudsam- 7 percent for cotton and soybean, and by ples taken on this mountain during 1986 more than 30 percent for alfalfa. Total showed a pH varying from 5.4 (slightly crop losses were estimated to be in the acidic) to as low as 2.2 (about thesame range of 5-10 percent ofproduction. Ac- as vinegar), with a mean of 3.4. "It's cording to one estimate, this represents plain," says plant pat4ologist Robert an ec nomic loss of some $5.4 billion.33 Bruck, who has been studying damage in Reports of similar damage inthe this area for years, "that noone has Third World are starting to be heard. proved, or ever will, that air pollution is Damage in China's southwest forests is killing the trees up here. But farmore being increasingly linked by scientiststo quickly than we ever expected, we've air pollution and acid rain caused bya ended up with a highly correlated bunch heavy reliance on high-sulfur coal. In of datahigh levels of air pollutioncor- Sichuan's Maocaoba pine forest,more related to a decline we're watching in than 90 percent of the trees have died. progress."3I On Nanshan hill in Chongqing, the big- The economic toll to the forestry and gest city in southwest China, an 1,800- tourism industries is potentiallyenor- hectare forest of densemasson pine has " (Io8) Stale of lhe World 1990 Table 6.4. Forest Damage in Europe, 1988 Estimated Total Arca Share Country or Area Forest Areal Damaged of Total (thousand hectares) (percent) Czechoslovakia 4,578 3,250 71 Greece 2,034 1,302 64 United Kingdom 2,200 1,408 64 Estonia, Soviet Union 1,795 933 52 West Germany 7,360 3,827 52 Tuscany, Italy 150 77 51 Liechtenstein 8 4 50 Norway= 5,925 2,963 50 Denmark 466 228 49 Poland 8,654 4 240 49 Netherlands 311 149 48

Flanders, Belgium 115 53 46 East Germany 2,955 1,300 44 Bulgaria 3,627 1,560 43 Switzerland 1,186 510 43 Luxembourg 88 37 42 Finland 20,059 7,823 39 Sweden 23,700 9,243 39 Wallonia, Belgium= 248 87 35 Yugoslavia 4,889 1,564 32 Spain I 1,792 3,656 31

Ireland= 334 100 30 Austria 3,754 1,089 29 France 14,4q0 3,321 23 Hungary 1,637 360 22 Lithuania, SovietUnion 1,810 380 21 Bolzano, Italy 307 61 20 Portugal 3,060 122 4 Other3 13,474 n.a. P.a.

Total4 140,956 49,647 35 'For areas %here only conifers surveyed, "wtal forest area" means total forested area of conifers For Yugoslasia, which conducted only a regional sun ey, "total forest area" means total area survey ed. 2Conifers only . In Ireland. only trees less than 60 years old ss ere assessed sIncludes unsurveyed portions of countries that hase dor, -egional and corufer-only surveys.+Does not Include Turkey or any of the Soviet Union except for Estonia and Lithuania. sOURCL. Worldwatch Institute, based on United Nations Emironnient Programme and Ui-ted Nations Economic Comm ssron for u, rope. "Forest Daniage and Air Pollutron. Report a the 1988 Forest Damage Survey in Europe," Glotn, Lnvironment Monitoring Sysr.. 1989. C-gring Ihe Air (109) been reduced by almost half. Both these busts," says New York Times correspon- regions have highly acidic rain and ele- dent Paul Hofmann, are being "trans- vated levels of sulfur dioxide. China's mogrified into noseless and earless plas- Science and Technology Daily reported in ter grotesques." In the Katowice region May 1989 that acid rain is causing seri- of southern Poland, trains must slow ous iau.age in Hunan Province, includ- down in certain places because the rail- ing crop losses worth about 1billion waylines have corroded, apparently yuan ($260 million at official exchange from acid pollution." rates) annually. Localized damage to In the United States, air pollution may trees and crops from air pollution, and prevent the nation's historical monu- possibly from acid deposition, has also ments from ever reaching the ripe old been reported in Chile, Brazil, and Mex- age of Europe's. Already, Independence ico." Hall in Philadelphia, where the Declara- Elevated levels of acidity andozone tion of Independence was signed, is ex- have been found in tropical rain forests. periencing damage. At the Gettysburg In Latin America, the pollution isat- Civil War battlefield, every statue or tab- tributed to the enormous fires that rage kt made of bronze, limestone, or sand- as cattle ranchers and settlers clear land. stone is being slowly but inexorably In Africa, it stems from fires that burn eaten away. Both the Statue of Liberty for months across thousands of kilome- and the Washington Monument are also ters of African savannas. They are set by reportedly threatened." farmers and herders to clear shrubs and Again, the Third World is following permit the growth of crops andgrass. the example of the First. The Taj Mahal Tropical areas 're thought to be espe- appears to be endangered b) emissions cially vulnerable to acidification, because from an upwind oil refinery that are their soils are naturally low in buffering eroding its marble and sandstone sur- agents.35 facesRecent research has found that In contrast to damage to lakes and for- acid rain falling on the Yucatan Penin- ests, that to the built environment is sula and much of southern Mexico is de- most frequently a local problem. Sulfur stroying the temples, murals, and mega- dioxide and its acidic chemical deriva- liths of the Mayans. The primary source tives are believed to be the chief culprits, of the damaging emissions is believed to though nitrogen oxides, ozone, and be uncapped Mexican oil wells and oil- other pollutants also contribute." field smokestacks near Coatzacoalcos Corrosion of historical monuments is and Ciudad del Carmen on the Gulf of particularly evident in Europefrom Mexico. ExhaustL. um tour buses is also the Acropolis, to the Royal Palace in Am- thought to contribute to the decay." sterdam, to the medieval buildings and The costs of materials corrosion tona- monuments of Krakow, Poland.Al- tionaleconomiesaremonumental. though some decay is to be expected in Though quantifying the exact toll is dif- structures dating to antiquity, pollution ficult,givenscientificuncertainties is greatly speeding the process. T.N. about the precise mechanisms of decay Skoulikidis, a Greek specialist on acid and difficultie;indistinguishing be- corrosion, has estimated that Athenian tween natural and acid-induced erosion, monuments have deteriorated n ore in some rough attempts have been made. the past 20-25 years from pollution than Researchers at the Swedish Corrosion in the previous 2,400. Damage to histori- Institute estimated in 1984 that corro- calartifacts and edificesisevident sion to mw.erials of all kind cost Sweden throughoutItaly. "Classicmarble $2.5 billion per year. A 1980 study for

1 IN (iro) Slate of the World 1990 the Dutch Ministry of Health and Envi- The predominant technique used to ronmental Protection estimated damage reduce sulfur dioxide has been to put to monuments, libraries, and archives in flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) technol- the Netherlands at $10-15 million annu- ogy, popularly known as scrubbers, on ally. Studies conducted in the United coal-burning power plants. Scrubbers States ha we suggested a multibillion-dol- can remove as much as 95 percent of a lar price tag. When these numbers are given plant's SO2 emissions. Among added to the other costs exacted by air members of OECD, nearly140,000 pollution and acid rain, reducing emis- megawatts of power plant capacity were sions begins to look cheap by compari- either equipped with FGD or had it son." under construction at the beginning of 1988. The United States led inIfil "scrubbed" capacity, with 62,000 megawatts. But only 20 percent of the total REDUCTION ..;... RATEGI ES U.S. coal-fired capacity was equipped with scrubbers as of January 1987, com- The tremendous damage to health and pared with roughly 40 percent in West erviironment inflicted by air pollution Germany, 50 percent in Sweden, 60 per- 'and acid rain has not been lost on the cent in Austria, and 85 percent in Japan. public or on policymakers. In the western, industrial world, the last 20 years By the end of the decade, the figures will has been a period of intensive political be 70 percent in Italy, 85 percent in and scientific activity aimed at clearing West Germany, 100 percent in the Neth- the air. The aproaches to date, how- erlands, but still only 30 percent in the ever, have tended to be technological United States.42 Band-Aids rather than efforts to address Though scrubbers have been rare the roots of the problem: inappropriate elsewhere, this is slowly beginning to energy, transportation, and industrial change. Czechoslovakia, for example, systems. Though they have achieved announced a major new environmental some success, a more comprehensive protection initiative in early 1989, in- strategy will be needed to confront the cluding a projected $1.3-billion invest- air quality challenges of the nineties. ment by the mid-nineties in desulfuriza- The most widespread technological tion equipment at nine of the country's intervention has been the introduction most heavily polluting power plants. of electrostatic precipitators and bag- China indicated in December 1987 that house filters for the control of particu- it would, for the first time, equip a late emissions from power plants. Their planned coal-fired plant with FGD.43 use is now required in virtually all OECD For control of nitrogen oxide emis- countries (Western Europe, the United sions from power plants, countries have States, Canada, and japan). Though pursued a variety of approaches with such technologies can reduce particulate mixed results. The most simple have emissions directly from the smokestack beenvariousformsof combustion by as much as 99.5 percent, they do modifications, which yield reductions of nothing to prevent acidic particles such some 30-50 percent. To date,the as sulfates and nitrates from forming United States has invested heavily in this outside the smokestack ,1 om gaseous approach, and the United Kingdom and emissions. Such particles can wreak par- Portugal somewhat. More expensive, ticularly great harm on both human but also more effective,is a process health and the environment.'" known as selective catalytic reduction

I. 2 5 Cleanng the Air (ii (SCR). This can reduce emissions by make no significant contribution to solv- 80-90 percent. Japan pioneered the ing global warming. For these reasons, technology in the seventies, primarily as they are best viewed as a bridge to the an antismog measui e. At the end of day when energy-efficient societies are 1986, it had 91 units in operation, which the norm and when renewable sources was about 90 percent of total OECD- such as solar, wind, and water power member installations and 54 percent of provide the bulk of the world's energy. the country's fossil-fuel-fired generating (See also Chapters 2 and 10.) capacity. West Germany and Austria have more recently embarked on ambitious SCR construction programs.44 Approaches to date have tended to Also under intensive investigation are so-called clean coal technoloi;ies that be technological Band-Aids rather lower emissions of both SO2 and NOx than efforts to address the roots of during combustion. Most prominent the problem. among them are various fluidized bed combustion technologies and a process knoyn as integrated gasification-com- Energy efficiency is an essential strat- bined cycle, whereby coal is transformed egy for reducing emissions from power into a gas, which is then used to run a plants, though it is rarely promoted as turbine. Excess heat is tapped to pro- such. The American Council for an En- duce steam, which powers a second tur- ergy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) has bine. These technologies have the ad- identified cost-effective, widely available vantages of offering deep cuts in SO2 conservation measures that could bring and NO% while simultaneously burning electricity demand 15 percent below more efficiently. Some of them are be- utility forecasts in a region of the U.S. ginning to be commercialized, though Midwest that is responsible for 33 per- others are stillat the demonstration tent of the nation's utility-generated sul- phase.45 fur dioxide emissions. Implementing In general, new power plants are this amount of conservation would cut being fairly tightly controlled in most SO2 emissions by 7-11 percent between western countries. The greater problem 1992 and 2002 and NO emissions by an comes in retrofitting existing facilities. undetermined amount.47 This is important, particularly as con- Equally important, the savings result- structionof new power plants has ing from avoided power plant construc- slowed considerably in the industrial tion can more than offset the cost of world. To date, Denmark, the Nether- emissions controls at existing plants. In- lands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, deed, ACEEE found that consumers in and West Germany are the only OECD the Midwest could realize a net savings members to have undertaken significant of $4-8 billion if emissions control and retrofitting.46 accelerated conservation were both pur- Though the technologies just outlined sued as part of a national effort to halve providenecessary immediate reduc- SO2 emissions, as compared with a sce- tions, they are not the ultimate solution. nario in which neither occur. Emissions For one, they can create environmental control in the absence of efficiency in- problems of their own, such as the need vestments would run in the billions of to dispose of scrubber ash, a hazardous dollars.45 waste. Second, they do little if anything Around the world, it is essential that to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, so governments put economic incentives 1 r rt A. 4, 0 (112) Stateofthe World 1990 for energy reform into place as part of an average of `l5 percent, and nitrogen their air quality suategies. One way of oxides by 62 percent over the life of a doing that would be to allow utilities that vehiclerising vehicle fleets are over- reduce customers'bills through effi- whelming theirefficacy.In addition, ciency investments to earn a slightly converters actually slightly increase car- higher rate of return than otherwise. An- bon dioxide emissions. Again, more fun- other is by market-based power planning damental additional measures are re- systems that incorporate environmental q uire?,.51 costs, thereby encouraging both effi- Most basically, reducing urban air pol- ciency and renewable energy. The State lution may require a major shift away of New York is already pioneering this from automobiles as the cornerstone of approach: fossil-fuel-based generating transportation systems. As congestion sources in two utility regions in the state ireases exponentially in most major must add nearly a penny per kilow. I.:- cities, driving to work is becoming in- hour to their costs to account for air pol- creasingly unattractive anyway. Conve- lution-Id an additional half a cent per nient public transportation, increased kilowatt 'lour to account for othei envi- car pooling, and facilitated bicycle com- ronment, ' externalities.49 muting are for many cities the cheapest, most effective, most seusible way to proceed. (See Chapter 7.) Reducing urban air pollution may Indeed, in many cities around the require a major shift away from au- world driving restrictions already exist. In Florence, Italy, the heart of the city tomobiles as the cornerstone of has been turned into a pedestrian mall transportation systems. during daylight hours. Central Rome is off-limits to normal car tniffic for sever hours a day, during the morning and Thoughmaterialsrecycling has evening rushhours. Budapest bans caught the public's attention as a way to motor traffic from all but two streets in save on scarce landfill space, its pollu- the downtown area. Mexican President tion prevention potential is equally im- Carlos Salinas de Gortari has asked for portant. Each ton of newsprint made prohibitions on driving in the city on from waste rather than wood lowers en- particularly bad days. In Santiago, one ergy use by one fourth to three fifths and fifth of an vehicles are kept off the streets air pollutants by some 75 percent. Alu- each weekday based on their license- minum produced from recycled cans plate number. Lagos has had a similar rather than virgin ore cuts emissions of system in place since 1976, with odd and nitrogen oxides by 95 percent and of sul- even plate numbers taking tunis. Their fur dioxide by 99 percent.59 experience, however, shows that such When it comes to reducing automo- plans must be implemented with care tive pollution, a similai preventive ap- wealthy residents began to buy two cars, proachisneeded. To date, engine one with an odd-numbered license and modifications and catalytic converters the other, an even.52 have been the principal strategies used Short of an all-out ban on private cars to lower harmful emissions. However, in downtown areas, city governments even in countries that have mandated can encourage commuters to leave their converterswhich reduce a car's hydro- cars at home by making public transpor- carbon emissions by an average of 87 tationinexpensiveandconvenient. percent, carbon monoxide emissions by Eradicating or taxing free parking belle- Clearing the An ( 113 ) fits and collecting hefty tolls for roaduse ton of hydrocarbons reduced, and Un- are othet means toward this end. plementing inspection and maintenance Oneoptionunderconsideration programs $2,100-5,800 per ton of re- around the world is the widespread in- ductions, whereas replacing gasoline troduction of vehicles powered by alter- withmethanolwouldcost $8,700- native fuels, such as methanol, ethanol, 51,000 pei ton reduced.54 natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity. A clear priority as society struggles Although these alternatives would re- with both air pollution and globalwarm- duce emissions, in some cases substan- ing is to encourage the manufacture and tially, their widespread use runs the risk purchase of automobiles thatare both of falling into the classic anti-pollution low in emissions and high in fuelecon- pitfall: solving one problem by substitut- omy. There is a direct relationship being another. tween fuel economy improvements and For example, thotIgh most analysts carbon dioxide emissions reductions, agree that methanol would yield some but a far more ambiguous one between reductions in ozone formation, vehicles fuel economy and "conventional" pollu- run on this fuel produce two to five times tants. In the latter case, the relationship as much formaldehyde, a potentially car- is complicated by variables suchas com- cinogenic compound, as those run on bustion temperature and amount and gasoline do. And if methanol is made type of catalysts used. from coal, as it might well eventually be Though the automobile industry has if it were relied on in a substantialway, claimed over the years that the goals of carbon dioxide emissions would likely reducing emissions and improving fuel be 20-160 percent higher than incars economy are in direct conflict, both EPA using gasolinean untenable idea ina and OTA maintain that this is not the greenhouse world. In addition, metha- case. Some measures chosen to improve nolis a highly poisonous, colorless, emissions may cntail a fuel economypen- odorless substance that could contami- alty, but this can be avoided. Indeed,an nate groundwater in the event of leaking analysis by Chris Calwell of the Natural storage tanks, and that could seriously Resources Defense Council of 781car harm someone if splashed on them dur- models shows that the 50 most efficient ing refueling or even kill them if acciden- emitted one third less hydrocarbons than tally ingested.53 the average car and roughly half as much The problems posed by alternative as ._:ie 50 least efficient ones.55 fuels are not necessarily insurmounta- An incenti) e sy stem could help push ble. If such programs are to render real consumers and carmakers in the nght benefits, however, they must be imple- direction.AnalystsattheLawrence mented with great care as onecompo- Berkeley Laboratories have suggested nent of a broader effort. that a revolving fund could give purchas- Less glamorous but perhaps more ers of low-emission, ffiel-efficient vehi- practical would be measures such asre- cles a rebate financed by a tax onnew ducing the volatility of gasoline and in- high-emission, gas-guzzling cars. Con- troducing widespread inspection and sumer demand would then spur the in- maintenance programs to ensure that dustry to produce such autos. An inter- emissions control systems are function- mediary step would be to at least provide ing properly. Indeed, a recent U.S. Of- consumers with information as to how fice of Technology Assessment (OTA) polluting a car is. Just as a given model's report concluded that reducing gasoline fuel economy is common knowledge,so volatility would cost only $120-750per would be its emissions rating.56

1 r . k. 4, 5 (IL) State of the World 1990 As with power plant and auto emis- provide for the release of information sions, efforts to control air toxics will be about emissions from industr;a1 plants, most successful if they focus on waste although the European Economic Com- minimization rather than simply on con- munity (EEC) is reported to be consider- trol. Such a strategy also helps prevent ing a draft directive on freedom of infor- waste from just being shifted from onc mation on environmental matters that form to another. Many control technolo- would improve thi,, somewhat. Glasnost gies, such as scrubbers and filters, pro- is gradually improving the environmen- duce hazardous solid wastes that must tal data flow in some of Eastern Europe then be disposed of on land. OTA has and in the Soviet Union, though much concluded it is technically and economi- progress in this area remains to be made. cally feasible for U.S. industries to lower Grassroots groups in some developing production of wastes and pollutants by countries are also beginning to break up to 50 percent within the next few down the secrecy barriers." years.Similarreductionpossibilities exist in most other countries.57

The most effective incentive for MOBILIZING FOR CLEANER waste reduction is strict regulation AIR of disposal into the land, air, and water. Though the time seems ripe for reform of the current approach to air pollution control, few policymakers are consider- Probably the most effective incentive ing implementation of the comprehen- for waste reduction is strict regulation of sive strategies that are necessary. Recent disposal into the land, air, and water. developments at the national and inter- This will force up the price of disposal, national levelsthough steps forward making it cost-effective for industries to remain inadequate to the task at hand. reduce waste generation. Certain eco- In the United States, Congress is cur- nomic incentives could also help. For ex- rently debating major amendments to ample, a "deposit-refund" system might the 1970 Clean Air Act. The long-stalled be put in place whereby industries would process was given a boost by the Bush be taxed on the purchase of hazardous administration, which submitted a plan inputs, but refunded for wastes proof its own for Congress to consider. This duced from them that are recovered or active presidential leadership, combined recycled.58 with strong public support for strength- Experience in the United States has ened environmental regulations,has shown that public access to information raised bopes that legislation will soon be about what chemicals a plant is emitting in place that will halve emissions that can be instrumental in spurring a re- cause acid rain, tighten emissions stan- sponse: within weeks of its release of the dards for automobiles significant!y, and informationon emissions mandated require much stricter control of toxic air nnder right-to-know legislation, Mon- pollutants.81 santo announced its intention to cut Though any legislation is an improve- back its toxic air emissions by 90 percent ment over the status quo, the adminis- by 1992.59 tration's proposal misses the opportu- Most European countries have yet to nity ..D addressthe problemata Clearing the Au (715) fundamental level through energy effi- Though the past few years have seen ciency, transportation reform, and waste important iniremental achances in inter- reduction. From this point of view, the national fora, there remains muchroom acid rain provisions are probably the for improvement. Under the auspices of most promising, as they would give the the U.N. Economic Commission for utilities their choice of control tech- Europe, agreements to reduce emissions nique, including energy efficiency. Posi- of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides tiveincentives, however, could have have been reached. The SO2 protocol helped make this the clear first choice for calls for a 30-percent reduction in emis- utilities rather than simply one of many sions or their transboundary flows from options. 1980 levels by 1993. The nitrogen oxide Because air pollution crosses Euro- protocol calls for a freezeon emissions pean borders with impunity (see Table in 1994 at 1987 levels, as wellas further 6-5), international cooperationon re- discussions beginning in 1996 aimedat ducing emissions is essential. Forexam- actual reductions.62 ple, 96 percent of the sulfur deposited in Most but not all major players have Norway originates in other countries. signed on to these protocols, andsome The Norwegians can thus do littleto have made commitments to go beyond save their lakes without the help of trou- them. At least nine countries havenow blesome neigwoors. pledged to bring sulfur dioxide levels Table 6-5. Sulfur Pollution in Selected EuropeanCountries, 1988

Share of Shale of Total Total Emissions Deposition Country Emissions' Deposition Exported2 Imported (thousand tons) (percent) Norway 37 210 76 96 Austria 62 181 74 91 Sweden 110 302 69 89 Switzerland 37 65 81 89 Netherlands 145 104 80 72 France 760 622 67 59 West Germany 750 628 63 56

Czechoslovakia 1,400 659 75 47 Poland 2,090 1,248 68 46 Soviet Union3 5,150 3.201 61 38 Italy 1,185 510 72 36 East Germany 2,425 787 75 92 Spain 1,625 590 72 92 United Kingdom 1,890 636 71 15 Itinkss othei wise nmed, emissions figul esme prdiminalv 1988 data Austi i.i. Sueden, and France arc 1987 data: Italy, 1986, and Spain, 1983.2Mav be deposited ei the in anothei countryor ovei ody of water 3Only the European part or the Soviet Union 'I hus,export hole includes expoi is tihe Asian part of the Soviet Union SOURCE:* Worldwatch Institute, based upon emissions data in Emnolnic Commissionfor Lmope, "Anmial Review of Strategies mid Pokies for An Pollution AbacInent"(draft), Septembei 26, 1989. and on data on transbomidary flows supplied by the Einopean Monitoring and Evaluation Programme.

I 3 0 (116) State of the World 1990 down to less than half of 1980 levels by the linked States in addressing acid rain, 1995; Austria, Liechtenstein, Sweden, it has for the most part been much and West Germany have committed to slower to tackle urban air quality prob- reducing them by two thirds. On nitro- lems.Non-EECcountriessuchas gen oxides, 12 West European nations Austria, Norway, Sweden, and Switzer- have agreed to go beyond the freeze and land have had strong auto emissions reduce emissions by 30 percent by 1998. control legislation in place for several Work is now undei ,-,ny on a protocol years, but the Community has been un- aimed at reducing hydrocarbon emis- able to agree on stringent standards. sions, an ingredient in the formation of This finally changed in June 1989, ground-level ozone.63 when the EEC Council of Environmental A November 1988 EEC directive Ministers ended a nearly four-year de- represents a binding commitment by the bate and approved new standards for members to reduce acid-rain-causing small cars that will be as tough as those emissions significantly. The directive now in effect in the United States. To will lower Community-wide emissions of meet them, small cars will have to be SO2 from existing power plants by a equippedwithcatalyticconverters. total of 57 percent from 1980 levels by Though standards for large cars were al- 2003, and of nitrogen oxides by 30 percent by 1998. The amount each country ready on the books, the EEC Environ- mentCommissionerisconsidering will be required to cut emissions is based on each member-state's contribution to stricter ones for medium and large cars long-rangetransboundarypollution, as well. A Community-wide speed limit level of industrial development, depen- is also being looked at as an air pollution dence on indigenous high-sulfur energy control measure. Although clearly a step resources, and pollution control efforts forward,itis somewhat ironicthat Wore 1980. Belgium and West Ger- Europe sees its adoption of U.S. stan- many, for example, would have to re- dards as a major victory at the same time duce SO2 emissions by 70 percent by that the United States is realizing these 2003, while Ireland could have 25 per- regulations do not go far enough.66 cent higher output and Portugal, 79 per- Los Angeleswith the worst air qual- cent higher.64 ity in the United Statesis one of the These commitments are far better first regions in the world to really under- than nothing. But they are not enough. stand that lasting change will not come For one, it is unclear whether all signato- , tinkering with the status quo. Under ries to the SO2 and NO, protocols will a bold new air quality plan, automobile meet their targets. Second. the reduc- use will be discouraged, public transpor- tions envisioned are too litde and too tation boosted, and household and in- late to protect the envii onment ade- dustrial activities that produce emissions quately. Ecologists suggest that cuts on tightly controlled. For example, paints the order of 90 percent in sulfur and and solventswill have to be refor- nitrogenoxides and 75 percentin mulated, gasoline-powered lawn mow- ground- level ozone are what is really ers and barbecues and fuels that require needed. How individual countries will lightei fluid will be banned, and the choose to meet their given targets re- number of cars per family limited.67 mains an open question. Unfortunately, (nEastei n Europe and the Soviet energy efficiency rarely appears at the Union, aii pollution has only recently top of the lists of options.65 emerged as a potent political issue. Fyo- Though Europe has been quicker than doi Morgun, then head of the So% itt Clearing the in. ( 117 ) Union's State Committee on the Protec- Swedish technology will be exchanged tion of Nature, reported to the Nine- for Soviet natural gas and pulp.69 teenth Communist Party conference in Several countries are giving environ- July 1988 that air pollution levels in 102 mental aid for Eastern Europe. To cite Soviet cities, affecting more than 50 mil- just a few of the many recent initiatives, lion people, were often 10 times higher the U.S. Congress passed legislationthat than the Soviet standard. This official would allocate $40 million in environ- recognition of the problem wasan im- mental assistance for Poland and Hun- portant step forward. Similarly, when gar), a token sum given the magnitude Solidarity sat down with the Polishgov- of the problems, but symbolically impor- ernment in March 1989 for the Round tant nonetheless. The Swedish govern- Table discussions, environmental issues ment recently announced that it plans in general and air pollution in particular to provide Poland with $45 million in figured prominently on the agenda:a aid over the next tin ee years, mostly for fact of enormous significance. More than environmentalprotection.Eastand rhetoric, however, will clearly beneces- West Germanyrecentlyinitiated sary to solve the problems.69 a three-year program to cooperateon To make a dent in their pollution, pollution control. East Germany will Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union contribute 120 million deutsche marks wil; need western technologies as well as ($65 million) and West Germany,300 domestic reform. Given currenteco- million ($163 millon) that willgo to- nomic straits in these countries, how- ward the purchase of advanced coal- ever,"environmental aid" from the burning technology for power plants West will be necessary to help with the and other pollution controlmeasures. purchase of pollution control,energy The two countries will also standardize efficiency, renewable energy, andwaste air pollution data in orderto facilitate reduction technologies. Such aid can be the forecasting of photochemicalsmogs in the best interests of thepurveyor, as that waft across the border.79 stemming pollution elsewhere before it crosses borders is often far cheaper than takingfurtherincrementalstepsat To make a dent in pollution, East- home. Concern about global warming provides added impetus forwestern na- ern Europe and the Soviet Union tions to provide assistance withenergy will need western technologiesas efficiency and renewableenergy. well as domestic reform. Some promising initiatives are already under way. The Natural Resources De- fense Council is cooperating with the So- Air pollutionis just beginning to viet Union on energy efficiency, helping emerge on the political agenda in Third them set up the regulatorystructures World cities as well. Though the thal- that should encourage it. The Rocky lenge is enormous, at least the issue is Mountain Institute has also been advis- starting to be addressed. In Cubatão, ing the Soviet governmenton efficiency. Brazil, a notoriously polluted industrial A Swedish-Soviet committee ofrepre- city known as "the Valley of Death,"a sentatives from both countries'paper five-year-old government clean-upcam- and pulp industries has recently been paign is starting to makea dent in the formed to cooperate on cleaningup the problem. Total emissions of particulates Baltic Sea. Under the committee's plan, were cut from 236,600 kilograms a day (ii8) State of the World 1990 in 1984 :o 70,782 in 1989. Mexico City , ternational Dcvdopment to encounge too, is embarking on an ambitious clean- energy efficiency and i enewable energy up. With the support of the WorldBank through their programs." and the German, Japanese, and United In attempting to help Eastern Europe, States governments, the municipal gov- the Soviet Union, and the Third World ernment hopes to introduce a package of with air pollution problems, western in- measures to cut automotive pollution dustrialcountries should not simply dramatically over the next two to three transfer wholesale the pollution control years.7' strategies that have not been entirely Industrial countries arc involved in a successful at home. An ill-conceived ap- variety of efforts to assist developing proach such as this could do more harm countries with air pollution problems. than good. The International Environmental Bu- The experience of the past several reau in Switzerland and WorldEnviron- decades may not indicate as much, but ment Center in New York help facilitate air pollution is an eminently solvable transfer of pollution-control informa- problem. Tinkcring with the present sys- tion and technology to the Third World. tem, however, will simply not be ade- The World Bank is currently actively ex- quate. A comprehensive approach will ploring ways to step up their air pollu- be necessary that focuses on pollution tionactivities. One proposed World prevention rather than pollution con- Bank-U.N.Development Programme trol. Though such a strategy will require project would help urban Asian govern- some investment, the payback willbe ments confront environmental prob- great. Faccd with ever mounting costs to lems, including air pollution. Legislation human health and the environment, the currently beforctheU.S.Congress question is not how can society afford to would, in the interests of slowing global control air pollution. How can we afford warming, require the U.S. Agency for In- not to?

I ^J.-, A 00 7 Cycling Into the Future Marna D. Lowe

In a world so transformed by the auto- amount of driving in the world's major mobile that whole landscapes and life- urban areas is pushing congestion to in- styles bear its imprint, a significant fact tolerable levels. Traffic jams and the by- goes unnoticed. Although societies the products of gasoline combustionair world overdefinetransportationin pollution in cities, acid rain, and global terms of engine power, the greatest climate changepoint to the need for an share of personal transport needs is met alternative to the automobile. by human power. A few countries do encourage bicy- From the ten-speeds of Boston to the cling in their transportation strategies. black roadsters of Beijing, the world's Public policy can facilitate cycling in a 800 million bicycles outnumber cars by number of ways. By making ordinary two to oneand each year three times as streets safe for bikes and providing a many bikes as cars are produced. Bicy- network of cyclewaysseparate cycle cles in Asia alone transport more people paths, bike lanes on streets, and wide shoulders to accommodate cyclists on than all the world's autos do.' major roadsphysical improvements In developing countrieswhere can give cyclists and drivers equal ac- urban workers cycle to their jobs and cess to as many destinations as possi- rural dwellers pedal two- and three- ble. wheelerspiledhighwithloadsof A pro-bicycle stance need not be anti- goodspedal post eris an important automobile. The Netherlands, the most part of national economies and the only bicycle-friendly of all industrial coun- alternative to walking that many people tries, has the western world's highest can afford. In industrial countries, bicy- densities of both cycleways and cars, cles are a practical supplement to motor- plus a high level of public transit service. ized transportation. Indeed, maximizing the use of bicycling Meanwhile,asteadyriseinthe and mass transit could curb the steep An expanded version of this chapter appealed as growthindriving before urbanair WorkNatch Papei 90, The Mode I ehule for a Small b-comes unbreathable and rush-hour Plana. traffic grinds to a standstill.2

1 r A 1,i')'-x (120) State of the Woild 1990

THE SILENTMAJORITY to scorn the bicycle as a vehicle for the poor. Some colonial administrations in Most of thcorld's bicycles are in Asia. Africa built urban bicy cle lanes or paths, China alone has roughly 300 million. but most of these hal, e detenorated or And since only 1 person in74,000owns been abandonedinthepastthi ee an automobile, Chinese commuters have decades. And many African w, omen do little choke but to make the most of their not ride bicy cles for reasons of propriety bikes. They are also popular because, or religion or because of encumbering like cars in industrial countries, they clothing.5 offer the luxury of individual mobility Africa and Latin America lack Asia's and door-to-door trawl without detours widespread aomestk bicy cle industries. or extra stops for other passengers. Dur- The few bikes inailable are often of poor ing the last 10 years, rising incomes in quality, spare parts are scarce, and main- China have been matched by rising bicy- tenance skills are inadequate. Despite cle purchases, and the country's fleet has these constraints, the bkyde's utility nearly tripled. Domestic bike sales in and the lack of other options !line led to 1987reached 35 milhonmeaning that more intensive cy cling in some African more people bought bikes in China than settingsey en if it means splicing to- purchased cars worldwide.3 gether worn-out brake cables or filling a Elsewhere in Asia, bicycles often make punctured inner tube with sand. In parts up two thirds of the vehicles on city of Burkina Faso, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and streets during rush hour. Many Asian a few other countries, bicycles are widely urban transit systems are enhanced by used.6 pedal-powercd "paratransit," in which Latin America also has itscycling. three-wheeled %chides for hirevari- pockets, %here the vehicle's practicality ously called rickshaws, trishawspedi- uanscendsitslow socialstatus.In cabs, and becakstransport one or Bogota, the laigest bakery traded in more passengers. These resourceful most of its trucks for900space-saving adaptations of the bicycle do much the delivery trikes that now bring goods to same work cars do elsew here. Cycle rick- over 60,000 local shops. Nicaragua be- shaws are the taxis of Asia; heavy -duty came perhaps the first Latin American tricycles, hauling up to half-ton loads, goy crnment to promote cycling actively, are its light trucks. In Bangladesh, tri- pledging in1987to supplant its war- shaws alone transport more tonnage ray aged transport sector with 50,000 bi- than all motor vehicles combined.4 cycles some purchased by the govei n- ment and othcrs donated from outside.7 Several heavily polluted areas in East- In 1987, more people bought bikes ern Europe and the Soviet Union have inChina than purchasedcars encouraged a revival of bicycling as part worldwide. of their environmental strategies. The Lithuanian city of Siauliai launched the Soviets' first comprehensive cycling program in1979;a new bike path system The rest of the developing w odd lags and extensive parkingfacilities haw far behind in bicy cle transportation. In helped raise bicy cle use there. In small much of Africa and even morc widely in Hungarian cities, roughly half the jour Latin America, the prestige and power of neys to work are by bike.8 auto ownership has made goNernments Industrial countries haw a surprising ignoie pedal power and has led people number of bicycles per person, consider-

1 ( k Cvling Into the Futwe (121) ing how few are typically foundon most on bikes for actual transport. (See 'Fable city streets. Many industrial nations have 7-2.) The United States hasmore than two or three times as many bikes per seven times as many bicycles per person person as their Asian counterparts. But as India, but because one in every two where people have access to automo- Americans owns an automobile-com- biles, ownership does not necessarily pared with 1 out of 500 Indians-bicy- translate into use. (See Table 7-1.) One cles play a much more modest rolein the in foul Britons has a bicycle, yet only 1 U.S. transportation system. transport trip out of 33 is made by bike. West Europeans are the industrial In the United States, just 1 inevery 40 world's heaviest bicycleusers. In several bikes is used for commuting; most of the countries-among them Denmark, the rest are ridden for fitness, sport, or Netherlands, and West Germany-bike play-or are collecting dust in base- ownei s outnumber nonowners. Pro-bi- ments.9 cycle planning in the last 20years (rather A comparison of bicycle and carown- than conducive climate or flat terrain,as ership illustrates each country's reliance is often assumed) distinguishes Europe's Table 7-1. Cycling as Share of Daily truly "bicycle-friendly" countries. The Passenger Trips, Selected Cities Netherlands and Denmark leadthis group, with bicycle travel making up Share Table 7-2. Bicycles and Automobiles in City of Daily Trips Selected Countries, Circa 1985 (percent) Cycle/ Tianjin. China 771 Auto Shenyang, China 65 Country Bicycles Aut os Ratio Groningen, Netherlands 50 Beijing, China 48 (million) Delft, Netherlands 43 China' 300.0 1.2 250.0 Dacca, Bangladesh 402 India 45.0 1.5 30.0 South Korea 6.0 0 3 20.0 Erlangen, %Vest Germany 26 Egypt 1.5 0.5 3M Odense. Denmark 25 Mexico 12.0 4.8 2.5 Tokyo, Japan 253 Netherlands 11.0 4.9 2.2 Moscow, Soviet Union 243 Delhi, India 22 japan' 60.0 30.7 2.0 Copenhagen, Denmark 20 West Germany 45.0 26.0 1.7 Basel, Switzerland 20 Argentina 4.5 3.4 1.3 Tanzania 0.5 0.5 1.0 Hannover, West Germany 14 Amu alia' 6.8 7 1 1.0 Manhattan, United States 84 United States1 103.0 139.0 0.7 Perth, Australia 6 11988 Toronto, Canada 34 SOURCE. Worhhsatch Institute. based on Moto! Ve- London, England 2 hicle Manufactin ers Association (\1VMA). tacti and Figul es Sydney, Austialia 1 (Dellon. M cIi,,%Anon, editions); MVMA, al ions in i% ate COMMIlnu awns. Interna- ISharc of nonwd1king wps. 2frips bccle tional Trade Cent! e, Buick and Gomponenls. .1 Pilot rickshaw only 3Shal e cling cm wAking to Survey of Oppot !mho fitbade Among nevelolang wot k 4Vehic1e trips (vet sus passengel trips) (;ountrws (Geneva. UNC, I"AD/GA .1985):Japan souRcE\Vol Icheatch Institute. based On %al ions CvelePIM Infrrnahonal, val ions editions, and othei sources. soul res. (122) State of the World 1990 20-30 percent of all urban tripsup to 1 chicle of the future. But countries that half in r ome towns.") have become dependent on the car are In several European countries, from pal,..,-. a terrible price: each y ear brings 10 to 55 percent of railway patrons in a licaviel toll from road accidents, air suburbs and smaller towns arriv e at the pollution, urban congestion, and oil station by bicycle. Traffic jams and air bills. Today people who choose to drive pollutioninthepastdecade have rather than Iv alk or cycle a short distance spurred authorities in Austria, Switzer- do so not merely for convenience, but land, and West Germany to encourage alsc to insulate themselves from the more bicycle use. Riders in Belgium, harshness of a street ruled by the motor France, 'he United Kingdom, and south- vehicle. The broadening of transport ern EuropLan counti les, by contrast, still options beyond those requiring an en- get little support." gine can help restore the environment Many auto-saturated cities of North and human healthindeed, the very America and Australia have all but aban- quality of ur',an life." doned the bicycle. The growth of sub- Nearly everyone who lives in a large urbs has sent jobs, homes, and services city is exposed to one hazard of the auto- sprawling over long distances that in- mobile eraair pollution. Cars and hibit both cycling and mass transit. Many other motor vehicles create more air pol- major cities are largely bicycle-proof, lution than any other human activity their roadways and parking facilities de- does. Gasoline and diesel engines emit s;gned with only motor vehicles in mind. almost half the carbon monoxide, hydro- Although several cities explicitly en.pha . carbons, and nitrogen oxides that result size safety for cycle commutersinclud- from all fossil fuel combustion world- ing Seartie, Calgary, Melbourne, and wide. (See Chapter 6.) Airborne lead, several university townsthese are the sulfur dioxide, particulates, and many exceptions." other harmful if not toxic or carcinogenic pollutants also spew out of the tail- The world issufficiently equipped, pipe. On particularly hazy days in the measured by the number of vehicles, to world's most smog-filled citiesAthens, let bicycles take on a larger share of the Budapest, Mexico City, and many oth- transportation burden Nearly 100 mil- el sofficials must call temporary driv- lionbicycles are manufactured each ing oans to avert public health crises." year. Backed by strong domestic de- Car-induced air pollution does dam- fe:,,Iffan d.growing exportmarkets, age far beyond city limits. Vehicles are a major producers are sure to keep ex- major sourceindeed, in the United panding the'r capacity,especiallyin States, the largest sourceof the nitro- Asia." gen oxides and organic compounds that are precursors to ozove. Ground-level ozone, believed to reduce soybean, cotton, and other crop yields by 5-10 percent, takes an estimated annual toll of VEHICLE FOR A SMALL $5.4 billion on crops in the United States PLANET alone. Nitrogen oxides 4.ln be chemically transformed in the atmospl ere ioto The automobikwhich has brought in- aciddeposition,knowntodestroy dustrial society a degree of individual aquatic life in lakes and streams, and sus- mobility and convenience not known pected of damaging forests throughout beforehas long been cons.dered the Europe and North America." Cycling Into the Futwe (123) As serious as these lossesare, they don, Los Angeles, and Victoriause bi- pale in comparison to the disruptions cycles rather than squad cars for patrol- that global warming could inflicton the lingcongestedurbancenters. The biosphere. (See Chaptcr 2.) Motor vehi- economic and social costs ofcongesuon, cles are thought to be res'-,sible for 17 such as employee time lost throughtar- percent of the worldwic' Tut of car- diness and inflated goods prices result- bon dioxide (CO2)thcrenhouse gas ing from higher distributioncosts, are that accounts for roughly half thewarm- bound to multiply if car commuting ing effect. And carbon monoxidecon- trends persist." tributes indirectly to the warming by Decision makers tyvically seek only slowing the removal of methane and technological solutions to auto-induced ozone, two other greenhouse gases, problems, an approach that, without al- from the lower atmosphere." ternatives to driving, is inadequate. Al- Excessive motorization also deepens though exhaust controls suchas the cat- the oil dependence that is drainingna- alytic converterhavedramatically tional economies. Many nations'trans- reduced pollution from U.S.passenger port sectors account for more than half cars since the early sixties, for example, their petroleum consumption. Even with rapid growth in the vehicle fleet and in the recent fall in crude prices, fuel bills kilometers traveled have partially offset are particularly harsh for indebted de- this progress. Moreover, the catalytic veloping nations that spend largepor- converter has contributed to impressive tions of their foreign-exchange earnings reductions in hydrocarbon and carbon on imported oil. In 1985, low-income monoxide emissionsintheUnited deve nping countries (excluding China) States, but it actually slightly increases spei on as nrage 33 perct:nt of the the CO2 buildup, which contributesto money they earned through merchan- climate change. 21 dise exports on energy imports;many spent more than half." Theoilshocksof theseventies brought home the precarious For every person who makesa trip nature of by bkycic inste2ld of by petroleum as an en rgy source,expos- car there is ing the vulnerability of car-dependent less pollution, less fuel used, and countries. Today's stable prices andsup- less space taken on the road. ply have lulled importers into compla- cency. But as oil demand continues to rise, another oil crisis looms in the nine- Similarly, the quest for petroleum al- ties." ternative' has focused largely on "clean" The world's largest gridlocked cities fuels such as methanol, made from coal may run out of momentum before they or natural gas, and alcohol substitutes run out of oil. Road traffic in many cases distilled from corn and othercrops. But moves more slowly than bicycles, with m.tanol contributes to ozone forma- average car speeds during peak times tion and, if derived from coal,to climate sometimes down to eight kilometersper change by emitting twiceas much car- hour. Traffic density in Taiwan's capital bon dioxide per unit ofenergy as gaso- is 10 times that of congestion-plagued line does. Using crop-based feedstocks Los Angeles, and work trips take Mexico for alternative fuels carries itsown envi- City commuters up to four hours each ronmental side-effects, as wellas posing day. Some police units in European and a potential conflict with food produc- North American citiesincluding Lon- tion.22 (124) State of the World 1990 Nor is building more roads the a. s er Bicycles use less energy pei passenger to congestion. Transport planners are kilometer than any othei form of trans- finding that constructing new freeways port, including walking. (See Table 7-3.) just attracts more cars, as some public A 16-kilometer commute by bicy cle uses transit riders switch to driving and as 350 calories of energy, the amount in new developments spring up along the one bowl of rice. The same trip in the new roads. Former Federal Highway Ad- ay erage American car uses 18,600 calo- ministration (FHWA) head Robert Far- ries, or more than half a gallon of gaso- ris concales: "We can no longer com- line.25 pletelybuildourwayoutof the Bicycle transportation also uses space congestion crisis by lay ing more con- more efficiently than automobile trans- crete and asphalt. Time is too short, port. In fact, any other transport mode, money is too scarce, and land is often especially mass transit, can move more not available."23 people per hour in a lane of a given size For every person who makes a trip by than cars can even at highway speed. bicycle instead of by car there is less pol- 'Faking into account both space occu- lution, less fuel used, and less space pied and speed of travel, automobile taken on the road. Bicycle transporta- traffic accommodates roughly 750 per- tion, rather than replacing all motorized sons per meter-width of lane per hour, trips, w ould mainly supplant short auto- compared with 1,500 persons traveling mobile joum n y s,precisely those that by bicycle, 5,200 persons by bus in a sep- create the most pollution (because a cold arate bus lane, and 9,000 persons 1r, stir- engine does not fire efficiently). A shift fa.e rapid rail. Replacing short car trips to bicy ciesfor such journeys w ould with bicycling and longer ones with mass thereforeyieldadisproportionately tranitespecially with cycling as the large benefit. Bicycle commuting holds way to get to the stationw ould save great potential, since more than half of considerable space on roads.26 all commutes in the United States and Cycling is thus an eyem more attractive nearly three fourths of those in the alternative to the daily grind of traffic United Kingdom are eight kilometers or congestion. Except w hen 'here is no al- less.2 I Unfortunately, dangerously high pol- Table 7-3. United States: Energy lution levels are even more of a health Intensity of Selected Transport Modes, threat to people who are exercising out- 1984 doors, including cyclists. Air pollution Mode Energy Intensity during such periods becomes, ironically, ., a dew rent to bicycling. Until air quality (calories per improves, cyclists need a workable alter- passenger kilometer) nativeideally, mass transiton partic- Automobile, one 1,153 ularly hazy days. Eventually, when more ;occupant drivers have switched to bicycling, the Tiansit Bus 570 air is likely to be safer for everyone. Transn Rail 549 In the rush to run engines on gasoline Walking 62 20 substitutes such as corn-based ethanol, Bicycling decision makers have overlooked a technology that converts food directly into sorm:F.S. Mat) C Ilokontb et al .Tramper (alum Energy Dala Boa IldtIwn9 (Oak Ridge, lenn Oak fuel. A cyclist can ride 5.6 kilometers on Ridge National Laboranny, 1987),President's the calories found in an ear of cornand Council on Plissital Fitness alai Sports. innate nothing has to be distilled or refined. «minninnation, June 211, 1988,

1 .191' Cyclmg Into the Future (125) ternative but to ride in the same traffic annual per capita incomeor some 18 stream, cycling commuters benefit both to 125 times as much as a basic one- themselves and their employers by being speed bicycle. It is no wonder thereare less vulnerable than their colleagues to so few cars per person in the developing hypertension, heart attacks, andcoro- world. Motorcycle ownership isgrowing nary disease, and by arriving at work in many countriesusually much faster more alert. The proof that people enjoy than car ownershipbut is still beyond cycling to keep fit is in the popularity of the means of the majority. Mopeds are stationary exercise bikes; the irony is increasingly popular in Asian cities and that so many people drive toa health have promise as an intermediate vehicle. club to ride them.27 Boththesemotorizedtwo-wheelers, Measured by its benefits both to soci- however, pose their own pollution prob- ety and the individual, the bicycle is truly lems.29 a vehicle for a small planet. "Bicycling is human-scale," writes New York cycling activist Charles Komanoff. "Bicycling re- Deeplyimpoverishedcountries mains one of New York City's few robust pour precious export earnings into ecological expressions . . a living, motorized transport, breathing alternative to the city's domi- ignoring nation by motor vehicles. There is magic human-powered options thatpeo- in blending with traffic, feeling the wind ple and governments could better in one's face, the sheer fact of traversing afford. the city under one's own power."28 ror many people in the developing world, the only affordable alternative to walking is a public bus, and yet even in PEDAL-POWERED ua ban areas buses can be scarce. Many DEVELOPMENT Asian, African, and Latin American cit- ieswhere most people dependon Most people in the Third World will buseshave less than half the coverage never sit insidelet alone ownan au- (in buses per capita) of U.S. and Euro- tomobile. Private car travel is thepi ivi- pean cities, where ri..lers usually, have thc lege of only a tiny elite, and thinly option of drivin- anyway. Theexpan- stretched government budgetscannc t sion of Third World transit systemscan provide adequate public transit services easily overwhelm government budgets for burgeoning populations. Bicycles burdened by other crucial demands such and their three- and four-wheeledcous- as housing, water supply, and sanitation. ins can enhance mobility at littk cost, Privatelyrun bus companies, which improve access to vital services, andcre- often help case a government's transit ate a wide range of employment oppor- burden, also fall short for lack of equip- tunities. Yet deeply impoverishedcoun- ment and fuel, and are impeded by the tries pour precious export earnings into high incidence of unpavedor narrow motorized transport, ignoring oreven streets. In much of the Third W orld, subverting human-powered options that fully meeting transport needs through people and governments alike could bet- mass transit is a worthy, but probably ter afford. unattainable goal." In developing countries, an automo- Particularly in rural areas, therefore, bile can cost as much as 30 times the people have little choice but to walk.

