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Home , Jibril Rajoub, Jonathan Schanzer, Nadav Argaman, Palestinian nationalism

Selected articles concerning , published weekly by Suburban Orthodox Toras Chaim’s (Baltimore) Israel Action Committee Edited by Jerry Appelbaum ( [email protected] ) | Founding editor: Sheldon J. Berman Z”L

Issue 8 44 Volume 2 1 , Number 1 5 Parshias Tazria - Metzora | 20th Day Omer April 1 7 , 20 2 1

The Palestinian Authority Careens toward Its Next Political Crisis By Jonathan Schanzer foreignpolicy.com April 9, 2 021 The electoral odds favor . term 12 additional years. He ostensibly did so to prevent Palestinian legislative elections are scheduled for May the rise of Ham as. It was no surprise that Hamas 22. Whether or not the vote takes place, finally scheduling welcomed his announcement. The group called for fair elec tions was nothing short of remarkable. Palestinian elections for to “express their will without politics has been in gridlock, with elections suspended restrictions or pressures.” since the terrorist group Hamas won a parliamentary As election plans took shape, Abbas issued a direct majority in 2006. The stalemate gave way to civil war in challenge to Israel: He insiste d elections could not happen 2007, during which Hamas conquered the G aza Strip and without the Arab residents of East , which Israel the Liberation Organization clung to power in considers a part of its capital, taking part. “We are very the . Since then, a bitter division between the interested in having elections but not at any price,” Abbas two has ensued. said. The Palestinian Authority followed up with a formal Palestinians deserve to shape their own political request to Israel. destiny, but elections could come at a price. Polls suggest The issue of Jerusalem appeared to set the stage for a that Hamas could emerge as the strongest party once showdown. While the indicated that “no decision again. More gridlock, dysfunction, and strife could follow. has been taken” on the issue, the Palestinian Authority The Palestinians have had ample time to address this engaged in an aggressive messaging campaign during problem. It has been almost a decade and a half since the which Mut asem Tayem, director - general of the Palestinian last vote. B ut the political system is dominated in the West Authority’s Jerusalem Unit, said Arab residents with Bank by one man, , and one party, , Israeli - issued identification cards must be able to vote whereas in Gaza, it is dominated by one party, Hamas. “despite all Israeli measures aiming to prevent them from Having failed to retool their system, the Palestinians are participating.” now careening toward another political c risis. Israeli officials say th e Netanyahu government decided Inexplicably, international stakeholders are watching it would not be drawn into the Palestinian election debate. the sudden return of Palestinian politics from the sidelines. For one, both sides have found workarounds in the past. The saga began in September 2020 in the wake of the More to the point, officials in Jerusalem viewed Abbas as Abraham Accords — normalization agreements between daring Israel to bar polling stations in East Jerus alem. Israel, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. The peace Were that to happen, the Palestinians would cancel deal was a wake - up call to Palestinians that they were elections citing Israeli intransigence. The Israelis, who were losing traction among Arab states that historically gearing up for their own March election, did not like the championed their cause. Hamas and Fatah met in Istanbul, optics. In particular, Netanyahu did not want the Turkey, for a dialogue that few, if any, believed would yield Palestinians or their electi ons to be an Israeli election issue, a pol itical breakthrough. After all, the two sides had met not least because he was campaigning for support among and failed to agree many times before. The Egyptians, Israel’s Arab parties. To Netanyahu’s benefit, the peace Saudis, Turks, Russians, and others had all tried brokering process has been a minor issue in all four Israeli election agreements and had all failed. campaigns over the last two years. Remarkably, on Sept. 24, 2020, the two sides emerged Israel thus opted for a policy of silence. Israelis would alig ned. “We have agreed to first hold legislative elections, table their own concerns until after their March 23 then presidential elections of the Palestinian Authority, and elections. As one senior Israeli official, speaking on the finally the central council of the Palestine Liberation condition of anonymity, said, “the Palestinians would have Organization,” said Jibril Rajoub, a senior Fatah official. to continue waiting for a savior to blam e.” The official Using the past as a guide, the likelihood the two sides seemed to suggest the Palestinian leadership did not would follow through on their agreement was decidedly actually want the vote to take place. low. But once again, the Palestinians surprised. On Jan. 15, And for good reason. September 2020 opinion polls Abbas announced that Palestinian Authority legislative indicated that Hamas leader would beat elections would take place on May 22 and president ial Abbas 52 percent to 39 percent in a head - to - head contest. elections on July 31. If convicted terrorist ran, he was slated Abbas’ announcement was nothing short of to win 55 percent of the vote. In parliamentary elections, remarkable. The aging politician has an iron grip on power Fatah would receive 38 percent of the vote and Hamas 34 after winning a four - year term in 2005 and extending his percent — a very tight race. Focus o n Israel April 17, 2021 Page 2

