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Karsten, Detlev

Article — Digitized Version — Malthus revived

Intereconomics

Suggested Citation: Karsten, Detlev (1972) : The limits to growth — Malthus revived, Intereconomics, ISSN 0020-5346, Verlag Weltarchiv, Hamburg, Vol. 07, Iss. 11, pp. 343-345, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02929666

This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/138733

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by Dr Detlev Karsten, Stuttgart*

The publication of =The Limits to Growth - A Report for the 's Project on the Predica- ment of Mankind" has resulted in a world-wide discussion of this vital Issue. The following article reviews different aspects of the study.

he authors-Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. living which is equivalent to the present level of T Meadows, Jorgen Randers, William W. Beh- consumption of the highly developed European rens Ill-try to prove two things. One is the exis- nations, and quite possibly even this standard tence of global limits to growth, and the other is cannot be reached by all people. If, for social the already pressing importance of these limits reasons, a fair distribution is also desired, this for our present day behaviour. Their reasoning necessitates a reduction of levels of consumption rests on the observation of past trends of popula- in some of the already industrialised countries. tion growth, of depletion of nonrenewable re- sources, of production, of industrial produc- It is the thesis of the study that this predicament tion and of environmental . On account of mankind can only be solved by conscious ac- of the which characterised tion to bring about this equilibrium. The sooner the development of these factors in the past it is a determined effort is made, the better are the hardly surprising that a model which is based on chances to reach the equilibrium state, and the extrapolation and which allows for interaction be- higher will be the then possible standard of living tween these elements predicts a collapse of the for all mankind. An attitude of complacency, on whole system: , decline of medical care the other hand, will result in disaster. and the adverse effects of environmental pollution result in reduced , in an Interest to General PubUc absolute decrease of and in a very much depressed standard of living. All this will Although little of the arguing is new, the study happen within the next 100 years even under the deserves credit for having aroused the interest most optimistic assumptions of the development of the general public on a much larger scale than of the key factors. any other similarly apocalyptic vision that could be compared to this book. It is quite possible Mobillsatlon of Counteracting Forces that a more sophisticated approach could have made the study useless for this important purpose. The intention of this demonstration is to mobilise Even more refined methods would only have con- counteracting forces which would help to reach firmed the resulting message of the book: To use a situation of global equilibrium. Such an equilib- Boulding's famous illustration-mankind has out- rium can only be attained if zero population grown the time of the prairie-economy and has growth becomes a reality. The possible level of reached the period of spaceship economy-,there wellbeing will then depend on the careful utilisa- is a need to adjust universal behaviour to these tion of the truly scarce factors: the limited capac- facts. ity to produce food, the limited raw material supply, and the limited absorptive capacity of the If one agrees with the objectives and the general environment for . According to the au- conclusions of the study, criticism is difficult. thors, even the prudent use of available re- There are, however, a few points that seem to sources-what includes widespread - require comment. will allow for all mankind at best a standard of It can be argued that two of the basic difficulties * Institute for Social Economics, University of Stuttgart. -environmental pollution and exhaustion of indus-

INTERECONOMICS, No. 11, 1972 343 l ECONOMIC GROWTH trial raw materials-could be solved, or at least logical equilibrium means another limit to growth. be very much alleviated, by utilising more . This, however, is a limit of which we only know This to the problem of energy supply. Again that in all probability it exists, but we do not there is a question of a possible exhaustion of know where it is. The apparent calculability of the existing sources of energy. But here one can the limits given in the study has exactly this argue that nuclear fusion reactors are "just shortcoming: that it cannot take into account this around the corner". And that could mean an end limit which evades calculation, but which never- of the world-wide shortage of energy. An optimist theless could become effective before any one may then conclude that this changes everything: of the other calculated limits is reached. The fact Wlth abundant energy the limits of growth can be that this point is barely touched upon in the book extended. can either be attributed to the assumed irrele- vance of the argument-in which case this should But it is widely recognised that even this devel- have been stated-or it is a major and dangerous opment would take the world only to another neglect. limit - given not any longer by the exhaustion of the energy supply, but by the fact that amounts Necessary Self Restraint of energy which reach the order of magnitude of the incident solar energy cannot be absorbed by It is one of the main arguments of the book that the environment without endangering the universal the equilibrium state can only be reached if man- ecological balance. Even an increase of tempera- kind exercises a certain amount of self restraint. ture of 10~ Centigrade would change living con- With other words, the present standard of living ditions intolerably. Although this issue is still of the most highly developed countries is the being debated, there is a distinct possibility that absolute maximum thinkable if we envisage also we have here a more fundamental limit to growth a fair distribution. This argument leads to a re- than the ones suggested in the study for the Club markable characteristic of the book - which is, of Rome. Of course this argument supports the on the one hand, its strength and presumably main thesis of the book. But there is the danger responsible for its success but which can also be that some people see only the possibility of ex- considered a weakness. This is the basically tending the limits further by the utilisation of "technological" reasoning without many social energy. Because they do not realise that this considerations. At least to the ordinary reader takes mankind to another limit they may dismiss the logical link between the limitation of industrial the important conclusion of the book-the call for production and the impairment of the standard action-as premature because it is based on un- of living seems obvious enough. Apart from the justified . shift in emphasis to services in the future pattern of consumption, which is dealt with in the book, Ecological Dangers there appears to be a definite possibility that a different supply of products-which in costs (raw The study gives the impression that the limits to material and energy consumption, environmental growth can be determined by computer calcula- pollution, etc.) may be equivalent to the present tion. Such a view looses sight of another imme- supply-may result in a much higher standard of diately imminent danger. This is the problem that living. we are now exposing ourselves and our environ- To substantiate this reasoning: There is no ques- ment to over half a million different chemicals, tion that increasing environmental pollution in- all of which must eventually be imposed on the duces the production of certain items whose only environment. And this number is estimated purpose is to protect against the effects of pol- to be increasing by 400-500 new chemicals per lution. Typical examples are a considerable pro- year. These new substances include since World portion of expenditures for cleaning devices, most War II synthetic , , antibiotics, of the non-corrosive facade-coverings, traffic that radio isotopes, detergents and industrially made is generated by the desire to escape into healthier hormons. surroundings, etc. Similar effects can be observed For most of these things the possible effects on in the sphere of production: Pollution of surface the are unknown, and many of them may waters leads to higher costs of be new DDT cases or may have even stronger and necessitates the construction of swimming destructive effects. The situation has been de- pools, although before it was possible to swim scribed by the American ecologist Cole as "play- in the river, etc. Since the production and opera- ing russian roulette with biogeochemical cycles". tion of these protective devices results again in There can be no doubt that the possibility of pollution there is a positive feedback. The argu- unforeseen, sudden and total disruption of eco- ment cannot be pursued here, but there is a good

