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Assessing the Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Hurricane Proxy Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Seaboards, USA

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Assessing the Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Hurricane Proxy Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Seaboards, USA University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 12-2008 Assessing the Tree-ring Oxygen Isotope Hurricane Proxy along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Seaboards, USA Whitney L. Nelson University of Tennessee - Knoxville Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss Part of the Geology Commons Recommended Citation Nelson, Whitney L., "Assessing the Tree-ring Oxygen Isotope Hurricane Proxy along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Seaboards, USA. " PhD diss., University of Tennessee, 2008. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/578 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by Whitney L. Nelson entitled "Assessing the Tree-ring Oxygen Isotope Hurricane Proxy along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Seaboards, USA." I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the equirr ements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Geology. Claudia I. Mora, Henri D. Grissino-Mayer, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Colin D. Sumrall, Christopher M. Fedo Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by Whitney Leigh Nelson entitled “Assessing the Tree-ring Oxygen Isotope Hurricane Proxy along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Seaboards, USA.” I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Geology. Claudia I. Mora Co-Major Professor Henri D. Grissino-Mayer Co-Major Professor We have read this dissertation And recommend its acceptance: Colin D. Sumrall Christopher M. Fedo Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original Signatures on file with student records.) Assessing the Tree-ring Oxygen Isotope Hurricane Proxy Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Seaboards, USA A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Whitney Leigh Nelson December 2008 Dedication The following dissertation is dedicated to the loving memory of my grandfather, Fred Moore, who taught me that the truth always makes a more interesting story. ii Acknowledgments This research was funded by grants from the National Science Foundation (BCS- 0327280) to Drs. Claudia I. Mora and Henri D. Grissino-Mayer, The Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI-CRN 2050) to Dr. Claudia I. Mora, a National Science Foundation grant for GK-12 education (DGE–0538420) to Dr. Sally Horn, the University of Tennessee President’s Initiative for Teaching, Research, and Education, two grants from the Geological Society of America awarded to Whitney Nelson, and the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences. I would like to thank my co-chairs, Drs. Claudia Mora and Henri Grissino-Mayer, who gave me a great opportunity to work across disciplines on a project that was really cool. I owe a debt of gratitude to Drs. Colin Sumrall, Christopher Fedo, and David Finkelstein who helped me well beyond the scope of their duties. For all of his help in the lab, I would like to give special thanks to Dr. Zheng-Hua Li; this research would not have been possible without him. For her moral and mental support I would like to thank Dr. Dana Miller; I certainly wouldn’t have made it this far without her. The wood I used for this project was part of Joe Henderson’s dissertation, so he certainly deserves thanks. Of course, Daniel Lewis dated most of the wood and also helped me tremendously with stats and moral support. My undergraduate lab assistants were awesome, thanks Brooke, Julie, and Megan! I would like to thank my mom, dad, sister, and the rest of my family who have always been there for me. My friends that have been with me from the start, Melissa Hage, Dr. Jonathan Evenick, Dr. Jeffrey (JEFFREEEEEY) Nettles, Dr. Tasha Dunn (TASHAAAAA), Emily Goodman, David Gaines, and Michael DeAngelis, you guys helped me more than you know. I would also like to thank myself, and the cookie monster, me love cookies, nama, nama, nama. iii Abstract A recent increase in hurricane activity has put coastal populations at risk. To better understand hurricane activity, it is necessary to look beyond the modern instrumental record, using proxy records to establish modes of past variability. The utility of a newly developed tree-ring oxygen isotope proxy is further assessed. I present oxygen isotope time series from three sites: Francis Marion and Sandy Island, South Carolina and Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. Proxy results are verified against the instrumental record of hurricane occurrence. The sites record similar percentages (45% for Francis Marion and Sandy Island, 63% for Eglin Air Force Base) of hurricanes that tracked within 200 km of the sites. Potential reasons for missing storms include initial storm water composition, lack of precipitation, or drought. In Florida, a longer record was developed (1710–1950). For the period 1850– 1950, the proxy captured 24% of hurricane events. This decrease is similar to the Valdosta, Georgia study and is attributed to changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. At both sites, during cool phase PDO, the number of storms recorded by the proxy increases, but the percentage of activity recorded decreases. The identification of periods (1710– 1720, 1760–1780, 1810–1830, and 1840–1850) of multiple negative anomalies inferred to be hurricane events at both sites provide evidence for short increases in hurricane activity that match to periods of increased activity in the Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. The data show that hurricane activity fluctuates over time and do not support an increasing trend in hurricane frequency. iv Spectral and wavelet analysis of the oxygen isotope time series from these sites reveal frequencies similar to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation, the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Major shifts in the oxygen isotope data in the 1960s in both Florida and South Carolina are concurrent with climate shifts observed globally that are linked to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and/or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Spectral analysis of the Florida time series also reveals 11 and 22– year cycles that are coincident with sunspot and Hale solar cycles. v Table of Contents 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………. 1 1.1 Dendrochronology……………………………………………………... 4 1.2 Dendrochemistry………………………………………………………. 5 1.3 Hurricane Formation…………………………………………………... 8 1.4 Stable isotopes in meteoric water……………………………………… 11 1.5 The hurricane proxy record in tree-ring oxygen isotopes……………... 12 1.6 Significance of Research………………………………………………. 18 1.7 Hypotheses and Objectives……………………………………………. 19 2. The Portability of the Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Proxy: A Case Study from South Carolina (1940–2000)…………………………………………………... 27 Abstract………………………………………………………………….. 28 2.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………… 29 2.2 Site Descriptions……………………..………………………………….. 33 2.3 Methods………………………………………………………………….. 35 2.4 Results…………………………………………………………………… 38 2.5 Discussion……………………………………………………………….. 51 2.5.1 The tree-ring oxygen isotope proxy compared to the known hurricane record…………………………………………………… 51 2.5.2 Potential effects of pre-existing soil conditions/moisture stress…... 54 2.5.3 False Positives……………………………………………………... 55 2.5.4 “Seasonality” ……………………………………………………… 56 2.6 Conclusions……………………………………………………………… 57 3. A 294-Year Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Record of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Moisture Stress, Florida…………………………………………. 60 Abstract………………………………………………………………….. 61 3.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………… 62 3.1.1 Capturing tropical cyclones in tree-ring α-cellulose………………. 64 3.2 Site Description………………………………………………………….. 66 3.3 Methods………………………………………………………………….. 67 3.4 Results…………………………………………………………………… 71 vi 3.4.1 Modern Verification Period (1940–2004)…………………………. 71 3.4.2 1850–1950………………………….……………………………… 74 3.4.3 1710–1849………………………….……………………………… 74 3.5 Discussion………………………….……………………………………. 74 3.5.1 Instrumental verification of isotope proxy results (1940-2004)…… 74 3.5.2 1850–1950………………………….……………………………… 87 3.5.3 1710–1849………………………….……………………………… 88 3.5.4 Indicators of Moisture Stress………………………………………. 89 3.5.5 “Seasonality” ………………………….…………………………... 90 3.5.6 Comparing Florida to Georgia 1770–1997………………………... 95 3.6 Conclusions………………………….…………………………………... 98 4. Large-Scale Climate Oscillations Recorded in Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotopes in the Southeastern United States: Comparing South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia………………………….………………………………... 102 Abstract………………………….………………………………………. 103 4.1 Introduction………………………….…………………………………... 104 4.1.1 Climate and climate modes in the Southeastern United States and their relationships to tropical cyclone frequency…………….......... 107 4.2 Site Locations……………………….…………………………………… 112 4.3 Methods………………………….……………………………………….
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