The polling picture in December 2020 didn ’t improve One country that may be eager to see elections is the for Fatah. The parliamentary split between Fatah and United Arab Emirates. , the former Hamas was identical. But Abbas was losing ground to security chief and a rival of Abba s, has lived in Barghouti and was still projected to lose to Haniyeh. Even exile in the UAE since 2011 and apparently wants to worse for Abbas was that 66 percent of respondents reenter Palestinian politics. He has no plans to run in the demanded the ailing octogenari an’s resignation. legislative elections but is clearly eyeing the presidency. As The international response was uneasy silence. Rather the Times of Israel noted: “With Abu Dhabi’s backing, than addressing the looming challenge of terrorist Dahlan’s mo vement has quietly funded aid projects in the participation in the Palestinian election, the Biden Gaza Strip and in over the past several administration prioritized allocating additional funds to the years.” In fact, Dahlan delivered 60,000 doses of COVID - Palestinian Authority. In March and April, Washington 19 vaccines, donated by the UAE to Gaza, amid rumors he announced plans to provide $15 million in COVID - 19 would run. Dahlan’s polling numbers have no t been support, $10 million in “peace - building” programs, and strong, but he could still have an impact — particularly if $75 million in other indirect assistance. A leaked four - page his candidacy erodes support for Abbas. memo expresses a desire to reestablish ties with the Dahlan is, in many ways, overshadowed by Barghouti, Palestinian Author ity (after former U.S. President Donald currently serving multiple life sentences in Israel for acts of Trump curtailed them) while only articulating “concern” committed under his comma nd during the that Hamas could beat Fatah in the forthcoming elections. in the early 2000s. Many Palestinians liken News reports swirled. One Israeli news outlet reported him to activist Nelson Mandela, who emerged from a that U.S. President Joe Biden had pushed the Pa lestinian terrorism - related prison sentence to lead a liberated South Authority to proceed with elections “to renew the Africa. Mandela, of course, never directly engaged in legitimacy in the Palestinian Authority.” The London - violence. Neverth eless, Barghouti continues to put up based newspaper Asharq al - Awsat wrote the Biden strong numbers in the polls. His associates are reportedly administration asked Abbas for “clarifications on the taking steps that continue to indicate his intention of partnership with Hamas in the upco ming elections.” running for president on a list separate from Fatah. Indeed, reports suggest the Hamas slate of candidates There has been an eerie quiet from otherwise include current inmates in Israeli jails as well as a terrorist vocife rous U.S. nongovernmental organizations promoting commander. abroad. Opinion polls indicated that Hamas leader Ismail Another candidate to emerge is former Fatah Central Haniyeh would beat Abbas 52 percent to 39 percent in a Committee member Nasser al - Qudwa, who on Twitter head - t o - head contest. declared his intention “of forming an electoral slate within One Palestinian outlet claimed the United States asked the framework of a broad d emocratic forum that includes Abbas to postpone or cancel the elections, which Abbas various segments of society, not the Fatah movement allegedly rejected. However, Israeli and Palestinian officials alone.” For this statement, Abbas expelled him from the both candidly say the White House has given a green light. Fatah party last month. Undeterred, Qudwa and his U.S. off icials say they will not interfere, and they have little supporters founded a new electoral slate — the Palestinian right to make demands after some of the United States’ National De mocratic Forum — and even invited Barghouti own recent political woes. This is somewhat awkward in to join it, potentially forming a formidable joint list. light of the fact that Biden, while serving as a U.S. senator, Qudwa called for Palestinians to find “a third path” spearheaded the Palestinia n Anti - Terrorism Act of 2006, between “armed struggle or negotiations with unending which prohibits U.S. assistance if the Palestinian Authority concessions.” is “effectively controlled by Hamas.” The mention of a “third path” is a c lear nod to former and , both traditional Palestinian allies Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who ran under that oppose the (of which Hamas is the banner of the “Third Way” in 2006. Fayyad, who a splinter faction) , were also relatively quiet. Qatar - based currently teaches at Princeton University, announced he Al Jazeera noted that “uncertainty about the readiness of also plans to run in the coming elections. He declared his the Fatah movement for the elections has raised concern bloc would be co mprised of “independent personalities” in Egypt and Jordan.” The network also reported that that would campaign with “transparency and honor.” Egyptian and Jordanian intelligence chiefs Abba s Kamel The field is shaping up, and Palestinians are registering and Ahmad Husni met with Abbas in , Palestine, to vote — 93 percent of eligible voters so far. Cautiously, and “urged him to unify Fatah on the eve of the elections long - time observers of Palestinian politics who ha ve had and to participate in a unified list to reduce the chances of little to write about for many years are starting to weigh in Hamas winning it.” Officially, however, both countries again. The consensus is it may now be too late to cancel issued statements supporting elections, even if they were legislative elections. But cynicism abounds on whether “still not convinced that the elections will actually take Abbas will subsequently allow for presidential elections. place.” He has, after all , reigned 12 years beyond what his four - Page 3 April 17, 2021 Focus on Israel

year term allowed. He is a veritable for Abbas to postpone. strongman. The rest of the Middle East is now watching Now what? Lingering uncertainty, punctuated by the nervously, bracing for yet another power struggle between lack of a strong U.S. position, has yielded an eerie quiet extremists and a strongman. from otherwise vociferous U.S. nongovernmental With no restrictions on Hamas’ participation and as organizations promoting democracy abroad. One advisor Abbas’ polling numbers flatline, the Palestinian Authority to Palestinian reform candidates says the Europeans have looks likely to be heading for a repeat of 2006. That said, a filled the void. According to the Associated Press, recent change in the Palestinian election law stipulating Palestinian election officials invited the European Union proportional representation in parliament will make to send monitors in January. But t he EU says Israel has outright control more difficult for one party. But a not responded to a request made in February for an Pale stinian Authority significantly influenced by Hamas is exploratory delegation. not just possible; it’s probable. After their own March 23 elections, the Israelis finally Right now, the Biden administration appears content began to voice their concerns. Nadav Argaman, head of to let elections proceed without preconditions. Israeli Israel’s internal security services , vi sited Maj. concerns, even if more emphatically voiced, will yield litt le Gen. Majed Faraj, the head of the Palestinian Authority’s without U.S. backing. The rest of the Middle East is now security services in an effort to postpone the election. watching nervously, bracing for yet another power struggle Argaman also met with Abbas and delivered the same between extremists and a strongman. message, only to be rebuffed by the Palestinian president But the blame belongs to Abbas. In his 16 years of (who told him “you bu ilt Hamas”). The Israel Defense absolute power, he has barred political challenger s and Forces’ outgoing military liaison to the Palestinians also shut down political debate. If Palestinian elections are held, issued a rare public warning, saying Israel should be they will occur in a political vacuum. The alternative was a prepared to halt all security coordination with the patient process of institution - building along the lines of Palestinians if Hamas wins the election. what Fayyad advocated as prime minister. As he knew The senior Israeli official suggested the Palestinians well, democracy is a system of governance that cannot be still have one opportunity to “climb down from the tree.” built on voting alone. Rather, it must be built on parties, They could postpone the election by citing legitimate structures, and the rigorous debate of ideas. concerns about COVID - 19. Polling stations without That’s not possible this time around. But Abbas could proper public health procedures could further strain West still postpone the elections or work with other partie s to Bank hospitals, which were at 115 percent capacity in restrict terrorist participation. Should he reject both of March, according to the World Health Organization. Gaza these paths, a new Palestinian political crisis is slated to infections have been surprisingly manageable, but overall begin on May 22. Palestinian vaccination numbers are low. For now, Mr. Schanzer is the senior vice president for research at the however, these concerns have not been compelling enough Foundation for Defense of .

