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Latin Numbered Pages Post Deyr 05.Pmd 3.3 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND EXPORT Livestock Production and Migration Overall water and pasture condition throughout Somalia is Map 6: Deyr 2004/05 Livestock Migration Trend normal to above normal due to the widespread and good Deyr rains. In the drought affected north and central Alula DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden Kandala Zeylac Las Qoray Bosaso regions, water availability and pasture is also normal to Lughaye Baki Berbera Iskushuban Borama El Afwein Erigavo above normal in most of the areas. Above normal Deyr Gabiley Sheikh Gardo Hargeisa Odweine Caynaba Taleh Bandar Beila rains filled berkeds and natural water points and have Xudun Burco Buhodle Lasanod Garowe stimulated pasture growth. Exceptions are pockets in east Eyl Burtinle of Qardho in Bari and pockets in Taleh district (see Table Jariban Goldogob Galkayo 5). Livestock migration is normal, as most livestock have IA IOP Adado H Abudwaq Hobyo returned to their normal grazing areas in response to good ET Dusa Mareb n a e rainfall (see Map 6). In the South, the livestock originating El Bur Haradhere c El Barde O Belet Weyne n ia Rab Dhuure d Dolo Hudur El Der In from Kenya have returned to Kenya following good rains Luuq Wajid Tieglo Bulo Burti Belet Hawa Aden Yabal Baidoa Jalalaqsi received there. Places where livestock migration is not Garbahare Jowhar Adale El Waq Qansah Dere Wanle Weyne Balad normal are those areas affected by civil insecurity, which Bur Hakaba Afgoye Bardera Dinsor Qoryoley Mogadishu Sakow Kurtun Warrey Marka include Rab Dhurre and Wajid in the south and Galgadud Sablale Buale Brava KENYA in the central region. Afmadow Jilib Jamame LEGEND: Kismayo Livestock Migration Trend FSAU Livestock body condition is improving in most pastoral Badhadhe areas of Somalia, including the northern drought affected regions, because of the normal to above normal Deyr rains (see Table 5). Calving and kidding in the drought affected northern region is expected in the next 2-3 months for goats and about 11 months for camels. In the northeast, recovery of herds will be slow and arduous because herds were decimated by multiple shocks over the past three years (i.e. drought, freezing rains and floods). Interviews with focus groups consisting of local elders and pastoralists indicate that satisfactory herd recovery can only be realized in the next 3-4 years for small stock and 15-20 years for camels. A positive herd growth depends on an extremely good performance of the successive Gu and Deyr rains. Another huge shock will again devastate pastoral livestock A typical livestock market in Northern Somalia holdings. Table 5: Post Deyr 2004/05 Water and Pasture Condition, Livestock Body Conditions and Migration Summary Trends in Milk Water and Pasture Body Calving/ kidding Region Migration livestock production & Condition Condition trends holdings prices Apart from pockets in livestock production and export livestock production Kidding expected in 2-3 east of Qardho, Immigration in Below normal Bari Improving Increasing months; calving in 11 elsewhere normal to most areas in most places months above normal Kidding exxpected in 2- Normal migration Below normal Mudug Normal Improving Increasing 3 months; calving in 11 patterns in most places months Immigration from Kidding expected in 2-3 Normal to above Below normal Nugal Improving Jariban and Increasing months; calving in 11 normal in most places Qardho Districts months Improving Kidding expected in 2-3 Migration Below normal Sanaag Improving northwards in most Increasing months; calving in 11 northwards in most places places months Immigration from Sool Plateau of Kidding expected in 2-3 Normal except pockets Below normal Sool Improving Sanaag to Upper Increasing months; calving in 11 in Taleh District in most places Nugal & Sool months Plateau of Sool Normal availability of Migration to Kidding expected in 2-3 Below normal Togdheer water; below normal Normal Buhodle & Somali Increasing months; calving in 11 in most places pasture condition Region of Ethiopia months FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 313 Issued February 28, 2005 Overview of Livestock Exports The exportation of live animals (sheep, goats, cattle, and camels) Figure 7: Livestock Exports from Berbera and dominates the economy in the north and small stock (sheep and Bossaso Ports (1994-2004) 4,000 goats) continue to constitute the bulk of the animals exported, Camel 3,500 Cattle i.e. 90% of the total number of live animals exported in 2004 (see Shoats Average Figure 7. Livestock exports originate from areas throughout 3,000 Somalia and the Somali region in