Chinese National Oil Companies in Kazakhstan Implications for Geopolitics and Energy Security
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University of Amsterdam Graduate School of Social Sciences Chinese national oil companies in Kazakhstan Implications for geopolitics and energy security MSc Thesis Political Science: International Relations Research Project: The Political Economy of Energy 24 June 2016 Author: Supervisor: S. (Simon) Spornberger Dr. M. P. (Mehdi) Amineh 11128569 Prof. Dr. K. (Kurt) Radtke 2 Table of Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Acknowledgement .................................................................................................................... 6 Maps .......................................................................................................................................... 7 List of tables and figures .......................................................................................................... 9 List of abbreviations ............................................................................................................... 10 Chapter I – Introduction ....................................................................................................... 12 1.1. Overview of the research ............................................................................................... 12 1.2. Literature review ............................................................................................................ 14 1.3. Theoretical and conceptual framework ......................................................................... 18 1.4. Outline of the argument and hypotheses ....................................................................... 22 1.5. Research method and operationalization ....................................................................... 24 1.6. Structure of work ........................................................................................................... 25 Chapter II – State-market relations of China’s energy sector ........................................... 26 2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 26 2.2. Power structure and state-society relations .................................................................... 26 2.3. Industrialization and energy scarcity ............................................................................. 28 2.4. The nature of Chinese national oil companies ............................................................... 32 2.4.1. Brief history ........................................................................................................ 32 2.4.2. Ownership and control ....................................................................................... 33 2.5. The going-global strategy of China‘s energy sector ...................................................... 37 2.6. Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 39 Chapter III – Sino-Kazakh energy relations ....................................................................... 40 3.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 40 3.2. The Kazakh energy sector ............................................................................................. 40 3.3. The Sino-Kazakh partnership ........................................................................................ 44 3.3.1. Diplomatic relations ........................................................................................... 46 3.3.2. Economic relations ............................................................................................. 48 3.3.3. Security relations ................................................................................................ 56 3.4. Conclusions.................................................................................................................... 56 3 Chapter IV – CNPC in Kazakhstan ..................................................................................... 58 4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 58 4.2. Relationship with Kazmunaygaz ................................................................................... 58 4.3. Relationship with IOCs.................................................................................................. 61 4.4. Conclusions.................................................................................................................... 66 Chapter V – Implications for geopolitics and energy security .......................................... 67 5.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 67 5.2. Domestic impediments .................................................................................................. 67 5.3. Interests of other major powers .................................................................................... 70 5.3.1. United States ....................................................................................................... 71 5.3.2. Russia ................................................................................................................. 73 5.4. Geopolitics and energy security..................................................................................... 74 5.5. Conclusions.................................................................................................................... 76 Chapter VI – Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 78 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................... 82 Books .................................................................................................................................... 82 Articles, book chapters, reports ............................................................................................ 84 Online sources ...................................................................................................................... 91 Databases .............................................................................................................................. 96 4 Abstract This thesis studies the implications of Chinese energy investment in Kazakhstan with regards to geopolitics and energy security. China‘s rapidly increasing demand for imported fossil fu- els has forced its government to expand its energy policy beyond its national borders. In order to enhance its access to energy resources abroad, the Chinese government has been facilitat- ing the cross-border expansion of its national oil companies through diplomatic and financial support. Since 1997, China has built a strong political and economic partnership with re- source-rich Kazakhstan, as Chinese NOCs have gradually increased their cross-border in- vestment in the country‘s oil and gas sector. Assessing the increasing interaction between Chinese NOCs and other energy companies, the findings of this thesis suggest that Chinese energy investment in Kazakhstan has accelerated the integration of the global energy market. Viewing the cross-border expansion of China‘s energy sector mainly in geoeconomic terms, the results of this study indicate that the increasing number of alliances between Chinese NOCs and Western-based IOCs enhances the possibility of future cooperation between China and other major energy importers. 5 Acknowledgement This thesis is the result of five months of research, data collection, writing and editing. It has been a period of intense learning on an academic and on a personal level. First and foremost, I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor and mentor, Dr. Mehdi Amineh, whose guidance and personal dedication have enabled me to conceptualize and conduct this research. Through participating in his course ‗Energy and Geopolitics in Eurasia‘ in the first semester of my master‘s program, I developed the knowledge and interest that encouraged me to con- duct my own study on the subject. Also, I would like to thank my second reader, Dr. Kurt Radtke. Having been raised in a family that values critical thinking and academic learning, I would like to thank my parents for their support and confidence throughout my educational path. Finally, I would like to express my appreciation to my brother and my close friends for their continuous encouragement. Simon Spornberger 24 June 2016 6 Map 1 – China Source: The CIA World Factbook (2016). 7 Map 2 – Kazakhstan Source: The CIA World Factbook (2016). 8 List of tables and figures Tables Table 2.1. The three main Chinese NOCs in numbers………………..………….………. 33 Table 3.1. Kazakhstan‘s main oil and gas fields…………………..………..………........ 43 Table 3.2. Presidential visits between China and Kazakhstan since 1992…………......... 47 Table 3.3. Chinese investments in the Kazakh energy sector, 1997-2016…………...….. 51 Table 3.4. Chinese loans to Kazakhstan, 2008-2016…………………………………….. 53 Table 3.5. Selected energy-related loans from China to Kazakhstan, 2009-2014……….. 55 Table 4.1. Major joint ventures of CNPC and KMG in Kazakh upstream oil sector……. 59 Table 4.2. Shell and CNPC in numbers. ………………………………………………… 63 Table