140 (126) State of the Woild 1990

Rural transport needs in deeloping otherpurposespoweringapaddy countries consist mainly of moving farm thresher, a peanut sheller, or a water goodsandsuppliesandgathering pump, for examplein a way that they household necessities such as water and can be easily adjusted back again for fuel.Familiesspendaninordinate transportation. Inter Pares, a Canadian amount of time on the lane, each day, agency, is redesigning rickshaws origi- with women carrying the brunt of this nally dex eloped for six-foot Europeans hardship quite literally on their heads. A into lighter, cheaper, more maneuver- study in Kenya round that women do 89 able vehicles for the typical five-foot percent of all water and firewood gather- Ban gladeshi.34 ing for the family. Women and children Bicycles provide a livelihood for many may spend three to six hours a day fetch- in th. Th:rd World's informal sector ing water for the household.5' the moss of self-employed entrepre- Across the developing world, farmers neurs who, operating with little or no typically need to haul loads weighing up capital, constitute from 20 to 70 percent to 150 kilograms (330 pounds) over of the labor force in urban areas. Mobile moder..aely long distances. These tasks vendors cycle with bundles of newspa- do not call for a truck or automobile, but pers through Tanzanian towns, bring they do require some intermediate kind hot lunches to factory workers in Sri ot vehicle. Throughout tropical Africa Lanka, and sell fresh bread from their and parts of Asia, even a "small" load of bicycles in Iran. Some 5,000 Incicleros in 30 kilograms becomes a crushing bur- Santo Domingo, capital of the Domini- den when carried on the head, back, or can Republic, use heavy three-wheelers shoulders. "Headloading" and other to circulate much of the city's supply of forms of human porterage can severely fresh food, coal, scrap metal, and various injure the spine, joints, muscles, and in- materials for recycling.35 ternal organs. According to a report in Professor V. Setty Pendakur of the Bangladesh, half the broken necks that University of British Columbia, an au- occur are sustained during falls while the thority on urban transport in South Asia, victimsarecarryingloads ontheir believes that the social benefits of pedal- heads.32 powered transit.employment, access, Field studies by Intermediate Tech- andaffordabilityfaroutweighthe nology Transport, Ltd., a London-based disadvantages, mainly the lack of ef- agency that gives technical assistance to ficienjes of scale possible with motor- local development projects in the Third ized public transit." World, have shown that a bicycle can But bias against human-powered vehi- provide a travel capacity (a combination cles is severe in Third World cities, and of speed and payload) that is at least five even worse inthe countryside. For times that possible through walking. decades, governments have devoted And attaching a trailer to a bicycle allows rural funds to building motorable roads, the rider to carry comfortably up to 200 neglecting the fact that few people there kilogramsseveral times the maximum hax e cars or trucks, and that motorized headload.33 publictransitrarelyreachesthem. Severalinternationalorganizations Transportation expert Wilfred Owen are working with local authorities in de- has noted that "many miles of roads in veloping countriestodesign sturdy poor countries prove more useful for load-carrying bicy cies and trailers, and dry ing beans and peppers than for mov- to improve vehicle designs for the dis- ing traffic."37 abled. Some have adapted bicycles to Although policy makers could improve

141 Cydwg Into the Fulute (127)

transport at little cost by supporting bi- tion, sends donated bicycles andparts cycles and other human-powered vehi- where most needed to improve people's cles, they seldom do. City governments access to services and free the hard- are often hostile to rickshaws and similar working poor for productive activities. services, either discouraging them with Its bikes have multiplied the effective- regulations, fines, and taxes, or wiping ness of literacy teachers in Haiti, well them out entirely through bans andcon- drillers in Bolivia, and health workersin fiscations. In Jakarta, the city has confis- Nicaragua and Mozambique. The Insti- cated some 100,000 cycle rickshawsover tute is breaking further ground by pro- the past five years and dumped them moting all-terrain bicyclesalso called into the seato -reduce trafficconges- mountain bikesthat are moreappro- tion." Dacca, Bangladesh,recently priate foi rugged conditions than the threatened to phase out rickshawsde- half-century-old British roadster model spite the fact they account formore than usually found in the Third World.4' half the passenger trips in the city and Developments in recent years suggest employ an estimated 140,000 people. that human-powered vehiclesmay yet Rickshaws throughout South Asia, and penetrate official circles. A handful of even in some African countries, where national governments, lending banks, they are less common, are also in jeop- and other international agencies that ardy." have steadfastly pursued motorization Governments typically defend their policies are finding their one-trackap- assaults on rickshaws by declaring them proach unsustainable. unsafe or inhumane for the drivers. The One example in progress is an inter- more likely motive, however, is to clear mediate transport project in Ghana. the streets of vehicles they think make With advice from Intermediate Technol- the city look poor and backward. Ac- ogy Transport and assistance from the cording to Pendakur: "The cycle rick- World Bank, the government isnow pro- shaw provides the highest employment moting the production anduse of bicycle for a given investment andserves the trailers and handcarts. The Bank is also poor efficiently and flexibly, reaching proposing to help Ghana build low-cost areasnotreachedbyconventional rural roads meant chiefly for nonmotor- buses. While there is a need to modern- ized vehicles. Sufficient to servean occa- ize and make the life of the rickshaw sional truck or car without havingto puller tolerable, the answer may not lie meet stricter construction standards, the in costly motorization but in better de- proposed roads would cost about $2,400 signotthecycle rickshaw and the per kilometer, or roughly 8 percent as streets."39 much as a conventional rural road.42 Governments are not the only ones That there are only Jightly more de- reinforcing discrimination against veloping countries making bicycles than human-powered vehicles. Michael Re- producing automobileseven though plogle, president of the U.S.-based Insti- domestic auto manufacturing demands tute for Transportation and Develop- much more capit7,1 and technical and ment Policy (ITDP), notes that in 1985 managerial resourcesepitomizes the the World Banka principalsource of Third World's missed opportunities urban transport funds in the developing with human-pow red vehicles. Experi- worldpublished a 400-page study of ence in Asia has shown that starting a China's transport sector that failedto bicycle industry is a relatively low-risk even mention the word bicycle.40 wmture for developing countries that ITDP, a nongovernmental organiza- have little industrial base. A smallassem- (128) State of the World 1990 bly plant and repair shop can run on dards, geograph), or climate, from their about $200 worth of tools, and 100 bic) - nonc)cling neighbors. A stud) of trans- cies can be manufactured for the energy port s) stems in 12 North American and and materials it takes to build a medium- West Europeancountriesby John sized car.43 Pucher confirms that wide variations in people's transportdecisions are not chiefly influenced by levels of income, Starting a bicycle industry is a rela- technology, or urbanization. The dif- tively low-risk venture for develop- ference lies in enlightened public policy and strong government support.46 ing countries that have little indus- Chinese authorities recognized dec- trial base. ades ago that human-powered transport could move mcwe people more cheaply than any' other option. They began in- India has demonstrated how a nearl) besting in low-cost, mass production of self-sufficient bicycle industry can be bicycles when most people were still too created by first assembling bic)cles with poor to own one, and they directed in- imported parts, then producing frames frastructure improvements to nonmo- in local workshops, and gradually estab- torized travel. When commercial access lishing small factories to produce parts to villages was opened in the early six- domestically. From a modest beginning ties, it was largely over rural tracks built five decades ago, India has become a for people moving on foot, animal carts, major world producer. It directs more or bicycles.47 than 90 percent of its bicycle exports to Special bicycle avenues with five to six other developing countries, and through lanes each are common in Chinese cities. joint-venture and license agreements is Motorized traffic is often separated from sharing its small-scale, labor-intensive pedestrians and cyclists on three-track techniques with countries throughout roads, and some cities set apart space for Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean.44 load-carrying bicycles. Convenient, Engineer and urban planner Ricardo guarded bicycle parking is plentiful, as Navarro, who is nurturing a string of are services for maintenance and repair. small workshops in El Salvador that he Throughout China, city governments hopes will become a vigorous domestic have long used bicycles to relieve pres- bicycleindustry,hassuccinctlyde- sure on overcrowded buses by paying scribed the potential economic role of commuters a monthly allowance for cy- pedal power: the bicycle is "a mecamsmo cling to work. China has thus provided mdispensable for development."45 high-quality transport to large numbers of people while postponing the need for heavy public transit investments.48 Japan is another cycling society in which bicycle trips for practical use far CYCLING SOCIETIES outnumber those for leisure or sport. Census figures for 1980 showed that 7.2 What sets apai t the handful of countries million commutersapproximately 15 that, in a uorld seduced by automobile ! percent of the totalrode bikes to work have chosen to embrace the bicycle? or to commuter rail stations. Bicycle China, Japan, the Netherlands, Den- ownership has climbed from an average mark: these few cycling societies are not of 1 per household in 1970 to1.5 in notabl) different, in terms of lis ing stan- 1988. Though recreational cyclingis

1 4 3 Cythng Into the Future (129) quickly gaining enthusiasts, most bicy- "traffic cells" that diNide a cit) into zones clists ride for everyday shopping and to reroute traffic from denser ai eas onto commuting to work or schoo1.49 main roads, making smaller streets safer Many of Japan's rail passengers pedal for cycling and walking.52 daily to train and subway stations. Since The bicycle's top two European cham- the sixties, Japanese transport has been pions, the Netherlands and Denmark, dominated by commuter railroads that owe their current lead in cycling policy link urban centers to the rapidly growing to having had a head start. Bicycle tour- suburbs. As development fanned out ism is a major industry, 1%ith thousands farther from the rail lines, manycom- of people taking extended trips along muters switched from slow feeder buses country roads to enjoy diverse land- to bikes for their daily journeys to subur- scapes and visit picturesque towns. As ban stations. By the mid-seventies, "bi- elsewhere on the continent, pro-bicycle cycle pollution"a phrase coined for planning for utilitarian purposes in these the hundreds or even thousands of bicy- countries is part of a recent search for cles crammed in front of some railway alternativesto automobiledepen- stationsspurred the government to dence.53 promote bike parking as a way out of the The Netherlands has a long tradition chaos." of cycling both for recreation andevery- National legisbtion passed in 1980 da) transport, though the bicycle's role empowers local governments in Japan to declined in the fifties and sixties as more require that railways and private busi- people bought automobiles. But cycling nesses build ample bicycle parking, an made a comeback when the repercus- approachknowninternationallyas sions of growing car use were drama- "bike-and-ride." Today more than 8,600 tized by energy shocks and ecological of these official and private parking sizes crises in the seventies. Between 1975 exist, with total capacity for 2.4 million and 1985 the government spent some bikes.Limited land spacein urban $230 million to build cycleways and Japanwhere downtown real estatecan parking, and to increase transit access cost over $75,000 per square meter through bicycle facilities at rail stations. has inspired the construction of bicycle Highway construction expenditures, by parking towers. Dozens of transit sta- contrast, began to decline; by the early tions have multistory structures in which eighties, funding for bicycle projectsex- automated cranes park thousands of ceeded 10 percent of capital spending bikes." on roadways.54 Much of Europe is moving toward In 1986 the Netherlands' cycle paths pro-bicycle planning. Many towns covered13,500kilometers.Perhaps Sweden, Switzerland, and West Ger- even more significant than this achieve- many have steadily increasing shares of ment, however. are Dutch efforts to cyclists in their traffic, and authorities in createdirect,uninterruptedcycling recent years have stepped up their com- routesthus making riding practical, mitment to cycle planning. West Ger- rather than simply getting cyclists out of many's years of l'ethehrsbendugung (traffic the way of other traffic. As a result, the calming) have helped encourage acy- share of trips made by bicycle in Dutch cling environment by confining motor- towns and cities is t)pically between 20 ized traffic with physical barriers andre- and 50 percent.55 duced speed limits. Swedish towns have In Groningen, the largestcityin experimented with restraining motor northern Nether:ands, q cling acconnts vehicles since the seventies by using for half of all urban trips. The city of

1 4 4 (130) Stale of lhe World 1990 Delft's cycling provisions include under- cling is Denmark, where as Copenha- passes and bridges across dangerous in- gen's Mayor of Traffic notes, poets hme tersections, and innovations in traffic celebrated the bicycle and sculptors management. Some traffic-activated sig- have made statues of cyclists. Danish au- nals, for example, normally sensitive thorities have encouraged cyclingin only to motor vehicles, detect bicycles as much the same way Dutch officials have. they arrive at intersections. Pavement The share of bicycles in Denmark's traf- lines give cyclists space to stop ahead of fic counts, though slightly lower than other traffic and then move ahead first. that in the Netherlands, is still impres- Cyclistsare also permittedtoride sive: 20 percent of personal trips in Dan- against thetraffic on some one-way ish cities and towns are made by bicycle. streets." Danish rail stations typically accommo- Rather than replace the automobile, date several hundred bikes at a time." the Netherlands has sought to balance North America's closest approach to a auto transport withbicycling, public cycling society is the bicycle-friendly uni- transit, and walking as a national policy versity town. Two such communities in goal. Pedestrian-only streets and re- northernCalifornia,PaloAlto and duced speed limits are common in Dutch Davis, vie for the title of U.S. biking capi- towns, and car parking is prohibited on tal. Of the two, Davis has the higher cy- many city streets. Residential streets are cling rate-25 percent of total trips in often transformed intowoonerven,or the community of 44,000 are made by "living yards," a traffic-calming concept bikeand cycle trailers filled with gro- introduced in the seventies. In awoonof the road becomes a paved courtyard. All ceries or children are not an unusual means of transport are allowed, but bicy- sight. The t,,wn has some 48 kilometers clists and pedestrians have priority and of bicycle lanes for 161 kilometers of cars enter only as "guests."57 streets, and roughly 32 kilometers of separate cycle paths." Palo Altohasspent,since1980, roughly $1 millionmostly from state A cycling society can emerge out of grantson bicycle lockers and racks, one already hooked on the automo- bike bridges, and lighted cycle paths. All bile. road patching in town must adhere to high smoothness standards. The centerpiece of Palo Alto's 65-kilometer system A current car boom, however, is chal- of bikeways isits bicycle boulevard, a lenging Dutch officials to put their ener- 3.2-kilometer stretch in the middle of gies into simply maintaining the present town where bikes are the only through- popularity of cycling. In1988, Dutch traffic allowed. A 1983 zoning ordinance Transport Minister Nellie Smit-Kroes requires new buildings beyond a certain announced a bold plan in which taxes sizc to provide secure bicycle parking will increase the costs of buying and and showers for employees, and several driving a car by about half, while public large employers in the area add their transit will receive an extra $5.7 billion own incentives. Amenities at Xerox, for per year. A new dectronic system will examplewhich include a to,,e1 service log the number of kilometers each car in the shower roomhelp explain why travels, and "excessive drivers" vill then 20 percent of the company's local em- pay additional taxes.58 ployees cycle to work, one of the highest The Netherlands' closest peer in cy- bicycle commuter rates nationwide."

1 4 5 Cycling Into the Future (IV) These examples give ample proof that tion of ownership and use, total mileage a cycling society can emerge out of one driven tends to decline.66 already hooked on the automobile. Palo Pucher found that Denmark and the Alto Council member Ellen Fletcher, Nethcrlandsthe two with some of the who cycles to city meetings and has highest taxesalso have among the low- become known nationally for her bLycle est figures for per capita kilometers of advocacy, knows how to fulfill the bicy- automobile travel. The United States cle's potential. "All you have to do is comes last in taxation of both auto sales make it easier to ride a bike than drivea and gasoline, and is second onlyto Swe- car," she says. "People will take it from denthe country with the next-to-low- there."62 est gas taxin kilometers of auto travel per person. Moreover, while the United States puts these tax monies into highway expenditures, European countries put most of' the proceeds into general GETTING THERE FROM HERE revenues.66 Taxes and user fees can be extended In a 1988 Newsweek interviewon the U.S. to other amenities such as space in park- gridlock predicament, former FHWA ing lots and roads. In the United States, trafficsystems chief Lyle Saxton re- 75 percent of all commuters have free marked: "We have builtour society parking provided by employers,a tax- around the automobile and we have to free fringe benefit for employees anda deal with it." But as the world's cycling tax-deductible expense for businesses societies demonstrate, neithergovern- that provide it. In Japan and much of ments nor citizens need accept the status Europe, in contrast, public policy makes quo. With public policy support and pri- parking both more expensive and less vate initiatives on many levelsfrom in- available. Singapore charges privatecars ternational institutions to the individual carrying fewer than fourpassengers commuterbicycle transportationcan "congestionfees"forenteringthe become an everyckly alternative." downtown area during rush hours. Since National governments can make auto- 1975 the scheme has raised Singapore's mobile owners pay more of the hidden average downtown traffic speeds by 20 expenses of driving. The costs of these percent, reduced traffic accidents by 25 itemsincluding roadbuildingand percent, and trimmed fuel consumption maintenance, police and fire services,ac- by an estimated 30 percent.67 cidents and health careare borne by all As the world's cities rapidlygrow taxpayers, drivers and nondrivers alike. larger, the expansion of mass transitsys- In the United States, the hidden price of tems will become increasingly impor- car driving may total as much as $300 tant. Third World governments strain- billion a year.64 ing to extend public transit serviceto One way to counteract this enormous outlying settlements can maximizeac- subsidy i. for governmentsto tax auto cess by fostering bike-and-ride. In the ownership and use, and to invest the industrial world, bike-and-ride isan al- revenues in mass transit and in cycling ternative to increased car commuting and pedestrian facilities. In Pucher':,re- both between city centers and suburbs cent study of 12 countries in Western and from one suburb to another. Transit Europe and North America, itis clear authorities have typically tried toattract that when drivers are madeto pay the passengers by building automobile park- costs of automobile travel through taxa- ing lots, which reqi ire at least 20 times 1 4 6 (132) State of the Woild 1990 as much space as bicy cle parking. For a off the road network and on the trans- tiny fraction of that cost, secure bicycle port needs of women." facilities can increase con% enient access Local governments in de eloping and to transit stations by a radius of at least industrial countries alike can promote one to three kilometers, enlarging the cycling more effectis, ely by creating an total area served roughly ninefold.68 official bicycle advisory council that re- Leaders in the developing world can ports to the mayor, city council, or make national transportation policies equivalent authorityfollowing the ex- more effective by considering the mobil- ample set by Toronto and Washington, ity and access needs of their impover- D.C., among others. This advisory body ished majorities, providing credit where can help decision makers ensure that all necessary to help people purchase bicy- transport improvements consider the cles and other low-:.ost vehicles. Particu- needs of cyclists. Building codes and or- larlyincountriesthatdiscriminate dinances can specify that unw develop- against rickshaw drivers and others, a ments beyond a given size must include bicycle parking and showers for com- first step is to correct bias against human power and focus on improving rick- muters, and that new or rebuilt roads and bridges include safe bicycle access. shaws, not banning them. Governments A specific portion of downtown parking may need to balance motorized transit space could be devoted to bicycles and a investments with less costly bicycle sub- percentage of all transport spending al- sidies and cycling infrastructure. located to cycling facilities.71 Governments can also foster domestic Official support for cycleways in much bicycle industries, while avoiding heavy of the United Statcs has been under- import taxes and other policies that in mined by a deep divide among bike :u.1- the past have overprotected them, lead- vocates. On one side art those who oping to poor-quality products and, even- pose any special cycleways ormites that tually, to factory closings. It is important are separate from motor vehicle traffic, for authorities to encourage the flow of believing them unsafe and discrimina- technologies from elsewhere in the de- tory. Other cyclists advocate building veloping world, and to support research special bikeways where practical The in adapting low-cost vehicles to local controversy steins from the all-too-com- conditions.69 mon situation in which a separate facility Multilateral banks and other develop- for bicycles is infei ior to that for motor ment organizations can help spur these trafficparticularly if use of a poorly de- changes. The World Bank, for example, signed or deteriorating cycle path is now emphasizes bicycles and low-cost made mandatory. roads in several projects that are part of Experience has shown, however, that the Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Pro- if separate paths are of high quality, cy- gram. This joint undertaking w ith the clists w ill readily use them whether man- United NationsDevelopment Pro- datory or not. No single type of cycleway gramme, the United Nations Economic is appropriate for eery place or for Commission for Africa, and several bilat- eeryrider.Differencesinmoing eral donors began in 1987 to reel, aluate speeds, 1, olume of traffic, and skill levels the ineffective, motor-biased transport all should be taken into account when policies of the region. The Bank's series deciding on a bicycle lane, bil,e path, or of nonmotorizedtransportprojects route markings on regular roads. seeks to address the problems of rural Still, the debatn among cycling advo- access, focusing on trips that take place cates has led many local authorities to

1 7 Cycling Into the Futnie (133) dismiss requests for ney% bikeways on the out a concerted effort from cycling advo- grounds that cyclists themselves do not cacy groups and individuals acting to wantthem.Meanwhile,millionsJf counterstrongautomobilelobbies. Americans annually use 4,350 kilome- Local bike clubs yy ith a handful of mem- ters of abandoned rail corridors that bers and intel national groups Ysith tens have been converted into cycling and of thousands may be the most poy% erful hiking trails largely through the efforts forces for this broadening of transport of the Rails-To-Trails Conservancy,a alternatives. When Mayor Edyy aid Koch private organization." announced in 1987 that three mainave- Traffic management is also important nues in New York City yould be closed in balancing the needs of all types of to bicycles on weekdays, cycling acho- vehicles,particularlywherelimited cacy groups demonstrated against the space makes physical separation impos- ban, took legal action to reverse it on a sible. For decades the Netherlands has technical flaw, and finally persuaded the led the way in calming traffic withwoo- mayor nottotrybanning bicycles nerven, and West Germany is trying to again." create the same effect withreikelos- beruIngung and reduced speed limits. With such steps, urban design and traffic Millions of Americans annually use restraint can help differenttypes of 4,350 kilometers of abandoned rail transport coexist safely. corridors that have been converted Despite progress in recent years with into cycling and hiking trails. better traffic management and road designs, cyclists are still more vulnerable than drivers. Safety education for all road users and law enforcement for of- In June 1989, the League of' American fenders are crucialfor riders and driv- Wheelmen, a national cycling organiza- ers alike. In Manhattan, a decline in bicy- tion founded in 1880, held the first Na- tional Congress of Bicyclists since cycle-pedestrian accidents each year since 1985 is credited in part to increased cling's Golden Age in the 1890s. The po- congress established several goals, from lice vigilance in issuing summonses to urging local officials to enforce traffic cyclists, and in part to the emphasis by laws that affect cyclists to persuading the cycling organizations on mutual respon- U.S. Department of Transportation to sibility a. i cooperation." include cycling in nptional transporta- The long-term interests of cities will tion policy:76 be best served if metropolitan areas of Perhaps the greatest potential for 50,000 people or more adopt regional change lies with the individual cyclist. planning and create growth plans that Pressing employers and local authorities limit urban sprawl Innovative landuse to provide cycling facilitiesand simply plans cluster homes, shopping, and usingbikeswhenever possiblecan workplaces, and they base layouts as have enormous impact. Some cychsts much as possible on cycling and walking can make all the difference in simply distances, with an emphasis on public leading by eNample. Ai gentine President transit to complete the transport bal- Carlos Menem recently urged citizens to ance.74 ease the shock of soaring gasoline paces Governmem actionfromnational by riding bicycles, and is a cyclist him- taxation policies to local provision of bi- self." cycle racksis not likely to happen with- Each ume a driver makes a trip by bi- (134) State of the World 1990 cycle instead of by car not only the cyclist As author and cy clist James McGurn but society as a whole reaps the benefits. writes, "The bicycle is the vehicle of a One great irony of the twentieth century new mentality. It quietly challenges a is that around the globe vast amounts of sy stem of values which condones depen- such priceless things as land, petroleum, dency, wastage, inequality of mobility, and clean air have been relinquished for and daily carnage . . . .There is every motorizationand yet most people in reason why cycling should be helped to the world will never own an automobile. enjoy another Golden Age."78 Ending Poverty Alan B. Durning

"Until the lions have their historians," around the world are so undernourished declares an African proverb, "tales of their bodies and mindsare deteriorat- hunting will always glorify the hunter." ing. As water from a single spring in Likewise, the historians of the world's France is bottled and shipped to the fortunate classthose billion-oddpeo- prosperous around the globe, nearly 2 ple who inhabit industrial landshave billion people drink and bathe inwater already labeled the twentieth centurya contaminated with deadly parasites and time of economic miracles) pathogens .3 The history of the wealthy is impres- The histories of rich andpoor di- sive. Since 1900, the value of goods and verged particularly sharply in the eight- services produced each year worldwid ies. For industrial nations, the decade has grown twentyfold, the products of was a time of resurgence and recoveiy industry fiftyfold, and theaverage dis- after the economic turmoil of theseven- tance ilavelled by the well-to-do perhaps ties. For the poor, particularly in Africa a thousandfold. As the century enters its and Latin America, the eightieswere an final decade, commoners of the world's unmitigated disaster, a time ofmeager ,flItient nations live like the royaltyof diets and rising death rates. yes, 1r, and elites literally live like Destitutioli in the modern world is gods.2 perpetuated by mutually reinforcing fac- Yet the poor have a different taleto tors at the local, national, and interna- tell. The disparities in living standards tional levels that forma g!1.)al poverty that separate them from the richverge trap. Poverty s profile, furthermore, has on the grotesque. In 1989, the woild had becomeincreasinglyenvironmcn. 157 billionaires, perhaps 2 million mil- The poor not only suffer disproportion- lionaires, and 100 million homeless. atelyfromenvironmentaldamage Americans spend $5 billion eachyear on caused by those better off, they have special diets to lower their caloriecon- become a major cause of ecological de- sumption, while 400 million people clinethemselves as they have been An expanded version of this chapter appearedas pushed onto marginal land by popula- Worldwatch Paper 92, Poverty and the Environment tion growth and inequitable develop- 1?eversing the Downward Spiral. ment patterns. Economic deprivation

ISO (136) State of the Woad 1990 and cm monmental degradation rein- there are in the Congo. But the numbers force one another to form a mael- or people living in misery islai gelyri stroma downward spiral that threatens matter of conjecture. to pull in ever more. Economists &fine a poverty line by calculating the income in cash or kind a family requires to meet its basic needs For the poor, the eighties were an either sol for food, or for food, clothing, and shelter. Ideally, governments unmitigated disaster,a time of carry out household surveys or censuses meager diets and rising death rates. to determine what share of their people' have incomes below that threshold. Un- fortunately, the procedure is marred by Still, great hope for poverty alleYiation the variety of poverty lines employed exists around the woi Id: poor people and the lack of true house-to-hous ha% e fel med hundreds of thousands of monitoring. Inthis chapter, absolute grassroots organizations to help them- poY erty signifies the lack of sufficient in- sely es gain w hatofficial dey elopment come in cash or kind to meet the most programs fail to pros ide. These organi- basic biological n. eds for food, clothing, zations ha% und scores of innovatne and shelter. The absolute poverty in- \lays to break out of the poverty trap, come threshold varies widely between and to reyerse the dow nward ecological $50 and $500 per year, depending on spiral. The challenge ahead is to turn such things as prices, access to subsist- these hopefu beginnings into afull- ence resources, and aYailabifity k : public fledged mobilization to end poverty ole early eighties, World Bank and U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates of the numbers of people living in absolute poverty ranged be- AND THE' POOR GET POORER tween 700 million and 1 billion. Most indicators suggest that in 1989 poverty Po ertyis far moi e than an economic increased dramatically in sub-Saharan condition. Though traditionallymea- Africa and Latin America, as %%ell as in sured in terms of income, poYerty's hor- parts of Asia, swamping reductions in ror extends into all aspccts of a pei son's China and India. Unfortunately, abscnt life. susceptibility to disease, limited ac- directmonitoring,tracking poY erty's cess to most ty pes of sen ices and infoi - course i equires inference limn ti ends in !nation, lack of control oy ci resoui ces, erage incomes, w ages, pricis, unem- subordination to highei social and eco- ployment rites, income distribution pat- nomic classes, and uttei insecurity in the terns, and health indkators.4 face of changing c ironnstances. Flow ing Since 1950, aYerage income per per- from these physical dimensions is - son woildwide has doubled to S3,300 in ettypsy chological tollthe erosion of real tem ms, but the fi nits of global eco- Imman dignity and self-Iespect. nomic growth hay e almost all gone to Unfortunately, eyen the most basic the fortunate. Groupmg the IA orld's na- poY ci ty indicatorincomeis little tions into four classes based on theil pet monnoied. Itis possible to know pre- capita income in 1985 bi ings the dispari- cisely how much money is in ciiculation ties into sham p fouls. (See Figure 8-1.) in Haiti, how much steel is produc ed in Wealthy nations almost tripled their per Malaysia, and how many automobiles capita income sinc,2 mid-century ,but

ir Ending Poverty (137) Thousand Dollars equitable than any nation. The fifth of 10 humanity living in the richest countries Source. Ifbrldwatch. Rich have average incomes 15 times higher based on Summers 8 and Heston than the fifth living in the poorest. Were sufficient data available to group the world's people by their true incomes lather than national average incomes, however, the richest fifth might be found 4- (1980dollars) Middle to earn 30 or 40 times what the poorest / do. 2 For the poor of Africa, Latin Amenca, Poor and parts of Asia, the eighties werea poorest time of cruel reversals, a period when

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 the global economy seemed to conspire Figure 8.1. Income Per Person, against them. On top of therunaway Four Economic Classes of Countries, 1950-88 population growth and acceleratingen- vironmental decline that were already that figure in the poorest countries has dragging down living standards across remained effectively level. (Throughout the Third World, prices for poorna- this chapter, income per person or tions' exports plummeted, and interna- aver- tional debt siphoned a growing share of age income is defined as annual per their income into the hands c!' foreign capita gross (lomestic product in 1980 financiers. U.S. dollars andunlike commonly used Since 1950, the gap between rich and Worki Bank figuresadjusted to reflect poor nations has grown mostly because widely divergent prices for basic goods the rich got richer. But since 1980, in in different countries.)5 many developing countries the poor Wide as the gap between rich and have been getting poorer too. Forty- poor appears when measured in aye' three developing nations probably fin- income, the real situation is worse. Aver- ished the decade poorer, in per capita ages disguise the gross disparities in M- terms, than they started it. The 14 most come distribution that characterize the devastatedincluding Zambia, Bolivia, majority of countries: 60-70 percent of and Nigeriahave seen per capita in- the people in most countries earn less come plunge as dramatically since their than their nation's average income. Al- troubles began as the United States did most nowhere do the poorest fifth of dui ing the Great Depression. Indeed, households collect even 10 percent of the tenn developing nation has become national income, while the richest fifth a cruel parody: many countries are not commonly receive half. (See Table 8-1.) so much developing as they are disinte- Different income ffistributions mean the grating.7 poor may be fairly well off even where The human impacts of the decade's average income is low, or may suffer economic crisis in Africa, Latin Amen(a, greatly where average income is high. In and parts of' Asia have been ruinous. 1985, for example, Egypt's per capita in- Malnutrition is do( umented to be on the come was about half of Peru's, but be- rise in Burma, Burundi, Tbe Gambia, cause Egypt is more equitable, poor Guinea-Bissau, Jamaica, Niger, Nigeria, Egyptians earnee one third more than Paraguay , the Philippines, Nicaragua, El poor Perunans.6 Salvador,, and Pon, and is undoubtedly The world as a whole is probably less increasing elsewhere as well, particulaily (08) State of the ilto 1990 Table 8-1. Approximate Income Distribution of Most Populous Nations and of World, Most Recent Available Year' Households' Share of National Income Poorest Richest Country Year 20 percent 20 percent Equity Ratios2 (percent) China3 1984 12 31 3 Soviet Union 1980 9 36 4 Japan 1979 9 37 4 West Germany 1978 8 40 5 United Kingdom 1982 7 40 6 Bangladesh 1982 45 7

Italy 1977 6 44 7 Indonesia 1976 7 49 8 Egypt 1974 6 48 8 Pakistan 1985 47 India 1976 5 50 10 Philippines 1985 5 53 10

Thailand 1976 5 57 II United Suites 1986 4 46 12 France 1975 4 50 13 Turkey 1973 4 57 16 Mexico 1977 3 54 18 Brazil 1982 9 64 28

World4 1985 .1 53 15

I Data 101VICI11.1111, Nigel:a, and h an ale Una% 2Equit halos (shale uli idlest to share of poorest) %% et I. Lalt Matt d bast. d oil 1.111101111ded Ilk Unit Shalt ILgLU IS and tilos tin.' &totappcal imonsistent %sttli inwine slim es listcd ottl.4Lsio1ated giouping 11.111011S IMO 11%e Llasst.s based on pet capita income sou RCI. S. WOrki Ballk, II OP hl ne,,elopowni Repwt /96S (Nos 1 oik 0,dot d Utin ci su P1 ess. 1988). Ns. (A Id ResouR es Institut,. 11 whl Th ww(es 1988-89 (Nets Nolk B. Books. 1988), Aglia NI. Ghousc, "Utban Pn%cii and UaLnipinment iii Pakistan.- NALttati (mg Lononia DcLunibt i 31, 1988. Joel Bo gsman. hoome Ihthihnhon Poue,A ,n Aletho. Staff Wm king Palm.' 395 (N1 ashingtom Woild Bank. 1980).

Robert 1). 1 bum in, "Sot % ICI IL a11%-- "lr UU i Si111 Not 'Bolo Lhalh ne, Sept& tither/0(.101)o 1988. Su% ict Untoti estimated lioni tChandler, 6liang4ng Role I1 ihe :dm ha n Aahomil NVUI Id- watt h Pape, 72 (Washington, D.cwoo(l%satch Iastitute, Septentho 1986)

among societies' least fortunate mem- in the li%es of en. In Zambia, mice bers. The World Bank t epoits that Flom as man), c bath en died om malnutrition 1979 to 1983 life expectancy f'ell in nine m 1984 as m 1980. The infant mortality African countries, and that more than rate in Brazil rose in 1983 and 198k foi 100 million Africans Lick sufficient food the first time in decades, and rose most to sustain themse1ves.8 steeply in the country's poorest regions. Poerty's most saNage toll is measured Similar trends are afoot in much of the

$ rt) Ending Poverty (139) Third World, leading UNICEF, the lived in absolute poverty. Inpart be- United Nations Children's Fund, tocon-, cause of population growth, that total is chide in its 1989 annual report that "at much larger than ever before. Perhaps least half a million young children have more significant is what this means over- died in the last twelve monthsas a result all. World Bank figures suggest that the of the slowing down or the reversal of global poverty rate stood at 22.3 percent progress in the developing world."9 in1980, after declining steadily but Given the scarcity of consistent data gradually since mid-century. Ourown that directly measure poverty, the global estimate of 1.2 billion people translates poverty rate cannot be determined pre- to a rate of 23.4 percent. During the cisely. Nonetheless, some sensecan be eighties, in other words, the globalpov- gathered of the rate in each developing erty rate not only stopped falling,it country by examining a wide variety of rosedespite substantial reductions in social and econonic indicators, includ- the number of impoverished in thetwo ing the few recendy performedsurveys most populous countries on earth." of household income, from dozens of published and unpublishedsources and from the internal documents of multilateral institutions. Although the margins The poor are overwhelming illiter- of error are wide for each country, total- ate, and therefore lack access to in- ing these individual assessmentson a re- formation and ideas that could help gional basis balances out inaccuracies, them escape poverty. providing the best sketch of the extent of absolute poverty possible withcurrent data. (See Table 8-2.)10 These 1.2 billion people are nota ho- Rising poverty rates in Africa, Latin mogeneous group, but a few generaliza- America, and parts of Asiaappear to tions help answer the question, Whoare have swamped poverty reductions in the poor? Despite rapid urbanization India and China, with the result that in and growing urban poverty in much of 1989 approximately 1.2 billion people the world, four fifths of those in absolute poverty still live in rural areas. Only in Table 8-2. People Estimated to be Living Latin America do a large share of the in Absolute Poverty, 1989 poornearly halflive in cities.12 Number Share of Total The poor are overwhelmingly illiter- Region of People'Populanon ate, and therefore lack access to information and ideas that could help themes- (million) (percent) cape poverty. They are often distinct in Asia 675 25 race, tribe, or religion from dominant Sub-Saharan 325 62 wealthy groups. They are slightlymore Africa likely to be female than male, particu- Latin America 150 35 larly in urban areas, leadingsome ana- North Africa and 75 28 lysts to speak of a global "feminization Middle East of poverty."13 Women's burdens multiply endlessly. Total 1,225 23 They are paid less than men but they 'Estimates are best thought of as midpoints of work more. They are less well educated, ranges that extend 10 pet cent abose and 10 pet- but bear greater responsibility for the cent bebw listed figures. health of children. Theyare expected to SOURCE' Worldwatch Institute. give birth to, raise, and feednumerous

1 5 4 (140) Stale of the froild 1990 preferably maleoffspring and conse- ated in the mid-sixties. In 1979, the eq- quently grow v,eak and ailing as their uity of income distribution began to de- bodies are exhausted by the cy cle of re- teriorate rapidly, by 1986, disparities in peated pregnancy and childbirth. They earnings v% ere the vvorst on i ecord. TWO are sl'ommonly abused and beaten at yearslater, some 32 million Ameri- home, but have few legal rights and cansand one fifth of American chil- fewer property rights. For poor women, drenlived below the official poverty as one Brazilian woman says, "the only threshold." holiday...is when you are asleep. "14 Thus with widening income dispari- Numerically, the group most plagued ties around the globe, it will not be long by poverty is children. As income de- before there is a Third World within the clines,familysizeincreases. Conse- First World, and a First within the Third. quently,perhaps twothirdsof the The inevitable question is, Why does world's absolute poor are under the age poverty continue to spread in an age in- of 15, and the prospects for these young comparably more prosperous than any people are even worse than for their par- in history? ents. Wracked by disease, lacking sufficient nourishment and clean water, one third of these youngsters die before their fifth birthday. Many' of those who survive are physically stunted and mentally im- THE GLOBAL POVERTY AAP paired as a result of chronic hunger during the critical age of six months to two Uruguayan historian Eduardo Cakano years." once wrote,""I he division of labor The v% 01k of the poor is concentrated among nations is that some specialize in at the margins of the global economy. v% inning and others in losing." The glo- Most are landless agricultural laborers, bal division of labor has relegated the sharecroppers, marginal farmers, or, if poor to the role of perpetual loser. They they live in cities, unskilled laborers in are caught by' forces at local, national, the underground economy. What work and global ley els that combine to form a they can find is usually piecemeal and three-tiered trap." unstable, not to mention backbreaking At the local level, elements of the pov- and tedious, yet they m ork hard day in erty trap include skev% ed patterns of ac- and day out." cess to land and other assets, physical The utter depriv ation of absolute pON- eakness and heightened susceptibility erty is rare in affluent lands, y et itis to disease, population growth, and pow- worth noting that the less se% ere form of erlessness against corrupt institutrons. pov erty found there was also on the rise These are reinfor ced atthe national during the eighties, particularly in the le% el by innumerable policiesfrom tax United States, the United Kingdom, and lavy s to the structure of development in- Eastern Europe. One fifth of SON let citi- estmentthat neglect or discriminate zens reportedly lived below the official against the poor. And at the global level, pov city' line of 75 rubles a month ($117, the poor are held dos% n by the devastat- at mid-October 1989 officialate)." ing combination of oppressive debt bur- Inthe United States,the eighties dens, falling export prices, and rising found more people living below the pON- capitalflight.Allthesefactors and erty linejust ONO $12,000 per y ear for forces, like diabolical counterparts to a family of four in 1988than at any Adam Smith's inv isible hand, str engthen time since the War on Poverty' was initi- each other as they' interlock. Ending Povel lv ( 14

The first of the poverty trap's four Africa, though even there it is risingin local parts is the lack of productiveas- more fertile regiohs se.s: the poor are poor not only because Because of the dispossessed state of they earn so little but because theyDwn most of the poor, their day-to-day calcu- so little too. In developing societies, lus of survival now has three variables: where three of four people earn their the availability of work, thewages of- living in agriculture, the most crucial fered, and the price of food. In each as- -t is land. Yet ownership of farmland case, the prospects are not good. Wages is mcentrated in the hands of a fortu- and prices went against thepoor during nac. few. Latin America has the worst much of the eighties. Labor force growth record. The skewedlandownership alone means that nearly 40 millionpeo- there is a legacy of colonial times, when ple enter the job market eachyear. Al- Spanish and Portuguese rulers estab- ready, unemployment and underem- lished vast plantations; 1 percent of ployment, though hidden, are rampant landlords commonly own more than 40 in both urban and ruralareas of the percent of the arable land. Crowded Third World.22 Asian nationsare somewhat better, A debilitating but frequentlyover- while in Africa land is lessscarce and looked dimension of the poor's lack of collectivetribal landholding arrange- assets is then extreme vulnerability to ments moderate inequality." unforeseen expenses and emergencies, Combined with the momentous force such as natural disasters, crop failures, of population growth, maldistribution of illnesses, and the costs of legal battles. land pushes ever more of thepoor into To meet these needs a poor familymust the vulnerable position of being farmers often borrow at usurious rates from without land. As millions ofpoor fami- moneylenders, piling debt on depriva- lies divide already small farms between tion, or must sell or mortgage whatever their children, plots become too small to they have, frequently at distress sale provide subsistence. The mechanization prices. Vulnerability leadsto poverty of agriculture in some regions has dis- ratchets,eventsthatsuddenly make placed millions more, as commercialop- poor people poorer, diminishing at a erators expel sharecroppers, squatters, stroke both their assets and their in- and smallholders. come.23 The typical poor person is no longera The second part of the povertytrap at subsistence farmer but a dispossessed la- the local level is physical weakness and borer; indeed, the number of landless illness. Lacking consistent nourishment, rural houscholds in the world hasnever clean water, basic medical care, and been higher. Estimated in 1981 at 167 sufficient housing space to avoid rapid million households-938 millionpeo- spread of infection, thepoor are chroni- plethe landless and near-landlessare callyweakened bydisease.Physical expected to increase to nearly 220 mil- weakness can combine with low earnings lion households by the end of this to form a vicious circle: for lack of food, decade. They account for a large share the poor have no energy to work; fo, ack of rural families in many developing of work, they haveno money to buy countries, ranging as high as 92 percent food.2' in the Dominican Republic. (See Table Population pressures are the third 8-3.) Reflecting patterns of landconcen- conii)onent of thelocal trap. Rapid tration,landlessnessismostpro- growtl: .n numbers drives wages down to nounced in Latin America, somewhat the survh.1 le% el as the poorcompete less prevalent in Asia, and stillnew to with each other forscarce work.It e (142) Stale of the Mild 1990 Table 8-3. Landless and Near-Landless Agricultural Households, Selected Countries and Africa, Mid-Seventies

Country/Region Neat -Landless Landless Combined (percent of rural households) Dominican Republic' 48 44 99 Guatemala 47 38 85 Ecuador 52 23 75 99 Peru 46 75 Braril 10 60 70

Philippines 34 35 69 Colombia 24 49 66 El Salvador' 65 65 Honduras 46 18 64 Bangladesh' 33 29 62

Costa Rica 11 44 55 India 13 40 53 Mexico 33 18 51 Malaysia 35 12 47

Africa 30 10 40 'Data from late seventies to nud-eighties. SOURCES. WilhatO CI Inesenhusen. ed., Seardang for Agrarian Reform in Latin dmenta (Boston Unwin I-4MM, 1989), Milton.). Esman, Landlomos and .Vear-Landlessness in Developing Countrie.s (hhaca, N.Y Center for International Studies, Cornell Utuyersity 1978), Joel Bcrgsman, Income Distribation and Poveit)111 Memo, St a Working Palm 395 (Washington, D.C. World Bank. 1980). M Riad El Ghonemy, ed , Development ,s'iategies fethe Raral Pon, Lcononnt and Social Deselopment Riper 44 (Rome Food and Agriculture Olganiration, 1984). stretches inv estment resources thin and sometimes misled or intimidated into raises the number of children foi %slum signing away their rights to land or ac- each worker must provide. It overtaxes cepting debt repayment terms that verge natural resources, diminishing their pro- on extortion. Local officials employ well- ductivity. Yet poor couples have large intended laws and regulations to hassle families because they know that some of the less fortunate to the point of paraly- their child, en aic likely to die, and be- sis. Legal systems are often i dead end cause they lack access to family planning. for the poor, riddled as they commonly Having many children is part of a strat- are with procedural delays and corrup- egy for economic securit; : when times tion. In places, the exploitation of poor are bad for some, they may be better for people does not even wear the trappings otht...,.This "strengthin numbers" of legality. The active human rights net- sti ategy lowers the chances of pullin?; works of Brazil and India both report the whole family out of poverty, , but also killings and brutality against the rural reduces the risk of falling deeperinto poor almost daily. When the wealthy go starvation.25 to court against the illiterate pool' there Local poverty also stems from powei- is little competition. When they go to lessness. Unable to read, the poor are war, there is none.26 Ending Poverty ( 143 Inequalities in Third World villages spend putting one student through four are replicated and reinforced at the na- years of college could pay for six years of tional level, where tax laws, budgeting, primary education for a class of 35poor, and voluminous regulations everywhere rural children.28 favor the few over the many. National Likewise, subsidized urban hospitals investmentshavelongbeentilted take the lion's share of public health sharply toward the fortunate inhabitants budgets, but help those who least need of cities and away from the ruralpoor. In assistance.Community-basedhealth the worst cases, pharaonicextravagance workers and rural clinics are consistently fuels the diversion ofresources. Pre- underfunded. Some 70-85 percent of sidentHouphouet-Boignyof ate public health spending in developing d'Ivoire recently completed construc- countries overall goes into expensivecu- tion of a $200-million air-conditioned rative care while community health and cathedral that dwarfs even St. Peter's in preveotive calcombined receive only Rome. Trimmed with nineacres of 15-30 percent. The World Health Orga- French stained glass and Italian marble, nization belieces that increasing annual the church sits in an impoverishedcoun- investment in preventive care by only try where only one tenth of the popula- 750 per person in the Third World tion is Catholic.27 would save 5 million lives each year.29 ate d'Ivoire's new cathedral is an apt symbol for normal practices of development investment in much of the Third The pivotal question is which way World. In dozens of nations,governments have suppressed prices paid to resources are moving across the farmers, siphoning millions of dollars North-South boundary. into grandiose industrialization projects in the capital. The resulting high-technology facilities, inappropriate to local At the international level, debt, trade circumstances of scarcecapitaland protectionisminindustrial countries, abundant unskilled labor, now standas capital flight, and plummeting world monuments to futility and inequity: they prices for the products developingna- either stand idle or, when funded,con- tions export add further layers to the tinuously redistribute wealth frompoor poverty trap. The poor world's debt to farmers and laborers to a few hundred the rich is so colossal that discussions of salaried workers and managers. Either the issue sound surreal. In 1989, the way, governments infatuated with con- Third World owed $1.2 trillionnearly structionof industrial temples have half its collective gross national prod- doomed the hinterlands to worsening uctto industrial-country banks and poverty. governments. If people in Zambia were Government budgets are inequitably to gis e ever, penny they earned to their distributed even within the sectorsos- nation's foreign financiers beginning tensibly aimed at helping the poored- January 1, 1990, they would not have ucation and health.Insub-Saharan paid their debt until May of 1993." Africa, fewer than half the school-age Staggering as the absolute quantities children are enrolled, while large shares of debt are, however, the pivotalques- of education budgets provide highly tion is shich wa resources are moving subsidized university education, dispro- across the North-Soutb boundary. Until portionately to children of the urban 1984, industrial countric gave moleto wealthy.What Africangcvernments developing countries in loans each year

H78 Stott' of the Wolld 1990 than they took back in interest and prin- from rkh ones. All told, World Bank cipal pa) ments. At that point, the flow figures suggest that each year industrial- become a backward torrent, by1988,the country trade barriers cost developing poor were pay ing the rich$50billion a countries$50-100billion in lost sales year. The massive diversion of resources anc, depressed prices.33 to the North has taken a toll not only on Bcy ond the disastrous trends in bank the people of dev eloping lands, but on loans and international trade, economk the land itself. Forests have been reck- turmoil has spooked First World inv es- lessly logged, mineral deposits care- tors and :,scacd national elites to bundle lesslymined, andfisheriesoverex- their fortunes off to foreign b iks. The ploited, all to pay foreign creditors.31 dimensions of this exodus of private Adding insult to injury, as debt piled money are gargantuan: capitalflight on top of developing economies, export from Latin America amounted to about earnings collapsed from under them. $250billion by late 1987. Venezuelans' Most dev eloping countries remain heav- overseas holdings are v alued at$58 bil- ily dependent on exports of such raw lion; the nation's external debt is $37 materials as copper, iron ore, and tim- billion.34 ber, and of such cash crops as sugar, cot- As countries foundered in the inhospi- ton, and coffee. Yet between1980and table wcid economy of the eighties, the 1987; the prices of 33 such commodities World Bank and International Monetary fell by 40 percent on average, catching Fund promoted controversial economic the Third World between the blades of reforms called structural adjustment. rising debt and falling earnings. (See Yet no impoverished nation can reform Figure 8-2)32 its economy sufficiently in the short term Rising trade barriers in rich countries to compensate for massiv e debt burdens are one cause of declining export prices (aggravated by high real interest rates in for poor lands. The European Economic New York) and falling prices forits Coirnnunity, for example, levies a tariff goods (exacerbated by trade policies in four times as high against cloth imported the European Economic Community). from poor, heav ily indebted nations as The economy that most needs adjustment is the global one. Until that takes 1979-81 Billion place, structural adjustment will con- Do lars r--- 100 tinue to be little better than, in the words 140 1,200 Third of UNICEF, "a rearranging of the furni- \Mar ld ture inside the debtors' prison."35 / Debt h-1,000 120-1 h- 800

Commodity r 600 IGO- Price POVERTY AND THE Index - 400 ENVIRONMENT Sources.. 80 fibrld Bank, 200 Most of the world's looming environ- World Resources mental threats, from groundwater con- ' 1988-89 tamination to climate change, are by- '7 T products of affluence. But poverty drives 1970 1980 1990 2000 ecological deterioration when desperate Figure 8-2. Commodity Price Indexes and Total Third World Debt, 1970-87 people overexploit their resource base,

1 5 9 Ending Povei Iv (r45) sacrificing the future to salvage thepre- conditions for ecological degradation sent. The cruel logic of short-term needs spread to more of the earth's fragik forces landless families to raze plots in lands. Two of the mostconunon se- the rain forest, plo w steep slopes, and quences by which poor people fall,or shorten fallow periods. Ecological de- are pushed, into the downward spiral cline, in turn, perpetuates poverty, are as de- illustrated bv the situationsin Nepal and graded ecosystemsofferdiminishing Costa Rica. yields to their poor inhabitants. A self- feeding downward spiral of economic deprivation and ecological degradation takes hold. Nothing incites peopleto deplete In the rural Third World, human reli- forests, soils, or water supplies ance on ecosystems goes unmediated by faster than fear they willsoon lose the long chains of commerce, industry, access to them. and civil infrastructure that shape life in rich countries. For the have-nots, food comes from the soil, water from the Nepalexemplifiesthewaysheer stream, fuel from the woods, fodder growth of human numbers fuels the spi- from the pasture, and fruit from the ral, as human practices ata given level of trees around the hut. Poor people know technology exceed a local environment's well that to endanger any of these things carrying capacity. As population swells, is to imperil themselves and the lives of peasants in highland valleys are forced theirchildren.Farmers withsecure to expand their plots onto steep forested rights to a piece of land tendto care for hillsides, extending women's journeysto it meticulously, taking a long-term view gather fuel and fodder. Over thepast and forgoing current benefits for de- decade,duringwhichforestshave pendable future gains. receded to half their originalextent, The central pole around which the women's daily journey has increased by downward spiral turas is the lack ofre- more than an hour, their workday in the sourcesthe first element of the local fields has shortened, family incomes poverty trap. Poor but secure smallhold- havefallen, and dietshavedeteri- ers rarely overburden their land; dispos- orated.37 sessed and insecure rural households Shubh Kumar and David Hotchkiss of often have no choice but to doso. Access the International Food Policy Research to a resource without control over it can Institute (IFPRD in Washingtonreport be equally harmful. Nothing incitespeo- not only that food consumption in the ple to deplete forests, soils,or water sup- region has fallen by 100 caloriesper per- plies faster than fear they willsoon lose son on average, but that in village after access to them. Neither hired workers, village childhc d malnutritionrates and nor hired managers, nor tenant farmers defo-estation rates are closely coupled. care for land as well as owners do. In In the hills of Nepal, in other words, the Thailand's forests, squatters given long- health of a village's childrencan be read term rights to use their plot care for the in the retreating ti ee lineon surround- land better than squatters withno legal ing slopes." standing, but not as wellas those who Where population density is lessacute own their plots outright.36 than in Nepal, skewed landownership As the global poverty trap tightens patterns have the same effectlarge and the world's poor become increas- holdings are underattended, small hold- ingly insecure and dispossessed, the ings overburdened, and millions left

1 60 (146) State of the World 1990 landless. In Costa Rica, a country often are pulled into the downward spiral in praised for its enlightened environmen- growing numbers. Jeffrey Leonard of tal policies, the poor have been driven the World Wildlife FundConservation into this desperate state largely by a cat- FoundationinWashingtonhasat- tle boom that has swept the nation since tempted to roughly quantify this trend the early sixties. Costa Rica was once al- using data from the World Bank, the most completely cloaked in tropical for- United Nations, and IFPRI.41 est, holding within its small confines per- Leonard's estimatesfocus onthe haps 5 percent of all plant, animal, and poorest fifth of people in developing inscct species on earth. By 1983, after countries, a subset including about 780 two decades of explosive growth in the million of the absolute poor. He calcu- cattle industry, pastures covered roughly lates that 370 million of these-47 per- half the nation's arable land, only 17 cent of the totallive on marginal or percent of the original forest remained, fragile lands, where at today's popula- and soil erosion was rampant.39 tion densities the downward spiral is al- Aside from its ecological toll, the cat- most inevitable. If this ratio holds true tle boom has been an economic debacle. not just for the poorest fifth of people in It was driven not so much by market the Third World, but for the entire class forces as by heavy flows of international of people in absolute poverty, then 580 capital to, and special treatment for, the million people are now trapped in the 2,000 politically powerful ranching fami- downward spiral. Many others suffer lies who control the industry. The Costa from environmental degradation, but Rican poor, for their part, have only got- the impact on their living standards is ten hunger out of the deal. Smallholders more limited so far.42 have been pushed from their land to The same forces that have pushed 580 make way for four-legged competitors. million people into the downward spi- Rural employment opportunities dried rallack of secure control over re- up because ranching is the least labor- sources, population growth, inequity, intensiveagriculturalactivityin the and misguided policiesare largely re- country The rising tide of landlessness sponsible for the deterioration of mar- has spilled over into the expanding cit- ginal, nonagricultural land. Throughout ies, onto the fragile slopes, and into the history, poor people have drawn on a forests, where families left with little resource base far larger than their own choice accelerate the treadmill of defor- land. They gather fruits,nuts,fish, estation.° game, roots, leaves, fibers, reeds, dung, 1 he poverty trap patterns seen in and wood from so-called common prop- Nepal and Costa Rica reappear on every erty resourceshillside forests and low- continent, and the net effect is universal: land swamps; rivers,riverbanks, and the poor are increasingly Loncentrated floodplains; lakes and lakeshores; open in fragile regions where land is least pro- rangeland and dense thickets. These ductive and tenure least securearid areas are a critical safety net for the and semiarid lands, mountain slopes, poor, providing a fallback means of sur- tropical forests, and sprawling shanty- vival. In dryland regions of India, the towns around overcrowded cities. The landless gather one filth of their annual geographic concentration of poverty in income, along with numerous nomnar- inhospitable lands is driven partially as keted goods, by harvesting the natural people move in, but more so by the products of common areas.43 heightened population growth rates that Over generations, most agricultural poverty itself brings. Inevitably, the poor and fishing v illages and pastoral bands

1 6 1 Ending Povoly (1-17) evolved intricate codes of conductto authority and legitimacy of traditional avoid depleting the commonsupon management regimesand thereby which they depended. Yet in vastareas poor people's control ovel theirre- of the Third World, common lands source basewithout providing a viable and the management systems thatpoor substitute. Predictably, these failedgoy - people used on themhave beenover- ernment policieshave left therich run: privatized by the fortunate, over- richer, the poor poorer, and theenviron- burdened by the unfortunate, orappro- ment denuded. priated by the state. In the northern Satlel region of Mali, In a study of Indian drylandcommons, for example, villages traditionallyen N.S. Jodha of the International Crops forced local restrictions on tree cutting Research Institute for the Semi-Arid for sheep and goat fodder by confiscat- Tropics in Patanchcru, India, found that ing and slaughtering the best breeding over the past three decades more than male of the offender's flock. Thispun- half the common property distributed ishmem, swift and harsh, kept forests in- through the government agrarianre- tact over centuries. When government form program has ended up in the hands fot esters began to implement theprevi- of those who alreadyown significant ously declared nationalization of wood- quantities of land. And in Botswana, lands in the late sixties, however, villag- communal pasture in the savannah has ers who enforced the traditional rules been fenced by large ranchers, withsup- became liable for breaking the law. For- port from the World Bank. Many so- ests have since been severely depleted.45 called land reforms in Latin America Even where poverty is not a cause of have simply exported the rural under- environmental decline, it is a ticket to class to a fragile rain forest frontier, suffer environmental abuses caused by where new settlers lay waste toecosys- others. The poor of the mammoth cities tems previously harvested for genera- of the Third World face all the environ- tions by tribal people. Almost without mentalperilsof underdevelopment exception, the net effect of state land along with those of overdevelopment. policies has been to curtail drastically Their cookstoves fill their hovels with common property resources open to the old-fashioned smoke, multiplying the poor without expanding their private danger of respiratory diseases suchas property re3ources commensurately .44 tuberculosis that run rampant through The deterioration of commonareas is crowded slums. In the streets, they sometimes most directly caused by the breathe air polluted in concentrations breakdown of traditional management that ris al the worst recorded in industrial regimes that takes place as governments lands. (See Chapter 6.) Lacking ade- nationalize the resource lx,se or inter- quate sewerage and water supplies, they vene obtrusively in its use. Since the be- drink and bathe in water contaminated ginning of this century, newly indepen- with both human and chemical wastes.46 dent nations freeing themselves from The shantytowns of the poorare colonial bonds have followed their colo- found in areas eschewed by the better nizers' path, codifying the earlier policy off: in floodplains, on perilous slopes, that common resources are tlw domain aroundsometimes ingarbage dumps of the sovereign. Contradictory legal containing unknown quantities of toxic rights and merlapping jurisdictions, materials, and nein hazardous industrial often combined with weakor corrupt zones. The fact that Bhopal's victims ministries and courts, have undercut the were overwhelmingly poor was no coin- (148) Sla le of lhe World 1990 cidence; industrial accidents worldwide heat waves,famines, and social take the lives of those who cannot afford upheavalall likel} to be commonplace to live far from the belching stacks.47 in a greenhouse worldare precisely the The disproportionate exposure of the events, the poverty ratchets, th7t tend to poor to pollution and hazardous materi- make poor people poorer. als has gone almost unmeasured in the In addition, climate change could di- Third World, but some idea of its magni- vert resources away from the poor on a tude can be gathered Is, examining the scale unimaginable today. The debt bur- situation in the Unitecs states. Neighbor- den of the eightieson which UNICEF hood-by-neighborhood comparisons of blames the death of a half-million chil- income level, race, and toxic waste site dren per year--could be dwarfed by the location reveal a disturbing but not so climate burden of the twenty-first cen- surprisingpattern. The poorerthe tury. Health, education, and antipoverty neighborhood, and the darker the skin budgets would probably be slashed as of its residents, the more likely it is to be governments poured hundreds of billions of dollars into sea walls, new irriga- near a toxic waste dump. Three fourths tionsystems, floodprevention, and of hazardous waste landfills in the Amer- countless other projects. Throughout ican Southeast are in low-income, black economic history, hara times have al- neighborhoods, and more than half of most always widened the gap between all black and Hispanic Americans live in rich and poor. There is no reascto be- communities with atleast one toxic lieve uncontrolled climate change will be waste site. As in the United States, so in a story with a different ending.49 the Third World: the rich get richer, and With perhaps 580 million poor people the poor get poisoned.48 trapped in the crushing downward spiral of economic and environmental deterioration, the future of poverty allevia- In the United States, the poorer the tionand of environmentalprotec- neighborhood, and the darker the tionwill contain unprecedented skin of its residents, the more likely challenges. Hundreds of millions already sufkr f rem deforestation, deser- it is to be near a toxic waste dump. tification, fuelwood scarcity, erosion on mountain slopes nd urban air pollution. If, along with uncontrolled climate The environmental victimization of change, these other trends continue the poor extends beyond local hazards. along their current trajectories, the pov- The potential poverty impacts of global erty rate will almost certain!) skyrocket, climate change are incalculable. Low- perhaps doubling world Nide 13) the sec- lying countries such as Bangladesh, ond half of the next century. Egypt, Indonesia, and Thailand could In other words, following a business- lose large areas of cropland as seas rise as-usual course into the future could and storms become more sever, the doom half of humanity to absolute pov- next 30-40 years. (See Chapter 5.) Many erty by sometime between 2050 and of the world's most productive agricul- 2075. Whatever the numbers, if destruc- tural areas will suffer higher heat, re- tive environmental trends are not con- duced rainfall, or both, increasing the trolled, the downward spiral will accelei - frequency of massive crop failures. (See ate out of control, pulling in many Chapter 4.) Storms, floods, droughts, millions more.

