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Is Online Increasing Participation in Campaigns TW Is Online Increasing Participation in Campaigns ? Chris Rose [email protected] www.campaignstrategy.org @campaignstrat www.campaignstrategy.org has online increased the amount of campaigning, or is it simply rebottling the same wine in different bottles ? www.campaignstrategy.org 2012 Friends of the Earth, Avaaz and 350 delivered a petition of over a million signatures to 10 Downing Street, the home of the UK Prime Minister. www.campaignstrategy.org Members of the environmental organisation Friends of the Earth outside 10 Downing Street to hand over a petition to the Prime Minister containing a million signatures from people who support their "Save the Whale" campaign. 29 June 1979 1979 FoE 1 million – photo Corbis www.campaignstrategy.org Then and now • 1979 • Now it has about 150 • FoE in England and staff and 100,000 Wales had about a supporters. dozen staff and 10,000 • Avaaz has 16 million supporters. www.campaignstrategy.org 2000 Climate talks COP6 in the Hague 11 million petition www.climatevoice.org At the Sixth Conference of the Parties of the Climate Convention in the Hague in the year 2000, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and WWF between them collected 11 million signatures online, for a petition. www.campaignstrategy.org 2009 Climate talks COP15 in Copenhagen GCCA tcktcktck.org 17 million petition In 2009, before the “make or break” 15th Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen, those groups plus around 300 others, together collected 17 million signatures online, this time in a www.campaignstrategy.orgworld of social media. 2000 and 2009 • 2000 • 2009 • Early days use of • Mature (‘pre’ social internet media) use of internet • 3 groups • 300 groups • 11 million electronic • 17 million electronic signatures signatures So : “is online actually creating more campaign mobilisation or not ?” It’s generally assumed that it is but is it really ? So far I’ve not been able to find anyone who knows www.campaignstrategy.org Of course a lot has changed from the 1970s to the 21st Century www.campaignstrategy.org 1971 en route Amchitka. Greenpeace consisted of one boat and a couple of dozen people At the helm of Phyllis Cormack aka the Greenpeace: Robert Hunter of the Vancouver Sun, and Ben Metcalfe of CBC, both working journalists. It couldn’t happen now. www.campaignstrategy.org 1971 E PACIFIC DURING THE GREENPEACE VOYAGE, WESTERN UNION DELIVERED LONGEST EVER TELEGRAM TO THE US WHITEHOUSE, WASHINGTON DC. IT HAD 177,000 CANADIAN SIGNATURES. IT TOOK FOUR DAYS TO RECEIVE. said to be the longest telegram in the history of the Western Union. Mobilisation pre-internet style. www.campaignstrategy.org The thought behind campaign engagement ‘Politicians, take note. There is a power out there in suburbia, so far harnessed only to charity drives, campaigns and PTAs which, if ever properly brought to bear on the great problems of the day, will have an impact so great the result of it’s being detonated (like the Amchitka A-bomb test) cannot be predicted’. Bob Hunter, 1969 www.campaignstrategy.org Some things haven’t changed Ghandi walked 240 miles to protest British laws in India on the Salt March in the 1920s. And people still physically mobilise today – as in Occupy Wall Street. www.campaignstrategy.org ? Of course the way they communicate has changed. From telegrams and print, to tv, and to online. www.campaignstrategy.org Tweets You may remember the Stop Kony online phenomenon earlier this year – it broke internet records but lasted only a few days. The follow up physical actions never really materialised. But there is one thing I think it can tell us that maybe ties all these things together www.campaignstrategy.org Here’s the Social Flow analysis of the Facebook mobilisation for Stop Kony The first week or two consisted of a lot of mobilisation within tight existing networks – supporters of the group Invisible Children, evangelical church groups and others. People who had established social bonds. Then they got lucky, and millions of mainly young female teenagers, who also knew each other, started Facebooking the video and then tweeting to celebrities, some of whom retweeted. www.campaignstrategy.org My guess 1 Mobilisation of numbers is now easier but part of its impact = nos. x effort HIGH effort LOW www.campaignstrategy.org My guess 2 As societies develop there will be more Inner Directed people – who typically start and support ‘cause’ campaigns. Hans Rosling Hence more campaigning. 80 India and 70 China will, 60 Inner over time, 50 become more Pioneer 40 Outer like Argentina, Prospector the US and 30 Settler Sustenance UK. So more 20 campaigns 10 0 India China Argentina UK US www.campaignstrategy.org Data: Cultural Dynamics pers comm www.cultdyn.co.uk My guess 3 Campaigns need to create social bonds, as well as enlist socially bonded allies. HIGH creating social bonds LOW high effort campaigning actually creates motivational capital in the form of social bonds. If mobilisation mechanisms are not just to become a form of opinion polling, they need to have a bit of them that is difficult. www.campaignstrategy.org .
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