3.3 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND EXPORT Livestock Production and Migration

Overall water and pasture condition throughout is Map 6: Deyr 2004/05 Livestock Migration Trend normal to above normal due to the widespread and good Deyr rains. In the drought affected north and central Alula DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden Kandala Zeylac Las Qoray Bosaso regions, water availability and pasture is also normal to Lughaye Baki Berbera Iskushuban Borama El Afwein Erigavo above normal in most of the areas. Above normal Deyr Gabiley Sheikh Gardo Hargeisa Odweine Caynaba Taleh Bandar Beila rains filled berkeds and natural water points and have Xudun Burco Buhodle Lasanod Garowe stimulated pasture growth. Exceptions are pockets in east Eyl Burtinle

of Qardho in Bari and pockets in Taleh district (see Table Jariban Goldogob Galkayo 5). Livestock migration is normal, as most livestock have IA IOP Adado H Abudwaq Hobyo returned to their normal grazing areas in response to good ET Dusa Mareb n a e rainfall (see Map 6). In the South, the livestock originating El Bur Haradhere c El Barde O Belet Weyne n ia Rab Dhuure d Dolo Hudur El Der In from Kenya have returned to Kenya following good rains Luuq Wajid Tieglo Bulo Burti Belet Hawa Aden Yabal Baidoa Jalalaqsi received there. Places where livestock migration is not Garbahare Jowhar Adale El Waq Qansah Dere Wanle Weyne Balad normal are those areas affected by civil insecurity, which Bur Hakaba Afgoye Bardera Dinsor Qoryoley Mogadishu Sakow Kurtun Warrey Marka include Rab Dhurre and Wajid in the south and Galgadud Sablale Buale Brava KENYA in the central region. Jilib

Jamame LEGEND: Livestock Migration Trend FSAU Livestock body condition is improving in most pastoral Badhadhe areas of Somalia, including the northern drought affected regions, because of the normal to above normal Deyr rains (see Table 5). Calving and kidding in the drought affected northern region is expected in the next 2-3 months for goats and about 11 months for camels. In the northeast, recovery of herds will be slow and arduous because herds were decimated by multiple shocks over the past three years (i.e. drought, freezing rains and floods). Interviews with focus groups consisting of local elders and pastoralists indicate that satisfactory herd recovery can only be realized in the next 3-4 years for small stock and 15-20 years for camels. A positive herd growth depends on an extremely good performance of the successive Gu and Deyr rains. Another huge shock will again devastate pastoral livestock A typical livestock market in Northern Somalia holdings. Table 5: Post Deyr 2004/05 Water and Pasture Condition, Livestock Body Conditions and Migration Summary Trends in Milk Water and Pasture Body Calving/ kidding Region Migration livestock production & Condition Condition trends holdings prices Apart from pockets in livestock production and export and production livestock Kidding expected in 2-3 east of Qardho, Immigration in Below normal Bari Improving Increasing months; calving in 11 elsewhere normal to most areas in most places months above normal Kidding exxpected in 2- Normal migration Below normal Mudug Normal Improving Increasing 3 months; calving in 11 patterns in most places months Immigration from Kidding expected in 2-3 Normal to above Below normal Nugal Improving Jariban and Increasing months; calving in 11 normal in most places Qardho Districts months Improving Kidding expected in 2-3 Migration Below normal Sanaag Improving northwards in most Increasing months; calving in 11 northwards in most places places months

Immigration from Sool Plateau of Kidding expected in 2-3 Normal except pockets Below normal Sool Improving Sanaag to Upper Increasing months; calving in 11 in Taleh District in most places Nugal & Sool months Plateau of Sool

Normal availability of Migration to Kidding expected in 2-3 Below normal Togdheer water; below normal Normal Buhodle & Somali Increasing months; calving in 11 in most places pasture condition Region of Ethiopia months

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 313 Issued February 28, 2005 Overview of Livestock Exports

The exportation of live animals (sheep, goats, cattle, and camels) Figure 7: Livestock Exports from Berbera and dominates the economy in the north and small stock (sheep and Bossaso Ports (1994-2004) 4,000 goats) continue to constitute the bulk of the animals exported, Camel 3,500 Cattle i.e. 90% of the total number of live animals exported in 2004 (see Shoats Average Figure 7. Livestock exports originate from areas throughout 3,000 Somalia and the Somali region in Ethiopia, but are exported from 2,500 two major northern ports – Berbera and Bossaso. In 2004, small 2,000 stock exported from the ports of Berbera and Bossaso totaled 1,500 Volume in Thousands. in Volume

2,025,884 animals, which is close to the total exports of 2003 1,000

(2,046,516), but still significantly less, by almost one million head, 500 than the number exported prior to the first and current livestock 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ban (1998 and 2000) (see Table 6 and 7 and Figure 8). Year Figure 8: Shoats Exports from Berbera and There has been a significant shift in small stock export shares Bossaso Ports (1994-2004) between Bosasso and Berbera Port since the first livestock ban 4,000 of 1997 (see Figure 8). Prior to the livestock ban of 1997, most 3,500 Berbera small stock were exported through Berbera Port (85%), however, Bosasso 3,000 Average a reversal has occurred since this time and Bossaso now exports the bulk of small stock, doubling its pre-ban levels. In 2004, 2,500 more than one million small stock were exported through Bossaso 2,000

1,500

(1,166,480). Most of the live cattle and camel exports continue Thousands. in Volume to be exported through Berbera Port (131,852 and 6,156 head in 1,000

2004 respectively) and small stock exports from this port increased 500 over last year (859, 404 in 2004 and 563,107 in 2003). 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Another trend is a seasonal shift in livestock exports which is associated with the changing times of the Hajj. This year the Hajj (Pilgrimage) season was celebrated on January 20, 2005 in Saudi Arabia. Livestock exports in Somalia generally respond strongly to the Hajj season. The date of Hajj comes early by about 11 days every year because its occurrence is based on the lunar calendar. For example, next year’s Hajj will be around January 9, 2006. The shift in the day of Hajj affects the monthly livestock export for the months prior to Hajj, e.g. November, December, and January in this case. The December exports of small stock from Berbera and Bossaso have been increasing steadily since 2001 because of the forward shift of the date of Hajj. For example, December small stock exports increased by six percent between 2001 and 2002; 36 percent between 2002 and 2003; and 39 percent between 2003 and 2004.

Table 6: Livestock Exports from Bossaso Table 7: Livestock Exports from Berbera Jan-Dec 2004 Jan-Dec 2004 Livestock Exports from Bossaso Livestock Exports from Berbera Jan - Dec 2004 Jan-Dec 2004 Month Shoats Cattle Camels Month Shoats Cattle Camels January 189,167 7,944 99 January 177,376 14,792 0 February 118,994 5,041 52 February 35,573 9,435 1,018 March 74,257 11,842 175 March 25,207 10,782 1,250 April 98,780 4,766 478 April 35,176 10,995 0 May 106,040 6,439 66 May 42,030 7,461 625 June 79,150 9,670 466 June 39,800 8,390 726 July 126,295 5,904 479 July 59,041 11,950 0 August 59,060 4,050 120 August 55,874 9,829 0 September 75,805 7,945 85 September 53,499 9,946 1,528 October 72,660 7,418 100 October 73,023 10,386 0 November 70,455 3,325 60 November 92,677 13,065 1,009 December 95,817 5,750 308 December 170,128 14,821 0 Total 1,166,480 80,094 2,488 Total 859,404 131,852 6,156

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 14 Issued February 28, 2005 Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade (TOT)

Export quality goat prices in Hargeisa, Galkayo, Bosasso and Burao, were at an all time high in real terms (expressed in US$), during the peak of this export season, ranging between 26$ - 34$ per head in December 2004 (see Figure 8). Export livestock prices follow a normal seasonal trend with prices high at the peak of the export season (average 25$ per head in January 2004) and falling to lower levels thereafter ($22 per head in March 2004). By the peak time of this export season (December 2004), export quality prices were already 22- 26% higher than the same time last peak season, for Hargeisa, Galkayo and Bossaso (29$, 30$ and 34$ per head, respectively), and 43% higher in Burao (26$ per head in December 2004 compared to 18$ per head in December 2003).

