<<

THE DEBATE

Population and the Environment: How Do and Policy Respond?

hen the modern Enthusiasm for interventions waned. Access to emerged in the West fifty years ago, over- family and abortions was cut back as a Wpopulation was a central international con- priority in international aid programs. cern. Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 best seller The Population was under 4 billion people at the time Bomb warned that demographic pressures were of the report. It is now almost double, worsening environmental destruction. The 1972 an estimated 7.5 billion, and that could reach 11 Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth used a model that billion by 2100 — without intervention by policy- included . The same year, the makers, , and ordinary people. groundbreaking UN environmental conference in The disengagement of the environmental move- , among its principles, listed population ment with issues of did little to growth as a major concern. change environmental impacts. While Malthusian Yet, a variety of forces slowly but surely distanced predictions of mass starvation have not yet come population issues from the mainstream environ- to pass, emission profiles sug- mental agenda. , with its gest that global will not be solved emphasis on growth, became an international goal. by alone, but will continue to climb if The specter of forced sterilization in and the population grows. And are already tak- excesses of ’s one- policy were alarming, ing over critical for . suggesting to some that stabilizing population was Is humanity pressing on the ’s carrying ca- synonymous with government excess and pacity? What and policies have been devel- rights violations. oped to address population growth, internationally Others argued that the population issue was and within specific countries? Have they been ef- simply one of and that a demographic tran- fective in holding off the depletion and sition would automatically follow in countries who environmental degradation forecast by scientists move from low to middle income dynamics. And for and demographers? Based on these lessons, how many, services — primarily abortion do we best address and growth to but in some cases also contraception — are simply meet humanity’s resource needs and minimize its contrary to basic moral precepts. effect on the ?

44 |THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM Copyright © 2017, Institute®, Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, March/April 2017 “Absent iron-fisted global “There is, sadly, no sign rationing of material that an abandoning of , decoupling -mania between human or humane population population size and shrinkage could occur ecological damage is in the critical next few impossible” decades”

Joe Bish Paul R. Ehrlich Director of Issue Advocacy President Population Media Center Stanford University Center for Conservation

“Demystifying the wood “Too slow or even fuel chain and negative growth rates pursuing one that is also pose to the more sustainable as of population pressures otherwise successful increase would be a game changer” interventions”

Wanjira Mathai Jaime Nadal Roig Director Representative to Partnership for Women’s Population Entrepreneurship in Renewables Fund

“Environmental “Any long-term policies should focus on formula for a increasing sustainability. sustainable Above all, they should requires demographic reject a view that there stability — a state is any human life that is that is still disturbingly dispensable” elusive”

Lucia A. Silecchia Alon Tal Vice Provost for Policy Chair, Department of Public Policy Catholic University Tel Aviv University

® Copyright © 2017 Environmental Law Institute , Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. MARCH/APRIL 2017 | 45 Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, March/April 2017 THE DEBATE

