Hoover Institution Newsletter Spring 2004

HOOVER INSTITUTION SPRING 2004 NEWSLETTERNEWSLETTER

FEDERAL OFFICIALS, JOURNALISTS, HOOVER FELLOWS HOOVER, SIEPR SHARE DISCUSS DOMESTIC AND WORLD AFFAIRS $5 MILLION GIFT AT BOARD OF OVERSEERS MEETING IN HONOR OF GEORGE P. SHULTZ

ecretary of State Colin Powell dis- he Annenberg Foundation has cussed the importance of human granted Stanford University $5 Srights,democracy,and the rule of law Tmillion to honor former U.S. secre- when he addressed the Hoover Institution tary of state George P. Shultz. Board of Overseers and guests on Febru- The Hoover Institution will receive $4 ary 23 in Washington, D.C. million to endow the Walter and Leonore Powell told the group of more than 200 Annenberg Fund in honor of George P. who gathered to hear his postluncheon talk Shultz, which will support the Annenberg that worldwide political and economic Distinguished Visiting Fellow. conditions present not only problems but The Stanford Institute for Economic also great opportunities to share American Policy Research (SIEPR) will receive $1 values. million for the George P. Shultz Disserta- Other speakers during the day included tion Support Fund, which supports empir- Dinesh D’Souza, the Robert and Karen ical research by graduate students working Rishwain Research Fellow, who discussed on dissertations oriented toward problems Colin Powell the future of American conservativism. of economic policy. Reflecting on the legacy of Ronald ing values and virtues that have sustained “In all of his capacities, George has Reagan’s presidency, he pointed to endur- American society for more than 200 years. given unstintingly to this institution over continued on page 8 continued on page 4

PRESIDENT BUSH NAMES HENRY S. ROWEN • INSIDE • TO PANEL ON WEAPONS OF PAPERS OF T. V. S OONG MASS DESTRUCTION TO BE OPENED ...... 2 GEORGE P. S HULTZ PRESENTS oover Institution senior fellow chusetts Institute of THIRD KISSINGER LECTURE Henry S. Rowen was named by Te chnolog y s ince AT LIBRARY OF CONGRESS . . . . . 3 President Bush in Feburary as a 1990, completed the H IALL ERGUSON member of the Commission on Intelli- presidential appoint- N F , VICTOR DAVIS HANSON, gence Capabilities of the United States ments to the panel. The nine-member A. MICHAEL SPENCE NAMED Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. independent and bipartisan group includes SENIOR FELLOWS ...... 12 His appointment, along with that of cochairs Charles S. Robb and Judge Lau- Charles M. Vest, president of the Massa- continued on page 10 HOOVER INSTITUTION See our web site's new look—now with easier navigation. ONLINEONLINE Visit us for daily news and updates at www.hoover.org PAPERS OF T. V. S OONG TO BE OPENED FOR FIRST TIME

he family of one of the most influen- private family archives. tial figures in modern Chinese Michael Feng, grandson Thistory has decided to open fully,for of T. V. Soong, hand- the first time, its historical papers for carried these newly research in the Hoover Institution available materials from Michael Feng (left), grandson of T. V. Soong, was joined by Archives. New York to the Hoover Elliot Feng (center), great-grandson of T. V. Soong, and Leo T. V. Soong, foreign minister of China Institution at Stanford Soong (right), nephew of T. V. Soong, who screened the during World War II, worked closely with on March 12, 2004. closed collection for the family in preparation for opening the documents April 26, 2004. United States president Franklin D. Roo- In these papers T.V. sevelt to defeat Japan, negotiated with Soong, as an eyewitness to history, and in their citations will recall the great Moscow to reestablish Chinese sovereignty describes such turning points as the abduc- contributions of T.V.Soong to the modern over Manchuria, and represented China at tion of Chiang Kai-shek in 1936 (called the history of China,” commented Professor the founding of the United Nations. His Sian incident), the dismissal of General Lewis. Hoover Institution senior fellow papers consist of three parts. Joseph Stilwell, and the framing of the Ramon Myers explained that these papers The first part, 39 boxes, has been avail- Sino-Soviet Treaty of 1945. cover the “debates with Winston Churchill, able for research in the Hoover Archives The newly available papers include rare John Davis and many others” and that the since its acquisition as a gift from the family personal correspondence among the Soong files “show Soong to be a loyal and brilliant in the 1970s. That landmark collection has family, including the famed sisters, official representing his country while been used extensively. According to Stan- Madame Chiang Kai-shek, Madame Sun advancing its national interests and strate- ford professor of Chinese politics John Yat -sen, and Madame H. H. K’ung. In an gic thinking.” Lewis,“For the research on my coauthored effort to correct pervasive yeshi-style Once they have been cataloged, these book Uncertain Partners, I was privileged rumors about the family’s personal previously unknown documents will be to draw on the files of the Soong-Stalin finances, the decision was made to open made available, on April 26, 2004, for meetings from June to August 1945 for our private financial papers as well. Although research in the reading room of the Hoover best understanding of Stalin’s postwar private individuals rarely include personal Institution Archives, which is open to the plans for Asia.” financial data in archival donations, T. V. public free of charge. Information can be The second part, 19 boxes, was restricted Soong’s heirs chose transparency to found on the web site: www.hoover.org/hila during the lifetime of Soong’s sister counter unwarranted speculation. or by contacting the head of reference, Madame Chiang Kai-shek out of respect “A l l f u t u r e h i s t o r i a ns of China will mine Carol Leadenham at leadenham@hoover. for her privacy. But when Madame died on these marvelous additions to the archives stanford.edu. October 23, 2003, at age 105, the heirs decided, in the interest of fostering a more EVALUATION BOOT CAMP FOR DEPARTMENT OF accurate understanding of their homeland, EDUCATION GIVEN BY CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON to open the closed 19 boxes. There is a general lack of documentation EDUCATION OUTCOMES on Chinese history. Jonathan Spence, who he Center for Research on Education CREDO director Margaret Raymond, a teaches modern Chinese history at Yale, Outcomes (CREDO) hosted an Hoover research fellow, noted that the wrote recently in the New York Times Book TEvaluation Boot Camp for the workshop combined practical knowledge Review (February 29, 2004) that this gap in United States Department of Education to and big-picture perspectives. the archival record has left much history “in teach a select number of staff about CREDO, whose mission is to improve the hands of Chinese composers of the program evaluation February 25–27 in research and evaluation practice in the area kind of unofficial histories that the Chinese Washing ton, D.C. of educational policy, was established at the call yeshi (literally wild or undocumented The program offered participants an effi- Hoover Institution to improve the body of histories).” cient way to become better advocates, plan- empirical evidence about education reform To counter such unofficial histories,, the ners, and consumers of program evalua- and student performance at the primary family has since augmented the existing tions. The workshop emphasized both skill and secondary levels. For more information official files at Hoover with a third part: building and the strategic use of evaluation on CREDO, see http://credo.stanford.edu/. more than 2,000 documents from their evidence in policy decisions.