Export quality goat prices collapsed in Somalia following the livestock ban in 2000, but have steadily recovered over the past four years. This peak export season, export quality goat prices surpassed even the 1998 pre-livestock ban prices (see Figure 9). Export quality goat prices are closely linked to the overall depreciation of Somalia and Somaliland exchange rates, as the depreciation of the Somali currencies had the affect of making exports cheaper. Overtime, however, it is argued that export prices have increased to balance and offset the depreciation of the currencies.

Terms of trade (TOT) between rice and export quality goats, has also recovered since the livestock ban was imposed in 2000 and has generally reached levels higher than 1998 pre-livestock ban period (see Figure 9). This means that pastoralists are acquiring an increasing amount of rice per head of goat. At the peak of this livestock export season TOT in the northern livestock export markets ranged between 65-94 kg per head of export quality goat, while in 1998 the range during the peak period was only 50 -56kg per head of export quality of goat (see Figure 9). This signals that pastoralists are benefiting more in the trade of livestock than before. The TOT is a clearer indicator of how pastoralists are benefiting from trade, as it removes the currency affect.

Figure 9: Terms of Trade Imported Rice to Export Figure 10: Average Prices in the North Region - Quality Goat (1998-2004) Export Quality Goat (1998-2004)

140.00 40.00

Bossaso 120.00 Bossaso 35.00

t Burao Burao Galkayo Galkayo 30.00 Hargesia 100.00 Hargeisa 25.00 80.00 20.00 60.00 15.00 40.00 10.00 Kgsof Rice per 1 Head Export Goa 20.00 5.00 Price of 1 Head Export Quality Goat in USD in Goat Quality Export Head 1 of Price 0.00 0.00 9 9 9 00 8 8 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 l-98 l- n-01 l-02 l-03 l-04 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 u u an- a u u u l- - l- - - l- - - l- Jan-98 J Jan-9 J J Jul-00 J Jul-01 Jan-02 J Jan-03 J Jan-04 J n ul n ul n Jan- Ju Jan-9 Jul-99 Ja Ju Jan-0 J Ja Ju Jan-0 J Ja Ju livestock production and export Month/Year Month/Year

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 3 15 Issued February 28, 2005 3.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS

During the Deyr 2004/05 season, the overall currency situation was stable, as both the Somali and Somaliland Shilling value remained fairly constant against the US Dollar between October and December 2004 in most of the main regional markets (see Figure 11). The Somalia Shilling is generally aligned in most markets, especially Deyr Galkayo, Bosasso and Baidoa, ranging between 15,000 SOSH and 16,500 SOSH per US dollar during the 2004/05 season. The Somaliland Shilling was between 6,000-6500 SLSH per US dollar for this same period. Between April and September 2004, however, both currencies experienced the largest gain in value against the US Dollar since their collapse following the livestock ban in mid-2000 (see Figures10). The Somalia Shilling gained in value by an average of 33% (32%. in Mogadishu, 35% in Baidoa, 34% in

Figure 11 : Exchange Rate- SoSh and SlSh to USD (1998-2004)

30,000.00 9,000.00 Baidoa Bossaso 8,000.00 25,000.00 Galkayo 7,000.00 Mogadishu Hargeisa 20,000.00 6,000.00

5,000.00 15,000.00 4,000.00 SLSH per Dollar per SLSH SOSH per per Dollar SOSH 10,000.00 3,000.00

2,000.00 5,000.00

1,000.00 market analysis and trends

0.00 0.00

8 02 4 -9 -00 l-00 l- l-0 u u u Jan Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan J Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 J Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 J Month/Year Truck off-loading mlk at a market

Figure 12: Exchange Rate and Percent Change in Mogadishu Market in Somali Shilling Galkayo, and 29% in Bossaso), while the (SoSh) (2000 - 2004) Somaliland Shilling gained in value by 29% 25,000 50% (from 7,580 SLSH in April to 5,863 SLSH in SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Depreciation since Jan 2000 September in Hargeisa market) (see Figure

20,000 11). 0%

15,000 Despite recent gains in both currencies this

-50% year, they both are still significantly lower

10,000 in value as compared to the pre-livestock Price in US Dollars

Percent Change of SOSH of Change Percent ban levels. For example, (see Figure 12) the -100% 5,000 Somali Shilling is still significantly devalued at 49% of January 2000 level, i.e. from an

0 -150% average of 10,000 SOSH per dollar in Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Month January 2000 to an average of 15,138 SOSH per dollar in December 2004. The Somaliland Figure 13: Exchange Rate and Percent Change in Shilling, even though having a different Haregeisa Market in Somaliland Shilling rate, is also 54% of its value in January 2000, (SlSh) (2000 - 2004) i.e. for the same period lost value from an 10,000 50% SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR average of 2,753 SLSH to the dollar to 5,988 Depreciation since Jan 2001 SLSH to the dollar (see Figure13). 8,000 0%

6,000 -50% The recent appreciation in both currencies is partly attributed to the moderate 4,000 -100% recovery in livestock exports from Bossaso Price in US Dollars

Percent Change of SLSH of Change Percent and Berbera Ports (see trends in livestock 2,000 -150% exports, figure 6). In the case of Bosasso

0 -200% Port, exports are more than double pre- Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 livestock ban levels (i.e. 1.2 million goats Month exported in 2004). Livestock exports are a major source of foreign exchange earnings, hence stimulates the cost of imported commodities, including fuel (and therefore transport and pump irrigation costs), sugar, rice and other goods. During this Deyr season when the shillings started to appreciate, some imported food prices dropped slightly in many urban markets. In addition, there is speculation that the recent appreciation is related to the newly established Federal authorities, as well as a low demand for the seasonal trading for the imported commodities.

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 16 Issued February 28, 2005 3.5 NUTRITION OVERVIEW

Nutrition Situation Overview Map 7: Nutrition Status Trends (1999-2004) A wide range of nutrition information, obtained Alula through the nutrition surveillance activities across DJIBOUTI Gulf of Ade n Kandala Zeylac La s Q o ra y Bos aso Somalia, show a diversity of trends in population Lughaye Aw d a l Bak i Berbera Bor ama Sa na g El Af w ein Iskushuban W. G alb eed Sheikh Erigabo vulnerability for different areas of the country. These Gabiley Bari

Gardo Hargeisa Caynaba distinct trends in typical levels of malnutrition, Odwei ne Bender Beila Xudun Taleh Bur co Soo l generated from 1999 to 2004 nutrition data, are Togdheer LAS ANOD Buhodle Lasanod Garowe Ey l Nugal presented in Map 7. The current nutrition situation, Bur tinl e

Goldogob which is based on current nutrition information Jariban Galkayo available in the country, is compared against the IA Mu dug P IO Adado Abudwaq ‘usual’ range of malnutrition (see Map 7) to identify H Hobyo T E n a areas where malnutrition rates are above the range Du s a M a r eb e c Galgadud O n El Bar de El Bur Haradhere ia of malnutrition usually found in those areas (see d Bakol Belet Wey ne n I Hudur Rab-Dhuure Do l o Hiran Map 8). Luuq El De r Bulo Bur ti Wajid Tieglo Belet Hawa Aden Yabal Baidoa Jalalaqsi