Israel’s (Unc onfirmed) Strike on Iran Strengthens America’s Negotiation Position By Lahav Harkov jpost.com April 12, 2021 Taking Natanz off the table. The mo ral of the story is supposed to be to appreciate There’s a negotiating strategy used in the Knesset what you have because it could always be worse. during budget debates called “the goat,” which the Iranian But in Israeli budget negotiations, “the goat” regime s eems to be very familiar with – though they represents a tactic of adding more and more demands so probably have another name for it. that when you remove them, you look like you’re making It’s been a few years since there was a real budget co ncessions to get what you actually wanted in the first debate in Israel, so here’s a reminder of what “the goat” place. means: There’s a Jewish folktale about a man who That is exactly what Iran seemed to be doing over the complained to the rabbi that his family was too cramped in weekend. their tiny one - room shack. On Friday, the US and Iran continued indirect The rabbi told the man to bring his chicken into the negotiations for their return to the Iran deal. Though some house. The man went back to the rabbi and said they feel of the other parties to t he Iran deal expressed optimism even more cramped. The rabbi told the man to bring his that an agreement can be reached, Iran maintained its goat into the house. Th e man went back to the rabbi and stance that all post - 2015 sanctions be removed before it said the house is now so cramped, they cannot live in it for takes any steps to return to compliance with the deal’s one more day. nuclear limitations. Soon after, a senior US State The rabbi told the man to put the chicken and goat Depart ment official said if Iran doesn’t budge, then the outside. The man went back to the rabbi and said he now sides will reach an impasse. feels like he has plenty of space. The next day, Iran further breached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action by launching advanced Focus o n Israel April 17, 2021 Page 4

uranium enrichment machines at the underground nuclear t o recover from recent “incidents,” such as a July 2020 facility in Natanz. explosion that set back its nuclear program. This seems like it was a gambit by Iran to have a Iran, of course, claims its nuclear program is for longer list of items that it can scale back from in peaceful purposes. But its adversaries in the region and negotiations, while still ending up closer to a nuclear bomb beyond are hard - pressed to believe the ayatollah s’ regime than the JCPOA originally allowed for it to reach. in light of its aggression across the Middle East and its Then, less than a day later, there was a m ysterious calls to wipe Israel off the map. Those are the legitimate power outage in Natanz that derailed the whole thing. defensive aims of a possible attack on the uranium Though Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization enrichment machines in Natanz. confirmed that an “accident” occurred at the facility, there Israel and others in the region, as well, certa inly have was no official acknowledgment of foul play. Still, some been eyeing the talks in Vienna with concern that the US Iranian lawmakers have blamed it on “sabotage” and and Iran may truly return to the 2015 nuclear deal, which “infiltration,” Iranian journalist Abas Aslani tweeted on would lift nuclear limitations on Tehran in 2030, and not Sunday. make it “longer and stronger” as Washington has promised There are indications that the disruptions in Natanz it would. were the result of a cyberattack, and – as always – all eyes Now, w hen it comes to nuclear negotiations, it looks are on Israel when these things happen. And Iran has yet like someone got Iran’s goat. . Israel’s Naval Shadow War with Iran Comes Out into the Open By Ron Ben Yishai ynetnews.com April 7, 2021 Stopping the smuggling of arms — and sending a Iranian - backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and preventing message to Washington. humanitarian aid from reaching them. The tal ks in Vienna that began Tuesday on the U.S. It largely remains off the Yemeni coast, some 1,600 return to the Iran nuclear agreement are directly connected kilomet ers (994 miles) south of Israel. to the same day attack on an Iranian vessel in the Red Sea The Saviz suffered serious damage in Tuesday's attack, that has been attributed to Israel. far more than was caused in other attacks on Iranian Both Tehran and Jerusalem are signaling to vessels attributed to Israel as they transported oil and arms Washington tha t the Middle East must be higher up on to both Syrian and . U.S. President Joe Biden's list of priorities and that if The damage to the Saviz w as below water level, briefly untreated, the conflict between Israel and Iran could preventing it from moving, but not sinking it. escalate to all - out war. It is probable that the damage requires the ship to be The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Wednesday towed for repairs to a port big enough to accommodate it, confirmed that the vessel had been at tacked and "caused most likely in Iran. And weeks if not months will pass minor damage with no casualties." An investigation is before su ch an operation can take place. underway, it said. The attack marks an escalation in the ongoing covert The vessel that was hit, the Saviz, is actually a floating war being waged at sea between Israel and Iran. naval base for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in The aim of the attack was threefold: the Red Sea, off the coasts of Yemen and Djibouti - 1. To retaliate for an Iranian attack on an Israeli - whatever Iran says to the contrary. owned cargo ship in the Arabian Sea last month. Tasnim, the Iranian news agency linked to the 2. To show the Iranians that Israel has the upper hand Revolutionary Guard, said Tuesday that the Saviz was in the waters of the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, and there to "support Iranian commandos sent on commercial that Tehran would be wise to refrain from efforts to attack vessel (anti - piracy) escort missions." its navy or Israeli - owned vessels anywhere near their Saviz was actually in t he area to protect Iranian ships shores, includi ng in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman in the Red Sea and to grant fast - moving Revolutionary and the Arabian Sea. Iran must also end efforts to smuggle Guard commando boats the freedom of movement to oil and arms to and Lebanon. carry out objectives in line with Tehran's interests. 3. To clarify to the United States that Israel will These boats are kept onboard the Saviz for use by the continue its relentless fight against Iran's subversive commando forc es who protect Iranian oil tankers and actions in t he region, whether it is in Syria, Lebanon, vessels smuggling weapons as they make their way to Syria and Yemen, even if the U.S. is attempting to rebuild and Lebanon through the Suez Canal, whilst mindful of relations with the Islamic Republic. Israeli forces in the area. Israel has come to understand that Washington is Pictures of the boats onboard the Saviz appeared in hoping to de - escalate their conflict with Iran at almost any the Israeli media. cost so that the administration can focus its attention on The v essel also acts as an intelligence base, monitoring the coronavirus pandemic, infrastructure and adversarial Saudi vessels that are enforcing a maritime embargo on relations with China and Russia. Page 5 April 17, 2021 Focus on Israel

