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INVESTING IN MACEDONIA 2011 The conference is supported by FOREWORD Foreword HE MARIJA EFREMOVA MACEDONIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UK n my capacity as Macedonia’s Macedonia’s development in the twenty representative to the UK, I am years since independence has been solid. Idelighted to join with Developing We have made many political, economic, Markets Associates and our sponsors in cultural and social reforms to create a welcoming you to this Investment Forum. better living environment for our people. I hope that this Forum will provide a useful We have faced significant political and source of information on Macedonia and economic challenges and successfully will make you aware of the wide array dealt with all. Now we look forward to of investment opportunities that the building on that solid foundation in the country has to offer. years to come. In the past, Macedonia was mainly seen as a mysterious country with plenty of history that rarely anyone visited. HE Marija Efremova Fortunately, this situation is rapidly Macedonian Ambassador changing, as more and more travelers to the UK discover in Macedonia a picturesque land of lakes and mountains, able to satisfy summer and winter tourists alike. Tourism is an important contributor to Macedonia’s economic growth. It is, though, not the only one. In today’s Forum, we want also to highlight other facets of Macedonian’s economic growth and in doing so promote awareness and interest among potential investors of opportunities in sectors as diverse as services, manufacturing and agriculture. 2011 | INVESTING IN MACEDONIA 1 INTRODUCTION Introduction BY AtAM SANDHU, CHIEF EXECUTIVE DEVELOPING MARKETS ASSOCIATES n behalf of Developing Markets And since independence Macedonia has Associates and the Embassy of sought to play its part in international Othe Republic of Macedonia, it forums and organisations and now looks is a great pleasure to welcome you all forward to a time when the country takes today to this, the first-ever Macedonia- its place within the European Union and UK Investment Forum, staged here at in NATO. Painters’ Hall, a venue steeped in history and located in the heart of the City Macedonia is a parliamentary democracy, of London. with a responsible executive and judiciary and financial institutions able to build We are honoured to welcome to a strong and healthy macro-economic London a very senior delegation from environment. For investors, Macedonia the Government of Macedonia, led by offers stability and opportunity and His Excellency Prime Minister Nikola since independence it has strived to Gruevski and several prominent cabinet create an open economy, introducing ministers as well as the country’s reforms in its tax system and successfully investment agency all of whom will be combating inflation. Indeed, in 2009 the addressing the conference today. World Bank named Macedonia as the fourth ‘best reformatory state’ out of 178 For some of you this Forum may be countries surveyed – an indication of the your first encounter with the Republic progress of steady economic growth and of Macedonia. If so, I hope that by the international cooperation. end of the day you will have a much better idea of its role as an independent Lastly, allow me to express my sincere Balkan state, its resilient economy and gratitude to HE Marija Efremova, the investment opportunities which now Ambassador of Macedonia to the UK present themselves. and our distinguished sponsors for helping to make today’s event a reality; It is twenty years since the people of and to assure you of my firm belief that Macedonia held the historic referendum the presentations you will see today and which was to pave the way for the the dialogue and discussions that will establishment of Macedonia as an emerge can mark the next chapter in the independent republic and its withdrawal building of ever closer relations between from the then Yugoslav Federation. Macedonia and UK investors. This withdrawal was achieved through peaceful means and in the years since other political and economic tensions which could so easily have destabilised a fledgling nation state have been resolved Atam Sandhu, Chief Executive through dialogue and the rule of law. Developing Markets Associates 2 INVESTING IN MACEDONIA | 2 011 CONTENTS Contents 04 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 14 AGRICULTURE 16 ENERGY AND MINING 18 INFRASTRUCTURE 21 MANUFACTURING 23 TOURISM 25 POLITICAL HISTORY 27 SPONSORS 28 PROGRAMME Publisher: Chris Gerrard Contributors: Gary Ginsberg, Tom Minney, Roger Martin and Moin Siddiqi Art Director: Steven Jones Conference Team: Deanne Lintorn, Rebecca Isaacs, Frazer Lang, Alison Hamilton Conference Directors: Leon Isaacs, Atam Sandhu Correspondence Developing Markets Associates Ltd (DMA), 150 Tooley Street, London, SE1 2TU email: [email protected] | web: www.developingmarkets.com | www.moneymove.org | wwwsendmoneypacific.org DMA acknowledge the assistance of all the individuals and organisations who have contributed to this publication. The views expressed herein are the opinions of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the Embassy of The Republic of Macedonia, the Government of Macedonia or DMA. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form without the written permission of the publisher. Published by Developing Markets Associates Ltd (DMA). Printed by Woodrow Press. Picture credits: Invest Macedonia, iStock. © Developing Markets Associates Ltd 2011 | INVESTING IN MACEDONIA 3 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW The emerging Macedonia primed for growth BY MOIN SIDDIQI, ECONOMIST he Republic of Macedonia, Macedonia is an open economy, highly 08, with total national output swelling located in the heart of southern integrated into international trade, with from MKD272.46bn to MKD412bn T central Europe, has been on a total trade-to-GDP ratio of 93% at the (US$9.84bn), representing 10.2% five- a continuous path of structural and end of 2010. Agriculture and industry had year compound annual growth. However, fiscal reforms in the last decade, geared been the two most important sectors of Macedonia’s robust growth was halted towards integration into the European the economy in the past, but the services by global downturn, which affected Union (EU). After a lengthy period of sector has gained the lead in recent years. commercial activity, although the banking transition and concerted efforts at nation The young country boasts a proven record sector proved resilient thanks to prudent building following the disintegration of the of macroeconomic stability, reflected regulations and limited exposure to global Yugoslav Federation in 1991, Macedonia in single-digit inflation, a stable national capital markets. Nonetheless, real GDP has managed to emerge from a turbulent currency – the Denar (MKD) pegged shrunk by 0.9% in 2009 before recovering period as a stronger and more efficient to the Euro – sustainable public finances to 1.8% in 2010 (see Table 1). economy. Successive governments of and comfortable import coverage of five differing political parties have largely months. Gross official foreign exchange Private transfers remain large as growing pursued sound macro-financial policies, reserves totalled EUR1.86bn (US$2.64bn) ties with the EU increase labour mobility. which have contributed to gradually as of August 8th 2011. Around 370,000 Macedonians are living accelerating economic growth and abroad, which represents roughly 18% helped the country weather the global Real GDP (inflation-adjusted) grew at of the population. According to the market storm of 2009. a healthy 5% a year between 2004- OECD, Macedonia is among the top 30 4 INVESTING IN MACEDONIA | 2 011 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW developing countries with respect to the highest remittances received as a percentage of GDP (11th) and with the highest remittances per capita (14th). Based on the central bank (NBRM) figures, private transfers that include workers remittances, compensation of employees and migrant transfers (cash exchange), account for around 14% of GDP – equivalent to some US$1.3bn. Despite many challenges, Macedonia has made great strides in strengthening its competitiveness for sustained growth, improving its business climate, improving transport and energy infrastructure and strengthening human capital. It has the potential for a diversified economy and for significant investments and exports, including automotive components, healthcare products and pharmaceuticals, agribusiness, and food processing, and metal products. Macedonia holds large deposits of low-quality coal and lead-zinc ores, as well as copper and chromium. THE CONTAGIOUS IMPACT Despite sound macro fundamentals, Macedonia, like its neighbours remains exposed to risks related to mounting concerns about a sovereign debt crisis debt crisis could lower the availability 2011, credit to the private sector grew by in the Eurozone and stuttering growth and increase the costs of foreign capital. 8% year-on-year, whilst deposits rose by in advanced (OECD) economies. The Moreover, tepid growth in the Eurozone more than 9%. Euro Area is its major trading partner, this year and next will reduce export Exports reported a hefty 44% surge in the first five months of 2011, fuelled Macedonia has managed to emerge from by robust demand for base metals and a turbulent period as a stronger and more some product diversification as a result of pre-crisis foreign direct investment. efficient economy Significantly, Macedonian government Eurobond yields have not been notably affected by turmoil
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