2 GEORGE P. S HULTZ PRESENTS THIRD ANNUAL KISSINGER ered in October 2001 by Henry Kissinger himself. LECTURE AT LIBRARY OF CONGRESS The Kissinger Chair establishes an important focus at the Library of Congress for research and discussion of foreign policy and particularly welcome this opportu- ing. Shultz was speaking in his capacity as the international affairs. nity to speak under the mantle of Kissinger Lecturer. (See http://www.loc.gov/ Shultz is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford “IHenry Kissinger, at the venerable loc/kluge/kluge-shultz.html for broadcast of Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institu- Library of Congress, and in Washington, D.C. speech.) tion. He has held four cabinet-level posts: U.S. Beyond the honor,the reason is my conviction The establishment of the Henry Alfred secretary of state, U.S. secretary of the Trea- that we are at one of those special moments in Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and Interna- sury, U.S. secretary of labor, and director of history: the topic of the day is Iraq and tional Relations at the Library of Congress in the Office of Management and Budget. He weapons not accounted for; but the implica- 1999 created an endowment to provide for a also held the Jack Steele Parker Professorship tions of actions in Iraq for the world and for Kissinger Scholar and a Kissinger Lecturer. in International Economics at Stanford Uni- our future go far beyond this immediate case.” The Kissinger Lecturer, chosen annually by versity’s Graduate School of Business and was So began Hoover fellow George P.Shultz as Librarian of Congress James H. Billington, president of Bechtel Corporation from 1974 he delivered the third annual Kissinger may be of any nationality and is an individual to 1982. Lecture, titled “A Changed World,”on Febru- who has achieved distinction in the field of An adapted version of the Kissinger Lecture ary 11 in the Coolidge Auditorium of the foreign affairs. was published on March 29 in the Wall Street Library of Congress’s Thomas Jefferson Build- The inaugural Kissinger Lecture was deliv- Journal.

he Big Show in Bololand: HE IG HOW IN OLOLAND INS The American Relief T B S B W T Expedition to Soviet HOOVER INSTITUTION’S 2003 UNCOMMON Russia in the Famine of 1921, BOOK AWARD written by Hoover research fellow Bertrand Patenaude, was Archives and was published in at the Stanford University Press web site at named by the Hoover Institu- 2002 by Stanford University http://www.sup.org/cgi-bin/search/ tion the winner of its 2003 Press. It portrays a crucial book_desc.cgi?book_id=4467%204493. Uncommon Book Award. American relief expedition to In November 2003,the book was cowin- The award was announced Soviet Russia in 1921 to miti- ner of the prestigious 2003 Marshall by Hoover Institution director gate the impact of the famine Shulman Book Prize from the American John Raisian on February 23 during the that killed millions. Association for the Advancement of Slavic Hoover Institution’s Board of Overseers Information about the book is available Studies (AAASS), in conjunction with the Meeting in Washington, D.C. on the Hoover Institution web site at Harriman Institute at Columbia Univer- The Big Show in Bololand is based on http://www-hoover.stanford.edu/pubaf- sity. materials in the Hoover Institution fairs/newsletter/02091/bololand.html and continued on page 10

GENERAL KEVIN BYRNES, officers currently at Stanford and then Hoover national fellow and U.S. Navy com- visited the Institute for International mander Matthew A. Weingart, who orga- MEMBERS OF U.S. NAVAL Studies, where he presented a seminar on nized the visit. A goal of the program is to STAFF COLLEGE VISIT military and international affairs. expose the participants, during their time General Byrnes assumed the duties of in the United States, to important institu- Army general Kevin commander, United States Army Training tions in American society and government. Bynes met with Hoover and Doctrine Command, in 2002 after While at Hoover they met with Hoover U.S. Institution representa- serving as the director, Army Staff. senior fellow Michael McFaul in a round- tives and the staff of Stanford University’s On February 23, Hoover hosted an table discussion of U.S. foreign policy and Institute for International Studies during a informational visit by international stu- toured the library and archives. visit to campus on March 12. dents of the U.S. Naval Staff College. The Naval Staff College is a graduate- General Byrnes was briefed by Lt. Col. The 36 representatives from 35 coun- level resident program of the Naval War Jeff Fargo, a Hoover national fellow for tries were selected by their countries to College in Newport, Rhode Island, for 2003–4, and Hoover staff about the opera- spend six months in the United States midgrade military officers of various tion of the Institution. He met with army studying international affairs, according to invited nations.

3 policy. The Hoover Institution is a public and also served on the President’s Council OOVER H , SIEPR policy research center devoted to advanced of Economic Advisers during the adminis- SHARE $5 MILLION GIFT study of politics, economics, and political tration of President Dwight Eisenhower. economy—both domestic and foreign—as He was appointed professor of industrial well as international affairs. relations at the University of Chicago continued from page 1 SIEPR director John Shoven said the Graduate School of Business in 1957 and decades,” said Stanford president John L. idea for the dissertation support fund came named dean of the Graduate School of Hennessy. “Stanford is delighted that the from Shultz himself, who believes that Business in 1962. Annenberg Foundation has chosen to scholars who develop and evaluate primary From 1968 to 1969 he was a fellow at honor him by supporting those key aspects sources of data about the economy will Stanford’s Center for Advanced Study in of the university that mean so much to gain deeper insights into their topics of the Behavioral Sciences, and he returned to him. We are also pleased the foundation is study. Shoven said this fund supports Stanford in 1989.He was also president and continuing its long-standing generous rela- SIEPR’s mission of training a new genera- director of Bechtel Group from 1974 to tionship with Stanford in this way.” tion of economists to conduct research on 1982, and he continues to serve on its Shultz was the honorary chairman of relevant issues to develop effective eco- board of directors, as well as the boards of SIEPR’s first annual economic summit on nomic and public policy. Fremont Group, Gilead Sciences, and February 27 of this year. He served as U.S. “This gift will open up new opportuni- Charles Schwab & Co. He is chairman of secretary of state from 1982 to 1989, secre- ties for graduate students at Stanford Uni- the International Council of JPMorgan- tary of the Treasury from 1972 to 1974, versity,”Shoven said.“It will enable them to Chase and chairman of the Accenture director of the Office of Management and become familiar with their research topics Energy Advisory Board. Budget from 1970 to 1972, and secretary of firsthand rather than rely on secondhand Shultz is the author of numerous publi- labor from 1969 to 1970. sources. It might allow some students to cations and has received the Presidential The Jack Steele Parker Professor of follow in the footsteps of George Shultz.” Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest International Economics at the Graduate Shultz will participate in the selection of civilian honor; the Seoul Peace Prize; the School of Business, Shultz is also the Hoover’s Distinguished Annenberg Eisenhower Medal for Leadership and Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distin- Fellows. Recipients of SIEPR’s dissertation Service; and the Reagan Distinguished guished Fellow at the Hoover Institution support fund will be chosen by the SIEPR American Award. on War, Revolution and Peace and a found- director, the Hoover Institution director, The Annenberg Foundation was ing member of SIEPR’s advisory board. and the chair of the Department of Eco- founded by Ambassador Walter H. Annen- “The Annenberg Foundation’s support nomics, and all dissertation-level students berg in 1958 to advance the public well- will allow Hoover to recruit individuals of in economics at Stanford will be eligible. being through improved communication. high standing and superior expertise to Shultz received his B.A. degree in eco- The Annenbergs began their close friend- engage, for a limited term, in research of nomics from Princeton University in 1942. ship with Shultz when Walter served as contemporary importance,” said Hoover He then served in the U.S. Marine Corps ambassador to Great Britain from 1969 to director John Raisian. “The Annenberg through 1945 and returned to academia to 1974. Annenberg’s widow Leonore, a Stan- Distinguished Fellow will be a visiting earn his Ph.D. degree in industrial eco- ford alumna, now directs the foundation, fellow who will join with Hoover’s resident nomics from the Massachusetts Institute of which decided to recognize and honor scholars to produce scholarly writings and Te chnology in 1949. During that time, he Shultz’s many contributions and accom- analysis for distribution to broad audi- conducted firsthand research on the Ten- plishments at Stanford, across the nation, ences, including the Stanford community.” nessee Valley Authority and New England and throughout the world by supporting Raisian said the fellow will focus on the shoe factories, Shoven said. areas of academic importance to him. fields of national security and foreign Shultz taught at MIT from 1948 to 1957,

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www.hoover.org Comprehensive information about the Institution, its fellows, work, scholarly output, and The Hoover Institution Newsletter is published quarterly and distributed by outreach the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6010, www.hooverdigest.org Quarterly Hoover Digest available online 650/723-0603, fax, 650/725-8611. ©2003 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. Send comments and requests for informa- www.educationnext.org Presents the facts about education reform, gives voice—without fear or favor—to tion to Newsletter Editor Michele M. Horaney, APR, Manager of Public Affairs. worthy research, sound ideas and responsible arguments. The Hoover Institution Home Page is on the World Wide Web at www.policyreview.org The preeminent publication for new and serious thinking and writing about the issues of www.hoover.org. our day. At this site find select articles from the current issue as well as an archive of The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University, back issues, subscription information, and useful links to other web sites. founded in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, is one of the leading centers in the world www.chinaleadershipmonitor.org Seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's devoted to interdisciplinary scholarship in domestic and international affairs. leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies.

