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Współpraca Konwencjonalnych Źródeł Węglowych I Wielkoskalowego Oze

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Współpraca Konwencjonalnych Źródeł Węglowych I Wielkoskalowego Oze WSPÓŁPRACA KONWENCJONALNYCH ŹRÓDEŁ WĘGLOWYCH I WIELKOSKALOWEGO OZE RAPORT 2019 WSPÓŁPRACA KONWENCJONALNYCH ŹRÓDEŁ WĘGLOWYCH I WIELKOSKALOWEGO OZE RAPORT 2019 WSPÓŁPRACA KONWENCJONALNYCH ŹRÓDEŁ WĘGLOWYCH I WIELKOSKALOWEGO OZE RAPORT 2019 Spis treści WSTĘP ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 1. UWARUNKOWANIA FUNKCJONALNE ENERGETYKI OPARTEJ NA PALIWACH KOPALNYCH, W SZCZEGÓLNOŚCI NA WĘGLU KAMIENNYM I BRUNATNYM ........................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 CHARAKTERYSTYKA KRAJOWEGO SYSTEMU ELEKTROENERGETYCZNEGO................................................................................... 7 1.2 KRAJOWI WYTWÓRCY ENERGII ELEKTRYCZNEJ ................................................................................................................................. 9 1.3 TECHNOLOGIE WYTWARZANIA ENERGII ELEKTRYCZNEJ................................................................................................................. 11 1.4 INWESTYCJE W NOWE ŹRÓDŁA WĘGLOWE ...................................................................................................................................... 11 1.5 ROZWÓJ KRAJOWEGO SYSTEMU ELEKTROENERGETYCZNEGO ..................................................................................................... 12 1.6 PRZYSZŁOŚĆ ENERGETYKI WĘGLOWEJ W POLSCE ......................................................................................................................... 13 1.7 PERSPEKTYWY ROZWOJU SEKTORA WĘGLOWEGO W POLSCE. .................................................................................................... 14 1.8 WNIOSKI ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Janusz Gajowiecki Remigiusz Nowakowski 2. UWARUNKOWANIA ROZWOJU ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ W POSZCZEGÓLNYCH SEGMENTACH .......................................................19 2.1 ROZWÓJ ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ NA ŚWIECIE............................................................................................................................... 19 Prezes zarządu Polskiego Stowarzyszenia Prezes zarządu Dolnośląskiego Instytutu 2.2 ROZWÓJ ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ W POLSCE ................................................................................................................................. 19 Energetyki Wiatrowej Studiów Energetycznych 2.3 ROZWÓJ MORSKIEJ ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ NA ŚWIECIE ............................................................................................................. 20 2.4 ROZWÓJ TECHNOLOGII W WYTWARZANIU TURBIN WIATROWYCH ............................................................................................. 21 Najbliższe dekady w krajowej energetyce będą upły- Struktura miksu energetycznego w Polsce będzie się 2.5 NAJWIĘKSZE PROJEKTY FARM WIATROWYCH NA ŚWIECIE, W EUROPIE I W POLSCE .................................................................. 21 wać pod znakiem wzrostu mocy zainstalowanej OZE. zmieniać, w wyniku czego nastąpi stopniowe odejście 2.6 OSIĄGNIĘCIA POLSKIEJ ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ W WYTWARZANIU ENERGII ELEKTRYCZNEJ .....................................................23 Przybywać będzie zwłaszcza turbin wiatrowych. Do od węgla na rzecz innych, mniej emisyjnych źródeł wy- 2.7 MOC CAŁKOWITA A WSPÓŁCZYNNIK WYKORZYSTANIA MOCY ELEKTROWNI WIATROWYCH.................................................... 23 kręcących się już w Polsce wiatraków o mocy 5,9 GW twarzania energii. Dlatego mówiąc o transformacji ro- 2.8 PROGNOZA KOSZTÓW WYTWORZENIA ENERGII DLA ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ ...........................................................................24 w tym roku dołączą kolejne farmy w efekcie aukcji dzimej energetyki, mówimy raczej o ewolucji niż rewo- 2.9 WPŁYW ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ NA CENY ENERGII ELEKTRYCZNEJ I REDUKCJĘ EMISJI DWUTLENKU WĘGLA ..................... 27 przeprowadzonych w listopadzie 2018 r. W 2019 r. za- lucji. Ta ostatnia byłaby wręcz niemożliwa ze względów 2.10 STOCHASTYCZNY CHARAKTER WYTWARZANIA ENERGII ELEKTROWNI WIATROWYCH A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO SYSTEMU ........ 27 powiadana jest kolejna aukcja, a szanse na uzyskanie zarówno technicznych, jak i ekonomicznych. 2.11 PROGNOZOWANIE ENERGII Z WIATRU ............................................................................................................................................. 