Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, February 12

Headlines:  Netanyahu May Meet Obama in March to Ink Aid Deal, Envoy Says  Shin Bet: Terror Attacks Drop Back to Pre-Escalation Level  IDF Requests Command of Beit Horon After Deadly Attack  UN Human Rights Expert Accuses Israel of Excessive Force  IMF: Palestinian Economy Stalled by Slow Aid, Israeli Restrictions  Netanyahu Names Nadav Argaman as Next Shin Bet Chief  Ya’alon Throws Cold Water on Talk of Imminent Israel-Turkey Reconciliation  Major Powers Agree to Seek Syria Ceasefire, Fail to End Russian Airstrikes

Commentary:  Ma’ariv: “Bibi’s World”  By Alon Ben-David, Military Affairs Commentator, Channel 10 Israel  Al-Monitor: “Israeli Minister: After Abbas, There Will Be No More PA”  By Ben Caspit, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts February 12, 2016

Times of Israel Bibi May Meet Obama in March to Ink Aid Deal, Envoy Says U.S. President Barack Obama may sit with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu next month to clinch a massive 10-year aid package, the U.S. envoy to Israel said Thursday. Jerusalem and Washington have been attempting to hammer out details of the military aid deal before the current package of $3 billion annually expires in 2018. The White House reportedly wants to wrap up the deal before Obama leaves office in 11 months, but Netanyahu has intimated he is considering holding out for a better deal with whoever wins the presidency. See also, “Obama, Netanyahu May Agree Defense Deal in Washington Next Month, Envoy Says” (Reuters)

Jerusalem Post Shin Bet: Terror Attacks Drop Back to Pre-Escalation Level The number of terrorist attacks recorded in Israel last month decreased by 32% over December, bringing the total to a level last observed prior to September’s escalation in violence. Shin Bet documented 169 terrorist attacks by Palestinians on Israelis in January, compared to 246 such incidents the previous month, Shin Bet wrote in its monthly report, which published earlier this week. It is the first time since July the number of attacks dropped below the 171 mark observed in August. In September, October, and November, Shin Bet recorded 223, 620 and 326 attacks respectively.

Arutz Sheva IDF Requests Command of Beit Horon After Deadly Attack In the wake of the recent stabbing attack in Beit Horon which claimed the life of 23-year-old Shlomit Krigman, Israel Police and the IDF investigated the circumstances of the attack. In the report which followed the investigation, the IDF proposed it be given authority over security of the town, which is strategically located on Highway 443. The decision however does not belong to the IDF alone, and the police have to sign off on it. The proposal is not only for the town of Beit Horon itself, but for protecting the entire highway which connects Jerusalem to the Modi'in area. The highway has become a terrorist hot spot over the past few months, especially the area between Beit Horon and Jerusalem. Currently, the Border Police have been entrusted with protecting Beit Horon, and are under the authority of the police. The IDF prefers the force to be working under their authority.

Ynet News UN Human Rights Expert Accuses Israel of Excessive Force The UN human rights investigator for Gaza and the West Bank called on Israel on Thursday to investigate what he called excessive force used by Israeli security forces against Palestinians and to prosecute perpetrators. Makarim Wibisono, UN special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories, also challenged Israeli authorities to charge or release all Palestinian prisoners being held under lengthy administrative detention, including children. "The upsurge in violence is a grim reminder of the unsustainable human rights situation in the 'Occupied' Palestinian Territory and the volatile environment it engenders," he said in a final report to the Human Rights Council. 2

Times of Israel IMF: Palestinian Economy Stalled by Israeli Restrictions The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that economic growth for Palestinians in the West Bank slowed to an estimated 2.8% in 2015 and was likely to remain below 3% this year. In a statement concluding a week-long visit to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the IMF said Gaza rebuilding after the destruction of the 2014 summer war with Israel gave some boost to the coastal strip’s economy. But it said that the recovery was “hampered by slow aid disbursements and (Israeli) restrictions on imports of construction materials, and the humanitarian situation remains dire…Unemployment remains stubbornly high in the West Bank and higher still in Gaza, where two-thirds of young people are without a job,” it added. See also, “IMF Says West Bank Economy Dips on Slower Aid, Israel Blockade” (Al Arabiya)