Garbahare Jowhar Adale Gedo Wanle W eyne Nutrition Status Trends (Map 7): Overall, the Qansah Dere Bur ha kab a El Waq M. S ha bel l e Bay Balad

Bur Hakaba Af goye nutrition situation in the southern part of Somalia is Bardera Di ns o r Qoryoley Banadir Mogadishu Sak o w Kurtun Warrey Global (Total) Acute Malnutrition Marka worse than in the Northern part. Most of north- M. J ub a L.Sh ab ell e Districts/Zones Sablale

Buale western Somalia typically has global acute Br ava < 10%* Afmadow Jil ib

KENYA 10% - 14.9%* L. Ju ba malnutrition rates (W/H< -2 z score or oedema) of Ja m a me 15% - 19.9%* less than 10%. Most of northeast Somalia, as well as Kis may o > 20%* part of Sool Plateau and parts of Lower Nugal, have Badhadhe * Weight-for-height <-2 SD compared to the NCHS/WHO international reference median

acute malnutrition rates of between 10% and 14.9%. FSAU This map reflects range estimates, based on Central and southern Somalia population experience nutrition surveys and other monitoring data

malnutrition rates of 15% and above, (Map 7). It is notable that most populations in Somalia have serious to critical nutrition status according to international standards (global acute malnutrition e”10%). Map 8 : Current Overall Nutrition Situation Current Overall Nutrition Situation (Map 8): January 2005 Analysis and interpretation of nutrition situation involves triangulation of data from surveys, rapid assessments, health facility, sentinel sites surveillance, selective feeding programmes, field observation and seasonality trends in dietary issues and disease patterns. Map 8 shows the current overall nutrition situation in Somalia. The populations in Jilib riverine (Juba), Luuq District in nutrition overview Northern Gedo, Dusamareb and Adaado Districts, Dangoroyo area, Bossaso IDPs and Talex and Hudun districts of Lower Nugal, all have malnutrition rates which are significantly above the usual range experienced in the area. The nutrition situation in areas like Bullahawa and Dolow districts in Northern Gedo, Baidoa, Berdaale and Qansax Dheere districts of Bay Region and the neighbouring Wajiid and Rabdure districts of Bakool Region, is slightly above the usual range. The nutrition situation in Hobyo district is also above the usual range category. The other parts of the country are within the FSAU usual range, as indicated in Map 8.

Areas in severe nutrition crisis are apparently experiencing civil insecurity which limits access and hinders interventions. Other factors linked to malnutrition in Somalia include, asset loss, increased food prices and increased expenditure on food purchases, which in turn compromises access to other essential services like health, limited social support, reduced income opportunities, unsustainable coping strategies like bush product collection (self employment), increased debt burden, reduced land under cultivation, poor sanitation, poor water for consumption, inadequate maternal and childcare practices, limited food diversification, communicable diseases and limited access to health services etc.

Insecurity has led to the destruction of food stock in Southern Somalia, interrupted humanitarian operations and has triggered internal displacements. Access to health services has also been limited with the escalation of insecurity, for example in Hobyo district, thus negatively influencing the population wellbeing.

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 3 17 Issued February 28, 2005 4 REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS 4.1 SOUTHERN SOMALIA

4.1a Juba Valley and Gedo Map 9: Juba Valley Livelihood Overview Systems JUBA VALLEY Two areas in this region, North Gedo and the riverine areas of the Juba Valley, are of significant concern due to their continuing and chronic state of humanitarian emergency (see Map 10 and Table 8). In North Gedo, an estimated 53,000 people are in a state of humanitarian emergency and another 59,000 people are facing a livelihood crisis. Since the last FSAU assessment in September 2004, there has been no improvement in the situation in northern Gedo. Civil insecurity, the main underlying cause of the areas vulnerability, continues to disrupt economic activities and undermine people’s livelihoods, food security and nutritional wellbeing.

LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS An estimated 83,000 people in the riverine communities in Lower and RIVERINE Middle Juba, are in a continuing state of humanitarian emergency. More than half the Deyr 2004/05 maize production was destroyed by excessive rains and river floods (46% of Deyr PWA), as well as huge losses in underground food stocks. Recent conflict and civil insecurity worsened the situation by disrupting

economic activities. These current shocks are overlaid on a chronic situation that is characterized by southern somalia socially marginalized communities, chronic seasonal food insecurity, poor caring practices, one of the highest levels of malnutrition in the country and civil tension and conflict.

In other pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in the region, the above normal Deyr2004/05 rains brought improvements in overall food and livelihood security, thus the alert and livelihood crisis categorization of the Gu 2004/05 for these populations in Juba and Gedo have been removed (see Map 10). Deyr 2004/05 rains were good and well distributed, therefore pasture is normal, water catchments are full, livestock have return to their normal grazing areas, and livestock conditions are improving.

The dhsheks (flood plains) are full for the first time in several seasons and are contributing to rainfed crop production, increased fishing opportunities, and increased wild foods availability. Rainfed sorghum production benefited from good rains, especially in Gedo and Middle Juba (311% of Deyr PWA and 124% of Deyr PWA, respectively).

A very good Deyr 2004/05 season sorghum production in the region and the Sorghum Belt region as a whole, will likely improve food access for producers, as well as off-set the maize losses in the region by supplying markets with a cheap cereal alternative. Off-season crops, cereals and sesame, have been planted in the dhsheks and flood recessional areas and if successful will further improve access to food and income. Off-season harvest is expected in early to mid-March 2005. Map 10: Food security phase classifica Table 8: People in need of assistance- Juba and Gedo tion - Juba and Gedo Humanitarian District Livelihood Emergency Total in Need as % DISTRICT Population Crisis (Level 2) of Total Population BELET WEYNE G # CEEL BARDE # Gedo CE Rab Dhuure Bakol DOOLOW # XUDUR Hiran Bardera 76,850 0 0 0 # # TAYEEGLOW # BULO BURTO Belet Xaawo 68,135 21,000 15,000 53 # BELET XAAWO LUUQ # # # WAAJID # ADA Ceel Waaq 52,150 0 0 0 JALALAQSI GARBAHAAREY # # BAYDHABA Dolow 39,050 18,000 16,000 87 # BUUR HAKABA M. S QANSAX DHEERE JOWHAR CEEL WAQ # Garbahaarey 76,075 0 0 0 # # # CADA ## WANLA WEYN # Gedo DIINSOOR BALCAD Luuq 73,120 20,000 22,000 57 # # Bay # # BAARDHEERE AFGOOYE # SUB TOTAL 385,380 59,000 53,000 29 # # MOGADISHU QORYOOLEY SAAKOW # # MARKA # KURTUNWAAREY # # M. Juba SABLAALE Afmadow 100,075 0 0 0 BU'AALE # L. Shabelle #

# BARAAWE Badhadhe 41,695 0 0 0 Xagar # # Jamame 100,625 0 30,000 30 JILIB AFMADOW # # Kismayo 86,845 0 0 0 L. Juba JAMAAME # SUB TOTAL 329,240 0 30,000 9 # Middle Juba KISMAAYO# FSAU # Buale 50,000 0 15,000 30 BADHAADHE Humanitarian Emergency (level 1) # Humanitarian Emegency (level 2) Jilib 114,720 0 24,000 21 Acute Livelihood Crisis # Alert Sakow 83,900 0 14,00015 17 Non-Alert, with chronic vulnerability SUB TOTAL 248,620 0 53,000 21 Chronic conditions (sustained degree of food insecurity for over three years TOTAL 963,240 59,000 136,000 20 Areas with IDPs Note: Population Source are WHO and UNICEF supplement immunisation activities (2002). The numbers presented are estimates.

