Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth Studies in Income and Wealth Volume 51

National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Research in Income and Wealth Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth

Edited by Stanley L. Engerman and Robert E. Gallman

The University of Chicago Press

Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Long-term factors in American economic growth. (Studies in income and wealth; v. 51) Includes indexes. 1. North America-Economic conditions. 2. United States-Economic conditions. I. Engerman, Stanley L. II. Gallman, Robert E. III. Series. HCI06.3.C714 vol. 51 330 s [330.973] 86-11408 [HC95] ISBN 0-226-20928-8 (cloth) ISBN 0-226-20929-6 (paperback)

§ The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984. National Bureau of Economic Research Franklin A. Lindsay, chairman Geoffrey Carliner, executive director Richard Rosett, vice-chairman Charles A. Walworth, treasurer Martin Feldstein, president Sam Parker, director offinance and administration

Directors at Large Moses Abramovitz Walter W. Heller Peter G. Peterson Andrew Brimmer Saul B. Klaman Robert V. Roosa George T. Conklin, Jr. Franklin A. Lindsay Richard N. Rosett Jean A. Crockett Roy E. Moor Bert Seidman Morton Ehrlich Geoffrey H. Moore Eli Shapiro Martin Feldstein Michael H. Moskow Stephen Stamas Edward L. Ginzton James J. O'Leary Donald S. Wasserman David L. Grove Robert Parry Marina v.N. Whitman George Hatsopoulos

Directors by University Appointment Marcus Alexis, Northwestern Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford Charles H. Berry, Princeton James Simler, Minnesota James Duesenberry, Harvard James Tobin, Yale Ann F. Friedlaender, Massachusetts John Vernon, Duke Institute of Technology William S. Vickrey, Columbia J. C. LaForce, California, Los Angeles Burton A. Weisbrod, Wisconsin Paul McCracken, Michigan Arnold Zellner, Chicago James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley

Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Carl F. Christ, American Economic Rudolph A. Oswald, American Association Federation ofLabor and Congress of Robert S. Hamada, American Finance Industrial Organizations Association James Houck, American Agricultural Edgar Fiedler, National Association of Economics Association Business Economists Albert Sommers, The Conference Board Robert C. Holland, Committee for Dudley Wallace, American Statistical Economic Development Association Douglas Purvis, Canadian Economics Charles A. Walworth, American Institute Association ofCertified Public Accountants Douglass C. North, Economic History Association

Directors Emeriti Arthur Burns Frank Fetter George B. Roberts Emilio G. Collado Thomas D. Flynn Willard L. Thorp Solomon Fabricant Gottfried Haberler

Since this volume is a record of conference proceedings, it has been exempted from the rules governing critical review of manuscripts by the Board of Directors of the National Bureau (resolution adopted 8 June 1948, as revised 21 November 1949 and 20 April 1968).

To Raymond Goldsmith and to the memory of Simon Kuznets, pioneers of quantitative economic history