I c 3 Ending Poverty ( 149 ) REVERSING THE DOWNWARD regions as poor people organize themselves to fight poverty and environmen- SPIRAL tal decline. Indeed, the acceleratingpro- National development, while benefiting liferation of self-help groups is the most the middle and upper classes hand- heartening trend on the poverty front. somely, has either helped the poor little Grassroots action has grown steadily, if or actually hurt them. Yet the means and unevenly, since mid-century, as anex- methods are at hand to alleviate the panding latticework of religious and nonreligious independent development worstaspectsof absolutepoverty. Around the world, public and private groups have organized among the poor. Self-help organizations spread explo- initiatives have created hundreds of in- sively in the eighties, as economic and novative ways to pry openif only environmental conditions deteriorated. slightlythe jaws of the poverty trap. Grassroots environmental and anti-pov- Turning this potential into reality, how- erty groups probably number in the hun- ever, will require national governments dreds of thousands, and their collective and international agencies to redefine membership in the hundreds of millions. development goals. It will also require Spotlighting a few successful efforts decisive international action. helps reveal the opportunities for dra- True development puts first those that matic progress when the poorare en- societyputslast.Inthe words of abled to overcome old barriers." Mahatma Gandhi: "Whenever youare in Information is one of the most impor- doubt... apply the following test. Recall tant assets, and innovative educational the face of the poorest and the weakest programs have found ways to bring it to man whom you may have seen, and ask the poor. In Bolivia's rugged Yungasre- yourself if the step you contemplate is gion, hundreds of impoverishedpeas- going to be of any use to him. Will he ants take high-school-level courses in gain anything by it? Will it restore himto market towns when they come to sell a control over his own life and des- their produce. The curriculum, designed tiny?"" by a dedicated independent group called For development to help the poor, it CETHA to be relevant to local condi- must put them first not only as intended tions, also offers intensive, week-long beneficiaries, but as active participants, vocational courses during the agricul- advisors, and leaders. True develop- tural slack season. Most important, the ment does not simply provide for the effort has managed to enroll nearlyas needy, it enables them to provide for many women as men. Studies on every continent show that as female literacy themselves. This implies a great deal of rates rise so do income levels, nutrition humility on the part of outsiders. Asnu- levels, and child survival rates; at the trition analyst Paulus Santosa put it, "It same time, population growth slows, as would be very hard to find professional women gain the self-confidence to assert nutrition workers in Indonesia today control over their bodies." who can raise a family of five with U.S. A new generation of loan programs $0.50 per day and stay healthy." Onpov- has found a direct and highly effective erty,the only true experts are the poor.51 way to increase poor people's access to productive assets. The world's premier The groundwork for true develop- loans-for-the-poor program was initi- ment is expanding impressively in man ated in 1976 by Bangladeshi Mohammad

I r ,1 (150) State of the Woild 1990 Vunus. He began distributing tin) loans, Returning «moo! meilocalre- arouno $65 apiece, to landless N. illagers sources to illagels can hae dramatic so that they could bu) basic assets, such effects. In the de) astate(1 Araah hills of as nce Inillei s, (ows; and raw materials. the west Indian state of Rajasthan hes The pi oiect has sin ead like wildfire e%er the ( nnmunit) of Seed, whose tribal in- since. in 1983, Vunus established the habitants hae registered then village Grameen (Village) Bank, which b) Cad) undo the little-used state Gramdan A t. 1989 had a half-million borrow ers, most The neglected act, inspired b) Gandhi, of them w omen. Repa)ment rates cue transfers all common lands in the N. illage her than for an) commercial lending to the local council. The results of em- program, and GI ameen's clients hae pow cling the communit) are plain!) ugmented their incomes dramaticall). theN. illage, write Indian emiron- One stud) found borrow ers earning -13 mental anahsts Anil Agarw al and Sunita lament more than then counterparts in Narain, "is lush gi een and full of grass, neal by unaffected %illages. Income gains like an oasis in the denuded Araalis." w ere largest, furthermore, for the poor- E%en during the se% ere drought of 1987, est borrowers.54 when cattle died by the thousands in neighboring areas, Seed's villagers filled 80 bullock carts with grass.56 For dew iopment to help the poor, I'oor people's physical weakness from it must put them first, as active par- malnutrition andillnesscan beal- leviated through low-cost, participatory ticipants, advisors, and leaders. provision of clean drinking water and basic health care. In ICS , Tanzanian health authorities meeting with Trees are another asset that can hbei - dozens of commui ti.to discuss the ate the poor. In the Indian state of West Inst strateg) for an all-out assault on Bengal, a gmernment program has en- child mortalit). Kkked off in one region abled N. illagers to turn a halfhearted land with UNICEF assistance in 1983, the reform into a route out oldie downward program is a model of social mobiliza- spiral. In the Midnapore District, Is ith a tion from the international to the illage population of 7 million, an agrai ian !mei, imob.ing gmernment, the media, form in the late seennes assigned small and fresh!)organized illagehealth plots in &graded commons to landless committees. At iegularl) scheduled Vil- families. These infertile allotments re- lage Health Days, parents and newly mained %aunt until1981w hen the trained health workers weigh and )acci- new!) founded Ci oup Farm Forestr) nate children, treat connnon ailments, Program began distributing free nee and discuss health and nutrition. B) seedlings. Man) illagers em oiled and 1988, the incidence of smere malnutri- cmered then land with the hardy trees. tion had fallen by near!) two thirds, and Villagers in the Nagina areP., mostly the child death rate by a third.57 lower caste and ti ibal people, used the Powerlessness is perhaps the most te- bulk of their earnings to purchase small nacious local aspect of the pm ert) trap. in igated fields in the fei- tile N. alle)s Ii om Land -eforms,clfal c s) stems, employ- absentee landloids. Distribution of de- ment programs, minimum wages, basic graded ( ommonland, follow id b) nee infrastructure 17.1%esonents, and health culm anon, thus became self-help land and nutrition assistance are (ommon!) reform 55 delayed,distortedsometimesplun-

n5 Ending Poverty ( 151 ) deredby landowners, intermediaries, a ley el unknown any whe,-e else m India: and petty officials. A decade ago, when a recent survey of basic services in a half- theBangladeshRural Advancement million villages ranked Kerala first in 15 Committee (BRAG), an indepenoent de- of 20 categories. Immunizationcam- velopment organization, undertook an paigns cover most of the population. emergency famine aid effort in a border Schools and clinics are spread through- region,itquickly discovered govern- out the state, along with "fair price ment relief should have been more than shops" that sell basic goods to thepoor sufficient.Butlocallandlordsand at low cost. Safe drinking water supplies moneylenders had formed a "complex and family planning services are availa- net of co-operative connections linking ble to a large and growing share of the them into a seemingly irresistible net- population." work of corruption." Interviewing landless people in 10 villages, BRAC took A comprehensive land reform pro- record,' of land grabs, unfair loans, gram begun in 1969 gave 1.5 million embezzlements, and bribes. As the per- tenants and laborers rights to the land vasiveness of the scam was revealed, the they tilled or to their homes and gar- poor organized themselves to reclaim dens. Despite per capita income less property wrongfully taken and to get than two thirds the all-India average, their due from government offices.88 Kerala's adult literacy rateis almost fhe inspiring antipoverty efforts de- twice the national mark, its people typi- scribed above give a sense of the force cally live 11 years longer, its birth rate is unlea.s_ied when development starts with one third lower, its infant death rate is the poorest. In the final analysis, how- two thirds lower, and inequalities be- ever, ending poverty requires more than tween sexesand castesare less pro- a piecemeal approach; it requires , gov- nounced than in any other state." ernment that explicitly dire.:ts policy to- The ingredients of Kerala's success ward aiding the least fortunate. In coun- are a common thread running through tries of aH ideological hues. nove. ty has effective efforts to dismantle the poverty retreated dramat.rally onlyhen ambi- trap worldwide: Literacy, especially for tious programs have been in place to women, gives access to information ano create the foundations of equitable de- leadstohigher incomes, improved velopment. health, and smaller families. Secure land The state of Kerala, India, prov ides a rights allow the poor to increase income model of incremental but comprehen- and economic security. Local con tiol sive pov ertyalleviation unch.r demo- o er common resouices helps an est the cratic rule. This southern Indian f;te, ecological dov,nward spiral. Credit lets with a population as largeas Canada's in the p get pioduztive assets such as an area the size of Switzerland, has been liv estock and tools. Clean drinkingw atel putting the poor first for decades. Peas- and primary health care !educe the inci- ants and laborers there are exceptionally dence of debilitating diseases that kill well organized and N oca 1, thanks to a his- children(inducingparentstohav e tory of social activ ism among the edu- larger families) and sap adults' strength. cated classes, and have been able to elect Familyplanninggives poor women governmentscommittedtohelping means to effectiv ely control their fertil- them.89 ity. space births at a healthy interval, and Kerala's villages have access to health, improv e their own health. Grassi ootsor- education, and transportation sei ices at ganizations enable the pool to direct the

rib (152) State of the Woild 1990 des elopment p1 mess and to accelerate against imports from poor nations, help- prog:ess by working together. ing des eloping nations disersify away Implementing poserty alley ninon pro- from dependeme on sulatile wmmodity grams locally and nationally, how eser, markets, and Y% orking towal d interna- will come to little without complemen- tional cooperation to track and tax capi- tary reforms at the international level, tal flight. V here the debt burden remains undi- Finally, poverty alle% iation must look minished and thethreatof climate to the threat of global climate change, change hangs like Damocles' sword. If which if allowed to run its course could World Bank and International Monetary os ens helm all other progress against Fund structural adjustment packages in- destitution. Os er the long run, fossil fuel wrporated some of the antiposerty pri- use in industrial countries may be the orities Just outlined they would often most important determinant of the glob- help both the unfortunate and the econ- al pm, erty rate. Ey ery year that passes omy oserall, by enabling poor people to without an international accord to stabi- generatemoreincome.Alternately, lize and then reduce greenhouse gas structuraladjust.nentmightsimply emissionseffectivelydooms millions focus on remosing economic distortions more to lb, e as paupers. At the same and inefficiencies that benefit primarily time, insofar as deforestation contrib- the rich. Because adjustment plans are utes to global warming, and poserty to often quickly drawn, they tend to re- deforestation, pm erty allesianen has a incise obvious subsidies to the poor, place in any comprehensive climate pro- such as those on food, without touching tection plan. invisible subsidies to the rich; such as No one can question that there is protection of industrial scctors.62 something morally bankrupt about a Reversing the downward spi, al means world where, amid extravagant abun- negotiatmg deep cuts in the debt burden dance, one quarter of the human family in exchange for policy reforms to help is doomed to an unremitting battle for the poor out of the cycle of environmen- survival. But posertyis more than a tal imposerishment. Moses to cancel moral issue. Failure to launch an all-out some African nations' debts to western assault on poverty will not only stain the g-sernments are a good start, as is U.S. history of our age, it will guarantee the Treasury Secretaly Brady's call for re- destruction of much of our shared bio- ducing Latin nations' debt to prisate sphere.I'malthoughens ironmental banks. But more comprehensis e action damage penalizes the poor mole consis- will be required. Since e3.rly in the debt tently and ses eiely thanitdoes the crisis,banks have formed an almost wealthy,the circle esentually becomes united front, but debtor nations have complete. neser joined together tocoordinate When the poor destioy ecosy stems in their I argaming positions. Reaching a desperation, they are not the only ones final solution may requ;r,. --fndtable in- who suffer. Sheets of lain %%fishing off tei national negotiations between debt- denudedy% ater,hedsfloodexclusise Oi s and creditorsin Intel national debt neighboi hoods as suiely as slums. Po- eduction agreement, and an appropt l- tentially saluable medicines lost with the ate impartial mechanism." extinction of rain fOrest species are as Bey ond debti chef, unlocking the unas ailable to the rich in their pris ate global poserty trap %killm equil e low Cr- hospitals as they are to the pool in their ing industnal-countly trade restsictions tu al clinics. And the cal bon dioxide re- Ending Povei ty (r53) leased as landless migrants burn plots in is immutably bonded to the fate of the the Amazon or the Congowarms the dispossessed through the land;water, globe as surely as do the fumes from and air: in an ecologically endangered automobiles and smokestacks in Los An- world, po-.erty is a luxury we canno lon- geles or Milan. The fate of the fortunate ger afford.

IMMIMIIMMIEr 9 Convertingto a Peaceful Economy Michael Renner

Since biblical times, people have been The world now has a remarkable op- admonished to beat swords into plow- portunity to redirect society's priorities. shares. Never has such adv ice been more Following a decade that started with a appi opriate. The relentless pursuit of rash of new wars and confrontation, di- mihary might has brought humanity to plomacy and ov ertures toward disarma- the brink of annihilation. Perhaps worse, ment are renewing hopes for a less vio- the priorities of the global arms race lentworld. The cold war thathas have also kept us from meeting pressing gripped us for almost half a century is social and environmental needs. waning. The world witnessed a dramatic Crushing pov erty, rampant disease, sign of this when the Berlin Wall crum- and massive illiteracy characterize the bled. Several hot spots in the Third lives of hundreds of millions in develop- Worldthe PersianGulf, Nicaragua, mg countries. And in many industrial Namibia, Angola, and Western Sahara nations,a growingunderclasshas appear to be cooling off. emerged, some innei -city areas resem- Major arms control and disarmament ble war zones, not places for people to treaties are in the offing that, if con- e. Nations dev oting a large portion of cluded, would release a great deal of re- then wealth to the militai y have done so sources. The proposed Strategic Arms at the expense of economic vitality. All Reductions Talks (START) agreement of humanityrich or poor, militarily would cut U.S. and Soviet strategic nu- strong or weakconfronts the specter of clear weapons b) roughly one third. unprecedented env ironmental devasta- Fueled by pervasive health and eny iron- tion. Military spending may not cause all mental problems associated w ith the su- these problems. But the dev otion of perpowers' nuclear weapons mdusuies, large-scale resources to bu;Iding military a negotiated ban on the production of all po ci has stopped us from addressing nuclear weapons materials has been pro- them adequately) posed. In Europe, strong momentum Converting to a Peaceful Economy (155 ) can be found for denuclearization and a tion programs, eny ironmental protec- sharp reduction of conventional forces. tion, and other areas of need. And U.S. and Soviet negotiatorsare edg- ing toward a treaty mandating the destruction of chemical weapon stockpiles, though the Bush administration insists on continued production. INITIAL OBSTACLES These developments are accompanied by strong budgetary pressureson virtu- Converting a great deal of a society 's ally all governments to rein in military productive wealth to civilian use isno spending. The U.S. military budget has doubt an ambitious undertaking, but begun to level off in real terms, with fur- there should be no insurmountable ther reductions expected, and the Sovi- problems. The major barriers are not ets have announced significant cutbacks. technical but political, ranging from the Arms export sales have declinedfrom power and agendas of vested interests to a peak of about $57 billion in 1984 to the widespread misconception that mili- $47 billion in 1987due largelyto eco- tary spending makes good economic nomic crises in many developingna- sense. tions. The global arms budget,an es- Military contractors have little incen- timated $1 trillion per year,may indeed tive to move out of defense work: They have peaked.2 enjoylow-riskoperations,generous Clearly, the world's armies and mili- cost-plus contracts, and large profits. tary industries willstill remain large, Conversion would mean a loss of power even with these recent developments. andprivilege.Conversiou advocates Wars still rage in many areas. Anda Lloyd Dumas and Suzanne Gordon ob- number of developing countriesare ac- serve that it "is seen as a fundamental tually expanding their capacity tomanu- challenge to management's important facture arms. Nevertheless, there is prerogativesthe ability to shut down a operations whenever and wherever it growing sense that the world is ata his- desires and to produce whatever toric juncture, the beginning ofa new it era in international relations in which re- wants, whenever, wherever, and how- liance on force is increasingly counter- ever it wants.- Indeed, according to Jon- productive. athan Feldman of the National Commis- sion In an age of weapons of mass destruc- for Economic Conversion and Disarmament, a private group in Wash- tion and delivery systems of global ington, D.C., "in the past, top military reach, arms no longer provide thesecu- managers have resisted planning for rity we expect; more important, thepur- conversion to the point that they have suit of military prowess is undermining sacrificed facilities to permanent closure our economic health. Yet few govern- rather than propose their i euse for civil- ments, communities, or military contrac- ian purposes through conversion."3 tors have the expertise and the institu- Without a convincing economic alter- tions to reverse the armamentprocess native to defense jobs, military industry without social and economic upheaval employees see disarmament as a threat Accomplishing this difficult task willre- to their livelihoods. Most engineers are quire a careful program or et_onomic reluctant to transfer to civilian jobs, conversionreleasingresources now which tend to be less well paid andin- tied up in the military sector and plan- volve less exotic tasks. This distinctionis ning for their use in health and educa- not so pronounced for the average de-

170 (156) Slate of the n'olld 1990 fense production worker. But as long as Michigan, found tha 321 out of the 435 military orders are 'Teen ed and emplo}- U.S. congressional d.stricts in effect pay ment appears secure, most workers are a "net Pentagon tax" The} pay more in apparent4 w illing to stick w ith arms pro- defense-obligated federal taxes than is duction .4 returned to them in militory salaries and contract money. The few winners are mostly concentrated along coastal and The myth of military-led prosperity southernstates,inwhathasbeen has obscured the fact that civilian dubbed the "gun belt."6 Experience in the United States and spending creates significantly more elsewhere demonstrates that military-re- jobs. lated employment rises and falls with the government procurement cycle and the vagaries of international re,ations. (See National defense establishments are Figure 9-1.) During the Carter-Reagan predictably hostile to the prospect of buildup, jobs in the military industry genuine conversion planning because it doubledto almost 3.4 millionbe- would jeopardize their command over a tween 1976 and 1987, a postwar level sizable portion of society's resources surpassed only during the conflict in and, thus, a good measure of political Korea.Strong budgetarypressures, power. The politics of the military pork however, have already caused a decline barrel not only provides the Defense De- from 1987's peak and portend a severe partment with a lever to press for con- retrenchment in the years ahead.7 tinued high military spending, it is a seri- West Germany's military industry em- ousimpedimenttoaconversion ployment has followed a similar roller- program: every military-dependent coaster even though, unlike the United community represents a formidable con- States, the country was not involved in stituency for maintaining the status quo. any wars. The number of jobs rose rap- In the United States, for example, the idly to peak at almost 350,000 in 1961, Pentagonhasquiteconsciouslyat- but fell to 200,000 by 1973. Since then, tempted to spread military work across employment has increased to roughly as many congressional districts as possible, to hedge against the possibility that Million Representatives and Senators will vote Jobs against controversial weapons projects. Even where their political philosophy in- 5T clines them otherwise, members of Con- gress are likely to vote for military pro- gramsvitaltolivelihoodsintheir districts.5 Themythofmilitary-ledpros- peritya conviction rooted in the U.S. experience of the forties, when war spending pulled the economy out of the Depressionremains a major obstacle Source: U.S Dept. of Defense to conversion. In truth, the military pork T barrel turns out to be empty for most 1950 1960 1470 1480 1990 2000 communities. A recent stu(1) 1)) Emplo- Figure 9-1. Employment In U.S.Military Industry. ment Research Associates in Lansing, 1950-89

-A r- r7 A i 1 Concerting to a Peaceful Economy (157) 280,000, but it is likely to decline again efit if the resources now absorbed by de- as the procurement cycle comes to an fense were used in the civilian realm. Yet end 8 because the military sector in many Apart from the ups and downs of pro- countries is of such enormous size, with- curement cycles, 2rms productionis out proper preparation the rechanneling steadily becoming more capital-inten- could lead to economic disruption and sive, reducing the number ofjobsgener- social dislocation. With aconversion ated per military dollar. In the United strategy in place, however, reversing the Kingdom, for example, military indus- arms buildup becomes an economic op- trial employment declined by 25 percent portunitynot a penalty." (from roughly 1 million) between 1963 and 1978. Even though the early years under Prime Minister Thatcher brought a major rearmament program, jobs cre- ed by military outlays fell by a further WTIAT IS CONVERSION? t0,000 between 1978 and 1986.9 Continued belief in the myth of mili- Conversion goes beyond a mere retary-led prosperity has obscured the fact shuffling of people and money. Itin- that civilian spending creates signifi- volves a political and institutional trans- cantly more jobs. In the United States, formation. Although the military sector for example, spending $1billion (in could take over some civilian responsi- 1981 dollars) on guided missile produc- bilities, such an approach falls short of tion creates about 9,000 jobs; when pio- the degree of public accountability and ducing military aircraft, it creates 14,000 democratization of decision making that jobs. But spending the same amounton conversion promises. Moreover since local transit would yield 21,500 jobs;on the war-making capacity of the defense educational services, 63,000 jobs; and departments would remain relatively un- on air, water, and solid waste pollution constrained, a shift away from military contrnl, 16,500 jobs. According to Em- priorities could easily be reversed. ployment Research Associates, a $40- "Diversification" is often offered as an billion conversion program could bring escape from dependence on military a net gain of more th-n 650,000 jobs.I0 contracts and an alternatise to conver- These findings are corroborated by sion. A defense contractor may lessen studies in other countries. For example, reliance on military orders simply by ac- 1 billion deutsche marks ($570 million at quiring othei companies, oi a defense- 1988 exchange rates) saved in the West dependent community may seek greater German military budget and spent on economic balance by attracting new alternative programs would createat firms to the area. Yet such strategiesare least 800 more jobs, and possibly up to not concerned with finding alternative 6,500 more, than would be lost in the uses for the work force and resources militarysector.InIndia, $13,500is previously tied up in military produc- needed to generate one job in an ord- tion. In fact, they often go hand in hand nance factory, compared with $3,800 in with plant closures and massive layoffs. industry generally, and a mere $80-90 in DiYersification, as primarily a financial road construction or agriculture." strategy, may be good fbr a company's The lost economic opportunities that balance sheets, but its alue for society is militaiy spending entails are echoed in questionable." investment trends, productivity, and in- The most immediate task in any con- flation. Undoubtedly, society would ben- y ersion undel taking is to identify the re-

1 .t.at 4, (158) State of the iVolld 1990 sources imoly ed in the military sector and communities on defense spending. essentially to make an in \ entory of exist- The military industry is not only geo- ing skills and equipment at all military graphically concentrated, it is also heav- related facilities, from reseal ch labs to ily oriented toward a handful of indus- arms production sites to military bases trialsectorsanddisproportionately and to assess the likely impact of any reliant on engineeis,scic itists,and disarmament measures on the soik managers. Thus w hat seems negligible force and the local comnuinity. on the aggregated national level may Enough information is publicly al, aila- pose grave adjustment problems during ble to sketch a rough global picture of disarmament. In part because of a strong these resources. Worldwide, the military desire for secrecy, most governments sector absorbs between one quarter and proYide too little information that is, one third of all R&D expenditures, capi- not detailed enough in geographical, tal imestment, and scientists and eng- sectoral, and occupational termsfor a neers employed. Although this industry firm assessment of the specific problems is highly capital-intensive, in some coun- and promises of conversion. tries ;t nevertheless accounts for a sig- Although better data are needed at the nificant share of the industrial w ork local level, we can assess roughly how force." (See Table 9-1.) many people and what resources global National merages, howey er, under- disarmament would make available for state the dependence of certain regions alternati e ciilian purposes. Four possi- Table 9-1. Share of Industrial Work Force Employed in Military-Serving Industry, Selected Countries, Mid-Eighties Employment Share of Employment Share of in Military Industrial in Mihtary Industrial Country Industry Employment' Country Industry Employment' (thousand) (percent) (thousand) (pet cent) Israel 90 22.6 Norway 15 2 7 Malaysia 3 18 0 Singapore 11 2.7 United States 3,350 11.1 Italy 160 2.3 China 5,000 10 0 Turkev 40 2.3 Soviet Union 4,800 9.7 Sweden 98 9.2

United Kingdom 700 9.0 Spain 66 2 0 France 435 6 3 Austria 16 1.4 Argentina 60 5.0 Nethet lands 18 1.3 Egypt 100 4.1 Pakistan 40 0.8 India 280 3.0 Braril 75 0.7 West Germany 290 2.8 South Korea 30 0 7

Lniplm Inuit mikt," nithiqn SU d (,)(41 (niploN,IR, 11, "lung. ciciancny. vatcr,and ronsu 'action industries S(;tkt,F I ()IA indusnial en-phi% mum fu(Iin Matiqual Itwrbook 19S5 S (Ni k L'inad Natuffls. 1988). iiiiIitiiiiidst emosim lIirmil h Istitith ba d (in ikki ,l I 1, Ihu, wll, pois Coro r stun in Dl ft. us( latud Indust Dis,111lialill Mid LIIIplUN Int 111 oghnn, \, oi king Paw. NU Uni" n,""ffial Libma Otki1is."1". (, ,""a. 1980. Ull Ni"" I Buos" d'id I h'iinds Ohlson." Iade iii Nlapir tons entioiLd NA caponsI II(' Changing Pam 17, No 3-1, 1986, and on othei sources

t ..rg.1=m-...... in

Convertmg to a Peaceful Economy (159) ble scenarios of future worldwide mili- ian employ ment. The actual sak ings and tary speeding illustrate the effect on employ ment effects depend strongly on military-related employment over 25 the specifics of future disarmament years. (Sec Figure 9-2.) Based on an es- agreements (such as the extent to Is hich timated total of 45 million military em- treaties constrain future arms produc- ployees (29 million in the armed forces tion) and the way governments tailor and 16 milfion in arms-producing indus- their armed forces to comply sk ith any tries), the scenarios assume that spend- treaties. ing cuts translate proportionately into A few estimates hak e bP-11 made of the job losses.'5 savings possible each year from future The first two underscore that, even arms agreements. U.S. savings from a short of disarmament, employment in START treaty, for examp'e, coule be as the military industry is in jeopardy at a high as $14 billion during th,decade time of tight budgets. The first scenario ahead if currently planned modorniza- assumes that global military spending tion programs are shelv ed. (They coJd keeps pace with inflation, but that probe as low as $7 billion if these programs ductivity gains mean 3 percent fewer proceed.) Reduced warhead production workers are needed every year. The sec- and operations costs could bring in an ond assumes that spending will not com- additional $3-5 billion. The superpow- pensate for annual inflation of 5 percent. ers' conventional forces in Europe will The last two scenarios assume spending probably be trimmed during the nine- cuts on top of inflation: under one, ties: a 50-percent cut could translate into phased-in cuts increase from 2 to 10 pel- U.S. savings of $15 billion and Soviet cent: under the other, with immediate savings on the order of $30 billion. Re- spending cuts of 10 percent, the fall in moving all U.S. ground and air forces employment would be rapid. Over 25 from Europe would save an estimated years, between 9 million and 44 million $34 billion. A naval agreement reducing jobs would be lost. forces across the board by 20 percent These scenarios, of course, only give a could yield U.S. savings of $15 billion rough indication of the number of jobs and Soviet savings of perhaps $10 bil- that would have to be replaced with civil- lion. Unfortunately, little parallel work has been done yet on the possible impact Million of arms treaties on jobs.16 Jobs Once an inventory of skills and equip- 50 ment and an assessment of the economic impact of arms treaties has been under- - Productivity Scenano .---...,,.._..... taken, the conversion process proper can begin. Alternative products need to 30 be selected and developed, engineering Inflation studies on producing them with existing Scenario capabilities prepared; machinery and 20 production layouts refashioned where Immediate Phased needed, and local and regional market- 10Disarmament Disarmament ing studies done to see which products Source. IForldwatch arc in sufficient demand.

i i f I These tasks are best tackled in a de- 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 centralized mannerby those most fa- Figure 9-2. Job Losses Under Four miliar with local opportunities and ob- Disannam at Scenarios, 1990-2015 stacles.Alternativeusecommittees,

1 7 4 (.16o) State of tlu, Woild 1990 composed of representatis es fi om man- pros ed so unrehable and required such agement and workers ofmilitary firm, costlyrepairs and modifications that would be entrusted ss ith preparing a most were taken out of sen ice after only conversion "blueprint," a plan to be im- a fess years. Similar problems has e been plemented once disarmament begins encountei ed by the Rohr Corporation and military contracts are terminated. and Westinghouse Military Electronics, Because it usually takes about two y ears ss hich manufactured trains and elec- to consider properly the alternative em- tronic control sy stems for San Fran- ployment of people, equipment, and cisco's Bay Area Rapid Transit system, buildings, advance planning is crucial to and by Grumman Corporation, which the success of any such undertaking.17 produced motor buses for New York The deeply ingrained work habits of City." military-industry employees pose a spe- No matter how %sell planned, conver- cial challenge. Production and clerical sion is unlikely to be entirely smooth. workers can be eelatively easily trans- Some facilities (including ammunitions ferred to civilian employment, but re- factories and missile-propulsion plants) training is crucial for scientists, engi- are not readily convertible because there neers, and managers. Successful are no apparent civilian uses for them. conversion requires a reorientation in And parts of the complex that designs, management practices, which now are produces, assembles, and tests nuclear geared to the demands of a single cus- warheads may simply be toocon- tomer and which regard cost considera- taminated for alternative uses. These tions as secondary. Militai y industry en- employees will need to find new jobs al- gineerstendtobeoverspecialized, together. A specialconversion fund accustomed to choosing unusually costly could finance retraining programs and materials and to product specifications worker and performance requirements of a andcommunityadjustment plans during a transition phase.21 complexity unnecessary and unacceptable in the civilian sphere.18 The reconversion in many countries after World War II was relatively painless because most factories had previously producedciviliangoods.But BUILDING A CONVERSION today's military industries are largely COALITION unaccustomed to the nonmilitary market. Decades of sei s mg military needs Although the political obstacles to con- has e let them, in the judgement of Se) - version are formidable, a coalition for mour Mehnan, chair of the National buildingapeaceful economy could Commission for Economic Cons ersion change the equation. Cons ersion can be and Disannament, des clop a "trained in- an instrument of social transformation capacityfoi civilian production.19 and economic renewal, a theme around The experience of Boeing Vertol, a hich \ arious social change MON ements military contracting firm in Philadelphia, might coalesce. Dumas and Gordon illustrates the problems of attempts to point out that "the moment one ads o- entei cis ihaa markets ss nhout proper re- cates cons ersion, one must ask: 'Cons er- training. Trolley cars manufactured for sion to V. hat?' This inn:ates a crucial dis- the Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority cussion about ss hat should be produced, failed to meet such crucial cis ilian design Nk hat goods and sei s icesii e needed, criteria as simplicity and durability. They ss hat technologies should be used in ; A Conveitmg to a Peaceful Economy (161) production of these goods, who should mands for industrial democracy, per- decide what to produce and be involved ceb ing conNersion asa concept that in planning, production, and distribu- could very well be applied to civilianin- tion. Such steps help to empower people dustries in uphem al.Alternative use who have been taught that theyare inca- planning offers a chance toexamine the pable of planning for their own future, direction of technological de% elopment, and lead to their direct involvementin the scale and capital intensity of produc- the activities and decision-making pro- tiontechnologies,andoccupational cesses that govern their lives."22 health and safety.24 Economic conversion is at the center of a number of acute concerns. By freeing up resources and providinga planning mechanism for their alternative Economic conversion is very much use, conversion is an essential compo- concerned with thekindof civilian nent of any attempt to reverse industrial economy to emerge. decay and ievitalize the civilian economy. But a conversion strategy must en- compass more than just a shift away from By releasing rescurccs now aborbed all things military. An indiscriminateap- by the military, conversion can make an proach may simply worsen existing civil- important contribution to the social and ian overcapacities and deepen structural economic regeneration of urbanareas, unemployment problems. The severely particularlybenefitingdisadvantaged contracted civilian shipbuilding indus- inner-cityresidents.IntheUnited try, for example, is most unlikely to offer States, the ability of cities to address a viable alternative to producing war- mounting social problems suffereda tre- ships and attack submarines. mendous decline in the eightiesas fed- Furthermore, economic conversion is eral grant programs were cut sharply. A very much concerned with the kind of recent study for the U.S. Conference of civilian c^cmomy to emerge. Indeed, for Mayors examined the effects of transfer- most conversion advocates the goal is ring $30 bilhon annually over fiveyears the production of socially useful goods from the military to key urban programs, to satisfy unmet individual and collective including housing, mass transit, educa- needs in transportation, housing, health, tion, health, and community services. energy, environmental protection, com- Such a transfer %% ould not only gne these munications, and education. This im- areas a tremendous boost, it would in- plies a more differentiated approach crease the gross national product (GNP), than the open-ended pursuit of eco- personal disposable income, fixedpn- nomic growth.23 vate investment, and number ofjobs cre- Achieving more workplace democracy ated.25 is an important motivation for unionsto In an age of profound ecologicalci get involved in conversion initiatives. sis, the question 'conversion to what?' Plant-based alternative use committees cannot avoid addressing the neglected would greatly augment worker invohe- relationship bem een economy and ecol- ment in decisions on investment and ogy. Producing moi e cars instead of production, plant closings, automation, tanks, foi example, %%mild simplyexacer- and layoffs. Several major trade unions batc the environmental a Isis. Theenvi- inWestern Europe and the United ronnwntal movement could considera- States have explicitly linked conversion blystrengthenthealternativeuse planning proposals with ambitious de- concept by de l. eloping guidelines for

$ A a b (162) State of the 1990 cony ersion to a more sustainable eco- pieNkoi k in automotiy e sales and sen ic- noiMc system founded on eny ironmen- ing. Altogether, this sector makes up tally sound products and production approximately 5 percent of total US. technologies. employment, but that share iseasily The eny ironmental community needs, doubled if the secondary industries are in turn, its own corn ersion polky. Con- included.MONing toward an ecologically ersion could i elease desperately sustainable society need not entail se- needed funds to clean up the planet. x ere economic penalties if current em- More important, the features embedded ployment is replaced yy ith jobs in manu- inthe conversion concept can help facturing, operating, and sen icing mass smooth the transition to a sustainable transit systems.26 society by addressing misunderstand- Unfortunately, ,little work has bcen ings about tension between the goals of done to assess eithei the impact of such full employment and a healthy em iron- fundamental economic shifts oi the po- ment. tential of "environmental" work oppor- An ecologically inspired restructuring tunities. Currently, most enyironmental of the economy would Inv oh e moung proteetion expenditin esand thus the away from activities that contribute most jobs created--go to mitigate or repair to global warming, ozone depletion, and ecological damage. Pollution control oth -r threats to human health and the generates an estimated 1.4 million jobs eny ironrnent. A sustainable economy rein the United States and some 1.25 mil- lies more on renewable energy, empha- lion in the European Community. There sizes conser% anon and efficiency , mini- is added potential for alternative em- mizes waste and hazardous materials ployment, however, if the focus shifts generation, maximizes recycling, and is from "tail-pipe" technologies and reme- generallyoriented toward qualitatiy e dial actions to de eloping new, en iron- economic dey elopment. (See Chapter mentally more benign products andin- 10.) Oil and coal producers, auto manu- dustrialprocesses. A key variableis facturers, and branches of the chemical capital-intensity the number of jobs inch. in (such as the plastic packaging generated by each dollar spent. A sus- industry)wouldunquestionablybe tainable society mustNkrestle with this among those most affected by such a difficult question if it is to provide suffi- transformation. The environmental cient employment.27 MON ement has by and large gn en insuf- The promise of building a broad coali- ficient attention to the economic impli- tion around the cons ersion issueis cations of sustainability for theseNkork- matched by the difficulty of making it a ers. reality. Conversion campaigns span a 1 he caiindustry, for instance, has broad spectrum of efforts, ranging from long formed a cornerstone of economic specific local or regional issues to the de\ elopmentinindustrialcountnes. need for national legislation, from advo- Shifting to transportation that contrib- cates of rsion as a tool for social utes less to urban smog, acid rain, and chamto those favoring narrower ap- global warmingNkould mean relying ! proaches. Accordingly, they are often on automobiles, affecting a large num- initiated by quite diverse groups with ber of jobs. In the United States, the different, sometimes conflicting motiva- roughly 750,000 NNoi kers in the motor tions,philosophies,strategies,and vehicle industry are matched by an equal goals. number in road construction and main- On occasion, this leads to friction. For tenance. And more than 3 million peo- example, the preoccupation of large seg- Convertmg to a Peaceful Economy ( 163 )

ments of the peace movemem with the zations,- behind agriculture, mdusuv, moral dimensions of arms production and science and technology.28 leading to demands for the closure of Chinese armed forces have beenre- military factories, not conversionhas duced since 1981 by about 1.2 million, alienated parts of the labor movement. or almost one third, although it is un- Plant-based convers;on initiatives,on clear just how much advance planning the other hand, are sometimes narrowly has been done to keep economic disloca- concerned with job security whilees- tion to a minimum. After accounting for chewing broader social goals. Theseare inflation, military spending has been cut often ad hoc campaigns, springing to life by one sixth since 1979. Because the in response to the threat of layoffs, and economy has at the same ume grown sometimes ending abruptly whena new quite remarkably, the military budget military contract is signed. Frequently, now absorbs oniy about 4 percent of conversion is an option of last resort, GNP, down from an ay erage of 13per- considered only once the fight to cling to cent during the seventies.29 military production has been lost. By the late seventies, China faceda Weaving the fabric of a broad conver- grow ing surplus of military production sion coalition remains a challenging capacity. Resources deyoted to a bloated task. But the threads are graduallycoin- but increasingh obsolete military sector ing together. The conversion debate drained the ciYilian economy, which suf- reached a new threshold as the military fered from a marked meduction in invest- expansion of the eighties ended andas ment. While military factories were un- the needs of social and economic revi- derutilized, the government was talization and ern ironmental restoration hard-pressed to satisfy people's grow ing became ever more imperative. thirst for consumer goods. So the share of military factories' output devoted to the civilian market was doubled between 1978 and 1983. By 1986, that sharewas at least 38 percent and possibly as high THE PATH FORGED BY as 50. China's military industry now manufactures nearly 400 differentcon- CHINA AND THE SOVIET sumer items, from bicycles and cars to UNION television sets and washing machines." Although China's undertaking pro- Since the end of World War II, little sys- ides an interesting experiment, it does tematic experience of planned cony er- have its draw backs. Rather han straight sion has been gained. Only onemajor cons ersion away from military produc- powerthePeople's Republic of tion, the aim has been dual-use capacity, Chinahas undertakenalarge-scale with factories able to churn outwar demobilization and conversion effort. materiel when needed. Managers have Beijing's decision to rein in military been gi en greater responsibilityfor spending and streamline theat med their opel ations, but little suggestsany forces reflects both an evolution in secu- worker and community pat turpatton of rity thinking, in particular the improYed significance in this endeal, or. Instead, state of Sino-Soviet relations, and the China's cons ersion effort appears to be fact that the economic dimensions ofse- a centrally cited, top-down one that curity are being taken more seriously. could be reversed again if the leaders' The military sector has been assigned pi ioritiesshift.Itistoo cal lyto tell the lowest priority of the "four moderni- yy hether this will in fact o« tii in the wake 1 )44 A (164) Stale of Ole IN Id 1990 of the Niolent crackdow E, on the pde- So; ie, c on% ei mon pm ovi am, w ith some mocracy movement.31 206 factoriesslatedior changeover. Military factories ha:elSO pui sued a ONerall arms production is to be slashed se«md, quite lucrati: e Adeline business by one fifth and tank production (nen that may actually derail China'omer- moreby 40 percent by the end of 1990. sion. Dramatically increased d Tis ex- Military spending, frozen in 1987-88, is ports account for an estimated 10 pet - to be cut by 15 i,e; cent or 10 billion ru- centofmilit:tryproduction and(' bles ($15.6 in 1990-91. Clv q- percent of the country's total exports. neling these sa: mnginto ci ihan areas froit an average of 2 percent in the SO, could w ork wcriders: it would allow a enties, China has recently increased its 30-pere_lit increase in housing construc- shme ot tre ;1ob.il arms e:-oort maiket tion or, if in: c sted in en: ironmental pro- to about 4 percent.32 tection, increase current outlays more than fr:efold. Over the next six years, grime Minister Ry-zhkov is hoping to Gorbachev'sannouncementnf tnin defense expenditures further, by a major unilateral troop and Unk third t:, half. Yet most of the expected savinbs would go toward balancing the cuts in December 1988 further Soviet budget.34 nourishes he need for conversion. As .n China, the Soviet Union is now trying to increase t;te share of civilian goods produced by military plants The Soviet Union, too, is beginning to from 40 percent currently to 50 percent tackle conveision in an effort to lighten in 1991 and around (10 percent by 1995. the military burden on its economy and heir experience to date in this has not to ha:e Piesident Gorbache: 's new for- alway, gone smoothly. earlier attempt3 eign and military policies y ield some to cornert some j' facilities turned economic dividends. The Intermediate- out %.ashing machines that cost tw ice as Range Nuclear Forces(INF) Treaty much as ones of the same &sign pro- signed w ith the United States brought a duced under a cnilian ministr; .Still, net sa:ings of 300 million rubles ($468 nearly half the planned new equipment million,at mid-October 1989 official deliveries to the food industry under the rate). This is small, but enough to build estment plan for 19884)5 are to be 30,000-40,000 apartments, for example, pro: ided by defense industryenter- thus alle:iating an acute housing short- prises. The military has also been di- age. Three factories that used to pro- rected to produce 7-8 billion rubles duce missiles now proscribed by the INF ($10.9-12.5 billion) w onh of goods for accord have shifted at least part of their light industry, as well as to increase out- capaciiy to w ashing machines and bicy put of construction materials, medical cies, and seNeral missile design laborato- equipment, and plumbing supplies.35 ries ha:e been reoriented toward ckilian Resistance to conversion among mili- ..;ork. In addition, in a Nenture with a tary industry managers, who fear a loss U.S. company, the SS-20 missile factory of pri: ilege and power, continues to be will be cornerted to production of com- an obstacle. In an effort to increase the mercial satellite-launching rockets. Pres- incentketoproduce morecivilian ident Gorbachev's announcement of goods, the Council of Ministers decreed major unilateral troop and tank cuts in in September 1988 that defense facto- Decembei 1988 further nourishes the ries could retain pi ofits from above-p'an need for conversion.33 production of consumer goods during The stage is now set for an ambitious 1989 and 1990.36 1r:9 Converting to a Peactful Economy (165) Previous Soviet conversion attempts growing. The discussions ale propelled also proved relatively unsuccessful be- by a host of factm s, among them thenew cause the Kremlin was much less willing East-West detente, the imminent threat then to pare back military demands on of layoffs in the arms industries, the ethi- economic resources. Although current cal implications of arms exports, the conversion plans are directed from the needtorevitalizestagnantciv ilian top, therr is a growing public discussion economies, and the grow ing desire foi and appi eciation of the concept, and So- sociallyusefulandenvironmentally viet conversion scholars are seeking,o sound production. share insights with their counterparts Conversion is gaining new Fele%ance abroad. To go beyond ad hoc conver- as the United States adjusts to the priori- sion, the government has begun toorga- ties of a postcold war world. Thesigns nize special working groups within the for the U.S. military industryare unmis- State Planning Commission and various takable: as defense spending has begun military-related ministries to designa to decline in real terms, some 54,000 proper program. One particular obsta- jobs have either been lost in the lastcou- cle isthat even government agencies ple of years or are currently imperiled. have little relevant data on handan Congressional approval to shut down ironicshortcomingin a centrally some 86 obsolete military bases by 1995 planned economy.37 will eliminate another 21,000 jobs. Re- The Chinese example, and probably cent Defense Department proposals to soon the Soviet one too, demonstrates cut spending, if implemented, will un- that conversion can succeed, even ina doubtedly translate into even greater job worid that has barely begun to consider loss. And if major arms control and dis- alternatives to the arms race seriously. armament treaties are concluded, as now But these two nations cannot be consid- seems a strong possibility, layoffs will hit ered models for the West. Even though the military industry like an avalanche.38 they are becoming less centralized and Opponents of conversion legislation more democratic, their economiesin- argue that no new effort is needed be- deed their societiesremain of a very cause an Office of Economic Adjustmen' different nature. For one, no private (0EA) has existed in the Departmenta contractors trying to make a profit stand Defense since 1961. Created to deal witti in the way of conversion. A stronggov- the economic effects of military base clo- ernment role virtually assures that con- sures, the 0EA has no mandate to look version will be implemented once lead- at military factory shutdowns. Moreover, ers are committed. By the same token, it has reacted to closureson a case-by- however, the lack of public accountabil- case basis rather than engaging in thc ity provides little guarantee that comprehensive advance planning any reeded to deal with the economic change of coursc will be maintained. consequences of disarmament. In fact, it op- poses genuine conversionplanning. Rather than weaning communities fi0n1 dependence on military spending during the eighties the OEA actuallyen- GRASSROOTS INITIATIVES IN couraged them io seek Pentagonpro- THE WEST curement dollars.39 Conversion and diversification legisla- No western government has so fares- tion has either passed or is pending in poused an active conversion policy, bw Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, grassroots interest inthe conceptis Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, 180 (166) Stale of The Woild 1990 Pennsylvania, and Washington. In re- local «my et sion efforts, but it has also cent years,citycouncils and county approached the issue from a different supervisors have also become actis ely antage point: it seeks to organize and involved in the cons ersion issue. Re- oealize the discontent of people, mostly gional and local studies on the economic in the innei city ,ho fell s ictim to social impact of military spending has e been program cuts that went hand in hand prepared by official and pris ate cons er- with the military buildup of the eighties. sion task forces.4° The campaign's major tool has been the For the popular conversion ITIONC- use of local referenda in some 86 cities ment, the Center for Economic Cons er- and tow ns (a number of w hich have been sion in C .lifornia's Silicon Valley serves won) calling for an assessment of the as a cleat inghouse for U.S. initiatives military 's impact on the kcal economy and offers organizing assistance to local and for a transfer of funds to housing, campaigns. In Washington, D.C., the health,education,andotherst dal NationaiCommissionforEconomic needs.43 Conversicn and Disarmament (a pris ate The w estern nation w ith the second advocacy group with members of Con- largest share of resources des oted to the gress, local eLeted officials, trade union miliu-ry sector is the United Kingdom. leaders, and economists) was set up in Since the mid-eighties, U.K. military 1988 to broaden understanding of polit- spending has been in decline, setting off ical and economic alternatis es to the a "contraction in the British defense in- arms race and to urge passage of com- dustry on a scale unknow n since the end prehensive national conversion legisla- of the Secon World War," according to tion.'" John LoverinE, of' the lIniversity of Bris- tol. The squeeze on jobs is likely to in- tensify as the government moves ahead Conversionisgainingsupport with costly nuclear programs that repre- among unions because the hand- sent a large and growing share of its military, budget but that provide relatively writing is on the wall: employment few jobs." in arms industries is set to decline. The crisis of employment in the Brit- ish defense industry has rekindled a debate first sparked by the Lucas Aero- During the eighties, U.S. labor unions space campaign w ell Os er a decade ago. became increasingly active in the con- r ced with a wave of lay offs in the mid- version debate, reawakening an interest es enties, shop stew ards at this major from the late sixties and early ses enties. British mihtary contractor formulated a In particular, the International Associa- detailed plan invoking 150 goods that tion of Machinists Las a long record of could v,2 produced with existing skills active support for the concept. Cons er- and resoui ees, such as medical equip- sion is gaining support among unions ment, alternative energy technologies. because the handwriting is on the w all: and remote control equipment for the employment in arms industries is set to handicapped. Although management ul- decline, perhaps drastically . And cons er- timately rej-cted the plan, the publicity sion is now being discussed in the con- helped prevent most of the planned lay- text of civilian layoffs and plant clos- offs. Mnre impoi tant. the Lucas cam- ings. 42 paign was a tremendous inspiration for The Jobs WithPeacecampaign, many others in Britain and elsewhere.43 founded in 1931, has been involved in The drawn-out controversy at Lucas

F.? Converting to a Peaceful Economy (167) Aerospace raised awareness and stimu- municipalities' struggles to formulate lated a reassessment of conversion-re- local strategies for economk develop- lated issues within unions and the La- ment, although these initiatives face an bour Party. In 1983, the Trade and uphill struggle, as the financial and legal General Workers' Union (the largest sin- poyy ers or municipal governments were gle union) committed itself tosupport- severely limited during the eighties. In ing conversionplanning,itswidely 1985, an Arms Conversion Groupwas quoted ABetter Future for Defeme Jobspro- established at the School of Peace Stud- posed loci alternative use committees ies at Bradford University toserve as a and a national conversion fund. Similar clearinghouse. And a number of small, proposals were made by the civilser- inclependcutagenciesincludingthe vants union. And the Trades Union Con- Centre for Alternative Industrial and gress, the umbrella group for British Technological Systems at the Polytech- unions, called for a large-scale public in- nic of North London and the Network of vestment program to create a market for ProductDevelopmentAgenciesin alternative products." Sheffieldoffer practical assistanceto In September 1984, a National Trades local campaigns.49 Union Defence Conversion Committee For West Germany, adjtn.ting the ar- was set up. Meanwhile, committees in- maments industryto nonmilitary use volving a number of unions havesprung should be easier than in the United up at the regional level, most promi- States or the United Kingdom, fora nently in the northeast. The Labour number of reasons. First, the country Party National Executive Committee for- deNotes a considerably smaller share of mally declared its support forconver- financial and scientific resources to de- sion in 1986. And in a 1987 report La- fense. Second, its vibrant civilianecon- bour promised, if elected, to createa omy pro .des ample opportunities for National Agency for Industrial Conver- alternative use of resources. And finally, sion and Recovery within the Depart- the military industry is less specialized, ment of Trade and Industry to adminis- and thus more integrated inthe over- ter a conversion fund, though they failed all economy, than its U.S. or British to be specific on how the program would counterparts are. For many 'Nest Ger- work.47 man companies involved in the military According to Lovering, this "upswell sector, arms sales are less significant of interest in conversion was ofa 'top- than they are for similar firms in other (' ,wn' nature, anditfailedto feed countries.50 through to substantial local activity." La- Still, the mill,ary industry faces tre- bour's defeat in the 1987 general elec- mendous overcapacities as the boom of tions quelled hopes for a more construc- the seNentieswhen contracts doubled tive government stance toward in valuehas given way to stagnation. conversion. Instead, confrontingan in- Overcapacities are estimated at 30 per- tensifying employment crisis in military cent in both the aerospace industry and industry, new local, workplace-based the shipyards, and at 50 percent in tank campaigns such as those in Barrow, production. (By contrast, the electronics Llangenerch, andBristolbeganto industry expects continued growth inor- emerge. (See Table 9-2)45 ders.) To escape the unpleasant di- Meanwhile, an institutional structure lemma of either lobbying for additional for a conversion network is beginningto domestic and foreign military contracts emerge inBritain.Conversion cam- or suffering possibly lprge.scale layoffs, paigns found supportin many alternative use workinggroucs have

1 2 (168) State of the Maid 1990 Table 9-2. United Kingdom: Recent Conversion Initiatives

Initiative, Location, and Year Started Events and Reports V ckets Shiptard. Barrot% Alternatit e 1987 report "Oceans of Work" assesses Ertiployment Committee, 1984 alternant es to Trident submanne production in marine technolog) and renewable enet gy Barrow City Council not, Involved in diversification effolts.

Greater London Cons ersion Council, Sei les of reports on impact of defense London, 1985-86 spending on London economy; sector studies of electronics and act ()space indusu les.

Rota! Natal Stores Depot, Llangener(h, Alternant e produ( t campaign "Alto plan" to South Wales, 1986 save hundieds of jobs threatened by closure in 1990 Convei mon to newel k of small businesses proposed. Some success in diversification eft-cm ts.

Brinsii Aelospace (BAe), Btistol, 1989 Stud) of economic impact of latoffs announced for 1990 and of alternative product potential. Bristoi City Council set up a Local Defense Forum to pursue (liversification efforts.

BAe, Walton, Northttest, 1989 Tornado project. Alternative use stud) ptoposed by shop stewards. Coordination with Tornado workers in other countries.