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 18 Issued February 28, 2005 Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: Pasture in the regions is renewed and water catchments (e.g. berkeds, dhsheks, etc) are full due to well distributed and significantly above normal 2004/05 Deyr rains in most of Juba region and parts of southern Gedo. Rainfall was 200% and greater than the long term average in Juba and 120-160% in southern Gedo (see Climate Sector, Map 3). These good rains have ended the abnormal and stress-related livestock migration that was observed earlier this year. In-migrated Kenyan pastoralists have returned to their normal grazing areas within Kenya in response to good rains there.

Reports indicate that charcoal production is excessive in most of the districts in Kismayo, Jamame, and southern Afmadow. All wealth groups of different livelihood strategies are engaged in the charcoal business. Excessive charcoal production is destroying the natural flora and resulting in environmental degradation throughout the region. Desertification and the encroachment of sand dunes towards productive areas is occurring and poses a serious threat to all livelihoods.

Physical Capital: Infrastructure and road networks in Lower and Middle Juba are poor and deteriorating in general. However, the heavy and intensive Deyr 2004/05 rains, coupled with river floods inflicted more damages to the physical capital in area, destroying houses, feeder roads and communication infrastructures. This will increase the inaccessibility to the region, thus leading to higher costs, unreliable market supplies, and inadequate public services, like health clinics, schools, veterinary care, etc. The area is especially isolated during the raining season, as all roads are cut off with no movement of goods.

In Gedo region, the number of check points has increased considerably, resulting in higher transportation costs. During the Deyr 2004//05 assessment, Belet Hawa remained inaccessible due to warring factions. Likewise, many households migrated into Ethiopia’s Zone V due to insecurity in El-wak and Belet-hawa of Gedo region.

Social Capital: A defining characteristic of the riverine communities in Lower and Middle Juba is ‘social marginalization’, meaning they have limited access to social support networks. These communities are almost solely dependent amongst themselves for sharing and support, as links with the agro-pastoral and pastoral communities in the surrounding areas is negligible. In addition, historically the riverine communities were laborers on the large commercial rice, banana and sugar cane farms, therefore, are in general a much poorer community than the agro-pastoral and pastoral communities. Given that most of the riverine communities had extensive damage to their food stores and lost a significant amount of their cereal crops

due to flooding in Deyr 2004/05 season, this

southern somalia southern immediately translates into fewer options for social Figure 14: Annual Cereal Production in Gedo support as everyone was negatively affected. (1995-2004) 30,000 Gu In Gedo, communities along the northern border 25,000 Deyr PWA areas are plagued with continuous and ongoing civil 20,000 insecurity, which challenges social support 15,000 networks of sharing and support. Remittances are MT more prevalent in urban areas and only occasionally 10,000 do pastoralists and agro-pastoralists receive 5,000

remittances from abroad or locally. 0

6 9 2 9 /97 9 /0 /05 5/ 8/ 9 96 9 99/00 01 02/03 04 Human Capital: In northern Gedo and among 19 19 1997/98 19 19 2000/01 20 20 2003/04 20 the Juba riverine communities, high malnutrition Fig 15: Annual Cereal Production in Lower & levels and disease burden, particularly diarrhea, Middle Juba (1995-2004)

malaria and respiratory infections, limit the 12,000 population’s potential to exploit other livelihood

10,000 assets and strategies. Nutrition levels are high, Maize Sorghum significantly above the normal ranges observed, and PWA 8,000 indicate a humanitarian emergency according to

internationally accepted WHO standards. The 6,000 riverine communities in Jilib district also continue to have malnutrition rates significantly above the 4,000

usual range and are critical (GAM > 20). Excessive 2,000 rains and flooding also increased the prevalence of

0 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 319 Issued February 28, 2005 water borne diseases, thus have limited labor productivity further.

Financial Capital: Inundation and localized river floods destroyed vast cropped areas of the low lying land and dhesheks in Jamame, Jilib, Kismayo, Bu’aale districts of the Juba Valley. As a result Deyr 2004/05 crop production is 35% of PWA. In addition, flooding destroyed many underground food stores (bakaar) and food stocks. Livestock conditions are improving due to abundant pasture and increased availability of water. Calving and kidding which will occur over the next 2-3 months, is expected to be good and livestock products will be readily available.

Effects on Livelihood Strategies In normal times, the main food source of food of the poor riverine and agro-pastoralists is own crop production (50-60%), which is supplemented by food purchases, (i.e. cereal, sugar, oil, fresh milk and skimmed milk (35-45%), with minimal reliance on gifts (0-5%). The two main sources of cash income of the poor riverine are employment/self-employment (60%) and crop sales (35%), while agro-pastoralists cash income portfolio is more diversified, including crop sales (15-50% depending on area and group), Figure 16: Average Prices in Juba Valley- livestock sales (20-30%), and employment/self- Various Commodities (1998 -2004) 3.00 24.00 employment (35-55%). White Maize Camel Milk 2.50 Local Quality Goat 20.00

Food Sources: In Juba, food access among 2.00 16.00 the riverine communities is severely limited following the outcome of the Deyr 2004/05 season 1.50 12.00 (see Agriculture Crop Sector Analysis, page 8). 1.00 8.00

More than half the Deyr 2004/05 maize crop 0.50 4.00 Price of 1kg Maize, or 1 lt Milk in USD in or 1 lt Milk of 1kg Maize, Price southern somalia production, the primary source of food for riverine USD Goat in Local Quality of 1 Head Price 0.00 0.00

communities in Juba, was damaged or destroyed 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 n ul n ul n ul n ul n ul n ul n ul Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J Ja J by rains and river floods. Deyr 2004/05 maize Month/Year production in this areas is estimated at 1,730 MT * Calculated from average prices in Afmadow, and is 46% of Deyr PWA (42% and 48% for Lower Buale, Jamame, Hagar, and Kismayo market and Middle Juba respectively). In addition, it is reported that 50-60% of the underground food Figure 17: Terms of Trade- in Juba Valley- stocks were also destroyed by flooding. Off- Sorghum to Goat and Labour (1995-2004) season crops are planted in the receding flood 350.00 35.00 areas and if successful will help improve access 300.00 30.00 Maize (kg) per Local Goat (head) to own food production in the next month 250.00 Maize (kg) per Labour Wage (daily) 25.00 (estimated at 500 MT or 63% of actual harvested 200.00 20.00 already) (see Table 3). 150.00 15.00

100.00 10.00 Kgs of Maize per 1 Head Local Goat Local 1 Head per of Maize Kgs In Lower Juba, where there is little rainfed 50.00 5.00 Kgs of Maize perDaily Labour Wage

sorghum, Deyr 2004/05 cereal production is only 0.00 0.00

98 99 00 00 01 02 2 03 03 4 ------04 l-0 35% of Deyr PWA. Maize losses were severe in n ul-99 n n ul-01 n ul-0 n Jan-98 Jul Ja J Ja Jul Ja J Ja J Jan Jul Ja Ju Middle Juba, however, rainfed sorghum Month/Year production was high resulting in an overall Deyr * Calculated from average prices in Afmadow, 2004/05 cereal production level that is 124% of Buale, Jamame, Hagar, and Kismayo market Deyr PWA (see Table 3, page 9). This season’s cereal production in Gedo, especially in the southern parts, did well as it is primarily rainfed sorghum and is 311% of Deyr PWA. The good 2004/05 sorghum production has helped boost total cereal production of the region, countering the almost complete Gu 2004 crop failure, which was only 17% of PWA (see Post 2004 Gu Analysis, FSAU Technical Report). Annual cereal production (Gu 2004 and Deyr 2004/05) for the three regions (Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo) is 29,000 MT or 76% of PWA.

