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Energy Technology November 12, 2001 Technology Research Energy Technology Investing in the Power of the 21st Century Source: Stone. Hugh M. Anderson 646.366.4521 Table of Contents Energy Technology—Investing in the Power of the 21st Century...........................................................1 Energy Technology—Major Investment Themes.......................................................................................2 Robertson Stephens Energy Technology Stock Coverage......................................................................5 Energy Technology—Fundamental Market Analysis ................................................................................7 The Structure of the Power Network in the United States .........................................................................7 The Advantages of the Centralized Power Network ................................................................................14 The Disadvantages of the Centralized Power Network ...........................................................................15 The Deregulation of the Power Industry ..................................................................................................18 Pricing, Tariffs and Rate Structures .........................................................................................................25 Merchant Power Operations ....................................................................................................................26 The Demand for Energy Technology ........................................................................................................28 Two Sources of Demand: Power Provider and Power Customer............................................................28 Power Provider Demand and Market Size...............................................................................................28 Power Customer Demand and Market Size.............................................................................................29 The Demand for Measurement and Intelligence......................................................................................31 Power Quality Costs and Their Relation to Market Size..........................................................................31 The Main Causes of Power Quality Problems .........................................................................................33 Energy Technology Solutions for Power Providers and Power Customers.........................................34 Incumbent Solutions.................................................................................................................................34 New Energy Technologies for Power Providers ......................................................................................38 New Energy Technologies for Power Customers ....................................................................................43 Distributed Generation Applications.........................................................................................................48 The Economics of Distributed Generation ...............................................................................................49 The Distribution of New Energy Technologies.........................................................................................51 The Basic Science of the New Energy Technologies..............................................................................51 Flywheels Compared with Batteries for Ride-Through Power Applications ............................................52 Types of Fuel Cells ..................................................................................................................................53 The Political and Regulatory Initiatives in Energy Technology .............................................................56 The Bush Energy Plan .............................................................................................................................57 The Key Federal Players and the Bills They Have Introduced ................................................................57 Energy Technology—Investment Analysis ..............................................................................................58 The Public Company Universe and the RSET Index...............................................................................58 Energy Technology Capital Markets in 2000–2001 .................................................................................60 How the Stocks Trade.................................................................................................................................61 The Energy Technology Software, Services and Information Stocks......................................................61 The Energy Technology Power Quality Stocks .......................................................................................62 The Energy Technology Distributed Generation Stocks..........................................................................63 Volume Analysis of the RSET Index ........................................................................................................65 Internal or Relative Strength Analysis of the RSET Index .......................................................................66 Institutional Ownership of RSET Components.........................................................................................67 Days Short Outstanding...........................................................................................................................68 Sell-Side Coverage ..................................................................................................................................69 Valuation ......................................................................................................................................................70 Cash.........................................................................................................................................................72 Private Market Activity in Energy Technology.........................................................................................72 Energy Technology Companies Covered by Robertson Stephens .......................................................75 Public Energy Technology Companies not Covered by Robertson Stephens...................................171 Private Energy Technology Companies .................................................................................................197 Energy Technology—Investing in the Power of the 21st Century We recently initiated coverage of the energy technology sector, which we believe represents one of the most significant investment opportunities for the next ten years. Our investment thesis is based on the following concepts: • The power industry is in a secular upward swing in IT investment, while the majority of other economy sectors are in an IT investment downswing. • The proliferation of the semiconductor into networks and process control manufacturing has dramatically increased the demand for high-quality and reliability in power systems. • The strength of the current power network is that it provides relatively cheap power to a high number of users; the weakness of the power network is that it has frequent sags, surges and cuts that are detrimental to semiconductor-controlled systems. We believe there are two basic demand trends in energy technology: • The rapid growth in competitive markets for power and natural gas is motivating a fundamental restructuring in the $250 billion U.S. power industry. • Power customers are demanding technologies that lower their average energy costs and improve power quality and reliability. We have segmented the energy technology stocks into three groups: Software, Services and Information: Companies that provide enterprise systems, services and IT solutions to the power industry and power customers. Power Quality: Companies that provide power quality hardware used to correct sags, surges and cuts in the power supply. Distributed Generation: Companies that develop small-scale power systems that can be sited directly at the source of end-user load demand. We believe that most significant current investment opportunities are driven by the considerable demand from power providers for new energy enterprise software and middleware systems, network platforms, and intelligent metering and measurement systems. We also believe that there will continue to be substantial growth in the demand for new power quality technologies that enable power customers to attain high levels of power reliability and quality. According to Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), U.S. businesses lost $0.33 for every $1.00 spent on power in 2000 as a result of power quality problems. We have initiated coverage of four stocks within these segments: Software, Services and Information: Caminus Corporationa (CAMZ $15.85) with a Buy rating and a $28 per share price target. Power Quality: Active Power, Inc.a (ACPW $5.53) with a Market Perform rating. Distributed Generation: Capstone Turbine Corporationa (CPST $4.80) with a Market Perform rating and FuelCell Energy, Inc.a (FCEL $14.50) with a Market Perform rating. Robertson Stephens, Inc. 1 Energy Technology—Major Investment Themes We have established six major investment themes for the energy technology industry: • Investment dollars follow the lead of deregulation; • Better to work with the current power network than against it;
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