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A Rapid Identification Method for Severely Environ Earth Sci (2016) 75:704 DOI 10.1007/s12665-016-5540-6 ORIGINAL ARTICLE A rapid identification method for severely earthquake-damaged areas based on damaged mobile phone base stations in China 1 2 1 1 Xiaoyong Zhang • Qingshui Lu • Baokun Ning • Zhiyong Huang Received: 26 October 2015 / Accepted: 5 March 2016 Ó Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016 Abstract Obtaining an accurate map of severely dam- property. However, current methods to map earthquake- aged areas immediately after an earthquake is a high pri- damaged areas in China do not meet the required 2-h time ority in China. Previous methods of mapping these areas in constraint. For instance, seismic intensity attenuation the country have been too slow. The increasing number of models rely on seismic intensity in the earthquake epi- mobile phone base stations provides a new means of central region to identify extremely damaged areas, but identifying areas severely damaged by earthquakes in a acquiring seismic intensity data to determine that region very short time. In this study, we derive a new method requires many hours of processing (Yu 1995; Zhang et al. based on the data of faulty mobile phone base stations. Our 2009; Tan et al. 2011). Some studies use earthquake results show that areas of extreme earthquake damage aftershock data to estimate extremely damaged areas. identified according to base stations damaged by the However, with this method, processing the seismic data to Ludian and Lushan earthquakes were in very good agree- derive a map of such areas requires at least 1 day because a ment with large-magnitude seismic intensity zones outlined series of aftershock data observed within 24 h after the by the China Earthquake Administration. This indicates the main earthquake are required (Wu 1995; Han and Jiang reliability of our method, which can be used to help the 2010; Bai et al. 2011). Empirical statistical models can be government provide timely rescue after an earthquake and used to rapidly map severely damaged areas, but the direct resources to high-priority areas. accuracy of such models is low (Xu et al. 2011). United States of America (USA) Government developed Keywords Confidence ellipse Á Earthquake Á Extremely the Shakemap system based on more than 3000 strong damaged area Á Mobile phone base station shake stations to obtain an earthquake intensity map within 3–5 min of an earthquake. This system has been used in many countries (Wald et al. 2003, 2008; Kaka and Atkin- Introduction son 2005; Bragato 2009; Kiratzi 2011). The Japanese Government has built more than 4000 observation stations Obtaining an accurate map of areas severely damaged by to record earthquake intensity. This network can locate an earthquake within 2 h of its occurrence is a priority for severely damaged areas within 2–3 min of an earthquake the emergency command of the Chinese Government. This (Katayama et al. 1988). At present, the number of seismic information is essential for saving lives and protecting stations in China is very small, so the US or Japanese methods to identify severely damaged areas from existing observation systems cannot be used. In the present study, & Qingshui Lu we explore a new method for mapping these areas within a [email protected] very short time of the main shock. 1 National Earthquake Response Support Service, Beijing, The mobile phone base station is the basic unit of China mobile communication services. With growth in the use of 2 Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy these services, the number of base stations is also of Sciences, Yantai 264003, Shandong, China increasing, forming a global communication network. Each 123 704 Page 2 of 6 Environ Earth Sci (2016) 75:704 base station serves as a geographic area called a cell. When the 3 August 2014 earthquake. These locations included an earthquake occurs close to the base station site, the Ludian County and surrounding counties or cities, such as station may be impaired because of damage to optical Qiaojia County, the city of Zhaotong, and Huize County. cables, power failure, or instruments. A faulty base station This dataset was obtained from the Ludian Branches of the can serve as an indicator of damage in the earthquake- China Mobile Phone Company. impacted area. These faulty stations can be identified within 10 min of the earthquake, which meets the Method requirements of the Government Earthquake Rescue Command. Therefore, our objective was to develop a Powerful earthquakes often cause severe damage in a method for mapping severely damaged earthquake areas limited area. In our field surveys