ç NORTHWEST SYRIA - SITUATION OVERVIEW 27 February 2020 Context Overview of key REACH findings Since the escalation of conflict in December 2019, the humanitarian situation in the opposition- This situation overview aims at supporting humanitarian planning in the northwest of Syria. controlled enclave of Idleb has reached an intolerable level. The area, which was already highly Based on recent information collected by REACH and its partners, this document provides an vulnerable and dependent on aid, has seen the displacement of more than 950,000 people in overview of: 1) the displacement trends since December 2019; 2) some of the key needs and just over two months. While some of the newly displaced are moving northwards to the relative vulnerabilities of the crises-affected population; 3) the impact of the crisis on markets, and safety of Azaz, Afrin, and other sub-districts in northern Aleppo, most are remaining within Idleb the availability and affordability of basic items. governorate, moving towards the border in and around already overcrowded camps and villages, as Among the key findings highlighted in the following pages: well as settling in open fields. Mass displacement continues. So far, over 950,000 people (50% of them children) have Even when displaced, civilian populations are not safe. As stated by the Under Secretary-General been displaced since 18 December 2019 within Idleb enclave and towards 'Olive Branch' and for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Mark Lowcock: “They arrive in a place 'Euphrates Shield' areas. This has led to an overcrowding of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) thought to be safe, only for the bombs to follow”.1 With sub-zero temperatures, reports continue camps, collective sites and villages, with 39% of newly displaced households sleeping in of children freezing to death and people huddling in caves and under plastic sheets to keep warm the open, in tents, or makeshift shelters (see part 3 of this report for further information). 2 and safe. Local service providers and humanitarian actors working in the area have rapidly The population displaced since December 2019 is extremely vulnerable. 85% of them mobilised to respond to the escalating crisis. However, they lack the required resources to meet are reportedly not intending to leave their current location in the coming two weeks mostly due the exponential increase in need, and are facing significant logistic and security challenges that to not being able to afford further movement. The prevalence of vulnerable populations is inhibit their operations. common among newly displaced, with presence of unaccompanied children reported in 91% of assessed communities in Idleb governorate (see part 4). TURKEY As conflict continues to encroach upon TURKEY highly populated areas such as Idleb Shelter, winter items (notably heating fuel), and food are priority needs. Lack of access to Azaz ç city, the catastrophic humanitarian shelters and heating fuel is of particular concern given the harsh winter conditions. In addition, IRAQ Afrin situation is at risk of deteriorating even most households displaced since December are resorting to negative coping strategies with, for JORDAN further. In these unprecedented times, example, 25% of the population reported as eating one meal or less per day (see part 4). and with no time to waste, the international community must step up its response to the These needs are compounded by high inflation and a parallel depreciation of the Syrian ç Aleppo crisis. Specifically, humanitarian actors Pound (SYP) against the US Dollar (USD), causing the purchasing power of households to Aleppo must be supported to upscale their drop significantly. The cost of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) has operations in both Idleb and northern increased by 65% between October 2019 and February 2020, with prices of items such as Idleb Aleppo through increased funding bread increasing by 80% and heating fuel by 129% (see part 5). 27 Feb 2020 Opposition territory as of 27 Feb 2020 and improved access. They must be Idleb 1 Dec 2019 able to operate safely beyond border Humanitarian actors are facing significant challenges in effectively responding to these Opposition territory rapidly escalating needs. In addition to lacking the required resources, they face access as of Dec 2019 areas, to respond to the needs of affected Lattakia challenges because of overcrowding, difficult terrain, as well as ongoing insecurity(see part 4). Olive Branch and populations while avoiding creating a Euphrates Shields dangerous pull factor that would further In part 6, the reader will find an annotated list of relevant information products used for this situation congest the camps, sites and villages Hama ç Border crossing overview. All REACH products are available on our resource centre (https://www.reachresourcecentre. close to the Bab Al Hawa border crossing. info/country/syria/). 1) Mark Lowcock, Briefing to the Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria, 29 January 2019. 