The Iranian nuclear program is a nuisance to the attempting to produce nuclear weapons at the moment but Americans. Biden has committed to preventing a nuclear do want to be a nuclear threshold state. The Vienna talks, Iran and his administration is concerned that if Tehran which are expected to last a few mo nths, will help them continues to develop its atomic capabilities, Israel might with this goal. launch a strike against it. This would certainly lead to a war Israel wants to stop the Iranians from fulfilling their that the U.S. would be dragged into it whether it likes it or plan, but is facing serious obstacles. not. The current government has little to no sway over To avoid this, the a dministration is prepared to make Washington's foreign policy decisions and officials in significant concessions to the Iranians in order to entice Jerusalem are watch ing with concern as America appears them back to the negotiating table and abiding by the ready to be humiliated by Iran as long as it returns to the nuclear deal that former president Donald Trump walked 2015 agreement. away from in 2018. Even it could affect the Vienna talks, Israel and the Diplomats of the EU, China, Russia and Iran at the U.S. must be on the same page about the next diplomatic start of talks on a U.S. return to the 2015 nuclear deal, at steps should Iran keep pushing a head with its nuclear the Grand Hotel in Vienna program. But such discussions have not even begun. Diplomats of the EU, China, Russia and Iran at the Meanwhile, Iran's economy has rebounded thanks to start of talks on a U.S. return to the 2015 nuclear deal, at covert oil sales to China and Russia and its leaders no the Grand Hotel in Vienna (Photo: AFP) longer fear the sanctions imposed on the country. Officials in Israel are concerned. The country's In fact, Iran inches closer every day to becoming a intelligence agencies observed that the Iranians are not nuclear threshold state.

Unrest in Jordan Should Be a Wake - Up Call to Israel and the U.S. By Hussein Ibish bloomberg.com April 7, 2021 A fragile, but essential kingdom. . are deeply enmeshed in the Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia A pledge by Prince Hamza to put himself “at the has also become one of the usual suspects for unexplained disposal” of Ki ng Abdullah II, his half - brother, appears to developments and one of Hamzah’s arrested assoc iates is a have resolved the feud within the Jordanian royal family Saudi. that erupted at the end of last week. But the kingdom’s But Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other most serious crisis in decades was as a salutary reminder of Gulf monarchies were quick to issue statements of strong both the importance and the precariou sness of Jordan’s support for Abdullah. Israeli Defense Minister Benny stabilizing role in the Middle East. Gantz offered help with what he described as “an internal The events of the weekend remain murky and may Jordanian issue.” And the Biden administration reaffirmed never be fully disclosed. The kingdom has banned the American backing for the king, describing him as “a key publication of “anything related to the investigations,” partner.” which suggests the palace is keen to draw a line under the But the coup against Abdullah — if that is indeed affair. what it was — failed, it nonetheless brought royal tensions But the roots of the royal ructions can be traced back into the open, breaking with the Hashem ite clan’s tradition to 2004, when the king removed Hamza as crown prince, of dealing privately with internal dissent. Plainly, all is not as a prelude to giving the title to his own son, Hussein. well in the kingdom as it prepares to celebrate its centenary This was not unusual for Jordan — Abdullah’s father had this coming Sunday. The U.S. nonprofit Freedom House made a sim ilar switch in the succession on his death - bed recently downgraded Jordan from “partly free” to “not — and Hamzah seemed to accept his demotion with fr ee” in its annual assessment of the state of democracy equanimity. worldwide. The report cited “harsh new restrictions on But in recent months, he is reported to grown strident freedom of assembly, a crackdown on the teachers union in his criticism of corruption that he linked to his half - [and] a lack of adequate preparations that harmed the brother’s reign. Perhaps more alarmi ng for the palace, he is quality of parliamentary elections du ring the covid - 19 thought to have reached out to powerful tribal leaders, pandemic.” whose support is crucial for the monarchy and has been The 100 - year - old monarchy faces serious challenges at the bedrock of its power for almost a hundred years. home and abroad. The Jordanian government’s Still, it came as shock to Jordanians when Hamzah mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic has deepened released a video saying he was under house arrest. Several the longstanding public dissatisfaction over endemic of his associates had been arrested, and government corruption and general economic malaise. By casting statements suggested there had been an attempted coup, himself as a crusader against corruption, Hamzah might with foreign connivance. have scored powerful points against the status quo This set off inevitable speculation that Israel or Saudi represented by his half - brother. Arabia had been involved. Israel is frequently blamed for On the foreign - policy front, Jordan has long felt taken mysterious unrest in Arab countries, especially those that for granted by the U.S., Israel and Gulf Arab countries, all Focus o n Israel April 17, 2021 Page 6

