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What Was the Message of the Limits to Growth?

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What Was the Message of the Limits to Growth? Version 5th April 2010 What was the message of the Limits to Growth? What did this little book from 1972 really say about the global future? Jorgen Randers Professor, Norwegian School of Management BI, Oslo, Norway [email protected] Club of Rome International Secretariat Tel.: 00-41-(0)52-244-0808 Lagerhausstrasse 9 Fax: 00-41-(0)52-244-0809 CH-8400 Winterthur (Canton Zurich) www.clubofrome.org Switzerland [email protected] Introduction The book entitled The Limits to Growth1 is known to many. It has been printed in millions of copies in more than 20 languages. It has been discussed aggressively for decades. Still it is not commonly known what this research report really did say in its 150 illustrated pages when it was first published in the US in March 1972. Many believe that The Limits to Growth forecast the end of the world before the year 2000, using a big mathematical model of the world system to do so. Others believe that Limits to Growth was a neo-Malthusian projection of population collapse in the 21st century, caused by global shortages of natural resources including oil and agricultural land. Others again think that Limits to Growth proved that economic growth cannot continue for ever on a finite planet. 2 Very few seem to know that Limits to Growth was a scenario analysis of 12 possible futures from 1972 to 2100. And that the main scientific conclusion of the study was that delays in global decision making would cause the human economy to overshoot planetary limits before the growth in the human ecological footprint slowed. Once in unsustainable territory, human society would be forced to reduce its rate of resource use and its rate of emissions. This contraction could only happen in two ways. Either through “managed decline” organized by humanity. Or through “collapse” induced by nature or the market. The only thing that could not happen, said Limits to Growth, was for world society to remain for ever in unsustainable territory, using more of nature every year than nature produces during that year. Irrespective of what it really said, “growth will come to an end” was the imprecise summary that stuck with the book. This was unfortunate, because most believed that Limits to Growth spoke about “economic” growth, while it really spoke about growth in “the human ecological footprint”. An important distinction, because Limits to Growth opened for endless economic growth (in economic value) as long as that growth is not associated with growing physical impacts (eg in resource use or pollution output). Whether “economic growth without growing physical impact” is feasible, remains an open question to this day. It is clearly possible in principle, but has not yet been observed in practice. Club of Rome International Secretariat Tel.: 00-41-(0)52-244-0808 Lagerhausstrasse 9 Fax: 00-41-(0)52-244-0809 CH-8400 Winterthur (Canton Zurich) www.clubofrome.org Switzerland [email protected] Limits to Growth did not seek to resolve this question, and the authors were split in their views on whether full decoupling is possible. But they did agree that global society ought to reduce its ecological footprint per unit of consumption, and much more important, start doing so in time to avoid global overshoot. They also agreed that the task would be greatly simplified if human society moved away from its fascination with growth, both in population and economic value. So that takes us back to the original question: What did the Lim its to Growth actually say? And is this message of any relevance today? In light of what has happened in the intervening 38 years. 1 Meadows Donella H., Meadows Dennis L, Randers Jorgen, Behrens William W (1972), The Limits to Growth, Potomac Associates, Washington DC 2 See for instance Bardi Ugo (2008), “Cassandra's curse: how The Limits to Growth was demonized” www.theoildrum.com/node/3551 Club of Rome International Secretariat Tel.: 00-41-(0)52-244-0808 Lagerhausstrasse 9 Fax: 00-41-(0)52-244-0809 CH-8400 Winterthur (Canton Zurich) www.clubofrome.org Switzerland [email protected] The original message of Limits to Growth Let us first rephrase - in modern language - the formal conclusions of Limits to Growth as they appeared on page 23 of the first edition1. The rephrasing deliberately uses language that did not exist in 1972 – concepts and words which have evolved since, partly as a consequence of the intellectual dispute around the message of Limits to Growth. Limits to Growth 1: The human ecological footprint grew rapidly from 1900 to 1972. Limits to Growth said that the environmental impact of human society did increase from 1900 to 1972 because of growth in population size and growth in the environmental impact per person. In other words, the ecological footprint of humanity became heavier because of growth in the number