4 H OOVER IN P RINT

When a use of force is undertaken with proper preparation and full consideration To be sure, the No Child Left Behind act by all the relevant agencies of govern- has some glitches and needs repair work, a ment, it is far more likely to be both bit of which started when the education legally and politically sound than if it is department offered states a degree of flexi- undertaken as a secret operation for bility in testing recent immigrants who which responsibility will never be haven’t yet learned English. But most of the acknowledged. Accepting accountability anti-No Child Left Behind grousing comes for mistakes increases the cost of using from the public-school system’s notorious force, but that is more likely than not to aversion to change, its outrageous insis- lead to more rational decisions, and in In the end one can hope the answer is tence that nothing can be done differently any event is the right thing to do. While not to reduce material progress but to without more money, and the willingness targeted killing is and should be a legiti- increase spiritual depth and meaning. If of elected officials to pander to teacher mate option in the protection of our happiness is a fruit or serendipity of pur- unions and local school boards. national security,its utility will depend on suing something else, we may look to Chester E. Finn Jr., Koret Task Force its principled, considered and responsible future generations with some hope. member and senior fellow, National implementation. Surveys of today’s college students indi- Review Online, February 24 Abraham D. Sofaer, senior fellow, cate much stronger interest among them San Francisco Chronicle, March 26 on family, spirituality and service to Complex times require complex foreign their community. Perhaps they will do a policies. The American government has The best way to stimulate the creation of better job of managing the progress the capacity to pursue multiple objectives better materials for our schools is to break paradox. at the same time with difficult but strategic the stranglehold of state [textbook] adop- David Davenport, research fellow, countries like Russia.During the cold war, tions. Let publishers compete to produce Deseret News (Salt Lake City), some American leaders tried to keep it exciting and challenging classroom mate- January 21 simple and cast the entire world as com- rials. Let teachers, who know the kids and munists against us and anti-communists the standards, choose what works in their Difficulties [in the United States space with us. Such simplicity made thugs such classrooms. When it comes to choosing exploration program] should not neces- as Jonas Savimbi in Angola and the textbooks, competition and freedom will sarily discourage us from embarking on apartheid regime in South Africa our produce better results than the heavy a new age of exploration. The promise of “friends.” But the more effective leaders hand of state regulation. knowledge, adventure and resource understood that the United States needed a Diane Ravitch, Koret Task Force acquisition are extraordinary. Young cit- more sophisticated approach that often- member and distinguished visiting izens need a progressive challenge that times included dual-track diplomacy fellow, Austin American-Statesman they can believe in. We should begin this toward the same country. In dealing with (Austin, Texas), February 18 journey with optimism, goodwill, and a the Soviets, this meant the pursuit of arms healthy dose of preparation for the control and democratic regime change in I’ve seen the impact of the National storms that lie ahead. the Soviet bloc at the same time. A simi- Endowment for Democracy, together Jeremi Suri, national fellow, San larly complex strategy for dealing with with other semi and wholly non-govern- Francisco Chronicle, February 1 Russia—and for that matter, Pakistan, ment organizations, in Eastern Europe Iran, Egypt, and Uzbekistan—is needed and the Balkans. Without their work, The hardship that results from economic today. Milosevic might not have been toppled by change always tempts politicians to limit Michael McFaul, senior fellow, a revolution in Serbia. Add the clear individuals’ freedom to buy what they Washington Post, March 14 message that corrupt, oil-bloated Arab want and businesses to hire whom they elites no longer enjoy Washington’s desire. Such political restraints will make The argument that vouchers drain money unconditional support and we could see life more secure—but poorer and less out of the public schools may sound like a some fireworks. Not laser-guided Ameri- dynamic. Ultimately, it will have no high-minded defense of the public system. can military fireworks from the sky, but effect on the number of jobs in the But in reality it’s simple-minded, it isn’t emancipatory Arab fireworks from the United States but only make the ones true, and it provides no justification at all ground. that survive pay less. for denying needy children the educational Timothy Garton Ash, senior fellow, Russell Roberts, research fellow, opportunities that vouchers can offer. The Age (Sydney, Australia), Business Week, February 24 Terry M. Moe, senior fellow, New January 27 Yor k Tim e s , January 24

5 Q &A

“America United or Divided? The 2004 Shaw, and David Brady during the and 24. A portion of each of their presen- Elections” was the topic addressed by Hoover Institution’s Desert Conference tations is captured below in a Q and A Hoover fellows Morris P. Fiorina, Daron 2004 in Southern California on March 23 format.

Morris Fiorina, senior to it but not enough to have a but not like what he or she says about fellow and professor of political war over it. And accept- certain topics.Remember, too, that compe- political science at Stan- ance of gay marriage is strongly tition varies across the states and that the ford University, whose related to age, so with the passage presidency is determined by the electoral, specialty is political of time there’s more and more not the popular, vote. polling, discussed his acceptance. Q: When do you start to see a campaign view of the so-called Q: How does this false belief in come together? polarization of America strong polarization affect the A: You see a lot of movement and decision and true voter attitudes political process? making among voters in the late spring toward policy and social A: I think both parties have lost and early summer. This is the point when issues: opportunities over the years. many voters choose their candidate. After Morris Fiorina Recent presidential candidates the conventions, voter numbers don’t typi- Q: Whereas many pundits and politicians Bill Clinton and George W.Bush appeal to cally move much. argue about the increasing polarization of voters in the middle,when they run,but Q: Are there some defining moments in a American voters, you have a different per- they don’t follow through after they’re campaign? spective. Can you discuss your view? elected. Clinton was going to be a new A: Usually, and several suspects are already A: Despite what we see and hear in the Democrat, but as soon as he took office, he out there for 2004. The convention, as I news media, there is very little evidence became an old tax-and-spend Democrat. mentioned, is one. Another would be the that Americans today are any more polar- George Bush ran as a compassionate con- debates. Voters naturally look for gaffes. ized than they were thirty years ago. Most servative, but when he was elected, he And in this presidential election, another voters are neither far left nor far right.They tacked hard right on social issues. Neither terrorist strike against America would be sit near the middle of the political spec- one reached out to the ambivalent, uncom- one. And if Osama bin Laden is captured, trum and are ambivalent about what they mitted voters to forge a new majority. that would be another. believe on many issues. Q: What should voters look for in Q: Why then all the polarization stories in Daron Shaw, Hoover this presidential election? the news and the way in which the media visiting fellow and a pro- A: There isn’t much time between dramatize so-called red and blue state dif- fessor of political science the Republican National Conven- ferences? at the University of tion in September and the elec- A: Well,for one thing,the media misinter- Texas-Austin, continued tion in November,so the fall cam- pret closely divided elections as deeply the discussion about paign will be relatively compact. divided elections, despite evidence to the polarization and what This means there will be little contrary. For another, the media love con- he’s learned from first- letup between September 1 and flict, which leads them to focus on the hand experience with Election Day. On a related note, extremes even if those views are not repre- candidates about how given his war chest, Bush should sentative of the larger population. Finally, campaigns are run. have a significant communication Daron Shaw party activists and party officeholders in edge up until public funding kicks in fact are more polarized than a generation Q: A voter sees a lot of what looks like around Labor Day. Also, it’ll be interesting ago because liberal Republicans and con- heated competition between candidates, to see which way Kerry goes with his cam- servative Democrats have gotten scarce. an us-and-them attitude, voters on each of paign; the Democrats are conscious But this polarization at the top fades out the far ends of the spectrum, but what’s (perhaps overly so) of the failings of their when we look at the broader population. really happening in a campaign? 1988 and 2000 campaigns and clearly want For example, even on the issue of abortion, A: Close competition is often mistaken for to avoid the “mistakes” of Dukakis and ordinary Democrats and Republicans in polarization. People get very swept up in a Gore. Finally, voters should pay attention the population hold very similar views campaign and they’re rooting for their to the candidates’ attempts to project despite the close association of the party “team.” But just because they want to win certain traits. Democrats are typically elites with pro-choice and pro-life groups. doesn’t mean that they hold extreme opin- thought of as “empathetic” and Republi- Q: What about another hot topic, same-sex ions on issues or that they consistently and cans as “bold” and “assertive.” This means marriage? intensely prefer their candidate’s policy that when a Democrat convinces people A: The majority of Americans are opposed positions. They may support a candidate he’s a strong leader, it can be worth quite a