For the riverine poor, their other main source of food, purchases, is compromised by rising maize prices. In Juba Valley, maize prices have begun to increase and are likely to continue to increase as a result of the maize crop failure throughout southern Somalia (see Figure 16). Maize prices, have continually decline in the region since the Gu 2004 harvest (from 5,000 SOSH/kg in July to 2,600 SOSH/kg in November 2004), but they began to increase in December due to the poor maize crop prospects (3,000 SOSH)/ kg). Rising maize prices is reflected in the falling terms of trade (TOT) between maize and labor (see Figure 17). Since sorghum production is exceptionally good throughout southern Somalia; marketed sorghum should provide a cheaper alternative to maize in the coming months.

In Middle Juba and Gedo, agro-pastoralists food access is improved due to the exceptionally good Deyr 2004/05 sorghum production. Agro-pastoralists will also benefit from improved livestock products following

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 20 Issued February 28, 2005 improved livestock body conditions. Many of the dshesks are replenished after several seasons of drought, thus offer opportunities for watering, off season crops, fishing and wild foods.

Income Source: The good Deyr 2004/05 rains mean improved seasonal labour opportunities for the poor in off-season planting and weeding activities along the riverine and dshesek farms. Laborers can earn 10,000-15,000 SOSH/day per Boosta (200 M2 - area of land). Self employment, i.e. charcoal production, mud plastering, house construction and woman handcraft, is also increased.

Income from animal sales in pastoral and agro-pastoral area is improving, due to improved livestock conditions and increased local demand. Local quality goat and camel milk prices increased sharply from July 2004, but then have declined since December (see Figure 16). Terms of trade, both in terms of the amount of cereals one can obtain from daily wages and from the sale of a local goat, improved from July 2004, but then fell following rising maize prices in December (see Figure 17). Cheap sorghum will provide an alternative to expensive maize, thus is likely to improve terms of trade in the coming months (sorghum to labor or goat).

Deyr season sesame production is an important cash crop in Lower Juba Valley regions. About 14,000- 15,000 Ha of sesame were planted in the Deyr 2004/05 and 2,000-2,500 MT of sesame seed production is expected at harvest in March 2005. An 80% increase in total sesame production has been recorded in the Middle Juba region. There is a high demand for sesame cash crop, both from local and external markets. Sesame is a major source of cash income in the Juba Valley regions.

Expenditures: Expenditures of riverine and agro-pastoral households have increased throughout 2004, due to the general increasing cost of local and export commodities. Between January and December 2004, vegetable oil prices increased by 9%, petrol prices by 45%, imported rice prices by 19% and sugar by 10% (see FSAU Market Update, March 2005).

Nutrition Situation

Throughout most of Juba Valley and Gedo region, nutrition levels are within the usual malnutrition range observed in Southern Somalia, however, this usual range is extremely high and critical according to internationally accepted standards, i.e. GAM 15 -19.9% in Juba and GAM >20% in Gedo (see Nutrition Sector, Map 8). In Jilib riverine communities, malnutrition rates are significantly above the usual range (GAM >20%). Current data from the MSF-H therapeutic feeding centers show an average admission of 4 people per day. This persistent condition is attributed to chronic food insecurity, inadequate access to safe water, poor health services and a poor social care environment for women and children.

In the northern part of Gedo, malnutrition rates are excessively high and significantly above usual range. Luuq district has one of the highest malnutrition rates in the country, with global acute malnutrition rates

southern somalia (W/H<-2 z score or oedema) of 25.4% and severe acute malnutrition rates (W/H<-3 z score or oedema) of 5% recorded in October 2004. Mortality rates are high and alarming, i.e. under five mortality rate is 3.7/10,000/ day and crude mortality rate is 1.5/10,000/day, Additional surveillance information indicate high disease incidences, limited food diversity, cases of malnutrition incidences in health facilities and dependency on relief in the Northern Gedo populations of Luuq, Dolow and Bulla Hawa.

Coping Strategies

Coping strategies reported include, collection of bush products, migration to urban areas in search of employment, collection of wild fruits, fishing for subsistence, land sale (especially in the riverine areas), reducing the number of meals, and consumption of non preferred foods. Many families are also splitting as active members migrate to urban areas for work.

Future Outlook

Given the overall poor performance of Deyr 2004/05 maize crop production, combined with cereal stock losses, poor riverine communities will have difficulty accessing enough food over the next four months. Food access until the next Gu 2005 harvest will be dependent on the outcome of off-season cereal production, the continued availability of fishing and wild food collection in dshsekes, agricultural labor opportunities, and cheap sorghum in the markets. If conflict and insecurity continues or increases this will limit opportunities for employment, lead to higher food prices, and create greater food and livelihood insecurity in the region.

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 321 Issued February 28, 2005 4.1 b Lower and Middle Shabelle Map 11: Shabelle and Cowpea Belt Livelihood Systems Overview SHABELLE & COWPEA BELT In the Shabelle Valley, intense and continuous 2004/05 Deyr rains led to river and rain flooding that resulted in severe maize crop losses for the region. This Deyr season’s maize production is only 45% of Deyr PWA in Lower Shabelle and only 51% of Deyr PWA in Middle Shabelle. Rainfed sorghum production in the region, responded well to the above normal Deyr rains (164% of Deyr PWA) and helped counter maize losses. Despite above normal sorghum production, total cereal production for both Lower and Middle Shabelle is below normal (89% and 62% of PWA respectively). Field reports indicate that flooding also led to high losses in

underground cereal stock, between 40-50% in Lower Shabelle LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS and 70-80% in Middle Shabelle. AGRO-PASTORALISTS RIVERINE URBAN The poor riverine communities of the Shabelle River are identified in a state of alert, due to the severity of maize crop and stock losses and the limited coping options (see Map 11). Their own production will last only 1-2 of months, then they will be reliant on food purchases and labor opportunities Map 12: Food security phase classifica- to earn cash until the next Gu production season. Maize tion - Shabelle prices remain high and are expected to continue to increase.

Sorghum prices are low and are expected to decline, thus somalia southern offering an alternative cheap cereal option. Off season sesame production (Jan.-March) could provide share- cropping options and labor opportunities for the poor. FSAU will closely monitor off-season production, price of cereals, labor opportunities and terms of trade in this region over the next few months.

The severe maize crop losses will have an impact on maize FSAU prices throughout the region in the coming months as Humanitarian Emergency (level 1) Shabelle Valley is the ‘maize’ basket of southern Somali. FSAU Humanitarian Emegency (level 2) Acute Livelihood Crisis Alert Figure 18: Gu & Deyr Cereal Production in Non-Alert, with chronic Lower and Middle Shablle (1995-2004) vulnerability Chronic conditions (sustained 120,000 degree of food insecurity for over three years 100,000 Maize Areas with IDPs Sorghum PWA 80,000 will closely monitor cereal prices in the region and in

60,000 MT the south overall until the next Gu harvest (July 2005).