M., Rs.L. V1 ol Id%,11(h Institute, basid unJohn IAA enng, "Arms Cons ersion into the 1990sIheBluish Esperien«.,- palm in esemed at comersion conference in Col tow, ltah, April 22.1989 sprungup in numerous militar) con- six. Half the revenues of Kid's shipyard tracting firms. By the mid-eighties, a and machine tool industries in1984 dozen existed in the northern part of the came from military contracts. In Ham- country alone. Such initiatn es became a burg, one out of four shipyard workers drn ing fol ce in corn ei sion discussions. and one tenth of those in the electronics Many of their proposals focus on the indust;-ire in% ()bed in military work. need for production that is ern It-oilmen- And in breinen, one quarter of the Ysork- tally more benign.5i ers in the electronics industry pi oduce The oldest and most established West armaments.52 German alternatne use Ysorking groups During the military industry's boom are found along the coast, Ys hich is not y ears of the early ::ey enties, employment surprising as the region has a number of rose by 50 pet cent, job maintenance and cities hem ily dependent on arms pro- alternative production were hardly top- duction. In Kiel, one in ey ery five indus- ics on the union agenda. But since the trial 1, orkcrs is employ cd in the military beginning of the eighties, the discussion industry; in Emden, the figure is one in has intensified on all le els of labor, and

1 S3 Converting to a Peaceful Economy ( 169) conversion has been officially embraced. firms depend on military orders for the Indeed, confronted v% ith continuedmass majority of their pi oducuon. and few unemployment, unions no longersee communities depend heas mly on reve- conversion as solely related to the mili- nues from military work.55 tary but seek to apply the concept to ci- In Mosul! of Disaimoment assessed the vilian sectoi s as well. Specifically,, con- effect on the Sw edish defense industry of version ;s seen as a tool to put teeth into halving military expenditures betw een West Germany's"co-determination" 1990 and 2015. Even though 20,000 sol- laws, which rule vv o -ker participationin diers would be demobilized andsome corporate decision making. In addition, 14,000 military industry jobsould be it has been linked to ongoing demands lest, less than 1 percent of the Sw edish for "humanization of work"the im- labor force would be affected. The Thor- provement of working conditions.53 sson report called for a Council for Dis- The metal workers' union (IG Metall) armament and Conversion and a na- has been the most actively involved, call- tional conversion fund to be financed by ing for alternative use committees with a 5-percent levy on arms export sales. It equal representation by labor andman- further envisioned conversion funds at agement. By 1977, it had already formed each defense facility, paid for by setting a working group on Defense Technol- aside 1 percent of the yak, of domestic ogy and Employment to advance pro- military contracts; to become eligible for posals for alternative production. The such funds, contractors would have to IG Metall has facilitated the coordina- match them with their own capita1.56 tion of various plant-based conversion initiatives, helped integrate them into the union organization, and broadened The Thorsson report envisioned the conversion discussion within :he conversion funds at each defense union movement. In particular, its Inno- facility, paid for by setting aside 1 vation and Technology Advisory Bureau percent of the value of domestic in Hamburg and the Cooperation Bu- military contracts. reau in Bremen have lent important support to workers' alternative use committees.54 These recommendations remain pro- Among western countries, p -rhaps posals. A follow-up report, with some the government most sympatheticto modifications to the original sugges- conversion has been Sweden's. It is the tions, was published in spring 1988. De- only one that responded constructively spite continued interest in the Foreign to a 1982 U.N. General Assembly sug- Ministry, among sol.lemnihitamy firms, gestion that member states do a detailed and within the trade union movement, study of their military industries. The re- the government eschews an activecon- sult was the landmark report In Pursuit of version policy. Yet even without it, the Disarmament, released in 1984. Known as case for alternative use planning remains the Thorsson report (Under-Secretary compelling. The Stockholm business of State Inga Thorsson chaired the magazine reckons Affaieireports that group that preparedthestudy),it Swedish arms manufacturcrs are strug- analyzed the size, structure, andeco- gling with plunging sales; over the next nomic impact of the Swedish military in- five years, some 4,000-5,000 jobs could dustry. It found conditions quite favor- be lost. Indeed, the prospects ol lower able to conversion: only a few Swedish defense budgets and a gradually shrink- (170) State of the 1Vor1d 1990 ing military foi ce ensure that conversion tario, Canada, and is aiting further ac- will increase in political importance." tion. And in Italy, an arms export bill The litmus test for grassroots cony er- curl ently under consideration includes sion initiatives in the West is frequently some reley ant prov isions. Pressure for seen as preventing factory shutdowns more straightforward conversion legisla- and the associated job loss, and gaining tion is mounting, as four bills have been management acceptance of alternative introduced byItalian opposition par- product proposals. Because local cam- ties.58 paigns face an uphill struggle against de- Three bills introduced in the U.S. fense departments and the management Congress address the conversion issue. of military contractors, E .2h expecta- Only one--the Defense Economic Ad- tions are unrealistic. A different yard- justment Act (H.R. 101) introduced by stick should be applied. Indeed, conver- Representative Ted Weissof New sion activists are conscious of the limits Yorkincornorates thefeaturesdis- of defining success in this way. They seek cussed in this chapter as crucial to the primarily to genera t. greater awareness success of a conversion strategy. First among both military industry employees offered in 1977, the Weiss bill is essen- and the general public and thus create a tially a refined version of the National political opening for the conversion con- Economic Cony ersion Act introduced as cept. Alternative use campaigns often earlyas 19f by Senator George (but not always) intend to dramatize the McGovern.59 needr a public policy that establishes The Weiss bill has become somewhat the conditions and fiamework for build- of a model for conversion proponents in ing a peaceful economy. other countries. It calls for a Defense Economic Adjustment Council charged, among other things, with preparing genera guidelines for conversion and dis- seminating conversion-related informa- AN ALTERNA1 IVE AGENDA tion. The bill also requires every military base, laboratory, and production facility Local conversion campaigns help raise with more than 100 employees to estab- awareness of the adverse impact of mili- lish an Alternat:te Use Committee as a taryspending.Ultimately,how ey er. prerequisite for futureeligibilityfor their success depends on the passage of militarycontracts.Management and comprehensiv e national legislation that labor would be ev enly represented, and proy ides a mandatory framework for the nonvoting representatiy es of the local transfer of resources from military to ci- community would be included. The vilian applications. committees would develop, and review Cui ently, no such legislation isin ey ery hio years, a conversion blueprint. force anywhere in the world. In China, The Weiss billfacilitatesconversion conversion has been carried out by ad- planning by requiring the Secretary of ministrative decree rather than by public Defense to provide one year's advance deliberation and legally codified mea- notice of any changes hi procurement sures. T.egislative proposals have been contracts that lead to 1tryoffs.69 made in a number of countries, howey er. To smooth adjustment, occupational I the Netherlards, a parliamentary ef- retraining of military industry employ- fort in 1983 failed in the end due to lack ees would be required. Workers dis- of government enthusiasm. Conversion placed as a result o:' defense cutbacks legislation has been introduced in On- would be eligible for temporary income

;c, )0 Converting to a Peaceful Economy (171) maintenance and relocation alloy% ances. reforestation, strengthen public trans- A national employment nc t,. ork tv ould portation, proy ide affordable housing be created to help them findnet% jobs. and prey entiv e health care, and improve The legislation also specifies thatcom- educational services. munities "substantially or seriously affected" by reduced defense spending "shall be eligible for Federal assistance The Weiss bill has become some- for planning for economic adjustment to avoid substantial dislocations."61 what of a model for conversion An"economicadjustmentfund" proponents in other countries. would be created to finance thesepi o- grams, funded by 10 percent of any projected savings in militaiy spending. In In the United States, the Weiss bill ad- addition, the Weiss bill would make the dresses this need.It encourages the receipt of defense contracts contingent "preparation of concrete plans for.. . upon a contractor's payment into the public projects addressing vital areas of fund of an amount equal to 1.25 percent national concern (such as transporta- per year of the company's gross rev enue tion, housing, education, health care, on its military sales.62 environmental protection, and renew- The success of any conversionpro- able energy resources) by the various ci- gram hinges on broader economic con- vilian agencies of the Government, as ditions. Iis unlikely under the laissez- wellas by State and localgovern- faire approach to macroeconomic policy ments."63 that dominated in many wcsterncoun- Too centralized an approach is objec- tries during the eighties, especially if tionable not only bccause of the - conversion is to be geared towardso- ent danger of bureaucratization, but also cially useful and environmentally sound because a decentralized effort is much productionandconsumption.This more sensitivetothe strengths and prompts a question about the proper weaknesses of individual regions and role of public policy: To what degree communities. Enormous regional and should government interfere in themar- local imbalances are created or exacer- ket toring about the rather fundamen- bated by military spending priorities, for tal redirection of priorities needed? example. To be effective, a conversion The answer, of course, varies from policy needs to be tailored to the specific country to country. But the most effec- needs of individual regions and to invest tive approach might be for public policy local governments with sufficient au- to create the overall framework and pro- thority in the entire endeavor. vide the incentives that would stimulate International coordination neverthe- demand for socially useful products for less has a role to play. The United Na- which there is no, or little, effectivemar- tions could become a forum where each ket demand. The centerpiece of sucha nation's experiences with alternative use policy would be an alternati,e research projects are made available. On the and capital investment agenda to create grassrootslevel, meanwhile, contacts at least initial market demand. The pro- among activists are growing. At Swe- gram might include measures to support den's Uppsala University, a Center for the development of nonpolluting,ap- Military Conversion is being setup to propriate-scaleproductiontechnolo- collect and distribute information on gies, enhance renewable sources ofen- European activities 4nd to establish an ergy, boostenergyefficiencyand international conversion network.64

1 r;6 (172 ) State of the Woild 1990 The lack of an acuye goYerninent con- vides hope that an ecologically inspired 1, ersion program in the West would seem alternatiy e use strategy w ill get a more to indicate that this concept has little serious hearing. hope of being translated into reality. At The gathering pressure for disarma- the moment, what prospects there are ment suggests strong!) that convel sion for such a policy appear brighter in will be a topic of growirg importance Europe than in the United States. Na- during the nineties. As the debNe about tions there have a stronger tradition of the essence of security is broadened to public intervention in economic policy, embrace economicNitality,,social justice, and the hbor movement is more influ- and ec togical stability, there is a grow- ential. A realignment in the political ge- ing de.,tre for ways to redirect resources ographyas appears in the making now to these areas of neglect. The challenge in much of Western Europe, where is to channel this desire into concrete Green movements are on the risepro- action. 10 Picturinga Sustainable Society Lester R. Brown,Christopher Flcvin, and Sandra rostel

ocieties everywhere are slo%dy coming what picture of the future can we use to to recognize that they are not only de- guide )ur actions toward a global com- stroying thcir environments but under- munithat can endure? mining their futures. Inresponse, gov- That,inessence,isthe challenge ernments, development agencies, and taken up in this chapterto draw the people the world over have begun totry outlines of a sustainable society, to de- to reverse obviously threatening trends. scribe wl- atit would look like, how it So far, this has resulted in a flurry of would function. It can. of course, only be fragmented activitya new pollution a thumbnail sketch. Ideas and technolo- law here, a larger environment staff gies yet unknown will fill in many of the therethat lacks any coherentsense of gaps. But just as any technology of flight, what, ultimately, we wish to achieve. however primitive or advanced, must Building a more environmentallysta- abide by the basic principles of aerody- ble future clearly requires some vision of namics, so must a lasting society satisfy it. If not fossil fuels to power society, some immutable criteria.Withthat then what? If forests are no longer to be understanding and from accumulated cleared to grow food, then how isa experience to date, it is possible to cre- larger population to be fed? If a throwa- ate a vision of a society quite differ :nt, way culture ie.& inevitably to pollution indeed preferable to today's. and resource depletion, how canwe sat- A sustainable iety is one that satis- isfy our material needs? In sum, if the fies its needs s...out jeopardizing the present path is so obviously unsound. prospects of future generations. Inher-

A ' ) 0 (174) State of the tro,ld 1990 ent in this definition is the iesponsibility tal nnpacts of majoi proposed goy (Ali- of each generation to ensure that the ment actions be assessed. But this, too, next one inherits an undiminished natu- is a defensi e app oach, one that at- ral and CCUI/0/»/C endowment. This con- tempts only to a eft unwanted effe ts cept of Intel generatiunal equity, o- rather than w orkmg positkely and con- found!) moral in tharacter, isiolated in sistently tow ar4 a sustainable economy. numerous ways by our current society .1 In taking on the task of sketching an Indeed, there are no existing models environmentally stable society , we have of sustainability. For the past se% ei al made sey eral important assumptions. decades, most dentloping nations haY e The first is that if the world is to achieve aspired to the automobile-centered, fos- sustainability,it will need to do so w ithin sil-fuel-driy en economies of the indus- the next 40 years. If we haw not suc- trial West. But from the localized prob- ceeded by then, enyironmental deterio- lems of intractable air pollution to the ration and economic decline are likely to global threat of climate change, it is now, be feeding on each other, pulling us into clear that these societies are far from du- a downward spiral of social disintegra- rable; indeed they al e rapidly bringing tion. Our yision of the future therefore about their own demise. looks to the year 2030 Effortsto understand sustainability Second, new technologieswillof often focus on what it is not. ObYiously , course be developed. Forty years ago, an economy that is rapidly changing the for example, some renew Able energy climate on which its food-producing ca- technologies now on the market did not pability depends is not sustainable. Nei- e% en exist. Undei the pressure of finding ther is one that mercuts the forests that a means to slow global warming, re- proyide its fuel and umber. But this neg- searchers are likely to de% clop a ranee of any e definition leads to a strictly ream% e new energy technologies, some of which posture, one that has us constantly try- may be difficult to imagine at the mo- ing to repair the consequences of our ment. In the interest of being conserva- destructive behavior. tive, however, the future we sketch here is based only on existing technologies and foreseeable impi.oyements in them. The world economy of 2030 will Our third assumption is that the woild not be powered by coal, oil, and economy of 2030 will not be powered by coal, oil, and natural gas. It is now well natural gas. accepted that continuiag heavy reliance on fossil fuels will cause catastrophic changes in climate. The most recent The World Bank, for example, now scientific evidence suggests that stabiliz- tries piecemeal to assess the en% iron- ing the climate depends on eyentually mental side effects of projects it is con- cutting annual global carbon emissions sidering funding. Not one of its member to some 2 billion tons per year, about countries, however, has a coherent plan one third the current le% el. Taking pop- of action aimed at achieYing sustainabil- ulation grow th into account, the world in ity, which logically should proYide the 2030 will therefore haw per capita car- basis for deciding what investments are bon emissions that 4e one eighth the needed in the first place. The United level in Western Europe today.2 States has follow cr1 a similar tack for the The choice then becomes whether to last 20 years. Itsitional Enyironmental make solar or nuclear powet the center- Policy Act requires that the env ironmen- piece -if energy systems. We belie% e so- 1 - Picturing a Sustainable Society (175) cieties will reject nuclear power because growth rates in half in a matter of ears. of its long list of economic, social, and As of 1990, 13 European countries have environmentalliabilities. Though fa- stable or declining populations, by 2030, vored by many political leaders during most countries are likely to be in that the sixties and seventies, the nuclear in- category. For the world as a whole, dustry has been in decline for overa human numbers will total well below 9 decade. Only 94 plants remain under billion. We assume a population of at construction, and most will becom- most 8 billion that will either be essen- pleted in the next few years. Meanwhile, tially stable or declining slowlytoward worldwide orders for new plants have a number the earth can support comfort- slowed to a trickle. The accidents at ably and indefinitely.6 Three Mile Island and Chernobyl and The last assumption we make is that the failure to develop a safe way to store the world in 2030 will have achieved a nuclear waste permanently have turned more equitable and secure economy. governments and citizensalike at-ay Unless Third World debt can be reduced from nuclear power.3 to the point where the net flow of capital It is of course possible that scientists from industrial to developing countries could develop new nuclear technologies is restored, the resources and incentives that are more economical and less acci- to invest in sustainability will simply be dent-prone. Yet this would not solve the inadequate. In the finalsection, we waste problem. Nor would it alleviate briefly discuss issues related to jobs, eco- growing concern about the use ofnu- nomic growth, and socialpriorities, clear energy as a stepping stone to devel- recognizing that major change, in ,:rher oping nuclear weapons. Trying to pre- areas will be needed as well. vent this in a plutonium-based economy In the end, individual values are what withthousandsof operatingplants drive social change. Progress toward would require a degree of control that is sustainability thus hinges on a collective probably incompatible with democratic deepening of our sense of responsibility political systems. Societies are likely to to the earth and to future generations. opt instead for diverse, solar-based sys- Without a re-evaluation of our personal tems.4 aspirations and motivations, we will The fourth major assumption is about never achieve an environmentally sound population size. Current U.N. projec- global community. tions have the world headed for nearly 9 billion people by 2030. This figure implies a doubling or tripling of the populations of Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, and scores of other countries where human numbers are already overtaxing natural POWERED BY THE SUN support systems. Either these societies Duringtheseventiesandeighties, will move quickly to encourage smaller polic) makers assumed that changes in families and bring birth rates down,or the world energy system would be rising death rates from hunger and mal- driven by depletion of the world's fossil nutrition will check population growth.5 fuel resources: as t,e gradually ran out of The humane path to sultainability by oil, coal, and natural gas, we would be the year 2030 thcrefore requires a dra- forced to develop alternatives. Such a matic drop in birth rates. More countries transition would have been comfortably will do as China has done, and as Thai- gradual, extending over more than a landisdoing:cuttheir population century. Rut now the world faces a new

D 0 (176) State of the nr/d 1990 set of limits. Long before fossil fuels are newable rcsouices in the United States is exhausted, rising global temperatures 250 times the countrv 's annual use of from their use could spell an end to civi- energy.7 lization as we know it. Solar power is by nature diverse; the The world energy system in the y cal mix of energy sources will reflect the cli- 2030 is thus likely to beal little resem- mate and natural rcsources of each par- blance to today's. No longer dominated ticular region. Noi them Emope, for ex- by fossil fuels, it will be run by solar re- ample, is likely to rely heav ily on wind sources daily replenished by incoming and hydropower. The economies of sunlight and by geothermal energy. And northern Africa and the Middle East may it will be far more energy-efficient. instead use direct sunlight. Japan and In many ways, the solar age today is the Philippines will tap their abundant where the coal age was when the steam geothermalenergy.AndSoutheast engine v% as invemed in the eighteenth Asian economies will be powered largely century. At that time, coal was used to by v% ood and agricultural wastes, along heat homes and smelt iron ore, but the with sunshine. notion of using coal-fired steam engines Although some countries are likely to to power factories or transportation sys- import renewable energy,,the enormous tems wasjust emerging. Yet only a short oil-related bills that characterize in. mn time later the first railroad started run- trade relationships will dwindle. A/10 re- ning, and fossil fuels began to transform newable energy sources are to a large the world economy. extent inflation-proof: solar, wind, an.I geothermal power plants require no fuel and so are not vulnerable to fuel price Direct conversion of solar energy increases. will be the cornerstone of a sustain- Due to the abundance of sunlight, direct conversion of solar energy will be able world energy system. the cornerstone of a sustainable world energy system. Not only is sunshine available in great quantity. but it is more The late twentk-th century, then, is the widely distributed than any othei enerp dawn of the solar age. Many technolo- soul ce, renewable or fossilfuel. By gies hav e been developed that allow us 2030. solar panels will heat most resi- to hal ness the eneigy of the sun effec- dential water around the world, follow- tively, but these dev ices ale not yet in ing the model ofJapan and Israel, which widespread use, and their potential im- already use them extensn ely . A typical pact is barely imagined. When It comes urban landscape will have thousands of to solar technologies. today 's political collectorssproutingfromrooftops; leaders, still captivated by coal and nu- much as television antennas do today. clear power, are akin to the steam en- And passive solar arclutecture may by gine's eighteenth century sk.Tucs. then cut artificial heating and cooling Countering such skepticism are glim- needs to virtually zero in millions of merings of the new age. Some nations buildings.8 Norway and Brazil,for exampleal- Solar thermal powel is one means of ready obtain ov er hall then energy from harnessing sunlight.Ituses mirrored renewables. And these resouices are troughs to focus sunlight onto oil-filled available in immense quantity. The U.S. tube% !ha! C". heat to a turbine and Department of Energy estimates that the genel ator that then pi oduce electricity. annual influx of currently accessible re- An 80-megawatt solalthermal plant

91 Picturing a Sustainable Society (177) built in the desert east of Los Angelesin tIn oughout the world may bewmepro- 1989 converts an ex traordinaly 22 per- ducers as w ell as wnsumers of elec cent of the incoming sunlight into elec- it). Indeed, photovoltaic shingles have tricity. It cioes so at a cost of 80per kilo- alreads been de) eloped that allow roof- watt-houra third less than the 120per ing material itself to becomea pow er kilowatt-hour cost of power fromnew source. As costs conti'me to dechne, nuclear plants.9 many homes are apt to get much of their Forty years from now, solar thermal electricit)from photovoltmcs, and in plants may stretch across the deserts of sunny regions residents will sell any sur- the United States, North Africa, andcen- plus to the utility company for use by tral Asia. As the technology becomes others:2 widespread, these regions may become Wind power is an indirect form of large exporters of electricity. 'Hie) ma) solar energy, generated by the sun's dif- also become suppliers of hydrogen fuel, ferential heating of the earth's atmo- which can be manufactured in desert sphere. The cost of wind energy has al- solar plants and shipped by pipehneto ready fallen by about 70 percent during run automobiles instant the eighties, to 6-80 per kilowatt-hour, Photovoltaic solar cells are a smicon- making it close to competitive withnew ductor technology that converts sunlight coal-fired power plants." directly into electricity without using the Engineers are confident that they will mechanical processes involvedm solar soon nine improved wind turbmes that thermal conversion. Currently, photo- are economical not just in California's voltaic systems are less efficient and four blustery mountain passes, where some times as expensive assolar thermal wind farmers are already generating power is. But they are already used in $30,000 worth of electricity per hectare many remote locations, and the cost is annually, but in vast stretches of the U.S. likely to deJine rapidly. Systems with northern plains, the U.K. North Sea efficiencies approaching 20 percentmay Coast, and central Europe. Among the soon be available, and scientists hope to regions where major wind farms are now bring costs down to less than 100per on the drawing boards are West Ger- kilowatt-hourbytheendofthis many and the state of Gujarat in India." decade." The United States could be deriving The key advantage of photovoltaics is 10-20 percent of its electi icity from the their versatility. Theycan be used not wind by 2030. Wind power is likely then only in large electricity plants butto to rival hydro as a low-cost form of en- power small water pumps and rural com- ergy, and so attract new industris into munications systems. As they become windswept regions. These businesses economical, the completion of the solar will be set up to take advantage of the revolution will be possible: all Third wind whenever it is available, suchas in World villages can be electrified with the middle of the night, when electricity thistechnology. Unlike communities demand is normally quite low.15 today, these villages will not hay e to de- The wind resources of the U.S. Great pend on extended power linescon- Plainswhich have long pumped water nected to centralized plants. Rathei, for millions of cattlemay one day be theywillcontaintheir own power used to generate vast amounts of elec- sourcesphotovoltaic electric systems tricity for sale to Denver, Kansas Cuy, with battery storage for lighting and and other major cities. On the better other uses in the dark evening hours.11 sites, income from electricit) sales could Using this technology, homeowners dwarf the $30 or so per hectare from (178) Slate of the Woild 1990 cattle gianng, tempting many cattle energy crops on marginal lands not cur- ranc hers to become wind farmers as rent!) used for food. Land that is too wel1.16 steeply slopiug or not sufficient!) fertile For h)drop mer,hich now supplies or wellatered for crops might suppor t near I) one fifth of the w 01 lds electricit), ti ees that are periodicalEhai vested. prospects for future grow th are most The w ood could then be burned direct!) promising in the Third World, where the in a wood-fired power plant or con- unde) eloped potentialisstilllarge. verted to ethanol; the Solar Energ) Re- Small-scale pi ojects are likel) to be more search Institute has alread) de) eloped a appealing than the massive projects fa- process that brings the cost of wooc:- ored b) governments and international derived ethanol down to $1.35 per gal- lending agencies in past decades. In de- lon.19 ciding which h) dropew er resources to In the United States, for example, the de)elop, emironmental issues such as 13 million hectares of marginal cropland land flooding and siltation will pla) an retired under the Consenation Resene important role. These considerations Program could be planted iu trees that will likel) keep most nations fl OIfl deel- would yield as much as 265 million bar- oping their total potential, though h) dro rels of ethanol each )ear. Equialent to willstillbeanimportantenergy 10 percent of current U.S. gasoline con- source.", sumption, this amount will be afar larger share of supplies in the energy- efficient world of 2030. Smce in any One promising approach is to grow given year most of the land would be energy crops on marginal lands not covered by trees, there would be a carbon storage benefit as well. 20 currently used for food. Biomass energy thus has a major role to play, although resource constraints must be kept in mind. The conversion Lis ing green plants pi ON ide another efficienc) of the photosynthetic pro(ess meansofcapturingsolarenergy. is a fraction of that of direct solar Through photos) nthesis, the) cons ert technologies. And there are substantial sunlightintobiomassthatcanbc pressures on biological s)stems i1m eady, burned. Until the industrial re)olution, as well as new stresses likely to be ex- oo(1 supplied most of the w orld's en- erted b) global warming. Projects will erg). Today, it still proides 12 percent hae to be car efull) chosen and properly' of the total, chiefly in the form of fire- managed. wood and charcoal in de.eloping coun- Geothermal energ) emplo) s the huge tries.18 reservoir of beat that lies beneath the The use of bioenergy will surely ex- earth's surface, making it the only re- pand during the next 40 years, but its newable source that does not rely on growth will be constrained. With marl) sunlight. Fer this reason, geothermal re- forests and croplands alread)oer- sources must be tapped slowl) enough stressed, and with food net ds pressing so as not to deplete the accessible eser- against agricultural resources, itis un- von of heat, and thus be trul) renewable. realistic to think that ethanol derived Continuing advances will allow engi- from corn or sugarcane, for instance, neer s to use previously unexploitable, can suppl) nm e than a tin) fraction of lower-temperature reseroirs that are the world's liquid fuels. hundreds of times as abuudant as those One promising approach is to grow in use today. In the future, many coun-

r-i Picturing a Sustainable Society (179) tries may find themselves s% here Kenya, being less hooked on oil. cal, and gas, Nicaragua, and thePhilippinesare and so their trawition to the solar age todaygetting much of their clectricit) will be easiei. One option is to rdy on from geothermal resources." biomass energy in current quantities but Virtually all Pacific Rim countries,as to step up replanting efforts and to burn well as those along East Africa's Great the biomass much more efficiently, using Rift and the Mediterranean Sea, are well gasifiers and other devices. Another is to endowed with geothermal energy. Ice- turn directly to the sun, which most of land, Indonesia, and Japan arcamong the Third World has in abundance the nations with the greatest potential. solar os ens for cooking, solar collectois Geothermal energy can provide not only for hot water, and photovoltaics for elec- electricity that is transmitted long dis- tricity. tances, but also direct heat for industries In both industrial and developing na- that locate near accessible heat reser- tions, enel gy production inevitably will voirs.22 be much more decentralized. breaking Land use will inevitably be shaped by up the huge industries that have been a the development of economic systems dominant part of the economic scene in based on renewable energy. Solar tech- the late twentieth century. Indeed,a nologies arc land-intensive, but no more world energy system based on the highly so than thosc based on fossil fuels. In efficient use of reneuable resources is fact, if all the land devoted to mining liable to be not only more decentralized coal is included, many solar technologies but also less vulnerable to disruption actuallyrequirelessarea than coal and more conducive to market princi- power does.23 ples and democratic political systems. /n A 1,000-mcgawatt solar thermal facil ecological terms, itis the only kind of ity, for example, would require 24 world likely to endure for more thana square kilometers of land. Meeting all few decades. U.S. ,:lectricity needs with this technology would thus require about 29,000 square kilometers, an arca one tenth the size of Arizona. Although wind farms that produce an equivalent amount of poucr would cover a wider area, they EFFICIENT IN ALL SENSES would not really occupy the land in the Getting total global carbon emissions same way; indeed, cattle-grazing and dos% n to 2 billion tons a year requires other activities could go on as before. vast impros ements in energy efficiency. Moreover, solar.ind, and geothermal Fortunately, many of the technologies to systems will use land that may not be accomplish such reductions arc already much in demand todaywindy moun- at hand and cost-effective. No technical tain passes or stretches of' dry desert. bi cakthroughs are needed, for example, Land values; traditionally determined to double automobile fuel economy, tri- largely by agriculture, ranching, and for- ple the efficiency of lighting syste,as, or estry prospects, will be influenced by en- cut typical heating requirements by 75 ergy. production potential as wel1.2 percent. Technologies developed in the Nations now constitutingwhatis decades ahead s% ill undoubtedly allow called the Third World face the immense even greater gains."' challenge of continuing to develop their Automobiles in 2030 are apt to get at economies without massive use of fossil least 100 miles per gallon of fuel, four fuels. Yet they have an advantage in times the current average for new cars. A

I,c'4Z.' (180) State of tlu, IForld 1990 hint of sy hat suc h chides may be like is year to 750; othci models under devel- gis en in a lecently des eloped protots pc, opment sy ould bi ing that figui e dos% n to the Volvo LCP 2000. Itis an aeredy - 240 kilos% att-hours Gains nearly as great mimic four-passenger car that weighs are possible in an -con-looners, sy titer just half as imich as today's models due heaters, and clothe- oryers.28 to the use of lightvseight synthetic mate- Industrysy ill also be shaped by the rials. Moreoser, it has a highly efficient need to impros e energy efficiency.Steel- and clean-burning diesel engine. With making is likely to rely hefts on effi- the addition of a continuously s ariable cient electric arc furnaces that require transmission and a fly sy heel energy stor- half the enei gy of the open hearth ones age device, this vehicle could get 90 of today. Some energy -intensive materi- miles to the gallon.26 als, such as aluminum, may be used only Forty years from nos% , Thomas Edi- in select applications, replaced in large son's revolutionary incandescent light measure by less energy -intensiye syn- bulbs may be found only in museums thetics. Vast improsements in the design replaced by a variety of new lighting sy s- and maintenance of electric motors tcms, including halogen and sodium could by themselyes eliminate the need lights. The most important new light for hundreds of large power plants source may be compact fluorescent around the world." bulbs that, for example, use 18 watts Cogeneration (the combined produc- rather than 75 to produce the same tion of heat and power) will also spread amount of light. The new bulbs, already widely. Many factorieswillgenerate available today,not only reduce con- their own power with biomass, using the sumers' electricity bills, they last over waste heat for industrial processes as seven times as long.27 well as heating and cooling, Such sys- In 2030, homes arelikelyto be tems are in wide use in some parts of the weather-tightandhighlyinsulated, world already, and can raise total plant greatly reducing the need for both heat- efficiency from 50-70 percent to as high ing and cooling. Superinsulated homes as 90 percent. Excess power can be in the Canadian province of Saskatche- transferred to the electric grid and used wan are already so tightly built that it by other consumers.81 does not pay to install a furnace; a small Improving energy efficiency will not electric baseboard heater is more tban noticeably change life-stylesor eco- adequate. Such homes use one third as nomic systems. A highly efficient refrig- much energy as modern Swedish homes erator or light bulb provides the same do, or one tenth the U.S. average. They service as an inefficient onejust more have (louble the normal insulation and economically. Gains in energy efficiency airtight liners in the walls. Mechanical alone, however, will not reduce fossil ventilation systems keep the air fresh. fuel carbon emissions by the needed The most welcome change for residents amount. Additional steps to limit the use may be the almost complete elimination of fossil fuels are likely to reshape cities, of utility bills.28 transportation systems, and industrial Inside these homes, people will have patterns, fostering a society that is more appliances that are on average thrte to efficient in all senses. four times as efficient as those in use By the year 2030, a much more diverse today. Probably the greatest sayings will set of transportation options will exist. come in refrigeration. Commercial mod- "fl- pical European or Japanese city els now on the market can ieduce elec- today has already taken one step toward trici!y use from 1,500 kilowatt-hours per this future. Highly developed rail and Picturing a Sustainable Society (181) bus systems mo e people efficientk be- highwa}s. Dail) trips to the offic e could tween home and work: in Tokyo only 15 be replaced by occasional visits. The percent of comimiters drive cars to the saved thne and frustration will raise bow office. The world of 2030 is apt to rely worker pi oductivity and the quality of particularly heavik on light railsys- life. The current need of many business- tems built at street level, relatively inex- people to jct frequently from place to pensively, that allow people to move place may be substituted by ever more quickly between neighborhoods.32 creative uses of electronic comnmnica- Automobiles will undoubtedly still be tions. And the current transition from in usc four decades from now, but their overnight delivery services to computer- numbeis will be fewer and their role izedfacsimiletransmissionswillbc smaller. Within cities, only electric or nearly complete clean hydrogen-powered vehicles are likely to be permitted, and most of these will be highly efficient "city cars." The energy to run them may well come from Many people may work at home or solar power plants. Families might rein inspecialsatelliteoffices,con- efficient larger vehicles for vacations. nected by electronic lines rather The bicycle will also play a major role, than crowded highways. as it already does in much of Asia as well as in some industrial-country towns and cities. In Amsterdam and many othcr The automobile-based modern world communities such as Davis, California, is now only about 40 years old, but it is bike-path networks have been developer: already apparent to many that, with its that encourage widespread use of this damaging air pollution and traffic conform of personal transport. Also likely to develop rapidly is the concept of bikc- gestion, A does not represent thc pinna- and-ride, using the bicycle to reach rail cle in human social evolution. Although systems that then move commuters into a world where cars play a minor role may the center city. There arc already twice be difficult for somc to imagine, itis as many bikes as cars worldwide. In the worth remembeiing that our grandpar- bicycle-centeredtransportsystem of ems would have had a hard time visualu- 2030, thc ratio could easily be 10 to 1.33 ing today's world of traffic jams and Forty years from now. people will live smog-filled cities.Ultimately, a more closer to their jobs, and much socializing efficient world is likely to be less con- and shopping will be done by bike rathcr gested and less polluted.34 than in a one-ton automobile. Comput- erized delivery services may allow people to shop from homeconsuming less time as well as less energy. In addition, a world that allows only 2 billion tons of REUSING AND RECYCLING carbon emissions cannot be trucking MATERIALS vast quantities of food and other items thousand., of kilometers. In the sustainable, efficient economy of Telecommunications willsubstitute 2030, waste reduction and rec}chng infor travel as well. Man} people ma} work dustries will have largekm (Tilted the at home or in special satellite offices, garbage collection and disposal «nnpa- connected to colleagues and supervisors nies of today. The throwau a} society by electronic lines rather than crowded that has emerged during the late men-

r, ; / 10 (182) Slate of the !Todd 1990 tieth century uses so much energy. emits wily, the option of last I esoi t is disposal so much carbon, and generates so much in a landfill. air pollution, acid rain, water pollution, The firstdieck on theyy orldwide toxic wasteind rubbish that it is stran- movement toward a throw away society gling itself. Rooted in the concept of came during the so sntics as oil prices planned obsolescence and appeals to and emironmental consciousness convenience, it will be seen by historians climbed. Rising energy costs made recy- as an aberration. cling moreattractive,reversingthe Most materials used today are dis- trend toward tossing out more metal, cardedafter one useroughly two glass, and paper. The sec-rind boost thirds of all aluminum, three fourths of came during the eighties as many' urban all steel and paper, and an even higher landfillsitesfilled,forcing municipal share of plastic. Society will become dra- governments to ship their garbage to matically less energy-intensive and less faraway places foi disposal. For many polluting only if the throwaway mental- U.S. cities, garbage disposal costs during ity is replaced by a recycling ethic, Just 5 the last decade increased severalfold, percent as much energy is needed to re- making it cost-effective for them to help cycle aluminum as to produce it from establish recycling industries.37 bauxite, the original raw material. For During the nineties, this trend will be steel produced entirely from scrap, the reinforced by the need to reduce carbon saving amounts to roughly two thirds. emissions, air pollution, acid rain, and Newsprint from recycled paper takes toxic waste. In the early stages, countries will move toward comprehensive, sys- 25-60 percent less energy to make than tematic recycling of metal, glass, paper, that from wood pulp. And recycling and other materials, beginning with glass saves up to a third of the energy source separation at the consumer level. embodied in the original product.36 Many communities in Europe, Japan, Recycling is also a key to getting land, and, more recently, the United S;ates air, and water pollution down to accept- have already taken steps in this direc- able levels. For example, steel produced tion. from scrap reduces air pollution by 85 Steady advances in technologies are percent, cuts water pollution by 76 per- speeding the transition. The electric arc cent, and eliminates mining wastes alto- furnace, as mentioned earlier, produces gether. Paper from recyrled material high-quality steel fin scrap metal using reduces pollutants entering the air by 74 far less energy than a traditional open- percent and the water by 35 percent, as hearth furnace does. Inthe United well as reducing pressures on forests in States,a leader inthistechnology, direct proportion to the amount recy- roughly a third of all steel is already pro- cled.36 duced from scrap in such furnaces.38 A hierarchy of options can guide ma- Historically, the steel industry has terialspolicy: Thefirstpriority,of been concentrated near areas with coal course, is to avoid using any nonessen- and iron ore, such as Wales in the United tial item. Second is to directly reuse a Kingdom oi western Pennsylvania in the productfor example, refilling a glass United States. By 2030, the industry will beverage container. The third is to recy- be widely dispersed. Electric arc fur- cle the material to form a new prodtKt. naces can operate wherever there is elec- Fourth, the material can be burned to tricity and a supply of scrap metal, and extract whatever energy it contains, as they can be built onascale adapted to long as this can be done safel-,. And fi- the volume of locally available scrap.

1 I% r'i t Z1 i Picturing a Sustainable Society (183)

The steel mills of the future will feed packaging. For the final trip fi om supei- heavilyon worn-outautomobiles, market to home, y et another set of mate- household appliances, and indas trial rials is used in the form of paper or plas- equipment. Further, they will provide tic bags, also tvpically discat ded after local jobs and revenue, w hile eliminating one use. Forty y ears from now , go% ern- a source of waste. went regulation is likely to have elhni- In the sustainable economy of 2030, nated excessn e packaging. Throwaway the principal source of materials for in- grocery bags w ill ha% e been replaced by dustry will be recycled goods. Most of durable, reusable bags of canvas or the raw material for the aluminum mill other materia1.40 will come from the local scrap collection center, not from the bauxite mine. Paper and paper products will be produced at In the sustainable economy of recycling mills, with recycled paper moving through a hierarchy of uses, from 2030, the principal source of mate- high-quality bond to newsprint and, rials for industry will be recycled eventually, into cardboard boxes. When, afroods. after several rounds of recycling, the fibers are no longer reusable, they can be burned as fuel in a cogenerating plant. Societies in 2030 may also ha% e de- In a paper products industry that contin- cided to replace multisized and shaped ually uses recy cled materials, wood pulp beverage containers with a set of stan- will play a minor role. Industries will dardized ones made of durable glass that feed largely on what is already within the can be reused many thnes. These could system, turning to virgin raw materials be used for most, if not all, beverages, only to replace any losses in use and re- such as fruit juices, beer, milk, and soda cycling. pop. Bottlers will snnply clean the con- Although early moves away from the tainer, steam off the old label, and add a throwaway society are concentrating on new one. Containers returned to the su- recycling, sustainability over the long permarket or other outlet might become term depends more on eliminating w aste part of an urban or regional computer- flows. One of the most obvious places to ized inventory, whichould permit their reduce the Nolume of waste generated is efficient movement from supermarkets in industry, where a restructuring of or other collection centers to local dair- manufacturing processes can easily slash ies, brew cries, and soda bottling plants wastes by a third or more. The 3M Com- aE needed. Such a sy stem will save an pany halved its hazardous waste flows enormous amount of energy aud mater within a decade of launching a corporation-wide program. A pioneer in waste In addition to recy cling and reusing reduction, 3M also boosted its profits in metal, glass, and papert sustainable so- the process.39 ciety also recycles nutrients. In nature, Another major potential source of one organism's w aste is another's suste- waste reduction lies in the simplification nance;inurbansocieties, how ever, of food packaging. In the United States, human sewage has become a trouble- consumers spent more on food packag- some source of pollutants inri% ers, ing in1986 than American farmers lakes, and coastal waters. The nutrients earned selling their crops. In the interest in human w astes can be reused safel y. as Le attracting customers, items are some- long as the process includes measures to times buried in three or four layers of prevent the spread of disease.

1 (184) Slate of the World 1990

Fortunately,citiesin japan, South and st ater pollution, itss mllilso reduce Korea, 'and China already pros ide some the unsightly Intel that blights the land- examples of this kind of nutrient recy- scape in mans industrial societies today. cling. In these countries, human waste is systematically returned to the land in vegetable-growing greenbelts around cities. Intensively farmed cropland surrounding some cities there produces WITH A RESTORED vegetablesyear-roundusinggreen- houses or plastic covering during the BIOLOGICAL BASE winter to extend the growing season. Imagine trying to meet the food, fuel, Perhaps the best model is Shanghai: and timber needs of some 8 billion peo- after modestly expanding its urban political boundaries to facilitate sewage recy- plenearly 3 billion more than the cur- cling, the city now produces an exporta- rent populationwith 960 billion fewer ble surplus of vegetables.4 tons of topsoil (more than twice the Some cities will probably find it more amount on all U.S. cropland) and 440 efficient to use treated human sewage to million fewer hectares of trees (an area more than half the size of the continental fertilizeaquaculturaloperations.A steady flow of nutrients from human United States). That, in a nutshell, will waste into ponds can supply food for a be the predicament of society in 2030 if vigorously growing population of algae current rates of' soil erosion and defor- that in turn are consumed by fish. In Cal- estation continue unaltered for the next cutta, a sewage-fed aquaculture systm 40 years.43 now provides 20,000 kilograms of fresh Fortunately, or unfortunately,that fish each day for sale in the city. In a predicament will not arise. If the earth's society wilth a scarcity of protein, such an croplands, forests, and rangelands are approach, modeled after nature's nutri- not soon restored and stabilized, world ent recycling, can both eliminate a trou- population will never grow that large; blesome waste problem and generate a human numbers will drop because of valuable food resource.42 malnutrition, famine, and rising death As recycling reaches fullpotential rates, as stated earlier. If, on the other over the next 40 years, households will hand, the population of 2030 is ade- begin to compost yard wastes rather quately being supported, it will be be- than put them out for curbside garbage cause our use of the earth's biological pickup. A lost art in many communities, resources was put on a sound footing composting not only reduces garbage long before then, and because popula- flows, it pros ides a rich source of humus tion gross th sy as slowed before it com- for gardening, lessening the need to bus pletelyos ens helmed life-support sys- chemical fertilizers to maintain lawn and tems. garden fertility. Of necessity, societies in 2030 will be By systematically reducing the flow of using the land intensnely,the needs of a waste and reusing oi recy cling nmst re- population mom e than half again as large maining materials, the bas;c needs of the as today 's cannot be met othem ise. But planet's gl owing number of human resi- unlike the present, land use patterns dents can be satisfied without dest:oy ing tould be abiding 1)5 basic principles of our very life-suppoi t systems. Mos ing in biological stability. nun kilt retention, this dirfction will not onfy create a far carbon balance, soil protection, water more livable environment with less an conservation, and pi esers auon of spe- Picturing a Sustainable Society (185) cies diversity. Rather than the earth's are likely to be largely self-sufficient and photosynthetic productivity' being eaten economically more div erse by 2030.46 away, as is the case now, it will be safe- Halting desertificati on also depends guarded or even enhanced. Harvests will on eliminating 0% ergrazing. The global rarely exceed sustainable yields. liv estock herd in 2030 is thus likely to be Meeting food needs will pose monu- much smaller than today's 3 billion. mental challenges, as some simple num- Since open grazing is likely to diminish, bers illustrate. Currently, 0.28 hectares more farmers w ill integrate livestock of cropland is available for every man, into Meir div erse farming sy stems, using woman, and child. By 2030, assuming for fodder the leaves from trees in their cropland arca expands by 5 percent be- agroforestry systems or the cove crop in tween now and then and that population their rot.ational croppmg patterns.It grows to 8 billion, cropland per person seems inevitable that adequately nour- will have dropped to 0.19 hectaresa ishing a IN orld population 60 percent third iess than we have in today's inade- larger than today 's will pieclude feeding quately fed world. Virtually all of Asia, one third of the global grain harvest to and especially China, will be struggling livestock and poultry, as is currently the to feed its people from a far more mea- case. As meat becomes more scarce and ger cropland area per person.44 expensive, the diets of the affluent will In light of these constraints, the rural move down the food chain .17 landscapes of 2030 are likely to exhibit greater diversity than ttley do now. Vari- ations in soils, slope, climate, and water If the population of 2030 is ade- availability will require different patterns quately being supported, it will be and strains of crops grown in different ways so as to maximize sustainable out- because our use of the earth's bio- put. For example, farmers may adopt nu- logical resources was put on a merous forms of agroforestrythe com- sound footing. bined production of crops and treesto provide food, biomass, and fodder, wide also adding nutrients to soils and Itis difficult to foresee v%e .ner the controlling water Innen-. Many such sys- vast areas of monocultui e wheat, rice, tems already are successfully used.45 and corn so crucial to the global rood Efforts to arrest desertification, now supply in the late twentieth century w ill claiming 6 million hectares cach year, play as great a role in 2030. In the Corn may by' then have transformed 0 e gul- Belt of the United States, farmeis will lied highlands of Ethiopia, China's Loess undoubtedly be rotating clops nmch Plateau, and other degraded areas into morc extensiv ely to help cud) soil ero- productive. income-generating terrain. sion, consen e moistui e, and reduce pes- A mobilization of villagers, scientists, ticide and fertihzer use. a trend already and development workerswillhave under way. spiead widely the successes in land res- Fanners in some parts of the w odd toration evident bythe late eighties. may opt to grow seed-heal ing perennial Much sloring land now losing topsoil glasses, creating a cropping pattern that rapidly'bk i 11 be terraced. enhanced by resembles the nativ e praii les that much shrubs or nitrogen-fixing II e es planted of modern agi kultm ei ep lac ed. Suc h along the contour. With improved crop "poly cultures." like then immocultme varieties and planting patterns that con- countem pat ts, ould yield edible grains. serve soil and water, many of Mese areas oils. and othcr commodities. They takc

00 0 (186) State of the World 1990 advantage of the prairie's natural div er- less on unfamiliar plantsthat «Add sity, drought resistance, and soil-renew- become an important component of ing capacity, and thus greatly reduce the diets 40 years from now.48 need for chemicals, irrigation water, and Forests and woodlands will be alued other intensive inputs. The Land Insti- more highly and for many more easons tute in Salina, Kansas, is pioneering such in 2030 than is the case today. The work, which could result in an altogether planet's mantle of trees, already a third different,inherentlymore enduring less than in preagricultural times and fonn of crop production.48 shrinking by more than 11 million hect- Another option some farmers may ares per year now, will be stable or ex- choose is that of a mixed enterprise of panding as a resuh of serious efforts to food and energyproduction.They slow deforestation and to replant % ast might grow a winter grain, such as areas." wheat, followed by sweet sorghum as a Long before 2030, the clearing of summer energy crop, which would be most tropical forests will have ceased. used to makc ethanol. Besides increas- Since the nutricnts in these ecosystems ing the amount of sunf:ght converted are held in the leaves and biomass of the into biochemical energy, this cropping vegetation rather than in the soil, only pattern wou'd help check soil erosion activities that preserv e the forest canopy since the land would be covered year- are sustainable. Those forestlands that round. can support crop production will already have been identified and converted during the intervening 40 years. While it is The rate of deforestation will have impossible to say how much %irgin tropi- had to slow dramatically by the end cal forest would remain in 2030 if sus- of this decade, and come to a halt tainability is achieved, certainly the rate of deforestation will have had to slow soon thereafter. dramatically by the end of this decade, and come to a halt soon thereafter." Efforts to identify and protect unique Successfully adapting to changed cli- parr 2.1s of forest will probably hav e led matic regimes resulting from green- to a widely dispersed network of pre- house warming as well as to water scar- serves. But a large portion of tropical city and other resource constraints, may forests still standing in 2030 will be ex- leadscientiststo draw ona much ploited in a variety of ways by people broader base of crop varieties. A greater living in and around them. Hundreds of area will be devoted, for example, to extractive reserves" will exist, areas in crops that are salt-tolerant and drought- which local people harvest rubber, re- resistant, whether they are new varieties sins, nuts, fruits, medicinal substances, of familiar crops such as wheat, or less and other nontimber forest products for familiar crops such as amaranth, a grain domestic use or export. Long-term ben- native to the Andean highland of South efitsboth economk and ecological America. The extensivegenepool from a tropical forest area managed in needed to revamp agricultural systems this way are greater than those from depends on the collection of wild plants burning off an equivalent area and plant- from their native areas and storage of ing it in crops or pasture. Mthough the their genetic material in international latter yields greater monetary returns in gene banks. So far this effort has focused the initial few y ears after clearing, in- on the world's 30 major food crops, but come drops to zero when the land's pro-

r; 1 Picturing a Sustainable Society (187)

ductivity is gone, usually within a decade pushes poor people into e% em mol e mai- or so, and virtually all ecological benefits ginal en% ironments. Good stew al dsmp are lost.52 requires that people have plots large By definition, a sustainable society will enough to sustain then familiesithout not be overcutting or degrading its for- abusing the land, access to the techno- ests for lumber or other wood products. logical means of using then land produc- Today's logging operations often dam- tively,and the right to pass it on to their age or destroy large areas, ana regula- children.55 tions governing timber practicesin- This ineY itably sy ill require large land- cludingreforestationroutinelyare holdings in densely populated agrarian ignored. Needed efforts to understand societies to be broken up and redis. how to exploit a natural fo:est for timber tributed to the poorer majority who lack withoutdiminishingitsproductivity, iable livelihoods. Similarly, much gov- species diversity, and overall health are enunent-owned common land, such as still in their infancy.53 forests and pastures, likely will revert to Since societies will be recycling most communities a,-.(1villages that have a of their paper products, demand for stake in optimizing the productivity of pulping wood per person may be less in these lands and managing them sustain- 2030 than today. Still, large areas of par- ably.56 tially desertified land, degraded water- No matter what technologies come sheds, railroad and highway borders, along; including unforeseen advances in and open countryside will need to be in biotechnology, the biochemkal process trees. Serious efforts to alleviate the fuel- of photosynthesis, carried out by green wood crisis in developing countries, to plants, will remain the basis for meeting reduce flooding and landslides in hilly human needs. Given that humanity al- regions, to meet industrial wood needs ready appropriates an estimated 40 per- sustainably, and to slow the buildup of cent of the earth's annual photosynthetic carbon dioxide may have spurred the product on land, leaving only 60 percent planting of F..n additional 200 million for the millions of other species and for hectares or so of trees." protecting basic ecosystem functions, Many of these plantings will be on pri- the urgency of slowing the growth in vate farms as part of agroforestry sys- human numbers and demands is obvi- tems. But plpntations may also have an ous. The sooner societies stabilize their expanded roie. Cities and villages will populations, the greatel will be their op- turn to managed woodlands on their portunities for achieving equitable and outskirts to contribute fuel for heating, stable patterns of land use that can meet cooking, and electricity. Wood from their needs indefinitely.57 theseplantationswillsubstitutefor some portion of coal and oil use, and, since harYested on a sustained-yield basis, will make no net contribution of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. WITH A NEW SET OF VALUES Restoring and stabilizing the biological resource base bv 2030 depends on a The funt'unental changes w e haw out- pattern of land ownership and use far linedin energy, forestry,agriculture, more equitable than today's. Much of and other phy sical systems cannot Occur the degradation now occurring stems without corresponding shifts in die so- from the heavily skewed disu .bution of economicind moral character of land that, along with population growth, human societies. During the transition

n2 e

(188) State of the Woild 1990 to sustamability ,political leaders and tics than in tlw extraction oflirgin mate- citizens alike will be forced to reevaluate rials and production of new goods. their goals and aspirations, to redefine Wind prospectors, energy efficis2ncy their measures of success, and to adjust auditors, and solar architects will be ork and leisure to a new set of princi- among the booming professions stem- ples that have at their core the welfare of ming from the shift to a highly efficient, future generations. renewable energy el onomy. Numbering Given the enormity of the tasks in- in the hundreds of thousands today, jobs volved, many people may assume that in these fields may collectively total in moving in this direction will be painful the millions worldwide within a few and limiting, and thus something to re- decades. Opportunities in forestry will sist. But given the choke of repairing expand markedly with the need to de- your house or having it collapse around signand extendhighlyproductive ou, you would not question whether to agroforestry systems, to better manage undertake the project. natural forests, and to plant and maintain vast areas of trees. Similarly, as new cropping patterns arc devised and zoxic Global military expenditures will chemical use reduced or eliminate be cut Ileavily as countries recog- agronomists will be in far higher d,_- nize that environmental threats to mand, as will specialists in biological methods of pest control. security have supplantedtradi- Many people willfindtheirskills tional military ones. valued in new or expanded lines of work. Petroleum geologists may be retrained as geothermal geologists, for example, Shifts in employment will be among while traditional midwives continue to the most visible as the transition gets broaden their roles to include the spec- under way. Moving from fossil fuels to a trum of family planning needs. diverse set of renewable energy sources, Long befoi e 2030, the trend toward extractingfewer materials from the ever larger cities and an increasing ratio earth and recycling more, and revamp- of urban-to-rural dwellers islikelyto ing farming and forestry practices will have reversed. Each person who moves eatly expand opportunities in new from countryside to city requires that a areas even as the number of some tradi- corresponding surplus of food be pro- tional jobs contracts. duced in some rural part of the world. Losses in coal mining, auto produc- Getting more food from less labor re- tion, road construction, and metals pros- quires the use of more energy, as does pecting will be offset by gains in the processing the food and transporting it manufacture and sale of photovoltaic to the distant city renter. An inexorable solar cells, wind turbines, bicycles, mass trend over the last several decades, the transit equipment, and a host of materi- increasing energy intensity of food pi o- als rzxycling technologies. In land-rich duction and distribution cannot con- countries and those with an abundance tinue indefinitely. ofagriculturalwastes,alcohol-fuel Smaller human settlements will also plants will replace oil refineries. Since be favored by the shift to rcneu able en- planned obsolescence will itself be obso- ergy sources. In contrast to the large lete in a Aistainable society, a far greater centralized fossil-fuel and nuclear plants share of workers will be employ ed in re- that dominate energy systems today, pair, maintenance, and recycling actis power from renewable technologies Picturing a Sustainable Sone tv (189)

whether photovoltaic cells, wood-fired bilitycriteriarathetthan sunplyby plants, or wind generatorscan be de- growth in short-tel in output. As econo- veloped cost-effectively across a range of mist Herman Daly obsen es,new (fit ec- scales. They also allow local areas to cap- don of technical prow Lss1: needed, italize on their natural endowments, "one that squeezes more service per unit whether that be strong winds, bright of resource, rather than one that just sunshine, abundant woodlands, or prox- runs more resources through the sys- imity to geothermal reservoirs. Inso tem." Furthermore, he points out, "as doing, they foster greater local self-reli- long as the GNP is thought tomeasure ance. human well-being,theobstaclesto As the transition to a more environ- change are enormous.... The market mentally benign economy progresses, sees only efficiencyit has no organs for sustainabilitywillgraduallyeclipse hearing, feeling, or smelling either jus- growth as the focus of economic policy- tice or sustainability."58 making. Over the next few decades,gov- National military budgets in a smtain- ernment policies will encourage invest- able world will be a small fraction of mentsthatpromotestabilityand what they are today. Now totalingsome endurance at the expense of those that $1 trillion per year, global militaryex- simply expand short-term production. penditures will be cut heavily as coun- Companies would thus devote a greater triesrecognizethatenvironmental share of their investment capital, forex- threats to security have supplanted tradi- ample, to converting to renewableen- tional military ones. Moreover, sustaina- ergy sources and to installing recycling bility cannot be achieved withouta mas- technologiesand proportionately less siveshift of resources from military to expanding the output of goods. endeavors into energy efficiency, soil As a yardstick of progress, the gross conservation, tree planting, family plan- national product (GNP) will be seen as a ning, and other needed developmentac- bankrupt indicator. By measuring flows tivities. Rather than maintaining their of goods and services, GNP undervalues own large defense establishments, gov- qualities a sustainable society strives for, ernments may come to rely on a greatly such as durability and resource protec- expanded and strengthened U.Npeace- tion, and overvalues many it does not, keeping force, one that would have the suchasplannedobsolescence and power and authority to defend any mem- waste.58 ber country against an aggressor. This Shoddy appliances that need frequent mig'sn allow more countries to follow repair and fast replacement, for in- Costa Rica's example, and eliminate stance, raise the GNP more than a well- their armies altogether." crafted product that lasts, even though Nations will undoubtedly be cooperat- the latter is really more valuable. Simi- ing in numerous other waysas well. larly, the pollution caused by a coal- Careful tracking of changes in atmo- burning power plant raises GNP byre- spheric chemistry, forest cover, land quiring expenditures on lung disease productivity, and ocean resources will be treatment and the purchase of a scrub- among the many efforts handled by mul- ber to control emissions. Yet society tinational teams of scientists andgov- would be far better off if power were ernment workers. It may be among the generated in ways that did not pollute ironies of future political development the air in the first place. that even as individual nationsmove to In 2030, planners will measure eco- decentralize power and decisionmaking nomic and social advances by sustaina- within their own borders, they simulta- (190 State of tlh11'w Id 1990 neonsly establish a degi ee of coopera- human enei gy now de\ oted to design- tion and coordination at the interna ing, producing, ad% ci tismg, buy ing, con- tional le% el that f, )es w ell bey ond any suming, and discarding material goods thing witnessed to date. are enormous. Much undoubtedly would be channeled into forming richer human relationships,strongercommunities, Materialism simply cannot survive and greater outlets for cultural diversity, music, and the arts. thetransitiontoasustainable As tile amassing of personal and na- world. tional wealth becomes less of a goal, the gap between haves and have-nots will gradually close. ;:iiminating many socie- Mov ement toward a lzv.ting society tal tensions. Ideological differences may cannot occur w ithout a transformation fade as w ell, as nations adopt sustainabil- ofindividualprim Hiesandvalues. ity as common cause, and as they come Throughout the ages, philosophers and to recognize that milk% ing it requii es a religious leaders ha% e denounced mate- shared set of values that includes demo- rialism as a viable path to human ful- cratic principles, freedom to innov ate, fil!ment. Yet societies across the ideolog- respect for human rights, and accept- ical spectrum have persisted in equating ance of di% ersity . With thc cooperative quality of life with increased consump- tasks inv oh ed in repairing the earth so tion.Personal self-worthty picallyis many and so large, the idea of waging measured by possessions, just as social war could become an anachronism. progress is judged by GNP growth. Fortunately, there is as much a pull as Because of the strain on resources it a push toward an enduring society . As creates, materialism simply cannot sur- econonist I lennan Daly and theologian iv e the transition to a sustainable world. John Cobb w rite, "People can be attraded As public understanding of he need to by new w ays of ordering their lives, as adopt simpler and less consumptive life- w ell as dnven by the recognition of what styles spreads, it will become unfashion- will happen if they do not change."6' able to own fancy new cars and clothes. The opportunity to build a lasting This shift, how ever, will be among the foundation will pass us by if w e do not hardest to make, since consumerism so seize it soon. To get under way, we need deeply permeates soL icties of ili politit al only stop resisting the push, and em- stripes. Yet the potential benefits of tit,- bra( e the pull, of building a sustainable leashing the tremendous quantities of society.