6 Q &A bit at the polls. Similarly, “compassionate” and are, therefore, most likely to be Republicans often do well on Election Day. defeated. The results of our analysis for the 2004 congressional elections, up David Brady, Hoover to this point, show that there are deputy director and 23 vulnerable Republican House senior fellow and politi- members and 18 vulnerable cal science professor at Democrats. Stanford University, In the Senate, there are eight whose work focuses on Democratic seats I’d call vulnera- the U.S. Congress, fin- ble and five of them are in the ished the panel presenta- south: Florida (Robert Graham), tion with his analysis of Georgia (Zell Miller), Louisiana the 2004 House and (John Breaux), North Carolina Senate Races. (John Edwards), and South Car- gress stays Republican;Reagan wins big in David Brady olina (Fritz Hollings). Among 1984 and the House remains Democratic. Q: Every seat in the House of Representa- Republican senators, five are vulnerable. Q: Do you have any predictions for this tives is up for election this year. You note Q: What determines an election in the U.S. year’s elections? that, in the Senate, there are 19 Democratic House? A: I think the Republicans’ advantage in seats and 15 Republican seats to be filled. A: The most important factor is incum- incumbency, money, and redistricting What do you look at as you watch these bency. This is because incumbent (Texas) makes it very hard for the Demo- elections? members have more money, get favorable crats to take over the House unless there is A: Given that I do not want to spend my redistricting, have name recognition, and, a strong tide toward Kerry and the Demo- time perusing all congressional races, we through their district efforts, have a per- crats. Democrats would have to take more have created an algorithm, which identifies sonal vote, all of which make 95 percent than two-thirds of the vulnerable Republi- which districts are vulnerable, based on plus of incumbents safe. It is the incum- can seats,which just won’t happen because, the alignment of the electorate and the bency factor that largely accounts for even if Kerry wins the election, it will be Congress members’ voting record. The divided government, in that safe incum- very close. In the Senate, my analysis is that most vulnerable incumbents have voted bents can withstand the swings against the Republicans will pick up one to two out of line with the voters in their districts their party: Clinton wins in 1996 yet Con- seats.

MEDIA FELLOWS PROGRAM DRAWS TOP PROFESSIONALS March 19–26, 2004 TO HOOVER Steve Goldstein, Philadelphia Inquirer March 29–April 3, 2004 Mohini Patel, BBC Radio 4 his spring the Media Fellows normal career routines, media fellows can March 25–April 4, 2004 program hosted a wide variety of produce books and articles that often fall John Tierney, New York Times Tfellows from print and broadcast, outside their regular duties. They meet April 5–9, 2004 including Jack Beatty, senior editor at the with members of Hoover’s academic com- Neil King, Wall Street Journal Atlantic Monthly, who was in residence munity without the routine pressures asso- April 12–16, 2004 March 8–12; Carolyn Lochhead,Washing- ciated with media deadlines, and they Shailagh Murray, Wall Street Journal ton correspondent with the San Francisco exchange information and views on the April 12–16, 2004 Chronicle (March 22–26 residence); and economic, political, historical, and social Mark Sandalow, San Francisco Chronicle Ron Elving, senior Washington editor with contexts of public policy views. As fellows, April 12–16, 2004 National Public Radio (May 17–21 resi- they have the full range of research tools David Kaplan, Newsweek dence). Hoover offers available to them. April 19–23, 2004 Media fellows have the opportunity to Other media fellows included Kevin Merida, Washington Post exchange information and perspectives Michael Fletcher, Washington Post April 26–30, 2004 with Hoover scholars through seminars March 15–19, 2004 Andy Nagorski, Newsweek International and informal meetings and with the Michael Potemra, National Review May 9–14, 2004 Hoover and Stanford communities in March 17–24, 2004 Michael Zielenziger, Knight Ridder public lectures. Disengaged from their Tom B et hel l, American Spectator May 10–14, 2004

7 B O ARD OF O VERSEERS

BOARD OF OVERSEERS war and the war on terrorism. He addressed the imprecision of the use of the words “war on terrorism,”noting that the war now being fought in the Middle East is actually much like earlier wars waged against fascist regimes. Senior Fellow Larry Diamond and Research Fellow Williamson Evers discussed the prospects for democracy and development in continued from page 1 Iraq and offered a fairly He also noted that those optimistic analysis. qualities—and the Evers was a senior American family—are adviser for education endangered by technol- working with the Coali- ogy and affluence. tion Provision Author- D’Souza noted that Cal- ity under Ambassador ifornia voters selected Paul Bremer. Diamond Arnold Schwarzenegger also spent time in Iraq in last year’s governor’s earlier this year working recall election because the U.S. authority to he represented hope help move that Iraq and because voters Dinesh D’Souza toward democracy. trusted his instincts. Treasur y Secretary Victor Davis Hanson New York Times columnist David Brooks drew attention to the John Snow said that U.S. growing gulf in ideology between conservatives and liberals.“One job growth appears to be strong and that tax cuts should be con- of the main questions tinued to help pour money into entrepreneurial efforts that will to answer, and one that employ more people. clearly shows where Stephen Friedman, people do stand, is ‘Do assistant to the presi- the American people dent and director of the believe that America is National Economic an exceptional nation Council, spoke at and responsible for dinner about the U.S. spreading democracy labor market and the or should it work in challenges posed by concert with other transformational eco- countries no matter nomic and cultural what?’” changes around the Senior Fellow Victor world. Davis Hanson discussed David Brooks Karl Rove, senior John Snow adviser to President Bush, gave an informa- tive and entertaining talk to more than 200 persons on February 24. Rove noted that Pres- ident Bush set a new tone in the White House, bringing a sense of history and an understanding of the lessons of leadership, and he lauded the capable and able team surrounding the presi- Stephen Friedman Williamson Evers and Larry Diamond