40,000 In the agro-pastoral and pastoral areas, the good rains 20,000 regenerated pasture and water sources, thus enhancing livestock production and reproduction 0

6 7 8 2 3 /9 /9 /9 /99 /00 /0 /0 /04 /05 across the Shabelle Valley Region. Fodder production 6 7 8 9 3 4 995 99 99 000/01 001 002 00 00 1993/94 1994/95 1 1 1 199 199 2 2 2 2 2 Deyr / Year is also increased, thus offering an important source Figure 19: Gu and Deyr Maize Production & of cash income. Price (1998-2005) 120,000 0.35 Cereal Production

0.30 100,000 Maize Production Maize Price Flooding and excessive rains lead to severe maize 0.25 80,000 crop losses in the region this season. Maize 0.20 60,000 production in Lower Shabelle is only 45% of PWA 0.15 and 51% of PWA in Middle Shabelle (see Figure 19). 40,000 Maize Production (MT) Production Maize 0.10 Rainfed sorghum production benefited from the Prices of 1 Kg of Maize in USD in Maize of 1 Kg of Prices

20,000 above normal rains and is the third highest 0.05 production level in the last 10 years (see Figure 18). 0 0.00

9 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 Sorghum production performed especially well in 0 0 0 l-98 l-99 l-00 l-01 - l-0 - l-0 - l-0 u u u u an u an u an u an-05 Jan-98 J Jan-9 J Jan-0 J Jan-0 J J J J J J J J Lower Shabelle (192% of PWA). Despite the benefits Month/Year

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 22 Issued February 28, 2005 of improved sorghum production, overall Deyr 2004/05 cereal production for both Lower and Middle Shabelle is below the PWA 89% of Deyr PWA and 62% of Deyr PWA respectively. In Lower Shabelle, three high potential maize districts experienced severe cereal crop failures, ranging between 28%-38% of PWA (Qoryoley, Kurtun-Warrey, and Sablale).

The Shabelle Valley is the primary cereal producing area in the country, contributing on average a total of 52% of total annual cereal production in southern Somalia (52% of Gu PWA and 48% of Deyr PWA). This year, due to severe maize losses, its contribution to overall cereal production is only 36% of Deyr PWA. The annual cereal production (Gu 2004 and Deyr 2004/05) of the Shabelle Valley is estimated at 120,230 MT, which is 91% of PWA. Of this total production, Lower Shabelle’s contribution is 82%. The seasonal constraints of cereal production include heavy rains and river floods, weed proliferation, and increased insects (e.g. Aphids affecting maize, and Heliothis spp. and smut diseases affecting Sorghum).

Livelihood Assets and Strategies

Natural Capital: All districts of the Shabelle Valley regions received good rainfall. The rainfall intensity and frequency was much higher than normal Deyr-seasons, and is comparable to the 1997 El Nino Deyr rains, except of less duration. Approximately 45 days of rainfall were received in the three months of the Deyr 2004/5 season. These above normal rains fully replenished pastures, grazing lands and water catchments, which in turn is enhancing livestock production and reproduction across the Shabelle valley regions. The regions natural capital, however, is in a precarious state, as excessive charcoal production for export, overgrazing and resource conflicts has left much of Shabelle Valley’s natural resources degraded.

Physical Capital: The excessive and intensive Deyr 2004/05 rains led to a further deterioration in the already degraded and limited infrastructure of the region. Roads, feeder roads and bridges in both Lower and Middle Shabelle were damaged by river and rain floods. Irrigation infrastructure, including barrages, irrigation network canals, culverts and bridges, were also damaged, thus contributing to further inefficiency in the irrigation infrastructure. Rain and river flooding also contributed to further silting of canals and river beds, which increases risk to future flooding. Financial Capital: In favorable seasons, Figure 20: Terms of Trade in Shabelle Valley - Maize mutual trust based credit forms are available to Local Quality Goat & Labour (1998-2004) throughout the Shabelle Valley regions. These 300.00 35.00 Maize (kg) per Local Goat (head) have emerged to fill the gap created by the Maize (kg) per Labour Wage (daily) 30.00 250.00 absence of legal financial institutions. The

25.00 amount of credit available is linked to crop 200.00

20.00 harvest expectations and actual crop harvests. 150.00 southern somalia In the Deyr 2004/05, everyone in the riverine 15.00

100.00 community was negatively affected in one 10.00 way or another by flooding, either in KgsMaize of 1 per Head Local Goat 50.00 Wage Labour Daily per Maize of Kgs 5.00 underground storage stock losses and/or 0.00 0.00 standing crop losses. This in turn decreased 98 9 01 2 03 4 04 l- -9 l-00 l- -0 l- -0 - u u Jan-98 J Jan Jul-99 Jan-00 Ju Jan-01 J Jan Jul-02 Jan-03 Ju Jan Jul the availability of credit (in-kind and in cash), Month/Year as many utilized their own resources for their * Calculated from average market prices in Afgoye, Jowhar, Merka own increased needs, including off-season and Qoryoley planting and repairs to damaged assets.

Social Capital: Strong social networks exist within the communities, including kinship support and religiously sanctioned alms of Zaaka and Sadaqa. Kinship support was at its minimum during the Deyr season, primarily as a consequence of the flood damage to cereal storage and the destruction of the maize crop in the riverine areas. Zaaka, is also constrained as it is linked to a specific percentage of earnings. Mutual help, however, among poor in preparing the flood recession and for sesame was reported to be very active at the end of December 2004 up to January Good Sorghum performance after Deyr 2004/05 rains 2005.

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 323 Issued February 28, 2005 Human Capital: Excessive Deyr rains and flood waters increased the incidence and vulnerability to malaria and bilharzias across the Shabelle Valley regions. Depleted cereal stock at household level coupled with diseases, and limited access to health services will impair the productivity of active members of household in the Valley making the poor more vulnerable. Ongoing nutritional surveillance indicates that malnutrition rates are within their ‘usual’ range, however, the ‘usual’ range is between 15% - 19.9% GAM, which by international standards is critical.

Effects on Livelihood Strategies There are two primary livelihood strategies in the Shabelle Valley, agro-pastoral (irrigated maize and/or rainfed sorghum and cattle) and riverine agriculturalists (maize, fruits, and vegetables). Both the poor riverine agriculturalists and agro-pastoralists rely primarily on own crop production for most of their food needs (65- 80%), supplementing this with food purchases (10-20%) and animal products (0-15%). The main source of cash income for the poor riverine agriculturalists is cereal and non-cereal crop sales (40-65%), followed by seasonal labor (30-40%). Poor agro-pastoralists, however, earn most of their cash income through employment and self-employment (35-65%), followed by livestock sales (10 -20%). An understanding of these basic livelihood strategies allows one to determine the overall affect of the shocks on their livelihood and food security.

Food Sources: Agro-pastoralists, reliant on sorghum and livestock production for their main food sources, have normal or above normal access to food as they benefit from both increased sorghum production and improved livestock condition in response to good Deyr rains.

For the riverine agriculturalists, especially the poor, food access is severely constrained due to heavy maize crop losses, coupled with losses in underground cereal stocks. Own crop production will only take them through the next two months (April 2004), at which point, they will be reliant on food purchases, labor opportunities (in-kind or cash), and/or social support to meet their food needs. Maize prices began to rise dramatically in the last two months, and are expected to continue to rise in response to the very poor Deyr

maize production. This immediately translates into a deterioration in the terms of trade between maize and southern somalia daily wage rate (see Figure 19 and 20). If cheap sorghum is available in the markets, this could ease their access to food purchases, if opportunities for earning cash income are good.

The bulk production of cereal (sorghum and maize) is expected to enter local markets at the end of January and February 2005. Actual prices of cereal (maize, sorghum) at reference markets- from Qoryoley to Afgoi districts – ranges from SoSh 2,100-2,600/ kg. In response to maize stock losses and very poor Deyr maize, the maize prices are expected to rise and could reach as high as SoSh.4000-5000/ kg up to mid-season Gu 2005.

Increasing and high maize prices, however, are likely be offset by declining and low sorghum prices stimulated by above normal sorghum production in the region and the sorghum-belt zones of Southern Somalia. Producers of sorghum expect a decline from current price SoSh.2300/kg to SoSh.700/kg. Sorghum prices might be around SoSh1000/ kg upto the mid season Gu 2005. Cheap sorghum would help alleviate the food access constraints of the poor agriculturalists, as it will translate into an increased terms of trade for casual labor and self-employment (sorghum and labor wage rates).