of which rely on the kingdom to play a quiet but essential Palestinians, Iraq or Syria. They also rely on Jordanian regional role. The resentment in Amman deepened during intelligence services in the fight against terrorism and the administration of President Donald Trump, when extremism. Washington seemed to go along with Israeli plans to annex So the specter of instability in Amman should ha ve set larg e swathes of the West Bank. Jordanians regard off alarms in capitals across the Middle East, and in annexation with existential dread because it could export Washington. A collapse of order could easily turn much of Palestinian into the kingdom, given that over Jordan into a facsimile of parts of Iraq and Syria just over half its population is made up of Palestinians displaced by the border, with militias, ISIS - like terrorist groups, tribal Israel in the 1948 and 1967 wars. warlords and o ther forces battling it out in a situation of More generally, Jordanians feel they are punished for protracted chaos. The Hamzah affair is a useful reminder the relative stability of their country in a restive region, the of how much all the other parties stand to lose if, like non - squeaking wheel that doesn’t get much grease. The many of its neighbors, Jordan begins to fall apart. consequences of instability in its neighborhood are often The government’s success in reining in Princ e visited upon the kingdom, most obviously in the form of Hamzah may in the short run strengthen the king’s hand refugees, whether from Iraq in the aftermath of the 2003 and undermine oppositional activities. The challenge for U.S. - led invasion or from Syria after the rise of the Islamic Jordan’s allies is to preserve the stability of the monarchy State and the subsequent civil war. while pressing the palace for the political, institutional and For the West, Israel and Gulf Arab states, the economic reforms n ecessary to prevent a repeat of last Jordanian government is an important contributor to weekend’s events. political and diplomatic initiatives, whether on the Visit suburbanorthodox.org for the current issue .

Negotiations with Iran Could Easily Lead to a Worse Deal Than Was Secured in 2015 By Noah Rothman commentarymagazine.com April 07, 2021 The pursuit of the elusive Iranian moderates Department Spokesman Ned Price told reporters. “I don’t continues. think anyone is under the impression that tha t would be a Iran and the United States are back at the nuclear viable proposal.” Good. Maximalist demands should be negotiating table. Talks have so far been described as ruled out. But no one said anything about minimalist “constructive,” which translates from Diplomatese to demands. English as “fruitless.” Seeing as these negotiations are The United States will have an easier time making the being conducted by European intermediaries who li terally first overture by easing any one of the suite of sanctions shuttle themselves from the hotel where the Iranian currently targe ting vital sectors of the Iranian economy, delegation is situated to another where the Americans are the Iranian regime, or the designated terrorist actors under lodged, it would be a miracle if a breakthrough were Tehran’s control. What’s more, the United States appears reached. to have imposed on itself a short window to secure It isn’t just the protocols that represent an obstacle to something resembling a deal, making it the p arty most progress, but the gaping chasm between the parties’ likely to blink first. negotiating positions that is unlikely to be bridged. The “The talks are taking place ahead of an Iranian United States maintains that Iran must take some concrete presidential election in June, in which incumbent Hassan steps toward complying with the original accords before it Rouhani cannot run again,” Politico Europe reported. “A budges. Presumably, that would entail reduction s in Iran’s more hardline leader would make progress on the stockpile of enriched uranium or the mothballing of its diplomatic fro nt more difficult.” Raising the specter of enrichment capacity. Iranian negotiators insist that they Iranian hardliners, who are forever waiting in the wings to need to see each and every Trump - era sanction on the sabotage progress, is an eerie echo of the kind of moral Islamic Republic lifted before they reciprocate. Iranian blackmail deployed so often against the Deputy Foreign Minis ter and lead negotiator Abbas JCPOA’s critics. And while Special Envoy Ro bert Malley Araghchi told Iranian PressTV that he would not accept a told reporters that the U.S. would “negotiate with whoever “step - by - step plan.” For Tehran, it’s all or nothing. is in power in Iran” and the Iranian political calendar To their credit, American negotiators still nominally cannot “dictate our pace,” nor could the U.S. afford to adhered to Joe Biden’s campaign - trail pledge to seek a “ignore the reality of an election.” better , more comprehensive deal than 2015’s Joint Malley’s ambiguity is not reflected in the pro - deal Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). That implicit press, which is eager to see negotiations produce some sort admission that the original Iran nuclear deal was of framework ahead of Iranian elections. “Improved insufficient is welcome, but the administration is relations with the west might boost turnout among an handicapping itself if it’s looking for a better deal. Iranian public worn down by sanctions and a resurgent “I t hink what we can essentially rule out are the Covid outbreak,” the G uardian reported, “so could help maximalist demands that the United States do everything reformists who had supported the deal only to have their first and only, in turn, would Iran then act,” State Page 7 April 17, 2021 Focus on Israel