8 B O ARD OF O VERSEERS dent. Rove also Krauthammer said he believed that Bush’s decision to take action touched on the in Iraq had definitely sent a message to other countries in the domestic and inter- Middle East and national challenges thus has had a posi- facing the president tive effect in that and the United States area. since September 11, Tim Russert, as well as those managing editor dealing with a rapidly and moderator of globalizing economy. Meet the Press, told Earlier in the day, the afternoon audi- Washington Post Karl Rove ence he believed that the presidential campaign will re- volve around three issues: the economy, Iraq and terrorism, Joshua Bolton and cultural values. And he remarked that there is a large degree of polarization, not seen in the 2000 election, between members of Charles Krauthammer, far right the two major political parties. columnist Charles Also speaking Krauthammer also were Joshua Bolton, discussed President director of the Bush, pointing to the Office of Manage- president’s interest in ment and Budget, what he called “large and Bill Thomas, issues” such as immi- U.S. member of gration, Medicare Congress and chair- Bill Thomas reform, tax cuts, and man of the Ways and a reinvigoration of Means Committee. the space program. Tim Russert

he Hoover Library and Archives ARCHIVES ADDS RARE EVITA PERON DOCUMENT have acquired a rare handwritten Tpolitical manuscript by Evita Peron AND EXILE ARCHIVE OF JUAN DOMINGO PERON and the bulk of Juan Domingo Peron’s archive from 1955 to 1972, the years of his Mellid. Most of the newly acquired letters General Peron, political traitors, and the exile. are to Peron from his confidants and beneficiaries of Peron’s “new Argentina.” The new Peron materials, consisting of others, chief among them Pablo Vicente, Peron was president of Argentina from almost 1,200 letters and other documents, Pedro Michelini, Raul Matera, Ramon 1946 until removed by a military coup in raise the total Peron-related correspon- Landajo, and Jorge Antonio. 1951; he returned to Argentina in 1972 and dence in the Hoover Archives to some Whereas almost everything Peron wrote was president again from 1973 until his 1,500 pieces. was political, Evita rarely wrote down her death in July 1974. The party Peron About 150 of the letters are by Peron to political views, making what was probably founded is the major party in Argentina such colleagues as Hipolito Paz, Maria de la the draft of a speech unusual. In it she dis- today, and has been in power for most of Cruz, Americo Barrios, and Atilio Garcia cusses the “soul”of the Argentinean people, the past 14 years.

9 ■ AT INVITATION OF GOVERNOR AND LEGISLATORS, Give vouchers to students in urban districts with failing schools KORET TASK FORCE CREATES SCHOOL POLICY ■ Give scholarships to students with dis- RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TEXAS LAWMAKERS abilities ■ Create more and better charter schools n response to an invitation from Texas Chester Finn Jr., the task force chairman. ■ Restore democracy to local school governor Rick Perry and legislative “Texas has long been regarded as a boards Ileaders, the Hoover Institution Koret national leader in education reform. With ■ Improve reading competence via Task Force on K–12 Education has created strong accountability reforms already in smarter testing a set of 10 key policy recommendations for place and growing opportunities for educa- ■ Deregulate textbook purchasing the consideration of Texas education law- tion choice, the Lone Star State is building Authors of the memoranda are members makers. on a solid foundation as it moves forward of the Koret Task Force on K–12 Education: The recommendations were presented to improve its education system.” John E. Chubb, Chester E. Finn Jr., Eric A. in February to the Texas legislature’s House By simultaneously addressing all the key Hanushek, Paul T. Hill,E.D.Hirsch Jr., Car- Select Committee on Public School Finance elements of this reform—including school oline M. Hoxby, Terry M. Moe, Paul E. in Austin. The task force provided back- finance, school choice, rewards, teachers, Peterson, Diane Ravitch, and Herbert J. ground and analysis on current education principals, standards, tests, textbooks, and Walberg. policies and proposed reforms that can be school boards—Finn said that Texas has a The Koret Task Force on K–12 expeditiously implemented in the state. rare opportunity to forge coherent and Education is the centerpiece of the Koret Task Force members applied the bold policies that will work for the state’s Hoover Institution’s Initiative on American principles of accountability, transparency, children, parents, educators, and taxpayers. Public Education. Supported by the Koret and choice to Texas,responding to the chal- Ten hi g h l i ghts of the Koret recommen- Foundation, the members of the task lenges enumerated by state leaders in their dations follow: force are nationally recognized experts invitations to the task force. ■ Revamp school finance in education and education policy. “These proposals, based on research and ■ Strengthen accountability More information about them and the national experience, will enable Texas poli- ■ Create incentives and rewards for teach- task force’s work is available at cymakers to provide more effective, equi- ers and principals http://www.hoover.stanford.edu/koret/ table, and efficient primary and secondary ■ Invoke a professional contract for teach- default.htm. schooling for all the state’s citizens,” said ers and principals

BOLOLAND WINS 2003 Patenaude also is the author, with T. published book or other significant work Emmons, of War, Revolution, and Peace in on a public policy issue that, in the panel’s BOOK AWARD Russia: The Passages of Frank Golder, determination, meets the highest standards 1914–1927 (Hoover Institution Press, of scholarship at the Hoover Institution. continued from page 3 1992); The Russian Revolution and Stalin The $10,000 honorarium that accompa- Bertrand M. Patenaude is a research and Stalinism (Garland Publishing, 1992); nies the Uncommon Book Award is under- fellow at the Hoover Institution and an and Soviet Scholarship under Gorbachev written by a gift from Hoover Institution expert in Russian and modern European (Stanford University Press, 1988). senior fellow Rita Ricardo-Campbell and history. He is researching a study of the The W. Glenn Campbell and Rita the late director emeritus Glenn Campbell. 1992 Moscow trial of the Communist Party Ricardo-Campbell Uncommon Book The award recognizes the work of a Hoover of the Soviet Union, based on thousands of Award is presented annually to an author fellow, or other person associated with the primary documents collected by the affiliated with the Hoover Institution Institution, whose writing and research Russian prosecutors and available on whose work is selected by a panel of reaches the highest standards of scholar- microfilm at the Hoover Institution. Hoover fellows. The award is given for a ship on public policy issues.

HENRY ROWEN Rust Emeritus Professor of Public Policy from 1961 to 1964. and Management at the Stanford Graduate Rowen’s full biography is at School of Business. He served as assistant http://www.hoover.stanford.edu/BIOS/ continued from page 1 secretary of defense for international secu- rowen.html. rence H. Silberman and Senator John rity affairs from 1989 to 1991, chairman of The White House news release McCain of Arizona. the U.S. Intelligence Council from 1981 to on the appointment is at http:// Henry Rowen was appointed a Hoover 1983, and deputy assistant secretary of www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/ senior fellow in 1983. He is the Edward B. defense for international security affairs 2004/02/20040212-9.html.