344 INTERECONOMICS, No. 11, 1972 ECONOMIC GROWTH chance that the satisfaction derived from the pres- study-to curb , to question ent volume of production could be much higher economic growth as an end in itself, to use pru- if only things were produced which are "originally" dently the existing nonrenewable resources- are wanted, against so many things the demand for possibly incomplete, and certainly somewhat which is only induced. This phenomenon is, in the trivial for a person who does not have to be con- final analysis, a consequence of shortcomings vinced of the relevance of the first point. But one of the economic and . may expect that in this respect the approach used by the group will yield more surprising Investigation of Social Conditions results in further studies. Future investigations may produce a list of "essentials" that have to be Along the same lines it can be argued that the done. But even if the of these material ad- connection between industrial production and justments is not very controversial, the main diffi- environmental pollution is less stringent than one culties begin when real actions are considered. may derive from the book. With appropriate social The reluctance of some developing countries to controls (e.g. the internalisation of social costs) subject in the interest of the whole world to cer- much of the present pollution could be avoided tain measures of environmental protection is only even with existing without impairing one example; the little understanding that devel- the general level of production. The policy to oped countries have for the needs of the less- reach the general equilibrium is more likely to developed countries is another case. find popular support if the edge is taken from the acute conflict between individual wellbeing and Reforms of Social Systems universal equilibrium; this in particular because it is primarily the people who enjoy the advan- This leads to a third point - the question of the tages of the present state of affairs from whom adjustment required in the social/political field action to effect the necessary adjustment is ex- to allow actions on issues located in the upper pected. right hand corner of the time/space graph: deci- In general, the investigation of social conditions sions with a global perspective extending for sev- is of crucial importance for the whole issue be- eral generations into the future. The critical prob- cause the clear insight into the deficiencies of lem, which reforms of the social systems of the the social organisation and the recognition of the whole world are needed to give the necessary need for reform are presumably prerequisites for material changes a chance of realisation, seems the accomplishment of the other changes advo- to be the most important one. This fundamental cated in the book. issue is of course well beyond the scope of the study. But if-after reading "The Limits to Aim and Strategy Growth"-a good number of people realise that in this world the decision not to act has conse- The first and most important objective of the quences which are comparable to those of any study-to get the message of the existence and particular action, this may also help to solve this of the relevance of limits to growth accross to third problem. the general public-has been accomplished. The main thesis cannot be invalidated, even if pedantic Finally, the argument that the limits to growth criticism begins to analyse the detailed descrip- will be extended further by new technologies, in tion of the methods which will be published in the the same way in which Malthus' predictions were final technical report. The demonstration of these invalidaded, is a shaky one. It should be a ques- limits could have been even more impressive if tion of morale and responsibility towards future the authors had given more emphasis to the fact generations not to rely on and not to anticipate that limits to growth have already been reached in our actions discoveries and inventions before in certain regions (overpopulation in some under- they have been made. The only honest behaviour developed countries, environmental pollution in seems to be an acceptance of the limits of growth heavily industrialised areas). But it is obvious that as they exist to the best of our scientific knowl- this idea of the existence of limits to growth can- edge and technological capabilities. One may not be new today, more than 170 years after hope for a future extension of these limits, but Malthus' "Essay on the Principle of Population". it would be nothing less than gambling with the wellbeing of future generations to take such ex- The second question has to be whether the ac- tensions for granted. Therefore the attitude of tual nature of the limiting constraints has been complacency has to be abandoned in favour of sufficiently clarified. This identification is needed rational planning. The publication of "The Limits as a basis for any strategy to deal with the prob- to Growth" has apparently helped in the spread- lem. In this field the suggestions given in the ing of this message.

INTERECONOMICS, No. 11, 1972 345