2021 REGIONAL TRENDS REPORT Shaping a Sustainable Energy Future in Asia and the Pacific A GREENER, MORE RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE ENERGY SYSTEM The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members.* The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) serves as the United Nations’ regional hub, promoting cooperation among countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable development. The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 member States and 9 associate members, ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving economic, social and environmental dynamics of the region. The Commission’s strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration to advance connectivity, financial cooperation and market integration. The research and analysis undertaken by ESCAP, coupled with its policy advisory services, capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to support countries’ sustainable and inclusive development ambitions. Information and statistics presented in this publication include only those member and associate member States located in the Asia-Pacific region. *The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 2021 REGIONAL TRENDS REPORT Shaping a Sustainable Energy Future in Asia and the Pacific A GREENER, MORE RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE ENERGY SYSTEM United Nations publication Sales no.: E.21.II.F.3 Copyright @ United Nations 2021 All rights reserved ISBN: 978-92-1-120821-4 e-ISBN: 978-92-1-604002-4 ISSN: 2618-107X e-ISSN: 2618-1088 ST/ESCAP/2933 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided that the source is acknowledged. The ESCAP Publications Office would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. Use may not be made of this publication for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of reproduction, should be addressed to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations, New York. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Cover photos: United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or Istock photo #537887302 area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontier or Istock photo # 851449160 boundaries. ii Foreword Energy has played a key role in the Asia-Pacific region’s rapid economic growth, creating development opportunities and improving the lives of billions of people across communities. Yet, while the COVID-19 pandemic has posed multiple socio-economic development challenges, transitioning to a sustainable energy future remains a critical aspect of recovering better together. The pandemic has further highlighted the central role that energy plays in the delivery of distance and online education, digital health services and teleworking. Building on ongoing work of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) to advance the Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7), member States need to advance clear targets for universal access, increase renewable energy and improve energy efficiency, while Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement provides a basis for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. With the current pace, the Asia-Pacific region will not be on track to meet SDG 7 and the Paris Agreement goals. The aim of this report is to assess the ambitions and progress of ESCAP member States in the achievement of global, regional and national sustainable energy objectives, and to discuss solutions to the key challenges. The report assesses the potential for sustainable energy and building back better from COVID-19 to be mutually reinforcing, providing recommendations on how to develop greener, more inclusive energy systems that offer greater resilience to future crises. We have a historic opportunity to accelerate the deployment of sustainable technologies by directing investment towards renewable energy, energy efficiency and electric mobility. We need to further strengthen policy coherence and engage the private sector in financing the sustainable energy transformation. Drawing on the most up-to-date data across the SDG 7 targets, the analysis in this report considers a range of examples and key lessons from the varied experience across the region to inform and improve future decision-making efforts. ESCAP stands ready to work with stakeholders of the region and its member States to achieve a vision of a transformed energy system that ensures greater resilience and supports mitigation of climate change. It is my hope that this report will provide a basis for enhanced energy policies in pursuit of SDG 7 and the Paris Agreement goals as we recover better together in Asia and the Pacific. Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of ESCAP Shaping a Sustainable Energy Future A GREENER, MORE RESILIENT in Asia and the Pacific AND INCLUSIVE ENERGY SYSTEM / iii Acknowledgements This report was developed by the Energy Division of ESCAP under the overall direction and guidance of Hongpeng Liu, Director of the Energy Division, and Michael Williamson, Section Chief of the Energy Division. Kaveh Zahedi, Deputy Executive Secretary provided overall review and guidance to finalize the report. The principal author of the report was Kimberly Roseberry. The contributors from the Energy Division were David Ferrari, Faran Rana, Sergey Tulinov, Michael Williamson and Matthew David Wittenstein. The peer review and valuable suggestions were provided by SE4All, including from Olivia Coldrey, Tamojit Chatterjee, Brian Dean, Hannah Girardeau, Luc Severi and Ruchi Soni. Robert Oliver edited the manuscript. The cover and design layout were created by Lowil Espada. Administrative and secretarial support was provided by Prachakporn Sophon, Nawaporn Sunkpho, Thiraya Tangkawattana and Sarinna Sunkphayung. Mitchell Hsieh, Katie Elles, Kavita Sukanandan, Christophe Manshoven, Sompot Suphutthamongkhon and Chavalit Boonthanom of the ESCAP Communications and Knowledge Management Section, coordinated the dissemination of the report. iv Contents Foreword ii Acknowledgements iii List of boxes vi List of figures vi List of tables vi Abbreviations and acronyms viii Executive summary ix CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 1 ENHANCING INCLUSIVE INTRODUCTION xii SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT BY DEVELOPMENT: PROGRESSING SITUATION AND ENERGY ACCESS 13 TRENDS 1 The context for energy Energy supply and use in access 13 Asia and the Pacific 1 Progress towards universal Growing momentum for a energy access to energy 15 sustainable energy transition 3 Clean cooking: A deep dive SDG 7 as a guiding into impact, and barriers to framework for the energy uptake 22 transition 6 Major challenges to The outlook for meeting achieving universal access the SDG 7 targets is mixed 8 to energy 27 The sustainable energy Solutions to the challenges policy landscape 10 of universal access 34 Shaping a Sustainable Energy Future A GREENER, MORE RESILIENT in Asia and the Pacific AND INCLUSIVE ENERGY SYSTEM / v CONCLUSION AND CHAPTER 4 RECOMMENDATIONS 81 CHAPTER 3 BUILDING A RESILIENT A GREENER ENERGY ENERGY FUTURE Conclusion 81 SYSTEM THROUGH FOR ASIA AND THE Recommendations INCREASING PACIFIC 67 for policymakers 83 RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY First steps towards EFFICIENCY 36 recovery from COVID-19 67 Opportunities for the References 86 The context for green pandemic recovery 69 energy 37 The need to balance the Regional and subregional “Energy Trilemma” for the progress in increasing the energy transition 69 share of renewable energy and lowering energy New considerations for intensity 40 energy resilience 73 Key regional trends 47 A changing context for energy resilience 78 Advancing clean energy systems 57 Moving beyond the pandemic towards an accelerated sustainable and resilient energy transition 79 vi List of boxes Box 1 Electricity access systematic review findings 14 Box 2 Defining “clean cooking” 18 Box 3 Impact of COVID-19 on off-grid energy access 25 Box 4 Supporting renewables deployment with connectivity 60 Box 5 Data gaps and challenges 65 List of figures Figure 1. Total energy supply by resource in Asia and the Pacific, 2000-2018 2 Figure 2. Final energy consumption by sector in Asia and the Pacific, 2000-2018 3 Figure 3. Per capita CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in Asia and the Pacific, 2000-2018 4 Figure 4. Per capita final consumption in Asia and the Pacific by income group, 2018 4 Figure 5. Asia-Pacific needed annual investments under IRENA’s Transforming Energy Scenario through to 2050 5 Figure 6. Asia-Pacific clean energy investments, 2015-2020 11 Figure 7. Percentage of the population with access to electricity and clean cooking in Asia and the Pacific 15 Figure 8. Access to electricity across Asia-Pacific subregions 16 Figure 9. Asia-Pacific