of humans, and because of growth in the amount of resources consumed and pollution generated per person per year. This growth has continued since 1972, in spite of the hope of many readers of Limits to Growth that societal advance would stabilize the global population or reduce the footprint per person. But the footprint has continued to grow, and since the middle 1990s we have had the statistical apparatus to follow the growth in quantitative terms2. The good news is that the footprint per person has levelled off and even declined in some countries. But the total human footprint is still being pushed up by increases in population and consumption Limits to Growth 2: The human ecological footprint can not continue to grow at the rate seen from 1900 to 1972, for more than a hundred years from 1972. Limits to Growth sais that the human ecological footprint can not continue to grow indefinitely because Planet Earth is physically limited and in fact rather small relative to human activity. Humanity cannot – in the long run - use more physical resources and generate more emissions every year than nature is capable of supplying in a sustainable manner. As noted above, the human footprint has continued to grow from 1972. It is important to note that Limits to Club of Rome International Secretariat Tel.: 00-41-(0)52-244-0808 Lagerhausstrasse 9 Fax: 00-41-(0)52-244-0809 CH-8400 Winterthur (Canton Zurich) www.clubofrome.org Switzerland [email protected] Growth used the words “growth” or “physical growth” instead of the modern, more precise, words “growth in ecological footprint” or “growth in environmental impact”. The latter words did not enter the literature until decades after the publication of Limits to Growth. Limits to Growth’s unfortunate choice of words led to decades of unnecessary public debate, because most readers interpreted the word “growth” as identical to “economic growth” or “growth in GDP (=gross domestic product)”, and argued against Limits to Growth’s message on this mistaken basis. Furthermore, many critics of Limits to Growth thought that “technology” would be capable of solving any resource crisis or scarcity, by bringing forth substitutes for any resource – in time and without temporary decline in human-well being. To some extent they have been right so far, although some view the recent increases in energy prices as a warning that the next generation of energy sources will only come on line after a temporary period of lower standard of living caused by high energy costs. Limits to Growth 3: It is possible, and even likely, that the human ecological footprint will overshoot the sustainable limits (=the carrying capacity) of Planet Earth. Limits to Growth said that the human footprint is likely to overshoot the physical limitations of the planet because there are significant delays in global decision making. When limits start approaching, society will initially spend time discussing their reality – and continue expanding while debating. Ultimately debate will give way for decisions to slow down, but meanwhile, said Limits to Growth, growth will continue and bring the human footprint into unsustainable territory. In more detail: It will take time (decades?) to observe and agree that current global activity exceeds the long term carrying capacity of the Planet. It will take time (decades?) for national and global institutions to pass the necessary legislation to stop overexploitation of the world’s resources and ecosystems. And it will take time (decades?) to repair the damage caused during overshoot, and heal the damage caused to ecosystems. In sum this means that growth in the footprint is unlikely to be stopped until after the sustainable level has been exceeded. Overshoot will not occur for all resources at the same time, but through individual long drawn stories (for example: the blue whale, Indian tigers, Canadian cod, Indonesian jungle, Australian reefs). The message of “overshoot caused by decision delays” was not picked up by the Limits to Growth reader- Club of Rome International Secretariat Tel.: 00-41-(0)52-244-0808 Lagerhausstrasse 9 Fax: 00-41-(0)52-244-0809 CH-8400 Winterthur (Canton Zurich) www.clubofrome.org Switzerland [email protected] ship. This is not surprising, because in 1972 (when the human ecological footprint was around one half of today’s) it was seen as rather inconceivable that global society would allow itself to grow beyond the sustain- able carrying capacity of the globe. By now we know better. In 2008 the human demand on the biosphere exceeded the global biocapacity by some 30 %. Global greenhouse gas emissions were some eight times above sustainable levels. Most global fisheries were overfished. The world of 2010 is “in overshoot”. Limits to Growth 4: Once sustainable limits have been overshot, contraction is unavoidable. Limits to Growth said that the human ecological footprint cannot remain in unsustainable territory for very long.
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