" Notes

Chapter 1. The Illusion of Progress 5. Annual loss of topsoil is author's estimate. based on Lestcr R. Brown and Edwald 1. United Nations (UN). Department of C. Wolf, Soil Ei ()stow Quiet Crisis in the Iroild Intermitional Economic and Social Affairs Economy. Worldwatch Paper 60 (Washington, (DIEFA), Jlrld Demogiapluc Estunates and Pro- D.0 :WorldwatchInstitute.September 1950-2025 jections, (New York. 1988): world 1984); damage to crops by air pollution from economic output from Herbert R. Block. The Jams JMacKenzie and Mohmned 1'.El- Planetaiy Pioduet in 1980' A Creative Pause Asba y.111 Winds Auborne Pollution's Toll on (Washington.D.C.:U.S.Department of Trees and Ci ops (Washington, D.C.: World Re- S.ate. 1981), and from Intel national Mone- sources Institute. 1988). tary Fund (IMF), Inter'tonal hnancial Statis- tics real book (Washington. D.C.: 1989). 6 Grain production data from USDA. ERS, Woad Gum. except 1989 flom USDA, 2 United States Depai uncut of' Agricul- Wol Id Agi icultural Outlook Boal d (WA0B). ture (USDA). Economic Research Service Agricultuie Supply and Demand Estim(ites, (FIRS). IFoild Gum Ilamested Aiea, Pioduction. Washington. D.C.. October 12. 1989; per and Field 1050-88 (unpublished printout) capita production derived using population (Washington. D.C.: 1989). figures in Francis Urban and Philip Rose. World Population by Country and Region. 3. Worldwide loss of topsoil is authoi .7- es- 1950 (46.and Projections to2050 timate; limes( loss is author's estimate based (Washington. D.0 : USDA, FRS. 1988), whk h are based on data on U.N. Food and Agriculture Organuation from U.S. Bin eau of the Census; amount of (FAO) data: loss of spe 'es from E.O. decreased production offset by stock deple- ed., Biodiveisity (Washington, D.C.: National tion based on grain consumption and re- Academy Press, 1988). serves data in USDA, Foreign Agricultural 4. Carbon dioxide levels from A. Neftel et Service (FAS), Mild Gunn Situation and Out- al., "Evidence in Polal Ice Cores fol the In- look, Washington. D.0. September 1989. crease in Atmospheric CO2 in the Last Two 7. Percapitagrainproductionfrom Centuries," Nonni', May 2. 1985, and Charka USDA, ERS. Giam; African gram im- D. Keeling. Scripps Institution of Oceanos- ports from USDA, FAS, World Rice Reference raphy, private communicationjuly 3 i, 1989; Tables (unpublished printout) (Washmgt on, ozone levels from National Aeronautics awl D.C.: Jul) 1988) and USDA. FAS. Iroyld Space Administration, "Executive Summary and Coaise Gyms Refeience Tables (unpub- of the Ozone rends Panel," Washington. lished pi intout)(Washington, D.C.: August D.C., March 15, 1988. see Chapter 6 for a 1988); hunger in Afrka from World Bank. discussion of ail pollution's effects on lakes Repoit of the Ask Four on Food Sei way in .1frica and forests (Washington, D.C.: 1988); quote from World

11 n 1,:.4 (792) Notes Chapter 1 )

Bank, Sub-Sahar on ii a From Cr los to Sustain- bet13,1089, in Austi alia horn Nfic had able (;rowth.1 Long-Tem POspe( ni,eStudy Nfahk, G eens Sc. the Pa«.." hir Eastern (Washington ,D.0 :1989), the "ni ght mai e Economi: Rei,iew, July 13, 1989. scenai io" was first developed by the U N. Ec- onomic Commission for Aft ica in 1983. 10. UN, DIESA, World Population Thospects 1988 (New York 1989) 8 Food consumption per person in Africa 11. 1987carbonemissionsimrease and Latin America derived ft om USDA, ERS, derived from Gregg Mat land et al.. Estimates World Grain, from USDA, FAS, World liheat of CO, Emissions fiom Fossil Fuel Burning and and Coarse Grams, from USDA. FAS, Ifoil(1 Cement ilIanufactunng, Based on the Cnited Xa- Rice, and ['tom Urban and Rose, World Popula- tion, infant mortality in Brazil, Ghana. Nfex- twns Energy Statistics and the S Bureau of ico and Uruguay from Per Pinstrup-And- Mines Cement Manufactunng Data (Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory. ersen."FoodSeem ityand S tructui al Adjustment." in Colleen Roberts. ed.. Trade, 1989), and GI egg Nfarland, Oak Ridge Na- tionalLtiboratory, private communication Aid and Pit Reform: Thoceedings of the Eighth and print aut, July 6, 1989; 1988 total emis- Agncultu fmposium(Washington,D.C.: Woi Id Bank, 1988): in Zambia from United sions ano increase from 1987 are World- Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), State of watch Institute estimates based on above and British Petroleum Company. BP Statistical Re- the World's Children 1989 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989): in El Salvador from view of World Energy (London: 1989). LindseyGrusen,"Sal% ador'sPovertyIs 12, Peter M. Vitousck et al., "Human Ap- Called Worst in Century," New York Times, propriation of the PI oducts of Photosynthe- October 16, 1988; in Madagascar from Mi- sis." MoSnence, June 1986. chael GriffinlIadagascar (Nfauritius: undated); in Dominican Republic from 13. Share of cal th's surface that is land Charles F. NfcCov. "Debt Crisis is Inflicting a h om ibid; land in crops, pasture, forest. and Heavy Toll in Donfinican Republic." Wall other uses from FAO, 1987 Production Year- Street Journal , August 20, 1987; in Peru from book (Rome: 1988). Nfichael Reid. "Rebels Gain As Economy 14. Cropland, grassland, and forest area Worsens." Christian Same , August 2, trends from FAO, Produawn Yearbook ,sarious 1989, issues, from Francis Urban, "Agricultural Re- sources Availability," World Agriculture Situa- 9. EnvironmentalpoliticsinWestern Europe from Set ge Schmemann, "Environ- tion and Outlook Repo? I , USDA. ERS, Washing- ton, D,G, June 1989, and from USDA, ERS, mentalists and Socialists Gain in European World Grain: historical forest cover trends Vote," New York Tunes, June 19. 1989; in Po- from Sandra Postel and Lori Heise, Reforest- land from "Report of the Round Table Sub- ing the Earth, Worlchs,atch Paper 83 (Wash- unit on Ecology." Warsaw, March 1989, submitted as supplementary materialto the ington, D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, April 1988). Congressional Hearings on East-West Envi- ronmental Cooperation. Commission on Se- 15. MacKenzie and El-Ashry, , ill 11'uZ, Si- curity and Cooperation in Eui ope, Septem- berian forest decline from George Wood- ber 28. 1989. in So% iet Union hom Alexel ell, Director, Woods Hole Research Center, Yablokos ,Deputy, Congress of People's prisate communication. September 16, 1989. Deputies, Union of Soviet Socialist Repub- 16. MacKenzie and EI-Ashry, IllWinds, lics,private communication, Washington, Woodwell, private communication. D,C., October 30, 1989, in Japan from Masao Kunihiro. Nfembei , Japanese Diet, pi ivate 17, Edward C. Wolf, "Managing Range- communication, Washington, D.C,, Septem- lands." in Lester R. Br,Iwn et al.. State of the Notes (Chaim'? 1 ) 1193

World 1986 (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., umber hail est. Katsuya Fukuoka. l'he o- 1986); African livestock data for 1950 from nomu.s tf Comleine Between 3 1an and Natuv FAO, Production Yearbook 1954 (Rome. 1955) (Tok) o. Rissho Unn et sity Institute I'm Eco- and for 1987 from FAO Monthly Bulletin of nomic Research. 1985). Statatics, Vol. I, No. 3, 1988; African population from Urban and Rose, World Population. 25. Repetto et al, Wastmg AccOs

18. FAO Monthiy Bulletin of Statistics, Vol. I. 26 See Chapter 1 for mot e infonnation No. 3, 1988; Southern African Development on thc unsustainable production of grain. Coordination Conference, SA DCC Agnculture: 27. Area of rapid topsoil loss (now m- Toward 2000 (Rome: FAO, 1984). eluded in U.S. Consery ation Reset ve Pro- 19. Wolf, "Managing Rangelands"; Gov- gram) from Brad Karmen. ERS. USDA, ernment of India, "Strategies, Structures, Washington. D.C., private communication, Policies: National Wastelands Development October 25, 1989, Grelt Plains vy heat yield Board," New Delhi, mimeographed, Febru- estimate based on USDA ERS,o,ld Gunn . ary 6, 1986; M.V. Desai, "Gujarat: Lendins. 28. U.S. irrigated area from Clifford Dick- HelpingHand,"HindustanTunes (New ason, ERS, USDA, Washington, D.C., private Delhi), October 8, 1988. Lommunicanon, October 19, 1989; ;flea with 20. Loss of cropland from Lester R. falling water tables from Clifford Dickason, Brown, The Worldwide Loss of Cropland, World- "Improved Estimates of Groundwater Min- watch Paper 24 (Washington, D.C.: World- ing Acreage," Journal of Sod and Wato Como- watch Institute, October 1978), and from vaiwn May/June 1988; the greatest excess FAO, Protect and Produce. Soil Conservation for world production of grain dui ing the eighties Development (Rome: 1983); growth in wcrld was 67.2 million tons in 1985, according to automobile fleet from Motor Vehicle Manu- USDA, FAS, World Giain Situation and Outlook. facturers Association, Facts and Figures '89 29. Alex Echols, Senior Legislative Assist- (Detroit, Mich.: 1989). ant to Senator Robert W. Kasten, Jr., Wash- 21. Vitousek et al., "Human Appropria- ington, D.C.. private communication, No- tion." vember 1,1989; U.S. Public Law 101-45, June 30, 1989. At a meeting in Caracas, Ven- 22. Global economic output from iMi, In- ezuela, the South Commission, a group of ternahonal Fmannal Statistics Yearbook, job cre- political leaders from developing coLntiies, ation from Economic Report of duPresident called for the adjustment of GNP statistics to (Washington, D.C. U.S. Government Print- reflect a variet) of other indicatorsicluding ing Office, 1989). pollution and depletion of natural resources; Hazel Henderson, "National Economic In- 23. Robert Repetto et al., Wasting Assets: dexes Aren't Enough," Chnstian Science Mmu- Natural Resources in the National Income Accounts to? , August 17, 1989, (Washington, D.C.: World Resources Insti- tute, 1989). 30. Population data from Urban and Rose, 24. Ibid. Nations may derive more from World Populatwn. leaving forests standing than from logging 31. See Chapter ,1 foi furthei discussion of them: one economist has calculated that for food production and food swim), gram Japan's forests the annual economic benefits production from USDA, ERS, World Gian of water resources conservation, soil erosion grain prkes from IMF, Into natwnal Finam ial prevention, landslide prevention, and recrea- Statistics, Washington, D.C., monthly, various tion are greater than the value of di,: annual issues.

4 rir% (1.9-1 ) Notes (Chapter 1) 32. World gram production from USDA, 40. John Hunt, "Conference Puts Risk to ERS, World Grain, except 1Va9 from USDA, Ozone on World Map," Financial Times (Lon- WAOB, Supply and Demand Estimates. don), March 8, 1989. 33. World grain production from USDA, 41. Centrefor Our Common Future, ERS, World Gram, except 1989 from USDA, "Background Information on the Hague WAOB, Supply and Demand Estimates, grain Declaration," press release, Geneva, undated prices from IMF, Internatwnal Fmancial Statu- (conference Ii&d Mai ch 10-11, 1989) tics; U.S. idled cropland from Karmen, pri- 42. Peter Calamai, "Earth Council Next vate communication. Step," ia Southam Newspap -rs (Canada), 34. Fertilizer consumption 1984-87 from Our Fragile I i!tire (special supplement on the FAO, FAO Quarterly Bulletm of Statistics , Vol. I, environment), October 7,1989; Crispin No. 2, 1988; 1988 from Fertilizer Institute, Tickell, Permanent Representative of the Feinhzer Facts and Frgures 1989 (Washington, Uniten Kingdom to die United Nations, D.C.: 1989); 1989 is author's estimate. "Global Climate Change," Statement to the Economic and Social Council, New York, 35. World grain consumption was an es- May 8, 1989; Eduard A. Shevardnadze, Min- timated 322 kilograms per capita in 1989, so ister for Foreign Affairs of the Union of So- the additional 88 million people that year viet Socialist Republics, Statement to the would need 28 million tons of grain; figure U.N. General AAsembly, New York, Septem- derivedfromconsumptionestimatein ber 27, 1988; Geoffrey Palmer, Prime Minis- USDA, WAOB, Supply and Demand Estimates, ter of New Zealand, General Debate State- and from population estimate in Urban and ment, U.N. General Assembly, New York, Rose, Woild Population. October 2, 1989. 36. Malnutrition information from UNI- 43. Edward Cody, "Pact Seeks to Shield CEF, State of the World's Children 1989; declin- Third World States," Washington Post, March ing food aid from USDA, ERS, World Food 23, 1989. Needs and Availabilities, 1988/89: Fall (Wash- ington, D.C.: 1988), and from Ray Nightin- 44. Ibid. gale et al., "Higher Prices Strain Food Aid 45. "Seven Nations' Leaders Endorse Ac- Budgets," Agricultural Outlook, USDA, ERS, tion to Protect Earth's 'Ecological Balance'," Washington, D.C., September 1989. InternatwnalEnvironmentReporter,August 37. Grain stocks and production from 1989, Summit of the Arch, "Economic Decla- USDA, FAS, World Grain Situatwn and Outlook; ration," Paris, July 16, 1989. countries that import U.S. grain from USDA, 46. "Is Europe Turning Green?" (edito- ERS, World Agricultural Trends and Indicators, rial), New York Trines. June 22, 1989; Schme- 1970-88 (Washington, D.C.: 1989). mann, "EnvironmentalistsandSocialists 38. Grain fed to livestock from USDA, Gain in European Vote"; Sheila Rule, "Bat- FAS. World Wheat and Coarse Grains Reference tlingfor England's Green and Pea ,ant Tables, and from Gerald Ostrowski, USDA, Land," New York Trmes, July 10, 1989. FAS, Washington, D.0 , private communica- 47. "Environmental Party Gains 20 Seats, tion, September 1989. Gets 5.4 Percent of Voter- TOection," Intema- 39. U.N. World Food Council (WFC), twnal Environment Reporte, ,October 1988; "The Global State of Hunger and Malnutri- number of seats in Riksdag from John Hag- tion. 1988 Report," 14th Ministerial Session, gert, Embassy of Sweden. Washington, D C., Nicosia, Cyprus, March 24, 1988. private communication, October 25, 1989;

2 r, 9 Notes (Chap; 1 ) 11951 Greens in Italian House of Deputle from Group, Warren, Vt., pm ate communa anon, press office, Embass) of Italy, Washington, Nov ember 24, 1989, Madeleine NI. Kum, D.C., private communication. Novembei 2. Gov ei nor, State of Vermont, "A Legacv 1989; Malik, "Greens Set the l'ace", Mark the Next Generation: the Vei wont Third Humer,"GreensJoinMainstreamin Centut v Trust," remarks at 25th anniv et sal y France," ll'ashmgton Post, Ma Ica ..`2,1989, celebration of the Vermont Natural Re- "Greens Capture Europe's Imagination" sources Council. Montpelier, Vt., Septembel (editorial),Nature ,June 22, 1989. 16, 1989.

48. Poland from "Report of the Round 54 Alan B. Durning,lawn at the Grassioots.

Table Subunit on Ecology"; Soviet Union FightingPoz,erty and Envuonmental Decline, fromYabloko^', privatecommunication, Worldv%atch Paper 88 (Washington, DC: Japan from Kunihiro, private commumca Worldwatch Institute, Januar} 1989). tion. 55. "U.N.-Commissioned Harris Poll 49. Govenunent of the Netherlands, Min- Shows Environmental Concerns,"Maltina- istryofHousing, Physical Planning, and the (mail Envuonmental Outlook,May 16, 1989, Environment, "Netherlands National Envi- thecountriessurveyed were Argentina, ronmental Policy Plan. Extra Expenditure of China,Hungary,India. Jammu, Japan, 6.7 Billion Guilders in 1994," press release, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Saudi Ara- May 25, 1989: Government of the Nether- bia, Senegal, the Federal Republic of Ger- lands, Ministry of Housing, Physical Plan- many, and Zimbabwe; other polls have found ning, and the Environment, "Netherlands strong and rising concern over environmen- National Environmental Policy Plan: Drastic tal issues, see "Environmental Worry Up, Decisions inevitable to Improve Environ- New York Times ,July 2, 1989; Richard Monn, ment," press release, May 25, 1989. "Polls Show Public Wants Cleanup, But Will It Pay?"Washington Post ,June 18, 1989. 50. Ministry of Environment,Environment and Development. Progranune for Noni,ay's Follow- 56. Environmental and defense spending Up of the Report of the World Commssion on Envi- from Office of Management and Budget,ilts- ronment and Deve:opment ,Report to the Stort- toncal Tables, Budget of the United States Govern- ing No. 46, 1988-89 (Oslo: Government of ment, Fiscal Yea;1990 (Washington, D.C.: Norway, 1989). U.S. Government Printing Office,1989); 51. Robert J.L. Hawke, Prime Minister of figures do not completely reflect the relative Australia, "Speech by the Pnme Minister: size of military and environmental spending: Launch of Statement on the Env ironment," for example, the military spending figure Wentworth, N.S.W., Austraha, July 20, 1989. does not include military aid to foreign governments or interest on previous military rx- 52. "Score One for the Trees,"Econonnst , penditures financed government borrow- January 14, 1989; James Brooke, "Rain and ing, and thcnatural resourcesand Fines, But Mostly Rain, Slow Burning of Am- env ilonment figure includes expenditures azon Forest in Brazil,"New York Times,Ser- (e.g., on water projects) that a not for envi- tember 17, 1989. ronmental protection. 53. "New Jersey Residents Required to 57. Countries that have signed or agreed Sort Trash,"Washington Post,April 21, 1987; to sign the Montreal Protocol from Hunt, Timothy Egan, "Curbside Pickup and Sludge "Conference Puts Risk to Ozone on World Forests: Somc Cities Make Recycling Work," Map"; as of October 1989, only 48 nations New York Times,October 24, 1988; Joan had actually ratified the Montreal Protocol Mulhern, Vermont Public Interest Research other nations' ratifications al e still pending-- (196) Notes Chapters 1 and 2)

according to Lir Cook. Fi iends ai the Earth, 4. Worlds% atch Institute estimates based Washington, D.C., private cor-munication, on Gregg Marland et al.,Estimates of CO2 October 31, 1989, Ss% edish CFC phaseout Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burmng and Cement from Government of Sweden, "Environmen- Manufacturmg, Based on the United Nations En- tal Policy for the 1990s," Environmental Bill, ergy Statistics and the CS. Bureau of el fines Cement March 4, 1988, and from Sverker Hogberg, Manufacturing Data(Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak scientific counselor, Embassy of Sweden, Ridge National Laboratory,1989); Gregg Washington, D C,private communication, Marland, private communication and print- October 13,1988; Kara Swisher, "4 Big out, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Firms Pledge to Cut Use of Ozone-Sapping Ridge, Tenn., July 6, 1989; British Petroleum CFCs," Woshington Post,August 8, 1989. (BP),BP Statistical Review of Wculd Energy 58. Anima: addition to world population (London: 1989); R.A. Houghton et al., "The from UN, D1ESA,troild Population Thospects Flux of Carbon from Terrestrial Ecosystems 1988,carbon dioxide emissions from Mar- to the Atmosphere in 1980 Due to Changes land etal.,Estimates of CO2 Emisswns;and in Land Use: Geographic Distribution of the from Marland, prisate communication and Global Flux,"Tellus,February-April 1987; printout, soil erosion reduction derived from values in this chapter generally will be in information in USDA, ERS,Agricultural Re- tennis of carbon. To derive carbon dioxide solute's Cropland. Irate?, add Conservation Situa- weight fi om carbon multiply by 3.67 (carbon tion and Outlook Report,Washington,D.C., has a molecular weight of 12, oxygen of 16; September 1989,and from USDA, Sod Con- therefore, one molecule of calbon dioxide sersation Sersice.1982 Natwnal Resouices ln- (CO2) contains one part carbon (12) to two ventoiy(Washington, D.C.: 1984). parts oxygen (2 times 16), which equals 44, a factor of 3.67 above the simple carbon value). Chapter 2. Slowing Global Warming 5. Marland, private communication; B1', I."UNEP/WMO Panel from 30 Countries BP Statistical Review. to Work Toward Global W:irming Treaty," international Envuonment Reponer,December 6 Marland et al.,Estimates of CO2 Emuslons; 1988. Marland, private communication; World- watch estimates for 1988 carbon emissions 2. U S. Environmental Protection Agency derived from abas e and from BP,BP Statisti- (EPA), PolityOptions fen Stabiking Global Ch cal Review. mate(draft) (Washington, D.0. 1989). 7. Worlduatch Institute estimates based 3. James E. Hansen. NASA Goddard Insti- on Marland et al.,Estimates of CO2 Emissions; tute for Space Studies, "The Greenhouse Ef- pre-1973 growth rate was 4.5 percent annu- fect.: Impacts on Current Global Tempera- ally; since 1973, the average annual growth ture and Regional Heat Waves," Testimony rate has been 3.5 percent. before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C., 8. International Energy Agency (1EA), June 23, 1988, Stephen Schneider,Global "Energy Policies and Programmes of lEA Irarming. Are We Entenng the Gieenhouse Cen- Countries,"General Report(Paris: Organisa- tury?(San Francisco. Sierra Club Books, tion for Economic Co-operation and Devel- 1989); James E. Hansen et al "Global Cli- opment (OECD), in press); Worldwatch In- mate Changes as Forecast by the G1SS 3-D stitute estimates based on Marland et al., Model,"Journal of Geophysical Reseaich,Au- Estimates nr CO2 Emissions,and BP,BP Statisti- gust 20, 1088. cal Review. Notes (Chapter 2) (197)

9. Lee Schipper and Ruth Caron Cooper, based on D.O. Hall et gd., Bwmassfor Energyin "Energy Conservation in the USSR: Realistic Developing Countnes (Elms!: )rd, N.Y.. Pe rga- or Mirage?" presented to the Meeting on So- mon Press, 1982), on Daniel Deudney and viet Energy Options and Global Environ- Christopher Flavin, Renewable EnergyThe mentalIssues,GeorgetownUniversity, Power to Choose (New York: W.W. Not ton & Washington, D.C., June 29, 1989. Co., 1983), and on BP, BP Statistical Review.

10. Marland, private communication; San- 19. Gregg MarlansA,"CarbonDioxide dra Poste', and Lori Heise, Reforesting the Emission Rates for Conventional and Syn- Earth, Worldwatch Paper 83 (Washington, thetic Fuels," Energy, VoL 8, No, 12, 1983, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, April 1988). Dean Abrahamson, University of Minnesota, 1 1. Christophcr Flavin, Eledricity fora De- "Relative Greenhouse Heating from the Use veloping World, Worldwatch Paper 70 (Wash- of Fuel Oil and Natural Gas," unpublished, ington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, June May 20, 1989. 1986); Marland et al., Estimates of CO2 Enus- 20. Mailand et al., Estimates of CO2 Emu- mons . mons; George Borris, Electric Power Research 12. Alberto Setzer et al., "Relati5rio de Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, Calif., private Atividades do Projeto IBDF-INPE 'SEQE' communication, July IS, 1989; M. Steinberg Ano 1987," Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais, et al ,A Systems Study for the Removal, Recovery, São José dos Campos, Brazil, May 1988 and Disposal of Carbon Dioxide .from Fossil Fuel Power Plants in the U.S. (Springfield, Va.: Na- 13. EPA, Policy Options;"Conference tional rechnical Information Service, 1984). Statement," The Changing Atmosphere: MI- plications for Global ..lecurity, Toronto, June 21. Equipment costs from EPA, Polwy op- 27-30, 1988. nons .

14 Worldwatch estimate based on Mar- 22. LEA, Eneigy Conservation in lEA Colin (nes land et al, Estimates of CO2 Ermssions. (Paris. OECD, 1987); William U. Chandler et aL, Energy Efficiency A New Agenda (Washing- 15. Ibid.;Worldwatch estimatesalso ton. D.C.: American Council for an Energy- based on Bert Bolhi et aL, eds., The Greenhouse Efficient Economy, 1988); José Goldemberg Effect, Climate Change and Ecosystems (Chiches- et al., Energy for a Sustainable World (Washing- ter, U.K.: John Wiley and Sons, 1986). ton, D.C.: World Resources Institute, 1987). 16. Centre for Our Common Future, "Background Information on the Hague 23. Lighting electricity figuresare World- Declaration," press release, Geneva, undated watch estimates based on U.S. figures andon (conference held March 10-11, 1989); Sum- United Nations, 1985 Energy Statistics Yearbook mit of the Arch, "Economic Declaration," (New York: 1987); projected growth is based Paris, J uly 16, 1989. on an assumed 3-percent annual growth rate, with carbon emissions based on rephcing 17. Population Reference Bureau, 1989 coal-fired generation through efficiency im- World Population Data Sheet, 1989, Francis provements; Arthur H. Rosenfeld and David Urban and Philip Rose, World Population by Hafemeister, "Energy-Efficient Buildings," Country and Region, 1950-1986, and Projectwas Scientific Amencan, April 1988. to 2050 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research 24. Michael Renner, Rethuiking the Role of Service (ERS), 1988). the Automobile, Worldwatch Paper 84 (Wash- ington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, June 18. Fossil fuel contribution and break- 1988); a 3-percent annual growth in vehicle down are Worklwatch Institute estimates numbers, or a 75-percent increase by 2010, is

' 1 2 (198) Notes (Chapter 2) consistent with iccent trends, carbon emis- it!, of 312,000 megawatts and global carbon sion figures in e Worldwatch estimates based emissions of 7.3 billion tons on Gregg Mar land, "The Impact of Synthetic '31. Mark Newham, "West Germany to Fuels on Global Carbon Dioxide," ii. W.C. Build 150 MWe of Wind Farms by Mid- Clark, ed.,Carbon Dioxide Review 1982(New 1990s,"International Solar Energ Intelligence York: Oxford Univ ersity Press, 1982), Debo- Report ,Novembei, 22, 1988: Department of rah Bleviss,The New Oil Crisis and Fuel Economy Non-Conventional Energy Sources, Ministry Technologies Prepanng the Light Transportation of Energy-;nnualRepo? t1987-88(New (New York: Quorum 1ndushy foi the 1990s Delhi, India. undated); Paul Gipe, "Wind En- Press, 1988). ergy Conies of Age in California," Paul Gipe 25. Worldwatch Institute estnnate based and Associates, Tehachapi, Calif., July 1989; on Mai land, private connnunication and on Robert R. Lynette, "Wind Enerp Systems," BP,BP Statistical Review. . presented to the Forum on Renewable En- ergy and Climate Change, Washington, D.C., 26 Carbon estimates were derived by de- June 14-15, 1989, Christopher Flavin, Wind ternmiing the additional generation of nu- Power. A Turning Point,Worldwatch Paper 45 clear powel and hydroelectric power from (Washington, D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, 1973 through 1988 in BP,BP Statistical Review Juh 1981), the 10-percent projection is a of ilOrld Energy(London: various years). Worldwatch estimate. 27. Christopher Flavin, Testimony in Sup- 32. Susan Williams and Kevin Porter, port of Statement of Case of Greenpeace, Power Plays(Washington, D.C.: Investor Re- U.K., Hinkley Inquiry, April 1989, Lows sponsibility Research Center, 1989); Paul Harris, "Sentiment Against Nuclear Power Kruger, "1987 EPRI Surv ey of Geothermal Plants Reaches Record High,"The Hams Electric Utilities." Electric Power Research Poll,Creators Syndicate, Inc., Los Angeles, Institute, Palo Alto, Calif., undated, Ronald Calif., Januarl, 15, 1989; Christopher Flavin, DiPippo, "International Developments in Reassessing Nuclear Power.The Fallout-rom Geothermal Power Development, Geother- Chernobyl,Worichcatch Paper 75 (Washing- mal Resources Council Bulletin,May 1988. ton,D.C.:WorldwatchInstitute,March 33. Williams and Porter,Power Plays;Mi. 1987); number of plants under construction chael Lotkel, Vice I'resident, Luz Interna- is Worldwatch estimate based on "World List tional, "Solar Electric Generating System of Nuclear Power Plants,"Niwlear News,Au- (SEGS),"presentedto SOLTECH '89, gust1989; International Atomic Energy March 7, 1989; Paul Savoldelh, LUZ Interna- Agency,Annual Report(Vienna: 1974). tional, Los Angeles, Calif., private comnnini- 28. Ridley quote from "Nuking the Green- cation and printout, July 11, 1989. house,"New Scientist,November 5, 1988; 34. SolarEnergy Research Institute Flavin,Reassessing Nudear Power;Irvin G. (SERI), "Photovoltaics: Electricity from Sun- Bupp and Jean-Claude Derian,The Faded shine," Golden, Colo., unpublished, 1989; Momise of Nuclear Power(New York: Basic Christopher Flavin,Electncity hom Sunlight. Books, 1981). The Emergence of Photorroltaics(Washington, 29. John J. Taylor, "Improved and Safer D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice, Nuclear Power,"Science,April 21, 1989; U.K. 1984); KM. Hubbard, "Photovoltaics Today study from "Outlook on Advanced Reac- and Tomorrow,"Sclence,April 21, 1989; Ma- heshwar Dayal, Director, Department of tors,"Nucleonics Week,March 30, 1989 Non-Conventional Energy Sources, New 30. Worldwatch Institute estimate based Delhi, India, private communication, July 13, on current. global nuclear generating capac- 1989. I-.1( 0 Notes (Chapter 2) (i99) 35. Hubbard, "Photovoltaics Today and inthe Federal Republic of Germany (Berlin: Tomorrow"; SERI, "Photovoltaics: Electric- Springer-Verlag, 1988). ity from Sunshine." 40. Electricitycosts based on Howard 36. Hall et al., Biomass for Energy in Develop- Geller, American Council for an Energy Ef- ing Countnes; World Commission on Environ- ficient Economy, Washington, D.C., private ment and Development, Our Common Future communication, August 15, 1989, Tom Gray, (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987); American Wind Enei gy Association, Nor- Deudney and Flavin, Renewable Energy; Brazil wich, Vt., private communication, March 21, example is a Worldwatch Institute estimate 1989; Shepard Buchanan, Bonneville Poser based on Gregg Marland and Tom Boden, Administration, Portland, Ore.. private com- Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Testimony munication and printout, July 28, 1989; Rich- before Committee on Energy and Natural ard Nishkian, California Energy Company, Resources, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Calif., private communica- July 26, 1989, on Philip M. Fearnside, Na- tion, August 22, 1989; Charles Komanoff, tional Institute for Research in the Amazon, Komanoff Energy Associates, New York, "The Charcoal of Carajas: Pig Iron Smelting N.Y., private communication and printout, Threatens thc Forests of Brazil's Ern February 10, 1989; Savoldelli, private com- Amazon Region," unpublished paper, April munication and printout, July 9, 1989, David 28, 1988, and on SUMEI, Companhia Vale Rinebolt, Director of Research, National do Rio Doce (CVRD), Brazil, "Internal Mem- Wood Energy Association, Arlington, Va., orandum Re: Steel Industry Along the Cara- privatc communicatior and printout, August jas RailwayThe Korf Metallurgy Technol- 14, 1989; DOE, EIA, Historical Plant (ost. Car- ogy Ltd. Viability Study," April 7, 1987. bon emissions based on Gleick et al., "Green- house-Gas Emissions"; Robert San Martin, 37. Williams and Porter, Power Plays; Peter Gleick et al., "Greenhouse-Gas Emissions DOE, "Environmental Emissions from En- from the Operation of Energy Facilities," ergy Technology Systems: The Total Fuel prepared for the Independent Energy Pro- Cycle," Spring 1989. Ethanol costs based on Lynn Wright, Oak Ridge National Labora- ducers Association, Sacramento, Calif., July 22, 1989. tory, private communication, August 25, 1989; Norman I-Vnman, SERI, Bou:der, 38. Patrick Knight, "Brazil's Alcohol Pro- Colo., private communication, August 25, gramme in Crisis. Imports Probably Needed 1989 Pollution costs based on Hohmeyer, in 1990," Energy Economist, May 1989, Sally Social Costs of Energy.. Carbon and pollution M. Kane and John M. Reilly, "Economics of avoidance cost., Worldwatch Institute esti- Ethanol Production in the United States," mates. USDA, ERS, March 1989; Migdon Segal, "Ethanol Fuel and Global Warming," Con- 41. Worldwatch Institute estimates based on Gray, private communication; Nishkian, gressional Research Service, Washington, D.C., March 6, 1989. private communication; Savoldelli, private communication; Rinebolt, private communi- 39. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), cation; Geller, private communication. Energy Information Administration (FIA). 42. "Canadian Energy Ministers Fail to Historical Plant Cost and Annual Production Ex- Agree on Reduction in Carbon Dioxide," In- penses for Selected Electric Plants 1987 (Wash- ternational Environment Reporter,, September ington,D.C.:1989); pollution costsare Worldwatch Institute estimates based on 1989. Olay Hohineyer, Social Costs of Energy Con- 43. IEA, Emission Controls in Electnnty Gener- sumption. External Effects of Electncity Generation atwn and Industry (Paris. OECD, 1988), Ken 4el 4 4 (200) Notes (Chapter 2)

Maize, "DOE Clean Coal Program Takes 51. Ibid., Roger W. Sant et al.,Cieaung Greenhouse Effect, En\ ironment Into Ac- Abundance. Ameruals Letht Cost Enew Stiategy count,"Eneigy Daily,March 17, 1989; "Re- (New York: McGraw-14in, 1984). searchers Say Methanol May NotFulfill Clean Air Hopes,"New York Tunes ,August I. 52. David H. Moskowitz, "Cutting the Na- 1989; David E. Gushee, "Carbon Dioxide tion's Electric Bill,"Issues in Science and nch- Einissions from Methanol as a Vehicle Fuel," nology, ,Spring 1989; News Rekase, SESCO, Congressional Research Service, Washing- Inc., West Springfield, Mass., Febi nary 14, ton, D.C., June 3, 1988. 1989. 44. Robed Reinhold, "Southern Califor- 53. Howard S. Geller, "Energy and Eco- ma Takes Steps to Curb its Urban Air Pollu- nomic Saving from National Appliance Effi- tion,"New York Tunes,March 18, 1989; Zorik ciency Standards," American Council for an Pirvey sian, South Coast Air Quality Manage- Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington, ment District, private conunumcation, Sep- D.C., 1987; FlaNin and Durning,Building on tember 12, 1989. Success.

45. A carbon tax ..,ould be proportional to 54. Bolinetal.,The GyeenhouseEject; the carbon content of Nanous fuels, for exam- Houghton et al., "The Flux of Carbon." ple, coal averages 24.12 kilograms carbon 55. Lester R. Brown et al., "Outlining a per gigajoule, oil -werages 19.94 kilograms Global Action Plan," in Lester R. Brown et (82 prcent of coal), and natural gas, 13.78 al.,State of the Mild 1989(New York: W.W. (57 percent of coal). from Marland, "Carbon Norton & Co., 1989). Dioxide Emission Rates"; Nicholas Wood, "Ridley Backs 'Carbon Tax' to Force Pollu- 56. Mark C. Trexler et al., "Forestry as a ters to Pa',"The Tunes(London), June 6, Response to Global Warming: An Analysis of 1989. the Guatemala Agroforestry and Carbon Se- 46. Schneider,Global Warming. questration Project," World Resources Insti- tute, June 1989. 47. "West German Social Democrats Out- line Possible Energy Changes,"Ewopean En- 57. Ibid.; Woddwatch Institute estimate ergy Remew,July 28, 1989. for levelized cost of offsetting carbon elms- skins based on Shepard Buchanan, "Costs of 48. Worldwatch institute estimate for car- Mitigating Greenhouse Effect for Generic bon tax revonues based on Marland et al., Coal-, Oil-, and (,as-Fired Plants" (draft), Estimates of CO2 Enu.ssmns;DOE,EIA, Monthly Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, Energy Review,March 1989. The proposed Ore., January 1989. carbon tax of 5.650 per kilogram of carbon would increase conventional coal-generated 58. Trexler etal.,"Forestry as aRe- electricity by 1.720 per kilowatt-hour in the sponse"; Postel and Heise,Refoiesling the United States. Earth; Setzer etal.,"Relate:rio de Ativi- dades." 49. DOE,BudgetMghhghts,FY1949 (Washington, D.C.: 1988);Christopher 59. Brown et al., "Global Action Plan"; Flavin and Alan Durning,Building on Success. Postel and Heise,Reforesting the Earth. The Age of Energy Efficiency,,Worldwatch Paper 60. World Bank, "Bank Policy and Opera- 82 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, March 1988). tional Options with Regard to Greenhouse Gases and Global Warning," Washington,

50. Flavin and Durning,Buddwg on Success. D.C., 1989.

IN 1N- . P-.iI.) Notes (Chapter 2) ( 201 ) 61. Poste! and Heise, Reforesting the Earth; Japan, June 1988; and on Houghton et al., Houghton et al., "The Flux of Carbon";John "The Flux of Carbon"; EPA Policy Options. Lancaster, "House Votes to Limit Logging in Tongass Forest," Wa.shington Post, July 14; 66 Douglas Cogan, Stonesin a Glass House 1989; Barry Johnstone and Mike Gismondi, CFCs and Ozone Depletion (Washington, D.C.: Investor Responsibility "A Forestry Boom in All' erta?" Probe Nst, Research Center, 1988); Pollock Shea, Protecting Life Spring 1989; Robert J.L. Hawke, PrimeMin- on Earth; ister of Australia, "Speech hy the PrimeMin- NASA, "Executive Summary of the Ozone ister: Launch of Statementon thc Envii on- Trends Panel," Washington, D.C., March 15, 1988. ment," Wentworth, N.S.W., Australia, July 20, 1989. 67. Cogan, Stones in a Glass House. 62. Worldwatch Institute estimatesbased 68. Kara Swisher, "4 Big Films Pledge to on Brad Karmen, USDA, private coinmunica- Cut Use of Ozone-Sapping CFCs," Washing- don, October 25, 1989;on Brown et al., ton Post , August 8, 1989; John Maggs, "Nis- "Global Action Plan"; and on Marland, pri- san to Stop Using Chlorofluorocarbons." vate communicatimi. jovrnal of Commerce, August 3, 1989; Ministry of Environment 63. R. Neil Sampson. "ReLeaf for Global , press release, Oslo, Norway, April 28, 1989; Anders Boeryd, National En- Warming," American Forests, November/De- e.-gy Administration of Sweden, "Options for cember 1988; Gregory Byrne, "Let 100 Mil- Constraining thc Emissions of CO2 in Swe- lion Trees Bloom," Science, October21, den, Including the Role of Forestry Bio- 1988. mass," undated; Ed H.T.M. Nijpels, Ministcr 64. Robert Reinhold, "Los Angeles Takes of Housing, Physical Planning and Environ- Step in Environmental Battle," New York ment of the Netherlands, Address at the In- Times, January 12, 1989; Dona Chambers, ternational Conference on the Changing At- Trees for Houston, private communication, mosphere, Toronto, June 30, 1988; Robert September 7, 1989; Karen Fedor, GlobalRe- Reinhold, "Frustrated by Global Ozone Leaf, American Forestry Association, Wash- Fight, California City Offers Own ?Ian," New ington, D.C., private communication, August York Times, Joly 19, 1989: "Helsinki Declara- 8, 1989. tion on the Protection of :lie Ozone Layer," International Environment Reporter, May 1989; 65. Country-specific CFCs' contribution Craig R. Whitney, "80 Nations Favor Banto to global greenhouse effec. is a Worldwatch Help Ozone," New York Times, May 3, 1989, estimate based on James E. Hansenet al., United Nations Environment Programme "Greenhouse Effect of Chlorofluorocarbons (UNEP), "Decisions Adopted by the Govern- and Other Trace Gases," Journal of Geophysical ingCouncilatItsFifteenthSe ssion," Research, in prcss; on "The Ozone Treaty: A Nairobi, May 25, 1989. Triumph for Ail," Update from State, U.S. De- 69. "More than partment of State, May/ june 1988; on Mar- 130 B:lls on Climate Change Introduced in 1989 in State Legisla- land et al., Estimates of CO2 Emissions; on tures," IVorld Climate Change Report, July 1989; Cynthia Pollock Shea, Protecting Life on Earth: Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Steps to Save the Ozone Layer, Worldwatch Environment, "Highlights of the National Paper 87 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- Environmental Policy Pla.1," The Nether- stitute, December 1988);on The Ad Hoc lands, undated; "National Environmental Group on Global Environmental Problems, Policy Plan Issued, Deep Pollution Cuts "Japan's Activities to Cope with Global Envi- Sought from Industries," International Envi- ronmental Problems," Enviromnent Agency, ronment Reporter, June 1989; Pier Vellinga, (202) Notes (Chapter 2) Ministry of Housing, Ph)sical Planning and ergy Policy Implications; "West German Social Environment, The Netherlands, pnvat com- Democrats Outline Possible Energy munication, August 28, 1989, Ministry of En- Changes"; "B:u:kground Information," First vironment, press release, Norway; Magnar Meeting,ResponseStrategiesWorkmg Norderhaug, Worl& atch InstituteNorden, Group;Bischoff,prk atecoimnunication; private communication, September 1, 1989, Serge Schmemann, "Environmentalists and Boeryd, "Options for Constraining Emis- Socialists Gain in European Vote," New York sions in Sweden"; The Energy Committee, Times, June 19, 1989, "Coalition of Greens, House of Commons, Energy Implication of the Other Leftists Gains Majority in EC Par- Greenhouse Effect (London: Her Majesty's Sta- liament," International Environment Reporter, tionery Office, July 1989); "Unilateral Action July 1989. Urged," Nature,July 20, 1989; United States, 72. U.S. Department of State, Unclassified congressional legislation, S. 201, S. 324, S. Cable, Summary of the IPCC Response 491, HR 1078; West Germany, "Background Strategies Working Group Sub-Groups (May Information,"FirstMeeting,Response 8-9) and Steering Committee (May I 0-12) in Strategies Working Group, Irtergovernmen- Geneva, May 16, 1989; Department of State, tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Wash- Unclassified Cable, Summary of the IPCC ington, D.C., January 30-February I ,1989; Meeting in Nairobi (June 28-30), July 6, Tracy Bischoff, Institute for European Envi- 1989; "Japan Reluctant on Early Control of ronmental Politics, Bonn, private communi- Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Paper Reveals," cation, August 24, 1989; California Energy International Environment Reporter, September Commission, The Impacts of Global Warming on 1989; "Canadian Energy Ministers Fail to California,InterimReport(Sacramento, Agree on Reduction in Carbon Dioxide": Calif.: 1989); Senate Bill 576, Enrolled, 65th Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, speech before the Oregon Legislative Assembly-1989 Regular Forty-second session of thc U.N. General As- Session; Margie Durery, Governor's Office, sembly, New York, October, 19, 1987; Jane Salem, Ore., private communication, Sep- Rosen,"Suddenly,Everyone'sTalking tember 1, 1989; George Hamilton, Gover- About the Weather," The Interdependent, Fall nor's Office, Montpelier, Vt., private commu- 1988. nication, September 6, 1989. 73 Summit of the Arch, "Economic Dec- 70. "National Energy Policy Act of 1989," laration." S. 324, U.S. Senate, introduced by Sen.ator Timothy Wirth, March 14, 1989; "Global 74. "UNEP/WMO Panel from 30 Coun- Warming Prevention Act," HR 1078, U.S. tries"; World Meteorological Organization House of Representatives, introduced by (WMO), WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Representative Claudine Schneider, Febru- Panel on Climate Change, Repot of the First ary 22. 1989. Session (Geneva: World ( Innate Programme Publications Series, 1988). 71. The Netherlands, Ministry of Hous- ing, "Highlights of the National Environ- 75. "UNEP/WMO Panel from 30 Coun- mental Policy Plan"; Ministry of Environ- tries"; WMO, Report of the First Session. ment, press release, Norway; Norderhaug, 76. Worldwatch Institute targets based on private communication; Boeryd, "Options Marland, private communication, and on for Constraining Emissions in Sweden"; Urban and Rose, World Population. "Swedish CO, Ruling Begi to BitcEuro- pean Energy Review June 16, 1989; Christine 77. Worldwatch Institute estimates based McGourty, "Thatcher Hosts Symposium," on Marland, private communication; on Nature, May 4, 1989; Energy Committee, Ln- Houghton et al., "The Flux of Carbon"; on

9 .7 0-4r Notes (Chapters 2 and 3) (203 Urban and Rose, Wai Id Population; andon BP, 3. FAO, Piodnction Yembook 1988 (unpub- BP Statistical Review. lished printout) (Rome: 1989). 78. Woddwatch Instituteprojections 4. Ibid.; United Nations, Depadmentof based on Mar land, private conunumeation, International Economic and Social Aflairs, and on Houghton et al., "The Fluxof Car- World Population Prospects 1988 (Neu York: bon"; "China sProblem: Economic Bal- 1989). ance," Oil and Gas Journal, August 22, 1988. 5. G. Levine et al., "Irrigation in Asiaand the Near East in the 1990s: Problems 79. Daniel Lashof, Natural ResourcesDe- and fense Council, Washington, D.C.,private Prospects," prepared for the lnigation Sup- communication, September II, 1989; United port Project for Asia and the Near East at the Nations Secretariat, "Long-Range Global request of the Asia/Neareast Bureau, U.S. AgencyforInternational Population Projections as Assessed in 1980," Development (AID), August 1988. Populatwn Bulletin of the United Nations (New York: 1983). 6. Indiafigures from Mark Svendsen, "Sources of Future Growth in Indian Irri- 80. Centrefor Our Common Future, gated Agriculture," presentedto the Plan- "Background Information." ning Wod. ',op on Policy Related Issuesin Indian Irrigation, Ootacamund, Tamil Nadu, 81. Julie VanDomelen, Power to Spaie.The India, April 26-28, 1988. China estimate World Bank and Electricity Conservation (Wash- from Daniel Gunaratnam, China Agriculture ington, D.C.: Osborn Center, 1989);Peter Operations Division, World Bank, Washing- Miller, Environmental Defense Fund,Wash- ton, D.C., private communication, June 20, ington, D C,private communication, Sep- 1989; supporting figures and Mexico esti- tember 6, 1989; Barber Conable,President, mate from Robert RepettoSkimming the World Bank, "De. elopment and thc Envi- irater. Rent-Seeking and the Perfonnance of Public ronment: A Global Balance," presentedto Irrigation Systems (Washington, D.C.: World Conference on Global Env ironment and Resources Institute, 1986), Brazil figure from Human Reponse Toward Sustainable De- Jean-Louis Gmnsz, Braid Agriculture Opera- velopment, Tokyo, September 11, 1989. tions Division, World Bank, Washington, D.C., private communication, June 7,1989; see also Rangeley. "Irrigation and Dtainage Chapter 3. Saving Water for Agricul- in the World"; Montague Yudelman,"Sus- ture tamable and Equitable Developmentin Irri- gated Environments," in H. Jeffrey Leonard 1, Sandra Posta 1Vnter Rethinking Alanage. et al., Environment and the Poor, Development ment in an Age of Scarcity, Worldwatch Paper Stiategies for a Comm Agenda (New Bruns- 62 (Washington, ff.C.: Worldwatch institute, wick, N.J.: Transaction Books, 1989). December 1984); W. Robert Rangeley, 'II ci- gation and Drainage m the World,'" in Wayne 7. Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drainagein R. Jordan, ed., Milo and Irate, Policyin World the World"; Thayer Scudder, "Consei ration Food Supplies (College Station, Tex.: Texas Vs. Development: River Basin Projects in A&M University Press, 1987). Africa," Environment, March 1989; FAO,Con- sultation on Irrigation in Africa (Rome: 1987). 2. Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drainage in 8. Hubertus von Pogrell, Latin American the World"; U.N. Food and Agriculture Or- AgricultureOperationsDivision,World ganization (FAO), Pioduction lewbook 1987 Bank, Washington, D.C., private communica- (Rome: 1988). tion, May 19, 1989; Ginnsz, privatecommu-

(1 4el 4 h (204) Notes (Chapter 3) nication, Yudehnan, "Sustainable and Equi- 19. Thin I larris, "A Valley Filled %Ith Se- table Development." lenium," Sacramento Bee , July 16, 1989, The Wilderness Society, "Ten Most Endangered 9. Possibility of rising prices and dwin- National Wildlife Refugees," Washington, dling stocks from Lester R. Brown, The D.C., October 1988; see also Eliot Marshall, Changing World hod Prospect The Nineties and "High Selenium Levels Confirmed in Six Beyond , Worldwatch Paper 85 (Washington, States." Science , January 10, 1986; and Cass D.C.: Worldwa _a Institute, October 1988). Peterson, "Toxic Time Bomb Ticks in San 10. Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drainage in Joaquin Valley," Washington Post March 19, the World." 1989. 1 1. Li Zhuoyan and Gao Jin'an, "Neglect 20. Harris, "A Valley Filled with Sele- of Water Projects Hurts Farmland," China mum"; National Research Council, laiganon- Daily, March 10, 1989; U.S. Department of Induced IVater Qualit) TholdemsWhat Can Be Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Learned from the San Jong= ralky Expmence Service(ERS), "USSR: Agriculture and (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, Trade Report," Washington, D.C., 1989. 1989); San loaquin Valley Drainage Pro- gram, Prehminaiy Planning Alternatives for Solv- 12. 150 million figure from M.E. Jensen et ing Agncultural Drainage and Drainage-Related al., "Irrigation Trends in World Agricul- Thoblems in the San Joaquin ralley (Sacramento, ture," in B.A. Stewart and D.R. Nielsen, eds., Calif.: 1989). mgation of Agricultural Crops (Madison, Wisc.: Amencan Society of Agronomy, in press). 21. Clifford Dickason, "Improved Esti- mates of Groundwater Mining Acreage," 13. Ibid. Journal of Sod and Water Conservation, May- 14. Manzur Ahmad, "Water as a Con- June 1988; Clifford Dickason, USDA, ERS, straint to World Food Supplies," in Jordan, Washington, D.C., private communication, Water and Wale; Pohcy. . October 19, 1989; Comer Tuck, Texas Water Development Board, Austin, Tex., private 15. Ashok K. Mitra, "Underutilisation Re- communication, September 14, 1989. visited: Surface Irrigation in Drought Prone Areas of Western Maharashtra," Econonnc and 22. "Advance Census Reports Show Irri- Political Weekly, April 26, 1986; see also Rob- gauon Rebound," ,4gruulfural Outlook, May ert Chambers, "Food and Water as if Poor 1989. People Mattered: A Professional mevolu- non," in Jordan, ed., Water and Water Polwy. 23. James Nickum and John Dixon, "Envi- ronmenta Problems and Economic Modern- 16. Irrigation estimate made by multiply- ization," m Charles E. Morrison and Robert ing net irrigated area (fr in FAO) of 227 mil- F. Dernberger, Focus China in the Reform Era , lion hectares by average per-hectare water Asia-Pacific Repoli 1989 (Honolulu: East- use of 11,400 cubic meters, and multiplying West Center, 1989); reference to famil Nadu that total by 1.3 to account for conveyance in Carl Widstrand, ed., Water Conflicts and Re- and storage losses. This yields 3,364 cubic sear,h Pnonnes (Elmsford, N.Y.: Pergamon kilometers. Press, 1980); Raj Chengappa, "India's Water 17. V.A. Kovda, "Loss of Productive 1nd Crisis," India Today, May 31, 1986, excerpted Due to Salinization," Amin o, Vol. 12, No. 2, in World Press Review, August 1986. 1983. 24. Philip P. Micklin, "The Water Man- 18. Yudelman, "Sustainable and Equita- agement Crisis in Soviet Central Asia," final ble Deveiopmei mport to the National Council for Soviet and

'40 A 1.) Notes (Chapter 3) (205) East European Research, Washington, D C.,31. Council on Fawn onmental Qiiality, February 1989. Executive Office of the President, "Findings 25. Mick lin, "The 'Water Management and Recommendati as on a Referral from Crisis in Soviet Central Asia"; data for figure the Environmental Protection Agenc) Con- also from LB. Vol'ftsun et al., "Concerning cerning the Proposal by the Department of t-t.. Changes in the Structure of the Use of the Interior's Bureau of Reclamationto River Flow in the Irrigated Zone of themu Renew Long-Term Water Contracts for the Dar'ya and Syr Dar'yaBasins,"l'oanyye Orange Cove and Other Friant Unit Irriga- Resursy, No. 3, 1988; 1987 estimate from tion Districts of the Central Valley Project in Philip P. Mick lin, Western Michigan Univer- California," Washington, D.C., June 29, sity, Kalamazoo, Mich., private communica- 1989; Natural Resources Defense Council, tion, June 6, 1989, "Environmentalists and Fishing Groups An- nounce Lawsuit to Block Federal Water Con- 26. Mick lin,"The Water Management tracts," press release, December 21, 1988; Crisis in Soviet Central Asia"; Philip P. Mic- "Federal Irrigation Contracts Debated," U S. k1M, "Desiccation of the Aral Sea: A Water Water News, August 1989; "Calif. Contract Management Disaster in the Soviet Union," Renewal Sets Precedent for Federal Leases," Science, September 2, 1988; Mick lin, private U S. Water News, May 1989. commumcation, October 23, 1989. 32. The six East African countries referred 27. Mick lin,"The Water Management to are Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Crisis in Soviet Central Asia": cost estimate Somalia, and Tanzania; Mahn Fiaenmark, from Mick lin, private communication, Octo- "The Mas..:.e Water Scarcity Now Threaten- ber 23, 1989. ing AfricaWhy Isn't it Being Addressed?" 28. Juoith Perera, "Kremlin Moves to Save Anibu r, Vol. 18, No. 2, 1989; grain imports the Aral Sea," Ne711 Scientist, November 26, from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Sen ice 1988; Mick lin, "The Water Management Cri- (FAS), World Rice Reference Tables (unpub- sis in Soviet Central Asia"; cost estimate lished printout) (Washington, D.C.. July from Mick lin, private communication, Octo- 1988); USDA, FAS, World Wheat and coarse ber 23, 1989. Grains Reference Tables (unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C: August 1988). 29. Barbara Crossette, "Water, Water Everywhere? Many Now Say 'Nor," The New 33. Joyce R. Starr and Daniel C. Stoll, I'S. York Times, October 7, 1989; Loii Udall, Envi- Foreign Policy on Water Resources In the Middle ronmental Defense Fund (EDF), "The Envi- East (Washington, D.C.. Center for Strategic ronmental and Social Impacts of the World & International Studies, 1987), Joyce R. Stair Bank Financed Sardar Sarovar Dam in and Daniel Stoll, eds., The Politics of Scar- Intha," Testimony before the Subcommittee city. Water in the Ahddle East (Boulder, Colo.: on Natural Resources, Agricultural Research Westview Press, 1988), population figme cal- and Environment, Committee on Science, culated from Population Reference Bureau, Space and Technology, U.S. House of Repre- 1989 nrld Populatwn Data Shtet (Washing- sentatives, Washington, D.C., October 24, ton, D.C.; 1989). 1989; Omar Sattaur, "India's Troubled Wa- ters," New Scientist, May 27, 1989; Baba 34. U.S. AID, Office of Irrigation and Amte, Cry, the Beloved Narmada (Chandrapur, Land Development,"lingationlitiefmg Maharashtra, India: Maharo0 Sewa Samm, Paper," Cairo, April 1987; U.S. AID, Agi icul- 1989). tural Resources Directorate. "Agricultural Briefing Paper," Cairo, December 1988; 30. Scudder, "River Basin Projects in Joyce R. Starr, -G1obal Water Scarcity: 1 he Africa." Middle East as a Case Study," Testimony

J..'420 (206) Notes (Chapter 3 ) before Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Arizona Cooperatne Extension Ser. ice, "Ex- AgriculturalResearch and Ernaronment, tension Project Plan. Reclamation of Retired Committee on Science, Space and Technol- Farmland," Tucson, Ariz., Noy ember 1986; ogy, U.S. House of Representatives, Febru- Gary C. Woodard et ai., "The Water Trans- ary 28, 1989. fer Process in Arizona: Analysis of Impacts and Legislative Options," College of Busi- 3 i. Siz-ar and Stoll, S Foreign Policy on ness and Public Administration, University of Water Resources;Starr and Stoll,Politics of Scar- Arizona, fucson, April 1988. aty;Alan Cowell, "Next Flashpoint in Middle East: Water,".Vew York Times ,April 16, 1989, 41. Chinese Research Team on Water Re- World Bank prediction inStarr, "Global sources Policy and Management in Beijing- Water Scarcity." Tianjin Region,Report on Water Resources Pol- ity. 36. James E.Nickurn, "Beijing's Rurai Water Use," pr ed for East-West Center 42. William L. Jackson et al., "An Interdis- North China Proj,, Honolulu, March1987, ciplinary Process for Protecting Instream The Chinese Research Team for Water Re- Flows,"Journalof Soil and Water Conservation, sources Policy and Management in Beijing- March/April 1989; "N.M. Still Has No In- Tianjin Region of China,Report on Watei Re- stream Law," t:S.Water News ,May 1989; sources Poluy andAlanagenientfor the James Huffman, "Instream Water Use: Public Beying-Tianjin Region of China(Beijing: Sino- and Private Alternatives," in Terry L. Ander- US Cooperative Research Project on Water son, ed.,Water Rights: Scarce Resource Alloca- Resources Policy and Management, 1987); tion, Bureaucracy, and the Environment(Cam- "Water Rules Tightened; Fines Levied," bridge,Mass.:BallingerPublishing Co., China Daily,May 18, 1989; Li Hong, "Beijing 1983); Philip C. Metzger and Jennifer A. Set To Tackle Water Thirst,"China Daily. Haverkamp, "Instream Flow Protection: Ad- October 17, 1989; North China Plain grain aptation to Intensifying Demands," Conser- output from Frederick W. Crook,Agrtcultural vation Foundation, Washington, D.C., June Statisticsof thePeople'sRepublic of Cluna, 1984. 1949-86 (Washington, D.C.: USDA, ERS, 43. Ralph W. Johnson, "Public Trust Doc- 1988). trine Challenges Appropriation,"U.S. Water 37. Chinese Research Team for Water Re- News,July 1988. sources Policy and Management in Beijing- 44. For general background on global Tianjin Region,Repoa on Water Resources Pol- warming, see Stephen H. Schneidek ,Global icy;Nickum and Dixon, "Environmental Warming A?e We Entenng ibo Greenhouse Cen- Problems and Economic Modernization"; tury?(San Francisco; Sierra Club Books, Nickum, "Beijing's Rural Water Use." 1989). 38. For a good ovemew of markets, see 45. Marshall E. Moss and Harry F. Lins, the interview with Steven J. Shupe by Nancy "Water Resources in the Twenty-First Cen- Zeilig, "Face to FaceWater Marketing: An turyA Study of the Implications of Climate 0Yerview,"Journal of the Amencan Water Works Uncei tamty," U.S. Geological Survey Circu- Association,March 1988. lar No. 1030, 1989; Norman J. Rosenberg et 39. "Conservation and Drought Strate- al., "Climate Change, CO2 Enrichment and Evapotranspiration," in American Associa- gies,"IVale, Market Update,December 1988. tion for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 40. Elizabeth Chcecluo,Wale, Farming The Chnuitic l'anability, Climate Change, and the Plan- Promise and Problems of Waie? Dansfers u,in- mng and Management of U.S. Water Resources ona(Tucson. Uniyersity of Arizona, 1988); (New York. John Wiley & Sons, in press).