Ynet News Netanyahu Names Nadav Argaman as Next New Shin Bet Chief Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu named deputy Shin Bet security service chief Nadav Argaman as the next Shin Bet head on Thursday. The 55-year-old Argaman, a resident of the central Israeli city of Rosh Ha’ayin, will replace Yoram Cohen in May 2016. Netanyahu praised Argaman, saying that he is confident that the Shin Bet will continue to stregthen itself at the operational and technical level and will continue to protect Israel under Argaman's command. Opposition leader MK Isaac Herzog (Zionist Union) said that "Nadav Argaman is a worthy man with considerable experience in maintaining the security of Israel's citizens, and there's no doubt he will bring this experience to the position of Shin Bet head in a few months." See also, “Nadav Argaman Named New Shin Bet Head” (Ynet News)

Jerusalem Post Ya'alon Throws Cold Water on Israel-Turkey Reconciliation Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon on Thursday appeared to be lowering expectations that Israel and Turkey would soon strike a deal restoring full diplomatic relations. To reporters in Switzerland, Ya’alon said an agreement between the two sides remains elusive so long as Ankara doesn't adequately address Israel's concerns. "Turkey is supporting Hamas, generally speaking. It should be, of course, discussed," Ya'alon said. "I'm not sure we are going to reach a settlement. It may be, but they have to address our conditions for any political settlement in order to overcome this obstacle." See also, "Progress in Israel-Turkey Reconciliation Talks, But No Deal Yet" (BICOM)

Ha’aretz Major Powers Plan Syria Ceasefire, Fail Over Russian Airstrikes Major powers agreed on Friday to a cessation of hostilities in Syria set to begin in a week and to provide rapid humanitarian access to besieged Syrian towns, but failed to secure a complete ceasefire or end to Russian bombing. Following marathon talks in Munich, the US, Russia and over a dozen other nations, reaffirmed commitments to a political transition when conditions on the ground improved. But diplomats cautioned that Russia had until now not demonstrated any interest in seeing President Bashar Assad replaced and was pushing for a military victory. See also, “UAE Special Forces to Deploy in Syria as Russia Warns of World War” (Times of Israel) See also, “World Leaders Announce Syria Ceasefire at Talks in Munich” (BICOM) 3

Ma’ariv – February 12, 2016 Bibi’s World By Alon Ben-David  The gap between the virtual reality fed us by most of the media and politicians and what is actually going on in the world around us has been growing weekly. You read the newspapers and listen to the leaders’ statements and then then you look at what is taking place on the ground and it looks like two worlds that have no connection between them.  I am referring, for example, to the gap between a prime minister who speaks of a million and a half Palestinians who live in Judea and Samaria and the figures provided by the IDF Civil Administration, which counts 2.86 million Arabs there; the gap between the proud reports by Bashar Assad and the Russians about their victories on the battlefield and the fact that they are brutally shelling a civilian population and causing it to flee; the gap between John Kerry, who continues to enjoy his new Iranian partners, and the Islamic Republic, which continues to develop long-range missiles and which releases humiliating pictures of American soldiers for good measure; or the gap between our binary question regarding the tunnels in Gaza—to go in or not to go in—and the fact that there is another option that does not entail sacrificing the lives of dozens of our children on the soil of Gaza.  New York Times reporter Tom Friedman crowned Binyamin Netanyahu this week with the title “the founding father of the binational state.” Netanyahu is doing everything he can to rightfully earn that title, but when he speaks of 1.5 million Palestinians in the West Bank, it is best that he be honest when it comes to the facts. The Civil Administration, the organization that issues identification documents to Palestinians, counts 2.86 million residents. It may be that some residents of East Jerusalem may be included in that number, but even the most modest assessments by anyone who deals with Palestinians in Judea and Samaria do not go below 2.5 million.  Put that number together with 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza and another 1.7 million Arabs in Israel and in East Jerusalem and you will receive an almost equivalent number of Jews and Arabs between Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea. It is just a matter of a few years until equivalency is reached—a figure that should frighten every Zionist and everyone for whom the future of Israel as a Jewish state is important, but instead, we are focusing on the question of whether the Arabic language has a P in it and what that says about the existence of the Palestinian people.  Netanyahu promised to build an “iron wall” for Israel this week, but his virtual iron wall is being crossed nearly every day by Palestinian knife attackers. No iron wall can protect those being stabbed in his binational state. Instead of meeting and discussing separation from the Palestinians, he promises us an ongoing civil war in which Israelis will continue to get stabbed and in which he will continue to speak about the uncompromising need for the Palestinians to recognize Israel as a Jewish state.  In Gaza too, where the excavation of several tunnels into Israeli territory has been completed, adheres to a policy of inaction. The winter rains this year were welcome far as Israel was concerned: at least ten Hamas diggers were buried in the tunnels that collapsed.