10 P UBLICATION R E VIEW

he Hoover Institution presents a wide range of opinions, expert research, and com- ferent perspectives. By Exhibits Coordina- Tmentary in four recognized and acclaimed publications: Hoover Digest, Education tor Cecile Hill. Next, Policy Review, and China Leadership Monitor. At newsletter press time, new issues of Hoover Digest and Policy Review were available; the highlights are below Policy Review www.policyreview.org Hoover Digest cies? By concentrating on the basics and ■ “Power and Population in Asia: Demo- www.hooverdigest.org building the capabilities we need to defeat graphics and the Strategic Balance.” By ■ “The War on Terror: A Changed World.” today’s threats. By Hoover fellow Bruce Nicholas Eberstadt. “I cannot emphasize too strongly the Berkowitz. ■ “A Lawless Global Court: How the Inter- danger we are facing. We are engaged in a ■ “Defining Social Welfare—and Achiev- national Criminal Court Undermines the long and bitter war. Ye t t h i s i s a war we ing It.”Whether you define social welfare as U.N. System.” By John Rosenthal. cannot—and will not—lose.” By Hoover wealth, health, or happiness, you’ll discover ■ “Burgers, Fries and Lawyers: Fast Food fellow George P.Shultz. that it’s best achieved by way of property as a Scapegoat for Fat America.”By Todd G. ■ “Iraq: The Long Haul.” Helping Iraq to rights and limited government. By Hoover Buchholz. establish a free and democratic society is fellow Richard Epstein. ■ “Intelligence Failures: The Wrong the most important task our nation will ■ “Why Vouchers Will Enrich Public Model for the War on Terror.” By face for years to come. By Hoover fellow Schools.” Voucher programs would starve Richard L. Russell. Larry Diamond. public schools of funding. True or false? ■ “Powers, War, and Public Opinion: ■ “When Words Go Bad.” The empty Hoover fellow Terry M. Moe provides the Looking behind the Transatlantic Divide.” vocabulary of anti-Americanism. By answer. By Ronald Asmus, Philip P. Everts, and Hoover fellow Victor Davis Hanson. ■ “From the Hoover Archives: Troubling Pierangelo Isernia. ■ “Intelligence Reform: Less Is More.” Images.” The Northern Ireland conflict as How can we improve the nation’s spy agen- seen from the participants’ strikingly dif-

KERRY AND EDWARDS LED BUSH GOING INTO survey was administered to a random adult CALIFORNIA PRIMARY ELECTION: sample of the Knowledge Networks web- enabled panel between February 23 and STANFORD-HOOVER–KNOWLEDGE NETWORKS REPORT February 29. The analysis is based on inter- views with 667 registered voters likely to n the third of a series of Stanford Uni- fellows. Their aim was to learn more about vote in the primary election. The sampling versity–Hoover Institution–Knowl- voter attitudes and preferences as the Cali- margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 per- Iedge Networks reports on the Califor- fornia presidential primary approached on centage points for the full sample and 4.5 nia primary election, both Senator John March 2. They worked in concert with percentage points for the analysis of the Kerry and Senator John Edwards led Presi- Knowledge Networks’ vice president and Democratic primary. dent Bush among registered voters likely to managing director Michael Dennis on the This was the third of three surveys con- vote in the March 2 California Democratic administration of the survey and analysis ducted before the California primary. The primary. of the results. results of the first survey were released on Kerry led Bush 43 percent to 38 percent, Senator John Kerry continued to lead February 18, the second set of results was and Edwards led Bush 44 percent to 37 John Edwards by more than a 2-to-1 released on February 27, and the third set percent. As expected, the results demon- margin.When given the actual presidential was released on March 1. strate that partisan loyalty is a key factor, primary ballot,49 percent ofthe respon- The poll was conducted using the overshadowing differences between the dents voted for Kerry, 22 percent for Knowledge Networks web-enabled two Democratic candidates. Three in four Edwards, with the rest divided among the panel, which provides a representative Democrats support Kerry and Edwards remaining candidates listed on the ballot sample of Californian households over Bush, while four in five Republicans (even though in most cases these candi- (http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ support Bush. dates had terminated their candidacies). ganp). The survey results were weighted to The poll, which was administered on the The third report included 162 inter- U.S. Census population benchmarks for World Wide Web, was designed by Stanford views conducted with registered voters in adults residing in the state of California in University communications professor California between February 27 and Feb- terms of age, race/ethnicity, education Shanto Iyengar and Stanford political ruary 29 and included additional inter- obtainment, and urban/rural and to the science professors David Brady and Morris views with 505 registered voters conducted California secretary of state’s records for Fiorina, who also are Hoover Institution between February 23 and February 26. The political party identification.

11 NIALL FERGUSON, VICTOR DAVIS HANSON, 2002); and Mexifornia: A State of Becoming (Encounter, A. MICHAEL SPENCE NAMED SENIOR FELLOWS 2003).His new book,Ripples of Battle, will be published by he Hoover Institution recently wel- classics program. In 1991 he Doubleday in autumn 2003. comed three new senior fellows who was awarded an American Hanson coauthored, with Twill play a growing role in its research Philological Association John Heath, Who Killed and programs during the year ahead. Excellence in Teaching Award, Homer? The Demise of Classi- They are historian Niall Ferguson, classi- which is given yearly to the cal Education and the Recovery cist Victor Davis Hanson, and economist country’s top undergraduate of Greek Wisdom (Free Press, and Nobel laureate in economic sciences A. teachers of Greek and Latin. Victor Davis Hanson 1998; paperback ed.Encounter Michael Spence. The appointments were Hanson was a National Endowment for Press, 2000) and, with Bruce Thornton and announced by Hoover Institution director the Humanities fellow at the Center for John Heath, Bonfire of the Humanities (ISI John Raisian. Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sci- Books, 2001). Niall Ferguson, the Herzog Professor of ences, Stanford, California (1992–93), a vis- Hanson was educated at the University of Financial History at the Stern Business iting professor of classics at Stanford Univer- California, Santa Cruz (B.A. 1975), the School, New York University, and a noted sity (1991–92), a recipient of the Eric Brein- American School of Classical Studies author, is also a senior research fellow at del Award for opinion journalism (2002), (1978–79) and received his Ph.D. in classics Jesus College, Oxford University, where he is and an Alexander Onassis Fellow (2001) and from Stanford University in 1980. a visiting professor of history. was named alumnus of the year of the Uni- A. Michael Spence, who was awarded the Ferguson’s first book, Paper and Iron: versity of California, Santa Cruz (2002). He Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences Hamburg Business and was also the visiting Shifrin in 2001, is also Philip H. Knight Professor German Politics in the Era of Chair of Military History at the Emeritus of Management in the Graduate Inflation 1897—1927 (Cam- U.S. Naval Academy, Annapo- School of Business at Stanford University. bridge University Press, lis, Maryland (2002–3). Spence is the fifth Hoover fellow to also 1995), was short-listed for the Hanson has written or be a Nobel laureate. History Today Book of the edited thirteen books, includ- Spence served as Philip H. Knight Profes- Ye a r Aw ard; the collection of ing Warfare and Agriculture in sor and dean of the Stanford Business essays he edited, Virtual Classical Greece (1983; paper- School from 1990 to 1999. As dean, he History: Alternatives and back ed. University of Califor- oversaw the finances, organization, and edu- Counterfactuals (Macmillan, nia Press, 1998); The Western cational policies of the school.Since 1999,he 1997), was a best seller in the Way of War (Alfred Knopf, has been a partner at Oak Hill Capital Part- United Kingdom. Niall Ferguson 1989; 2d paperback ed. Univer- ners in Menlo Park. In 1998 he published, to international sity of California Press, 2000); He taught at Stanford as an critical acclaim, The Pity of War: Explaining Hoplites: The Ancient Greek associate professor of econom- World War One (Basic Books) and The Battle Experience (Routledge, ics from 1973 to 1975. World’s Banker: The History of the House of 1991; paperback ed. 1992); From 1975 to 1990, he Rothschild (Penguin). The latter won the The Other Greeks: The Family served as professor of eco- Wadswor th Prize for Business History and Farm and the Agrarian Roots nomics and business adminis- was also short-listed for the Jewish Quar- of Western Civilization (Free tration at Harvard University, terly/Wingate Literary Award and the Amer- Press, 1995; 2d paperback ed. holding a joint appointment in ican National Jewish Book Award. In 2001 University of California Press, its Business School and the he published The Cash Nexus: Money and 2000); Fields without Dreams: Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Power in the Modern World, 1700–2000 Defending the Agrarian Idea In l983, he was named chair- (Basic), the product of a year as Houblon- (Free Press, 1996; paperback A. Michael Spence man of the Economics Norman Fellow at the Bank of England. ed. Touchstone, 1997); The Land Was Every- Department and George Gund Professor of Born in Glasgow in 1964, Ferguson was thing: Letters from an American Farmer (Free Economics and Business Administration. awarded a Demyship (half fellowship) for Press, 2000); The Wars of the Ancient Greeks Spence was awarded the John Kenneth Gal- his academic achievements by Magdalen (Cassell, 1999; paperback ed., 2001); The braith Prize for excellence in teaching in College, Oxford, in 1981 and graduated with Soul of Battle (Free Press, 1999, paperback 1978 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1981 First Class Honours in 1985. ed. Anchor/ Vintage, 2000); Carnage and for a “significant contribution to economic Victor Davis Hanson joined California Culture (Doubleday, 2001; Anchor/ Vintage, thought and knowledge.” State University, Fresno, in 1984 to initiate a 2002); An Autumn of War (Anchor/Vintage, continued on page 13