Undue confidence in demographic replacement , should be out- Exceeding transition theory, which assumes “eco- lawed. , with a fertility rate Benchmark nomic development is the best con- of 1.3, currently pays over $6,800 for a traceptive,” will certainly not suffice. third child. Projections Persistently high fertility in economi- Importantly, the medical defini- cally growing, lower middle-income tion of pregnancy should guide legal By Joe Bish countries like Zambia and — systems everywhere. Pregnancy oc- along with well-documented “stalls” in curs when a fertilized egg implants in uadrupling from 1.86 billion fertility decline across — signal the uterine wall; as the Guttmacher people in 1920 to today’s 7.48 dangerous unreliability in the notion. Institute notes, this fact distinguishes billion, the human popula- A more instructive effort was en- “between a contraceptive that prevents Q tion has grown in a man- gineered by , starting in 1986, pregnancy and an abortifacient that ner that is both temporally swift and when its population was 49 million. terminates it.” In the Philippines, faith- cumulatively massive. In the scientific With women averaging 6 children, the based petitioners have delayed imple- literature, correlations between this annual growth rate was 3.2 percent. mentation of the progressive Respon- ballooning population and ecological The government faced prospects of a sible Parenthood and Reproductive degradation are omnipresent. Biodi- population doubling in just 20 years Act of 2012 for over four years versity is in perilous decline. A 2015 — posing monumental challenges by arguing, speciously, that hormonal study in found humanity has for security, , and jobs. contraceptive implants are abortifa- transgressed four of nine planetary In response, adopted explicit cients. Hamstrung by such inanity, boundaries, increasing risks that hu- demographic goals: by 2009, cut the citizens now face impending shortages man activity will drive Earth “into a annual growth rate to 2.2 percent of the popular contraceptives. much less hospitable state.” and the fertility rate to 3.5 births per Humanity is capable of sparking Meanwhile, the flagship United woman. rapid global fertility decline with Nations population projection — To support this initiative, the gov- justice-oriented, -en- the “medium variant” — assumes ernment deployed print-media, TV, hancing interventions. In addition to incremental decreases in global child- radio, and pre-marriage counseling to policies like Iran’s, mass-media “green bearing to the year 2100, from today’s educate the public about population entertainment” initiatives can edu- global average of 2.5 children per growth. Family planning was encour- cate audiences about small family size woman to 1.99 then. If these assump- aged to reduce poverty and enhance decisions and environmental conser- tions prove accurate, 3.7 billion ad- access to health and education for fu- vation through the use of behavioral ditional people are expected, totaling a ture . The status of women role-models, featured in soap operas still growing 11.21 billion. was boosted considerably, as secondary and video games. Such strategies are Ecologically speaking, this “busi- education was opened up to females recommended by Section 11.23 of ness-as-usual” scenario is unacceptable, and university enrollment for women the seminal Programme of Action of useful only as a motivational bench- soared. the 1994 Cairo International Confer- mark to measure against. The results were dramatic. The ence on Population and Develop- An accelerated slowing of growth, an government’s goals were accomplished ment. end to total growth well before 2100, by 1993, some 16 years ahead of The need is elemental. and achievement of a far smaller peak schedule. Today, Iran’s women average have fixed minimum requirements population size than ensconced in the 1.65 children, population is expected of sustenance and space, yet pursue medium variant will define success. to peak at mid-century at 92 million, improved living standards when- To achieve these objectives, conditions likely decreasing to 70 million by ever possible. Regulatory oversight to must be created to facilitate far more 2100. ameliorate environmental impacts of rapid declines in child-bearing than Iran’s success can inform policy those pursuits are necessary, but not medium variant assumptions. anywhere fertility is above replacement sufficient, to achieve a sustainable Opportunities are ample: the global level, but reformers must remain vigi- . Absent iron-fisted global measure of 2.5 children is an “average lant against authoritarian restrictions rationing of material resources — an of extremes.” It includes ’s high on fecundity. For example, from 1996 unattractive delusion — transforma- fertility (7.6), ’s low (1.2), to 2000, sterilization without informed tive decoupling between human popu- and everything in between. Overall, consent of an estimated 300,000 - lation size and ecological damage is 104 countries have fertility greater vians is attributable to the discredited impossible. than the “replacement level” of 2.1. idea of “.” Likewise, These countries are prime candidates cash incentives for child-bearing, as Joe Bish is the director of issue advocacy at for policy interventions. practiced by some countries with sub- Population Media Center.

46 |THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM Copyright © 2017, Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, March/April 2017 THE DEBATE