2) CBS Observer, Syrians are forced to camp in freezing conditions, 15 February 2020. NW SYRIA SITUATION OVERVIEW 2. BACKGROUND 27 FEBRUARY 2020 Change in opposition-controlled areas Timeline T 27 F 22 March 2011: Protests in southern Syria begin, spreading to Idleb governorate 1 T TURKEY in September and intensifying in Aleppo the following year. 2 27 F 22 T F Early 2013: Opposition-controlled areas include most of Idleb and northern 2 2 Bab Al Salamah ç Ar-Raee Aleppo governorates (including east Aleppo city), as well as parts of Hama and T Azaz Lattakia governorates.2 2 F 2 Afrin T 2 2 Mid-2014: So-called ISIL starts expanding its areas of control in northern and Jandairis eastern Syria. By May 2015, the territory under ISIL control includes large parts O B E S Al Bab 3 27 F 22 of northern and eastern Aleppo governorate. S Daret Azza Aleppo S 2 Bab El Hawa December 2016: The Government of Syria retakes control of the entire city of Harim ç Dana Aleppo Aleppo, following six months of besiegement. Salin Atareb ç B arbah As-Safira March 2017: Turkish-backed opposition forces conclude operation 'Euphrates Source: Liveuamap Shield', controlling areas between Afrin and Menbij districts in northern Aleppo. Idleb asab October 2017-February 2018: The Government of Syria makes significant Saraab territorial gains in Hama, Aleppo and southern Idleb governorates. Jisr-Ash-Shuur Ariha Idleb hanaser January-March 2018: Turkish forces and Turkish-backed opposition groups Maarrat enter Afrin in operation 'Olive Branch'.4 An uman afr obol Al-Haffa attakia attakia September 2018: The Sochi agreement leads to the announcement of a demilitarised zone around the front line, guaranteed by Russia and Turkey.5 Al-ardaha han Shaykun Idleb and surrounding areas of western Aleppo and north-western Hama are some of the last remaining opposition-held areas in Syria. Jablah Hamra 18 December 2019 - 27 February 2020: Conflict intensifies, leading to a Tal Salhab significant reduction in opposition-controlled territory. Banyas Hama Hama Saboura 1) ALEPPO – Governorate profile, Syria Needs Analysis Project, March 2013 Masyaf 2) Timeline: the Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State, October 28, 2019 Tartous Oeirbat 3) OCHA (15 June 2018), Syrian Arab Republic: Humanitarian situation update in Afrin District and for IDPs in As-Salamiyeh surrounding communities 4) OCHA (15 June 2018), Syrian Arab Republic: Humanitarian situation update in Afrin District and for IDPs in Homs surrounding communities 5) OCHA (8 May 2018), Situation in North-western Syria Situation Report No.4 NW SYRIA SITUATION OVERVIEW 3. DISPLACEMENT TRENDS (SINCE DEC 2019) 27 FEBRUARY 2020 Humanitarian In November 2019, prior to the recent escalation of conflict, the opposition-controlled area of Snapshot | IDPs in North West Syria - 23/02/2020 Needs Assessment CCCM CLUSTER Programme SUPPORTING DISPLACED COMMUNITIES www.globalcccmcluster.org Idleb (including parts of neighbouring governorates - see map in part 2) had a total population Jarablus Meydan-I-Ekbez of approximately 2.5 million, including just over 1.12 million IDPs (45% of the total population). Ain al Arab Newly Displaced Persons Lower Shyookh st (Since 1 of December 2019) Jarablus Bab Al Salam Bulbul Sharan Al-Ra'ee Between 18 December 2019 and 23 February 2020, an estimated 948,088 people (50% of 948 K Raju Ghandorah Map Key Suran them children) were newly displaced from the area: 560,626 within Idleb and 387,462 in Ma'btali A'zaz Ar-Ra'ee Total IDPs (Baseline) 1 Menbij No IDPs Aleppo governorate. It is estimated that among the newly displaced, 40% may be secondarily Aghtrin < 25,000 Afrin A'rima 25,000 - 60,000 Sarin Sheikh El-Hadid Tall Refaat Mare' displaced, having already been displaced at some point before December 2019. Abu Qalqal 60,000 - 120,000 Jandairis Al Bab >120,000 Olive Branch Nabul New IDPs (Displaced since 1st of December) Atmeh Tadaf Within the shrinking opposition-controlled area of Idleb, the increase in displacement has Haritan <1,000 Dana Bab Al Hawa Daret Azza 1,000 - 5,000 caused significant overcrowding. The total population remaining in Idleb enclave is now at Rasm Haram El-Imam Turkey Qourqeena >5,000 Harim Jebel Saman Friendship Bridge Salqin Country Border approximately 2.1 million, an estimated 70% (1.45 million) of whom are IDPs. In a territory of just Eastern Kwaires Atareb Governorate 2 Kafr Takharim Dayr Har Jurneyyeh Aleppo Sub districts 3,500 km , this means that the current population density is of approximately 600 inhabitants per Maaret Tamsrin Roads 2 Teftnaz As-Sara km . Within the area, most are concentrated towards Idleb city and around the border crossing Darkosh Highway Darkosh Armanaz Hadher Maskana Bennsh Primary Idleb Zarbah Banan of Bab Al Hawa (see satellite imagery in part 3.1 and 3.2). Kherbet Eljoz Border Crossing Points Janudiyeh Sarmin Samira Closed M4 Hajeb Jisr-Ash-Shugur Al-Khafsa Open Yunesiya Saraqab Sporadically Open Badama Ariha The most common areas of departure of IDPs displaced since December include Idleb, Mhambal M5 Rabee'a Abul Thohur Tall Ed-daman Kansaba Turkey Ma’arrat An Nu’man, Saraqab, Ehsem and Atareb sub-districts.