12 H OOVER ON THE A IR

Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo, Mich., on March 23; WLS-TV(ABC) in Chicago, Senior Fellow Abraham Sofaer com- WTVC-TV (ABC) in Chattanooga, Tenn., mented on Iraqi security on Lou Dobbs on March 24; and WJBF-TV (ABC), Tonight on CNN National on March 19 and Augusta, Ga., on March 25. The report was KUSI News on KUSI-TV (Ind.) in San part of a segment prepared by ScienCen- Diego on March 20. tral for national distribution. Developments in Iraq also were discussed Senior Fellow Eric Hanushek discussed Hoover visiting fellow Nicholas Econo- by Research Fellow Donald Abenheim on the importance of class size and the mis- mides addressed the dispute between KNTV-TV (NBC), San Francisco, on taken notion that all classrooms should be Microsoft and the European Union on The March 7 and by Senior Fellow Larry small, particularly in higher grades, on Big Picture on WBBR-AM radio Diamond on KCBS-AM radio (CBS), San KAMC-TV(ABC) in Lubbock, Tex., KIII- (NBC/ABC), New York, on March 24. Francisco, on March 5. TV (ABC), Corpus Christi, Tex., KGTV- TV (ABC) in San Diego, KGUN-TV Research Fellow Stanley Kurtz was one of Research Fellow Bill Whalen talked about (ABC) in Tuscon, Ariz., WAAY-TV (ABC) four panelists on same-sex marriage on the seriousness with which the White in Huntsville/Decatur, Ga., WBAY-TV National Public Radio’s popular Talk of the House is taking California as the presiden- (ABC) in Green Bay/ Appleton, Wis., Nation on March 9. He also was featured tial campaign season opened on KGO-AM WHAS-TV (ABC) in Louisville, Ken., on The O’Reilly Factor on the same subject (ABC), San Francisco, on March 22. WKBW-TV (ABC) in Buffalo, N.Y., on Fox News on March 8. WMUR-TV (ABC) in Boston, WVED-TV Research Fellow Dinesh D’Souza was one (ABC) in Norfolk/Portsmouth, Va., on Senior Fellow Thomas Henriksen dis- of three panelists on The Dennis Miller March 22; KBMT-TV(ABC) in Beau- cussed former White House counterterror- Show on CNBC-TV on March 8 who dis- mont/Port Arthur, Tex., KRGV-TV (ABC) ism chief Richard Clarke’s work and new cussed the end of the Howard Dean presi- in Harlingen/Brownsville, Tex., WTAE-TV book on KGO-TV (ABC), San Francisco, dential campaign. (ABC) in Pittsburgh, Penn.,WZZM-TV in on March 22.

HOOVER FELLOW THOMAS SOWELL RECEIVES The Lysander Spooner Awards are presented by Laissez Faire Books to honor LYSANDER SPOONER AWARD FOR APPLIED ECONOMICS those who continue to advocate freedom. pplied Economics: Thinking beyond focus on applying economic principles to This honor is awarded monthly to the most Stage One (Basic Books, 2003), the real-world problems. He explains many important contributions to the literature of Alatest book by Hoover fellow points the reader may not be acquainted liberty, followed by an annual award to the Thomas Sowell, was awarded the Lysander with and offers a fresh treatment of familiar author of the best book on liberty for the Spooner Award for Advancing the Litera- points with an abundance of fascinating year. ture of Liberty. illustrations. Sowell, a syndicated columnist and pro- Often described as the ideal companion Publishers Weekly said that “the great lific author of popular and academic to Sowell’s Basic Economics: A Citizen’s achievement of Sowell’s book is its simplic- volumes, is the Rose and Milton Friedman Guide to the Economy, this new volume ity. His writing is easy and lucid, an Senior Fellow in Public Policy at the Hoover moves beyond the pure economic princi- admirable trait considering the topic at Institution. ples that he explained in Basic Economics to hand.”

SENIOR FELLOWS NAMED Arts and Sciences in 1983 and was awarded sity Press, 1980); and Market Signaling: the David A. Wells Prize for outstanding Informational Transfer in Hiring and Related continued from page 12 doctoral dissertation at Harvard University Processes (Harvard University Press, 1974). From 1984 to 1990, Spence served as the in 1972. Spence was named a Danforth Fellow dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Among his many publications are Com- and a Rhodes Scholar, both in 1966. He was Harvard, overseeing Harvard College, the petitive Structure in Investment Banking, awarded a B.A. summa cum laude degree Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, and with Samuel Hayes and David Marks from Princeton University in 1966, a B.A.- the Division of Continuing Education. (Harvard University Press, 1983); Industrial M.A. degree from Oxford University in Among his many honors, Spence was Organization in an Open Economy, with R. 1968, and a Ph.D. degree in economics from elected a fellow of the American Academy of E. Caves and M. E. Porter (Harvard Univer- Harvard in 1972.