4 Notes (Chapter 3) (207) 46. Peter H. Gleick, "Climate Change and and Transportation. U.S. Senate, Washing- California: Past, Present. and Future Vul- ton, D.C., May 8, 1989. nerabilities." in M.H. Glantz, ed.,Societal Re- sponses to Regional Climate Change. Forecasting By 54 Repetto,Skimming the Water. Analogy(Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 55. E. Phillip LeVeen and Laura B. King, 1988); Peter H. Gleick,"Regional Hy- Turning off the Tap on Federal Water Subsidies, drologic Consequences of Increases in At- Vol. 1 (San Francisco: Natural Resources De- mospheric CO2 and Other Trace Gases,"Cli- fense Council and California Rural Legal As- matic Change,Vol. 10, 1987; John C. Schaake, sistance Foundation, 1985); U.S. Department "From Climate to Flow," in AAAS, Climatic of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation,1987 Variability. Summary Statistics,Vol. I, Water, Land, and 47. Gleick, "Regional Hydrologic Conse- dated Data (Denver: 1988); Michael R. quences"; Schaake, "From Climate to Flow." Moore and Catherine A. McGuckin, "Pro- gram Cr fi Production and Federal Irriga- 48. Schaake, "From Climate to Flow." tion Water," in USDA, ERS,ilornlioral Re- sources:Cropland, IVater, and 49. The work of Stockton and Boggessis Conservation summarized in Roger R. Revelle and Paul E. Situation and Outlook Report,Washington, Waggoner, "Effects of a Carbon Dioxide-In- D.C., September 1988. duced Climatic Change on Water Suppliesin 56. "Texas Irrigation Use Declines,"US. the Western United States," in National Re- IVater News,April 1989; Soviet figure from search Council,Changing Climate(Washing- Micklin, private communication, October 13, ton, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1983). 1989; for descriptions of Israeli water-saving Irrigated area calculation asstnesan annual measures, see "Israel's Water Policy: A Na- consumptive demand of 5,500 cubic meters tional Commitment," in Office of Technol- per hectare; for additional explanation of this ogy Assessment, Irater-RelatedTechnologies for analysis see, Sandra Postel,Altering the Ear th's Sustainable Agricidture in Arid/Semiarid Lands: Chemistry: Assessing the Risks,Worldwatch Selected Foreign Experience(Washington, D.C.: Paper 71 (Washington D.C.: Worldwatch In- U.S. Government Printing Office, May 1983). stitute, July 1986). 57. Romana P. de los Reyes and Sylvia Ma. 50. Dean F. Peterson and Andrew A. Kel- G. Jopillo,An Evaluation of the Philippine Par- ler, "Irrigated Agriculture," in AAAS,Cli- ticipatory Communal Irrigation Program(Quezon matic Vanabiltty. City: Institute of Philippine Culture, Ateneo de Manila University, 1986). 5.Ibid. 58. Repetto, 52. Ibid. According to FAO, therewere Skimming the IVater;Robert 1,474 million hectares of cropland worldwide Wade, "The Management of Irrigation Sys- in 1986. Subtracting from this figure the es- tems: How to Evoke Trust and Avoid Di- lemma," timated 250 million hectares of irrigated land World Development,Vol. 16, No. 4, gives a total of 1,224 million hectares of 1988. rainfed cropland; 5 percent of this is 61.2 59. See Jacl Silliman and Roberto Lenton, million hectares. "Irrigation and the Land-Poor," in Jordan, 53. James E. Hansen, NASA Goddard In- Water and Weter Policy;FAO,Consultation on stitute for Space Studies, "Modeling Green- Irrigation in Africa. house Climate Effects," testimony before 60. Sandra Postel,Conserving Water: The Subcommittee on Science, Tedinology, and Untapped Alternative,Worldwatch Paper 67 Space, Committee on Commeru, Science (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, (208) Notes (Chapters 3 and 4 )

Septembet 1985), World Bank.Vettoe, Grass 70. "Farm Grows Salt-Tolerant Crops." iVetivena uzanwides). A Method of l'egetatwe Soil LS. Wat,News.September 1988; Charnóck, and iifoisture Conservalwn(New Delhi: 1987); "Plants with a Taste for Salt." John C. Greenfield, seminar on the vetiver system presented at the World Bank, Wash- ington. D.C., August 4, 1988. Chapter 4. Feeding the World in the Nineties 61. "Watershed Management in State Im- pressivc,"Deccan Herald,January6,1989 I. U.N. World Food Council (WFC), "The Global State of Hunger and Malnutrition: 62. Analysis by Valmik Ahuja, EDF, in 1988 Report,"14thMinisterialSession, Peter Miller, EDF. "An Alternative Develop- Nicosia, Cyprus, March 24, 1988. ment Strategy to the Sardar Sarovar Dam," Testimony before the Subcommittee on Nat- 2. Grain stocks from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Foreign Agricultural ural Resources, Agricultural Re..-arch and World Grain Shuahon and Out- Environment, Committee on Science, Space Service (FAS), Washington, D.C., October 1989; grain ,d Technology. U.S. House of Representa- look , price changes calculated in constant dollars, r!s, Washington, D.C., October 24, 1989; t, using prices in International Monetary Fund set. also "Sardar Sarovar Project. An Eco- (IMF),Internahow.: Financial Statistics,Wash- nomic, Environmental and Human Disas- ington, D.C., various issues, and deflators in ter," Narmada Bachao Andolan, Bombay, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of 1989. Economic Analysis,Survey of Current Business, 63. "Irrigation is Key to Bangladesh Food Washington, D.C., various issues. Needs,"World Wale, , M 1989; IFAD quota- 3. USDA, FAS,World Grain Situation and tion from "Asia's Green Revolution: Pause or Outlook, October 1989. Set back," /lunge,Notes, May1989. 4. Francis Urban and Philip Rose, World 64. FAO.Consultation on Irrigation in Africa. Population by Country and Region, 1950-86, and Projections to2050 (Washington, D.C.: USDA, 65. Charles F. Hutchinso-, "Will Climate Change Complicate African Famine?" Re- Economic Research Service (ERS), 1988). winces,Spring 1989, 5. Estimate of cropland affected by soil erosion from Lester R. Brown and Edward C. 66. Scudder. "RiverBasinProjectsin Wolf, Sot/Erosion: Quiet Crisis in the World Eeon- Africa " oiny ,Worldwatch Paper 60 (Washington, 67. See Sandra Poste! and Lori Heise,Re- D.C.:WorldwatchInstitute,September forestingthe EmilWorldwatch Paper 83 1984). (Washington, D.C.: Woildwatch Institute, 6. Robert J.L. Hawke, Prime M:nister of April 1988). Australia, "Speech by the Prime Minister: 68. Mid I. Shoval, "The Devellpment of Launch of Statement on the Environment," Wentworth, N.S.W., Australia, July 20, 1989; Water Reuse in Israel,"Ambu ),Vol. ' 6, No. 4, Pravdacited in Yuri Markish, "Soviet Envi- 1987. ronmental Problems Mount," CPE Agriculture 69. Anne Charnock, "Plants with a Taste Report(Washington, D.C.: USDA, ERS), for Salt,"New Scientist,December 1.,1988; May/June1989;GovernmentofIndia, Brian Forster, "Wheat Can Take cn More "Strategies, Structures, Policies; National than a Pinch of Salt,"New Scientist,December WastelandsDevelopmentBoard,"New 3, 1988. Delhi, mimeographed, February 6, 1986. Notes (Chapter 4 ) (209 ) 7. Annual soil erosion figure is authors' process of fuels% ood consumption, defozesta- estimate, based on Brown and Wolf, Soil Ero- tion, and loss of soil nutrients is described in swn; assuming an average topsoil depth of 18 Kenneth Newcombe, An Economic Justification centimeters, 156 tons of soil per hectare-cen- for Rural Afforestation: The Case of Ethiopia, En- timeter, and 24 million hectares each in corn, ergy Department Paper No. 16 (Washington, wheat, and soybean land, there are 202 bil- D.C.: Woild Bank, 1984), and in Kenneth lion tons of soil on such land in the United Newcombe, "Household Energy Supply: States; area figures are typical for the eighties The Enei gy Crisis That Is Here To Stay!" and are from USDA, ERS, World Grain Har- presented to the World Bank Senior Policy vested Area, Production, and Yield, 1950-88 (un- SeminarEnergy,Gaborone.Botswana, publishedprintout)(Washington,D.C., March 18-22, 1985. 1989) (for wheat and corn), and from USDA, FAS, World Oilseed Situation and Market High- 15. The results of the U.S. National Crop lights, September 1989 (for soybeans). Loss Assessment Network study are discussed in James J. MacKeazie and Mohamed 8. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organiza- T. El-Ashry, Ill Winds. Airborne Pollution's Toll tion (FAO), Protect and Produce: Soil Conserva- on Trees and Crops (Washington, D.C. World tion for Development (Rome: 1983). Resources Institute, 1988). 9. Gbdebo Jonathan Osemeobo, "The 16. Ibid. Human Causes of Forest Depletion in Nige- ria," Environmentai Conservation, Spring 1988. 17. Ibid. 10. Leon Lyles, "Possible Effects of Wind 18. 1987grain production data from Erosion on Soil Productivity," Journal of Soil USDA, ERS, World Grain; 1987 was the most and Water Conservation, November/December recent year for which data are available in 1975. which none of the regions or countries listed I I. Figuresarerounded;calculations experienced drought-reduced harvests. based on unrounded figures. 19. Worldwide ozone depletion from Na- 12. Irrigated area planted in grain is au- tional Aeronautics and Space Administra- thors' estimate; yield per hectare of irrigated tion, "Executive Summary of the Ozone grain land is authors' estimate, based on data Trends Panel," Washington, D.C., March 15, in USDA, ERS, World Grain. 1988; relationship between ozone levels and ultraviolet radiation from William Booth, 13. Richard M. Weintraub, "Bangladesh "Severe Ozone Depletion Likely Again This Braces for More Flooding as Casualties Year," Washington Post, October 6, 1989; ef- Climb," Washington Post, September 7, 1988. fect of increased ultraviolet radiation on scy- 14. Current Madhya Pradesh population bean yields in Alan H. Teramura and N. S. is authors' estimate based on 1981 popula- Murali, "Intraspecific Differences in Growth tion and growth rate in Frank B. Hobbs, De- and Yield or Soybeans Exposed to Ultravio- mographic Estimates, Projections, and Selected So- let-B Radiation Under Greenhouse and Field cial Charactenstics of the Population of India, CIR Conditions," Environmental and Experimental Staff Paper No. 21 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Botany, Vol. 26. No. 1, 1986. Bureau of the Census, Center for Interna- 20. USDA, FAS, World Grain Situation and tional Research, 1986); Madhya Pradesh fuel Outlook , October 1989. consumption from Centre for Science and Environment, The State of India's Environment, 21. James E. Hansen et al., "Global Cli- 1984-85 (New Delhi: 1985); the spiraling mate Changes as Forecast by the GISS 3-D r :4 (210) Notes (Chapter 4) Model," Journal of Geophysical Research, Au- curieutly enrolled in supply management gust 20, 1988. programs (not including Conservation Re- serve land). 22. For the effects of high temperatures on corn pollination, see R.H. Shaw, "Esti- 28. Fertilizer consumption in 1950 from mates of Yield Reductions in Corn Caused by Paul Andrilenas, U.S. Department of Agricul- Water and Temperature Stress," in C.D. ture, Washington, D.C., privat e communica- Raper and P.J. Kranter, eds., Crop Reactions to tion, May 9, 1986; 1989 is authors' estimate. Water and Temperature Stresses in Humid, Temper- 29. Data on adoption of high-yielding ate Climates (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, wheats in India and Mexico from Dana G. 1983) and R.F. Dale, "Temperature Pertur- Dalrymple, Development and Spread of High- bations in the Midwestern and Southeastern Yielding Wheat Vaneties in Developing Countnes United States Important for Corn Produc- (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Agency for Interna- tion," in ibid.; for effects on rice, see Alan H. tional Development, 1986); corn in U.S. from Teramura, Testimony before the Committee Lester R. Brown, Increasing World Food Output , on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry and Foreign Agriculture Economic Report No. the Subcommittee on Foreign Operations of 25 (Washington, D.C.: USDA, ERS, 1965); the Committee on Appropriations, U.S. Sen- rices in Indonesia fro:.1 Dana G. Dalrymple, ate, Washington, D.C., May 10, 1989. Development and Spread of High-Yielding Rice l'a- 23. Annual addition to irrigated area is au- netiesinDrileloping Countries(Washington, thors' estimate based on recent growth rates D.C.: U.S. Agency for International Develop- derived from data in FAO, 1988 Production ment, 1986). Yearbook (unpublishedprintout)(Rome: 30. U.S. fertilizer consumption 1956-81 1989); annual growth in fertilizer use is au- from USDA, Agncultural Statistics (Washing- thors' estimate based on recent trends in ton, D.C.: Government Printing Office, an- FAO data. nual, 1967 and 1987 issues); U.S. fertilizer 24. Historical data on cultivated area from consumption since 1981 from Fertilizer Insti- USDA, ERS, World Gram; idled U.S. cropland tute, Fertilizer Facts and Figures 1989 (Wash- from Brad Karmen, USDA, Washington, ington, D.C.: 1989); 1989 is authors' estimate D.C., private communication, October 25, based on ibid.; Edward C. Cook, "First Quar- 1989. ter Economic Results and Agriculture," CPE Agnculture Report , Washington, D.C., USDA, 25. FAO, Protect and Produce; cropland area ERS, May/June 1989. from USDA, ERS, World Gram . 31. In 1986 (the most recent year for 26. USDA, ERS, World Gram; area en- which data are available in which none of the rolled in Conservation Reserve from Kar- three countries experienced a major crop men, private communication; reduced Con- failure), Chinese and Indian farmers pro- servation Reserve funding from Thomas E. duced 17.8 and 16.1 kilograms of grair. , re- Kuhnle, Natural Resources Defense Council, spectively, for every kilogram of fertilizer Washington, D.C., private communication, they used, while U.S. farmers produced 17.6 October 3, 1989. kilograms of grain for the same amount of fertilizer; Worldwatch estimate3, based on 27. 1980 grain area per capita derived USDA, ERS, World Gram, and on FAO, FAO from harvested area in USDA, ERS, World Quarterly Bulletin of Stattstics, Vol.1, No. 3, Grain and from population in Urban and 1988. Rose, 1Vorld Population; 1990 is authors' estimate, based on above sources, assuming a 32, Jerome Mintz, inl'enture magazine, return to production of all U.S. grain land quoted in Jack Ralph Kloppenburg, First the Notes (Chapter 4 ) (211) Seed- The Pohtical Economy of Plant Biotechnology, in Research and Infot mation Sstem for the 1492-2000(New York: Cambridge Univer- Non-Aligned and Other Developing Coun- sity Press, 1988); USDA, FAS,World Gram tries,Biotechnology Revolution and the Thud Situation and Outlook,Washington, D.C., July Iroild(Nevi Delhi. 1988); M.S. Swammathan. 1989. "Biotechnology and Susta.nable Agricul- 33. Kloppenburg,First the Seed. ture," in ibid.; Nyle C. Brady, "Application of Biotechnology and Other New Technologies 34. Jane E. Brody, "Quest for Lean Meat in Developing-Country Agriculture,"in Mol- Prompts New Approach," NewYork Times, nar and Kinnucan,Biotechnology and the New April 12, 1988; Debora MacKenzie, "Science Agricultural Revolution;Peter R. Day, "The Milked for All It's Worth,"New Scientist, Impact of Biotechnology on Agricultural Re- March 24,1988; CharlesC.Muscoplat, search," in Martin Gibbs and Carla Cailson, "Commercialization and Research Perspec- eds.,Crop Productivity Research Imperatwes Re- tives for Vaccines," in Joel I. Cohen, ed., visited,proceedings of conference held at Strengthening Collaboration in Biotechnology In- Boyne Highlands Inn, October 13-18, 1985, ternatmnal Agricultwal Resemch and the Private and at Airhe House, December 11-13, 1985. Sector(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Agency for In- ternational Development, 1989); George E. 41. U.S. biotechnology iesearch spending Seideljr., "Geneticists in the Pasture,"Tech- estimates from John Chirichiello, National nology Review.April 1989. Science Foundation, private communication, October 6, 1989; for discussion of the direc- 35. Joseph J. Molnar and Henry Kinnucan, tion of federal biotechnology research fund- "Introduction: The Biotechnology Revolu- ing, see Kloppenburg,First the Seed;industry tion," in Joseph J. Molnar and Henry Kinnu- supports an estimated 16-24 percent of U.S. can, eds.,Biotechnology and the New Agricultural university biotechnology research, accoi ding Revolution,AAAS Selected Symposium 108 to David Blumenthal et al., "University-In- (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press,1989); dustry Research Relationships in Biotechnol- Inter-Amencan Development Bank,Economic ogy: Implications for the University,"Science, and Social Progress in Latin America. 1988 Report June 13, 1986 (cited in Kloppenburg,Fos! the (Washington, D.C.: V.;88). Seed);for furthcr discussion of industry fund- 36. Livestock, poultry, and fish and other ing of university research, see Martin Ken- aquatic animals feed originally upon plants; ney, Biotechnology TheUniveisity-Industrial Comple.. Kloppenburg,First the Seed (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1986). 37. Norman E.Borlaug,"Conference Comments: Biotechnology and World Food 42 CGIAR budget from Hei ni Deboeck, Demand," in Cohen,Stiengthening Collabora- CGIAR Secretariat, Washington, D.C., pi i- tion in Biotechnology vatecommunication,October6,1989; CGIAR biotechnology spending estimate 38. Kloppenburg,First the Seed;Jean L. from Kern Wright, CGIAR Secretariat, Marx, "Foreign Gene Transferredinto Washington, D.C., pnvate communication, Maize,"Science,April 8, 1988. November 16, 1989.

39. Kloppenburg,First the Seed;Michael 43. Kloppenburg,hist the Seed;Calestous Upton with Richard Longhurst,New Seeds m,d Jima,The Gene 1lunteis. Biotechnology and the Poor People (Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins Sciamble fa> Seeds(Princeton, N .Pi mccton University Press, 1989). University Press, 1989).

40. Nagesh Kumar, "Biotechnology Revo- 44. Jack DoyleIltemedHarvest .ignculture, lution and the Third World: An Overview," Genetics, and the Fate of the World's Food Supply (214) Notes (Chapter 4 ) (New York. Viking Penguin, 1985), Kloppen- 54. Chinese fertilizer consumption from burg, First the Seed, Lipton, New Seeds and Poo, FAO Fertilize,Yearbook arious years, grain People. production from USDA, ERS, World Grain.

45. SandraPoste!,DefusingtheTovics 55. USDA, ERS, USSR Agncullure and Trade Threat.ConlroffingPesticidesandIndietnal Report, Washington, D.C., May 1989. iVastes, Worldwatch Paper 79 (Washington, 56. Canadian and Soviet population from D.C.:Worldwatchinstitute,September Population Reference Bureau (PRB), 1989 1987); Doyle, Aar, cc/ Harvest . World Population DataSheet(Washington, 46. Lipton, New Seeds and Poor People . D.C.: 1989). 47. Increased milk production of BGH- 57. USDA, ERS, World Gunn. treatedcows from MacKenzie, "Science 58. Philip P. Micklin, "The Water Man- Milked for All It's Worth"; BGH cost esti- agement Crisis in Soviet Central Asia," final mate from Richard Fallert, USDA, ERS, Oc- report to the National Council for Soviet and tober 26, 1989. East European Research, Washington, D.C., 48. Joel I. Cohen, U.S. Agency for Inter- February 1989 national Development, Washington, D.C., 59. A. Kashtanov, cited in Markish, "So- private communication, September 22, 1989; viet Enviromnental Problems Mount." Roger N Beachy, "Genetic Transformation for Virus Resistance. Needs and Opportuni- 60. Ibid., Soviet grain output from USDA, ties in Developing Countries," in Cohen, ERS, World Gunn; fertilizer use from FAO, StrengtheningCollaborationinBiotechnology; FAO Fertilizer Yearbook, 1, anous years, and FAO Roger N. Beachy and Claude Fauquet, "Cas- Quarterly Bulletin of Statistics, Vol.1, No. 2, sava Viruses and Genetic Engineering," In- 1988. ternational Cassava-Trans Project, Washing- ton University, St. Louk, Mo., undated. 61. Roughly 25 percent of all Soviet investment goes to agriculture, whereas 10 49. Kloppenburg, Fust the Seed. percent or less is typical of most other nations, according to Edward C. Cook, USDA, 50. Kenney, Biotechnology. The Unweisity-In- ERS Washington, D.C.. private communica- dustnal Complex. tion, October 25, 1989; Soviet output gains 51. Donald L. Plucknett et aL, "Future from USDA, ERS, World Grain . Role of the IARCs in the Application of' Bio 62. PRB, 1989 World Population Data Sheet. technology in Developing Countries," in Gj. Persley, ed., Agncidtural Biotechnology: Oppor- 63. USDA, ERS, World Grim . tunities fo, International Development (Walling- 64Ibid.; yield growth in this decade is au- ford, U.K.: Commonwealtn Agricultural Bu- thors' estimate, based on ibid. and estimate reau International, in press). for 1989 in USDA. World Agricultural Out- 52. Ibid. look Board (WAOB), World Agnculture Supply and Demand Estimates, October 12, 1989. 53. Jack R. Kloppenburg. Jr., ed., Seeds and Sovereignty. The Use and Control of Plant Genetic 65. USDA, ERS, World Gunn Resources (Durham. N.C.: Duke University 66. Ibid. Press, 1988); Juma, The Gene Hunters; Cary Fowler et al., "The Laws of Life: Another 67. Historicaldata on Japanese grain Derelopment and the New Biotechnoto- ields from Brown, Inc,easing frorld Food Out- gies," Development Dialogue. Issue 1-2, 1988. put, 1989 Chinese rice yield is authors' esti- Notes (Chapters 4 and 5) (213) mate derived from production estimate in 2. UnitedNationsEnvironmentPro- USDA, WAOB, World Aoculture,and from gramme (UNEP),Criteria for Assetsing l'ulnem- 1988 area figure in USDA, ERS, World Gram; biluy to Sea-Level Rise: A Global Inventoryto 110 1989 U.S. corn yield from USDA, WAOB, Risk Areas(Delft, Netherlands: Delft Hydrau- World Agriculture;wheat yield for Western lics Laboratory, 1989). Europe is authors' estimate based on 1989 European Community production estimate 3. John S Hoflinan et al.,Projecting Inane in USDA, WAOB, iforld Agruulture,and from Sea Level Rise(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Envi- 1988 production and area figures in USDA, ronmental Protection Agency (EPA), 1983), ERS,World Grain;1989 Indian rice yield is J.S. Hoffman et al., "Fatum e Global Warming authors' estimate based on productionesti- and Sea Level Rise," in Per Brun, ed.,Iceland mate in USDA, FAS,World Grain Situation and Symposiuni '85 (Reykjavik:National Energy Outlook,September 1989, and on 1988 area Authority,1986); G.P.Hekstra, "Global figure in USDA, ERS,World Grain,all other Warming and Rising Sea Levels: The Policy yield figures from USDA, ERS,World Grain. Implica tions," 111,,Ecologist ,January/Febru- 68. World population growth projection ary 1989. from United Nations, Department ofInterna- 4. John D. Milliman. "Sea Levels: Past, tional Economic and Social Affairs, World Present,and Future,"Oceanus,Summer Population Prospects 1988(New York: 1989). 1989; James G. Titus, EPA, "Causes and Ef- 69. William T. Coyle, "Government As- fects of Sea Level Rise," presentedto thc sistance in Japanese Agriculture,"East Asia First North American Conferenceon Prepar- and OceaniaSituationand OutlookRepoi t , ing for Climate Change: A Cooperative Ap- USDA, ERS, Washington, D.C., May 1987. proat_h, Washington, D.C., October 27-29, 70. Information on Africa from World 1987; James Titus, "Sea Level Rise," inPoten- tial Effects of Global Chniate Changeon the United Bank,Report of the Task Force on Food Secuntyin States ,Vol. II Africa(Washington, D.C.: 1988); see Chapter (draft) (Washington, D.C.: 8 for information on poverty in Latin Amer- EPA, 1989); The Oceanography Report, "Changes in Relative Mean Sea ica; food production perperson from USDA, Level," EOS, November5, 1985. ERS,World Grain;food prices from IMF,In- ternational Financial Statistics,various issues; 5. Milliman, "Sea Levels: Past, Present, infant mortality from United Nations Chil- and Future." dren's Fund,State of the World's Children 1989 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989). 6 Ibid.; Paolo Antonio Pirazzoli, "Sea Level Change,"Nature and Resouices, Octo- 71. Carl Haub, Population Reference Bu- ber/December1985. reau, Washington, D.C., private communication, October 17, 1988; see also Lester R. 7. Titus, "Causes and Effects"; T.P.Bar- Brown et al., "Outlining a Global Action nett, "Recent Changes in Sea Level and Plan," in Lester R. Brown et al.,State if the Theii Possible Causes,"Climatic Change,No. World 1989(New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 5, 1983. 1989). 8. Milliman, "Sea Levels: Past, Present, and Future." Chapter 5. Holding Back the Sea 9. I.M. Salinas et al., "Changes Occurring I. James E. Hansen et al., "Global Climate Along A Rapidly Submerging Coastal Area: Changes asForecast hythe GISS 3-D Louisiana, USA,"journal of Coastal Resouices, Model,"Journal of Geophysical Research,Au- Summer 1986; John D. Milliman et al., "Envi- gust 20, 1988. ronmental and Economic Implications of (214) Notes (Chap(er 5 )

Rising Sea Le)el and Subsiding Deltas. The 22. Eric C.F. Bud, "Iotenual Effects of Nile and Bengal Examples,"Ambio.Vol 18, Sea Le% el Rise on the Coasts nf Australia, No. 6, 1989. Africa. and Asia," in J.G. Titus. ed.,Effects of Changes in Stiatocphenc Ozone and Global Cli- 10. G. Sestini et al., Implicationsof Etpel ted mate, rot Ir. Sea Level Rise(Washington D.C.: Climate Changes in the Mediterranean Regum. An EPA. 1986). Overview,MAP Technical Repot ts Series. No. 27 (Athens: UNEP 1989); Taus, "Sea 1.evel 23. Ibid. Rise 24. James Broadus etal.,"Rising Sea 1 1. Titus, "Sea 1.evel Rise." 1.evel and Damming of Rivers: Possible Ef- fects in Egypt and Bangladesh," in Titus,Ef- 12. Gordon de Q Robin, "Projecting the fects of Changes:Bird, "Potential Effects." Rise in Sea Level Caused by Warming of the Atmosphere," in Bert Bolin et al.. eds..The 25. E.C.F. Bird, "The Modern Prevalence Gieenhouse Effict, Chmate Change and Ecos:Items of Beach Erosion."Marine Pollution Bulletin, (Chichester, U.K.: John Wiley and Sons, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1987; Eric C.F. Bird. "Coastal 1986); Titus, "Sea 1.evel Rise." Erosion and a Rising Sea Level,"Coastal Sub- 13. Ann Henderson-Sellers and Kendall sidenceProblems and Strategies(Chichester, McGuffie. "The Threat from Melting Ice U.K.: John Wiley and Sons, in press); Cory Dean, "As Beach Ei osion Accelerates, Reme- Caps,"NewNelentist, Jun(' 12, 1986. dies are Costly and Few,"New York Times, 14. Millman, "Sea Levels"; Taus. August I, 1989; John Gnbbin, "The World's "Causes and Effects." Beaches Are Vanishing,"New Scientist. May 15. Eric Golanty, "The Global Experi- 10. 1984. ment,"Oceans,January 1984. 26. Titus, "Cawes and Effects." 16. Salinas etal., "Changes Occut ring 27. T.S. Murty et al , "Storm Surges in the Along Submerging Coastal Area." Bay of Bengal,"IOC/UNESCO !rinks/lop on t 7. Peter Hawxlmrst, "Louisiana's Re- 1?egmnal Coopeiation in Marine Science in the Cen- hal Indian Ocean and .44)acent Seas and Gulfs sponses to IrreversibleEnvironmental Change; Strategies for Mitigating impacts (Colombo. July 8-13, 1985) Workshop Re- from Coastal Land Loss." in Mat k Meo. ed., port No. 37-Suppkinent (Paris: Intergov- oceedmgs of Symposium on Climate Change in the ernmental Oceanographic Commission, UNESCO. 1988); Titus, "Causes and Ef- SouthernUnitedStates(Wxhington, D.0 EPA, 1987). fects " 18. Salinas etal., "Changes Occui ring 98. Murty et al., "Stoi in Surges." Along Submerging Coastal Area"; Ilawx- 29. Ibid. hurst, "Louisiana's Responses." 30. Ibid. 19. James G. Titus. ed.,Gmenhouse Effect, Sea Level lbse and CoastalWetlands (Washing- 31. Haman et al., "Future Global Warm- ton, D.C.: EPA. 1987) ing." 20. Ibid. '32 Ted R Miller et al.,Impact of Global Climate Change on Uiban hifi astructme((haft) 21. 1..A. Boorman et al.,Climatic Clumge, ;Washington, D.C.. 'Hie Urban Institute, Rising Sea Leui I and the Bntish Coast ,Institute 1938) of Terrestrial Ecology Repot t No.1 (Lon- don: Her Majesty's Stationary Office, 1989). 33. Titus, "Causes and Effects." Notes (Chapter 5) (215 ) 34. Sestini et al.,lmplu-ations of Erpeded Cli- 52. "National Strategy for Beach Preser- mate Changes. vation," Conference Summary forSecond 35. John D. Milliman, "Rising Sea Level Skidway Institute of Oceanography Confer- and Changing Sediment Influxes: Real and ence on America's Shoreline, Savannah, Ga., June 1985. Future Problems for Indian Ocean Coastal Nations," inIOC/UNESCO Workshop on Re- 53. Tom Coemans and Pier Vellinga, gional Cooperation. "Low Countries and High Seas," presented to the First North American Conferenre 36. Ibid.; R. J. N. Devoy, "Sea Level Ap- on Preparing for Climate Change. A Coopera- plicationsand Management" Progress in tive Approach, Washington, D.C., October Oceanography, Vol. 18, 1987; Broadus et al., 27-29, 1987; UNEP and the Government of "Rising Sea Level." the Netherlands,Impact of Sea Level Rise on Society A Case Study for the Netherlands 37. UNEP,Critena for Assessing Vulnerability.. (Delft, Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics Laboratory, 38. Ibid. 1988).

39. Milliman et al., "Environmental and 54. Goemans and Vellinga, "LowCoun- Economic Implications." tries"; UNEP and Government of Nether- lands, 40. Milliman,"Rising SeaLevel and Impact of Sea Level Riseon Soria y. Changing Sediment"; Broaaus et al., "Rising 55.The Times Atlas of the World(New York: Sea Level." Times Books Ltd., 1)85). 41. Milliman et al., "Environmental and 56. Titus, "Sea Level Rise." Economic Implications"; for further discussion of environmental refugees, 57. Hekstra, "Global Warming"; Bird, see Jodi L. "Potential Effects." Jacobson,Environmental Refugees: a Yardstick of Habitability,, WorldwatchPaperNo.86 58. John Yoo, "Bad Trip: As Highways (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, Decay, Their State Becomes Dragon Econ- November 1988). omy,"Wall Street Journal,August 30, 1989.

42. UNEP,Criteria for Assessing Vulnerability.. 59. Orrin H. Pilkey and Howard L. Wright III, "Seawalls Versus Beaches,"Journal of 43. Milliman et al., "Environmental and Coastal Research,Autumn 1988; Testimony of Economic Implications." Orrin H. Pilkey, Jr. before the Environment, 44. Ibid. Energy, and Natural Resources Subcommit- tee, Committee on Government Operations, 45. Broadus et al.. "Rising Sea Level." U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. April 28, 1989; Robert G. Dean, "Man- 46. Ibid. aging Sand and Preserving Shorelines,"Ocea- 47. Milliman ct al., "Environmental and nus,Fall 1988. Economic Implications.' 60. Titus. "Causes and Effects." 48. Broadus et al., "Rising Sea Level." 61. Bruce Smith, "South Cam olinaon Long Road to Recovery After Devastating 49. Milliman,"RisingSeaLevel and Changing Sediment." Storm," Associated Press, October 21, 1989; Donna Griffiths, Public Information Officer, 50. Hekstra, "Global Warming." South Carolina Coastal Council, Charleston, S.C., personal communication, October 26, 51. Broadus et al., "Rising Sea Level." 1989; Titus, "Sea Level Rise." (216) Notes (Chapters 5 and 6) 62. Titus, "Causes and Effects." 2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), The Toxics-Release Inventoty: A National 63. Gary W. Yohe, "The Cost of Not Perspective (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govern- Hoiding Back the SeaEconomic Vulnera- ment Printing Office, 1989). bility" (draft), Department of Economics, 3. For historical background on the Lon- Wesleyan University, Middletown, Conn., don fog and similar incidents, see Erik P. Eck- 1989. holm, Down to Earth (New York: W. W. Nor- 64. Titus, "Causes and Effects." ton & Co., 1982); for a review of scientific studies rela' ed to London fog incident, see 65. Graham S. Giese and David G. Aubrey, American Lc.ng Association, Health Effects of "Losing Coastal Upland to Relative Sea- Air Polbition (New York: 1989). Level Rise: 3 Scenarios for Massachusetts," 4. National Clean Air Coalition, The Clean Oceanus ,Fall 1987; Graham S. Giese and AtrAct (Washington, D.C.: 1985); see also Dr. David G. Aubrey, "The Relationship Be- Morton Lippman, "Health Benefits from tween Relative Sea-level Rise and Coastal Controlling Exposure to Criteria Air Pollu- Upland Retreat in New England," in J.C. tants," in John Blodgett, ed., Health Benefits Topping, ed., Coping withClimate Change of Air Pollutwn Control. A Discussion (Washing- (Washington, D.C.. Climate Institute, 1989). ton, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 1989). 66. Giese and Aubrey, "Losing Coastal Upland"; Giese and Aubrey, "Thc Relation- 5. U.S. figures from EPA, National Air Pol- ship Between Sea Lev el Rise and Coastal Up- lutionEmusion Estimates,1940-1987(Re- land Retreat." search Triangle Park, N.C.: 1989); Japan and Europe information from United Nations En- 67. Giese and Aubi ey,"Losing Coastal vironment Programme (UNEP) and World Upland"; Giese and Aubrey, "The Relation- Health Organiration (WHO), Assessment of ship Between Relative Sea-level Rise and Urban Air Quality (Nairobi. Global Environ- Coastal Upland Retreat." ment Monitoring System, 1988); Claire Hol- man, Particulate Pollution from Diesel Vehicles (London: Friends of the Earth Ltd., 1989). Chapter 6. Clearing the Air 6. Forinformationonenvironmental 1. U.S. number from American Lung As- problems in Eastern Europe, see Hilary F. sociation, update of "Breath in Danger," French,"IndustrialWasteland," World New York, January 1989, "University Study Watch, November/December 1988; for prob- Correlating Pollution,Mortality Prompts 1,rns in the Soviet Union, see Hilary F. Soviet Complaints in Athens," International Environ- French,"The Greeningof the ment Reporter, August 10, 1988; figure on Union," World Watch, May/June 1989. Hungary cited in Don Hinrichsen, "The 7. Sandra Poste!, Air Pollutwn, Acid Rain, Danube Blue No Longer," Earthwatch (Inter- and the Future of Forests, Worldwatch Paper 58 national Planned Parenthood Federation), (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, No. 36, 1989; India figure from "Vehicular March 1984); projections for the year 2000 Pollution Makes Breathing Dangerous," In- from Lori Heise, "Air Pollution Attacks dian Post (Bombay), February 11, 1989; Larry China's Forsts," World Watch, January/Feb- Rohter, "Mexico City's Filthy Air," New York ruary 1988; information on India from C.K. Times,April12,1989;brochureabout Varshney and J.K. Garg, "A Quantitative As- Ashoka Fellow Luis Manuel Guerra, Ashoka, sessment of Sulfur Dioxide Emission from Arlington, Va., undated. Fossil Fuels in India," Journal of the Air Pollu- Noles (Chapter 6) (217) lionContiol Association, November 1978, cited Worst in California," Washington Post, De- in Postel, Air Pollution. cember 3, 1988; national ozone nonattain- 8. UNEP and WHO.1ssessment of Urban Air ment figures from American Lung Associa- Quality. . tion, "Breath in Danger." 9 Ibid. 14. Friends of the Earth Ltd., "Clean Air Week Off to a Bad Start as WHO Ozone Lev- 10. Lippman, "Health Benefits from Con- els are Exceeded Several Times," pressre- trollingExposure";MichaelWeisskopf, lease, London, May 26, 1989, P. Grennfeltet "Acid Aerosols and a Link to Childhood al.,"Regional Ozone Concentrationsin Bronchitis," Washington Post, June 6, 1989; Europe," in P. Mathy, ed.Iir Pollution and U.S.Officeof TechnologyAssessment Ecosystems Proceedings of an International Sympo- (OM), And Rain and Transported An Pollu- sium held in Grenoble, France, 18-22 May 1987 tants. Implications for Public Policy (Washing- (D-,rdrecht: D Reidel, 1988). ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 15. William Branigin, "Bracing for Pollu- 1984). uon Disaster," Washington Post, November 11. OTA, And Rain and Transpoited Air Pol- 28, 1988; Michael P. Walsh, transportation lutants; Sandra Poste!, Allenng the Earth's consultant, private communication, October 12, 1989. ChemistryAssessingtheRisks,Worldwatch Paper 71 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- 16. In addition, Brazil, Taiwan, Mexico, stitute, July 1980; Daniel an Atta, "Thou- and the European Community are planning sands of Swedish Wells Acidified," Acid, toimplementU.S.-equivalentstandards March 6, 1988. soon; the European plans are discussed later 12. Philip A. Bromberg, M.D., University in this chapter. Michael Renner, Rethinking the Role of the Automobile, Worldwatch Paper 84 of North Carolina School of Medicine, Testi- (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, mony, and Morton Lippmann, Ph.D., New June 1988); MichaelP.Walsh, "Global York University Medical Center, Testimony, Trends in Motor Vehicle Pollution Con- Hearings on Health Effects of Air Pollution, trolA 1988 Perspective," Society of Auto- Subcommittee on Environmental Protection, Committee on Environment and motive Engineers Technical Paper Series, Public Schenectady, N.Y., 1989; UNEP and WHO, Works, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C., April Assessment of Urban Air Quality. 18, 1989; David Stipp, "Regular Ozone Lev- els in Cities May Hurt Lungs," Wall Street 17. EPA, National Air Pollution Emission Esti- Journal, September 18, 1989. mates; Michael Weisskopf, "Leaded Gasoline

Cut Improves Air Greatly," Washington Post,, 13. EPA, "EPA Lists Places Failing to April 15, 1987; on lead level in bloodsee Meet Ozone or Carbon Monoxide Stan- Barry Commoner, "A Reporter at Large: The dards," press release, Washington, D.C., July Environment," The New Yorker, June 15, 27, 1989; Don Theiler, State and Territorial 1987. Air PoPution Program Administrators, Testi- mony, Hearings on the Health Effects of Air 8. WHO and UNEP, Assessment of Urban Pollution, Subcommittee on Health and En- Air Quality; Guillermo X. Garcia, "High Lead vironment, Committee on Energy and Com- Levels Threatening Mexico's Next Genera- merce,U.S.House of Representatives, tion,"Tunes Advmate (Escondido,Calif.), Washington, D.C., February 28, 1989; infor- April 14, 1988. mation on Washington and New York from 19. EPA, Tows Release Inventoiy; Michael Richard E. Ayres, Testimony, ibid.; Los An- Weisskopf, "U.S. Air Pollution Exceeds Esti- geles number from "Smog Season One of mates," Washington Post, March 23, 1989.

0 :"., 0 4, (218) Notes (Chapter 6) 20 EPA, Unfinished Business. A Comparat)v and Rafael Herrera. ed.Indiftcanon of Trop Assessment of Environmental Problems, Appendix I. cal Countnes Scope 36 (New York. John Wiley Report of the Cancer Risk Work Group (Washing- Sons, 1988). ton, D.C.: Office of Policy Analysis, 1987), 27. David W. Schindler, "Acid Precipita- Alexandra Allen, "Poisoned Air," Eimron- tion and Global Change," speech delivered mental Action , January/February 1988. to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences 21. Stanley Kabala, "Poland. Facing the Forum on Global Change and Our Common Hidden Costs of Dev elopment," Environment , Future, Washington, D.C., May 2-3, 1989. November 1985; Michael Kenney, "Poland's 28. Diane Fisher et al., Polluted Coastal Wa- E.-ironmental Crisis," Journal of Commerce , ters: The Role of Acid Rain (New York: Environ- August 23, 1988. mental Defense Fund. April 1988); Nordic 22. N. Namiki, "International Redeploy- Council of Ministers, Europe's AirEurope's ment of Pollution-Intensive Industries and Enorc went (Stockholm: International Con- the Role of Multinational Corporations," reference on Transboundary Air Pollution, port prepared for the World Commission on 1986). Environment and Development, Geneva, 29. 1982 figure from Poste!, Air Pollunon 1986; information on chemical Industry in other years from Ministry of Food, Agricul- India from "Environmental Pollution Con- ture, and Forestry, "1988 Forest Damage trol in Relation to Developmcnt," World Survey," Bonn, West Germany, November Health Organization Technical Report Se- 1988. It should be noted that some portion of ries, Geneva, 1985. the dramatic increases between 1982, 1983, 23. Michael Weisskopf, "Toxic Clouds' and 1984 may have been due to a change in Can Carry Pollutants Far and Wide," Wash- the surveying method. Aiso, there isan emerging consensus that "Class 1" (slight) ington Post, March 16, 1988; "Airborne Pollu- damage, which accounts for much of the total tion May be Hurting Eskimo Health," Multi- in West Germany as well as elsewhere in national Environmental Outlook, January 5, Europe, serves as an early warning sign but 1989; see also Jost Heintzenberg, "Arctic does notnecessarily indicate permanent Haze: Air Pollution in Polar Regions," Ambio , damage. Vol. 18, No 1, 1989 30. James J. MacKenzie and Mohamzd T. 24. Crocker study described in James S. El-Ashry, Ill Winds: Airborne Pollution's Toll on cannon, The Health Costs of Air Pollution (New Trees and Crops (Washington, D.C.: World Re- York: American Lung Association, 1985); Jay sources Institute, 1988). Mathews, "Smog-Control Study Targets Medical Costs," Washington Post , July1 1, 31. Jon Luorna, "Acid Murder No Longer 1989. a Mystery," Audub a, November 1988; James J. MacKenzie and Mohamed T. El-Ashry, "Ill 25. For a description of the early interac- Winds: Air Pollution's Toll on Trees and tionsI- tAween American and Scandinavian Clops," Technology Review, , April 1989; Bruck scientists see Gene E. Likens, "Somt Aspects quoted in Philip Shabecoff, "Deadly Combi- of Air Pollutant Effects on Tet restrial Ecosy s- nation Felling Trees h. East," New ork Times, tems and Prospects for the Future," Ambi July 24, 1988. Vol. 18, No. 3, 1989. 32. Don Him ichsen, "Poland's Chemical 26. I/wid W. Schindler, "Effects of Acid Cauldron," The Amicu,s Journal, Spring 1968; Rain on 7reshwatei Ecjsy stems," Science , Schulz and Wicke cited in Per Elvingson, January 8, 1988; see also Henning Rodhe "Air Pollution Costing West Germany Bil-