 That will not keep Hamas from digging and the hundred excavators searching for the tunnels, as reported by the chief of staff this week, will not discover and will not stop them. Israel is still inferior vis-à-vis the threat of the tunnels and it will, perhaps in the next year, develop the capability of locating them without entering the Gaza Strip. But we are not there yet and anyone who wants to deal with the tunnels now will have to enter Gaza and enter into another war and pay a price with the lives of dozens of more young men.  But while the argument about whether to act against the tunnels here and now is raging around us, no one is listening to the voices coming out of Gaza. Hamas continues to declare that it wants an arrangement and not war and no one has been listening. There is no need for illusions: Hamas was, is and will remain Israel’s bitter enemy. We will yet fight it, but is it urgent to sacrifice the lives of dozens more of young Israelis right now of all times? And for what? To go back to exactly the same place at which we are today: they dig and produce rockets and get ready for another round? If it is possible to put off the next war in Gaza by a few years, then that is the responsible thing to do. Alon Ben-David is a journalist and military affairs commentator for Channel 10 Israel news.

Al-Monitor – February 10, 2016 Israeli Minister: After Abbas, There Will Be No More PA By Ben Caspit  Zeev Elkin, Israel's minister of Jerusalem affairs and immigrant absorption, began his political career in late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s party before deserting Kadima for the Likud in 2008. He is currently a member of the diplomatic-security Cabinet and one of the most incisive thinkers of the Likud and the entire Israeli political system.  Elkin is a close associate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and viewed as one of Netanyahu’s most faithful and effective political operators, though tension has recently been detected between the two. Elkin also enjoys good contacts with Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman, the Israeli right's most uncompromising opposition to the current government.  Elkin was born in Ukraine, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Kharkiv University and then immigrated to Israel in 1990. He earned a master’s degree in Jewish history from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.  As a skilled Israeli politician, Elkin is affiliated with the ideological right, but he is also equipped with an open mind. Elkin holds diverse and sometimes surprising views, but unlike many others he does not hesitate to express his opinions. In an interview with Al- Monitor, Elkin prophesized, “It will not be long until the Palestinian Authority is no longer.”  The rest of the interview follows:  Al-Monitor: Minister Elkin, what do you mean by "not that long," and why are you so sure that the Palestinian Authority will disappear?  Elkin: It could happen in a month or in a year. And I am not referring to the option that President Mahmoud Abbas will retire; enough has already been said about that. I think that the Palestinian Authority will simply cease to exist.  Al-Monitor: How did you reach that conclusion?  Elkin: [Palestine Liberation Organization leader] Yasser Arafat had Abbas, but Abbas does not have an Abbas No. 2. He did not groom a successor, and in my opinion no one can fill his shoes. There is no one we can point to as a sure-fire successor or even a leading candidate for the job. What we are looking at is a personal as well as a social-historical process. We are seeing the total destruction of the Arab world’s hierarchical structure. It began with the phenomenon nicknamed the Arab Spring throughout the Middle East; now it is reaching the Palestinians. For the time being, they are turning their energies against us. That is to be expected. But if they didn't have Israel, they would be working against Abbas.  Al-Monitor: If they are acting against us and not Abbas, then why do you think the Palestinian Authority will disappear?