political ground undercut by Trump’s actions.” This, too, Iranian moderates — a presupposition that has time and is a familiar refrain. again proven flawed. The JCPOA was said in 2015 to have greatly But that seems to be the belief to which the Biden empowered the reform wing of the Iranian t heocracy, administration and its negotiators adhere. If so, they could which Rouhani helmed. But what did we witness in the convince themselves that they’re better served chasing an immediate aftermath of the Iran deal’s implementation? accord, any accord, at the possible expense of its terms. Iran - sponsored sectarian attacks in Iraq; the material and And the results of such a fl awed approach are predictable. political support for a genocidal regime in Syria; weapons For all their talk of a better deal, we will likely end up with funneled to Houthis in Yemen; political instability in something even worse. Lebanon and Bahrain sponsored by Tehran; and a vicious Update: The United States blinked first. As a gesture crackdown on political demonstrators inside Iran. All of aimed at breaking the logjam, Reuters reports that the this occurred before Donald Trump effectively abrogated Biden administration is prepar ed to lift sanctions on Iran the JCPOA in May 2018, after which Iranian provocatio ns that are “inconsistent with the 2015 pact.” We will see if only became more reckless and provocative. Iran reciprocates. The idea that a nuclear accord with the West Mr. Rothman is the Associate Editor of Commentary and the empowers Iran’s moderates presumes the existence of author of Unjust: Social Justice and the Unmaking of America.

No Longer the Sole Province o f Israel and the U.S., Drones Are Revolutionizing Aerial Warfare By americanpurpose.com April 5, 2021 Starting in the Middle East. drone was driven by the U.S. military embargo in 1975, Back in the early 2010s when I first started playing and Washington’s reluctance to sell the country its with drones, I speculated in the FT that if I could own a advanced Predator and Reaper drones. Turkey bought drone, anyone could, and that this would have big Heron drones from Israel, but found that relationship implications for global politics. At that time, drone problematic as well. Drones are, however, not that hard to technology was largely manufacture, and the most controlled by the U.S. and recent Turkish ones are quite Israel, but I noted that it was impressive. The TB2 can stay inevitable that it would spread aloft for 24 hours, and can widely and change the nature perform both reconnaissance of int erstate conflict. The and attack missions. specific use I imagined was for The effectiveness of these targeted assassinations, and weapons was first Henry Sokolski recently demonstrated beyond speculated in these pages that Turkey’s borders in Syria in they could be used against March 2020, where in critical infrastructure like retaliation for a Russian - nuclear power plants. Neither backed Syrian attack that of these threats has emerged killed 36 Turkish soldiers, big time as of yet, but the Ankara launched a devastating global landscape has already attack on Syrian armored been changed by military drones. forces that were moving into Idlib province along the The main actor in this development is Turkey under Turkish border. Video footage showed them destroying its autocratic president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The one Syrian armored vehicle after another, including more country has developed its own domestic drones and has than 100 tanks, armored per sonnel carriers, and air defense used them to devastating effect in several recent military systems. conflicts: Libya, Syria, in the Nagorno - Karabakh war The Syrian offensive was brought to a complete halt, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and in the fight against and Idlib province secured as a haven for refugees. Then the PKK inside its own borders. In the process, it has in May, Turkish drones were used to attack an air base in elevated itself to being a major regional pow er broker with Libya used by UAE - backed Libyan National Army of more ability to shape outcomes than Russia, China, or the General Khalifa Haftar, which ended the LNA’s offensive United States. against Tripoli. Finally, during the Nagorno - Karabakh war Turkish drones like the Anka - S were developed by the in September, Turkish drones intervening for Azerbaijan Turkish aerospace industries firm TUSAS, while the against Armenia destroyed an estimated 200 tanks, 90 Bayraktar TB2 was developed by the defense industry firm other armored vehicles, and 18 2 artillery pieces, forcing the Baykar Makina, led by MIT - educated drone designer latter to withdraw from the territory. This has become a Selçuk Bayraktar, who was to later marry Erdogan’s point of nationalist pride in Turkey, as this pro - Azeri video daughter. The impetus to create a domestically - produced suggests. Focus o n Israel April 17, 2021 Page 8 It seems to me that Turkey’s use of drones is going to promises to do more of the same. The Middle East, which change the nature of land power in ways that will looked like it was being polarized along Sunni - Shia lines undermine existing force structures, in the way that the led by the two primary antagonists Saudi Arabia and Iran, Dreadnaught obsoleted earlier classes of battleships, or the is in fact more genuinely multipolar. Turkey has not aircraft carrier made battleships themselves obsolete at the aligned itself permanently with anyone. It has opposed its beginning of World War II. Combined arms land forces of fellow Sunni powers, the Gulf States, in Libya; the sort th at defeated Iraq twice in the 1991 and 2003 Gulf simultaneously sided with Russia by buying the latter’s S - Wars are built around tanks, whose primacy was due to the 400 air defense system while attacking Russian forces in fact that for many years, only a tank could destroy another Syria; and has refused to align its aims w ith Washington tank. One of the little - known facts about the 1967 Middle despite its continuing membership in NATO. Yet it has East War was that only a couple of Egyptian tanks were also sold TB2 drones to Ukraine, which might help killed from the air in Israel’s massive opening air strike, unfreeze that conflict. because it was too difficult to hit so small a target with an This has had some good consequences. Turkey’s airplane. In the intervening years, precision - guided intervention in Syria defeated what would have been a munitions began to proliferate, making the targeting of genocidal act against the refugees who had sought shelter t anks much easier, but they still required expensive in Idlib province. Had Assad succeeded in retaking the platforms like the A - 10 close - support attack aircraft, which province, he would have provoked another massive in turn necessitated expensive air defenses to operate refugee crisis with big implications for Europe. It's not against a sophisticated opponent. clear the world would be better off had Gen. Haft ar Drones have now changed this picture substantially occupied Tripoli. On the other hand, Turkey’s intervention bec ause they are relatively cheap, hard to defeat, and don’t in Nagorno - Karabakh created a massive refugee crisis for risk the lives of human pilots. Militaries around the world Armenians. The multi - sided nature of Middle Eastern are scrambling now to figure out how to defend conflicts makes them harder to solve, and is one reason themselves against drones, and it is not clear who will win why the Syrian civil war is s till raging after nearly a decade. the arms race between drones an d drone counter - Many American critics of U.S. drone policy are still measures. But it is possible that the world saw its last living in a world where the U.S. and Israel were the main massive tank battle during the 2003 Iraq War. users of this technology. But that world has already Drones have done much to promote Turkey’s rise as a disappeared and is quickly giving way to one in which regional power in the year 2020. The country has now dro nes become central battlefield weapons. What that will decisively shaped the outcomes o f three conflicts, and look like in ten years’ time is anyone’s guess.