Income Sources:There were no labor opportunities available during the estimated 45 days of continuous Deyr rainfall in the Shabelle Valley. Labour opportunities were available only after the end of December (sesame planting, weeding) and will continue upto the end of January. Off season sesame and cereal harvesting (April-March) are expected to generate agricultural labor opportunities.

Deyr season sesame production is an important crop in the Shabelle Valley, not only is it a major source of cash income (from the sale of sesame and sesame oil), but also generates opportunities for casual labor. The cropped area inundated by the Deyr 2004/05 rains and river floods is expected to lead to a reasonable production of sesame. Area under sesame is estimated at 50,000 Ha in the flood recession regions of the Shabelle Valley, and expected production is estimated at 14,860 Mt (14% from Middle Shabelle and 86% Lower Shabelle). This is 96% of last years sesame production. Constraints to sesame production include, low yielding sesame varieties, sesame web-worm, and expensive inputs (e.g. tractor rent, sesame seeds, restricted sesame crop planting).

The poor are benefiting from flood recession cultivation of sesame through share-cropping, which is ongoing. Competition among middle and better-off farm owners has increased the costs of tractor renting thus making it inaccessible and un-affordable for the poor. Weed proliferation in flood recession land has also limited the poor.

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 24 Issued February 28, 2005 Nutrition Situation

Past surveillance data from health facilities in Lower and Middle Shabelle, as well as Banadir regions, indicated that the nutritional situation is critical according to international standards (i.e.15 – 19.9% GAM), but within the usual range for this region. The average monthly attendance in those MCH centre is between 200 and 250 children. The IDP populations in Mogadishu are still vulnerable with a global acute malnutrition rate of 15.8% (C.I 12.8-19.6) being recorded (July 2004). The poor nutrition situation is associated with household food insecurity, poor feeding practices, poor child care practices, poor sanitation and unhygienic environment.

Alternative Food and Income Sources

A number of different copping strategies are possible and are adopted throughout the Shabelle Valley. Fish, wild foods, bananas and mangoes are all seasonally abundant and offer an important food source, as well as income opportunities through their sale. A large off-season crop production means there are increased labour opportunities. Good rains also translate in to good fodder production, which is an important cash income source. Shabelle is also one of the most developed regions in terms of urban centers, therefore, people move to urban centers, including Mogadishu, in search of employment and self-employment.

4.1c Bay, Bakol and Hiran

Overview

The Deyr 2004/05 rains were well distributed, continuous and above Map 13: Sorghum Belt Livelihood normal throughout the region. As a result, Bay, Bakool and Hiran Systems had exceptionally good cereal production that is significantly above Deyr post war levels, i.e. 156%, 195% and 144% of Deyr PWA for Bay, Bakool and Hiran respectively. Sorghum prices have declined SORGHUM BELT and are expected to remain low given the abundance of sorghum in the region. The good Deyr rains also replenished pastures and water sources throughout the region, thus improving livestock productivity, including milk, ghee and meat. In response to improvements in pasture and water, most livestock herders have migrated back from Bay region to their original grazing areas.

The food security and livelihood situation of the region overall is normal and is classified in a non-alert state (see map 13). The exceptions are Rab-dhure district and Wajid district, which are southern somalia southern classified in a state of ‘alert’, primarily due to the ongoing civil LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS insecurity in these areas (see Map 14). Civil clashes in Tieglow, Rab- PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS dhure and El-barde have resulted in a large migration of people RIVERINE between districts and to Zone V of Ethiopia. The civil insecurity has disrupted markets, prevented pastoralists from returning to their normal grazing areas, and nutritional surveillance indicates a high and increasing attendance at the supplementary feeding centers in the area. The situation will be closely monitored over the next few months. Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: The good Deyr 2004/05 rains regenerated pasture and replenished water catchments throughout the region. Many poor household families, however, continue to exploit the natural resources in the region by cutting trees and shrubs for building materials and charcoal production. Building materials from this area are reportedly exported for construction to places as far away as the north east, while charcoal is exported to Gulf countries via illegal coastal trading channels. The continuous deforestation in the region has led to the near extinction of the Harar trees (Terminalia spp.), which is an important source of browse for livestock and crucial for honey production, particularly in Bakool and Hiran regions.

Physical Capital: The region is characterised by poor road networks, degraded transport infrastructure, and large number of road blocks that delay the smooth flow of services and commodities and increase commodity prices. Unlike the case following the Gu 2004, there are no reports of livestock deaths or disease outbreaks. An increase in milk, meat and ghee supply in the region is a clear indication of livestock recovery. Camel milk prices, a good indicator of overall livestock conditions and livestock product market supplies, have dropped in Hiran by 60% due to increased supplies in the market, i.e. from 16,000 SOSH/litre to only 6,000 SOSH/litre. Livestock drugs are readily available in the market, although fake drugs and the misuse of the drugs have taken a toll on livestock health.

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 325 Issued February 28, 2005 Social Capital: Many families who separated during the Map 14: Food security phas classification prolonged drought have begun to re-unite , thus increasing - Bay, Bakol and Hiran

household labour supply for farming and/or livestock D Gal production. Gifts and loans remain the main coping strategies El Barde Bakol Belet Weyne Hudur Hiran available to the poor agro-pastoral and poor riverine Biyoley Bulo Burti Dolo Tieglo communities. Remittances are available primarily for urban areas Luuq Wajid a JalalaqsiAde Baidoa and only occasionally do pastoralists and agro-pastoralists Garbahare JowharM.Adale Sha Wanle Weyne receive remittances from the Diaspora and/or locals. According Qansah Dere Bur Hakaba Balad Bay to different focus groups interviewed, the trend of remittance is Dinsor Afgoye Qoryoley Marka declining in terms of quantities and frequency. Very few poor w Kurtun Warrey ba Sablale riverine and agro-pastoral groups rely on relatives and friends L. Shabelle FSAU Humanitarian Emergency (level 1) for livelihood support. Humanitarian Emegency (level 2) Acute Livelihood Crisis Alert Human Capital: On average, there are more active family Non-Alert, with chronic vulnerability Chronic conditions (sustained degree of members in Hiran region compared to Bay and Bakool, as Bay food insecurity for over three years Areas with IDPs and Bakool have been negatively impacted with the prolonged droughts and on-going civil insecurity. The nutrition situation in most parts of the region are within the usual range regularly recorded, however, the range is extremely high and critical according to international standards, i.e. global acute malnutrition rates of 15- 19.9%. Malnutrition rates are considered above the usual rates in Baidoa, Qansax Dheere and part of Dinsor districts (of Bay Region) and the Wajiid and Rabdure districts (of Bakool Region), mainly due to escalating insecurity that has led to destruction of food stocks, population displacements and interruption of livelihoods.

Financial Capital: Business is booming in all regions particularly in Hiran, following the productive somalia southern Deyr season. Lending by traders and those who are better-offhas also increased, due to the exceptional crop harvest, which is higher than the neighbouring regions. Better pasture has also attracted many pastoralists to migrate into the area.

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

A basic understanding of how the poor access food and income is the basis for analysing the impact of the Deyr 2004/50 season on food access. For this region, the main elements of food access are cereal and livestock production, followed by employment and self-employment. The main source of food for poor agro-pastoralists in this region is own crop production (50-75% of total annual food requirements), followed by food purchases (30-45%). In terms of annual cash income, poor agro-pastoralists have a diversified portfolio, earning most of their income (40-50% for Bay and Bakool and 25-35% in Hiran Riverine) from employment (i.e. agricultural labour, portering, herding and building constructions) and self employment (i.e. sale of bush products including wild meat and honey). An additional 10-20% of cash income comes from the sale of livestock and livestock products and/or agricultural product sales (8-15%). Pastoralists rely on food purchases to meet most of their food needs ( 50-55% ), supplemented with own livestock and livestock products consumption. Income for pastoralists is primarily derived from livestock and livestock product sales (70-80% ).