Ethiopia, but are exported from 2,500 two major northern ports – Berbera and Bossaso. In 2004, small 2,000 stock exported from the ports of Berbera and Bossaso totaled 1,500 Volume in Thousands. in Volume 2,025,884 animals, which is close to the total exports of 2003 1,000 (2,046,516), but still significantly less, by almost one million head, 500 than the number exported prior to the first and current livestock 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ban (1998 and 2000) (see Table 6 and 7 and Figure 8). Year Figure 8: Shoats Exports from Berbera and There has been a significant shift in small stock export shares Bossaso Ports (1994-2004) between Bosasso and Berbera Port since the first livestock ban 4,000 of 1997 (see Figure 8). Prior to the livestock ban of 1997, most 3,500 Berbera small stock were exported through Berbera Port (85%), however, Bosasso 3,000 Average a reversal has occurred since this time and Bossaso now exports the bulk of small stock, doubling its pre-ban levels. In 2004, 2,500 more than one million small stock were exported through Bossaso 2,000 1,500 (1,166,480). Most of the live cattle and camel exports continue Thousands. in Volume to be exported through Berbera Port (131,852 and 6,156 head in 1,000 2004 respectively) and small stock exports from this port increased 500 over last year (859, 404 in 2004 and 563,107 in 2003). 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Another trend is a seasonal shift in livestock exports which is associated with the changing times of the Hajj. This year the Hajj (Pilgrimage) season was celebrated on January 20, 2005 in Saudi Arabia. Livestock exports in Somalia generally respond strongly to the Hajj season. The date of Hajj comes early by about 11 days every year because its occurrence is based on the lunar calendar. For example, next year’s Hajj will be around January 9, 2006. The shift in the day of Hajj affects the monthly livestock export for the months prior to Hajj, e.g. November, December, and January in this case. The December exports of small stock from Berbera and Bossaso have been increasing steadily since 2001 because of the forward shift of the date of Hajj. For example, December small stock exports increased by six percent between 2001 and 2002; 36 percent between 2002 and 2003; and 39 percent between 2003 and 2004. Table 6: Livestock Exports from Bossaso Table 7: Livestock Exports from Berbera Jan-Dec 2004 Jan-Dec 2004 Livestock Exports from Bossaso Livestock Exports from Berbera Jan - Dec 2004 Jan-Dec 2004 Month Shoats Cattle Camels Month Shoats Cattle Camels January 189,167 7,944 99 January 177,376 14,792 0 February 118,994 5,041 52 February 35,573 9,435 1,018 March 74,257 11,842 175 March 25,207 10,782 1,250 April 98,780 4,766 478 April 35,176 10,995 0 May 106,040 6,439 66 May 42,030 7,461 625 June 79,150 9,670 466 June 39,800 8,390 726 July 126,295 5,904 479 July 59,041 11,950 0 August 59,060 4,050 120 August 55,874 9,829 0 September 75,805 7,945 85 September 53,499 9,946 1,528 October 72,660 7,418 100 October 73,023 10,386 0 November 70,455 3,325 60 November 92,677 13,065 1,009 December 95,817 5,750 308 December 170,128 14,821 0 Total 1,166,480 80,094 2,488 Total 859,404 131,852 6,156 FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 14 Issued February 28, 2005 Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade (TOT) Export quality goat prices in Hargeisa, Galkayo, Bosasso and Burao, were at an all time high in real terms (expressed in US$), during the peak of this export season, ranging between 26$ - 34$ per head in December 2004 (see Figure 8). Export livestock prices follow a normal seasonal trend with prices high at the peak of the export season (average 25$ per head in January 2004) and falling to lower levels thereafter ($22 per head in March 2004). By the peak time of this export season (December 2004), export quality prices were already 22- 26% higher than the same time last peak season, for Hargeisa, Galkayo and Bossaso (29$, 30$ and 34$ per head, respectively), and 43% higher in Burao (26$ per head in December 2004 compared to 18$ per head in December 2003). Export quality goat prices collapsed in Somalia following the livestock ban in 2000, but have steadily recovered over the past four years. This peak export season, export quality goat prices surpassed even the 1998 pre-livestock ban prices (see Figure 9). Export quality goat prices are closely linked to the overall depreciation of Somalia and Somaliland exchange rates, as the depreciation of the Somali currencies had the affect of making exports cheaper. Overtime, however, it is argued that export prices have increased to balance and offset the depreciation of the currencies.
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