Conflict over the Blue Nile Dam Could Destabilize the Middle East By Alberto M. Fernandez memri.org April 6, 2021 Egypt and Ethiopia have a dam problem. be decisive, but there is no doubt that the distrust and About two months from now, it will start raining in tension are rising. In addition to the conflict inside the highlands of Ethiopia. This is the longer rainy season Ethiopia, both Sudan and Egypt are themselves facing a in that country and will be the time that the second partial variety of internal challenges.[2] Seven other countries filling of the Great make up the ten riparian Ethiopian states of the Nile Basin,[3] Dam (GERD) takes place. and with Nile Basin If the GERD project and countries tied to other the first partial filling of regional states in the the dam last summer raised Middle East, Africa, and tensions with downstream global powers elsewhere, states Sudan and Egypt, the rising tensions about this year the filling comes the GERD cast a long along two additional recent shadow. events that heighten them As the African Union further: a brutal intern al seeks to broker an conflict inside Ethiopia in agreement, Sudan and Tigray, and border tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia Egypt have called for expanding mediation to the UN, EU, in the Fashaga region. The GERD should, in normal rainy and United States in addition to the AU. Ethiopia has not years, bring benefits to all three countries in terms of yet accepted while Egyptian President Al - Sisi recently regularizing waterflow, but in years of drought, Egypt made a stark warning that "Egypt's water is off limits." wo uld be at the mercy of a foreign power 2,000 miles Both Egypt and Ethiopia have alternated between away.[1] sounding conciliatory and bellicose, while Sudan – caught The complete filling of the GERD's lake will take in the middl e – leans toward Egypt now. Sudan and Egypt several years and there is no reason why this year should recently concluded joint wargames involving both aircraft Page 9 April 17, 2021 Focus on Israel

and special forces.[4] The GERD is located only a called in (or allowed) Eritrea, the North Korea - like former tempting 28 miles from the Sudanese border. enemy now ally of Ahmed to join in the carnage in Sensing, correctly, that an already volatile situation is Tigray.[7] A best - case scenario for the international de teriorating, the Biden Administration sent U.S. Senator community would seek to provide an off - ramp for the Chris Coons (D - Connecticut) to Ethiopia in March 2021 Ethiopian leader away from further deterioration in the and hinted at selecting veteran career diplomat Jeffrey internal political and se curity situation inside Ethiopia Feltman as Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa. While while seeking to decouple Ahmed from Eritrean dictator these pieces are put in place and f everish efforts toward a Isaias Afwerki; this is a very tall order. Ahmed described mutually acceptable negotiating mechanism are contrived, Ethiopia's military as "fighting on eight fronts" against its what should be priority diplomatic steps in this enemies, a description which seems to bode very poorly multifaceted conflict? for the country's near - term stability and its international Get The Guardrails Back Up – While AU diplomacy relations. And such instability in turn makes a GERD has been a constant and several countries, including t he dividend even more of an urgent imperative for a United States, have not been absent in their efforts, the messianic Ahmed to deliver some sort of tangible progress military dimension of a possible conflict is closer to the or hint at prosperity for hi s people,[8] further enraging an surface than ever before. Parts of the Sudan - Ethiopian Egypt fearful of drought and a Sudan threatened by border now host not only regular Sudanese and Ethiopian flooding. armed forces, but irregul ar forces and ill - disciplined tribal Warning/Engaging The Neighbors – While Eritrea militias. Sudan's former Janjaweed, the Rapid Support has played a key role in stoking instability inside Ethiopia Forces (RSF), face Amhara militias known for their in recent months, it is not the only regional wildcard that brutality against local people.[5] With the chance of can make the situation worse. Sudan is assaulted by inadvertent, escalating clashes and public saber - rattling so remnants of the Bashir regime broadcasting daily anti - prominent, a first step must be to ensure that a dangerous, government Islamist propaganda in Arabic from Istanbul volatile situation does not deteriorate even further into (the Erdoğan government was very supportive of the open military conflict before the rains come. brutal Bashir regime in its last years ).[9] Sudan, Ethiopia Getting Sudan Right – The rising regional conflict and Eritrea all have a long decades - old history of arming places Sudan's fragile transition toward democracy and rebel and insurgent groups against the other. The UAE, national peace at great risk. Sudan's transitional Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Israel can all play a role in making government has inked peace agreements with almost of the situation better or worse and need to be in constant the country's rebel groups, bringing the possibility of real di alogue with international mediators to ensure they play, peace to long - suffering areas like the Nuba Mountains and at least, a non - negative role. Blue Nile region c loser than ever. Sudan has just taken in Avoid Alienating Egypt – One of the problems with 70,000 Ethiopian refugees in the past few months.[6] The GERD negotiations in recent years was the Ethiopian civilian government has also begun taking much needed concern that the Trump Administration favored Egypt. political and economic steps to address the grim heritage That will cer tainly not be a problem with a Biden of the three decades of the Bashir regime. But there is Administration.[10] The danger now is that Egypt could be fierce ongoing competition not only between civilian and so alienated by the new administration that it could feel it military parts of the government but also within military has nothing to lose by a sharp military response to factions. The international community, led by the United Ethiopia if provoked. The irony is that the Unit ed States, States, must not lose focus in supporting Sudan's reform given human rights concerns about the Ahmed and political tra nsformation. It would be a great tragedy government, cannot swing too far toward the now that Sudan's transition would be lost in a rising conflict bloodstained embrace of Ethiopia's leader and away from about Nile water driven particularly by the country's Egypt even if Biden wanted. The U.S. needs a working authoritarian Northern and Southeastern neighbors. relationship with both Ahmed and President T rump's An Off - Ramp For Abiy Ahmed? – How the mighty "favorite dictator" President Al - Sisi to keep the overall have f allen! The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner Ethiopian situation from deteriorating further, let alone in attempting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is now credibly accused of forge some sort of face - saving solution. riding the crest of Amhara nationalism in committing Mr. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI. savage ethnic cleansing against Tigrayan rivals. Ethiopia