when incentives are right, consump- such activities, people form govern- Without Policy tion patterns can be changed over- ments, and governments prohibit Changes, a Global night. This was clearly demonstrated various actions because they inter- in the rapid U.S. reaction and mobi- fere with some of their principal Crash Is Inevitable lization after Pearl Harbor. functions: maintaining order and There are potentially many legal peace and protecting . By Paul R. Ehrlich and other mechanisms for curb- Since overpopulation is now a ma- ing : , jor threat to all three, indeed to the he basic driver of today’s tax policies, campaigns to change persistence of civilization, regulating environmental norms, etc., but none of them seem the size of their populations clearly is aggregate , feasible considering the hold faith- should be a central policy concern of Tnow causing humanity to live on its based has on politicians all national governments. , rather than on the and businesspeople alike. The magi- Giving women everywhere legal- interest that flows from that capital. cal notion that growth on a finite ly equal rights to men and provid- Natural capital is not just fossil planet can continue forever and that ing everyone with access to modern fuels, minerals, and timber, but it growth is the cure for all economic contraception and safe back-up also includes , plankton, fish problems has a death grip on most abortion might to the critically stocks, pollinators, natural enemies societies, built into such institutions necessary slow decline in numbers. of crop pests, disease vectors, and as fractional reserve banking and But the required changing of norms sinks for , advertising. before legal steps could be taken trash, and other and This myth persists, even though could be a slow process in many toxins. the warnings of the Limits To societies, and just achieving those Aggregate consumption is a prod- Growth study continue to be con- goals could be controversial and uct of population size and per capita firmed. Nonetheless, limiting con- difficult. More direct , consumption, its impact being mod- sumption among the rich and a as in China’s one-child program, ulated by the and polit- substantial redistribution of wealth would present even more difficult ico-social arrangements that (say, via Milton Friedman’s negative policy and legal challenges. And the consumption. The signs of income tax) seem essential for avoid- whatever steps are taken, because overshoot are everywhere: hundreds ing a worldwide collapse — loss of of the momentum built into its of millions hungry, and billions of socio-political-economic complexity age structure, humane shrinkage of people malnourished in terms of accompanied by a dramatic decline the global population is not likely micronutrients, the accelerating in population size — in the next few even to reduce it below today’s level sixth mass , the dramatic decades. within this century. decline in returned on energy Humanely shrinking the global The scientific ’s -re invested in the scramble for oil, the population, the other side of the ag- peated warnings about the popula- heating planet and increasing ex- gregate consumption coin, will take tion problem have fallen on deaf treme weather, the escalating refugee many decades to show significant ears. Numerous studies point to the crisis, the scramble after remaining progress. It would require mov- problem. There is, sadly, no sign that high-grade resources, the pollination ing the (average a general abandoning of economic crisis, the weight of plastic trash in completed family size) down to growth-mania or humane global the oceans soon to exceed that of somewhere just a little above 1, by population shrinkage could occur fishes, ocean dead zones, symptoms making a single child family the in the critical next few decades. All of global toxification with hormone- ethical norm. But there persists a this means that progressive civil mimicking compounds, falling widespread belief in a right to have society must start putting its efforts sperm counts, and the automatic as many children as one desires. into planning to soften the coming decline (with population growth) of All rights, regardless of their pu- collapse of civilization and finding democratic government, as each in- tative origins, clearly have attached ways to prepare for a post-collapse dividual voter’s say is diluted. These, responsibilities and limitations recovery that might give survivors examples, along with global foot- where they impinge on other peo- in remnant societies a reasonably print analyses, show that the human ples’ rights. The right to pursue hap- decent life. population greatly exceeds Earth’s piness does not allow one to drive long-term . 100 miles per hour through school Paul R. Ehrlich is Bing Professor of Popula- From a policy viewpoint, the zones or throw over the tion Studies. Emeritus, and president of the driver most easily addressed is over- back fence, no matter how joyous Center for at Stanford consumption by the rich. We know it makes you. In order to suppress University.

® Copyright © 2017 Environmental Law Institute , Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. MARCH/APRIL 2017 | 47 Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, March/April 2017 THE DEBATE