after several earthquakes, based on information of faulty mobile phone base stations. we found that base stations in extremely damaged areas As a case study, we selected the Ludian earthquake of 3 were affected, but stations outside those areas experienced August 2014. very little damage. The shape of the extremely damaged area is approxi- mated as elliptical or circular, so both shapes can be Data and method expressed by elliptical equations. Distances from one sta- tion to others around it are calculated, the k-Nearest Study area neighbors algorithm is used to remove stations as outliers whose distances to nearby stations are larger than those of The extent of Ludian County is 27.0–27.53°N, other points (Ismo 2004).The method for calculating con- 103.0–103.7°E in northeastern Yunnan Province. It has a fidence ellipses was used to estimate the severe damage total area of 1519 km2 (Fig. 1) and a population of area (Ding 1990). 385,700. Mountains cover 87.9 % of the county area, and The following variables were calculated using columns 12.1 % lies on a plain. The elevation ranges from 340 to X and Y, which are the longitude and latitude of damaged 4027 m. Ludian is near the Xiyu River–Zhaotong fault base stations: zone. The China mobile phone company has developed a network of mobile phone base stations covering the entire sumx ¼ sumðÞx ð1Þ area. There have been several recent earthquakes in Ludian sumy ¼ sum ðÞy ð2Þ County. The latest earthquake was on 3 August 2014, with sumxx sum x x 3 a magnitude of 6.5 (Zhao et al. 2014; Cheng et al. 2015). ¼ ðÞ ðÞ sumyy ¼ sumðÞy  y ð4Þ Data sumxy ¼ sumðÞx  y ; ð5Þ The data used include two main datasets. One is an where sumx is the sum of x, sumy is the sum of y, sumxx is earthquake intensity map from the China Earthquake the sum of x by x, sumyy is the sum of y by y, and sumxy is Administration (www.cea.gov.cn). The second is locations the sum of x by y. With these values, the means of x and y of mobile phone base stations and faulty base stations after and variance and covariance were calculated as follows: Fig. 1 Location of study area 123 Environ Earth Sci (2016) 75:704 Page 3 of 6 704 sumx xbar ¼ ð6Þ A ¼ 2:3  a ð27Þ n B 2:3 b 28 sumy ¼  ð Þ ybar ¼ ð7Þ n sumxx varx ¼ ð8Þ n Results sumyy vary ¼ ð9Þ n Outliers were removed, and locations (latitude and longi- sumxy tude) of the faulty base stations within the zone of all stations covarxy ¼ ; ð10Þ n damaged by the Ludian earthquake were used to calculate parameters of the confidence ellipse with Eqs. 1–28. where xbar is the mean of x, ybar is the mean of y, varx is Therefore, the geometric center of the extremely dam- the variance of y, varx is the variance of x, and covarxy is aged elliptical zone was 27.099°N, 103.360°E (Table 1). the covariance of xy. The long semi-axis of the 68 % confidence ellipse is New columns are generated by the following equations: 5.42 km, the minor axis is 4.48 km, and the rotation angle dx ¼ x À xbar ð11Þ is 120.47° (Tables 2, 3). The long semi-axis of the 95 % dy ¼ y À ybar ð12Þ confidence ellipse is 12.45 km and the minor semi-axis is 10.30 km. sumdxdx sum dx dx 13 ¼ ðÞ ðÞ Figure 2 shows a seismic intensity map of the 3 August sumdydy ¼ sumðÞdy  dy ð14Þ 2014 Ludian earthquake produced by the China Earthquake Administration, and the ellipse outlining the severely sumdxdy ¼ sumðÞdx  dy ; ð15Þ damaged area estimated based on the faulty mobile phone where dx, dy, sumdxdx, sumdydy, and sumdxdy are new base stations. Areas marked as zones of seismic intensity parameters generated by x and y. Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) VIII and IX represent The angle at which the ellipse is ‘‘rotated’’ from the those with severe damage. The total area predicted by our horizontal is calculated by the following: method using the 95 % confidence ellipse is 402 km2,as 2 2  sumdxdx compared with the actual area of 380 km according to the theta ¼ 0:5  arctan ð16Þ sumdydy À sumdxdx China Earthquake Administration (www.cea.gov.cn). The accuracy of the predicted area by our method using the c ¼ cosðÞ theta ð17Þ 95 % confidence ellipse is 95 % (the percent of the pre- s ¼ sinðÞ theta ð18Þ dicted area by our method using the 95 % confidence ellipse to the actual extremely damaged area), and our X c dx s dy new ¼  À  ð19Þ predicted severely damaged area nearly coincides with that Ynew ¼ s  dx þ c  dy ð20Þ determined by a field survey, demonstrating the accuracy of our predicted result. sum XnewXnew ¼ sumðÞðXnew  Xnew 21Þ sum YnewYnew ¼ sumðÞðYnew  Ynew 22Þ sum XnewXnew Discussion varXnew ¼ ð23Þ n A mobile phone base station is composed of a machine sum YnewYnew varYnew ¼ ð24Þ room and an iron tower.
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