Food Sources: Exceptionally good Deyr 2004/05 rains have improved overall food access for agriculturalists, agro-pastoralists, and pastoralists throughout the region. Own crop production consumption is significantly improved due to the above normal cereal production, i.e. 154%, 155% and 159% of Deyr PWA for Bay, Bakool and Hiran respectively (see Agricultural Sector and Table 3). This Deyr crop production helped counter the poor Gu 2004 crop production, i.e. Deyr 2004/05 cereal production in Bay is 43,600 MT compared 26,800 MT in Gu 2004 (62% of PWA), is 2,700 MT compared to 450MT (16% of PWA) in Bakool, and is 11,400 MT compared to 4,430 (92% of PWA) in Hiran (see Table 3).

Food access is also improved due to falling sorghum prices which began to decrease in December 2004 ($0.14 per kilogram) in response to good production prospects (see Figure 21). Sorghum prices had increased dramatically in January 2004 ($0.08 per kilogram), following three seasons of low production combined with the poor prospects for the Gu 2004. Sorghum prices peaked in November 2004 at $.17 per kilogram, an increase of 113% from January and their highest level since the bumper harvest of 2000 (see Figure 22). Sorghum prices are expected to continue to decline over the next few months as more sorghum enters the market.Own consumption of livestock and livestock products is improved following the excellent Deyr 2004/ 05 rains, which regenerated pasture and water sources and is leading to improved livestock conditions.

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 26 Issued February 28, 2005 Income Sources: Poor agro-pastoralists and agriculturalists began to benefit from an improvement in the terms of trade between sorghum and daily wage earnings (the amount of cereal one can purchase from a daily wage), since the Deyr 2004/05. The terms of trade between cereal and wage rates, has increased from 8 kg of sorghum per daily wage rate in October 2004, to 10 kg in December 2004. This exchange rate, however, is still lower than it was at the beginning of the year, i.e. 15 kg per daily wage rate (see Figure 23). Similarly, terms of trade for local quality goats to cereal increased from 92kg per local goat in November 2004 to 112 kg per local goat in December 2004, but is this is still only half of what it was in January 2004, i.e. 204 kg sorghum per local goat (see Figure 23). The primary reason for this overall deterioration in the terms of trade, between sorghum and local goat, is the large price in sorghum price between January and July 2004, i.e. $.08 /kg to $.17 /kg, an increase of 113%. Terms of trade will continue to improve, given the prospects for a continued decrease in the price of sorghum following the harvest.

Crop production sales are likely to be greater than normal, due to the very good sorghum production this season, as well an increase in peanut farming, a cash crop which is reportedly on the rise due to high demands from Ethiopia.

Expenditure: In a normal year between 70-80% of the poor agro-pastoral households’ total expenditure is on basic food needs. Local and export commodities have generally decreased since June 2004, thus allowing agro-pastoralists and pastoralists to purchase more for less. For example, the price of sugar decreased from 9,063 SOSH/kg in June 2004 to 8,125 SOSH/kg in December 2004, vegetable oil decreased from 17,700 SOSH/litre to 14,875 SOSH/litre, and petrol from 18,025 SOSH/litre to 12,031 SOSH/litre, for the same time period. These price decreases reduce pressure on already stretched basic expenditure.

Coping Strategies

With the exception of Rab-dhure and Wajid, the positive conditions have revived the pastoral and agro- pastoral baseline coping strategies that have been weakened by the prolonged droughts of the past three seasons. The current coping strategies include the migration to urban centres and other agricultural areas in search of employment. It is reported that the collection and sale of construction materials (sticks and poles), charcoal production, and wild life hunting have declined following the good Deyr 2004/05 season.

Nutrition Situation

The nutrition situation in most parts of Bay and Bakool regions is within the usual range regularly recorded, i.e. global acute malnutrition rates of 15- 19.9%. However in the districts of Baidoa, Qansax Dheere and part of Dinsor (of Bay Region) and the Wajiid and Rabdure districts (of Bakool Region), the malnutrition rates are considered above usual, mainly due to escalating insecurity that has led to the destruction of food stocks, population displacements and interruption of livelihoods. Global acute malnutrition rate (W/H<-2 z score or oedema) of 16.3% and a severe acute malnutrition rate (W/H<-3 z score or oedema) of 2.9% were recorded in Baidoa District (Oct. 2004). Consumption of limited dietary diversity (despite relatively good sorghum southern somalia harvest), regular interruptions of humanitarian interventions, poor sanitation, poor water quality and the usual high disease incidences, continue to suppress the nutrition wellbeing of the Bay and Bakool populations. High attendance and admission in the feeding programmes of DMO (Baidoa), Isdowrto and Rabdure (Bakool Region), also confirm the poor nutrition situation. Milk availability has, however, increased with the

Figure 21: Gu and Deyr Cereal Production in Hiran (1995-2004)

12,000

10,000 Gu Deyr 8,000

6,000 MT

4,000

2,000

Animals are begining to recover after the Deyr 2004/05 rains 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV. 327 Issued February 28, 2005 Figure 22: Production and Average Price - Sorghum improvement of pastures, though the extraction (1998-2004) of butter for sale compromises the quality of 100,000 0.30 milk consumed by some of the agro-pastoral 90,000 households. Sorghum Production 0.25 80,000 Sorghum Price 70,000 0.20 60,000 The nutrition situation remains poor in Hiran

50,000 0.15 Region with admission in Belet Weyne 40,000 supplementary feeding programme (SFP) 0.10 30,000 Sorghum Production (MT) Production Sorghum remaining high (about 240 children per month).

20,000 Prices of 1 Kg of Sorghum in USD 0.05 Children admitted in the SFP are usually from 10,000

0 0.00 the poor households in the Beletweyne. About

9 0 0 1 3 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 l-98 l-99 - l- l- l-02 - l- - l- u an-9 u an u an an 30% of the estimated 250 children screened Jan-98 J J J J Ju Jan-01 Ju Jan-02 J J Ju J Ju Jan-05 Month/Year monthly are malnourished. In addition the disease prevalence remains high. Figure 23: Terms of Trade in Bay, Bakol and Hiran Region Sorghum to Local Quality Goats & Labour (1998-2004) Future Outlook

300.00 35.00

Sorghum (kg) per Local Goat (head) The exceptionally good Deyr 2004/05 have led 30.00 250.00 Sorghum (kg) per Local Goat (head) to an overall improvement in livelihoods, thus 25.00 200.00 the majority of the agriculturalists, agro- 20.00 pastoralists, and pastoralists in the region are 150.00 15.00 confident in reaching the next rainy season 100.00 10.00 without difficultly due to the good crop harvest

50.00

Kgsof Sorghum perHead 1 Local Goat and the pasture and water availability for their

5.00 Wage Labour Daily per Sorghum of Kgs

livestock. It is reported there are a number of southern somalia 0.00 0.00

8 8 8 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 9 -9 -99 0 -0 -0 0 destitute people, however, in the area with n-9 y- n-00 n-0 y- y n-03 n-0 y- a a a ep-00 a a a a J M Sep Jan May-99Sep-99J May-00S Ja M Sep-0Jan-02Ma Sep-02J May-03Sep J M Sep-0 Month/Year limited food security, which are reliant on social support and distress coping strategies. * Calculated from average prices in Baidoa, Belet Weyne, Hudur and Bardera

FSAU Technical Series Report No IV.3 28 Issued February 28, 2005