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The Evaluation and Selection of Renewable Energy Technologies in China

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The Evaluation and Selection of Renewable Energy Technologies in China Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 61 ( 2014 ) 2554 – 2557 The 6th International Conference on Applied Energy – ICAE2014 The evaluation and selection of renewable energy technologies in China ZHANG Li-bo *ˈ Yang Tao ˄Energy Soft Science Research Center, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China˅ Abstract With the increasing pressure to international energy supply, greater climate and environment problem related to the traditional fossil energy, many countries have decided to develop the renewable energy vigorously. Renewable energy technologies include hydro, wind, solar, biomass, ocean energy and geothermal. Different countries and regions have different choices on renewable energy technology because of their different economic, technical and environmental conditions. The academic has paid more and more attention to the evaluation and selection of renewable energy technology. This paper builds a comprehensive evaluation index system for Chinese renewable energy technology based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA), from economic, technology efficiency, social and environmental benefits. The result shows that wind and solar power are more suitable for Chinese economic, technical, environmental and social requirements, followed by biomass, hydropower, ocean energy, geothermal energy. © 20142014 The The Authors. Authors. Published Published by Elsevier by Elsevier Ltd. This Ltd. is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (Selectionhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ and/or peer-review under responsibility). of ICAE Peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of ICAE2014 Keywords: Renewable energy; evaluation and selection; China; DEA 1. Introduction Vigorously develop renewable energy has become the world choice to address the global climate change, energy security, carbon emissions, sustainable development. More than thirty developed countries and a dozen developing countries have taken renewable energy as an important role in future energy strategy. China is the second largest economy in the world. The rapid growths of energy demand has a higher requirement to energy security, the extensive mode of economic development put great pressure to energy * Corresponding author. Tel.: 0086-13655182003 E-mail address: [email protected]. 1876-6102 © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of ICAE2014 doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2014.12.044 Zhang Li-bo and Yang Tao / Energy Procedia 61 ( 2014 ) 2554 – 2557 2555 and carbon emissions. Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of renewable energy. According to Chinese “long-term development plan for renewable energy” : China will invest 2 trillion̞to gradually improve the proportion of renewable energy in energy consumption structure in 2020. The renewable energy will accounts 10% of the total energy consumption in 2010, and increase to 15% in 2020. China will build 300 million kilowatts of hydropower, 30 million kilowatts of wind power, 30 million kilowatts of biomass power, 1.8 million kilowatts of solar power and 300 million square meters of solar water heaters. Different renewable energy technologies have different characteristics in economical, technical and environmental aspects. Some renewable energy technologies have some limitations. For example, the solar energy are totally different with different geography, weather and seasons; The wind power will change a lot with different wind speed, and it is dangerous for the fan when the wind speed is bigger than 21m/s and the fan can’t run when the wind speed is less than 3m/s. The ocean power can only be used by the sea. The geothermal has a big relationship with geography. The complex of the renewable energy technologies requires every country to evaluate and select the right technology based on their own conditions. So the evaluation and selection of Chinese renewable energy technologies have great significance. 2. Literature Review Michael Jefferson [1] researched the development and application prospects of renewable energy from energy supply, the contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and climate. Arnulf [2] researched the EU PV and renewable energy from energy challenges, policy options, technology and market development. Annette Evans [3] made a comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy and analysed their advantages and disadvantages from electricity prices, greenhouse gas emissions, availability, energy efficiency, demand for land and water, social impact. Evans [4] took the limitations of different renewable energy technologies into evaluation, such as solar resource varies with geography, weather and season; Wind energy is limitation by the uncertain wind speed. Cavallaro [5] considered the installed capacity ratio, temperature and other technical indicators in the evaluation of solar thermal technology. Muhammad [7] took Pakistan as an example used AHP model evaluated Pakistani renewable energy technologies, from economy, environment, society, technology and politics. José [6] used DEA model evaluated the efficiency of Spain’s 13 kind of renewable energy technologies. Minguez [8] focused on the noise and the some environmental indicators in wind power projects. Wu [9] built a hierarchical evaluation model of various power generation of China based the AHP and fuzzy mathematics. Zhang [10] built a multi-objective decision model of qualitative and quantitative to optimize the energy structure, and make use of the genetic algorithms to clarify the future direction of Chinese renewable energy development. But overall, there are still some gaps between China and other country in the research about renewable energy technologies, especially the systematic research about the evaluation and selection of Chinese renewable energy technologies. 3. Model 3.1 Construction of evaluation index system. After the in-depth analysis of Chinese renewable energy detail technology, and take the existing research and relevant literature [11~14] as a reference, we can get the detail indicators of each indexes. The evaluation system of this paper takes economic (A), technological (B), social (C) and environmental 2556 Zhang Li-bo and Yang Tao / Energy Procedia 61 ( 2014 ) 2554 – 2557 index (D) into consideration. Taking the existing research and relevant literature as a reference, we can get the detail indicators of each index, as shown in Fig.1. Fig.1 The evaluation system of Chinese renewable energy technologies 3.2 Model framework For the renewable energy technologies in China, the research first builds the AHP model to determine the weight of the four indexes by Delphi method. Then using DEA model to calculate the efficiency of the eleven indicators, and calculate the total efficiency of the four indexes based on the efficiency of the eleven indicators. Finally calculate the weighted efficiency of different renewable energy technologies. 3.3 Data processing and analysing The dates of this research are from “China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2012”, “China Energy Development Report 2012” and some relevant document. According to the dates above, the DMU of indexes in the DEA model can be calculated with the help of LINGO8.0. Then combine the DMU of indicators with the weight of each index, the comprehensive evaluation and the ranking of Chinese renewable energy technologies is shown in table.1. Table.1 The comprehensive evaluation table economic technical environmental social index(C) comprehensive index(A) index(B) index(D) Ranking evaluation 0.6427 0.101 0.2083 0.048 hydro 1 0.628468 0.717647 0.13345 0.862066738 4 wind 0.213873 0.444444 1 0.243388 1.24331896 1 Solar PV 0.43932 0.212904 0.607208 1 1.039178592 2 biomass 0.532042 1 0.432765 0.241379 0.950798062 3 ocean energy 0.202253 0.172552 0.11443 0.286903 0.398932749 5 geothermal 0.134231 0.183334 0.10023 0.12336 0.105644944 6 Zhang Li-bo and Yang Tao / Energy Procedia 61 ( 2014 ) 2554 – 2557 2557 Conclusion The research shows that hydro power is the best renewable energy technology under the economic benefits index. The solar PV has the highest technical benefits. The wind power is the best technology with social benefits index. And the biomass power gets the highest social benefits. But in the evaluation system of the four indexes, the wind power is the best choice for China, followed by solar photovoltaic, biomass power, hydro power, ocean power, and geothermal power. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully appreciate the financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71373122), the Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Chinese Ministry of Education (No. 10YJCZH222). References [1] Michael Jefferson. Sustainable energy development: performance and prospects [J]. Renewable Energy, 2006, 31: 571~582. [2] Arnulf Ja¨ ger-Waldau. Photovoltaics and renewable energies in Europe [J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2007, 11: 1414~1437. [3] Annette Evans, Vladimir Strezov, Tim J. Evans. Assessment of sustainability indicators for renewable energy technologies [J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2008, 8: 1082~1086. [4] Evans A, Strezov V, et al. Assessment of sustainability indicators for renewable energy
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