Israel’s Protracted Political Crisis Har ms National Security By Efraim Inbar jiss.org.il April 13, 2021 The power of the IDF, the potency of Israeli The results of Israel’s March 2021 election (its fourth deterrence, the health of Israeli society, and the election within two years!) again failed to yield a clear stability of Israel’s newest peace agreements with result. There is a reasonable possibility of a fifth election Arab counties – all are impacted negatively by this fall. Of course, the lingering political crisis has continuing electoral indecision. Focus o n Israel April 17, 2021 Page 10 domestic repercussions. It also is impairing Israeli national cohesion. Th e prolongation of political - electoral crisis security and eroding the country’s international standing. deepens weaknesses in Israeli society and invites foreign The political system in Israel is failing to ensure the aggression. stability required for smooth functioning of the Israeli The complicated political situation also raises difficulties in defense es tablishment. The most notable example of this is Israel’s foreign relations, particularly with countries of the the absence of clear medium - and long - term budgetary region with wh ich Israel recently has reached peace decision - making. agreements. These countries are unaccustomed to When he took office, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv weaknesses of the democratic system and are unfamiliar Kochavi sought to implement a multi - year military plan for with the vagaries of Israel’s political system. Instead, Arab the years 2020 - 2024, dub bed “Momentum.” Due to the countries have preferred to see Israel as a stable an d strong political instability and the coronavirus crisis, the plan did country with which long - term enterprises can be not receive orderly approval of the political echelon and is comfortably concluded. But Israel’s lingering political not backed by multi - year budgetary authorization. crises cast a shadow over this assumption and create Although the IDF is executing the plan as best possible discomfort among Israel’s new partners. The gap between with the resources currently allocated to it, there is Netanyahu’s international image as a strong, extremely considerable uncertainty about its full implementation. successful leader and his inability to win a series of election Furthermore, decision - making process on key security campaigns raises doubts regarding the credibility of Israel’s issues unquestionably has been harmed. The political leader and its political system. echelon is preoccupied with managing p olitical crises and The political stalemate also invites the interference of election campaigns. The time left for Israeli politicians to foreign elements in Israeli politics. In past, American think seriously about security challenges is limited. governments have been tempted to meddle in Israeli Although professional echelons of the defense election campaigns. The Palestinian Authority also has not establishment continue to work and make refrained from trying to manipulate the Arab public in recommendations, they cannot take m ajor decisions Israel. Prolongation of the electoral crisis creates a dditional without the involvement of the senior political level. opportunities for outside intervention in Israeli politics. The ongoing political crisis also undermines Israeli The most recent election result potentially has given the deterrence. Over recent years, Israel has been perceived Islamist Israeli Arab party Raam (a somewhat moderate around the world as a high - tech power and an Israeli version of the Moslem Brotherhood) a key role in economically and militarily str ong country. To this can formation of the next government. Raam may be the now be added Israel’s prowess in swiftly vaccinating its deciding factor in determining who will serve as Prime population against Covid - 19. All this has strengthened Minister. Israel’s deterrence, only to be damaged by Israel’s inability This may be an opportunity to enhance the integration of to elect a stable government to deal effectively with Israeli into Israel’s political system. It is also can be sec urity challenges. an opportunity to counter slanderous accusations that The continuing political crisis also propagates a perception Israeli democracy is flawed because it excludes Israeli Arab of Israel as a divided country that could crumble under citizens. pressure. While this is not an accurate reflection of the However, that matter is complex because those Arab state of Israeli society, this perception is preferred by the countries with which Israel has diplomatic relations regard political elites in Teheran who long for the day that Israel the Islamic identity of Raam in an extremely negative lig ht. will collapse due to internal divisions. In fact, this view of Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Israel is common among those who want to still believe Morocco are fiercely opposed to the religious extremism that the is a temporary phenomenon. This inspired by the Moslem Brotherhood, and are engaged view encourages the country’s enemies to c ontinue their with struggles again the Brotherhood in their own struggle against Israel’s existence. countries. If at the end of the day an I sraeli government is The main issue in the election campaigns of the last two formed the support of Raam, Israel will have some years has been Binyamin Netanyahu’s suitability to serve as explaining to do. Prime Minister. Serious disagreements about policy Israel’s political leaders must come to their senses and regarding the economy, the coronaviru s pandemic, Iran, form a stable and sane government. Continuation of the and the Palestinian issue conspicuously have been absent; existing situation breeds national insecurity. indicating a broad Israeli consensus on these issues. Professor Efraim Inbar is President of the Jerusalem Institute for Nevertheless, the election campaigns have exacerbated Strategy and Security ( JISS ) . social and political differences which erode Israeli social

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