charcoal production), poor public given their responsibility for sourcing Turning Up health, and a worsening of climate firewood, there is a strong rationale the Heat on change, it will continue to be a signifi- for directly integrating them when ad- cant energy source in the developing dressing wood supply issues. Wood Fuel , particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, What we urgently need is a more for the foreseeable future. sustainable wood fuel supply chain, By Wanjira Mathai The challenges surrounding the particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, to production and consumption of address both the inevitable growing ore people on Earth means wood-based energy, especially charcoal, demand for fuel wood and the pressure that more energy will be in developing countries include the of population growth. Rather than ex- needed to cater to their unsustainable and often illegal produc- tracting fuel wood from natural forests Mneeds. We also know, via the Intergov- tion that to forest degradation that serve other critical functions for ernmental Panel on Climate Change, and in some cases to wood scarcity. society such as water filtration, as - that to avoid catastrophic effects from These have far-reaching consequences bon sinks, as biodiversity hot spots for warming we must keep planetary tem- given the demand for this fuel. Indeed, , and many more benefits, peratures in check. Staying below the 2 if wood fuel becomes scarce as human communities must invest in sustain- degree limit means cutting greenhouse numbers increase, health and food se- ably managed woodlots to supply their gas emissions globally, most of which curity would be at stake. energy needs. Growing your own fuel come from burning fossil fuels for elec- The opportunity here is to ensure trees on your is a concept tricity. There is hardly a more efficient that the fuel is produced sustainably that should be promoted in rural areas, way to cut emissions worldwide than and used efficiently. According to where over 90 percent of all wood fuel to look at the opportunities presented the Partnership for Women’s Entre- is consumed. by the sector. preneurship in Renewables, non- The Movement, a Today in Sub-Saharan Africa (ex- wood energy sources are available for wPOWER partner, encourages the cepting South Africa), wood fuel is use in developing countries but their planting of trees close to the - an essential part of the energy equa- adoption, especially for cooking, stead for fuel and discourages the use tion. Over 80 percent of primary will continue to be slow due to the of natural forests to meet domestic energy needs are met using charcoal enormous costs associated with the household energy needs. The World or firewood. Further, the Food and required to prospect Bank 2012 report on wood-based Organization’s “State of the for, produce, and distribute them. energy in Sub-Saharan Africa World’s Forests” report also provides This problem is compounded by the estimates that creating a more sustain- clear evidence of the economic and fact that these technologies can be able wood fuel supply chain would social significance of wood fuel: Over cost prohibitive. Clearly, efforts to deliver far-reaching benefits. These 50 percent of all wood produced in the provide energy for all communities would include rural employment for world is used for energy. Further, 22 at an acceptable environmental cost up to 8 million people, up to $2 bil- of the 29 countries in which wood fuel must recognize the importance of lion annually in additional revenue represents over 50 percent of all energy wood fuels and should be included for governments through formalized use are in Africa. Some 30 percent of in national policies to make them taxation, and approximately 700 mil- the world’s households use wood as more efficient and sustainable. lion tonnes of wood removals from their main cooking fuel. Importantly, Indeed, unless more is done to indigenous forests could be prevented. 85 percent of all wood fuel is collected manage the production and burning of We must accept that wood fuel is not by women and girls. wood, environmental destruction and a transitional fuel. It is here to stay for Wood also accounts for 10 percent public health issues will proliferate. the foreseeable future. Demystifying of energy consumption in industrial- According to the Global Alliance for the wood fuel value chain, therefore, ized countries, mostly to heat . Clean Cookstoves, already the world and pursuing one that is more sustain- Increasing demand for wood fuel, loses over 4 million people annually able as population pressures increase especially for charcoal production, is from complications related to indoor would be a game changer for climate unsustainable and bound to be more air from burning wood fuel. and would stimulate in destructive under business-as-usual As population pressures, energy de- the use of this essential fuel. scenarios. That will only worsen as mand, and food demand continue to population increases, leading to a spiral expand, the burden of agriculture (in- Wanjira Mathai is the director of wPOWER of destruction. cluding ) and energy needs on Hub. She sits on the boards of the Wangari While wood fuel use at the - the environment are undisputed. Fur- Maathai Foundation, the Green Belt Move- hold level has been associated with ther, since dispropor- ment, IISD, and the World Resources Insti- (primarily through illegal tionately affects women and children, tute. She lives in Nairobi, .