" 44 C.) C) No/es (Chaplei 6 ) (219 ) lions," And News, special issie for Intelna- Repiesentatnes, Washington. 1) C.. April 6, tional Air Pollution Week, Ma) 27-June 5, 1989; R ummond A) I es. Jr., "Gettysburg 1989; Mike Leary, "Poisoned Emironnient Journal," New Yoth Times June 20, 1989; Ber- Worries Eastern Emoue," Philadelphialu- nard Smith et al., "Elusive Solution to Monu- g:tiler, October 4, 191 mental Decay," New Scientist, June 2, 1988 33 MacKenzie an IllWinds, 39. McCormick, Acid Eaz Br: John Noble National Acid Precipitation Assessment Pio- "Nes% Threat to Maya Ruins: Acid gram (NAPAP), Intenm Assessment The Comes Rain," .Vew Yozk Tunes, August 8, 1989; Mei le and Effects of Acidic Deposition, Volume IV Green Kobel tson, "re-Columbian Art Re- (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- sealch Insutnte, San Francisco, "Investiga- ing Office, 1987); economic loss estimated b) tion of Color on Ma) a Sculpture and the Ef- Walter W. Heck, Chairman, Research Com- fects of Acid Precipitation," Mesoamerica mittee, National Crop Loss Assessment Net- Foundation, Wilda, Mexico, 1989. work, cited in MacKenzie and El-Ashry, Ill 40. Swedish andDutchstudiesfrom McCormA, Acid Eallh; for a discussion of 34, Heise, "Air Pollution Attacks China's sarious studies done in the United Statessee Forests" ; see also James N. Gallowmet al., Magazine!, Testimony; for informationon a "Acid Rain: China, United States, anda Re- draft U.S. study that was never publishedin mote Area," Science, June 19, 1987; "Acid final form see Philip Shabecoff, "Draft Study Rain Eats Into Province." Cluna Daily, Ma) Puts Acid Rain Damage at $5 Billion for 17 31, 1989; Peter Muello, "Acid Rain Falling States," New York Times, July 18, 1985. on Latin America," Los Angeles limes, Septem- Jer 30, 1984. 41. International Energy Agency (IEA), Emission Contiols in Electricity Genoahon and In- 35. Hennuag Rodhe, "Acidification ina dustiy (Paris. Organisation for Economic Co- Global Perspective," Amino, Vol. 18. No. 3, operation and Development, 1988). 1989; Marlise Simons, "High Ozone and Acid-Rain Lewis Found 0)er African Rain 42 NAPAP, Interim .1ssessment, N'ol. 1; lEA, Forests," New York Times, June 19, 1989;see Emissions Contiols. also Rodhe and elerrera, Acidification of TiOpl- 43. Czechoslovakia cal Countries. information from "Ambitious Program Under Way to Improve 36. See OTA, Acid Rain, fol a description Em iron nent 1:) 2000," International Envuon- of materials at risk. ment Reporto ,January 1989; Wellington Chu. "Coal Pollution Plagues China's Moderniza- 37 Economic Commission for Europe tion " Journal of Conunoce, August 26, 1988. (ECE), Air Pollution Anoss Boundaries (New York: United Nations, 1985); Athens and 44. lEA, Emissions Contiols. Katowice estimated from John McCoi mick, Acid Earth (London: International Institute 45, Ibid., NAPAP, Interim Assessment, Vol. for Environment and Development, 1985); Paul Hofmann, "Italy's Endangel ed Trea- 46. lEA, Emissions Controls. sures," New York Times, July 30, 1989. 47. Howard S. Geller, Testimony at Hear- 38. Henry L. Magaziner, American Insti- ings on Acid Rain Control Proposals, Sub- tute of Architects, Testimony at Hearings on committee on Health and the Environment, Acid Ram Conti ol Pioposals, Subcommittee Committee on Eneigy and Commerce, U.S. on Health and the Environment. Committee HouseofRepresentatives,Washington, on Energy and Commerce, U.S. House of D.0 ,April 6, 1989; for a more complete

tl" (220) Notes (Chapter 6) analysis see Howard S. Geller. , al.1cid Rani Ogunsenan, "Wednesdayis Odd Day in and Electnaty Conservation (Washington, D.C.. Lagos." New Internationalist, March 1989. American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy/Energy Conservation Coalition, 53. Formaldehyde number from Renner, Rethinking the Automobile; carbon implications 1987). from James MacKenzie, World Resources In- 48. Geller, Testimony; Geller et al., Acid stitute, Testimony at Hearings on Alternative Rain and Electncity Conservation. Fuels, Committee on Energy and Natural Re- sources, U.S. Senate, October 17, 1989; in- 49. David H. Moscovitz, "Cutting the Na- formation on safety from ibid., and from tion's Electric Bill," Issues in Science and Tech- James S. Cannon, Dnve foi Clean Air: Natural nology, Spring 1989; Larry DeWitt, New York Gas and Methanol Vehicles (New York: IN- Public Service Commission, private com-nu- FORM, 1989). See also David E. Gushee, nication, October 13, 1989; New York State "Alternative Fuels from Motor Vehicles: Department of Public Service, "Considera- Some Environmental Issues," U.S. Congres- tion of Environmental Externalities in Com- sional Research Service, Washington, D.C., petitive Bidding Programs of Orangc and September 20, 1988, and David E. Gushee, Rockland Utilities," unpublished paper, un- "Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Methanol dated; New York State Department of Public as a Vehicle Fuel," U.S. Congressional Re- Service, "Consideration of Environmental search Service, Washington, D.C., June 3, Exterr- litiesin Competitive Bidding Pro- 1988. grams o Acquire Future Electric Capacity Needs of Niagara Mohawk Power Corpora- 54. OTA, Catching Our Breath Next Steps for tion," unpublished paper, undated; SL:y N. Reducing Ui ban Ozone (Washington, D.C.: Putta, "CompetitioninElectric Genera- U.S. Government Printing Office, 1989). The tionEnvironmentalExternalities,"Neu numbers giN en are estimates for reduction York State Department of Public Service, Al- costs in 1994 in areas not in attainment uith bany, N.Y., unpublished paper, undated. Clean Air Act standards. 50. Roberta Forsell Staufrer, "Energy Sav- 55. Richaid D. Wilson, EPA, and Stew ings From Recycling," Resouue Recycling, Jan- Plotkin, Office of -. echnology Assessment, uary/February 1989, Cynthia PollockIhning Testnnony at Hearings on Automotie Fuel UrbanWastes. ThePotential for Recythng, Economy, Subcommittee on Energy and Worldwatch Paper 76 (Washington, D C : Power, Committee on Energy and Com- Worldwatch Institute, April 1987), Postellir merce,U.S.Houseof Representatives, Pollution. Washington, D.C., July 13, 1989; Chris Cal- well, "Fuel Economy/Emissions Interactions 51. Renner, Rethinking the Automobile . in Automobiles," Testimony before State of 52. "Athens Smog Forces Anothei Auto California Energy Resources Conservation Ban," Multinational Environmental 001ook, and Development Commission Hearing on September 29, 1988, Clyde Haberman, "Is It 1989 Fuels Report , June 12, 1989. Calwell also Over Then? City Closes Its Heart to the found that the 50 most efficient models had Car," New York Tunes ,October 10, 1988; 24 percent lower carbon monoxide emis- "Central Budapest Car Ban Seeks to Curb sions than the average car and 35 percent Air Pollution," Reuters, March 30, 1988, loner emissions than the 50 least efficient "Neu Mexican President Promises Action to ones. He found no correlation one way oi the Control Air Pollution," Multinational Environ- othei with nitrogen oxides, stating that "the mental Outlook, December 22, 1988, "Smog- only conclusion that can be safely drawn Filled Santiago to Clean Up," Multinational about NOx is that i aising or lowering fuel Environmental Outlook, May 2, 1989, O'seun economy is not likely to have a statistically Noles (Chaplei 6) (221) significant impact on NO, emissions." For ble to predict exactl) what shape a final bill more detail, see Chris Calwell, "The Near- might take. Term Potential for Simultaneous Improve- ments in the Fuel Efficiency and Emissions of 62. ECE, "Acid Rain: Protocol on Emis- U.S. Automobiles," Masters Thesis, Energy sions Enters into Force," press release, Ge- and Resources Group, University of Califor- neva, August 25, 1987; "25 ECE Members nia, Berkeley, June 1989. Sign Protocol To Limit Emissions of Nitro- gen Oxides,"International Envy onment Re- 56. Deborah Gordon and Leo Levenson, porter, ,November 1988; see also Peter H. Dnve +. 4 Proposal for California to Use Con- Sand, "Air Pollution in Europe: International sumer Fees and Rebates to Reduce New Motor Vehi- Policy Responses,"Environment ,December cle Emissions and Fuel Con.sumption(Berkeley, 1987. Calif.: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, 1989); Calwell, "Near-Term Potential." 63. Sand, "Air Pollution in Europe"; "25 ECE Members Sign Protocol,"International 57. Joel S. Hirschhorn, "Cutting Produc- Envy onment Reporter;"Probabilit) Seen as tion of Hazardous Waste,"Technology Review, Highly Desirable for Volatile Organic Com- April 1988; OTA,From Pollution to Preventwn pound Protocol,"International Environment A Progress Report on Waste Reduction(Washing- Reporter,August 1989. ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 64. Commission of the European Commu- 1987); Sandra Postel,Defusingthe Tows nities, cited in Jim Skca, "Reducing Fossil Threat:ControlhngPestwides and Industrial Waste,Worldwatch Paper 79 (Washington, Fuel Emissions: The Policy Framework," Sci- ence Policy Research Unit, University of Sus- D.C.:WorldwatchInstitute,September 1987). sex, Brighton, unpublished paper, Sep- tember 1988; see also Nigel Haigh, "New 58. Project '88, sponsored by Senators Tools for European Air Pollution Control," Timothy E. Wirth and John Heinz,llarnessnig InternationalEnvironmental Affmrs, Winter Market Forces to Protect Our Environment. Intha- 1989, and "Limits Set for Large Combustion lives for the New President(Washington, D.C.. Plants,"Acid News,special issue for Interna- 1988). tional Air Pollution Week, May 27-June 5, 1989. 59. DavidSarokin,EPA, Washington, D.C., private communication, October 10, 65. "Statemer:t," NGO Strategy Meeting 1989. on Air Pollution, Wageningen, Netherlands, April 3-4, 1989; Christer Agren, "Critical 60. Helmut Weidner, A Survey of Clean Air Loads Remain Most Important Factor,"And Poluy In Europe (Berlin: Wissenschaftszen- ,Vews,Special Issue for International Air Pol- trum Berlin fir Sozialforschung,1989); lution Week, May 27-June 5, 1989; see also "European Commiss:ori Considei s Directive Jan Nilsson, ed.,.Cntical Loads for Sulphur and on Freedom of Information on the Environ- Nitrogen. Report from q Nordic {Puking Group ment,"InWrnalional Environment ReporteiOc- (Solna:National Swalish Environmental tober 1988. Protection Board, 1986). 61. For a detailed description of Bush's 66. "Eui opean Community Environment proposal to Congress, see "Section-by-Sec- Ministers Agree on New Emission Levels for tion Analysis of the 'Clean Air Act Amend- SmallCars," International Envnonment Re. ments of 1989'," Executive Office of thc porter,June 1989; "Common Market Finally President, Washington, D.C. July 20, 1989. Adopts Tight Vehicle Standards,"Car Lines At this stage, many different proposalsare (Michael P. Walsh, Arlington, Va.), June being considered by Congress. It is impossi- 1989. (222) Notes (Chapters 6 and 7) 67. South Coast Air Qpalit). Management 71. Debbie NIacklin, "Rebirth in Death District, Air Quahly Management Plan. South Valle)," South, March 1989, T)ler Bridges, Coast An Basin(El Monte, Calif.: March "Brazilian City Battles Pollution," New York 1989); Robert Reinhold, "Southern Califor- hmei, Ma), 23, 1988; "New Mexican Presi- nia Takes Steps to Curb Its Urban Air Pollu- dent Promises Action to Control Pollution," tion," New York nmes, March 18, 1989. Multinational Environment Outlook, December 22, 1988; William Branigin, lapan Plans $1 68. Marjorie Sun, "Ent ironmental Awak- Billion in Aid for Mexico to Combat Severe ening in the SOA let Union," Science, August Air Pollution," Washington Post, August 30, 26, 1988; "Report of the Round Table Sub- 1989; "Mexico, U.S. Sign Accords for Joint unit on Ecolon," Wai saw, March Clean-Up Action," Multinational Environmen- submitted as supplementar), material to Con- tal Outlook, October 17, 1989; Walsh, private gressional Hearings on East-West Environ- communication. mental Cooperation, Commission on Secu- 72. John Elkington and Jonathan Shopiey, rity and Cooperation in Europe, September Cleaning up LT S. Waste Management Technology 28, 1989. and Third World Development (Washington, D.C.: World ResourcesInstitute,1989); 69. Robert Watson, Natural Resources Fiona Sebastian, World Bank, Washington, Defense Council, Speech to "Meeting on So- D.C.,private communication, August1, viet Energy Options and Global Environ- 1989; Barber B. Conable, Address to the mental Issues," Georgetown University, June Board of Governors of the World Bank 29, 1989; "NRDC & Soviet Academy of Group, Washington, D.C., September 26, Sciences Cooperation on Global Warming 1989; information on pending AID legisla- and Energy Efficiency," Status Report, un- tion from Carol Werner, Environmental and published memorandum, October1989; Energy StudyInstitute,U.S.Congress, "Strong Soviet Interest in RMI's Efficiency Washington, D.C., private commumc Message," RMI Newslettei , Rocky Mountain October 11, 1989. Institute, Old Snowmass, Colo., November 1987; "Back m the U S.S.R.," RMI Newsletter, Rocky Mountain Institute, Old Snowmass, Chapter 7. Cycling into the Future Colo., February 1989; "Swedish-Soviet In- dustry Committee Proposes Baltic Sea Envi- I. Number of bicycles worldwide is au- ronmental Plan," International Emnronment Re- thor's estimate based on International Trade porter, August 1989. Centre, Bicycles and Components: A Pilot Survey of Opportunities for Trade A. mg Developing 70. GeorgeIngrain,StaffConsultant, Countries (Geneva: UNCTAD/GAIT 1985); Committee on Foreign Affairs, U.S. House of number of automobiles (394 million in 1987) Representatives, Washington, D.C., private is from Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Associ- communication, November 21, 1989; "Swed- ation (MVMA), Facts and Figures '89 (Detroit, ish Government to Give Poland $45 Million Mich.: 1989). for Environmental Activities," International 2. R.H. ter Heide, "Recreational Use of Environment Reporter, Not ember 1989; "Anti- the Bicycle. Organizational and Economic pollution l echnology Crosses from West Aspects," relo City 87 International Congress. Germany to the East," New Scientist. Jul), 15, Planiang for the Crban Cyclist , proceedings of 1989; see also Helmut Schreiber, "East and the Third International Velo City Congress, West German} Cooperate to Control Pollu- Groningen, the Netherlands, September 22 tion," European Environment Review. . Decem- 26, 1987 (hereinafter cited as Velo City 87 ber 1988. Conference). In 1986 the Netherlands had

011 ) Notes (Chapter 7) (223) some 120 passenger cars per square kilome- Components;Andy Clarke. "Pro-bike: A Cy- ter, Only Hong Kong and Singapore had cling Policy for the 1990s" (London: Friends more, with 175 and 400 cars per square kilo- of the Earth, 1987); the Bicycle Institute of meter, respectively; MVMA,Facts and Figures America, Inc estimates that in 1988 there '88(Detroit, Mich.: 1988). were 2.7 minion bicycle commuters in the 3. "Population Control Conies inthe United States. Kingdom of Bikes,"China Daily,,January 9, 10. See,forexample, JohnPucher, 1989; Jun-Men Yang, "Bicycle Traffic in "Urban Travel Behavior as the Outcome of China,"Transportation Quarterly,January Public Policy: The Example of Modal-split in 1985; "See the PRC in Your Xiali,"Asiaweek, Western Europe and North America,"APA September 2, 1988; Zhou You Ma, "Ode to Journal ,Autumn 1988; W.G.M. Huyink, "Cy- the Bicycle,"China Reconstructs, 1987;Japan cling Policy in the City of Groningen," Velo Cycle Press International ,October 1988. City '87 Conference. 4. V. Setty Pendakur, "Formal and Infor- 11. Michael A. Replogle,Bicycles and Public mal Urban Transport in Asia,"C1]S0Journal, Transportation. New Links to Suburban Transit December 1987; for a full description of dif- Markets,2nd ed. (Washington, D.C.: The Bi- ferent kinds of paratransit, see Peter J. Rim- mer,Rikisha to Rapid Transit: Urban Public cycle Federation, 1988); Andy Clarke, Gov- ernmentRelations Transport Systems and Policy in Southeast Asia Director,League of American Wheelmen, Baltimore, Md., pri- (Sydney: PergamonPress, 1986);Ken vate Hughes and Michael A. Replogle, "Sustaina- communication,March 16, 1989; Clarke, "Pro-bike: A Cycling Policy for the ble Transportation,"Not ManApart, July/Au- gust 1987. 1990s." 5. David Mozer, Director, International 12. Alethea Morison, Bicycle Institute of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, private Bicycle Fund, Bellevue, Wash., privatecommunication, August 4, 1989. communication, June1,1989; James C. McCullagh, "10 Rest Cycling Cities," Bicy- 6. Ibid.; Richard Barret, World Bank, cling, November 1988. Washington, D.C., private communication, March 24, 1989. 13. Production figures based onJapan CyclePressInternational ,variouseditions;

7. Ricardo A. Navarro etal., Alternattvas de "NiCs Update," JapanCycle Press International, Traasporte en America Latina. La Bicwletay los June 1988. Tnciclos(St. Gallen: Swiss Center for Appro- priate Technology, 1985); Ken Hughes, Ex- 14. For a thorough discussion of thecon- ecutive Director, Institute for Transportation sequences of excessive reliance on cars, see and Development Pohcy (ITDP), Washing- Michael Renner,Riflimiung the Role of the Auto- ton, D.C., private communication, April 7, mobile,Worldwatch Paper 84 (Washington, 1989. D.C.: Worklwatch Institute, June 1988). 8. Werner Brag et al., "Promotion and 15. Michael P Walsh, "The Global Impor- Planning for Bicycle Transportation: An in- tance of Metce Vehicles in the Climate Modi- fication Problem," ternational Overview," paper presentedat International Environment annual meeting of the Transportation Re- Reporter, ,May1989; Richard Gould, "The Ex- search Board, National Research Council, hausting OpLons of Modern Vehicles,"New Washington, D.C., January 1984. Scientist,May 13, 1989; Renner,Rethinking the Role of the Automobile;"New Mexican Presi- 9. Number of bicycles per person based dent Promises Action to Control Air Pollu- on International Trade Centre, Bicycles 'nd tion,"Multinational Environmental Outlook.De-

et A., ..4 S Notes (Chapter 7 ) cember 22, 1988. "Air Pollution in Brazil," 24. MVMA, Facts and Figures '88 , Clarke, Multinational Environmental Outlook, July 21, "Pro-bike. A Cycling Policy for the 1990s." 1988. 25. Mary C. Holcomb et al., Transportation 16. James J. MacKenzie, Breathing Easier. Energy Data BookEdition 9 (Oak Ridge, Taking Action on Climate Change, Air Pollution, Tenn.. Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory, and EnergyInsecurity(Washington,D.C.: 1987). World Resources Institute, 1988); James J. MacKenzie and Mohamed 1'. El-Ashry, "Ill 26. U.N. Center for Human Settlements Winds: Air Pollution's Toll on Trees and (Habitat), Transportation Strategies for Human Crops," Technology Review, April 1989. Settlementsin Developmg Countnes(Nairobi: 1984); World Bank, Urban Transport: A World 17. Renner, Rethinking II,Role of the Auto- Bank Policy Study (Washington, D.C.: 1986). mobile; Gould, "The Exhausting Options of Modern Vehicles"; Walsh, "The Global Im- 27. For a discussion of the health benefits portance of Motor Vehicles in the Climate of cycling, see Nelson Pena, "Survival of the Modification Problem." Fittest," Bzcychng, June 1988. 18. Jeffryl Erickson et al., "An Analysis of 28. Charles Komanoff ispresidentof Transportation Energy Conservation Pro- Trarsportation Alternatives, a cycling advo- jects in Developing Countries," Transporta- cacy group in New York City; quote from tion, Vol. 1, No. 5, 1988. Charles Komanoff, "The Bike Ban is Bad Medicine," The New York Observer,January 25, 19. Deborah Bleviss, Th- New Oil Cnsis and 1988. Fuel Economy Technologies Preparing the Light Transportation Industry for the 1990's (New 29. Automobile prices based on 1983 mar- York: Quorum Press, 1988). ket price for an economy car in some 25 de- 20. "Traffic Jams: The City, the Com- veloping countries, from World Bank, Urban Transport; bicycle prices assumed to range muter and the Car," The Economist , February from $80-250; V. Setty Pendakur, Urban 18, 1989; Melinda Beck, "Smart Cars, Smart Streets," Newsweek, December 5, 1988; "Tai- Growth, Urban Poor and Urban Transport in Asia pei Residents Troubled by Traffic Tangle," (Vancouver: University of British Columbia, China Daily, August 30, 1988; "Commuters' 1986). Nine to Five Favourites," South, November 30. Worid Bank, UrbanTransport, and 1988. other World Bank documents. 21. MacKenzie,BreathingEasier;Andy 31. Val Curtis, Women and the Transport of Clarke, "How to Use Bicycling as a Cost-ef- Water (London: Intermediate Technology fective Means of Reducing Air Pollution," Publkations, 1986);CharlesK.Kaira, League of American Wheelmen, Baltimore, -Transportation Needs of the Rural Popula- Md., 1989. tion in Developing Countries: An Approach 22. John Young, 'Methanol Moonshine," to Improved Transportation Planning," doc- World Watch , July/August 1988. toral dissertation, University of Karlsruhe, West Germany, 1983; I. Barwell et al., Rural 23. Jillian Beardwood and John Elliott, Transport m Developing Countnes (London In- "Roads Generate Traffic," paper p _pared termediate Technology Publications, 1985). for the Greater London Council, 1985; Farris quoted in Robert D. Ervin and Kan Chen, 32. Paul Zille, "Transport Research: An "Toward Motoring Smart," Issues in Science Investigation into Local Level Transport and Technology, Winter 1988-89. Characteristics and Requirements in Ismaili Notes (Chapter 7 ) (225 )

Division, Iringa, Tanzania," Project Report, Symbol of Free Enterprise," The Austrahan, Intermediate Technology Transport, Ltd., April 26, 1989; U.N. Department of Interna- Oxon, U.K., 1988; Gordon Hathway, Low-cost tional Economic and Social Affairs, Population Vehicles: Options for Moving People and Goods Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Dhaka (New (London: Intermediate Technology Publica- York: United Nations, 1987); Guy, Dimond, tions, 1985); Habitat, Transportatwn Strategies "Wheels of Change in Bangladesh," New Cy- for Human Settlements in Developing Countnes . clist, Winter 1988; Sethuraman, The Ui ban In- 33. Thampil Pankaj, World Bank, Wash- formal Sector in Developing Countries: Employ- ington, D.C., private communication, Febru- ment, Poverty and Envinrunent. ary 22, 1989. 39. Replogle, "Transportation Strategies for Sustainable Development"; Pendakur, 34. Hathway, Low-costVehicles;"Bicycle "Formal and Informal Urban Transportin Adapted for New Uses for Indian Farmers," Asia." New York Times, October 16, 1980; Job S. Ebenezer, Associate Director, World Hunger 40, Michael A.Replogle,"Sustainable Program of the Evangelical Lutheran Church Transportation Strategies for Third World in America, Chicago, private communication, Development," paper presented at annual August 1, 1989; "Rescue the Rickshaw," New meeting of the Transportation Research Internationalist, May 1989. Board, National Research Council, Washing- ton, D.C., January 1988 (document he cited 35. S.V. Sethuraman, ed., The Urban Infor- is "China Transport Sector Study," World mal Sector in Developmg Countries. Employment, Bank, Washington, D.C., 1985). Poverty and Environment (Geneva: Interna- tional Labor Organization, 1981); "Bikean 41. Hughes, numerous private communi- Indispensable Tool," China Daily,, February cations;BarbaraFrancisco, "The Third 1989;Pendakur, "Formal and Informal World: Making it Mobile," Washmgton Post, Urban Transport in Asia"; Robin Stallings, January 30, 1989; Keith Oberg, "Beira: Low- "The Present Role of the Bicycle in Iran, Af- cost Vehicle Demonstration Project," paper prepared for ITDP Bikes for Africa Program, ghanistan,Pakistan,ai.dIndia,"ITDP, Washington, D.C., 1981; Rebecca L. Reich- Washington, D.C., 1989. Other groups active mann and Ron Weber, "Solidarity in Devel- in research and technical support for bicycle opment: The Tricicleros of Santo Domingo," promotion in developing countries include the Swiss Center for Appropriate Technol- Grassroots Development, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1987. ogy (SKAT), the Netherlands-based Center 36. Pendakur, Urban Growth, Urban Poor for International Cooperation and Appropri- and Urban Transport in Asia; Pendakur, "For- ate Technology, and the German Appropri- mal and Informal Urban Transport in A- ia." ate Technology Center. 37. S. Carapetis et al., The Supply and Qual- 42 Pankaj, private communication. ity of Rural Transport Services in Developing Coun- 43. Asian producers include China, Tai- Ines: A Comparative Review (Washington, D.C.: wan, Japan,India,Indonesia,Malaysia, World Bank, 1984); Wilfred Owen, Transpor- Korea, and Thailand; Centro Salvadoreno de tation and World Development (Baltimore, Md.: Tecnologia Apropiada, "Promotion of Bicy. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1987). cle and Tricycle Use in El Salvador," San 38. Michael A. Replogle, "Transportation Sahador, El Salvador, 1986; Navarro et al., Strategies for Sustainable Development," La Bicicleta y los Tnciclos. paper prepared for Fifth World Conference 44. Navarro et al., La Bwidela y los Tnodos; on Transport Research, Yokohama, Japan, International Trade Center, Bicycles and Com- July 1989; Alain Boebion, "Indonesia Sinks ponents . (226) Notes (Chapter 7) 45. Navarro et al., La Bicwleta y los Tnaclos. tion Effort in the Netherlands," Urban Trans- portation Abroad, Winter 1982. 46. Pucher, "Urban Travel Behavior." 55. Ter Heide, "Recreational Use of the 47. Carapet:s et al., Supply and Quality of Bicycle"; M.J.P.F. Gommers, "The Bicycle Rural Transport Services in Developing Countries. Network of Delft, Influence on Trip-level, 48. Wang Dazi, "Touring Beijing on a Network Use and Route Choice of Cyclists," Rented Bike," China Daily , January 25, 1989; Velo City '87 Conference. Li Jia Ying, "Management of Bicycling in 56. Clarke, private communication; Dutch Urban Areas," Transportation Quarterly, , Octo- Ministry of Transport and Public Works, ber 1987; Michael A. Powills and Chen "Evaluation of the Delft Bicycle Network: Sheng-Hong, "Bicycles in Shanghai: A Major Final Summary Report," The Hague, Neth- Transportation Issue," paper presented at erlands, 1987; Dirk H. ten Grotenhuis, "The annual meeting of the Transportation Re- Delft Cycle Plan: Characteristics of the Con- search Board, National Research Council, cept," Velo City '87 Conference. Washington, D.C., January 1989; Wang Zhi Hao, "Bicycles in La-ge Cities in China," 57. TEST, Qualuy Streets. Tramport Reviews , Voi. 9, No. 2, 1989. 58. DeboraMacKenzie,"DutchLead 49. Ryozo Tsutsumi, "Bicycle Safety and Drive to Banish Car Pollution,"New Scientist, Parking Systems in Japan," Pro Bike '88 , pro- December 24, 1988; "Dutch Courage,"New ceedings of the Fifth International Confer- Cyclist,Spring 1989. ence on Bicycle Programs and Promotions, 59. Gunna Starck, in Niels Jensen and Jens Tucson, Ariz., October 8-12, 1988; Michael Erik Lar: 'n, "Cycling in Denmark: From the Replogle, Institute for Transportation and Past into the Future," Road Directorate, Min- Development Policy, Washington, D.C., pri- istry of Transport, and the Municipality of vate communication, August 9, 1989. Copenhagen, Copenhage 4,1989; Pucher, 50. Replogle, Bic,..les and Public Transporta- "Urban Travel Behavior"; Replogle,Bicycles tion. and Public Transportation. 51. Tsutsumi, "Bicycle Safer) and Parking 60. David Peltz,Department of Public Systems in Japan", Replogle, private commu- Works, Dav is, Calif., pi nate communication, nication; Replogle, Bicycles and Public Trans- July 28, 1989. portation. 61. Gail Likens, transportation plai. 52. Transportation Environmental Stud- Pale Alto, Calif., private communicationjuly ies of London (TEST), Quality Streets. How 28, 1989; Jane Gross, "Palo Alto Journal: Traditional Urban Centres Benefit from Traffic- Where Bicycleis King (And the Queen, calming(London: 1988). Too),"New York Tunes,June 26, 1989; Lisa Lapin, "CBS News Sees P.A. as the Bicycle 53. Ter Heide, "Recreational Use of the Capital," San Jose Mem.y News,August 23, Bicycle." 1988; Ellen Fletcher, City Council member, 54. James McGurn, On Your Bicycle. An Il- Palo Alto, Calif., private communication, Au- lustrated History of Cycling (London: John Mur- gust 7, 1989. ray Publishers, Ltd.,1987); A. Wilmink, 62. Lapin, "CBS News Sees P.A. as the Bi- "The Effects of State Subsidi; -ng of Bicycle cycle Capital." Facilities," Veio City '87 Conference; Mi- chael A. Replogle, "Major Bikeway Construc- 63. Beck, "Smart Cars. Smart Streets."

A 41: Notes (Chapters 7 and 8) (227) 64. Renner, Ream:king the Role of the Auto- dors," Washington. D.C., 1988; Rails-tomobile. Trails Conservancy, "27 Million Americans 65. Pucher, "Urban Travel Behavior." Enjoyed over 200 Rail-Trails in '88," Trail- blazer, January-March 1989. 66. Gasoline tax revenues in particularcan also support research in automotive fuel ef- 73. For a thorough guide to safe cycling ficiency. Potentially regressive effects of in- techniques and other aspects of bicycle transportation, see John Forester, Effective Cycling creased fuel taxes can be mitigated bya num- berofdirectandindirectmeasures: (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1984); Carl low-income drivers can be eligible, forexam- Hultberg, "Bike/Ped Accidents Drop: Motor Mayhem Continues," CityCyclist , ple, for tax coupons presented at thegas March/ pump. Tax revenues can also be used for Apiil 1989; Nadine Brozan, "Bicycle Riding home weatherization assistance to low-in- Up; Accidents Decline," New York Times June come households and aid in paying heating 10, 1989. fuel bills; Nancy Hirsh, Environmental Ac- 74. Among the many recent publications tion Foundation, Washington, D.C., private on urban form and growth management is communication, July 31, 1989. Madis Pihlak, ed., The City of the 21st Century, 37. Pucher, "Urban Travel Behavior"; Re- proceedings of The City of the 21st Century plogle, private communication; Ericksonet Conference, Tempe, Ariz., April 7-9, 1988. al., "Transportation Energy Conservation 75. For a comprehensive manualon bicy- Projects in Developing Countries." cle advocacy, see Harnik, The Buycle Advocate's 68. Replogle, Bicycles and Pubbc Transporta- Handbook; Clarke, private communication, tion; Walter Grabe and Joachim Utech, "The August 14. 1989. Importance of the Bicycle in Local Public 76. In a subsequent meeting with U.S. Passenger Transport: Facts and Experience Ttansportation Secretary Samuel Skinner, fromSelectedCountries,"International representatives of the League of American Commission on Traffic and Urban Planning, Wheelmen andother advocacygroups UITP Revue, March 1984; Br Og et al., "Pro- "secured a promise of full consultation in the motion and Planning for Bicycle Transporta- current development of national transportation." tion policy"; League of American Wheelmen, 69. Bicycle industry examples, including "Better Bicycling Sought for 120 Million Bi- factory closings in Kenya and Tanzania, from cyclists by Year 2000," press release, Balti- Mozer, private communication. more, Md., August 3, 1989. 77. "Argentina: Menem Faces Economic 70. World Bank,"Sub-SaharanAfrica Disaster Transport Program: Rural Travel and Trans- and Military Intimidation," port Project" (draft project proposal), un- Latinamerzca hess, July 6, 1989. published, 1989; John D. N. Riverson and 78. McGurn, On Your Bicycle. Beruard M. Chatelin, World Bank, Washing- ton, O.C., private communication, February 22, 1989. Chapter 8. Ending Poverty 71. Peter Harnik,TheBicycle Advocate's I. Quoted in Ben Whitaker. A Bridge of Peo- Handbook (Baltimore, Md.: League of Ameri- ple. A Personal View of Oxfam's First Forty Years can Wheelmen, 1989). (London: Heinemann, 1984). 72. Rails-to-TraiisConservancy, "Re- 2. Economy and industry from Jim Mac- storing Life to Abandoned Railroad Corti- Neill, "Strategics for Sustainable Economic

A...,, 4 (228) Notes (Chaptei 8) DeN elopment," Scientific Amencan , September the tables and figures in this chapter, up- 1989; travel from Richard Critchfield, "Sci- dated figures for China from Alan Heston, ence and the Villager: The Last Sleeper Unk ei sity of Pennsyl ania, Philadelphia, Pa., Wakes," Foreign Affairs , Fall 1982. private communication. September 22, 1989. In citations hereafter, Summers and Heston 3. Billionaires from Alan Farnham, "The refers to their article, database, and private Billionaires: Do They Pay Their Way?" For- communication. Groupings in Figure 1 are tune, September 11, 1989; millionaires es- based oi, countries' 1985 per capita income: timated from John Steele Gordon, "Why It rich nations are those above $6,000, middle- Costs So Much to Be Rich," Washington Post , income countries are between $2,500 and May 21, 1989; homeless from U.N. Centre $6,000, poor countries are between $1,000 for Human Settlements, New York, private and $2,500, and poorest are below $1,000; communication, November 1, 1989; diet ex- data for 1986-88 arc Worldwatch estimates. penditures from Calorie Control Council, At- lanta, Ga., private communication, October 6. Income distribution figures tend to un- 4,1989;undernutritionestimated from derstate disparities because they are cal- World Bank, Poverty and Hunger. Issues and op- culated for households despite differences in tions for Food Secunty in Developing Countnes household size: poor households are usually (Washington, D.C.: 1986); drinking water larger; share of population below average in- and sanitation based on United Nations Chil- come estimated from data in sources for dren's Fund (UNICEF), State of the World's Table 8-1; Egypt-Peru comparison based on Children 1989 (New York: Oxford University Summers and Heston and on Wocld Bank, Press, 1989); and on World Bank, Social In- World Development Report 1988 (New York: dwators of Development 1988 (Baltimore, Md.: Oxford University Press, 1988). Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988). 7. Nations' recordsstimated from Sum- 4. Early eighties estimates from U.N. Food mers and Heston; World Banl World Develop- and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Dynam- ment Report 1988; World Bank, World Develop- ics of Rural Poverty (Rome: 1986); World mentReport1989(New York:Oxford Bank, World Development Report 1980 (New University Press, 1989). York: Oxford University Press, 1980) and 8. Most malnutrition records from UNI- Wm Id Devehpment Report 1962 (New York: CEF, State of the World's Children 1989; Nicara- Oxford University Press, 1982). guan malnutrition from Stephen Kinzer, 5. In 1988, Robert Summers and Alan "Nicaragua's Economic CrisisIs Seen as Heston of the University of Pennsylvania Worsening," New York Times, October 16, used the voluminous and complicated results 1988; Salvadoran malnutrition from Lindsey of 20 years of United Nations, World Bank, Grusen, "Salvador's Poverty Is Called Worst and Organisation for Economic Co-opera- in Century," New York Times, October 16, tion and Development research to compile 1988; African life expectancy and hunger per capita gross domestic product figures ad- front World Bank and International Mone- justed to reflect purchasing power for 130 of tary Fund (IMF), Strengthemng Efforts to Reduce the world's 168 nations; Robert Summers Poverty, , Development Committee Paper 19 and Alan Heston, "A New Set of Inteena- (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1989). tional Comparisons of Real Product and 9. Infant mortality and quote from UNI- Price Level Estimates for 130 Countries, CEF, State of the World's Chiloren 1989. 1950-1985," Review of Income and Wealth , March 1988. A database on computer disk- 10. Worldwatch examined available esti- ettes that accompanied the Summers and mates of absol. noverty and income distri- Heston article was used to develop many of bution on a country-by-country basis for

4 3 Notes (Chapter 8) (229 )

both rural and urban areas, and compared Lives of Women in Minas Gerais,"Crasstoots them with data on economic and social in- Development,Vol. 11, No, 2, 1987. dicators and against estimates fo,similar countries. Worldwatch then mi,de its own es- 15. Lipton,Poor and the Poorest;Michael timate for each country, trying to reconcile Lipton,Poverty,Vndernutrition, and Hunge?, available data and apply a single standard of Staff Working Paper 597 (Washington, D.C.: poverty. Poverty in industrial countries is not World Bank, 1983); percentage of poor included in the global figures, because very under age of 15 and child mortality among little industrial-country poverty involves con- the poor estimated based on these two ditions of deprivation severe enough to be sources and on UNICEF,State of the World's classifiedas absolute poverty.Industrial Children 1989. countries together contain fewer than 10 mil- 16. Michael Lipton,Land Assets and Rural lion individuals who live in absolute pov- Poverty, ,Staff Working Paper 744 (Washing- ertya quantity too small to alter the global ton, D.C.: World Bank, 1985); Robert Cham- estimate substantially. bers,Rural Development: Putting the Last First 11. World Bank figure based onWorld De- (Harlow, Essex, U.K.: Longman Scientific velopment Report 1980andWorld Development and Technical, 1983). Report 1982,which estimated absolute pov- 17. Esther B. Fein, "Glasnost Is Opening erty at "nearly 1 billion" in 1980. In 1980, 1 the Door on Poverty,"New York Times,Janu- billion people constituted 22.3 percent of the ary 29, 1989. world population. In fact, figures in theWorld Development Reportscited add up to about 970 18. U.S. poverty from Spencer Rich, "Pov- million (if allowance is made for countries erty Level Stabilizes at 31 Million,"Washing- the World Bank did not count, such as Viet- ton Post ,October 19, 1989; equity trends nam, Laos, North Korea, and Kampuchea), from Stephen Rose and David Fasenfest, or 21.7 percent of the global 1980 popula- Family Incomes in the 1980s: New Thessure on tion. Wives, Husbands, and Young Adults(Washing- ton, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute, 1988); 12. Urban-rural division of poor estimated Robert D. Hamrin, "Sorry Americans as above for overall poverty rates. You're Still Not 'Better Off',"Challenge,Sep- 13. Extent of female poverty from Michael tember/October 1988. Lipton,The Poor and the Poorest. Some Interim 19. Eduardo Galeano,Open Veins of Latin Findings,Discussion Paper 25 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1988); Irene Tinker, America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent (New York: Monthly Review Press, 1973). "Feminizing Developmentfor Growth and Equity," Briefs on Development Issues 6, 20. William Thiesenhusen,Economic Devel- CARE, New York, undated. opment in the Third World ,2nd ed. (New York: Longmans, 1985); World Resources Insti- 14. Lower earnings from FAO,Women in tute,World Resources 1988-89(New York: Food Production(Rome: 1983); additional work time from Ben White, "No Time to Basic Books, 1988); Radha Sinha,Landless- ness: A Growing Pr( blem ,Economic and Social Spare,"New Internationalist,March 1988; lit- Deveiopment Paper 28 (Rome: FAO, 1984); eracy lag from UNICEF,State of the World's M. Riad El Ghonemy, ed., Children 1989;violence and lack of rights Development Strate- gies for the Rural Poor,Economic and Social from Lori Heise, "Crimes of Gender,"World Development Paper 44 (Rome: FAO, 1934) Watch,March/April 1989; Brazilian woman quoted in Maria Luiza de Melo Carvalho, 21. Poor increasingly laborers from Mi- "Earth Flies in All Directions: The Daily chael Lipton with Richard Longhurst,New (230) Notes (Chapter 8) Seeds and Poor People (Baltimore, Md.: Johns 29. World Bank, World Development Report Hopkins University Press, 1989); landless- 1988; World Health Organization from ness estimates from Sinha, Landlessness. A Susan Okie, "Health Crisis Confronts 1.3 Bil- Growing Problem; World Commission on Envi- lion," Washington Post , September 25, 1989. ronment and Development (WCED), Our Common Future (New York: Oxford University 30. World Bank, World Debt Tables External Press, 1987). Debt of Developing Countries, 1988-89 Edition, First Supplement and Vol. II (Washington, 22. Wage and price trends from Per Pins- D.C.: 1989). trup-Andersen, "Food Security and Struc- tural Adjustment," in Colleen Roberts, ed., 31. Net resource transfers from World Trade, Aid, and Policy Reform: Proceedings from Bank, World Debt Tables, First Supplement; the Eighth Agncultural Symposium (Washington, environmental impact of debt from WCED, D.C.: World Bank, 1988); labor force growth Our Common Future. from H. Jeffrey Leonard, "Overview: Envi- ronment and the Poor," in H. Jeffrey Leon- 32. Primary commodity dependence from ard et al., Environment and the Poor. Development Walden Bello, Brave New Third World? Strate- Strategies for a Common Agenda (New Bruns- gies for Survival ut the Global Economy, Food wick, NJ.: Transaction Books, 1989), unem- First Development Report 5 (San Francisco: plGyment and underemployment from Lip- Institute for Food and Development Policy, ton, Poor and the Poorest. 1989). 23. Vulnerability from Chambers, Putting 33. European tariff and cost of protection- the Last First, various articles in IDS Bulletin ism from World Bank, World Debt Tables, Vol. (Institute for Development Studies), April I. 1989. 34. Total capital flight from Matt Moffett, 24. Lipton,Poverty, Undernutrition,and "Mexico's Capital Flight Still Racks Economy Hunger. Despite the Brady Plan," Wall Street Journal, September 25, 25. Lipton, Poor and the Poorest; Chambers, 1989; Venezuela's capital flight from David R. Francis, "A U.S. Siren Putting the Last First . Song for Capital Flight," Christian Science 26. Use of laws against the poor from Rob- Monitor, March 27, 1989; Venezuela's debt ert Chambers et al., To the Hands of the Poor. from World Bank, World Debt Tables, First Water and Trees (New Delhi: Oxford Univer- Supplement. sity Press and IBH, 1989); Amnesty Intr national, Brazil: Authorized Violence in Rund Areas 35. UNICEF, Stale of the World's Children (London:1988); violence in India from 1989. Chambers, Putting the Last First; Richard W. 36. "Security HelpsProductivity,"Re- Franke and Barbara H. Chasin, Radical Reform search Brief (World Bank), Spring 1987; Rob- as Development. Kerala Slate, India (San Fran- ert Chambers, "Poverty, Environment and cisco: Institute for Food and Development the World Bank: The Opportunity for a New Policy, in press). Professionalism," Institute for Development 27. James Brooke, "Ivnry Coast Church to Studies (IDS), Brighton, Sussex. U.K., Sep- Toy..-r Over St. Peter's," New York Tunes, De- tember 1987. cember 19, 1988. 37. Shubh K. Kumar and David Hotchkiss. 28. World Bank, World Development Report Consequences of Deforestation for Women's Time 1988; "Social Sector Pricing Policy," Research Alloiation, Agnt ultard Production, and Nutntwn Bnef (World Bank), June 1989. in Hill Areas of Nepal (Washington, D.C.: In-

,0:, '..4. t) Notes (Chapter 8) (231 )

ternational Food Policy Research Institute 48. Public Data Access,Toxic Wastes and (IFPRI), 1988). Race in the United States. A National Report on the 38. Ibid. Racial and Sono-Economic Charactenshcs of Com- munities with Hazardous Waste Sites(New York: 39. Sheldon Annis, "Costa Rica's Dual United Church of Christ Commission for Debt: A Story About a Little Country that Did Racial Justice, 1987); Jay M. Gould, Quality Things Right" (unpublished), prepared for of Life in American Neighborhoods: Levels of Af- World ResourcesInstitute,Washington, fluence,Toxic Waste, and Cancer Modality in D.C., June 1987. Residential zip Code Areas(Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1986); Dick Russell, "Envi- 40. Ibid. ronmental Racism,"Arnicus Journal,Spring 41. Leonard,"Overview:Environment 1989. and the Poor." 49. UNICEF,State of the World's Children 42. Ibid. 1989;impacts of hard times on poor from, for instance, Michael Mandel, "And If It 43. N.S. Jodha, "Common Property Re- Comes, the Poor Will Really Take a Hit," sources and Rural Poor in Dry Regions of Business Week,April 10, 1989. India,"Economic and Political Weekly,July 5, 1986. 50. Quote from Robert Chambers, Hyderabad, India, private communication. 44. Ibid.; Botswana from Solomon Bekure September 7, 1989. and Neville Dyson-Hudson, "The Operation and Viability of the Second Livestock Devel- 51. Quoted in Chambers,Putting the Last opment Project," International Livestock First . Center for Africa, cited by Rick Lomba, inde- 52. Alan B. Durning,Actwn at the Grassroots. pendent filmmaker, Testimony before Sub- Fighting Poverty and Environmental Decline, committee on Foreign Operations, Com- Worldwatch Paper 88 (Washington, D.C.: mitte-!onAppropriations,U.S.Sen-te, Worldwatch Institute, January 1989). Washington, D.C., May 1, 1986. 53. Inter-AmericanFoundation(IAF), 45. Joshua Bishop, "Indigenous Social "Project History: Centro de Educación Téc- Structures, Formal Institutions, and the Man- nwo. Humanistica Agropecuaria (CETHA)," agement of Renewable Natural Resources in Arlington, Va., undated; Kevin Healy, 1AF, Mali" (draft), Sahelian Department, World Arlington, Va., private communication, Oc- L Washington, D.C., August 1988. tober 4, 1989; female literacy benefits from 46. Tun Campbell, "Urban Development Lipton,Poor and the Poorest;Jodi L. Jacobson, in the Third World: Environmental thlem- P/annuig the GlobalFamily, ,Worldwatch Paper mas and the Urban Poor," in Leonard et al., 80 (Washington, D.C.: ,',irldwatch Institute, Environment and the Poor; airpollution from December 1987). United Nations Environment Programme 54. Mahbub Hossam,Credit for A lleviation of and World Health Organization, Assessment of Rural Poverty. The Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, triban AirQuality (Nairobi: Global Environ- Research Report 65 (Washington,D.C.: ment Monitoring System, 1988). IFPRI, 1988); Kristini,nore, "Banking on a Better Life,"Chnstian Science Monitor, 47. Leonard,"Overview:Eiwironment March 15, 1989. and the Poor"; Centre for Science and Envi- ronment,The State of 1ndia'sEnvironment 55. Tushaar Shah, "Gains from Social 1984-85(New Delhi: 1985). Forestry: Lessons from West Bengal," IDS 1;17-2 4 6 (232) Notes (Chapters 8 and 9) Discussion Paper 243, Brighton, Sussex, 3. Foi military contractors' prof:tabikty, U.K., April 1988. see Seymour Melman, "An Er,..aiomic Alter- native to the Arms Rare. Conversion from 56. Anil Agarwal and Sunita Narain, "The Military to civilian Economy," SANE Educa- Greening of India," Wits!, ated Weekly of Incha , tion Fund, Washington, D.C., 1987; Inga June 4, 1989. Thorsson, "Disarmament and Development: 57. UNICEF, State of the World's Children An __lea Whose Time Should Have Come," 1989. IDS Bulletin (Institwe for Development Stud- ies), October 1985; Lloyd J. Dumas and Su- 58 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Com- zanne Gordon, "Economic Conversion: An mittee, "Unraveling Networks of Corrup- Exchange," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, _ion," in David C. Korten, ed., Community June/July 1986. Even in the case of a military Management. Asian Expenence and Perspectives contract cancellation, contractors can look to (West Hartford, Conn.: Kurnarian Press indemnificationno comparable payments :986); Chambers, Plating the Lau Fu-st, assist workers wiiose livelihoods are at stake. 59. Franke and Chasin, Radical Tufor,,, lonathan Feldman, "An Introduction to Eco- Development. Kerala State. nomic Conversion," Briefing Paper No. 1, National Commission for Economic Conver- 60. bid. sion and Disarmament, Washington, D.C., May 1988. 61. Ibid. 4. Because technical and scientific person- 62. P,nstrup-Andersen, "Food Security nel in military industt ies make up a much and Strucmal Adjustment" larger portion of the work force than el civil- 63. Linda Feldman, "Bush Annoim, ian enterprises (in the United States, 15 per- Plan to Forgn e Sub-Sahalan Africa's Deb," cent compared with 3 percent), engineers ChiutianScience Momtor,Jnly10,1989; and scientists may find it difficult to find em- Michael quint, "lir?..,'s Debt Flan Forcing ployment in the civilian sphere; see "Labor Big Banks to Increase Losses," New York and Conversion," Economic Notes, February Times, September 21, 1989. 1986. 5. Jonathan Feldman et al., "Criteria for Economic Conversion Legislation," Briefing Chapter 9. Converting to a Peaceful Paper No. 4, National Commission for Eco- Economy nomic Conversion and Disarmament, Wash- 1. For a more detailed discussion, see Mi- ington, D.C., December 1988; Dumas and chael Renner, National Seiunty. The Economic Gordon, "Economic Corn ersion: An Ex- and EnvironmentalDimensions, Worldwatch change." Paper 89 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- 6. Employment Research Associates, stitute, May 1989). Bankrupting America (Lansing, Mich.: 1989). 2. For global military spending and arms 7. U.S.arms production employment, exports, see Arms Control and Disarmament 1950-91, from U.S. Department of Defense, Agency (ACDA), World Milawy Expenditures NationalDefenseBudgetEstimates for FY and Anns Transfers 1988 (Washington, D.C.: 1990/91 (Washington, D.C.: Office of the U.S. Government Printing Office,1989); Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptrol- Michael R. Gordon, with Stephen Engelberg. ler), 1989). "Military Ordered to Draft a 5% Cut in 1992-94 Spending," New York Times, Novem- 8. Klaus Schomacker et al., Alternative Pro- ber 18, 1989. duktion Statt Matting. Gewerk.r-h,,,,?liche Notes (Chapter 9) (233 ) twen fiir Sinnvolle Arbeit und Sozial Nfitzliche Pro- Wilke and Wulf, "Manpower Conversionin duke (Bund Verlag: Köln, 1987). Defense-Related Industry." Thesescenarios 9. Employment lossin1963-78 from deal only with the direct employment effects; Steve Schofield, "Employment and Secu- they take into account neither the considera- rityAlternatives to Trident. An Interim Re- ble indirect job losses in supplier industries port," Peace Research Reports No. 10. Uni- nor the impact on what economists call "in- versity of Bradford, U.K., July 1986; 1978-86 duced employment": jobs sustamed bypur- job losses from John Lovering, "Arms Con- chases made by defense workers. version into the 1990s: The Bnush Experi- 16. Because a START accord willnot pre- ence," paper presented at conversion confer- scribe how to meet the numerical ence in Cortona, Italy, April 22, 1989. weapons limits it codifies, additional optionsare possi- 10. William Hartung,The Econenuc Conse- ble within that range; see Stephen Alexis quences of a Nuclear Freeze(New York: Council Cain,The START Aguetnen! Strategm Opnu on Economic Priorities, 1984), Employment and Budgeta7y Savings(Washington, D.C.: Research Associates data from Peter Wilke Center on Budget and PolicyPriorities, and Herbert Wulf, "Manpower Conversion 1988). The Soviet Union might saveas much in Defense-Related Industry," Disarmament as $11 billion per year. For STATF's impact and Employment Program, Working Paper on Soviet military spending and for the con- No. 4, International Labour Organisation, ventional and naval forces scenarios,see Geneva, 1986. In 1985 dollars, $1 billion Barry Blechman wi'h Ethan Guunann, "A spern on pollution control would create 19,- $100 Bilhon Understandinr,"SAIS Review 547 jobs; in 1981 dollars, thesame nominal (School of Advanced International Sotdies, amount would generate 16,380 jobs; World- Johns HopkinsUniversity),Summer-Fall watch Institute, based on Roger H. Bezdeket 1989. al., "The Economic and Employment Effects of Investments in Pollution Abatement and 17 Feldman et al., "Criteria for Econonp, Control Technologies,"Ambio,Vol. 18, No. Conversion Legislation." 5, 1989. 18. Seymour Melman, "Problems of Con- 11. West German data from Wilke and version from Military to Ca% ihan Economy Wulf, "Manpowei Conversionm Defense- An Agenda of Topics, Qiiestions, and Hy- Related Industry"; Indian figures from Mary potheses,"Bulktin of Pea& Pioposals,Vol 16, Kaldor,The Baroque Arsenal (NewYork: Hill No 1, 1985 and Wang, 1981). 19. Ibid. 12. Forl more detailed discussion,see Mi- 20 Seymour chael Dee Oden, AMilualy Dollar Really Is Melman, Mops UUhoul Thoduction Diffnent: The Economic Impacts of ilhhtary Spend- (NewYorkAlfred A.Knopf, ing Reconsidered(Lansing, MiA.: Employment 1983). Research Associates, 1988). 21. See Greg Bischak, "Facing the Second 13. For a discussion of corporate diver- Ckneration of the Nuclear Weapons Com- p:ex. Renewal of the Nuclear Production sification attempts, see Feldman et al., "CII- teria for Economic Com ersmn Legislation." Base or Economic Conversion?" in Lloyd Dumas and Mai ek Thee, eds.,Making Peace 14 Renner,National Security. The Economic Possible(Elmsford, N.Y.: Pergamon Press, and EnvuonmPntal Dimensions. 1989). 15. Employment total from ibid., assump- 22. Dumas and Gordon, "Economic )11- tions on productivity gains and inflation from velsion: An Exchange." (234) Notes (Chapter 9) 23. For a discussion of the Implications of 28. Michael Renner, "Syyords Into Con- the question "conyersion to what?" see MI- sumer Goods," World Watch, July /August chad Renner, "Conversion to a Peaceful 1989. Economy. Criteria, Objectives, and Constitu- encies," Bulletin of Peace Proposals, Vol. 19, 29. ACDA, World Military Expra.ditures and No. 1, 1988. Arms Transfers 1988. 24. Wilke and Wulf, "Manpower Conver- 30. "China Invents the Entrepreneurial sion in Defense-Related Industry." Army," Economist, May 14, 1988; "Military Plant Goes Civilian," China Daily, November 25. The Conference of Mayors study 23, 1987; Lu Yun, "War Industry Turns Out found a net gain of 6,600 jobs, on average, Civilian Goods," Beijing Rernew, August 3, for every $1 billion shifted from military 1987. spending to the examined urban programs. Over five years, the proposed transfer of 31. Renner,"SwordsIntoConsumer $150 billion would generate close to1 mil- Goods." lion jobs more than the same amount spent in the military sector would have created. See 32. Marta Dassu, "The Problem of Recon- Employment Research Associates, A Shift in version of the Military Industry: The Case of Military Spending to Amenca's Cities, Report China," Ouasional Papers No. 2 (Rome: Prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors Center for the Study of International Rela- (Washington, D.C., and Lansing,Mich.; tions, 1988); SIPRI Yearbook 1988, fl'orld Ar- 1988). mamenu and Disarmament (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988). 26. Auto industry employment figures are for 1986, see Motor Vehicle Manufacturers 33. AlexandnRemisov,"Disarmament Association, Facts and Figures '89 (Detroit, Treaties and Conversion of Military Produc- Mich.. 1989). For an analysis of the automo- tion in USSR," /DOC Internazionale, Septem- bile's conuibution to air pollution and global bor/October 1988, Alexei I. Izyumov, "So- warming, see Michael Renner, Rethinking the viet EconomicConversion," TheNew Role of the Automobile; Worldwatch Paper 84 Economy, October/November 1989; William (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, J. Broad, "A Potential New Soviet Export June 1988). Product: Cold-Wal -Surplus Missiles," New 27. U.S. pollution control employment is a York Times, Ouober 22, 1989; "In Gorba- Worldwatch estimate, based on Bezdek et al., ches 's Words. 'To Preserve the Vitality of "The Economic and Employment Effects of Ciyilization'," New York Tinies, December 8, InvestmentsinPollution Abatement and 1988. Control Technologies." The authors calculate that business Investment for pollution 34. Number of Soviet factories to be con- control (12 percent of tota! U.S. spending for verted from John Lovering, University of environmental protection in 1985) created Bristol, U.K., private communication, Octo- some 167,000 jobs. Assuming that the re- ber 28, 1989; Pete! Gumbel, "Gorbachev An- maining 88 percent of expenditures has a nounces Spending on Soviet Military for First similar employment effect, the total number Time," Wall Street Journal, May 31, 1989; of jobs is just under 1.4 million. For Euro- overall arms production cut and Ry zhkov an- pean Community, see Werner Schneider, nouncement from Michael Dobbs, "Soviets "Albeit und Umwelt," in Lothar Giindling Admit Massive Deficit, Callfor Defense and Beate Weber, eds., Dicke brit in Europa Spending Cuts," Washington Post, June 8, (Heidelberg, West Germany. C.F. Willer, 1989; tank cuts fiom Michael R. Gordon, 1988). "Soviets Cite 40% Cut in Tank Output," New ,0# Notes (Chapter 9) (235 ) York Tinto, July 22, 1989; trade-off between DependencyandRevitahzingAmerica's military spending and housing construction Economy," Appendix 1: Selected Recent De- from L. Veselovsky, Deputy Head of the All- fense Cutbacks and Layoffs, Center for Eco- Union Central Council of Trade Unions in nomic Conversion (CEC), Mountain View, Moscow, in "Notes on the Discussions at the Calif., May 1988, and from Seymour Mel- U.S.-U.S.S R. Symposium on Conversion man, Chair of National Commission for Eco- from Military to Civilian Economy" (co- nomic Conversion and Disarmament, "Eco- chaired by Prof. Seymour Melman, Columbia nomic Conversion: The Missing Link for University, New York, and Dr. Ivan Ivanov, Economic Security," Statement to Subcom- Institute of World Economy and Interna- mittee on Economic Stabilization, Commit- tional Relations, Moscow), Moscow, June 14 tee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, 16, 1984; environmental protection budget U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, from Maria Welfens, "Umweltpolitik im D.C., June 13, 1989; job losses from base SozialismuF: Diagnose, Analyse, Perspek- closures from U.S. Congressional Budget tive," in Kuct P. Tudyka, ed., Umwellpolitikin Office, "Past Base Closures and Realign- Ost- und Westeuropa (Opladen, West Germany: ments: costs and Savings," Staff Working Leske & Budrich, 1988). Paper, Washington, D.C., February 1989; 35. Civilian production in military plants Gordon, with Engelberg, "Military Ordered from Paul Grenier with Eric Stubbs, "A Fare- to Draft a 55 Cut." wellto Arms? Soviets Rethink Defense 39. OfficeofEconomicAdjustment, Spending," CEP Research Report, Councilon 1961-1986: 25 Years of Cwilian Reuse. Summary Economic Priorities, New York, 1989; wash- of Completed MilVary Base Economic Adjustment ing machine example from "Noteson the Projects (Washington, D.C.:1986); Robert Discussionsatthe U.S.-U.S.S.R. Sympo- Krinsky, "Community Programs Aid the Pen- sium"; increased food equipment andcon- tagon," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October sumer goods production by military plants 1986. from Central Intelligence Agency and the DefenseIntelligence Agency (CIA/DIA), 40. CEC, "Conversion Organizer's Up- "The Soviet Economy in 1988: Gorbachev date," Mountain View, Calif., variousissues; Changes Course," report presented to Sub- Louise McNeilly, CEC, Mountain View, committee on National Security Economics, Calif., private communication, August 26, Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, 1989; Martin Melkonian and Russell M. Washington, D.C., April 14, 1989, and from Moore, "Cutbacks in Defense Spending: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Outlook and Options for the Long Island Research Service, USSR Agriculture and Trade Economy," BusinessResearchInstitute, Report Situation and Outlook Series, Washing- Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y, Febru- ton, D.C., May 1989. ary 1989; Wilbur Maki et al., "Military Pro- duction and the Minnesota Economy," Min- 36 Remisov, "Disarmament Ti canes and nesota Task Force on Economic Conversion, Conversion of Military Production in USSR"; St. Paul, Minn., May 1989. CIA/DIA, "The Soviet Economy in 1988." 41. For an overview of current conversion 37. Izyuniov, "Soviet Economic Conver- initiatives,see CEC, "Conversion Orga- sion." nines Update," variols issues. 38. U.S. arms production employment 42. For International Association of Ma- from U.S. Depai tment of DefenseVational chinists, see Hai tung, The Economic Conse- Defense Budget Estimates; recent military indus- quences of a Nuclear Fieeze. Even during 1982 try job losses from "Overcoming Defense and 1985, when military procurement spend- (236) Notes (Chapter 9) mg rose by 25 percent, employment in mili- 47. For Labour Party position, see Los er- tary industry only increased by 8.6 percent, ing, "Arms Conversion into the 1990s: The "Labor and Conversion,"Economic Notes, British Experience"; local conversion com- February 1986. mittees from Jim Barnes and John Chowcat, "Arms Conversionfrom Words to Action," 43. "A Healthy Economy in a Peaceful Sanity,March 1987. World" (flyer), National Jobs With Peace Campaign, Boston, undated; Frank Cle- 48. Lovering, "Arms Conversion into the mente, Jobs With Peace Washington office, 1990s: The British Experience." private communication, February 3, 1987; 49. Ibid.; Paul Quigley, "Conversion in Lisa Peattie, "Economic Conversion as a Set the United Kingdom: A Review of Recent De- of Organizing Ideas,"Bulle,in of Peace Propos- velopments,"The New Ecomnny,Oaober/No- als ,Vol. 19, No. 1, 1988. vember 1989. 44. U.K. military spendmg (in fiscal year 50. West German adjustment conditions 1986/87 prices)grew from15.6 billion discussed in John E. Ullmann, "Conversion pounds (1 pound, at 1987 exchange rates, Studies in West Germany,"The New Economy, equals $1.87) in 1978/79 to a peak of 18.8 October/November 1989; Schomacker et al., billion in 1985/86, but then declined to 17.5 Alternative Produktion Stott Riistung. billion in 1988/89; Paul Quigley, "The Op- 51. Alternative product pi orosals have portunity of Disarmament: Investigating Al- focused on less-polluting eq nentfor ternatives for Military-Supported Employ- power plants, water and waste treatment, ment in Coventry," Coventry Alternative railways, and wind energy; Schon.acker et al., Employment Research, Coventry, U.K., Oc- Alternative Produktion Statt Riistung. tober 1988. Lovering, "Arms Conversion into the 1990s: The British Experience." The 52. Ibid. Trident nuclear submarine program, es- 53. Klaus Mehrens, "Alternative Produk- timated to absorb 6-8 percent of the total tion und Gewerkschaftliche Politik,"Die Aht- military budget, is likely to create no more bestimmung,April/May 1984; Schomacker et than 2 percent of British military industry al.,Alternative Produktion Statt Riistung. employment; Schofield, "Employment and SecurityAlternatives to Trident." 54. Mehrens, "AlternativeProduktion und Gewerkschaftliche Politik"; Schomacker 45. Although no proposals were directly etal., Alternatwe Produktion Statt Rhstung. taken up, the company did eventually move into some of the areas identified in the plan; 55. Inga Thorsson,In Pursuit of Disarma- Schofield, "Employment and SecurityAl- ment. conversion from Military to Civil Production ternatives to Trident." Perhaps the most in Sweden(Stockholm: Liber Allmktna Förla- comprehensive account of the Lucas cam- get, 1984). paign can be found in Dave Elliott and Hilary 56. Ibid. Wainwright,The Lucas PlanA New Trade Un- ionism in the Making? (London:Allison and 57. Follow-up report information from Busby, 1982). Inga Thorsson, private cotnmunication, Au- gust 17, 1989;l'eckans Afflirerreport from 46. Lovering, "Alms Conversion into the Bengt Ljung, "Under the Gun: How Much 1990s: The British Experience": Klaus Scho- Defens Can Sweden Afford?'Sweden Now, macker et al.,Sichere Arbeitsplätze und Niitzhche No. 2, 1989; Björn Hagelin, "The Prospects Produkte, Aliliteirpohtik Dokumentation,Vol. 8, for Conversion in Sweden,"The New Econ- No. 39/40, 1984. omy,October/November 1989. Notes (Chapters 9 and 10) (237) 58. Pieter van Rossem, "Ontwapening en make recommendations for policy initiatives Ontwikkeling: Op Dood Spoor," Derde We- by the U.N. Secretary General; Uppsala's reld , July 1986; "An Act to Provide :or the Center for Military Conversion covered in Conversion of Technologies and Skills Used CEC, "Conversion Organizers'Update," in the Nuclear Weapons Iadustry to Civilian May 1989. Uses," Bill 18, Introduced by Richard John- son, MPP, Scarborough West, Canada, No- vember 10, 1987; Mario Pianta, "Conversion Chapter 10. Picturing a 3ustainable in Italy," The New Economy, October/Novem- Society ber 1989. I. World Commission on Environment 59. "Criteria for Conversion Legislation and Development, Our Common Future (New and Guide to Three Bills in the 101st Con- York: Oxford University Press, 1987). gress" (fact sheet), National Commission for Economic Conversion and Disarmament, 2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., July 1989; recent efforts Policy Optwns foiStabilizing Global Climate to create a single conversion bill foundered; (draft)(Washington, D.C.:1989); Gregg Jennifer Adibi, "Legislative Labor Pains," Marland et al., Estimates of CO2 Emissions from Plowshare Press, Summer 1989. Fossil Fuel Burning and Cement Manufactunng, Based on the United Natwns Energy Statistics and 60. The Defense Economic Adjustment the U.S. Bureau of Mines Cement Manufactunng Council is to be composed of various cabinet Data (Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National members, including the Secretary of De- Laboratory, 1989);, United Nations Secretar- fense, six management representatives from iat, "Long-Range Global Population Projec- nondefense companies, and six union repre- tions as Assessed in 1980," Population Bulletin sentatives; H.R. 101, "The Defense Eco- of the United Nations (New York: 1983). nomic Adjustment Act," 101st U.S. Con- gress. 3. Worldwatch Institute estimate based on "World List of Nuclear Power Plants," Nu- 61. "The Defense Economic Adjustment clear News, August 1989; Christopher Flavin, Act." Reassessmg Nuclear Power: The Fallout from Cher- nobyl ,Worldwatch Paper 75 (Washington, 62. Ibid. As an alternative to "taxing"con- D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, March 1987). tractors' revenues, Representative Weissis now considering providingthefunding 4. John J. Taylor, "Improved and Safer through a 1-2 percent set-aside within the Nuclear Power," Science, April 21,1989; defense budget, "Statement of Representa- "Outlook on Advanced Reactors," Nucleonics tive i'ed Weiss," Hearings on Title II of the Week, March 30, 1989; Amory B. Lovins and Defense Production Act Pertaining to Eco- L. Hunter Lovins, Bnttle Power Energy Strategy nondc Conversion, Subcommittee on Eco- for National Secunty (Andover, Mass.. Brick nomic Stabilization, Standing Conunittee on House Publishing Co., 1982); R.H. Williams Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, U.S. and FLA. Feiveson, "Diversion-Resistance HouseofRepresentatives,Washington, Criteria for Future Nuclear Power," Center D.C., June 13, 1989. for Energy and Environme,- alStudies, Princeton University, Princeton, N.J., May 63. "The Defense Economic Adjustment 22, 1989; Klaus Michael Meyerabich and Ber- Act.," Title 1, Sec. 102, paragraph 2. tram Schefold, Die Grenzen der Atomwitschaft 64. The U.N. Centre for Scierce and (Munich: Verlag C.H. Beck, 1986). Technology for Development recently spon- 5. Population figure is authors' estimate sored a gathering of conversien experts to derived from United Nations (UN), Depart- (23 8) Notes (Chapter 10) ment of International Economic and Social newable Energy and Climate Change, Wash- Affairs (DIESA),World Populatwn Prospects ington, D.C., June 14-15, 1989, Worldwatch 1988 (New York. 1989); extrapolating from Institute estimates based on Shepard Bu- medium projection for 2025 yields 8.85 bil- chanan, Bonneville Power Administration, lion. Portland, Ore., private communication and printout, July 28, 1989. 6. Population Information Program, "Population and Birth Planning in the Peo- 14. Mark Newman, "West Germany to ple's Republic of China," Population Repons , Build 150 MWe of Wind Farms by Mid- January/February 1932; UN, DIESA, World 1990s," lnternatwnal Solar Energy Intelligence Population Prospects 1988, Population Refer- Report, November 22, 1988; Department of ence Bureau, 1989 World Population Data Sheet Non-Conventional Energy Sources, Ministry (WasIngton, D.C.: 1989). of Energy, Annual Report 1987-88 (New Delhi, India: undated). 7. UN, 1987 Energy Statutics Yearbook (New York: 1989); Meridian Corporation, "Char- 15. Christopher Flavin,Wind Power. A acterization of U.S. Energy Resources and Turning Point, Worldwatch Paper 45 (Wash- Reserves," prepared for Deputy Assistant ington,D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, July Semtary for Renewable Energy, U.S. De- 1981). partment of Energy (DOE), Alexandria, Va., June 1989. 16. Worldwatch Institute estimate, based on Larry Langemeier, Kansas State Univer- 8. D. Groues and I. Segal, Solar Energy in sity, Manhattan, Kans., private communica- Israel (Jerusalem: Ministry of Energy & In- tion, November 3, 1989. frastructure,1984); International Energy Agency (IEA), Renewable Sources of Energy 17. UN, 1987 Energy Statistics Yearbook. (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-opera- 18. Worldwatch Institute estimate based tion and Development, 1987). on D.O. Hall et al., Biomass for Energy m Devel- 9. Paul Savoldelli, Luz International Ltd., oping Countnes (Elmsford, N.Y.: Pergamon private communication and printout, July 9, Press, 1982); Daniel Deudney and Christo, 1989, Charles Komanoff, Komanoff Energy pher Flavin, Renewable Energy. The Power to Associates, New York, private communica- Choose (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., tion and printout, February 10, 1989. 1983); and British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (London: 1989). 10. H.M. Hubbard, "Photovoltaics Today and Tomorrow," Science ,April 21, 1989; 19. Lynn Wright, Oak Ridge National Solar Energy ResearchInstitute(SERI), Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., private com- "Photos oltaics. Electricity from Sunshine," munication, August 25, 1989, Norman Hin- unpublished, Golden, Colo., 1989. man, SERI, Boulder, Coloprivate communication, August 25, 1989. 1 I. Hubbard, "Photovoltalcs";Chiisto- pher Flavin, Electricity From Sunhght. The Emer- 20. Worldwatch Institute estimate based gence of Photoz.oltaics (Washington, D.C.: U.S. on Brad Karmen, U.S. Department of Agri- 'iovernrnent Printing Office, 1984). culture (USDA), Washington, D.C., private communication, October 25, 1989, on En- 12. Hubbard, "Photovoltaics"; V. Flame ergyInformationAdministration(EIA), Gilmore, "Solar Shingles," Popular Saence, A lonthly Energy Review, , March If 89 (Wash- June 1989. ington, D.C.: DOE, 1989). on Wright, private 13. Robert R. Lynette, "Wind Energy Sys- communication, and on Hinman, private tems," Paper presented to the Forum on Re- conununication.