13 R ECENT R ELEASES

Anti-Americanism in Europe: canism: the movement against globaliza- The Political Economy of Stalinism: A Cultural Problem tion. Evidence From the Soviet Secret Archives by Russell A. Berman With anti-Americanism on the rise, this by Paul R. Gregory (ISBN: 0-8179-4512-1) timely book contributes to understanding (ISBN: 0-521-53367-8) Although the meaning of the phrase anti- an important ideological challenge. The formerly secret Soviet State and Com- American doesn’t need to be explained, why Berman, the Walter A. Haas Professor in munist Party Archives are used to describe anti-Americanism is spreading, especially the Humanities at Stanford University, is a the creation and operation of the Soviet in countries that have been allied with the senior fellow, by courtesy, at the Hoover administrative-command system in the United States, requires more consideration. Institution. new landmark volume The Political In Anti-Americanism in Europe: A Cul- Economy of Stalinism: Evidence from the tural Problem (Hoover Institution Press, The Bushes: Portrait of a Dynasty Soviet Secret Archives (Cambridge Univer- 2004), Hoover senior fellow Russell Berman by Peter Schweizer and Rochelle sity Press, 2004) by Paul R. Gregory. delves into the reasons behind the strained Schweizer Gregory, a research fellow at the Hoover relations between the United States and (ISBN: 0-385-49863-2) Institution and the Cullen Professor of some of its traditional European allies since A new book on the Bush family provides Economics at the University of Houston, September 11. In his new book Berman an unusually open and candid look at this and a team of researchers began work in explores various dimensions of contempo- very private family. In The Bushes: Portrait 1996 on materials in the Soviet archives in rary European anti-Americanism. of a Dynasty (Doubleday, 2004) Peter Moscow and at the Hoover Institution. Because anti-Americanism is a cultural Schweizer, Hoover research fellow, and What they determined, Gregory writes, problem—albeit with enormous conse- Rochelle Schweizer have done remarkable was that the system in the Soviet Union quences for policy—Berman approaches it research on the history of the family. failed not because of the “jockey” (i.e., using the tools of cultural analysis. Thus the From family patriarchs such as Samuel Stalin and later leaders) but because of the chapters in this book look at anti-Ameri- P. Bu s h a n d B e r t Wa lker, who made—and “horse” (the economic system). canism in a variety of contexts. sometimes lost—fortunes in business, to “A l t h o u g h S t a l i n w a s the system’s prime Chapter 1 examines several recent family matriarchs such as Dorothy Walker architect, the system was managed by surveys to determine the quantitative scope Bush, who exerted a strong influence on thousands of ‘Stalins’ in a nested dictator- of anti-American sentiment, especially the values of the family, to today’s presi- ship,” Gregory writes. “This study pin- since September 11, with a focus on dent, the making of this family dynasty is points the reasons for the failure of the Germany. Chapter 2 describes how anti- examined generation by generation. For system—poor planning, unreliable sup- Americanism goes beyond rational debates those who seek insight on the Bush family plies, the preferential treatment of indige- over policy—a critic of this or that Ameri- and the influence of its members on nous enterprises, the lack of knowledge of can policy is hardly necessarily an anti- society, this book provides a wealth of planners, etc.—but also focuses on the American—and takes on an obsessive char- information. basic principal-agent conflict between acter. Chapter 3 examines the shape of anti- Peter Schweizer is a research fellow at planners and producers, which created a Americanism in the debates over the Iraq the Hoover Institution and a best-selling sixty-year reform stalemate.” war. Chapter 4 explores another aspect of author. He notes that once Gorbachev gave anti-Americanism: a reluctance to criticize Rochelle Schweizer is a writer and enterprises their freedom, the system had bad regimes for fear of siding with the media consultant with experience in the no direction from either a plan or a United States. The fifth and final chapter radio and television industries. market, and the system imploded. He looks at another variation of anti-Ameri- believes that, if repeated today, this same

14 R ECENT R ELEASES

Power and Protest: Global Revolution and the Rise of Détente by Jeremi Suri (ISBN: 0-674-01031-0) 2003 Phi Alpha Theta Best First Book Prize In this Harvard University Press volume, National Fellow Jeremi Suri puts the tumultuous 1960s into a truly international perspective in the first study to examine the connections between great power diplomacy and global social protest. Profoundly disturbed by “experiment”would retain its basic contra- Drawing from a wealth of case studies, increasing social and political discon- dictions and inherent flaws and that the they detail how state-owned enterprises tent, cold war powers united on the economic results would again prove infe- (SOEs) enjoy an array of government- international front in the policy of rior. granted privileges and immunities that détente. Although reflecting traditional Paul Gregory is also research professor can be used anticompetitively, revealing balance of power considerations, détente at the German Institute for Economic why an SOE is more likely to engage in thus also developed from a common Research in Berlin. He has published anticompetitive behavior than a privately urge for stability among leaders who by widely in the field of Russian and Soviet owned firm—and why anticompetitive the late 1960s were worried about economics for more than thirty years and behavior by SOEs is likely to be harmful increasingly threatening domestic social served as a visiting professor at Moscow to society. They show how the U.S. Postal activism. State University. Service—as well as postal services In the early part of the decade, cold Gregory received his Ph.D. in econom- abroad—has consistently been guilty of war pressures simultaneously inspired ics from Harvard in 1969. anticompetitive behavior.And they make activists and constrained leaders; within a strong case that government-sponsored a few years activism turned revolution- Competing with the Government: enterprises such as Fannie Mae and ary on a global scale. Suri examines the Anticompetitive Behavior and Public Freddie Mac have actually violated the decade through leaders and protesters Enterprises Sherman Antitrust Act by monopolizing on three continents, including Mao by R. Richard Geddes the automated underwriting market. Zedong, Charles de Gaulle, Martin (ISBN: 0-8179-3992-X) Richard Geddes is a research fellow at Luther King Jr., Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Government-owned and government- the Hoover Institution and an assistant and Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. He subsidized firms compete with private professor in the Department of Policy describes connections between policy firms in a variety of activities but are often Analysis and Management at Cornell and protest from the Berkeley riots to the endowed with privileges and immunities University. From 1991 to 2002, he taught Prague Spring, from the Paris strikes to not enjoyed by their private rivals.Compet- economics at Fordham University in New massive unrest in Wuhan, China. ing with the Government reveals how these Yo r k . Designed to protect the existing polit- privileges give government firms an artifi- Geddes’s current research interests ical order and repress movements for cial competititve advantage that fosters a include the economics of the Postal Reor- change, détente gradually isolated poli- wide range of potentially harmful effects. ganization Act, the effects of rate-of- tics from the public.The growth ofdis- Examining a variety of instances in return regulation on corporate gover- trust and disillusion in nearly every which government and private firms nance, and the economics of women’s society left a lasting legacy of global compete—including freight carriage, elec- rights. unrest, fragmentation, and unprece- tric utilities, financial services, and dented public skepticism toward author- others—the authors raise fundamental ity. questions about the proper relationship Suri is a 2003–4 W. Glenn Campbell between business and government in a and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National market economy and underline the need Fellow at Hoover who is researching for significant policty change regarding “Henry Kissinger and the Transforma- competition between government and tion of International Society.” private firms.

15 ncommon Knowledge™, the weekly public affairs televi- Va l i Na s r, profe s s or of national security affairs, Naval Postgrad- sion program coproduced by the Hoover Institution uate School U and KTEH-TV (PBS) in San Jose, presents a wide array of issues and guests in new segments for spring 2004 now avail- Putin the Terrible? Vladimir Putin and Russian Democracy able on the Public Broadcasting Service. Guests: Steven Fish, professor of political science, University of Hosted by Emmy-nominee and Hoover research fellow Peter California, Berkeley, and Michael McFaul, professor of political Robinson, it is broadcast by more than 50 PBS stations across science, Stanford University, and senior fellow, Hoover Institu- the United States. The audio content is carried overseas by tion National Public Radio International. Details about each segment are available at the Hoover Insti- A Crash Course in Dubyanomics: President Bush’s Economic tution web site, www.hoover.org. New programs this season Policy include Guests: Paul Krugman, author, The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Centur y, columnist, New York Times, professor High-Wire Act: Reforming the Electricity Industry of economics, Princeton University, and Robert Barro, colum- Guests: Vernon Smith, 2002 Nobel Prize–winner in economics nist, Business Week, senior fellow, Hoover Institution, and pro- and professor of economics and law, George Mason University, fessor of economics, Harvard University and Ralph Cavanagh, energy program director, Natural Resources Defense Council Give War a Chance: The Utility of War Guests: Victor Davis Hanson, author, Ripples of Battle: How the Prophets and Losses: The Rise and Decline of Islamic Civi- Wars of the Past Still Determine How We Fight, How We Live, and lization How We Think, and senior fellow, Hoover Institution, and Guests: John Esposito, professor of Islamic studies, Georgetown Jonathan Schell, author, The Unconquerable World: Power, Non- University;Azim Nanji,director,Institute of Ismaili Studies; and violence, and the Will of the People

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