28 rządowego wsparcia dostanie część spośród gotowych 2.12 WSPÓŁPRACA OZE Z POLSKIM PRZEMYSŁEM .....................................................................................................................................30 do budowy projektów o łącznej mocy 3 GW. Za kilka Bez wątpienia Polska będzie podążać za trendami glo- 2.13 WNIOSKI .............................................................................................................................................................................................. lat do wiatraków na lądzie dołączą farmy na Bałtyku, balnymi, rozwijając bazę wytwórczą w oparciu o odna- 31 które dziś choć są w fazie projektów, budzą duże za- wialne źródła energii. Jednocześnie jednak powinna 3. ANALIZA KOMPLEMENTARNOŚCI ENERGETYKI WĘGLOWEJ I WIATROWEJ .......................................................................................... 33 interesowanie krajowych i zagranicznych inwestorów. w sposób najbardziej efektywny wykorzystać swoje za- 3.1 CHARAKTER MOCY I PARAMETRY KONTROLOWANE W KSE ............................................................................................................33 Niebawem z Bałtyku będziemy odbierać 6 GW, a doce- soby konwencjonalne. 3.2 SKŁADOWA STAŁA I ZMIENNA ZAPOTRZEBOWANIA DOBOWEGO NA ENERGIĘ ......................................................................... 33 lowo jest mowa nawet o 10 GW. 3.3 WSPÓŁPRACA ELEKTROWNI KONWENCJONALNYCH I ELEKTROWNI WIATROWYCH ................................................................. 35 Czeka nas perspektywa współdziałania rosnących 3.4 WSPÓŁPRACA RÓŻNYCH ŹRÓDEŁ GENERACJI W ZMIENNYCH UWARUNKOWANIACH POGODOWYCH .................................. Równolegle będziemy świadkami zastępowania naj- w siłę wielkoskalowych źródeł odnawialnych ze sta- 36 starszych źródeł węglowych nowoczesnymi blokami na nowiącymi podstawę systemu energetycznego blo- 3.5 WSPÓŁPRACA KSE Z SIECIAMI ENERGETYCZNYMI KRAJÓW OŚCIENNYCH .................................................................................. 37 czarne paliwo. Część pracujących dziś mocy konwen- kami na węgiel. Ich funkcja powinna stopniowo ewo- 3.6 TOPOGRAFIA KSE I OTOCZENIA. ....................................................................................................................................................... 38 cjonalnych przejdzie głęboką modernizację. luować, tak aby przystosowywać się do zmienności 3.7 MOŻLIWOŚCI REGULACYJNE W KSE .................................................................................................................................................. 39 produkcji OZE. Efektywnie działające bloki węglowe 3.8 ELASTYCZNOŚĆ BLOKÓW ENERGETYCZNYCH ..................................................................................................................................41 Bez względu na te fakty Polski nie ominą światowe w przyszłości powinny zmienić charakter na tzw. źró- 3.9 WNIOSKI ..................................................................................................................................................................................................45 trendy – stopniowa ewolucja w kierunku OZE na czele dła podszczytowe, tj. pracujące z ograniczoną mocą 4. ANALIZA ŁAŃCUCHA WARTOŚCI ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ POD KĄTEM POTENCJAŁU POLSKIEGO PRZEMYSŁU .............................49 z wiatrem, produkujących coraz tańszą energię. i częściej zatrzymywane. Niektóre zadania regulacyj- ne z powodzeniem będą przejmować OZE. Jednak to 4.1 ANALIZA ŁAŃCUCHA WARTOŚCI ENERGETYKI WIATROWEJ ..............................................................................................................52 W polskich realiach moc bloków na węgiel nie będzie źródła konwencjonalne będą wciąż w najbliższej przy- 4.1.1 Projektowanie i planowanie ............................................................................................................................................................... 52 rosnąć. Z kolei moce odnawialne, przede wszystkim szłości gwarantem bezpieczeństwa i elastyczności Kra- 4.1.2 Produkcja turbiny ....................................................................................................................................................................................53 wiatrowe, wzrosną znacząco. Te dwa energetyczne jowego Systemu Energetycznego. Dlatego tak ważne 4.1.3 Produkcja infrastruktury przyłączeniowej i fundamentów ............................................................................................................. 53 światy są na siebie zdane jeszcze przez długie lata. jest, by planując modernizację tych bloków zapewnić 4.1.4 Prace instalacyjne ..............................................................................................................................................................................
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