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A New Nuclear Review for a New Age

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A New Nuclear Review for a New Age NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY A New Nuclear Review for a New Age Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. John S. Foster, Jr. Study Director Chairman, Senior Review Group Dr. Kathleen Bailey Gen C. Robert Kehler, USAF (ret) Gen Kevin Chilton, USAF (ret) Dr. Susan Koch Mr. Elbridge Colby Dr. Matthew Kroenig Mr. Matthew Costlow Senator Jon Kyl Dr. J.D. Crouch II Dr. Steven Lambakis Ms. Michaela Dodge ADM Richard Mies, USN (ret) Amb. Eric Edelman Hon. Franklin C. Miller Mr. Fritz Ermarth Senator Charles Robb Dr. Gary L. Geipel Dr. Bradley Roberts Dr. Colin S. Gray Mr. Guy Roberts Mr. Kurt Guthe Mr. Thomas Scheber Dr. John Harvey Dr. Mark Schneider Ms. Rebeccah Heinrichs Dr. William Schneider Amb. Robert Joseph Gen Larry Welch, USAF (ret) Dr. Thomas Karako A New Nuclear Review for a New Age April 2017 © National Institute Press, 2017 For additional information about this publication or other publications by the National Institute Press, contact: Editor, National Institute Press, 9302 Lee Highway, Suite 750 Fairfax, VA 22031 (703) 293- 9181 www.nipp.org. © National Institute Press, 2017 A New Nuclear Review for a New Age Table of Contents Participants Preface Section I. Executive Summary ................................................................................... 1 Section II. Security Environment ............................................................................... 19 Section III. Purposes for US Nuclear Capabilities ..................................................... 41 Section IV. Adaptability and Required Characteristics: US Nuclear Forces and Posture .................................................................................................... 59 Section V. Considering Nuclear Force Size: How Much is Enough? ........................ 69 Section VI. An Assessment of Present and Planned US Nuclear Forces .................. 79 Section VII. Missile Defense: Critical Element of US and Allied Security ................. 141 Section VIII. Adapting Western Policies and Capabilities for the NATO Region ........ 157 Section IX. Adapting US Policies and Capabilities for Asian Security ...................... 175 Section X. The Affordability of Nuclear Deterrence ................................................. 185 Section XI. Declaratory Policy .................................................................................. 199 Section XII. Arms Control and US Goals in the New Threat Environment Context ... 207 Appendix A. Sources for Tables 1 through 4 (Section VI) ........................................... A-1 Appendix B. Summaries of the 1994, 2001, and 2010 Nuclear Posture Reviews ....... B-1 This report is based on extensive research and entirely open sources. Each section is heavily referenced, as appropriate, and Appendix A includes full references for the detailed Tables 1 through 4 appearing in Section VI. Participants Dr. Keith B. Payne Dr. John S. Foster, Jr. Study Director, Contributing Author and Chairman, Senior Review Group Senior Reviewer Dr. Kathleen Bailey, Senior Reviewer, Senior Associate, National Institute for Public Policy; former Assistant Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency; Deputy Assistant Secretary of State (Bureau of Intelligence and Research) Gen Kevin Chilton, USAF (ret), Senior Reviewer, former Commander, US Strategic Command; Commander, Air Force Space Command Mr. Elbridge Colby, Contributing Author, Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security. He previously served in the Department of Defense and on the staffs of a number of government commissions on strategic, defense, and nuclear weapons issues Mr. Matthew Costlow, Contributing Author, Ph.D. student; Analyst, National Institute for Public Policy; graduate, Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University Dr. J.D. Crouch II, Senior Reviewer, served in the administration of President George W. Bush as Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor, US Ambassador to Romania, and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy Ms. Michaela Dodge, Contributing Author, Ph.D. student; Senior Policy Analyst for Defense and Strategic Issues, The Heritage Foundation; graduate, Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University Amb. Eric Edelman, Senior Reviewer, Distinguished Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy; US Ambassador to Turkey; US Ambassador to the Republic of Finland; Principal Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs Mr. Fritz Ermarth, Senior Reviewer, former Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and staff of the National Security Council during the Carter and Reagan Administrations Dr. John S. Foster, Jr., Chairman, Senior Review Group, former Director of Defense Research and Engineering, Department of Defense; Director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Dr. Gary L. Geipel, Contributing Author, Senior Associate, National Institute for Public Policy; former Director of Research, Hudson Institute The Contributing Authors are responsible for their views as expressed in their respective contributions to this report; these views do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Institute for Public Policy, the Department of Defense, or any institution with which the contributing authors are affiliated. Senior Reviewers provided their comments on drafts of this report and may not be in agreement with each of its points or precise wording. Dr. Colin S. Gray, Senior Reviewer, Professor Emeritus, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Reading; European Director, National Institute for Public Policy Mr. Kurt Guthe, Contributing Author, Director of Strategic Studies, National Institute for Public Policy Dr. John Harvey, Contributing Author and Senior Reviewer, former Principal Deputy Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs Ms. Rebeccah Heinrichs, Contributing Author, National Security Fellow, specializing in missile defense and nuclear deterrence, Hudson Institute; former Military Legislative Assistant to Member of the House Armed Services Committee Amb. Robert Joseph, Senior Reviewer, Senior Scholar, National Institute for Public Policy; former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security; Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Proliferation Strategy, Counterproliferation and Homeland Defense, National Security Council Dr. Thomas Karako, Contributing Author, Senior Fellow, International Security Program, and Director, Missile Defense Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Assistant Professor, Kenyon College Gen C. Robert Kehler, USAF (ret), Senior Reviewer, former Commander, US Strategic Command; Commander, Air Force Space Command Dr. Susan Koch, Contributing Author and Senior Reviewer, former Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security; Director of Proliferation Strategy, National Security Council Dr. Matthew Kroenig, Contributing Author, Associate Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Senior Fellow, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council; former Special Advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense Senator Jon Kyl, Senior Reviewer, former US Senator representing Arizona, Senate Minority Whip; Senior of Counsel, Covington & Burling; Visiting Scholar, American Enterprise Institute Dr. Steven Lambakis, Senior Reviewer, Director of Space Studies, National Institute for Public Policy; Managing Editor, Comparative Strategy ADM Richard Mies, USN (ret), Senior Reviewer, former Commander in Chief, US Strategic Command Hon. Franklin C. Miller, Senior Reviewer, Principal, Scowcroft Group; former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush; Senior Director for Defense Policy and Arms Control, National Security Council; former senior OSD/Policy official for over two decades The Contributing Authors are responsible for their views as expressed in their respective contributions to this report; these views do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Institute for Public Policy, the Department of Defense, or any institution with which the contributing authors are affiliated. Senior Reviewers provided their comments on drafts of this report and may not be in agreement with each of its points or precise wording. Dr. Keith B. Payne, Study Director, Contributing Author and Senior Reviewer, President, National Institute for Public Policy; Head, Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University; former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Senator Charles Robb, Senior Reviewer, former Governor of Virginia; US Senator representing Virginia; Co-Chair, Commission on Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction Dr. Bradley Roberts, Contributing Author and Senior Reviewer, Director of the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy Mr. Guy Roberts, Contributing Author, former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy and Director for Nuclear Policy, NATO Mr. Thomas Scheber, Contributing Author, Vice President, National Institute for Public Policy; former Director of Strike Policy and Integration,
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