48 |THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM Copyright © 2017, Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, March/April 2017 THE DEBATE

individuals to make choices, and to of goods and services. Technology We Know What implement them. While an accelerated could and should play a key role to Do; All We growth rate poses significant challenges in advancing this shift. Only then to development policies, too slow or could slower population growth play Need Is to Do It even negative growth rates also pose a relevant, positive role. risks to the sustainability of otherwise At this point, it would be important By Jaime Nadal Roig successful public policy interventions. to highlight that slower population Scientific research and available data growth would also mean a different hat are from demographic and health surveys household structure and, likely, a not neutral to social and eco- clearly show that the ideal family size higher concentration of people living nomic development is well tends to replacement levels as educa- in , which could be far more effi- Tknown and has been a research subject tion and income rises, but they also cient in the deployment of social devel- since the 18th century. Apart from the show that there are significant gaps opment initiatives and in adapting to body of scientific research produced between the ideal and the actual num- the impact of climate change. over this period of time, there have ber of children people have. The un- The effects of climate change are been numerous attempts to enact met need for family planning, affecting known to exacerbate existing inequali- public policies that seek to affect popu- mainly poorer, less educated women, is ties, aggravating the risks already faced lation dynamics in different — often- an important factor in this regard. by the more vulnerable populations. times opposite — ways. Evidence so far points to the fact The Zika is a clear example In 1946, soon after the estab- that have of how poor local environmental lishment of the United Nations, a been produced mainly by developed conditions, poverty, vulnerability, commission was created in order to economies and have been primarily and inequality — amplified by global generate and guide mem- driven not by demographic growth warming — can create a ber states’ policies targeting popula- but rather by unsustainable patterns of emergency. tion dynamics. The establishment production and consumption adopted The inter-linkages between popula- of the United Nations Population by the richest one fifth of the world. tion dynamics and interventions to Fund in 1969 and the celebration of Fostering development through social mitigate and adapt to climate change several population and development inclusion, economic growth, and envi- and foster environmental sustainability conferences, chiefly the 1994 Cairo ronmental sustainability is perhaps one require further research and politi- meeting, allowed for a more mean- of the biggest challenges the interna- cal attention. Regrettably, the level of ingful role of the United Nations tional community has embarked on. resources aimed at enabling women in providing technical assistance to According to UNFPA, population to make decisions about the number countries while safeguarding human growth accounts for 40-60 percent and spacing of their children has been rights in matters of reproductive of emissions growth, with the rest declining over time. health and rights. being attributable to patterns of As of 2017, there are over 200 mil- The debate generated around the consumption and production. The lion women of reproductive age world- late 1960s and , stemming challenge, therefore, would be to en- wide with an unmet need for family from the publication of The Popula- sure the well-being of the remaining planning. Unless their needs, demands, tion Bomb and , four-fifths of the and become a pri- revived the Malthusian view that — as the UN Agenda 2030 states, ority, the necessary balance between the world was almost pre-destined “Leaving no one behind” — without population growth, social inclusion, to its collapse by a natural tendency pursuing the unsustainable patterns and environmental sustainability will to overpopulation. Interestingly adopted by the few wealthier people, not exist. enough, the views expressed by which would require resources equiv- We have the international frame- Condorcet a few years before Mal- alent up to five times the planet’s car- work, the scientific evidence, and we thus published his essay, stating that rying capacity. know what works — such as univer- , education, and social No doubt a slower population sal access to sexual and reproductive progress would prevent the over- growth rate would certainly help in health. There is simply no justification population doomsday, were absent the mid to long run, but it would for inaction. from the debate. not be sufficient by itself. Sustain- Since Malthus, there has been a ability would require a cleaner Jaime Nadal Roig, M.Sc., is a demographer prevailing view that population growth energy matrix and a major shift with 20 years of professional experience in the is a direct threat to humanity. This in the patterns of production and United Nations. He has been the United Na- debate requires a balanced approach consumption, including efforts to tions Population Fund representative to Brazil that shifts the focus to the ability of ensure a more equitable distribution since July 2015.

® Copyright © 2017 Environmental Law Institute , Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. MARCH/APRIL 2017 | 49 Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, March/April 2017 THE DEBATE