/-, ...) 0 Notes (Chapter 10) (239)

21. UN,1987 Energy Stanstics Yearbock. Conserved Energy in New Refrigmators and 22. Ronald DiPippo, "International De- Freezers," American Council for an Energy- velopments in Geothermal Power Develop- Efficient Economy, Washington, D.C., 1986 ment,"Geothermal Resources Council Bulletin: 30. Marc Ross, "Industrial Energy Con- May 1988. servation,"Natural Resource Journal,August 23. Meridian Corpoi ation, "Energy Sys- 1984; Marc Ross, "Industrial Energy Conser- tem Emissions and Matériel Requirements," vation and the Steel Industry,"Energy, The prepared for U.S. DOE, Alexandria, Va., InternationalJournal, October/November February 1989; Savoldelli, private communi- 1987. cation. 31. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology 24. Worldwatch Institute estimates based Assessment,Industryd Fnergy Use(Washing- on Savoldelli, private communication and ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, printout, and on EIA,Monthly Energy Review, 19-83). March 1989, assuming a solar-only mode and a capacity factor of 26 percent for the solar 32. Bundesministerium rur VerkehrVer- kehr in Zahlen/987 (Bonn: 1987). thermal stations; Paul Gipe, Paul Gipe and Associates, Tehachapi, Calif., private com- 33. Marcia D. Lowe,The Bicycle Vehicle for munication and printout, October 22, 1989. a Small Planet ,Worldwatch Paper 90 (Wash- 25. Christopher Flavin and Alan Durning, ington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, Septem- ber 1989); A. Wilmink, "The Effects of State Building on Success: The Age of Energy Efficiency,, Worldwatch Paper 82 (Washington, D.C.: Subsidizing of Bicycle Facilities,"Velo City '87 Worldwatch Institute, March 1988). Congress Planning for the Urban Cyclist,proceedings of the Third International Velo City 26. Deborah Bleviss,The New Oil Cruis and Congress, Groningen, the Netherlands, Sep- Fuel Economy Technologres: Preparing the Light tember 22-26, 1987; Michael A. Replogle, Transportation Industry for the1990's (New "Major Bikeway Construction Effort in the York: Quorum Press, 1988). Netherlands,"Urban Transportation Abroad, 27. Flavin and Durning,Building on Success; Winter 1982; David Peltz, Davis Department Arthur Rosenfeld and David Hafemeister, of Public Works, Davis, Calif., private com- "Energy-Efficient Buildings,"Scientific Ameri- munication, July 28, 1989; Michael A. Replo- can,April 1988; Peter Weiss, "Lighting the gle,Bicycles and Public Transportation. New Links Way Towards More Efficient Lighting,"Home to Suburban Transit Markets,2nd ed. (Washing- Energy,january/February 1989. ton. D.C.: The Bicycle Federation, 1988). 28. José Goldemberg et al., "An End-Use 34. Worldwatch Institute estimate based Oriented Global Energy Strateg)" in Annual on International Road Federation,World Review, Inc.4nnualReview of Energy,,Vol. 10 Road Statistics 1981-1985(Washington, D.C.: (Palo Alto, Calif.: 1985). 1986), and on Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association,Facts and Figure '87(Detroit, 29. Jorgen Norgaard, Technical Univer- Mich.: 1987); "The Motorization of the 3rd sity of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark, private World,"National Association of Railroad Passen- communications,October28-29, 1987; gers News,July 1987. Howard Geller, "Energ/-Efficient Residen- tial Appliances: Performance Issues and Pol- 35. Share discarded of various materials icy Options,"IEEE Technology and Society Mag- and energy savings of aluminum and glass azine,March 1986; David B. Goldstein and recycling from C)nthi... Pollock, AliningUrban Peter Miller, "Developing Cost Cm ves for Wastes. 7'he Potential for Recycling,Worldwatch

2 5 4 (240) Notes (Chapter 10) Paper 76 (Washington, D.0 . Worldwatch In- cure Organization (FAO), Ttopu al Forest Re- stitute, April 1987); energy savings of steel soutces , Forestry Paper 30 (Rome. 1982). recycling from William U. Chandler, Maten- 44. Per capita cropland area calculated als Rerychng: The l'iltue of NecessityWorld- front FAO, Production Yearbook :987 (Rome' watch Paper 56 (Washington, D.C.: World- 1988), and from Population Reference Bu- watchInstitute,October1983);energy reau, 1989 World Population Data Sheet; as- savings of newsprint recycling from Roberta sumed cropland expansion from Francis Forsell Stauffer, "Energy Savings From Re- Urban, "Agricultural Resources Availabil- cycling," Resource Recycling, January/Febru- .. ity,Vorld Agnculture Situation Ind Outlook Re- ary 1989. port, USDA, Economic Resc.arch Service, 36. Pollock, Mining Urban Wastes . Washington, D.C., June 1989. 37. Chandler, Matenals Rerychng; Pollock, 45. Walter V. C. Reid, "Sustainable Devel- Mining Urban Wastes. opment: Lessons from Success," Environ- ment, May 1989; International Council for 38. Donald F. Barnett and Robert W. Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF)-Nitrogen Crandall, Up From the Ashes The Rue of the Steel Fixing Tree Association International Work- Minim!l intheUnited States(Washington, shop, Perenmal Sesbama Species in Agroforestry D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1986). Systoo (Nairobi: ICRAF,- 1989). 39. Kirs:en U. Oldenburg and Joel S. 46. Sandra Postel, "Halting Land Degra- Hirschhorn, "Waste Reduction: A New Strat- dation," in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the egy to Avoid Pollution," Environment , March World 1989 (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1987. 1989). 40. "Cost of Packaging Food Could Ex- 47. Ibid.;grain fed tolivestock from ceed Farm Net," Journal of Commerce, August USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), 12, 1986. World Wheat and Coarse Grams Reference Tables (unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C.: 41. Lester R. Brown and Jodi L. Jacobson, August 1988), and Gerald Ostrowski, USDA, The Future of Urbanization Facing the Ecologwal FAS,privatecommunication, September and Economic Constraints, Worldwatch Paper 77 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 1989 May 1987), Shanghai example from Yue-Man 48. For discussion of the work of the Land Yeurig, "Urban Agriculture in Asia," The Institute,see Evan Eisenberg, "Back to Food Energy Nexus Program of the United Eden," Atlantw Monthly, November 1989, Nations University, Tokyo, September, 1985. Wes Jackson, Altars of Unhewn Stone. Science and the Earth (San Francisco: North Point 42. Peter Edwards, Aquaculture: A Compo- Press, 19871. nent of Low Cost Sanitation Technology (Wash- ington, D.C.: United Nations Development 49. Omar Sattanr, "The Shrinking Gene Programme and World Bank, 1985). Pool," New Scientut , July 29, 1989; National Research Council, Amaranth: Modern Prospects 43. Assumes worldwide soil erosion rate for an Ancient Crop (Washington, D.C.: Na- of 24 billion tons per year and forest loss of tional Academy Press, 1984). 11 million hectares per year; see Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf, Soil Erosion Quiet 50. Sandra Postel and Loll Heise, Refotest- Crisis in the World Economy, Worldwatch Paper ing the Eat th, Worldwatch Paper 83 (Wash- 60 (Washington, D.C.. Worldwatch Institute, ington, D.C.: Woddwatch Institute, April Septembei 1984); U.N. Food and Agricul- 1988).

D Notes (Chapto 10 ) (241 ) 51. Philip M. Fearnside, "A Prescription Change and Ow Common Futuie. Papeis hom a for Slowing Deforestation in Amazonia," En- Fonim (Washington, D.C.. National Academv vironment, May 1989. Press, 1989). 52. Reid,"SustainableDevelopment", 58. For discussion of the shortcomings of Charles M. Peters et al., "Valuation of an traditional accounting measures, see Robert Amazonian Rainforest," Nc'ure, June 29, Repetto. Wasting Assets Natuial Resources in the 1989. National Income Accounts (Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute, 1989); Herman 53. Poste) and Heise, Reforesting the Eai th. E. Daly and John B. Cobb, Jr., For the Common 54. Lester R. Brown et al. "Outlining a Good Redirecting the Economy towaid Commumtv, Global Action Plan," m Brown et al., State of the Environment, and a Sustainable Future (Bos- the World 1989. ton: Beacon Press, in press). 59. Herman E. Daly, "Sustainable Devel- 55. Postel, "Halting Land Degradation." opment: From Concept and Theory Tovv ards 56. William C. Thiesenhusen, ed., Search- Operational Principles," Population and Devel- ingforAgranan Reform in Latin Amenca (Bos- opment Review, Spring 1990 (in press); Daly ton: Unwin Hyman, 1989); for some interest- and Cobb, For the Common Good. ing examples of village land management, 60. World military expenditures frGm U.S. see Anil Agarwal and Sunita Narain, "The Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Greening of India," Illustrated Weekly of India, World Militaiy Expenditures and Arms Transfers June 10, 1989. 1988 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 57. Peter M. Vitousek et al., "Human Ap- 1989); abolition of Costa propriation of the Products of Photosynthe- Rican army from Muni Figueres dc Jimenez, acceptance speech, Better World Society sis," BioSclence, June 1986; Paul R. Ehrlich et al., "Global Change and Carrying Capacity: Peace Advocacy and Arms Reduction Medal, Implications for Life on Earth," in Ruth S. New York, November 28, 1988. DeFries and Thomas F Malone, eds.. Global 61. Daly and Cobb, Foi the Common Good. Index

Abrahamson, Dean, 22 armaments, see military acid deposition Army Corps of Engineers. U.S., 8,) crop damage from, 51-58. 109 Asc:. health threats from, 98, 100, 101, 106, 115 bicycks use in. 120 historical monuments damaged by, 109-10 cropland converted to nonfarm uses m, 65 Afghanistan, 44 increase in hungary and malnourished people Africa, 61, 77 in, 59 external debt of, 4, 12 in.gauon loans to, 41 fallow periods shortened in, 60 mongro .. fringed coastline remaining. 86 food consumption trends in, 4, 10. 59 sohnization of cropland. 44 Irrigation trends in, 42, 47. 56 severely degraded land in. 60 mangrove-fringed coastline, 36 se, also individual countries m reduction of grain prodaction per person in, Asian Development Bank 4. 10. 59 irrigation project loans by, 41 overgrazing results in, 6 restoration of Himalayan watershed by. 57 poorly planned hrigation projects in, 47 Atomic Energy Authority (U.K ), 24 see also individual countries in Aubrey. David. 95 Agarwal. Anil, 150 Australia Agency for International Development. U.S. degradation in, 8 (AID) environmental issues debated in, 4 air pollution help C.om, 118 Greens electoral success in, 14 irrigation project loans by, 41 long-term environmental plan announced by, agriculture 15 biotechnology's contribution to, 68, 72 reforestation program in. 31. 86 climate change's effects on, 51-58, 60-65. 109 automobiles degradation classification for cropland used in. air pollution from, 102, 103, 113-14 60 converting to cyclmg from, 131-34 irrigation's use in, 39-43 loss of biologically productive land to need to transform production into accommodate demands of increa.ed fleet water-thrifty. high-yielding crops, 57-58 of, 7 water ranching's effects on. 50-51 efficiency standards for. 29 see also cropland; crops; irrigation; yields ratio of cycles to. 121 air pollution, see pollution, air Allied Chemical Corp., GFG phase-out by. 16 Bangkok, Thadand. 82 American Lung Association, 102 Bangladesh Antarctica, 3, 81. 83 flooding in, 61 Applied Energy Services, 30 sea level rise damage in. 86. 87 aquifers, see groundwatei sea level rise vulnerability of, 89-91 Aral Sea (Soviet Union), 46-47, 74 small-scale irrigation systems in, 56 Arctic Sea, 73 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee Arizona. water ranching in. 50 (BRAG), 151

I-, -i i 71 (244) Index Basel Treaty (1989), on transport of hazardous transboundary acid ram talks with the United waste, 14 States by, 13 Bengal, Bay of, 86-87 carbon bicycles, 119-34 "avoidance" costs, 26. 27 advantages over automobiles of, 120-25 global emissions of, 4-5. 18-22 bias against, 126-27 scrubbing, 22-23, 110 differences in countries using, 128-31 carbon dioxide (CO2), trends in atmospheric biological systems levels of, 3, 4.5, 17, 18. 20, 21 global economy supported by, 5-7 carbon emissions see also cropland; forest; rangeland equity issues in cutting back, 21-22 biologically productive land, loss to nonfarm from deforestation, 18, 20, 22, 50-32, 36, 37 uses of, 7 from fossil fuel combustion, 3-5, 18, 20-22. biomass, as renewable source of energy, 25-26 27 biotechnology, future contributioi. tofood goals balancing practicality and equity for productivity using, 68-72 reduction of worldwide, 35-37 Bird, Eric, 86, 93 reduction targets based on per capita levels Boggess, William, 52 of, 35-36 Borlaug. Norman, 69 trends in global, 18-22 Brazil carbon tax, on fossil fuels, 27-28, 37 biomass alcohol fuel use in26 CARE, agroforestry project backed by, 30 carbon emissions from, 20 carrying capacity, of rangeland, 6-7 climate change plans in,34 Central Arnuica, geothermal energy capacity in, deforestation in, 36 25 infant mortality trend in, 4 CETHA (Bolivia), 149 new cropland in, 65 CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) sea level rise effecton, 85 Montreal Protocol's goal concerning, 13, 14 solar thermal powr project scheduled for, strategies to eliminate emissions and use of, 25 17, 18, 32-33 withdrawal of forest clearing incentives in, 15 Vermont's ban on most uses of, 15-16 breeding, techniues used to evaluate Chernobyl (Soviet Union), 23 biotechnologically altered plants, 70 China, People's Republic of Broadus. James, 91 agricultural gains in, 72-73 Bureau of Land Management, U.S. (BLM), air pollution caused crop damage in, 62 grazingsurvey by, 7 climate change plans in, 34 Bureau ofReclamation, U S , water pricing by, conversion to a more peaceful economy by, 54 163-64 Bush, George, methanol fuel support by, 27 cropland converted to nonfarm uses in, 65 cycling encouragement and use in, 128 California fertilizer use trends in, 68 alr pollution control's side effects in, 27 grain yields in, 63, 76 cost of cleaning up irrigation drainage and irrigation-caused groundwater drawdown in, toxified croplands in, 45 46 groundwater erawdowns from irrigated crop irrigation trends in, 39, 41, 42, 46, 55 land, 45 mortality rates of young trees in, 31-32 sea level rise effects on, 82 salinization of cropland in, 44 solar thermal power use in, 25 sea level rise effects on, 91 wind power use in, 24 water competition in, 48-19, 50 Canada cities carbon emiss.on reduction strategy developed sea level risecaused damage to coastal, 83, 87 by, 27 tree planting in, 31-32 climate change plans in, 34 water use conflicts in fanning areas and, 48, deforestation in, 31 50 Soviet agriculture compared to agriculture in, Clean Air Act (1970), proposed amendments to, 24 114

il i., r.., /:, , 1 Index (245) climate change, see global warming grain harvests affected by, 59-65 coal, see fossil fuels poverty-driven, 144-48 Cobb, John, 190 Delaware River Basin Commission, 87 Colombia, 20 demographics, see fannly planning; population Conable, Barber, 38 Denmark, 24, 129, 130 Congress, U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. (USDA), 62, 70 global warming bills before, 34 desertification "gross sustainable productivity" calculauon in Third World countries, 61 law enacted by, 9 see also degradation, environmental; individual Conservation Reserve Program (U.F, 31 countries Consultative Group on International Agricultural developing countries Research (CGIAR), 70, 71, 72 air pollution treni,s in, 20, 22, 98, 100, 103, conversion, economic, 154-72 10,*, 107, 116-18 how to build a coalition for U.S., 160-62 biotechnology equity questions concerning, initial obstacles to, 155-57 71, 72 political obstacles to, 157-60 carbon reduction strategies for, 36-37 Costa Rica, 146 deforestation halt as principal contnbution to Me d'Ivoire, 36, 143 climate stabilization by, 31 Council on Environmental Quality, 47 engaged in the CFC elimination/substitution Crocker, Thomas, 104 process, 33 .ropland fertilizer use trends in, 68 categories of degradation for, 60 funding energy efficiency and reforestation in, forest conversion of marginal, 31 37-38 proportion of global harvest fiom irrigated, grain yields in, 76 40-41 herbicide use in, 71 trends in use and productivity of, 5, 7, 65 irrigation trends in, 41-43 crops pedal-power use in, 120, 125-28 environmental degradation's effects on poverty trap at work in, 141-44 harvests of, 3-4, 10-11 redirecting Wilding to support improved trends in use of hybrid, 66-68 efficiency for, 29 see also agriculture; cropland; grain; harvests solar cell use in, 25 Dominican Republic, 41 Daly, Herman, 190 Dregne, Harold, 60 dams, opposition to new, 47-48 drinking water, see fres't Nat.-r; groundwater Davis, California, 30 drought debt, external crop harvests reduction by, 4 neglect of environment caused by payments effect on emaciated livestock ot, 6 of, 37 effects on grain stocks of future, 12 negotiating policy reform for deep cuts m Dumas, Lloyd, 155, 160 Third World, 152 du Pont de Nemours Company, E.I , 16 as part of poverty trap, 143-44 population growth, environmental Eastern Europe degradation, and Third World, 4, 12, 77-78 air pollution trends in, 62, 114, 116-17, 118 Defense Economic Adjustment Council, 170-72 energy efficiency in, 19-20 deforestation see also individual countries in carbon emissions from, 18, 20, 22, 30-32, 36, 37 economics food productivity effects of, 61-62 of air pollution's health and rtoductivity loss, incentives encouraging, 30 104 policies to slow, 29-32 of bicycle assembly plant and repair shop Thailand's ban on, 15 start-up, 127-28 degradation, environmental of biotechnology research, 70 cumulative effects on crop productivity caused of building new infrastructure to satisfy by, 3-4, 10-11, 74-75 climate change's irrigation differences in, 53 from irngation use and practices, 43-48 "carbon avoidance," 26, 27

r'l ? 41 .9 (246) Index economics (continued) issues in cutting carbon emissions, 21-22 of carbon tax on fossil fuels, 28 of irrigated water use, 43 of converting to a peaceful economy. 157, 161 water use, 39 emrronmental consequences of twentieth erosion, soil century progress in, 3, 10-11 cumulative effects of, 3, 10 flaw in Indicators of, 7-9 reduction in United States of, 16 of Guatemala's agroforestry program, 30 Europe of Increased grain prices, 10-12 bicycle use and planning in, 120, 121-22, of irrigation use in agriculture, 41-43 129 of moving away from fossil fuel dependence, climate change agenda in, 34 22-23, 24, 25-26, 27 forest area Increase in, 31 of promoting cycling use, 130, 131 forest damage in, 6 of reclaiming toxified land and cleanup of wind power capacity in, 25 agricultural drainage, 16, 45 see also Eastern Europe: Western Europe; of saving the Aral Sea, 47 Individual countries in of sea level nse, 80, 84. 86, 87-88, 91-95 European Economic Community, 114, 116, 144 of Soviet agriculture, 74-75 European Parliament of U.S. appliance efficiency standards, 29 climate change proposals and, 34 of water rights' transfer, 50 election results of, 14 World Bank's reforestation, 31 see also funding Falkemnark, Mahn, 48 efficiency family planning, need for, to balance air pollution control through energy. 115 food/population equation, 77-78 climate change impact of Increased energy, Farris, Robert, 124 18-20. 23 Feldman, Jonathan, 155 of crop irrigation, 39-40, 55-58 fertilizer of energy use currently, 4-5, 18-22. 23. 25, 27-29 cropland's diminishing response to use of of energy use m a sustainable society. 179-81 chemical, 59 of irrigation projects, 42-43, 55 subsidies, 68-73 water, in a greenhouse world, 51 trends in use of, 66-68 of water use currently, 54-55 Fletcher, Ellen, 131 Egypt floods. causes and effects of, 61, 86-87 irrigation dependence in, 39, 41 fodder, shortage of. and demand for grain. 6-7 salinization of cropland in, 44 food sea ley el rise effects on, 79, 89-91 competition between humans and animals for, water shortages in, 48 7, 12 El Salvador, 4 convergence of historical trends making Employment Research Associates (Michigan), difficult expanded output of, 11 156 shortages as consequence of environmental energy, climate change and efficient use of. degradation, 10-12 18-22, 23. 25, 27-29, 115 Food and Agriculture Orgamzation, U.N. (FAO) Environmental Defense Fund (Washington. irrigation trend figures by, 41 D.C.), 56, 106 land use survey by, 5 Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. (EPA) soil erosion study by, 60 air pollution study by, 62 forests atmospheric CO2 stabilization estimate 1.),, 20 carbon-fixing potential fi om yarious types of, environmental impact statements order ed by. 30 47-18 sea level rise-caused loss of mangrove, 85-86 sea level nse estimates by, 80, 82. 85 strategies toward sustainable use of, 29-32 equity trends in use and productivity of, 5. 6-7, biotechnological questions concerning, 71, 72 106-7 Issues in climate change policies, 35-38, 80, Forest Inventory Analysis, 6 95, 97 Forest Service, U.S.. 6

6 (i Index (247) fossil fuels strategies to slow. 27-38 Ad-names to, 22-26 water supply and use during, 51-54 methane and nitrous oxide emrssions fi our, 22 Golant7, E lc, 83 transitron support awas from using, 27-29 Gorbachev, Mikhail. 164 trends pi use of. 4-5, 18, 20-22 Gordon, Stuanne, 155, 160 France,1 :, 37 grain fresh water carryover reserves of, 10 11-12, 59 regional shortages of, 48 irrigated areas of, 46 sea level rise effect on supplies of, 87 prices causing shortages and food riots, toxified by air pollution emissions, 105-6 10-12, 77 fuwood, see deforestation: forests prices keyed to world markets, 73 funding see also agriculture; crops: harsests o adapt to new climate reganes. 53 Gramdun Act (India). 150 biotechnological research, 70 Grameen (Villa:e) Bank (Bangladesh). 56, 150 investments in energy efficiency and grasslands. see rangeland reforestation in developing countries. 29. grassroots organizations 37-38 conversion initiatives by western. 165-70 irrigation projects, 41, 43 environmental interest shown by, 12-13, 16 levels for mffitary and environmental threats, fighting poserty and environmental decline. 16 149 grarng. grassland degradation caused by Galeano. Eduardo, 140 unchecked, 6-7 Gambia, The. 89-91 greenhouse effect, see global warming Gandhi, Mahatma. 149 Greenland, 81. 83 Gandhi. Rajiv, 60 6reen Revolution, 67, 72, 77 genetic engineering. see biotechnology Greens, electoral gains by, 14 Germany. Federal Republic of gross national product (C') rkvelopment and carbon tax suggested in, 28 shortcomings of, 7-8 groundwater climate change planning by. 34 Egypt's dependence on, 39 Greens issues adopted by mainstream party in. 14 irrigation-caused drawdown of, 45-46 subsidence caused by excessive withdrawals of, Hague declaration participation in, 37 82 military industry employment in, 156 see also fresh water wind power use in, 24 Group Farm Forestry Program (India). 150 Ghana, 4 Group of Seven, 1989 annual summit meeting, Grese, Graham, 95 14 Gleick, Peter, 52 Guatemala 30 global cooperation environmental issues requiring, 13-15, 16, Hague Declaration (1989). on global warming. 33-38, 77-78, 95-97. 115-18 13. 21, 37 to stabilize dir ate change. 34-38. 97 harvests Global ReLeaf, 31 environmental degradation's effects on, 59-65 global warming. 17-38 trends in world grain. 3. 4. 10-12 addition71 benefits of halting. 38 see also crops, grain atmospheric constituents and. 17 Hawke. Robert, 60 diversion of resources away &oh, the poor hazardous waste, see waste, hazardous caused by, 148 health impact of, in the western United States. 51-52 air pollution's threat to. 99-104 irrigation in the face of. 54-58 risks from nuckar power use. 23, 24 natural cycle of, 81. 82 Heks:ra, C.F., 80, 92 poverty alleviation and, 152-53 Helsinki Declaration (1989), CFC phase-out progres, made toward stabilizing uorld. 4-5 agreements reached during, 32-33 sea level rise caused by, 79 herbicides, see agriculture: fertilizer (248) Index

Ilofmann, Paul, 169 international r oopelation.seeglobal cooperation Hotchkiss, David, 145 International Environmental Bureau Houston, Texas, 31 (Switzerland). 118 Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (Ness International Fund for Agricultural Hampshire), 165 Development. 56 hsdrological qcle. global warming's effect on. International Geograpliical Union, 86 51, 61 International Monetary Fund, 144, 152 International Panel on Climate Change, 35 incentives Inter Fares (Canada). 126 deforestation, 15. 30 Iraq. 44 enelp eflicienc! 19-20, 28-29. 31. 114-15 Irrigation to increase bicycle use. 131-34 causes of year-to-year fluctuations in land waste reduction, 114 under, 46 ree alsosubsidies climate change and loss of potential, 52-5'3 India competition for water for, 48-51 bicycle industry development in. 128 efficiency of global, 42-43 breaking poverty spiral in, 151-52 environmental costs of usmg. 43-48 cropland converted to nonfarm uses in. 65 global warming and changes in, 51-54 fertilizei use trends in. 68 small-scale, 40, 55-58 flooding in. 61 trends m use of, 39-43, 65-66 fodder relief camps in, 6 see alsoagriculture: crops gram yields in. 67, 76 irrigation associations, 55 irrigation-caused groundwater drawdown Israel 46 irrigation dependence in. 41, 57 II-ligation dependence and use in, 39. 41, 55 wastewater used foi irrigation in, 57 irrigation equity questions in. 43 water shortages in, 48 opposition to water diversion projects in, 47 water use efficiency in, 54 overgrazing results in. 6. 60 Italy, 41 revenues from propose,: carbon tax in, 28 solar photovo:imc cells used in, 25 Japan water use changes caesed by global warming CR: emissions by, 32 in. 53 climate change plans in, 34 wind power wit and capacit!, in. 24. 25 cropland converted to nonfarm uses in, 65 Indonesia cycling encouragement and I skIn, 128-29 GNP recalculation for. 8 environmental issues debated in. 4 high-yiele ng crops success in, 67 environmental issues effect on election, in, 15 Irrigation aendence in, 41 forest area increase in. 31 sea level rise vulnerability of, 89-91 gram yields in, 76 industrial countries Hague declaration participation in, 37 air pollution trer as in. 98. 99-103. 104. 106. irrigation dependence in, 41 114-16 responsibility for reducing carbon emissions bicycle use in, 120-21. 128-31 of. 22 carbon emission reduction stiattgies and goals fapanese Oserscas Economic Cooperation Fund, for, 35-36 41 conversion to a peaceful economy by. 163-70 Jodha, N.S , 147 energy efficiency in, 19-20, 22 Jordan, 48 forest productivity in. 6 fossil fuel use trends in, 5 Kansas, 45 see alsoindividual countries Keller, Andrew, 52 infant mortality rates, m developing countries, 4, Kenya, 22 11 Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge. 44 Institute for Transportation and Development Koch, Edward, 133 Policy (um. 127 Komanoff, Charles. 125 Intermediate Technology Transport, 127 Kovda, Victer. 61

by Index ( 249 ) Kumar, Shubh, 145 military Kum, Madeleine, 16 global budget for armaments by, 155 ratio of enviromnental expenditures to land,see cropland; forests; rangeland expenditures in the U.S 16 Latin America see alsoconversion, economic food consumption trends in. 4, 10 Milliman, John. 89, 90. 91 increase in hungry and malnourished people Mississippi, 82 in, 59 Mitterand, Francois, 14 land ownership patterns in, 141 inodelmg severely degraded land in, 60 climate change water use, 52, 53 seeindividual countries in global warming computer, 17, 21. 63o4 League of American Wheelmen, 133 sea level rise scenarios and strategies, 82-83, least-cost planning. by utilities, 29 94-95 legislazion Monsanto, toxic emissions cutback by, 114 air p Alution control, 99, 104-5, 114-15, 118 Montreal Protocol (1987), 13. H. 16, 32-33 coat,tal protection, 94 mortality cycling encouraged through, 129 rates of trees during crash plantmg economic conversion. 170-72 campaigns. 31-32 long-term consumer efficiency investment trends in developing countries, infant, 4, II encouragement, 29 Mozambique, 89-91 see alsoindividual statutes Murty, T.S., 86-.87 Leonard. Jeffrey, 146 livestock Narain, Sunita, 150 biotechnology used in production of, 69 National Commission for Economic Conversion growth and rangeland degradation, 6-7 and Disarmament (Washington), 155 Los Angeles, California, 31 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), Louisiana, 82. 84, 85 environmental impact statements required low-energy precision application (LEPA), water under, 48 dehvery systems, 55 National Land Use and Wastelands Developnwnt Luz International, 25 Council (India), 6 Lynette, Robert, 24 natural capital depreciation, in futureeconomic accounting systems, 8-9 Madagascar, 4 Natural Enykonment Research Council Maldives (London). 85 clim"te change plans in, 34 natural gas, see fossil fuels sea level rise vulnerability of, 89-91 Natural Resomces Defense Council (NRDC), Malta, 34 102 Mar lush, Yuri, 74 Navarro, Ricardo, 128 McGurn, James, 134 Nebraska. 45 media, enviromnental interest shown by, 12 Nepal, 145-46 Mediterranean Sea, 87-88 Netherlands Menem, Carlos, 133 climate change plans in. 34 Mexico cychng encouragement and usein. 119, air pollution problems in, 103 129-30 cropland conversion to nonfari:-t:s in. 65 Hague declaration panicipation in, 37 infant mortality trend m, 4 twig-term environmental plan announced by. sa;mization of cropland in, 44 15 success of high-yield crops ui, 67 Nevada, 25 Mickhn, Philip, 46-47 NC% Zealand. 25 Middle East Nigeria, 47, 61 irrigation loans to, 41 Nile River water scarcity in, 48 dependence on water nom, 48 wind power capacity in. 25 as impoitant freshwater souice, 39 see alsoin(lividual countries in land subsidence inii eas Sw rounding. 81

171 ." At, r)Li (250) Index nongovernmental organizations, see grassroots changes to sloss climate change, 18, 21-22 organizations dean air, 114-18 North Africa, ste Africa; individual countries in coastal development, 95-97 North America general lack of implementing environmentally clear cutting of virgin forests in, 31 sound, 4-5, 12-16 severe land degradation in, 60, 61 irrigation use and farm, 46 see also individual countries in noverty reinforcement, 140-44 North Korea, 41 World Bank reforestation, 31 Norway, 15, 34 politics nuclear power, 19, 23-24 environmental issues and mainstream, 4, 12-16 oceans ste also policy natural changes in shape and size of, 80-82 pollution, air photosynthetic activity in, 5 controlling, 98-118 oil, see fossil fuels crops damaged by, 3-4, 10, 62-63 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and eco'agical costs of, 104-10 Development (OECD), 102 population Osemeobo, Gbdebo Jonathan, 61 at nsk from sea level rise, 83 Owen, Wilfred, 126 global progress on stopping growth of, 4, 5, ozone 57-58, 77 depletion of stratospheric, 3 global warming and increasing, 21, 22, 36 effects on crop yields of excessive, 62-63 growth and demand for water, 40, 43 health threat from ground-level, 101-3 growth and grain output, 4, / 0-12, 59, 76 see also CFCs need to adjust growth to natural limits, 57-58 water conflicts between farmc and areas of Pakistan incteasing, 48-49 irrigated crops yield studies by, 43 see also family planning irrigation dependence in, 41 poverty, 135-53 salinization of cropland in, 44 environmental degradation exacerbated by, sea level rise vuhierability of, 89-91 144-48 subsidized water in, 54 increase of people in, 136-40 Palo Alto, California, 130-31 reversing the downward spiral into, 149-53 Pans economic summit (1989), 21, 34 trap at the global level, 140-44 pastureland, see rangeland Pravda, 60 Pendakur, V. Setty, 126 prior appropriation, doctrine governing western Peru, 4, 41 Peterson, Dean, 52 U.S. water allocation, 50-51 private sector, biotechnology research funding petroleum, see fossil fuels Philippines by, 70, 71 geothermal energy capacity of, 25 productivity population growth and carbon emissions in, decline in global, 5-7, 60-65 22 environmental degradation's effects on, 60-61, water use study in, 55 62, 63-64, 65 Philippines National Irrigation Agency, 55 fertilizer use and crop, 66-68 Phoenix, Arizona, 50 of food production in the nineties, 75-77 photosynthesis, envuonmetual degradation's public opinion effect on terrestrial 5-7 on chmate change in Europe, 34 Pilkey, Orrin, 92 rising environmental concern in polls on, 16 l'oland, 4, 14-15 public trust doctrine, potential to effect existing policy water tights using, 51 addressing energy and environmental issues Purchcr, John, 128, 131 together, 27-28 agenda for slowing global warming, 33-38 Rads-to-TI ails Consen (U S ), 133 bias toward fossil fuel reliance, 27 ram, and, see acid deposition Index (251) rangeland South Korea, 20. 41, 55. 65 forest conversion of margmal, 31 Soviet Union trends in use and productivity of, 5-7 agricultural trends in. 72-75 reforestation, 86 air pollution trends in, 114, 116-17, 118 carbon bank creation through, '30 clear-cutting virgin forests in, 31 watershed, 57 climate change plans in, 34 World Bank's conclusions on the economics of cons ersion to a more peaceful econonis bs, pursuing, 31 164-65 renewable energy decline in tree growth rates in, 6 as cornerstone of a sustamable society, 175-79 energy efficiency in, 19-20 use to offset carbon emissions, 19, 23, 24-26 environmental issues recognition in. 4, 14-13 Repetto, Robert, 8 fertilizer use in, 68, 73, 74 Replogle, Michael, 127 geothermal energ) capacity of, 25 research Irrigation trend in, 39, 42-43 bias toward fossi: fuel use, '27 land degradation in, 60, 74-75 on effects of climate change, 60 proposal for global environmental reform, funding biotechnological, 70, 71 13-14 funding sea level change, 96-97 reduced grain harvest in, 63 on global warming's impact on regional water salmization of cropland in, 44 supplies, 51-52 water use efficiency in, 54-55 on new, more tolerant crop strains, 57 wind power capacity in, 25 renewable energy and energy efficiency, 28 standards solar photovoltaic, 25 air pollution, 100, 102, 104,114, 115, 116 Rhoades, Jame-, 44 drinking water salinity, 44 Ridley, Nicholas, 24 energy efficiency, 29 Robin, Gordon de Q, 82 U.S apphance efficiency, 29 runoff Stockton, Charles, 52 as primary measure of a region's renewable strategies water supply, 51 for air pollution reduction, 110-14 impact of changes in patterns of in western for coping with sea level rise, 91-95 United States. 51-52 see also policy toxic Cienucals in, 44-45 subsidence sea level rise and, 81-82. 90-91 salinization, see degradation, environmental, see also saltwater intrusion u-rigation subsidies Salt Lake City, 50 for dear-cutting virgin forests, 31 saltwate: intrusion, 46, 80 fertilizer, 68, 73 Santosa, Paulus, 149 necessary to make biomass-based akohol fuel Saxton, John, 131 competitive, '26 Schaake. John, 52 Third World water use, 54 Schindler, David, 106 see also incentives Scudder, Thayei. 47 Surinam, 89-91 sea level rise, 79-97 sustamabihty areas and populations at risk, 83-88, 88-91 of direct conversion of solar energs, 175-79 local effects of global. 80-83 of earth's biological base, 184-87 natural, 81, 82. 83 of grasslands in developing countries, 6 planning ahead to cope with, 95-97 of individual priorities and values for futm e Senegal, 56, 89-91 society, 187-90 Skoulikidis, T.N., 109 of irrigation projects, 45-48 Smit-Kroes, Nellie, 130 of pedal-powered transpolt, 127-28 soil strategies for the next decade to grow annual losses of (global), 61 adequate amounts of crolm, 54-58 see als, agriculture; erosion, soil Sweden Solar Energy Research Institute, U S. (SERI), 25 CPC phase-out bs, 16

,:. (252) Index

Sweden (maim ut.d) proposal for global environmental reform, 13 climate change plans in, 34 sea leel rise effects in, 85 Greens electoral success in, 14 United Nations Swedish Corrosion Institute, acid ram cost calculating sustamability into accounting estimate by, 110 system by, 9 Syria, 44, 48 General Assembly, 12 global environmer, poll commissioned by, tailenders, 43 16 Taiwan, 65 international population growth campaign led tax by (proposed), 78 auto use, 130, 131 management of revenues from carbon tax by, on carbon emissions, 27-28 37-38 end gy, 34 Security Council, 13 technology see also additional specific programs and developments to help wean world from fossil organizations fuel dependence, 22-23, 24, 25-26, 110 United States efficient small-scale irrigation, 55-58 air pollution-caused crop damage in, 62 grain harvest Increase using modern, 3 biomass alcohol fuel use in, 26 for increased water use efficiency, 54-58 carbon emissions from fossil fuel use in, 5 pollution control, 110, 117, 118 CFC emissions and production by, 32 renewables and energy efficient, 28 "clean coal" research program in, 27 Technology Transport, Ltd (U.K.), 126 cropland use and trends in, 65 Teramura, Alan, 63 cycling incentives in areas of, 130-34 Texas, 45-46, 54-55, 82 deforestation in, 31 Thailand, 15, 79, 89-91 fertilizer use trends in, 68 Thatcner, Margaret, 13, 157 forest damag- in, 6 Third World, see developing countries geothermal energy capacity of, 25 Three Mile Island, 23 grain yidds in, 76 To lba, Mostafa, 14 groundwater drawdwns from irrigated toxic chemicals, agricultural runoff laced with, cropland, 45 44-45 importance of grain exports by, 11-12 toxic wastes, see wastes, hazardous irrigation use in, 39 transportation, see automobiles, biLycles local governments taking on environmental trends, relationships between environmental and issues in, 15-16 economic, 3-4, 11-12 military and environmental expenditures by, Tucson, Arizona, 50 16 Turkey, 44 military-related employment n., 155-56 overgrazing on rangeland us, 7 U.N. Development Programme, 38 ozone levels in, 62 U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, 115-16 pricing reforms for water needed in, 54 U.N Environment Programme (UNEP) reduced grain harvest in, 63 air pollution data from, 100103 responsibility for reducing carbon emissions authority to carry out provisions of global of, 21-22 warming agreement, 36-37 revenues from proposed carbon tax, 28 chmate change talks under auspices of, 35-37 salinization of cropland in, 44 global sea level rise study by, 88-91 sea level rise effects on, 79, 82, 83, 84-85, 87 international support for strengthening of, 14, soil erosion control in, 16 36-37 success of high-yielding crops in, 67 sea level rise estimates by, 80 topsoil losses in, 61 United Kingdoni transboundary acid rain talks with Canada by, carbon tax proposal in, '28 13 climate change plans in, 34 water shortages in portions of western, 50-51 Greens' electoral success in, 14 wetlands loss in, 84-85 fl II) Index (253) wind power capacity m, 24-25 air pollution control activitie by, 117, 118 see alsospecific agencies chmate consideration when a viewing loans Uruguay, 4 by, 38 utilities, least cost pbnning by, 29 cycling promotion by, 127, 132 irrigatmn project loans by, 41 Vermont, environmental regulation in, 15-16 large-scale irrigauon projects fundeo by, 57 Vitousek, Peter M., 7 pohcy paper on global warming, 31 voluntary agencies,seegrassroots organizations research on effects of degradation on gram output by, 60 waste restoration of Himalayan watershed by, 57 hazardous, exposure of poor people to, structural adjustment reform promotion by, 147-48 144, 152 reduction and recycling in a sustainable trade barriers cost to developing countries society, 181-84 estimate by, 144 wastewater, irrigation of crops using treated, 57 water diversion loan to India, 47 water World Commission on Environment and harvesting, 55-56 Development, 15 user associations, 55 World Conference on Environment and seealso fresh water; groundwater Development, 13-14 waterlogging,seedegradation, environmental, World Environment Center (New York), 118 irrigation World Health Organization (WHO), 100, 103 Weiss, Ted, 170 World Meteorological Organization, 35 Western Europe World Resources Institute (WRI) (Washington), air pollutioncaused crop damage in, 62 8, 30 energy efficiency in, 20 World Wildlife FundConservation Foundation environmentalists' gains in legi.latures of (Washington), 146 countries in, 4 grain yields in, 76 Xerox, cycling amenities at, 130 see alsoindividual countries in West Germany,seeGermany, Federal Republic yield of gap between irrigation cropland sites, 43 wetlands, climate changecaused damage to, increasing grain, 75-77 84-85 watershed management increasing crop, women, loan programs for, 149-50 56 woodlands,seeforests see alsoproductivity Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Yohe, Gary, 94 (Massachusetts), 89-91 Yunus, Mohammad, 150 World B.,nk African future scenarios study by, 4 Zambia, 4 As the world enters the last decade of the century, the environmental problemsfacing human society have moved to center stage. This, the Worldwatch Institute's seventh annual assessmentof the earth's health, comes at a time when many vital life support systems are beingundermined. While awareness of the issues has soared in recent years, no country has yet embarked onthe ambitious turnaround strategies needed to make today's societies sustainable. State of the World 1990 focuses on major policy initiatives needed to stabilize theclimate, improve air quality, and reduce poverty. A wholesale reordering of governmentpriorities is suggested, including the conversion of military industries into enterprises that promote a sustainable society. In keeping with the mood entering a new decade, the 1990 editionis more forward-looking than ever. In the last chapter, the authors describe the outlines of a sustainable society. It is notenough, they believe, to implement policies piecemeal, so they have provided a vision toguide policy reforms. A society that meets its needs without consuming the resource base of future generations would be efficient in all senses, powered by renewable energy sources rather thanfossil fuels, relying on less damaging agricultural practices, and using recycled materials for many purposes. Other chapters of State of the World 1990 focus on the problem of rising seas, the precarious food situation now facing the world, emerging water scarcities and their threat toagriculture, and the role of the bicycle in transportation systems. State of the World is now translated into all major languages, includingArabic, Chinese, French, German, Indonesian, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish, and sells over 100,000copies annually in English alone. In the absence of any official annual assessment by theUnited Nations, this book is now given semi-official status by many national governments andinternational agencies. It is also used in over 1,000 U.S. college and university courses ranging fromgeography to political science. As The New York Review of Books recently pointed out,State of the World "deals with calamitous events rationally and constructively, and always offers logicalsolutions?"

State of the Worldhas been selected to accompanyRace to Save the Planet,a thirteen-unit telecourse and ten-part public television series premiering in the fall of 1990.

Race, 7ave the Planetwas produced by WGBH-TV/Boston.

Mapr Funding from The Annenberg/CPB Project

ISBN 0-393-30614-3 W W-NOR I ON 5 0 9 9 5

11 \\ k 9 780393306149

FPT $9.95 USA

SI2.95 CAN. Cover design by Mike McIver