 Elkin: Because Abbas is 82 years old. He is not so young and not so healthy, and his popularity is in the dumps. It's clear that he is nearing the end of his political career for one reason or another. He can't put the blame on anyone else for that, because he was the one who started saying he’s reached the end of the road and thought out loud about retiring. After all his threats about retiring, he created a buzz on the subject and now people expect it to take place at some point. The problem is that he will leave a vacuum, which will breed chaos. If he had a clear, obvious successor, it would be a different story altogether. But there is no one.  Al-Monitor: So what will the day-after-Abbas scenario look like, in your opinion?  Elkin: Unfortunately, it will look bad. There are many destructive forces that will circulate on the ground with very harsh ramifications in the short term. Securitywise it will be very challenging, mainly with regard to the Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria. Unfortunately we are ignoring this possibility, not preparing for it, unwilling to accept the reality and refusing to read the writing on the wall. We aren’t internalizing it; we just keep hoping that what we want to happen will come to pass. But life isn’t always like that.  Al-Monitor: Nevertheless, something has to happen after Abbas is gone. What will the territory look like then?  Elkin: I reckon that there will be a form of anarchy and power struggles between different gangs. Local militias will form. This can go on for a long time, but meanwhile, governability will weaken greatly and the central government will crumble. That will be very dangerous.  Al-Monitor: Do you think there’s a chance that Hamas will seize control over the West Bank, as it did in Gaza?  Elkin: Yes. But that’s one thing that Israel can’t accept. We won’t allow a Hamastan to rise in Judea and Samaria under any circumstances.  Al-Monitor: Is this scenario certain, in your opinion?  Elkin: Nothing is certain in the Middle East, but I feel that the odds are very low that the Palestinian Authority, as we know it today, will survive over time. Its demise can take place in another year; it can also happen later on, but ultimately it will come to pass. This will have many repercussions, and Israel must begin to prepare for them.  Al-Monitor: What turns you into such a pessimist on this specific issue?  Elkin: We tend to believe that what was true in the past will hold true in the future. It is the human inclination to view ongoing situations as eternal, and then at the end we are caught by surprise. I am a "graduate" of the dismantling of the Soviet Union, and I was traumatized by that. At the time, it also seemed to us that the "Soviet Empire" was something stable and perpetual, but then it became clear to us that it was brittle, fragile and fleeting. The condition of the Palestinian Authority is far worse than that of the Soviet Union on the eve of its collapse.  Al-Monitor: Earlier, you talked about security-related challenges. What did you mean by that?

 Elkin: Our entire discourse on the subject of terror must change. This structure that we’ve become accustomed to — of the organized security apparatus in the Palestinian Authority, of one law system and one set of weapons — all this can go up in smoke. I compare the situation to a pressure cooker filled with water that reaches the boiling point. We try to deal with the scalding water that boils over by placing a cover over the pot, but that won’t help. Instead, we need to turn down or extinguish the fire. That is a simple law of physics.  Al-Monitor: How can that be done?  Elkin: Regrettably, it can’t be done now. We are looking at a regional phenomenon that is crushing the entire Middle East and is not skipping over us. We cannot turn the clock back and make Abbas 30 years younger, and we cannot invent a successor to our liking. It doesn’t work that way. Almost all the regimes in the Arab world are feeling the frustration and fury of their citizens, mainly the youths. In the Palestinian Authority, parts of this frustration and fury are directed at Israel, and from this point of view we are an asset for Abbas and we are saving him. But as I said before, this won’t go on for long. Ultimately, he will also pay the price.  Al-Monitor: So what should we do now?  Elkin: We should be making preparations. Sadly, we and the Americans are currently working with the idea that it will survive forever, and we are focusing our efforts on resuscitating a dying body. We have to change our tactics and internalize the fact that an era is coming to an end. We have to ask ourselves: How will we live and function on the day after, in the new period? I admit that there’s a chance it won’t happen, but the odds are very high. We need to have a plan, and at the moment we don’t have any at all. Ben Caspit is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse. He is also a senior columnist and political analyst for Israeli newspapers, and has a daily radio show and regular TV shows on politics and Israel.