policies of ‘.’ . . . population control on poorer nations Rejecting a View “To blame population growth through economic pressures, neglect- That Any Human instead of extreme and selective con- ing the imperialistic overtones of this sumerism on the part of some, is one approach and its disregard for the Life Is Dispensable way of refusing to face the issues. It is critical social support structure large an attempt to legitimize the present families provide. By Lucia A. Silecchia model … where a minority believes Ironically, some wealthy nations that it has the right to consume in a simultaneously advocate control of ew issues are as contentious way which can never be universalized, populations in poor countries while and morally sensitive as the re- since the planet could not even con- aggressively implementing poli- lationship between care for the tain the products of such con- cies to increase their own popula- Fenvironment and population control. sumption. . . . [A]pproximately a third tions — populations who will have As environmental woes garner atten- of all food produced is discarded.” a far larger environmental impact. tion, it is tempting to view population Thus, he warns against viewing It undercuts the dignity of the hu- reduction as a solution. International population control as a simplistic man person, made in God’s image development policies include popula- solution to environmental problems and likeness, by denying humanity’s tion control measures, environmental that avoids the need to reduce exces- unique place in creation. It ignores groups advocate for abortion access, sive consumption, adopt a responsible intergenerational solidarity, which and foreign aid to impoverished na- lifestyle, and reject waste, greed, and places the lives and existence of tions includes substantial funding for “cheerful recklessness.” on an important population reduction. At the extreme, In this, Pope Francis echoes his pre- footing in the setting of environ- China’s notorious “one child” policy decessors. Pope John Paul II warned in mental policies. It also ignores the and its horrific abuses was touted as 1990, “If an appreciation for the value demands of intragenerational soli- . of the human person and of human darity, which challenges all to use Superficially, population reduction life is lacking, we will also lose inter- the world’s resources wisely, well, seems a straightforward benefit, as it est in others and in the Earth itself. and with responsible respect for all. may reduce competitors for limited Simplicity, moderation and discipline, Environmental policies should resources and curb demand for envi- as well as a spirit of sacrifice, must focus on increasing sustainability by ronmentally intense food production, become a part of everyday life, lest all developing renewable resources, guar- transportation, waste disposal, water, suffer the negative consequences of the anteeing safer , safeguard- and fuel for heating or cooling. How- careless habits of a few.” ing the water supply, and promoting ever, the population-environment link Similarly, in 2010, Pope Benedict less environmentally destructive food is not this simplistic and it is laden XVI advocated “development based sources. It should place poverty reduc- with profound moral hazards. in the centrality of the human person, tion and increased educational access Pope Francis garners much atten- on the promotion and sharing of the at its core, since these factors often tion as he — like his predecessors — , on responsibility, on a naturally yield more dispersed and brings principles of Catholic realization of our need for a changed stable populations. It should empha- to bear on environmental responsibil- life-style, and on prudence, the virtue size safer development and design of ity. He follows a tradition that looks which tells us what needs to be done urban areas and , and not to population control but to con- today in view of what might happen curb the rampant waste of food and sumption control, poverty relief, and tomorrow.” water that needlessly deprives the poor moral transformation as a sounder, Certainly, they recognize popula- of their sustenance and the Earth of its but more complex ecological formula. tion’s complications, and Pope Francis treasures. It should focus on corrup- In his 2015 encyclical “Laudato warns in “Laudato Si’” that “attention tion and power imbalances that divert Si’,” Pope Francis critiqued tempta- needs to be paid to imbalances in necessary resources from those who tions to rely on population control for .” need and deserve them. Above all, it environmental solutions, writing: Yet, serious moral questions are should reject a view that there is any “Instead of resolving the prob- raised by using population control to human life that is dispensable. lems of the poor and thinking of address environmental harms. Doing how the world can be different, so allows wealthy consumers to ignore Lucia A. Silecchia is professor of law and vice some can only propose a reduction the impact of their wastefulness by provost for policy at the Catholic University of in the . At times, develop- encouraging the poor, who consume America, where she also directs the Interna- ing countries face forms of interna- far less, to “solve” environmental tional Human Rights Summer Law Program in tional pressure which make econom- problems by reducing their numbers. Rome and is a fellow of the Institute for Hu- ic assistance contingent on certain It allows wealthy nations to impose man .

50 |THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM Copyright © 2017, Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, March/April 2017 THE DEBATE

would be more for the survivors.” and observe that relative to countries In a Crowded Overpopulation can also indirectly like and the , the and More drive violent conflict. All over the number of persons per square mile is world, demographic pressures trans- not particularly high. Such superficial Violent Future late into degradation, with the criteria fail to recognize that in hot U.N. estimating that roughly a third and arid regions, people cannot By Alon Tal of the planet’s surface area is affected thrive. by abuse. As more people are forced This past summer saw record tem- n 1962, John Calhoun, a behav- to overgraze rangelands or push mar- peratures soaring beyond 130 degrees ioral ecologist at the U.S. Na- ginal lands into food production, the in the most desiccated corners of the tional Institute of , resulting frequently . The band of human Ipenned one of the most provocative leads to . Large displaced settlement in water-scarce regions is pieces ever published in Scientific populations soon become a vector for becoming increasingly narrow. People American. He described a study that violence. have little choice but to move along assessed how rat populations react The situation in is instruc- the or to urban areas, where to conditions of extreme crowding. tive. One-dimensional explanations of infrastructure exists that can provide As population repeatedly doubled, complex conflict dynamics are bound reasonable livelihoods and help miti- while space was held constant, the to be simplistic. Political repression gate harsh climatic conditions. Every animals grew aggressive, initiated vio- and long-held ethnic animosities year these places become more crowd- lent sexual attacks, abandoned their were the proximate reasons for the ed, degraded, and unpleasant. pups, and resorted to cannibalism. implosion in Syrian society and the Dense settlement of people does It did not take long for population civil war. But, the burgeoning popula- not mean that violence is inevitable. levels to crash. Subsequent experi- tion density surely exacerbated water One need only look at the ments showed similar dynamics when shortages and the hasty rural urban rates in Tokyo and Singapore versus crowding forced a range of species, migration, where refugees’ frustration those in Caracas and to from primates to farm animals, into in squalid, crowded conditions soon know that there are cultural factors involuntary social encounters. boiled over. in play, not to mention very differ- The implicit message for human Even after the massive human exo- ent gun control policies. But, high society remains clear: As places be- dus and many casualties from the war, densities create conditions where come more crowded, they tend to the 18 million people living in Syria existing social pathologies more read- become more violent. Notwithstand- today represent a 900 percent increase ily explode into violence; throughout ing our remarkable capacity to adapt in the population levels that existed the world, homicide rates in cities are in peaceful urban settings, and con- there less than 70 years ago. It is higher than in the countryside. trasting cultural norms for acceptable doubtful whether events would have Most population growth now takes personal space, humans remain ter- played out as they did if the country place in Africa, a with 16 ritorial animals. If people’s territory is still enjoyed the per capita space and percent of the world’s people, but over invaded, they begin to feel agitated. water levels that existed with 2 mil- half of its military conflicts. As we Environmental lion. consider the impact of an additional 3 textbooks devote entire sections to As Syrian refugees pour into Jor- billion people on the planet’s resourc- documenting the physical and mental dan, Turkey, and , they aggra- es, it is well to remember that social symptoms exhibited when crowding vate local conditions that are already cohesion and harmony are arguably elevates physiological . Extreme explosive due to demographic inten- the most important resource of all. densities can also cause depression sification. Jordan’s population of 9.5 Any long-term formula for a sus- and social withdrawal, with many million has grown 19-fold since 1950, tainable peace requires demographic crowded cities showing significantly and local is becoming stability — a state that is still disturb- elevated incidence of mental illness. intolerable. This kind of exponential ingly elusive. In areas given to historic When scientist Jared Diamond growth sabotages any pretext of food ethnic and geopolitical violence, fami- chronicled the 1994 genocide in security and caloric self-sufficiency. ly planning is nothing less than a stra- Rwanda, he posited that the coun- The associated resource shortages, tegic security imperative, while rapidly try’s status as the most crowded na- traffic congestion, unemployment, growing populations remain a recipe tion in Africa was not coincidental. and collapse of overstretched social for increased enmity and violence. Diamond cited a pervasive feeling services engender frustration, fear, sus- that there were “too many people picion, and xenophobic anger. Alon Tal is chair of the department of public on too little land, and that with a There may be some who look at policy at Tel Aviv University and co-chair of reduction in their numbers, there the density levels in the Middle East This is My Earth.

® Copyright © 2017 Environmental Law Institute , Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. MARCH/APRIL 2017 | 51 Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, March/April 2017